Alberta Physician Workforce Planning 2014

Rollie Nichol MD, MBA

Associate Chief Medical Officer, AHSJanuary 8, 2014

2

Agenda

1. Introduction and Goal of interaction

2. Curiosity What do you want to know?

3. Goal of workforce planning

4. Alberta Process

5. Provincial PRPC

6. AHS Data

7. Summary

8. Questions/dialogue

3

Goal of Provincial Workforce Planning

1. Predict and define Demand Short and long term Scenarios

2. Predict and define endogenous supply Manage societal investment Collaborate with faculties Minimize “market asynchrony”

4

Alberta Process

1. Provincial PRPC (Physician Resource Planning Committee) Episodic (past) Sustainable (current)

2. Alberta Health Services Service provider and recruiter (appointed docs)

3. Faculties Curriculum, training and recruiting

5

PRPC

1. Provincial perspective

2. Multi- stakeholder

3. Policy level

4. Government funder of training programs

5. 2 software planning tools Family physician (AH) Specialist (AHS)

6. Alignment with Non-MD Workforce and Capital Planning

6

Practitioner Workforce Planning in Alberta

Medical School Enrolment

Residents Training in Alberta

Academic & Clinical Training

Alberta Trained Undergrads Training elsewhere

Community Practice

Specialist Practice

RuralPractice

Remote AreaPractice

IMG Practice Entry

College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta

University of Alberta & University of Calgary Alberta

Medical Association

Nursing and Allied Health Providers

Government of Alberta

Royal College of Physician and Surgeons Canada

CMA

Rural Physician Action Plan

Municipalities

Alberta Health

Services

PARA

7

AHS Data

8

Family Medicine Physicians Specialists

RegionTotal 2012

Physicians per 100,000 Population

Average Age

Percentage Female

Percentage Canadian Trained

Total 2012

Physicians per 100,000 Population

Average Age

Percentage Female

Percentage Canadian Trained

Alberta 4326 112 48.5 40.3% 60.6% 4204 48.3 48.3 30.2% 74.8%

Canada 38156 109 50.1 42.4% 72.9% 36986 50.8 50.8 32.2% 77.3%

2012 Alberta Physician Demographics

Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012

9

Recent Recruiting Experience

  30-Sep-12 30-Sep-13 Net Change

South Zone 476 484 8

Calgary Zone 3578 3815 237

Central Zone 600 620 20

Edmonton Zone 3260 3379 119

North Zone 464 471 7

       

Alberta 8378 8769 391

10

3 Year Projection

TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone (2013-2016)

Department Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES

Addictions and Mental Health 83.0

Anesthesia 25.0

Cardiac Sciences 22.0

Clinical Neurosciences 36.0

Critical Care Medicine 15.0

Diagnostic Imaging 31.0

Emergency Medicine 88.0

Family Medicine 421.5Family Medicine with Special Skills (eg Anesthesia, Obstetrics, Surgery) 18.0

11

3 Year Projection

TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone (2013-2016)

Department Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES

Medicine/Internal Medicine 119.0

Obstetrics & Gynecology/ Women's Health 22.0

Oncology 29.0

Pathology and Laboratory Medicine 39.0

Pediatrics/Child Health 70.0

Rural Medicine 76.0

Surgery 135.0

TOTAL 1229.5

12

Summary

1. We need better forecasting methodologies

2. We need to be better at planning Accounting for changes in technology, service

planning, societal needs

3. We need to give better information to you but this is only one, albeit significant, factor in your decision process

13

Dilbert

14

LINKS

http://www.albertaphysicianlink.ab.ca/physician-jobs.html

http://www.doctorjobsalberta.com/

http://www.cma.ca/c3pr-specialties

http://www.cair.ca/en/tips/

15

Final Slide

1. Review questions posed at beginning

2. Any other questions/ comments/ curious thoughts

16

Family Medicine Physicians Specialists

RegionTotal 2012

Physicians per 100,000 Population

Average Age

Percentage Female

Percentage Canadian Trained

Total 2012

Physicians per 100,000 Population

Average Age

Percentage Female

Percentage Canadian Trained

Calgary Zone 1747 120 48.6 49.1% 66.7% 1867 128 48 32.9% 79.8%

Central Zone 428 92 50 25.0% 42.1% 166 36 50.1 19.3% 66.3%Edmonton Zone 1468 120 48.6 39.5% 65.1% 1875 153 48.2 30.1% 73.6%

North Zone 377 85 47 27.3% 33.1% 101 23 49 20.8% 43.6%

South Zone 287 100 47.8 30.3% 64.8% 186 65 52.3 16.7% 61.6%

Unknown 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Alberta 4326 112 48.5 40.3% 60.6% 4204 48.3 48.3 30.2% 74.8%

Canada 38156 109 50.1 42.4% 72.9% 36986 50.8 50.8 32.2% 77.3%

2012 Alberta Physician Demographics

Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012

17

Specialist Forecasting Tool (Need)

18

Specialist Forecasting Tool (Supply)