Sheet 1ALADDIN GAMES: MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONTotal annual market forecast, sets180,000Selling price/Market share informationStandard forecast error, sets18,000Price,Market ShareFcst.Minimum facility investment$86,000$/setPrice ^2DataForecastErrorMaximum facility investment$98,000$4.2518.06318%17.97%0.03%Equipment life, years5$4.5020.25017%17.11%-0.11%Salvage value0$4.7522.56315%14.83%0.17%Depreciation methodStraight line$5.0025.00011%11.11%-0.11%Minimum variable cost, $/set$1.60$5.2527.5636%5.97%0.03%Most probable variable cost, $/set$2.15LINEST OUTPUTAverageMaximum variable cost, $/set$2.35-0.114290.96571-1.86029(MP-MIN)/(MAX-MIN)0.733-0.114290.96571-1.86029Non-production costs, % of sales30%-0.1142996.571%-1.8602857143Cost of capital13%-0.11428571430.9657142857-1.8602857143Tax rate40%-0.114290.96571-1.8602857143Monte Carlo Simulation with Wholesale Price and Market Share from Most Probable ScenarioWholesale price, $/set$4.66Market share at wholesale price15.82%Iteration number123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200Total annual market, sets in year 1192754189712142740149669171817158528167501189198171408184391185084186947198241160657187917161566143085175505140974169617180731159919182628168894167487170009200145184348188330162913174020181604200352180790187900169861187820213544195496173439163389194761188835173712139879170066181129201410172364193096179998181796167676180337179886211246181745186271161121192443173127169087214506165817192687202548205736196479196651171542154435169107159561164107194198163771173650175031149102153579207210170908174663197180164456170013149721172104168383170254190968170417133829150353188785159767166444188927178771196563180590167470155261185436201136202196196439184852187237175522184529198036189147186473152065166021175935183153163609189622189280186420191298157647166812216284172714149624166381169886176142167662158919198454192483199153170698181965158514203899171336171154178887184588186840204964172165182379184848178639194233188352170502183605189068198843169495182813188104136009200109184624168128197427188569168953206288190868176465171504175731161057176159160666199353147193219320196347175659178186161025160876186848160392187866182395181648217498150947172489171622172694176533154626203285157027202395188389172714168049Total annual market, sets in year 2176378205363196909162154188920208490198189157980150860182497202365173061150680193709178418167568183043181354184842190699158228200631197265187419171356189378188106173007157082169341186908191547186220183883205219183244181229195176176851154600173157200431196221176066126214183837197729177459204103139226186825155957188254193221187345198623159211213552170178187354171266170240175565193316182767154674186225193914214593196988181151178656181874149042184586185616172050196071169201178227193253146330196083200666185357187030162233155014183900206518201881202332164360224442152568165640198564189530172059213798190905162811208200156485177102200605154484191036145006191816164142170699174235161389187634186858178356163886184908195889184259161557226396189173151418187881112651165716170827169547192959157355161332133410175312150143135442189556179440169006191468188664203364168307157939178479162323193136175549152238162634193264164613191642182512179560201128186803179338165038202395163336157671206425168037181837180826189602174525175272178810182717193202215923186555202681180809184755188512173883169254132708205282214343184540172009204979179330170262169724189411202111191169169683207068214001189843141720197613190218Total annual market, sets in year 3197977173355155569189175154260224157181813153181170307190576232594173783183664193235198639190202162447154763197513187775183964213222190956168824156785143664166324181668197904189641194407143231197027180535194264182425169374160244186263203688170328180328170358178170178781160684198487183410175894189097178552195466189539158562182957184875176519172927173760190338186101203493190432197767207551171891176961194860186616198026200754196674181315163609162502159765192898208004190018176004137145175205174676177673167196163692157730178302170293191862161273174576190738209711200989187772205382194667170467199548157147183424157956180612162260179761184691186395205073140043160796173811194625208675182486206490177870186748162238187897178083166830193727163651175950165350176488169916188791177060151658214645167162197513156785210296180778191037138495145240152202167352192324199153191893186066173583173550168285143286177193172806195946173392198994182301186607153660176138192818170646171091194748160014170098161197180203175474153832189501164696158651214420181589151634183958139945169459183936186174166166198687182438201655176155164728175092189577145867213623196778176939218854133754226025159503161994154144202936175097Total