AirlinesMalaysiaJuly 27, 2017

Company Note

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH.

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AirAsia Berhad Special dividends may be paid every two years AirAsia is working towards realising the value of its component businesses, starting

with the sale of AAC, and we believe more will follow, hence we maintain our Add call. The sale of AAC may result in RM1.12/share in special dividends, which we have

included into our target price, with recurring earnings valued at 9x CY18F P/E. In addition, the impending sale of AAE Travel and AACE could be worth 21 sen/share

in special dividends next year, which we have not yet included in our target price. In our view, a potential listing of MAA may be worth an additional 86 sen/share.

Overwhelming reception at Invest Malaysia 2017 AirAsia’s presentation at Invest Malaysia 2017 was attended by an overwhelming crowd of some 130 fund managers and analysts, with Group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes keeping the crowd entertained with his usual wit. There were no surprises, and he took time to elaborate on the priorities of the AirAsia group in the coming years, which includes continued growth in regional markets, enhancing profitability of existing airline businesses, and selective liquidation in order to pay special dividends.

Continued growth in regional markets The first objective is to continue to grow the regional franchise. This is underwritten by AirAsia’s order book of more than 400 planes, with the group fleet expanding by 20-30 planes p.a. The fleet will be used to grow the existing airlines in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and India, and also to start new ventures in Japan, Vietnam and China. In addition to the 300 186-seat A320neo orders, the 100 240-seat A321neo orders will help drive down unit seat costs on deployments to slot-congested airports.

Enhancing profitability of existing airline businesses On the revenue front, AirAsia is working towards enhancing its IT system in order to price ancillary products on a discriminatory basis. For instance, 1) lowering the price of Hot Seats on less popular flights, but raising them for morning and evening departures, 2) pricing meals according to the time of the day to encourage take-up during non-meal times, and to extract higher value during breakfast, lunch or dinner times, etc. AirAsia will also try to cut unit costs by raising aircraft utilisation, and reduce discretionary costs.

Selective liquidation and special dividends AirAsia has a 25% interest in AAE Travel Pte Ltd, which was valued at US$86m when the first 25% tranche was sold in 2015. The balance will probably be sold this year at a higher valuation to JV partner, Expedia. AirAsia’s 50% stake in the pilot training school, Asia Aviation Centre of Excellence (AACE), will also be sold this year to JV partner CAE for an estimated US$81m. These two disposals are worth at least 21 sen/share, and the

proceeds will be distributed as special dividends, in our view, probably early next year.

AAC sale progressing well AirAsia is making progress towards negotiating a final price for the AAC sale, and we expect it to make an announcement around end-Aug. The guidance for a valuation of some US$1bn for the entire AAC remains unchanged, and a sale of some 70-80% stake will raise proceeds of around RM1/share. We have imputed a special dividend of RM1.12

into our target price on the basis of a US$1.2bn valuation and a 70% stake sale.

Potential part-listing of Malaysia AirAsia (MAA) AirAsia is planning to incorporate a new, wholly-owned subsidiary called MAA that will house the Malaysian airline business that is currently embedded within AirAsia Bhd. In our view, this may pave the way for a separate listing of MAA. Assuming a 30% stake sale at 12x P/E on sustainable earnings of RM800m p.a. (ex-leasing profits), AirAsia can realise cash proceeds of 86 sen/share, due to accretion from the current group valuation

of around 10x P/E, which will likely be paid as special dividends after the MAA listing.

SOURCE: COMPANY DATA, CIMB FORECASTS

Malaysia

ADD (no change) Consensus ratings*: Buy 16 Hold 4 Sell 4

Current price: RM3.25

Target price: RM3.51

Previous target: RM3.51

Up/downside: 8.0%

CIMB / Consensus: 0.1%

Reuters: AIRA.KL

Bloomberg: AIRA MK

Market cap: US$2,535m

RM10,861m

Average daily turnover: US$8.52m

RM36.54m

Current shares o/s: 3,342m

Free float: 62.7% *Source: Bloomberg

Key changes in this note

No changes.

