Albania:((Poised(For(Progress(

((

((!

Albanian!nationalists!re-used!the!double-headed!eagle!during!the!late!19th!and!early!20th!centuries!!as!a!symbol!of!their!campaign!for!their!country's!independence!from!the!Ottoman!Empire!in!(1912)!

!

((((

A(Security(Study(Prepared(By(

Stephanie)Morrison)((((((

Professor:((Dr.(Alexandra(Luce(November(18th,(2014(

!

INTEL(510(–Mercyhurst(University(Applied(Intelligence(Studies(

!

! 2!

) ) Albania)Security)Study)Table)of)Contents)

)))

)Executive)Summary)–)Overall)Estimate................................................................3((

•! Figure((1)(Map(of(Albania(•! Figure((2)(Prevalence(of(Bribery(

(Intelligence)Collection)Plan)(ICP)..........................................................................6((

•! ICP(Chart((Link)Analysis)–)Geography)...............................................................................)11)(

•! Link(Chart((Figure(3)((Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB)..................................................12((

•! Figure((4)(Albanian(Uniformed(Personnel(in(Peacekeeping(Missions(•! Figure((5(&(6)(IPB(Imagery(

(Analysis)of)Competing)Hypothesis)(ACH).............................................................17((

•! Figure((7)(Trade(Balance(Graphic(•! Figure((8)(ACH(Hypotheses(Inconsistencies((((

Contact)Page(.........................................................................................................(22))))Cover(graphic(source:(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Albania(( (

! 3!

Albania)Security)Study)(Executive)Summary:))(It)is)likely)Albania)will)continue)to)increase)its)stability)in)the)next)12)to)24)months.)European)Union)accession)(2009))and)candidacy)(2014))continue)to)be)stabilizing)factors)that)are)affecting)the)country)in)positive)ways.))Political)elections)(2013))have)swept)back)into)power)the)Socialist)party)and)their)political)will)and)efforts)to)reform)all)levels)of)government,)economy)and)the)environment)are)slow,)but)steadily)improving.))Albania’s)recognition)of)Kosovo’s)independence)and)statehood)causes)strained)relations)with)Serbia)creating)tension)in)the)Balkan)region,)but)recent)events)are)showing)signs)of)change.)Challenges)limiting)the)country’s)economic)growth)and)foreign)investment)are)a)poor)internal)infrastructure.))Poised)for)progress,)Albania)needs)to)minimize)negative)factors)that)hinder)EU)progression;)with)the)two)biggest)being)corruption)and)organized)crime.)))Discussion:)))(Albanian)NATO)membership)granted)in)2009)will)strengthen)NATO’s)security)presence)and)be)a)stabilizing)force)in)an)unstable)region.((NATO(ascension(is(a(sign(of(confidence(in(Albania’s(political(stability(and(popular(opinion(toward(U.S.(and(European(institutions.(NATO(ascension(is(widely(seen(as(a(milestone(on(the(road(to(European(Union((EU)(membership(–(the(most(important(step(a(country(can(take(toward(inclusion(in(the(family(of(Europe’s(stable,(liberal(democracies.(Albania(has(made(positive(political(and(economic(progress(in(recent(years,(but(is(at(least(10(years(away(from(full(EU(accession.1((

Politically,)Albania)has)made)progress)over)the)past)year.((Despite(a(tense(political(climate(to(the(general(elections(in(2013,(Albania(continued(its(efforts(on(reforms(in(all(areas(under(the(key(priorities.(The(function(of(Parliament(improved.(Transparency(of(the(legislative(process(and(involvement(of(civil(society(and(interest(groups(increased.(Government(continued(to(reiterate(its(commitment(to(EU(integration.(2(Albania(took(further(steps(towards(the(reform(of(the(judiciary.(The(government(has(shown(political(will(to(act(decisively(in(the(prevention(and(fight(against(corruption.(They(strengthened(the(legislative(framework,(which(improved(policy(coordination(at(a(central(level.(((

Figure'1:'Map'of'Albania

! 4!