annual market, sets in year 4178399192307174457180753155447197753179013181864202386167205176550176686183096189995146928214108179120173872195808186098197333173467181165205782158228186351182515180925175127165347192594192092179238192800163266184999179820159160172739218535197995175185178689164498163542165370170852182771174353133129206744158609214689190968170606160693166170199311193731187403165133162643178433183221154237160095185347182860209524175288201867178238178596162262191121163151184302217307189838202834185977194194220104190211145554184627197709169112231854198452173883188058178079184935171080167306172943195830160098171904198762189139167991195158181988179464185329174780132708189335179171180144205546204311185224192939166664181269190993194183170026171435177211178629188127165750179454176388182587168387183145185927168549155108179283157904222204198661208285185902168411151996193670163634155967158905199124174743178488156091178952176687156785180495180509191623146786189558156980151393158968179217162672217680203014187583181648193899201959168256206715179262200027195042186757142332159814188355162233179101169747203896179388166714183769165084180521211129173870196435161793174159185148139729183751188277160229182894168918179177Total annual market, sets in year 5178887167825165674171275220828188229150926174472164400174689174856191122201567185554153559180277151634189493193391174255162626172776183106200956192691204476200465194423126893209043177635162650160808202927196700168595177386179447199783204459183814182982194829184744159254204036177707198482224529197922146081144803183672155447162010173523177624193832180090162863163655132621191838153567177338195638165057168215189633151757198886182154193102155264150804172687180826179090191959159661142019221765176872190774175925201792187113201829190356191378172733178161142693211626191474189803154063157927164913245002203467167557189416179723173581172209166954214760167052153820226209180282204518150262181187153648158421185429188723195954193123177414188090153700180514153514204438200420203649178719153514217402197167207227221929167457160691166848196569170808157334178150159834176157185540177718169127177399195866163827194850193082209599155558163283165304171244185538187397186570209830155720178760178602205980149995165917183071148804167217189465206034184796177296110849183401167043161562147229230521168919180885176690187561193670174946208385198232191345206417169257174403174783188877178800180615170070181541193838180995Sales receipts, year 1$142,065$139,823$105,203$110,310$126,633$116,839$123,453$139,444$126,332$135,901$136,411$137,785$146,109$118,408$138,500$119,079$105,457$129,352$103,902$125,012$133,203$117,865$134,601$124,479$123,442$125,301$147,512$135,870$138,804$120,071$128,257$133,847$147,665$133,247$138,487$125,192$138,428$157,388$144,086$127,829$120,422$143,544$139,176$128,030$103,095$125,343$133,497$148,444$127,037$142,317$132,663$133,989$123,581$132,913$132,581$155,694$133,951$137,286$118,750$141,835$127,599$124,621$158,096$122,212$142,015$149,283$151,633$144,810$144,937$126,431$113,822$124,636$117,601$120,951$143,129$120,703$127,985$129,002$109,892$113,192$152,719$125,964$128,731$145,327$121,208$125,304$110,348$126,845$124,103$125,482$140,748$125,601$98,635$110,814$139,139$117,753$122,673$139,244$131,759$144,872$133,100$123,429$114,431$136,671$148,242$149,024$144,781$136,241$137,998$129,365$136,002$145,957$139,406$137,435$112,076$122,362$129,668$134,989$120,584$139,756$139,504$137,396$140,991$116,190$122,945$159,407$127,294$110,277$122,627$125,210$129,821$123,571$117,127$146,266$141,865$146,781$125,809$134,113$116,829$150,279$126,279$126,145$131,845$136,046$137,706$151,064$126,890$134,418$136,238$131,661$143,155$138,820$125,664$135,321$139,348$146,552$124,922$134,738$138,638$100,242$147,485$136,073$123,915$145,509$138,980$124,522$152,039$140,675$130,060$126,403$129,518$118,703$129,834$118,415$146,928$108,485$161,644$144,713$129,465$131,327$118,680$118,570$137,711$118,213$138,462$134,430$133,880$160,301$111,251$127,129$126,490$127,280$130,109$113,963$149,826$115,733$149,170$138,847$127,294$123,857Sales