Source: Bloomberg

Price performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 1.9 -2.1 14

Relative (%) 2.4 -2.2 7.6

Major shareholders % held Tune Air & Tune Live 32.2 EPF 5.1

Analyst(s)

Raymond YAP, CFA

T (60) 3 2261 9072 E raymond.yap@cimb.com

71.0

84.9

98.8

112.7

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Price Close Relative to FBMKLCI (RHS)

20

40

60

80

Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 May-17

Vol m

Financial Summary Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Revenue (RMm) 5,873 6,946 7,178 8,000 8,638

Operating EBITDA (RMm) 1,861 2,696 2,127 2,411 2,761

Net Profit (RMm) 541 2,039 1,395 1,601 1,461

Core EPS (RM) 0.07 0.56 0.27 0.33 0.40

Core EPS Growth 676% (51%) 20% 21%

FD Core P/E (x) 45.34 5.85 10.83 9.84 8.12

DPS (RM) 0.04 0.12 0.06 0.07 0.08

Dividend Yield 1.23% 3.69% 1.85% 2.15% 2.46%

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.33 6.63 8.79 8.38 7.08

P/FCFE (x) 3.52 NA 6.64 9.62 7.09

Net Gearing 229% 134% 89% 92% 76%

P/BV (x) 2.03 1.37 1.23 1.06 0.95

ROE 4.4% 28.0% 11.9% 11.6% 12.4%

% Change In Core EPS Estimates 0% 0% 0%

CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 1.08 1.30 1.13

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

2

Strong earnings from rising domestic market share

We have an Add call on AirAsia on expectations for good earnings this year, which may exceed our expectations, on top of special dividends, which may also exceed our expectations.

Earnings from Malaysia AirAsia (MAA) may exceed expectations as MAA is gaining market share on the domestic market. From early April, Malindo halved its capacity from Kuala Lumpur to Kota Kinabalu and Kuching, and also cancelled its KL-Miri flights.

Meanwhile, Malaysia Airline (MAS) has exercised its right under the Malaysian Airline System Berhad (Administration) Act 2015 (otherwise known as the “MAS Act”) to abrogate leasing contracts for six B737-800s, which will be returned to lessors over 2H17F. At its Invest Malaysia presentation yesterday, Malaysia Airlines CEO Peter Bellew said that these six B737-800s will be removed from serving the domestic market, including flights between KL and Kota Kinabalu and Kuching, due to non-compensatory pricing and low yields.

As a result of early-April domestic capacity cuts by Malindo, upcoming domestic capacity cuts by MAS over the next six months, the number of available domestic weekly seats from the Greater Kuala Lumpur hubs at KLIA (KUL) and Subang (SZB) is forecast to decline 1% yoy by January 2018F, even with planned capacity increases by AirAsia. As a result, AirAsia’s market share of domestic seat capacity from KUL/SZB is likely to rise from 41.1% in January 2017 to 45.9% by January 2018F. The reduction in the overall domestic seat capacity, coupled with higher market share for AirAsia, means that AirAsia will likely be able to raise yields in the domestic market, as it gains in heft and dominance.

The domestic market is the most important part of AirAsia’s business, as it makes up 47% of AirAsia’s seat capacity from KUL, with flights to ASEAN countries making up the next largest chunk at 37% share. Flights to Greater China and the Indian Subcontinent comprise 8% share each. Hence, improvements to the competitive environment in the domestic space are of material value to AirAsia.

For a detailed analysis of the competitive environment, and of Malindo’s route deployment and expansion strategies, please refer to our 17 July 2017 report.

AirAsia’s 2Q17F results should be announced in late-August, while its 3Q17F results should be announced in late-November. We expect both sets of results to be strong, due to a recovery in domestic yields, which will be more evident in the 3Q. MAS CEO Peter Bellew corroborated this positive outlook, as he also mentioned at his presentation, that yield conditions in the Malaysian market look considerably better in 2HFY17F than in the 1HFY17F. Meanwhile, the sequential strengthening of the ringgit against the US$, and the sequential drop in oil prices, will also help AirAsia deliver stronger earnings after the disappointing 1Q17. AirAsia has hedged 80% of its jet fuel requirements for FY17F at an average price of US$60/bbl, which will protect AirAsia against any unexpected increases in the price of oil.

