Alexandra Castro. Theory of Change

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A structured method for creating sustainable change

THE THEORY OF CHANGE


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To introduce the basics of the Theory of Change

To understand the logic of the method

To understand the practicality of the ToC

To identify the most important elements of the ToC by working in teams on a case

study

OBJECTIVES OF THE WORKSHOP

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The Theory of Change is a logical tool for developing solutions to complexsocial problems.

The ToC is a tool to help projects setting goals, plan strategically and evaluateresults.

A basic ToC explains how a group of early and intermediate accomplishmentssets the stage for producing long-term goals. (Chain results)

It shows how a logical process of activities lead to impact.

Helps you visualize the objective an structure of your project.

The ToC is a graphic representation of the expected social change.

THE THEORY OF CHANGE

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Creating impact

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Problem Solution Impact


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Theory of Change

All resources

whether capital

or human ,

invested on the

activities of the

organization

The concrete

actions, tasks

and work

carried out by

the

organization to

create its

outputs andoutcomes

Tangible

products and

services that

result from the

organizations

activities

The long

term goal

the project

is trying to

contribute

to

The changes,

benefits,

learnings or

other effects

both

intermediate

and shortterm that

result from

the

organizations

activities

LongTerm Goal

OutcomeOutputs/Results

KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Theory of Change

Staff

Volunteers

Facilities

Equipment

Money

Expertise

Method

Long TermGoal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Theory of Change

Staff

Volunteers

Facilities

Equipment

Money

Expertise

Method

Feed & shelter

homeless

families

Provide job

training

Mentor youth

Advertisement

Campaigns

Youth Camps

Child

Vaccination

Long TermGoal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Theory of Change

Staff

Volunteers

Facilities

Equipment

Money

Expertise

Method

Feed & shelter

homeless

families

Provide job

training

Mentor youth

Advertisement

Campaigns

Youth Camps

Child

Vaccination

Number of

meals

served

Number of

counseling

sessions

done

Number of

youth

mentored

Number of

Teenage

participants

Long TermGoalOutcome

Outputs/Results

KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Theory of Change

Staff

Volunteers

Facilities

Equipment

Money

Expertise

Method

Feed & shelter

homeless

families

Provide job

training

Mentor youth

Advertisement

Campaigns

Youth Camps

Child

Vaccination

New

knowledge

Increased

skills

Changed

attitudes or

values

New status

Increased

access to

public services

Number of

meals

served

Number of

counseling

sessions

done

Number of

youth

mentored

Number of

Teenage

participants

LongTerm Goal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Theory of Change

Staff

Volunteers

Facilities

Equipment

Money

Expertise

Method

Feed & shelter

homeless

families

Provide job

training

Mentor youth

Advertisement

Campaigns

Youth Camps

Child

Vaccination

New

knowledge

Increased

skills

Changed

attitudes or

values

New status

Increased

access to

public

services

Number of

meals served

Number of

counseling

sessions done

Number of

youth mentored

Number of

Teenage

participants

Eliminate poverty/

Malnutrition

Increase

employment

Eliminate Taboos

Improve HealthConditions

LongTerm Goal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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Measurable evidence of meeting a goal.

Measure the intermediate changes as a result of the project or programme activities.

Monitoring outcomes tells us if activities are bringing about the intended intermediate changes.

The selection of the indicators will depend on the resources of the project and the possibility to

collect the necessary data

They have to be SMART Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time Bound

1. Who ? (fifth graders in Harrison County)

2. How many? (fifth graders in the target schools)

3. How much? (improve reading scores by 20% or more)

4. When ? (by December 2012)

OutcomeOutcome

Indicators


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The particular meaning of assumptions in this case is those conditions in

the arena or environment in which the initiative will take place which are

important to recognize and which must hold true for the theory to be

realized.

These conditions are assumed to already exist and to continue to exist

during the life of the initiative.