receipts, year 2$129,995$151,358$145,127$119,512$139,239$153,663$146,070$116,435$111,188$134,505$149,148$127,550$111,055$142,768$131,499$123,502$134,907$133,663$136,233$140,550$116,618$147,871$145,389$138,133$126,294$139,576$138,639$127,511$115,774$124,808$137,756$141,175$137,249$135,527$151,252$135,056$133,570$143,849$130,343$113,944$127,621$147,723$144,620$129,765$93,023$135,492$145,731$130,792$150,429$102,613$137,695$114,945$138,748$142,408$138,078$146,390$117,343$157,394$125,425$138,084$126,227$125,471$129,396$142,479$134,704$113,999$137,253$142,919$158,160$145,185$133,513$131,674$134,046$109,848$136,044$136,804$126,805$144,509$124,705$131,358$142,432$107,849$144,518$147,896$136,613$137,846$119,570$114,249$135,539$152,209$148,792$149,124$121,137$165,419$112,446$122,081$146,347$139,688$126,812$157,575$140,702$119,996$153,449$115,333$130,529$147,851$113,858$140,798$106,873$141,373$120,977$125,810$128,415$118,948$138,291$137,719$131,453$120,788$136,282$144,375$135,804$119,072$166,860$139,426$111,599$138,473$83,027$122,137$125,904$124,960$142,215$115,975$118,906$98,326$129,209$110,659$99,824$139,708$132,252$124,562$141,117$139,050$149,885$124,047$116,405$131,543$119,636$142,346$129,384$112,203$119,866$142,440$121,324$141,245$134,516$132,340$148,236$137,679$132,177$121,637$149,170$120,383$116,207$152,140$123,848$134,018$133,273$139,742$128,630$129,180$131,788$134,667$142,395$159,141$137,496$149,381$133,261$136,169$138,938$128,156$124,744$97,809$151,298$157,976$136,011$126,775$151,075$132,171$125,488$125,091$139,601$148,961$140,896$125,061$152,615$157,724$139,919$104,451$145,646$140,195Sales receipts, year 3$145,914$127,767$114,658$139,427$113,693$165,209$134,001$112,898$125,521$140,459$171,428$128,083$135,365$142,419$146,402$140,183$119,728$114,064$145,572$138,395$135,586$157,150$140,740$124,428$115,555$105,884$122,585$133,894$145,860$139,770$143,283$105,565$145,214$133,059$143,177$134,452$124,833$118,104$137,281$150,123$125,536$132,907$125,558$131,316$131,766$118,428$146,290$135,178$129,638$139,369$131,597$144,064$139,695$116,864$134,844$136,258$130,099$127,452$128,066$140,284$137,161$149,979$140,353$145,759$152,971$126,688$130,425$143,616$137,541$145,951$147,961$144,954$133,634$120,584$119,768$117,751$142,171$153,305$140,048$129,719$101,079$129,131$128,741$130,949$123,228$120,645$116,251$131,413$125,510$141,407$118,863$128,667$140,579$154,562$148,134$138,393$151,372$143,474$125,639$147,072$115,822$135,188$116,418$133,116$119,590$132,489$136,122$137,378$151,144$103,215$118,511$128,103$143,443$153,799$134,497$152,188$131,095$137,638$119,573$138,485$131,252$122,958$142,782$120,615$129,680$121,868$130,076$125,233$139,144$130,498$111,776$158,199$123,203$145,572$115,555$154,994$133,238$140,799$102,074$107,045$112,176$123,342$141,748$146,781$141,430$137,136$127,935$127,911$124,030$105,605$130,596$127,363$144,417$127,794$146,664$134,360$137,534$113,251$129,818$142,112$125,770$126,098$143,534$117,934$125,366$118,807$132,814$129,329$113,378$139,667$121,385$116,930$158,033$133,836$111,758$135,582$103,143$124,895$135,565$137,215$122,468$146,437$134,462$148,625$129,831$121,409$129,047$139,723$107,508$157,446$145,031$130,408$161,301$98,580$166,586$117,558$119,394$113,608$149,569$129,051Sales receipts, year 4$131,484$141,735$128,580$133,219$114,568$145,749$131,937$134,039$149,163$123,234$130,122$130,222$134,947$140,031$108,290$157,803$132,016$128,148$144,315$137,159$145,439$127,849$133,523$151,667$116,618$137,346$134,518$133,346$129,073$121,865$141,946$141,577$132,103$142,099$120,331$136,349$132,532$117,305$127,313$161,066$145,927$129,116$131,698$121,239$120,535$121,882$125,922$134,707$128,503$98,120$152,376$116,899$158,232$140,748$125,741$118,435$122,471$146,898$142,785$138,121$121,707$119,872$131,510$135,038$113,677$117,994$136,605$134,773$154,425$129,192$148,781$131,366$131,630$119,591$140,861$120,247$135,835$160,161$139,916$149,494$137,070$143,126$162,222$140,191$107,277$136,075$145,716