Relationships)in)the)Balkan)region)are)mending.))Prime(Ministers(of(Albania,(Serbia(and(Kosovo(met(for(the(first(time(in(68(years(marking(a(desire(to(work(together(to(improve(ties(to(advance(in(their(bids(to(the(EU.3((Albania(and(Serbia(demonstrated(their(willingness(to(improve(bilateral(relations(by(taking(steps(towards(improving(the(rights(of(their(respective(national(minorities.(The(establishment(of(a(regular(air(link(between(Belgrade(and(Tirana(began(in(September.(Albania(and(Kosovo(signed(a(new(declaration(on(cooperation(and(strategic(partnership(aiming(to(boost(economic(growth.(Overall,(Albania(has(continued(to(act(as(a(constructive(partner(in(the(region,(further(developing(bilateral(relations(with(other(enlargement(countries(and(neighboring(EU(Member(States.(4((

Minimizing)risks)with)corruption)and)organized)crime)are)critical.)Albania(has(managed(to(establish(a(strong(legal(base,(which(as(recognized(The(Albanian(Criminal(Code(covers(all(types(of(corrupt(behavior((promising,(offering(or(giving(and(requesting,(receiving(or(accepting)(and(after(the(amendments(made(in(2004,(which(established(a(completely(new(system(of(corruption(offences,(meets(the(international(standards.5(Awareness(of(corruption(has(increased(and(businesses(rank(corruption(the(second(highest(issue,(after(high(taxes.(The(fight(against(organized(crime(shows(a(positive(trend(in(a(number(of(areas,(with(an(intensification(of(law(enforcement(activities,(notably(on(drug(seizures(and(drugarelated(crimes,(and(on(economic(crime(and(trafficking(of(human(beings.(6(

Comments:))This!report!has!been!created!from!large!amounts!of!open!resources!used!in!this!Executive!summary!and!country!stability!study!including!economic,!political,!military,!technology,!and!social!websites,!on-line!news!sources,!in-country!blogs,!web-based!and!local!newspaper!articles,!journals,!scholarly!databases,!government!websites,!and!research!centers.!!!Analyst!expertise!was!low!and!worked!alone;!however,!the!analyst!consulted!numerous!OSINT!sources;!used!several!structured!analytic!techniques,!including!ACH;!received!feedback!on!initial!drafts;!and!had!sufficient!time!to!complete!the!task.!This!estimate!product!attempts!to!convey!the!stability!of!the!Albanian!government!in!many!areas.!!Despite!the!numerous!sources!with!high!reliability!and!confidence,!this!estimate!is!not!a!complete!analysis!of!every!stabilizing!or!destabilizing!factor!for!the!nation.!!

Source(Reliability:(9/10(Analytic(Confidence:(8/10(

Figure'2:'Prevalence'of'Bribery)

! 5!

))!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1(http://www.cepa.org/content/issueabriefanoa102aalbaniasanatoamembership(2(http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2013/package/brochures/albania_2013.pdf(3(http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/usaserbiaaalbaniaakosovoaidUSKCN0IU16W20141110(4(http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008aalbaniaaprogressareport_en.pdf(5(http://www.againstcorruption.eu/uploads/norad/Albania.pdf(6(http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008aalbaniaaprogressareport_en.pdf(((Graphic(source:(http://albaniantourism.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/how_to_get_to_albania.gif?w=269((() )

! 6!

Intelligence)Collection)Plan)(ICP))Plan)Z)Albania)((

ID)Source)Name)

Type)of)Source)

Intel)Type) Periodicity) Purpose)

Report)w/in)Last)5)Years) Utility) Title)

Source)Rel.)

1(

Official(Journal(of(the(European(Union( Publication( OSINT( Frequent( Economic( Yes( Useful(

Legislation(that(covers(organizations(and(project(that(receive(public(money( 8(

2(The(New(York(Times(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( Daily( Economics( Yes( Useful(

Daily(current(worldly(events( 8(

3(The(Library(of(Congress(

Educational(Institution( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Database(with(resources(on(culture,(re:(Albania( 9(

4(

The(EconomistaIntelligence(Unit(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes( Useful(

Albanian(index(featuring(the(latest(news(updates.(Focus(on(politics(and(world(affairs( 8(

5(Trading(Economics(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes( Useful(

Albanian(statistics,(economics,(historical(charts( 7(

6(The(Balkan(Insight(

Local(newspaper/(source( OSINT( Daily( Economics( Yes( Useful(

Breaking(news(on(the(Balkan(economy,(politics,(business,(culture,(art(&(entertainment( 7(

