Alberta-Growth, Energy, Climate Change

8/17/2019 Alberta-Growth, Energy, Climate Change

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OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

• In 2004 India was shining; then government lost eletions! "sing that slogan

• #onomi f"ndamentals$%real% eonomy$errati ind"stry and wea& Agri"lt"re!'oor infrastr"t"re! e(essive s"bsidies! 'oor soial se"rity administrativeina'ability to s'end effiiently on any 'rogrammes! high defiits! volatileforeign f"nds

• )lobal meltdown of 200*$layoffs and slower growth in 200*! 200+

• ,ast domesti mar&et! h"ge 'otential mar&et of the -oor! yo"ng and ambitio"s'o'"lation! immense tehnologial and managerial a'ability

• Large 'art of 'o'"lation not served by ommerial energy

• .a/or f"el is and will be oal

• India%s e(em'lary energy effiieny and emissions reord


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The Past Ten Years And NowThe Past Ten Years And Now

• )- growth3 rom 5++*$++$678! 675! 474! 87*! 470! *78! 978! +78!+79:; 200*$0+ 975< =ew year$8<

• Ind"strial 'rod"tion negative growth e 0*! >an 0+7

• ?igh and Rising Savings rate

•Rise in a'ital formation #s'7 -rivate Setor

• ee'ening #('ort

• Inflation at single digit for a deade; 979 last year! 472 in e2008; des'ite f"el! 'ower! light @ l"briants at 975; from 01$04$*75!01$04$+7*; Rising in 2009$0*! =ov 200*$ 97*; =ow almost Bero

• #('ort growth trends; 05$02 onwards3 2275! 5870! 2574! 2976 @ in0*$0+ now dro' of 20

• Ra'id growth of I7C7 and D7-7O7

• Resiliene3 S"rvived fae$off with USA and santions after n"leare('losions


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India- A Fast Growing EconomyIndia- A Fast Growing Economy

with Greater Potentialwith Greater Potential

• o!ile "sers - #$%&% million '(an %))*+, )& illion new mo!ile.sers in last ) months, growth contin.es

• Internet connecti/ity in %)) -%)) million, still growing

• 0&%0 mn !road!and connections '1ec %))2+, growing

• 0&3 million P45s sold in %))$, slowing down

• 4ars6 e78ected #)9 growth 8&a&, Will rise again with NANO• %))-o/er *3 mn ca!le : satellite ho.seholds

• Ad/ertising ind.stry at Rs3))) crores;ones? edia

• Agric.lt.re %)9 o@ G1P? 8oor 8rod.cti/ity? declining 8.!lic

in/estment? too many 8oorly targeted s.!sidies,• Wea [email protected]? Roads? etc

• =ocial [email protected]? Ed.cation? etc

• Poor 1eli/ery systems


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1emogra8hic 1i/idend1emogra8hic 1i/idend

• 2004$-o'"lation E50*0 million of whih

• Age between 58 and 64E692 million

• Delow 58 and over 64! non$wor&ing or de'endent

'o'"lationE40* million

• e'endeny ratio of 076; 2010$074

• 2020 Average Age3 India$2+; hina$19; >a'an$4*3

yo"ngest wor&ing age 'o'"lation in world

• Less hildrenEmore women at wor&; more saving;greater growth


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%))* - acro Economy Indicators%))* - acro Economy Indicators

• alling )- growth foreasts; 200+$50$ 8


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WeaWea Agric.lt.reAgric.lt.re

• S"''orts 60 of 'o'"lation

• Agri"lt"re was 12 of )- in +2$+1; 59 in 200*$0+ HA#

• Agri"lt"re growth or deline has diret effet on )-; +9 )- J97* Agri"lt"re J*7*; 04$ *78 @ A$+!1

• Stati rie! errati wheat! 'rod"tion3

• 0* 09 06 08 00 +5 *5 Hmn t

• R +6 +1 +2 *1 *8 94 84

• K 9* 96 6+ 6+ 90 88 16

• Land availability limited3 Sine 5+*0 ro' area for food grains statiat aro"nd 524 mn hetares

• Cotal Investment in Agri"lt"re falling in 5++0s as to )- from57+2 in +0$+5; 57*1 in ++$00; 2006$09$ 271


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Wea Agric.lt.re-%Wea Agric.lt.re-%