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

3

Good prospects for more special dividends

The special dividends that are expected to be paid from the 70-80% stake sale of the AirAsia group’s leasing arm, Asia Aviation Capital (AAC), is a story that is already well known by investors. We believe that this is the beginning of a series of liquidation exercises that will see AirAsia realise value from its component businesses, with the proceeds ultimately paid as special dividends. Hence, the AAC sale is merely the first step of the process.

Full disposal of AAE and AACE – worth 21 sen/share in special dividends

Less well known is the expectation that AirAsia will dispose in the next six months its stakes in two smaller entities, i.e. AirAsia’s residual 25% stake in AAE Travel Pte Ltd, and its 50% stake in Asia Aviation Centre of Excellence (AACE).

AAE Travel Pte Ltd was originally a 50:50 JV set up with Expedia Inc. to penetrate the online travel agency market in Asia, utilising AirAsia’s customer base. AirAsia sold a 25% stake in AAE Travel Pte Ltd to Expedia Inc in 2015 for US$86m, and is planning to sell the remaining 25% stake before end-2017F for a higher valuation.

AACE is an in-house pilot and crew training school set up by AirAsia as a cost centre, but a 50% stake was sold to CAE Inc some years back, and the facility was opened up to external airlines and turned into a profit centre. AirAsia is planning to sell the entire 50% stake to CAE Inc for an indicative valuation of US$81m before end-2017F.

The combined proceeds of at least US$167m, or 21 sen/share, will likely be distributed as special dividends, in our view, probably by early next year. We have not incorporated this potential special dividend into our target price for AirAsia.

Partial disposal of MAA – worth 86 sen/share in special dividends

Meanwhile, AirAsia is also proposing to separately incorporate a new, wholly-owned subsidiary called Malaysia AirAsia Bhd (MAA), which will house the Malaysian aviation business currently embedded within the listed entity, AirAsia Bhd. The purpose of this exercise, in our view, is to ultimately separately list MAA, with the proceeds used to pay another round of special dividends to shareholders.

The listing status of AirAsia Bhd may be taken over by another company, which we shall call “One AirAsia” for now. One AirAsia will function as the group holding company.

AirAsia said that it plans to pay special dividends every two years. With the special dividends arising from the sale of AAC, AAE Travel and AACE expected in early-2018F, we believe that the listing of MAA will ultimately have to be achieved by 2019F, so that the special dividends arising from the partial stake sale of MAA can be declared to shareholders by early-2020F.

The AirAsia group is currently valued at about 10x CY19F P/E, assuming that the sale of 70% stake in AAC goes through, and the contribution of the leasing business falls to a 30% stake. The average LCC universe is valued at approximately 15x CY18F P/E, so the AirAsia group’s valuation has been discounted by approximately 5x multiple of its core EPS due to the current structure.

We believe this is largely because cash flows from MAA have traditionally funded losses in other associate airlines, with the largest losses suffered by Indonesia AirAsia and AirAsia Philippines. Hence investors in AirAsia Bhd bear the risks of those poorly-performing associate airlines, and mark down the valuation of the listed entity to take those risks into account.

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

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Figure 1: AirAsia plans to park its airline business in Malaysia under a separately incorporated, wholly-owned subsidiary to be called Malaysia AirAsia Bhd (MAA). AirAsia is also attempting negotiations with the governments in various countries to enable it to own 100% stake in each of the group’s airlines, via swapping partners’ stakes into shares in the main holding company. Prospects for achieving the latter are clouded by existing regulatory requirements for majority local ownership.

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

However, a separate listing of MAA will not suffer from any of the above issues, and a higher valuation will almost certainly be achieved, in our view. This is because MAA is a stable airline, with a very profitable franchise, and with increasing dominance in the Malaysian domestic aviation market.