7(The(World(Bank(

Research(Center( OSINT( Frequent( Economics( Yes( Useful(

Country(data(on(economics,(government(of(Albania( 9(

8(Google(Earth( Other( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes( Useful(

Satellite(imagery,(geographic(profile(of(Albania( 8(

9(CIA(World(Fact(book(

Gov't(Website( IMINT( Frequent( Geography( Yes(

Highly(Useful( CIA(Facts(on(Albania( 9(

10(

National(Geospatial(Intelligence(Agency(

Gov't(Website( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Geographical(database(of(downloadable(country(files(featuring(all(aspects(of(topography( 10(

11(

The(University(of(TexasaAustin(

Educational(Institution( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes( Useful(

CIA(a(produced(maps(of(Albania( 8(

(

! 7!

(

ID)Source)Name)

Type)of)Source)

Intel)Type) Periodicity) Purpose)

Report)w/in)Last)5)Years) Utility) Title)

Source)Rel.)

12( Interpol(

Nonagov't(org( OSINT( Daily( Military( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Interpol(a(Albania's(membership(page,(includes(a(running(blog(of(the(latest(stories,(focused(on(crime,(military,(terrorism,(other(security(matters( 10(

13(Jane's(Intelligence(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( Frequent( Military( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Economic,(Political,(Military(issues( 10(

14(

Stratfor(Global(Intelligence(

Private(Global(Intelligence(service( OSINT( As(needed( Military( Yes( Useful(

Issues(that(affect(Albania( 9(

15(

Ebsco(Host(of(Mercyhurst(Library(

Educational(Institution( OSINT( Frequent( Military( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

The(Military(and(its(Role(in(Albania's(Democratization.(( 10(

16(European(Union(

Gov't(Website( OSINT( Frequent( Political( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Europa(is(the(official(EU(website.(Provides(info.(On(EU(institutions,(agencies(and(bodies.( 9(

17(

Center(for(Strategic(&(International(Studies(

Research(Center( OSINT( As(needed( Politics( Yes( Useful(

Albanian(program(page(focusing(on(political,(economic,(security(and(world(affairs( 10(

18( Balkanalysis(

Indep(News(&(Analysis( OSINT( Daily( Politics( Yes( Useful(

Produces(local(country(briefings,(articles,(interviews( 9(

19( Rand(

Research(Center( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Politics,(social,(technology,(military,(international(relations,(economics,(science,(geography( 10(

20(

U.S.(Department(of(State(

Gov't(Website( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Albanian(a(home(page( 10(

21(Reuters(a(Albania(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( As(needed( Politics( Yes( Useful(

Albanian(resource(page( 10(

22(US(Embassy(a(Albania(

Gov't(Website( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Albanian(ahome(page( 10(

( (

! 8!

ID)Source)Name)

Type)of)Source)

Intel)Type) Periodicity) Purpose)

Report)w/in)Last)5)Years) Utility) Title)

)Source)Rel.)

23(

Office(of(Prime(Minister(

Gov't(Website(aAlbania( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Prime(Minister’s(website(of(Albania( 9(

24(Amnesty(International(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(

Updates(on(human(rights(issues(around(the(world( 9(

25(

US(Citizenship(and(Immigration(Services(

Gov't(Website( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(

Homeland(Security:((asylum(and(patronization(resources(for(Albanian(citizens(seeking(US(citizenship( 10(

26( Google(Alerts(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( Frequent( Social( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Regular,(worldawide(alerts(on(Albania,(politics,(technology,(international(relations,(economy( 9(

27( The(Guardian(

Newspaper(a(online(source( OSINT( Frequent( Social( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Albanian(Bureau(a(Government,(political,(social,(military(and(international(relations( 8(

28(Albanian(Blogger( Blog(Post( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(

General(information(on(regional(social,(cultural(issues(pertaining(to(Albania(( 8(

29(Global(Security.org(

Online(News(Source( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Factabased(database(of(sources(focusing(on(world(security(issues/reliable(news(&(security(information( 10(

30(

European(Stability(Initiative( Think(Tank(( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

A(nonaprofit(research(and(policy(institute(for(South(east(Europe;(Balkans( 9(

31(

Agency(for(Technology(and(Innovation((ARTI)(

Gov't(Website(aAlbania( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Albanian(science,(technology(website( 9(

32(

United(States(Agency(for(International(Development(

Gov't(Website( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(

Highly(Useful(

Government(agency(responsible(for(foreign(aid.(Bilateral(relations,(Socioeconomic(development( 9(

! 9!