• all is in '"bli investment; 'rivate &ee's rising; f"nds for '"bliinvestment diverted to 'oorly targeted s"bsidiesHwater! 'ower!fertiliBer

• -rod"tivity levels are low3 Gield 500&gF?A; India and hina in20063 'addy 15724 @ 62768; wheat 2675+ @ 44788; otton 670 @ 1171;

g7n"t *76 @ 1572! s7ane 66+74 @*28728• -oor 'oliies eno"raging "ns"itable ro's3 free eletriity; minim"m

s"''ort and 'ro"rement 'ries same; ann"al 'rie inreases; nogro"nd water 'oliy; free 'ower to agri"lt"re60 'o'"lation liveson agri"lt"re

• In downt"rn! om'anies t"rning to r"ral mar&ets! with new .ar&etingmethods

• ?"ge 'otential as diversifiation 'rogresses


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Wea [email protected] [email protected]

• =on$im'lementation of integrated energy 'oliy;no oordination between eletriity! oal and gas

• )overnment ownershi' of #letriity distrib"tion!oal

• )overnment im'lementation 'oor on Roads• Infrastr"t"re reg"lationFim'lementation awaiting

overha"l

• State ownershi'$ high ineffiieny! slow deision$

ma&ing! orr"'tion! delays• ederal onstit"tion; states at loggerheads with

entre; need for oordination


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Trends o@ B.man 1e/elo8ment IndicatorsTrends o@ B.man 1e/elo8ment Indicators

in India @romin India @rom

*0 to ***-%))#*0 to ***-%))#

Trends o@ B.man 1e/elo8ment Indicators

#%&%C&3

3$

$%&C

C&$

02$3&2

2

)

%)

3)

$)

2)

))

%)

3)

$)

Di@e E78ectancy at !irth

'Years+

1eath Rate In@ant ortality Rate Diteracy Rate '9+

*0

*$

*C

*2

**

**$

***-%))#


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B1I indicatorsB1I indicators

Im'rovement on all fronts; others have fared m"h better

?I Ran& o"t of 594; Sri Lan&a *+; hina +6; Indonesia 550; India524; -a&istan 54*

India3 J60 'o'"lation in millions$2005$671E68; 2056$*7+E551

• $Age 58$8+ 2005$8+*mn; 2056$*55mn• $UrbaniBation3 2005$297*; 2010$80<• $Iss"es3 Livelihoods! health! ed"ation! ho"sing! water!

roads! sanitation! soial se"rity! law and order • -oor '"bli health and im'ortant reason for low ?I


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4.rrent Economic 4risis64.rrent Economic 4risis6

Not .st an im8orted 8henomenonNot .st an im8orted 8henomenon

& Rising de@icits-not shown !y 4entre in .dgets-Oil onds? F4I!onds? Fertilier !onds? Farmer Doan write-o@@s? etc

%& P.tting Growth o/er in@lation control

#& 1es8eration to add to Foreign E7change Reser/es

• Partici8atory Notes and ro.nd-tri88ing o@ Indian @.nds

• E7em8tion @rom short-term ca8ital gains ta7, a.riti.sas largest @oreign in/estor, Very /olatile FII @.nds-stoc

maret lie yo-yo as @.nds e!!ed and @lowed

3& Power shortages, many not connected


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DiH.idity and Falling R.8eeDiH.idity and Falling R.8ee

• aning meltdown in "=A worsened sit.ation

• FII5s? @oreign !ans withdrew to s.88ort liH.idity intheir B

• =toc marets colla8sed-=EN=EJ @rom %))) toalmost 2)))

• R.8ee colla8sed-in months @rom Rs #2 to < to Rs 0)

• O/erseas !orrowing mared to maret-.8set !alancesheets o@ Indian com8anies and

• P : D as interest costs shown in R.8ees

• Energy in/estment a@@ected ad/ersely


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Poor Im8lementation-Poor Im8lementation-

Dac o@ !asic Administrati/e Re@ormDac o@ !asic Administrati/e Re@orm

• Go/ernment has !een /ery ine@@icient in its e78endit.res, mores.!sidies than asset !.ilding

• =imilarly P.!lic 1istri!.tion =ystem-e&g& @ood grains? s.gar?edi!le oils? chea8 erosene,