$124,640$170,882$146,264$128,156$138,604$131,249$136,302$126,090$123,309$127,464$144,332$117,996$126,697$146,493$139,400$123,813$143,836$134,129$132,269$136,592$128,817$97,809$139,545$132,054$132,771$151,493$150,582$136,515$142,201$122,835$133,600$140,766$143,118$125,313$126,352$130,609$131,654$138,654$122,162$132,262$130,003$134,571$124,105$134,983$137,033$124,225$114,318$132,136$116,379$163,770$146,418$153,511$137,014$124,123$112,025$142,740$120,602$114,952$117,117$146,759$128,790$131,550$115,043$131,892$130,223$115,555$133,029$133,040$141,231$108,185$139,709$115,698$111,581$117,163$132,087$119,893$160,436$149,626$138,254$133,880$142,909$148,849$124,009$152,354$132,121$147,425$143,751$137,645$104,902$117,787$138,822$119,570$132,002$125,108$150,276$132,213$122,873$135,443$121,671$133,049$155,607$128,146$144,778$119,246$128,360$136,459$102,984$135,429$138,765$118,093$134,797$124,497$132,058Sales receipts, year 5$131,845$123,691$122,106$126,234$162,756$138,730$111,237$128,590$121,167$128,751$128,873$140,862$148,560$136,758$113,177$132,869$111,758$139,661$142,534$128,430$119,859$127,341$134,954$148,110$142,018$150,704$147,748$143,294$93,523$154,070$130,922$119,877$118,520$149,562$144,973$124,259$130,738$132,257$147,245$150,692$135,476$134,862$143,594$136,161$117,374$150,380$130,975$146,287$165,484$145,874$107,665$106,724$135,371$114,568$119,405$127,891$130,913$142,859$132,731$120,034$120,618$97,745$141,389$113,183$130,702$144,190$121,651$123,979$139,764$111,849$146,584$134,252$142,321$114,434$111,146$127,275$133,273$131,994$141,479$117,674$104,672$163,447$130,359$140,606$129,661$148,726$137,907$148,753$140,297$141,051$127,309$131,309$105,169$155,974$141,122$139,890$113,548$116,396$121,545$180,572$149,960$123,494$139,604$132,460$127,934$126,922$123,049$158,284$123,122$113,369$166,721$132,872$150,735$110,747$133,540$113,242$116,760$136,666$139,094$144,423$142,337$130,759$138,627$113,281$133,044$113,144$150,676$147,715$150,094$131,720$113,144$160,231$145,317$152,732$163,568$123,420$118,433$122,971$144,876$125,890$115,959$131,301$117,802$129,833$136,748$130,983$124,651$130,747$144,359$120,744$143,609$142,306$154,480$114,650$120,344$121,834$126,211$136,746$138,116$137,507$154,650$114,770$131,751$131,634$151,812$110,550$122,285$134,928$109,672$123,243$139,640$151,853$136,200$130,672$81,699$135,171$123,115$119,075$108,512$169,900$124,498$133,317$130,225$138,237$142,740$128,940$153,585$146,102$141,026$152,134$124,747$128,539$128,819$139,207$131,781$133,118$125,346$133,800$142,863$133,398Random number to simulate variable costUnit variable cost, $/setTotal variable cost, year 1Total variable cost, year 2Total variable cost, year 3Total variable cost, year 4Total variable cost, year 5Non-production costs, year 1Non-production costs, year 2Non-production costs, year 3Non-production costs, year 4Non-production costs, year 5Before-tax cash flow, year 1Before-tax cash flow, year 2Before-tax cash flow, year 3Before-tax cash flow, year 4Before-tax cash flow, year 5Investment, $Annual depreciationTaxable income, year 1Taxable income, year 2Taxable income, year 3Taxable income, year 4Taxable income, year 5Tax, year 1Tax, year 2Tax, year 3Tax, year 4Tax, year 5After-tax cash flow, year 0After-tax cash flow, year 1After-tax cash flow, year 2After-tax cash flow, year 3After-tax cash flow, year 4After-tax cash flow, year 5Net present value, end of year 0Net present value, end of year 1Net present value, end of year 2Net present value, end of year 3Net present value, end of year 4Net present value, end of year 5Internal rate of return (IRR)Modified internal rate of return (MIRR}Years to break even

Summary of Results for 200 IterationsNPVIRRMIRRYears to Break EvenMinimumAverageMaximumStandard deviationSkewnessKurtosisProbability for failing to break even by end of 5 yearsNPVCountsCum. FreqNormProb.($15,000.00)($12,500.00)($10,000.00)($7,500.00)($5,000.00)($2,500.00)$0.00$2,500.00$5,000.00$7,500.00$10,000.00$12,500.00$15,000.00$17,500.00$20,000.00$22,500.00$25,000.00$27,500.00$30,000.00$32,500.00$35,000.00$37,500.00$40,000.00

Unit wholesale PriceMarket ShareAverage NPVAverage IRRAverage MIRRMinimum Years to Break evenProbability for Failing to Break Even

$4.25$4.50$4.55$4.60$4.65$4.70$4.75$4.80$5.00$5.25

MODULE 15 SHELL