Link)Analysis)Z)Geography)()Executive)Summary:))It)is)likely)that)Albania)will)remain)stable)in)the)next)24)months.)Albania’s)geography)plays)a)vital)role)it)its)overall)national)stability.)A)vast)mix)of)rich)minerals,)natural)resources)and)coastal)access)to)international)commerce)gives)promise,)yet)its)lack)of)infrastructure)to)preserve)and)protect)these)resources)are)compromising)national)assets.)Without)national)reforms)and)initiatives)to)mitigate)natural)and)manZmade)hazards,)risks)of)degradation)to)the)environment)remain.)The)Strait)of)Otranto)is)a)key)point)linking)the)Adriatic)and)Ionian)seas,)with)a)route)for)tourism)and)commerce.)Chances)are)about)even)that)the)strategic)location)of)Albania)and)the)Strait)of)Otranto)could)create)a)destabilizing)gateway)of)organized)crime)and)drug)trafficking)from)Italy,)Turkey)into)southern)Europe.)))Discussion:((Development)of)strategies)and)policy’s)are)making)an)impact)on)natural)resources)and)reduction)of)manZmade)hazards.)Degradation(caused(by(land(reclamation,(mining(and(industrial(pollution(resources(during(the(country’s(postacommunist(transition(era(resulted(in(considerable(damage(to(forests(and(pastures.(High(rates(of(reforestation(were(due(to(illegal(logging,(increased(use(of(forests(for(fuelawood,(uncontrolled(harvesting(and(overgrazing(of(forests(and(pastures,(and(poor(forest(management.1(((Reforms(and(improvement(have(resulted(in(forestry,(watershed,(and(agriculture(and(carbon(sequestration(measures(in(degraded(lands(through(protection(measures.(Sustainable,(community(based(natural(resource(management(will(lead(to(higher(productivity,(incomes(and(improvements(in(land(and(water(resources(for(the(public(sector.(2((The(World(Bank(is(supporting(forest(and(pasture(management(planning(and(investment(in(240(Local(Government(Units((LGUs)(through(the(National(Resource(Development(Project((NRDP)(to(restore(the(forests(and(land(of(Albania.3((Air(pollution,(municipal(solid(waste(management(and(access(to(clean(water(and(improved(sanitation(remain(the(most(pressing(challenges(for(Albania(according(to(the(second(Environmental(Performance(Review(of(Albania,(performed(by(the(United(Nations(Economic(Commission(for(Europe((UNECE).(4()Environmental)and)Coastal)development)are)important)aspects)to)tourism.)Albania(is(participating(in(the(Program(of(Work(on(Protected(Areas((POWPA)(and(Coastal(Zone(Management,(including(a(comprehensive(ecological(gap(assessment(for(the(protected(area(system(and(fostering(a(constructive(policy(environment(to(help(preserve(marine(protected(areas.5(Tourism(in(Albania(has(a(relatively(high(potential.6(Development(and(pressure(from(tourism(will(grow((generated(by(domestic,(as(well(as(by(international(investors)(it(is(important(

! 10!

that(both(local(and(national(authorities(make(efforts(to(safeguard(the(environmental(potential(of(the(coastal(area(to(secure(the(environmental(sound(development(of(tourism(and(so(guarantee(longaterm(sustainable(and(the(socioaeconomic(security(of(the(coastal(population.((The)Balkan)Route)is)a)corridor)for)drug)trafficking.)Even(though(the(quantity(of(drugs(has(come(down(in(recent(years,(the(Balkan(route,(through(Albania(is(still(one(of(the(world’s(main,(important(routes(for(smuggling(drugs,(especially(heroin(from(Afghanistan.(Large(single(seizures(of(heroin(upstream(and(in(destination(markets(suggest(that(while(large(shipments(are(moving(through(SouthaEastern(Europe,(there(appears(to(be(less(such(actionable(information(in(the(region(itself.(This(is(an(area(of(vulnerability(in(the(context(of(disappearing(internal(borders(resulting(from(European(Union((EU)(accession(and(accelerating(regional(integration.(7(Cocaine(constitutes(a(small(percentage(of(drugs(trafficked(through(Albania(and(entering(the(country(by(land,(seaports(and(airport.(Cannabis(grows(easily(in(Albania(in(many(areas,(especially(Fier,(Vlora,(and(Shkodra(Tropoja.((8()Comments:)!Analyst’s!expertise!was!low;!the!complexity!of!the!subject!matter!is!high!and!the!analyst!worked!alone.!!Sources!collected!came!from!a!variety!of!open!academic!and!news!sources,!including!government!websites,!online!databases,!newspaper!articles,!Google!Earth!and!institutional!websites.!!