• Other s.!sidies 8oorly targeted? 8hysical handling and

ine@@iciencies-@ertiliers? @ree or chea8 8ower to agric.lt.re,• =ocial Programmes- NBR? ==A-not e@@icient in s8ending

honestly& NREG sho.ld ha/e added to 8.rchasing 8ower !.t withestimates ranging @rom 3) 9 to $)9 wasted and leaage? itse@@ect has !een red.ced&

• "ns8ent @.nds in most 8rogrammes

• [email protected] s8ending is also slow? eg&? NBAI&

• any 8roects delayed d.e too many inistries? lac o@coordination? non-acco.nta!ility o@ !.rea.cracy


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India5s PotentialIndia5s Potential

& World5s Dargest Pool o@ Trained an8ower6• %)) million college grad.ates 'K$9+• 0)) million trained? silled wor@orce 'K3)9+• "ni/ersal Diteracy

%& World5s Deaders in Ind.stry and 4ommerce• #) o@ Fort.ne• )) @rom India

#& India Acco.nts @or ) 9 o@ World TradeA !road sco8e o@ 8rod.cts and ser/ices

3& India as a =o.rce o@ Glo!al Inno/ations New .sinesses?New Forms o@ Organiation? New Technologies


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India5s PotentialIndia5s Potential

0& Foc.s on the ottom o@ the Pyramid as a• =o.rce o@ Inno/ations @or the World• 'Deaders in Bealth? Ed.cation? Energy? Trans8ortation?

=.staina!le 1e/elo8ment @or all+• arets

$& A Flowering o@ Art? Diterat.re? Films and =cience' ) No!el Prie Winners @rom India+

C& A New oral Voice @or Peo8le Aro.nd the World India as aco.ntry where "ni/ersality and Incl.si/eness is widely

8racticed& India !ecomes the most enchmared co.ntry @or itsca8acity to acce8t and !ene@it @rom its di/ersity

TO IPROVE DIFE OF ANY? : A4BIEVE IT= POTENTIAD? IN1IA NEE1=4ON=I=TENT BIGB E4ONOI4 GROWTB AN1 ENERGY ="PPDIE=


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#nergy ons"m'tion#nergy ons"m'tion

• India has lowest energy ons"m'tion

today

• #ven with * ann"al growth till 2010 India

will not ath "' with most others

• oal will be the most im'ortant energy

so"re

• Kith lower alorifi ontent! eletriity

"sing Indian oal will be m"h more


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Per ca8ita Energy cons.m8tionPer ca8ita Energy cons.m8tion

!y 4o.ntries!y 4o.ntries

TPE='goe+

Electricity4ons.m8tion

'wh+

Oil'goe+

Gas'4.&m&+

4oal'Lg+

N.clear'Wh+

Bydro'Wh+

India %))#-)3 41+ 881 555 10289:H198 56 6+

India %)#-#%'8roected M 29

G1P growth+ 5280 2495 115 54++28:

H51** 286 291

World A/erage'%))#+ 56** 242+ 618 81* 940 401 421

OE41 '%))#+ 466* *044 20++ 5544 5685 5+24 5096

"&=&A& '%))#+ 9*40 51066 1426 2596 1450 2624 +4*4hina '%))#+ 50+0 519+ 251 12 5091 12 258

=o.th Lorea '%))#+ 4292 9009 2264 629 5845 2890 505

(a8an '%))#+ 4086 9*56 2546 *48 5249 5*8+ *56

: -er a'ita oal ons"m'tion of India has been estimated based on the alorifi val"e of hard oal "sed internationally H6000 &alF&g to maintain"niformity7 Che fig"res in bra&ets are the at"al 'er a'ita ons"m'tion based on Indian oal with a alorifi val"e of 4000 &alF&g7

Source: Integrated Energy Policy : Report of the Expert Committee Pg No 32


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India has low 4O% emissionsIndia has low 4O% emissions

'4O% eH.i/alent emissions-mmt+'4O% eH.i/alent emissions-mmt+**) %))) 4AGR 9

R.ssia #%)2 2## -#

Germany %3$ )* -%

"&L& C#2 $3) -

(a8an )# %*C %

"=A 0)2) $%)* %

India *22 320 3

4hina #2#C 32%) 0

rail 2) 3CC $


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in #nergy S"''ly @in #nergy S"''ly @

