AL-01 Flash Poll Presentation - 09/19/13 - cygnal

7/29/2019 AL-01 Flash Poll Presentation - 09/19/13 - cygnal

1/15

AL-01 Flash PollConducted Tuesday, September 17 & Wednesday, September 18

n = 716 Likely Voters

MoE = +/- 3.64% at 95% Confidence Interval

CLIENT: Internal; For Media Release

Republican Primary Special Election September 24, 2013


2/15

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Byrne34.0%

Dyas2.0%

Fincher14.9%

Griffith8.3%

Hillyer9.1%

James

0.7%

Powe1.1%

Thornton0.3%

Young12.1%

Undecided17.5%


3/15

H2H in Mobile Co.

Byrne31.3%

Dyas1.3%

Fincher19.5%Griffith

9.0%

Hillyer10.0%

James0.5%

Powe0.7%

Thornton0.6%

Young13.6%

Undecided13.6%

* Mobile County represents 52.4% of the district within the flash poll


4/15

H2H in Baldwin Co.

Byrne

42.3%

Dyas2.5%

Fincher5.0%

Griffith8.3%

Hillyer11.3%

James0.8%

Powe2.2%

Thornton0.0%

Young10.6%

Undecided17.1%

* Baldwin County represents 32.8% of the district within the flash poll


5/15

H2H in Other Counties

Byrne25.1%

Dyas3.6%

Fincher20.6%

Griffith5.9%

Hillyer1.2%

James1.2%

Powe0.0%

Thornton0.0%

Young10.5%

Undecided31.9%

* All other counties represent 14.8% of the district within the flash poll


6/15

2nd Choice Candidate

Byrne27.1%

Dyas3.1%

Fincher15.2%Griffith

10.5%

Hillyer9.8%

James2.3%

Powe

1.0%

Thornton0.2%

Young

8.7%

Undecided22.1%


7/15

Byrne Voters 2nd Choice

13.6%

5.2%18.8%

15.5%

14.8%

2.8%0.7%

0.5%

9.3%

18.8%

Byrne

DyasFincher

Griffith

Hillyer

JamesPowe

Thornton

Young

Undecided


8/15

Fincher Voters 2nd Choice

44.9%

2.1%9.8%

13.6%

8.5%

0.0%0.0%

0.0%

14.9%

6.2%

Byrne

DyasFincher

Griffith

Hillyer

JamesPowe

Thornton

Young

Undecided


9/15

Griffith Voters 2nd Choice

37.8%

0.0%15.6%

9.2%

15.3%

2.2%0.0%

0.0%

12.7%

7.1%

Byrne

DyasFincher

Griffith

Hillyer

JamesPowe

Thornton

Young

Undecided


10/15

Hillyer Voters 2nd Choice

42.7%

0.7%14.5%

16.5%

5.5%

4.1%0.0%

0.0%

9.2%

6.6%

Byrne

DyasFincher

Griffith

Hillyer

JamesPowe

Thornton

Young

Undecided


11/15

Young Voters 2nd Choice

42.3%

4.5%21.9%

5.9%

8.3%

1.3%1.4%

0.0%

8.4%

6.0%

Byrne

DyasFincher

Griffith

Hillyer

JamesPowe

Thornton

Young

Undecided


12/15

Countrys DirectionDefinitely

Right, 4.2%

SomewhatRight, 9.6%

SomewhatWrong, 20.8%

Definitely

Wrong,63.4%

Unsure, 2.0%


13/15

Top Issues

Gov'tSpending,

31.6%

Economy/Jobs,24.9%

Healthcare,16.5%

Others, 17.7%

Unsure, 9.3%


14/15

Demographic Info

Political IdeologyVery Conservative 44.7%

Somewhat Conservative 34.6%

Independent 17.2%

Somewhat Liberal 2.6%

Very Liberal 1.0%

Age Range18 to 34 3.6%

35 to 49 18.1%

50 to 64 37.1%

65+ 41.1%

GenderMale 48.9%

Female 51.1%

Participation inLast 4 Primaries

1 of 4 3.8%2 of 4 8.1%

3 of 4 18.2%

4 of 4 69.9%

CountiesMobile 52.4%

Baldwin 32.8%Others 14.8%


15/15

For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:

Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner

[email protected]

Cory Brown, Data Strategist

[email protected]

www.cygn.al

Documents

AL-01 Flash Poll Presentation - 09/19/13 - cygnal