On the assumption that MAA is listed at a P/E multiple of 12x (which is below the LCC universe average P/E multiple of 15x), and on the assumption that it can deliver sustainable earnings of RM800m p.a., a separate listing of MAA via One AirAsia selling a 30% stake, can raise cash proceeds of RM2,880m [RM800m * 12x P/E * 30% stake] for One AirAsia, which is worth 86 sen/share if paid out entirely as special dividends.

In addition, we do not expect the valuation of One AirAsia to be compressed post the listing and stake sale of MAA.

Assuming sustainable earnings of RM800m, the theoretical valuation of MAA under existing structure is around RM8bn only, given the current trading multiple of AirAsia Bhd at around 10x P/E.

[RM800m * 10x P/E * 100% stake = RM8,000m]

Post-listing, the valuation of MAA after a stake sale of 30% can, in fact, be raised to RM8.4bn, despite the lower remaining stake of 70%, assuming that MAA ultimately trades at the average LCC sector P/E multiple of 15x.

[RM800m * 15x P/E * 70% stake = RM8,400m]

Hence, shareholders of One AirAsia may be able to receive a special dividend of 86 sen/share with the sale of a 30% stake in MAA at 12x P/E multiple, without having to endure a reduction in their SOP valuation of One AirAsia despite owning a lower 70% stake in MAA post-listing.

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

5

Group core net profit breakdown and valuation

We have valued the AirAsia group’s recurring earnings at 9x core CY18F P/E multiple, which is lower than the sector average multiple of 15x, and at the lower end of the peer range of between 8x and 18x, due to its current structure whereby the strong earnings from MAA may be called upon to fund the losses elsewhere (including for potential start-up airlines in Japan, China and Vietnam). This gives us a valuation of RM2.39.

On top of that, we have added potential special dividends of RM1.12/share arising from the planned disposal of 70-80% of AAC, to derive our target price of RM3.51.

We have not included the potential special dividend payout of 21 sen/share from the likely disposal of AAE Travel and AACE (likely to be paid early-2018F), nor have we included the dividend from the potential listing of MAA in the next two years.

The key risks to our Add call on AirAsia are primarily macroeconomic, including the potential for oil prices to rally if OPEC and non-OPEC nations decide to extend production cuts beyond end-March 2018, and the potential for the US$ to strengthen as the US Federal Reserve tightens liquidity.

Figure 2: Core net profit - AirAsia group (RM m)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

M'sia pax airline core net profit ^ 434.7 175.5 519.1 1,252.1 639.5 728.5 888.7

+ Share of Thai AA (45%) * 119.6 43.7 165.1 222.8 165.2 224.0 230.5

+ Share of Indo AA (100%) * -69.1 -231.5 -277.5 83.0 142.2 147.4 177.2

+ Share of AA Philippines (100%) * -85.9 -385.5 -203.1 -62.8 -60.2 -44.3 -32.4

+ Share of AA Japan (49%) * -56.9 -9.7 -30.7 -77.1 -76.1 -74.2 -69.3

+ Share of AA India (49%) * 0.0 -30.0 -35.0 -12.3 -14.4 -8.6 -0.8

Group pax airlines core net profit 342.4 -437.5 137.9 1,405.7 796.2 972.8 1,193.9

+ Non-group leasing profits # 27.0 31.9 35.0 88.6 91.6 99.7 112.9

+ Share of AACOE (50%) 8.9 11.2 24.2 24.2 15.0 15.0 15.0

+ Share of Expedia (25%) 8.1 20.4 21.3 28.8 20.0 20.0 20.0

+ Share of BIG (50%) -3.8 -10.7 -13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

+ Share of Tune Money (40%) 0.0 0.0 -5.6 0.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0