Infrastr"t"reInfrastr"t"re

InvestmentHbillion dollars

2005$2050 2055$2020 2025$2010 2005$2010

Cotal "rrenyInvestment

592 249 149 966

Source: International Energy Agency


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4onstraints4onstraints

With .st 39 o@ glo!al GBG emissions? India .nder 8ress.re to c.r!@ossil @.el cons.m8tionIndia m.st @ind ways to deco.8le growth in G1P and @ossil @.el @orenergy? !.t ens.re .ni/ersal li@eline access

• Primary Energy in million tonnes %))0-)$ %)# -#%• Oil eH.i/alent 0# 0#$ to

22C• O@ which? Non-commercial %29• 4oal #29• Oil : Gas 29• Bydro : N.clear %$9


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The .rden o@ Traditional F.els in R.ral IndiaThe .rden o@ Traditional F.els in R.ral India

=t.dy !ased on an integrated s.r/ey o@ 0?%*# r.ral ho.seholds @rom 32 /illages in threestates o@ r.ral North India and one state in =o.th India& =ym8toms o@ diseases related to airand water 8oll.tion? e78endit.re on health and 8erson days lost? demogra8hic and socio-economic in@ormation? meas.rements o@ air H.ality in the itchen? o.tside the itchen and thehome were collected& Indicators @or res8iratory @.nctions 'Pea E78iratory Flow+ weremeas.red @or most ad.lts 8resent& The doctors e7amined a s.!-sam8le o@ indi/id.als @orcon@irmation o@ diseases&The st.dy estimated that

• *$9 o@ ho.seholds .se !iomass energy? 9 .se erosene and 09 .se DPG @or cooing&ost o@ them .se m.lti8le @.els&

• Forests contri!.te #* 9 o@ the @.el wood need&

• #3 t o@ [email protected] are gathered ann.ally&• 20 million ho.seholds s8end #) !illion ho.rs ann.ally in @.el wood gathering&• Res8iratory sym8toms are 8re/alent among %3 million ad.lts o@ which C million ha/e

serio.s sym8toms&• 09 o@ ad.lts s.@@er @rom ronchial asthma? $9 @rom ronchitis? 2&%9 @rom P.lmonary T

and C9 @rom 4hest in@ection&• Ris o@ contracting res8iratory diseases and eye diseases increase with longer d.ration o@

.se o@ [email protected]&

Total economic !.rden o@ dirty !iomass @.el estimated at Rs&%** !illion '


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odel Res.lts-odel Res.lts-

4ommercial energy reH.irements4ommercial energy reH.irements

• DAU$from 1+5 .CO# in 06$09 to 2521 in 2015$12!of whih oal rises from 5+1 to 5596

• ?ybrid$from 1+5 to 5801 in 2015$12 with oal from

5+1 to 969

• #nergy intensity in DAU senario falls from 07022&goe 'er R"'ee of )- in 2005 to 07059 in 2015 fallof 21

• In ?ybrid$from 07022 to 07052! fall of 2+


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-ro/eted ommerial -rimary #nergy Re"irements-ro/eted ommerial -rimary #nergy Re"irements

Proections @or Electricity ReH.irements 'ased on Falling Elasticities +

Total EnergyReH.irement

Energy ReH.ired at.s ar

M G1PGrowth Rate

M G1PGrowth

Rate M G1P Growth Rate M G1P Growth

Rate

29 *9 29 *9 29 *9 29 *9

%))#-)3 $## $## 0*% 0*% 2* 2* # #%))$-)C C$ CC3 C% C%3 )C )* 0# 00

%)-% )*C $C )%$ )* 02 $2 %%) %##

%)$-C 0%3 $2C 3%0 0CC %%$ %0) #)$ ##C

%)%-%% %2 %3#2 *2) %%2) #%# #C% 3%0 322

%)%$-%C %2$$ #3%# %$2) #%) 3#C 0%% 0C0 $20%)#-#% #22) 32)$ #$%2 33*# 0*% C## CC2 *$)