(Source(Reliability:(8/10(

Analytic(Confidence:(8/10(((

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!http://www.thegef.org/gef/content/naturalaresourcesadevelopmentaalbaniaasupportingaparticipatoryaforestamanagement(2(http://www.unafoodsecurity.org/node/638(3(http://www.unafoodsecurity.org/node/638(4(http://bit.ly/1tblPrF((5(http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/3281(6(http://pastandpresent.al/en/coast(7(http://www.unodc.org/documents/dataaandaanalysis/Studies/Illicit_DT_through_SEE_REPORT_2014_web.pdf(8(http://www.academia.edu/5082774/DRUG_PRODUCTION_AND_TRAFFICKING_IN_ALBANIA(!(((

() )

! 11!

Link)Analysis)Chart:))Albania)Geography()

(Figure)3:))Link)Analysis)Chart)of)Albania)

! 12!

Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB))Analysis)&)Terrain)()Executive)Summary:((Joining)the)North)Atlantic)Treaty)Organization)(NATO))in)2009,)Albania)is)highly)likely)to)be)stable)in)24)months.))Albania’s)military)doctrine)is)integrating)towards)the)NATO)model)and)regional)cooperation)among)neighboring)Balkan)countries.)The)restructured)military)forces)are)focused)on)limited)joint)operations,)humanitarian)aid,)rapid)relief)due)to)natural)disasters)and)responsiveness)to)civil)emergencies.)Attack)from)an)enemy)would)be)unlikely)with)war)risks)low,)mitigated)by)NATO)membership,)future)prospects)of)joining)the)European)Union)(EU))and)an)alliance)with)the)United)States.)Analysis)of)the)terrain)reveals)several)NoZGo)areas)along)the)north,)east)and)southern)borders)due)to)dense)forest;)lakes,)rivers,)and)rugged)mountainous)ranges)are)significant)obstacles)to)navigate)operations)for)order)of)battle.))The)western)coastline)through)the)Strait)of)Otranto)provides)porous)avenues)of)approach)across)mostly)flat)marshy)plains.))))Discussion:)

NATO)membership)provides)longZterm)stability)towards)future)European)Union)(EU))accession.))Albania’s(membership(in(NATO(promises(that(the(country(will(remain(politically(strong(and(secure(from(external(attack(and(cements(its(efforts(to(attain(prosperity(in(the(end.(1((Since(Albania(joined(NATO,(its(focus(has(been(on(developing(military(capabilities(and(institutional(structures(that(would(enable(its(participation(in(NATOaled(military(operations.((This(step(of(Albania’s(integration(into(EuroaAtlantic(structures(constitutes(one(of(the(most(important(current(national(priorities(for(the(country.2(

Military)forces)operate)with)a)new)NATO)westernZstyle)structure.)With(bilateral(and(multilateral(assistance,(the(armed(forces(are(transitioning(to(a(smaller,(voluntary,(professional(military.3(Albania(worked(with(the(international(community(to(restructure(its(armed(forces(and(strengthen(democratic(structures,(including(addressing(military(reforms,(in(its(pursuit(of(NATO(membership.(Albania(currently(has(8,500(active(defense(personnel,(including(civilians,(from(which(only(2,500(are(ready(for(combat,(while(the(other(two(thirds(are(executive(and(supporting(staff.(Albania(spends(less(than(1.5%(of(its(GDP(on(the(defense(budget.(4()A)collective,)regional,)western)Balkans)approach)aims)to)strengthen)its)defense)reforms,)strengthen)military)to)military)cooperation,)and)operations.))Albania(currently(holds(the(presidency(of(The(“Adriatic(Chart”((A5)(EuroaAtlantic(integration(of(the(region.((This(initiative(is(military(cooperation(between(the(countries,(focused(on(exercises,(joint(training(operations,(and(increasing(of(the(capacity(for(airspace.(The(Ministry(of(Defense(for(Albania(stressed(that(