Group core net profit 382.7 -384.6 199.4 1,547.3 918.8 1,103.5 1,337.8

Add: Exceptional gains/(losses) -156.8 -317.5 345.6 479.3 266.9 132.4 132.4

Less: Deferred taxes 19.8 85.8 361.8 -127.6 83.6 262.1 -85.4

Add: Unrecognised associate losses 198.3 700.1 -366.1 140.2 125.6 102.9 76.6

Reported attributable profit 444.0 83.8 540.7 2,039.1 1,394.8 1,600.8 1,461.5

VALUATION AFTER 80% SALE OF AAC

Group core net profit 382.7 -384.6 199.4 1,547.3 918.8 1,103.5 1,337.8

Less: 70% of total leasing profits Ω -190.5 -218.3 -250.3

Group core net profit (with AAC as a 30% associate) 728.3 885.2 1,087.5

Wtg avg no of shares (m) 2,779.4 2,781.0 2,782.0 2,783.0 3,342.0 3,342.0

Group Core EPS (sen) 13.8 -13.8 7.2 55.6 21.8 26.5

P/E target (x) 9.0

Valuation of ongoing business (RM) 2.39

Add: Expected special dividend (RM) 1.12

Share price target (RM) 3.51

^ Excludes estimated aircraft leasing profits.

* Leasing profits attributable to the AirAsia stake in each associate, e.g. 45% of Thai AA, has been added

back to the individual associate line. Assume 23% leasing profit net margin. Exception is made for IAA and

AAP, where we incorporate 100% share of gains and losses, and hence, 100% of the leasing profits are

added back into the IAA and AAP lines.

# Leasing profits earned from the non-AirAsia shareholder in each associate, e.g. 55% of Thai AA, included here.

Ω Assuming that 70% of the leasing business under Asia Aviation Capital (AAC) is sold to investors.

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

6

Sector comparison table

Figure 3: Sector Comparisons

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG

PriceTarget

Price

Recurring

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

(x)

Dividend

Yield (%)

(local curr) (local curr) CY17F CY18F CY17F CY18F CY17F CY17F CY17F

AirAsia Berhad AIRA MK Add RM3.25 RM3.51 2,535 11.8 9.8 -9.0% 1.23 1.06 11.9% 8.4 1.8%

AirAsia X Berhad AAX MK Reduce RM0.40 RM0.25 382 38.4 38.4 1.3% 1.38 1.30 3.8% 5.8 0.0%

Asia Aviation PCL AAV TB Hold THB6.20 THB6.16 898 16.9 12.1 15.7% 1.38 1.29 8.2% 12.7 2.5%

Cebu Air CEB PM Add Php97.60 Php108 1,168 7.5 8.2 -5.3% 1.49 1.28 21.6% 5.6 1.5%

Nok Air NOK TB Not Rated THB4.72 - 201 na na na 21.70 0.97 7876.8% na 0.0%

SpiceJet SJET IN Not Rated Rs113.50 - 1,056 14.9 12.9 18.6% na na -72.5% 12.1 0.0%

Air Arabia AIRARABI UH Not Rated AED1.04 - 1,321 9.5 10.5 1.6% 0.89 0.89 9.4% 6.7 6.7%

Spring Airlines 601021 CH Not Rated Rmb32.96 - 3,891 26.8 22.3 17.9% 3.68 3.12 13.6% 16.0 0.5%

Ryanair RYA ID Not Rated €18.42 - 25,280 18.8 14.8 8.2% 5.60 4.50 33.0% 11.3 0.0%

easyJet EZJ LN Not Rated THB14.09 - 7,264 15.0 17.8 -4.3% 2.03 1.91 14.0% 8.6 8.1%

Southwest LUV US Not Rated US$62.02 - 37,501 16.5 15.9 10.5% 4.72 3.98 27.9% 7.4 0.6%

JetBlue JBLU US Not Rated US$23.75 - 7,925 10.7 11.6 -2.1% 2.02 1.75 18.4% 6.7 0.0%

GOL GOL US Not Rated US$14.52 - 1,008 68.8 na -26.0% na na -1.0% 6.8 0.2%

Pegasus PGSUS TI Not Rated TRY21.50 - 617 na na na 1.38 1.35 -9.9% 26.6 0.0%

WestJet WJA CN Not Rated C$25.23 - 2,320 10.4 11.3 4.7% 1.52 1.29 14.2% 4.5 2.1%

Low-Cost Carriers 16.2 14.9 4.3% 3.34 2.86 21.4% 8.3 1.2%

Cathay Pacific Airways 293 HK Hold HK$12.16 HK$10.80 6,124 na 263.5 na 0.88 0.82 -3.5% 14.6 0.0%