=ote3 #letriity generation and 'ea& demand in 2001$04 is the total of "tilities and non$"tilities above 5 .K siBe7 #nergy demand at b"s bar is=ote3 #letriity generation and 'ea& demand in 2001$04 is the total of "tilities and non$"tilities above 5 .K siBe7 #nergy demand at b"s bar is

estimated ass"ming 678 a"(iliary ons"m'tion7 -ea& demand is estimated ass"ming system load fator of 96 "' to 2050! 94 for 2055$52 toestimated ass"ming 678 a"(iliary ons"m'tion7 -ea& demand is estimated ass"ming system load fator of 96 "' to 2050! 94 for 2055$52 to

2058$56! 92 for 2056$59 to 2020$25 and 90 for 2025$22 and beyond7 Che installed a'aity has been estimated &ee'ing the ratio between total2058$56! 92 for 2056$59 to 2020$25 and 90 for 2025$22 and beyond7 Che installed a'aity has been estimated &ee'ing the ratio between total

installed a'aity and total energy re"ired onstant at the 2001$04 level7 Chis ass"mes o'timal "tiliBation of reso"res bringing down the ratioinstalled a'aity and total energy re"ired onstant at the 2001$04 level7 Chis ass"mes o'timal "tiliBation of reso"res bringing down the ratio

between installed a'aity re"ired to 'ea& demand from 5749 in 2001$04 to 5715 in 2015$127 Integrated #nergy -oliy 3 Re'ort of the #('ertbetween installed a'aity re"ired to 'ea& demand from 5749 in 2001$04 to 5715 in 2015$127 Integrated #nergy -oliy 3 Re'ort of the #('ert

ommittee -g =o 20ommittee -g =o 20


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#nergy effiieny#nergy effiieny• Ratio o@ Total Primary energy 4ons.m8tion to G1P in

PPP terms-%))06• India )&0,4hina )&%%,"=A )&%, R.ssia )&3C

• India has shown in %))-)$ least energy cons.m8tiongrowth to G1P growth6 A/ G1P 29 8&a& : #&C9 ann.alenergy cons.m8tion growth

• India5s 8o8.lation #?0 times "=A and # times E"%)? !.tG1P growth is do.!le with lower a!sol.te incrementalcons.m8tion o@ @ossil @.els

• 4hina grew @aster on incremental !asis, !.t in a!sol.teterms? since %))%? it cons.med o/er * times @ossil @.el

com8ared to E"%)? ) times o@ "=A? and times India• India has achie/ed this res.lt !y denying modern

commercial @.els to o/er hal@ its 8o8.lation


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Energy E@@iciency m.st im8ro/eEnergy E@@iciency m.st im8ro/e

@.rther in [email protected] in India• Indian energy intensity is E>a'an @ DraBil

• Delow U7M7 at 0754! enmar&$0752

• India an im'rove energy effiieny by at least 20based on "rrently available tehnologies

• an im'rove es'eially in some ind"stries! b"ildings!

trans'ort!


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F.el 'T+ %)))% %)#$#C

4oing coal %C 0)Non-coing coal %** 00)

Dignite %0 0)

T - million tonnes

a7im.m /al.es o@ domestic coal

a/aila!ility-not eno.gh @or needs


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Year Area .nder 8lantation

'9+i--diesel

'million tonnes+

%))$ ) )&)

%) 0 %&)

%)$ ) #&*

%)% %0 *&2%)%$ C) %C&0

%)# *) #&*

%)#$ )) #0&3

Source: National Energy Ma !or In"ia: Tec#nology $i%ion &'(': )g*No* +

Estimates o@ !io-diesel 8rod.ction


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=o.rcetechnology "nitPotential

a/aila!ilityPotentiale78loited

Diogas 'lants .illion 52 1722

Diomass$based 'ower .K 5+800 1*4700

#ffiient wood stoves .illion 520 117*6

Solar energy .KF&m2 20 5794

Small hydro .K 58000 51+*700

Kind energy .K 48000 5169700

#nergy reovery fromwastes .K 5900 56720

Renewa!le energy so.rce 8otential


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Other E@@iciency eas.res : =o.rcesOther E@@iciency eas.res : =o.rces

-POWER-POWER

• 4lean 4oal can do.!le li@e o@ coal @rom 8resent 3)-30 years @rom

con/entional mining• 4oal !ed methane can do.!le gas reser/es• 4irc.lating Fl.idied ed 4om!.stion '4F4+ technology enhances

o8tions with low H.ality Indian coal and lignite• Integrated Gasi@ication 4om!ined 4ycle technology 'IG44+ with

im8orted coal can raise cons.m8tion e@@iciencies• N.clear energy• E78anded Bydrocar!on s.88ly o8tions in India and o/erseas• Integrated renewa!le energy 8olicy