Ex: Economic Conditions

Persistent interest of Stakeholders

The social needs identify in the problem

Assumptions OUTCOME


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THEORY OF CHANGE

Identifying the Problem

Problem: 700 children infected with HIV daily in Africa

Health Problem affecting all countries in Africa (Statistics)

Causes: -Understaff hospitals in Africa that do not have time to provide mothe

with the right information

-HIV taboos in the population

Target Population: HIV positive mothers

LongTermGoal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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LongTermGoal


KeyActivities

Input:resources

Medical

Expertise

Mentoring

scheme totest

Training for

mentors

Local

Awareness

campaign

Organize chain

of medical

support in

hospitals

Number of

mentors

trained

Number of

people

reached by

the campaign

Mentor scheme

in place

To empower

HIV positivemothers to

protect their

children and

families from

being

infected byIHV

Improve

health of

HIV+mothers and

their families

Eliminate

HIV Stigma

Eliminate

pediatric HIV

by 2016

THEORY OF CHANGEProblem: 700 children infected daily with HIV in Africa. Health Care centers in Africa are

understaff, dont have time to keep HIV positive mothers informed. Stigma against HIV women

Number of HIV

positive mothers

reached


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To empower HIV

positive mothers to

protect their children

and families to be

infected by HIV

10% of HIV positive mothers

employed as mentors

90% of HIV mothers

empowered

50% of people reached throughthe campaign who have

changed their attitudes towards

HIV mothers

OutcomeOutcome

Indicators


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10% of HIV positive

mothers employed as

mentors

90% of HIV mothers

empowered

50% of people reached

through the campaign whohave changed their

attitudes towards HIV

mothers

SMART

Who will be impacted?

How many will be impacted?

How much will be impacted?

How would it be impacted?

When will be impacted?

Outcome

Indicators


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To empower HIVpositive mothers to

protect their children

and families to be

infected by HIV

Health Centers need staff

HIV positive mothersunemployed

HIV mothers care about their

childrenshealth

Health staff can provide training

Assumptions


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Why is ToC Important?

1. Accountability2. Set up expectations with stakeholders

3. Strategic Planning

4. Monitoring and Evaluation

5. Learning

- Show and Justify how exactly are they planning to meet their goals and

agree on what would be considered success.

- To get the support and credibility of the communities and otherstakeholders involved

- To identify lessons learned and build capacity


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CASEPRESENTATION


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THEORY OF CHANGE

CASE 1

Identifying the Problem

Problem: 20% of women in Peru have been victims of domestic violence. According

to WHO 1 out 5 women in the world have been victims of violence at some point in

their lives

Causes:- Financial instability

- Long held patriarcal believes

- Low rate of reported cases- Weak legislation against perpetrators

Target Population: Women from 15 to 50 years old

LongTermGoal


KeyActivities

Input:resources


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LongTerm Goal


KeyActivities

Input:resources

Psycological

expertise

(staff)

Agreement

with

vocational

center toprovide

courses

Training in

vocational skills

Provide

counseling

sessions for

victims

Run akindergarten for

the participants

children

THEORY OF CHANGEProblem: 20% of women in Peru have been victims of domestic violence. According to WHO 1 out 5 women in th

world have been victims of violence at some point in their lives


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High job offers for non-traditional jobs, such as electrical, plumbing,

carpentry, provide better wages and more opportunities for upward mobilityand are more likely to have unions. Therefore, job stability and good

wages are more likely if women are trained in these areas.

Women are willing to stop domestic violence

Women need other support besides a job to end domestic violence

Assumptions


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Outcome

IndicatorsOutcome


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Theory of Change in Practice

Questions that your team will need to solve in order to develop a ToC

1. What is the social problem or issue the project is trying to solve?

- Nature and Magnitud of the problem

- Which populations are affectedTarget Population

- Whether the matter is changing or evolving

- Roots of the problem

- What is the long term goal?

2. What is the proposed solution?

What type of activities are proposed to try to achieve a change


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Theory of Change in Practice

3. What resources or inputs does the project need and have to undertake thisactivities?

Time, talent, technology, equipment, information, methodology and other assets

available to conduct the activities.

4. What are the expected outcomes?

Short and Intermediate goals

Change in behavior, increased skills, New attitude, new status

5. How can we measure the outcomes?

Identify indicators, realistic percentages, methods to collect data


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Thank you !Alexandra Castro

Global Impact Coodinator

[email protected]

Documents

Alexandra Castro. Theory of Change