! 13!

regional(cooperation(should(focus(on(the(concept(of(“Smart(Defense”(and(use(of(joint(defense(assets(in(cases(of(emergencies.(5((

((((((Figure(4:((Albanian(Uniformed(Personnel(in(Peacekeeping(Operations(

Albania’s(contribution(to(peacekeeping(is(through(NATO,(the(EU,(and(the(UN,(as(well(as(joint(coalitions(with(strategic(partners.((Albania’s(participation(to(United(Nations((UN)(peacekeeping(is(a(lower(priority,(and(not(Albania’s(immediate(security(and(foreign(policy(interest.(6((

External)threat)to)national)security)is)low.((Albania’s(commitment(to(uphold(NATO’s(military(standards(is(strong.(In(the(event(of(attack,(no(Albanian(defensive(combat(forces(exist,(but(NATO(having(responsibility(for(security,(supports(Albanian(air(space.(No(military(reserves(exist.((Internal(security(provides(border(protection,(law(and(maritime(counterasmuggling(operations.(7(

Albania’s)geography)provides)natural)defensive)borders.)Three(sets(of(mountain(ranges(((Pindus,(Korab,(Northern(Alps),(bordering(three(countries,(Greece,(Kosovo(and(Montenegro,(give(a(defensive(border(insulating(Albania(from(attack.(8((Comments:)

Sources!consulted!are!highly!reliable.!The!analysis!and!analytical!confidence!of!the!IPB!are!8/10.!!!!The!sources!used!were!OSINT,!but!also!came!from!Jane’s!Intelligence,!the!Central!Intelligence!Agency!(CIA),!Google!Earth,!and!organizational!websites!focusing!on!military!capabilities!of!foreign!nations!including!Albania.!(((

Source(Reliability:((9/10(Analytic(Confidence:((8/10(

((

! 14!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1(http://www.ukessays.com/essays/politics/integrationaofanatoahasaaffectedaalbanianaeconomyapoliticsaessay.php(a(ixzz3JMdW0dsL(((

2(http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wpacontent/uploads/2014/06/AlbaniaaVisokaa12aJunea2014aFINAL.pdf(

3(http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/alabudget.htm(4(http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wpacontent/uploads/2014/06/AlbaniaaVisokaa12aJunea2014aFINAL.pdf(

5(http://www.mod.gov.al/eng/index.php/newsroom/122adefenceaministerakodheliachairsausaadriaticacharteraa5aministerialainabrussels(

6(http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wpacontent/uploads/2014/06/AlbaniaaVisokaa12aJunea2014aFINAL.pdf(

7(http://www.janes.com(8(http://www.jstor.org/stable/207419?seq=4(!(

)))))))))))))))))

) )

! 15!

Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB)))))

Albanian)Military)Locations)))

())))))))))))))Figure)5:))Military)Locations))) ))))

! 16!

Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB))))((

Military)Avenues)of)Approach)to)Albania)

() ) Figure)6:))Military)Avenues)of)Approach)

((

! 17!

Analysis)of)Competing)Hypothesis)(ACH))Matrix)))((Executive)Summary:)(It)is)probable)Albania)will)continue)to)be)stable)in)the)next)24)months.)With)accession)into)the)European)Union)in)2009,)major)government)reformations)are)having)effects)on)economic)factors,)politics,)military,)technology,)geography)and)environmental)sectors.))Without)these)directional)changes,)Albania’s)environmental)hazards)and)natural)disasters)pose)significant)risk)to)its)natural)resources,)making)up)half)its)Gross)Domestic)product)(GDP).))Key)internal)threats)to)security)remain)because)of)corruption,)organized)crime,)transnational)drugs,)trafficking,)and)weapons)smuggling.))Despite)these)issues,)the)country’s)overall)outlook)is)positive.))Discussion:)