• =olar cells in arid lands? deserts? mo.ntainto8s? home : /ehicleroo@s• aret re@orms-s.!sidies? @ree energy? e@@iciency o@ generation?

distri!.ted 8ower


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4O% Emissions Pro@ile4O% Emissions Pro@ile

=cenario %)) %) %)% %)#

DAU +59 5661 1112 9269

?ybrid +59 549+ 2441 4994=ector in

%)# A" BY

-ower 2*9+ 512+

Ind"stry 2*10 2850

Crans'ort 5199 98+

Others 5*5 596

Cotal 9269 4994

HIn million tonnes


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arriers to GBG itigationarriers to GBG itigation

POWERPOWER

• ?igh "'front a'ital ost 'er .K of -ower @hene tariffs! ross$s"bsidies

• La& of e('eriene and tehnial &now$how

in advane 'ower generation tehnologies

• I) not demonstrated ommerially for highash Indian oal

• La& of f"nds with states for R @ .• Renewables$high generation ost


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IN1"=TRYIN1"=TRY

• ement! iron @ steel! 'etrohemials! other

hemials im'roved

• -"l' @ -a'er! Ce(tiles! ertiliBers! et!

behind

• S.#%s$redit @ a'ital onstraints


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TRAN=PORTTRAN=PORT

• =eed for to"gh reg"latory standards$e!g! f"el

eonomy on a"to man"fat"rers

• ?"ge investments re"ired

• .RCS$ divert reso"res from other 'riorities;

@ no door$to door onnetivity

• =eed to hange lifestyles and individ"al

'referenes


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Reg.latory As8ects o@ GBG itigationReg.latory As8ects o@ GBG itigation

• EJI=TING6 -rogrammes for energy effiieny in ind"stry!a''lianes! b"ildings! m"nii'alities

• U.--$s"'erritial boilers

• reated D"rea" of #nergy #ffiieny

• =otified norms for vehile e(ha"st emissions from 2050

• .inim"m 50 by 2052 of total energy sales as R7#7

• RE"IRE16 Crading in ertified energy savings in e(ess ofmandated savings

• Inentives for #nergy effiieny$e7g7! differential ta(ation onertified energy effiient a''lianes

• inaning of energy effiieny thro"gh '"bli 'rivate'artnershi's

=.ggested Technology 1e8loyment Programme


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1+CBM – cool bed methane: CFL – compact fuorescent lamp, LED – light emitting diode;HDC – high !oltage direct current; H"C – high !oltage alternating current;#$CC – integrated glasi%cation combined c&cle; ' ( D – transmission and distribution) ( D – research and de!elo ment

Source: National Energy Ma !or In"ia: Tec#nology$i%ion &'(': )g*No* &'-

2006$55 2055$25 2025$15

Power generation technologies

Hydro power generation Commercialize IGCC Demonstration of commercial of

commercial scale thorium based

reactors demonstrated

Supercritical boilers/ultasupercritical

boilers

!ltrasupercritical boiler to be commercialized

"d#anced gas turbines $for e%ample& H

frame 'urbine(

)efineryresiduebased IGCC

Demonstration of commercial scale IGCC

plants using indigenous and imported coals

*ast breeder nuclear reactor

+nduse technologies

Cogeneration Stateoftheart industrial processes to beadopted

Stateoftheart industrialprocesses to be adopted

!se of waste reco#ery in industrial

processes

,ighting technologies- C*,& ,+D

+nergyefficient white goods refrigerators&

alternating current

' . D loss reduction- HDC& H"C& and

amorphous Core transformer

) . D in e%ploration and production of fuels

0atural gas from gas hydrates Insitu coal gasification to be

commercialized

0atural gas from from gas

hydrates to be commercialized

Insitu coal gasification Deepsea natural gas commercially

a#ailable

Deepsea natural gas

C12 C12 production to be commercialized

2ining of cool from seams greater than 344metres

Commercial mining of coal from seamsgreater than 344 metres


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THAN. /O0 THAN. /O0

Documents

Alberta-Growth, Energy, Climate Change