Singapore Airlines SIA SP Reduce S$10.15 S$10.00 8,818 37.5 30.7 9.6% 0.91 0.89 2.4% 5.7 2.3%

Garuda GIAA IJ Not Rated Rp354 - 687 85.2 26.5 47.3% 0.69 0.68 0.8% 5.8 0.0%

Thai Airways THAI TB Not Rated THB20.10 - 1,296 13.0 17.5 -0.3% 1.39 1.23 10.3% 7.9 0.0%

Bangkok Airways BA TB Not Rated THB18.40 - 1,141 22.2 20.9 9.2% 1.28 1.21 5.6% 9.2 3.9%

China Eastern 670 HK Not Rated HK$4.63 - 12,495 12.0 9.9 7.0% 1.20 1.07 4.7% 5.3 2.5%

China Southern 1055 HK Not Rated HK$6.17 - 11,061 6.2 10.1 2.0% 1.24 1.09 7.4% 4.6 1.9%

Air China 753 HK Not Rated HK$7.48 - 18,031 11.6 11.1 4.1% 1.26 1.09 5.2% 4.1 1.9%

Korean Air 003490 KS Not Rated W35,450 - 2,967 na 5.1 na 1.77 1.24 -34.8% 6.1 0.0%

Asiana Airlines 020560 KS Not Rated W5,540 - 1,003 20.8 6.1 22.2% 1.36 1.04 5.8% 7.3 0.0%

China Airlines 2610 TT Not Rated TWD9.24 - 1,662 94.9 19.0 na 0.96 0.87 1.0% 6.1 0.0%

EVA Airways 2618 TT Not Rated TWD15.35 - 2,045 18.3 14.8 4.1% 1.24 1.09 6.2% 5.2 1.2%

Qantas Airways QAN AU Not Rated A$5.44 12,675 18.5 22.0 0.5% 4.96 4.26 28.9% 6.7 1.5%

Virgin Australia VAH AU Not Rated A$0.18 1,907 65.4 na na 1.37 1.37 2.9% 8.5 0.0%

Turkish Airlines THYAO TI Not Rated TRY8.81 - 3,411 na 21.7 na 0.89 0.67 -0.3% 19.0 0.0%

Full-Service Carriers 36.5 17.7 5.7% 1.30 1.16 2.9% 6.3 1.2%

Malaysia Airports Holdings MAHB MK Add RM8.75 RM8.30 3,388 44.4 26.1 33.7% 1.67 1.63 3.8% 10.1 1.7%

Airports of Thailand AOT TB Not Rated THB48.75 - 20,568 35.2 31.4 10.3% 5.70 5.12 15.9% 21.6 1.4%

Beijing Capital International 694 HK Not Rated HK$12.22 - 6,778 58.4 45.1 17.7% 2.43 2.16 5.8% 5.7 1.6%

Shanghai International 600009 CH Not Rated Rmb37.66 - 10,700 25.0 22.9 9.0% 3.33 2.96 13.1% 18.5 1.2%

Auckland Int'l Airport AIA NZ Not Rated NZ$6.94 - 11,336 69.4 66.0 3.4% 3.74 3.43 5.8% 39.9 1.4%

Sydney Airport SYD AU Not Rated A$6.96 - 20,176 87.2 69.5 10.5% 25.59 24.04 30.5% 32.3 2.6%

Aeroports de Paris ADP FP Not Rated €139.75 - 15,791 35.5 29.8 5.6% 3.49 3.02 10.2% 14.1 1.8%

TAV Havalimanlari TAVHL TI Not Rated TRY20.90 - 2,130 15.2 10.3 20.1% 2.50 2.05 16.6% 6.3 3.3%

Airports 43.7 36.9 5.3% 4.76 4.29 10.7% 19.1 1.7%

Average (all) 25.3 20.0 5.4% 2.70 2.37 9.7% 8.5 1.4%

P/BV (x)Company

Bloomberg

TickerRecom.