Albania)is)making)positive,)developmental)steps)towards)changing)its)governance.((Albania’s(foreign(trade(is(liberal(and(opened(its(markets(to(global(and(foreign(investment.((Reforms(in(public(administration(advanced,(with(the(Civil(Service(Law(coming(into(effect.(Strengthening(the(legislative(framework(and(policy(coordination(improved(monitoring(at(the(central(level.1(Albania(joined(the(Word(Trade(Organization((WTO)(in(2000.((Since(then,(the(Albanian(economic(growth(has(been(one(of(the(highest(among(the(countries(of(the(region(coupled(with(a(low(inflation(rate.(GPD(has(grown(by(an(average(of(6%(per(year.((

In(2013,(Albania(exported(about(246(billion(ALL(of(goods,(with(an(increase(of(15%(from(previous(year.(Even(though(exports(have(increased,(the(trade(deficit(has(been(deepening.2(

(

))Figure)7:)Trade)Balance)1993Z2013)

Albania)is)a)disaster)prone)country)and)exposed)to)natural)and)manZmade)origins.(Natural(risks(include(geologic((earthquakes,(rock(falls(and(landslides);(hydroameteorological((flooding(

! 18!

and(torrential(rains,(droughts,(snowstorms,(high(snowfall(and(windstorms);(biophysical((forest(fires(and(epidemics);(and(avalanches.(Albania(ranks(41st(in(the(world(in(terms(of(vulnerability(to(landslides,(43rd(in(terms(of(earthquakes(and(58th(in(terms(of(drought(risks.(The(cost(of(damages(has(a(negative(impact(on(the(macroeconomic(situation(of(the(country.3((

Albania(has(environmental(problems(that(include(the(deterioration(of(bioadiversity((deforestation(and(loss(of(flora(and(fauna);(soil(erosion;(specific(sectorial(problems((water,(air(and(land(pollution);(and(the(continued(existence(of(higharisk(areas((hot(spots)(with(respect(to(environmental(pollution.(4)

Progress)in)AntiZcorruption)policies)and)fight)against)organized)crime)are)developing.)The(Albanian(authorities(have(strengthened(the(legal(and(institutional(antiacorruption(framework.(An(appointment(of(a(National(AntiaCorruption(Coordinator(and(a(network(of(antiacorruption(focal(points(in(all(line(ministries(were(established.(The(introduction(of(key(legislation(for(State(Police(and(Prosecution(office(covering(training(and(the(control(of(firearms(is(waiting(for(adoption.(Police(have(conducted(successful(operations(against(narcotics,(human(trafficking,(money(laundering(and(seizures(of(explosives.(5((The!PARC!ACH!software!is!an!analyst!tool!used!to!demonstrate!evidence!of!two!competing!hypothesis!as!“Consistent”!or!“Inconsistent”!with!the!likelihood!of!Albania’s!stability!in!the!next!12!to!24!months.!The!graph!below!(Figure!8)!depicts!my!ACH!analysis,!that!Albania!would!be!highly!likely!to!remain!stable!based!on!the!level!of!inconsistency!than!the!opposing!hypothesis.!!) ) (

Comments:)

The!analyst!utilized!the!ACH!tool,!which!does!not!produce!analytic!certainty,!but!does!create!a!statistical!measurement!that!helps!the!analysis!process!from!human!bias!and!mindset.!Analyst!expertise!was!low!and!OSINT!was!used;!along!with!many!sources!to!compile!the!evidence!in!the!ACH!matrices!including!newspaper!articles,!CIA!World!FactBook,!Jane’s!Intelligence,!journal!articles,!government!websites,!academic,!organizational,!corporate!and!economic!websites.!!(

Source(Reliability:((8/10(Analytic(Confidence:((8/10(

(((

Figure'8:''Inconsistencies'of'Hypotheses'

! 19!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1(http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008aalbaniaaprogressareport_en.pdf(2(http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model((3http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Final.pdf(4http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Final.pdf((5http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/al_report_june_2014.pdf((!)Graphic(Source:(http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model()

) )

! 20!

Analysis)of)Competing)Hypothesis)(ACH))Matrix)–)Albania))

Figure!(9)!

(

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(

((

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Contact)Information)((

(Stephanie(Morrison(sbmorrison@austin.rr.com(((((

((