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2013-14 EPS 32.18 -30.78% EPS Growth Rate -4.99% ROE 17.72% Dividend Payout Ratio 32.30% 0.1199644 Sustainable Growth Rate 10.27% Average Growth Rate 2.64% 2014 ca 13507 cl 10973 cwc 2534

Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

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Page 1: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

2013-14 2012-13EPS 32.18 46.49

-30.78% 10.48%EPS Growth Rate -4.99%

ROE 17.72% 19.79%Dividend Payout Ratio 32.30% 42.60%

0.1199644 0.1135946Sustainable Growth Rate 10.27%

Average Growth Rate 2.64%

2014ca 13507cl 10973

cwc 2534

Page 2: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

2011-12 2010-11 2009-1042.08 47.94 42.59

-12.22% 12.56%

14.01% 16.18% 16.06%42.53% 36.40% 39.79%

0.0805155 0.1029048 0.0966973

20131483011144

3686

Page 3: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Inputs for present value calculations2013 2014 2015 2016

Net revenue 22320 24179 26192.83 28374.40Revenue growth rate 8.33% 8.33% 8.33%Net operating Income 2791 2034 1277 520Cash tax rate 26.30% 26.30% 26.30%Income taxes 534.94 335.85 136.76NOPAT 1499.06 941.15 383.24Depreciation 386 437.00 473.40 512.83Change in working capital 1152.00 1247.95 1351.89Capital expenditures 1341 1452.69 1573.68Change in other assets net 2067.00 2239.16 2425.65Free cash flows -2623.94 -3525.25 -4455.16WACC 7.53% 7.53%Discount factor 0.92999025259 0.864881869921Present values -3278.45 -3853.19

Operating Relationships ( as a % of revenues)NOI 8.41% 8.41% 8.41%Depreciation 1.81% 1.81% 1.81%Change in working capital 4.76% 4.76% 4.76%Capital expenditures 5.55% 5.55% 5.55%Change in other assets net 8.55% 8.55% 8.55%

Page 4: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Inputs for present value calculations2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

30737.66 33297.75 36071.07 39075.38 42329.91 45855.518.33% 8.33% 8.33% 8.33% 8.33% 8.33%

-237 -994 -1751 -2508 -3265 -402226.30% 26.30% 26.30% 26.30% 26.30% 26.30%-62.33 -261.42 -460.51 -659.60 -858.70 -1057.79

-174.67 -732.58 -1290.49 -1848.40 -2406.31 -2964.21555.54 601.81 651.93 706.23 765.05 828.77

1464.48 1586.46 1718.59 1861.73 2016.79 2184.771704.75 1846.74 2000.55 2167.17 2347.67 2543.21

2627.68 2846.54 3083.62 3340.45 3618.67 3920.07-5416.05 -6410.51 -7441.32 -8511.52 -9624.40 -10783.49

7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53%0.80433170867 0.748020648918 0.695651912234 0.646949497576 0.601656726667 0.559534891208

-4356.30 -4795.19 -5176.57 -5506.53 -5790.58 -6033.74

Operating Relationships ( as a % of revenues)8.41% 8.41% 8.41% 8.41% 8.41% 8.41%1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81%4.76% 4.76% 4.76% 4.76% 4.76% 4.76%5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55% 5.55%8.55% 8.55% 8.55% 8.55% 8.55% 8.55%

Page 5: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Inputs for present value calculations2023 2024 Year n+1

49674.74 53812.08 58294.018.33% 8.33% 8.33%-4779 -5536 -6293

26.30% 26.30% 26.30%-1256.88 -1455.97 -1655.06-3522.12 -4080.03 -4637.94

897.80 972.57 1053.582366.74 2563.86 2777.40

2755.03 2984.49 3233.064246.57 4600.26 4983.40

-11992.65 -13256.06 -14578.237.53% 7.53% 7.53%

0.52036199481 0.483931582994-6240.52 -6415.03

Operating Relationships ( as a % of revenues)8.41% 8.41% 8.41%1.81% 1.81% 1.81%4.76% 4.76% 4.76%5.55% 5.55% 5.55%8.55% 8.55% 8.55%

Page 6: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Market Risk 8.50%

Cost of Capital InputsRisk Free Rate 7.50%Beta 0.5Equity Risk Premium 0.50%Cost of Equity 7.750%Cost of Debt 10.0%Cost of Debt (after tax) 7.37%% Equity 41.58%% Debt 58.42%Base WACC 7.53%

Page 7: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Terminal Value (TV) Free Cash Flow/(WACC-g) Valuation calculationTV 1820357.32024464 PV of cash flows, Years 1-10

PV of terminal valueMarketable securitiesTotal value of the firmValue of debtValue of equityShares outstanding

Intrinsic share price

Page 8: Akzo Nobel Intrinsic Value

Valuation calculation-51446.09

1692914.56415,786

1647254.47962305.5582

684948.91466.7 Err:509

1467.6428426