Market Cap

(US$ m)

Core P/E (x) 3-year EPS

CAGR (%)

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

7

BY THE NUMBERS

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA

-20.0%

-11.4%

-2.9%

5.7%

14.3%

22.9%

31.4%

40.0%

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Jan-13A Jan-14A Jan-15A Jan-16A Jan-17F Jan-18F

P/BV vs ROE

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (rhs)

-7,300%-2,856%1,589%6,033%10,478%14,922%19,367%23,811%28,256%32,700%

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

Jan-13A

Jan-14A

Jan-15A

Jan-16A

Jan-17FJan-18F

12-mth Fwd FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth

12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs)

FD Core EPS Growth (rhs)

Profit & Loss

(RMm) Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Total Net Revenues 5,873 6,946 7,178 8,000 8,638

Gross Profit 1,861 2,696 2,127 2,411 2,761

Operating EBITDA 1,861 2,696 2,127 2,411 2,761

Depreciation And Amortisation (704) (745) (799) (929) (1,032)

Operating EBIT 1,157 1,951 1,328 1,482 1,730

Financial Income/(Expense) (554) (525) (468) (489) (528)

Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. (800) 181 133 166 168

Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 66 84 80 80 80

Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) (131) 1,691 1,074 1,239 1,450

Exceptional Items 346 479 267 132 132

Pre-tax Profit 215 2,170 1,340 1,372 1,582

Taxation 326 (134) 54 229 (120)

Exceptional Income - post-tax

Profit After Tax 541 2,036 1,395 1,601 1,461

Minority Interests (0) 3 0 0 0

Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 0

FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax

Other Adjustments - post-tax

Net Profit 541 2,039 1,395 1,601 1,461

Recurring Net Profit 199 1,547 919 1,103 1,338

Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 199 1,547 919 1,103 1,338

Cash Flow

(RMm) Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

EBITDA 1,861 2,696 2,127 2,411 2,761

Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.

Change In Working Capital (138) (1,401) 237 41 (30)

(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions

Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense

Other Operating Cashflow 927 543 0 0 0

Net Interest (Paid)/Received 0 0 0 0 0

Tax Paid (31) (18) (29) (33) (35)

Cashflow From Operations 2,619 1,820 2,335 2,420 2,696

Capex (273) (620) (2,912) (4,452) (2,501)

Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries 1,160 839 970 1,164 1,164

Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments 0 0 0 0 0

Other Investing Cashflow 276 (69) 0 0 0

Cash Flow From Investing 1,164 150 (1,943) (3,289) (1,337)

Debt Raised/(repaid) (1,215) (2,207) 1,107 1,998 173

Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 0 (0) 1,029 0 0

Shares Repurchased 0 0 0 0 0

Dividends Paid (83) (111) (201) (234) (267)

Preferred Dividends

Other Financing Cashflow (1,681) (466) (388) (409) (448)

Cash Flow From Financing (2,979) (2,785) 1,548 1,356 (543)

Total Cash Generated 803 (814) 1,940 486 817

Free Cashflow To Equity 2,568 (236) 1,500 1,129 1,532

Free Cashflow To Firm 3,782 1,970 392 (869) 1,359

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BY THE NUMBERS… cont’d

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA

Balance Sheet

(RMm) Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Total Cash And Equivalents 2,431 1,742 3,682 4,168 4,984

Total Debtors 1,345 2,643 2,671 2,770 2,847

Inventories 35 44 44 44 44

Total Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0

Total Current Assets 3,812 4,429 6,396 6,982 7,876

Fixed Assets 10,895 10,793 12,028 14,520 14,958

Total Investments 0 0 0 0 0

Intangible Assets 848 823 907 1,169 1,083

Total Other Non-Current Assets 5,724 5,858 6,126 6,430 6,714

Total Non-current Assets 17,467 17,474 19,060 22,119 22,756

Short-term Debt 2,432 1,945 1,945 1,945 1,945

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt

Total Creditors 1,624 1,965 2,335 2,584 2,717

Other Current Liabilities 1,123 1,091 1,121 1,151 1,181

Total Current Liabilities 5,179 5,001 5,401 5,680 5,843

Total Long-term Debt 10,185 8,634 9,566 11,564 11,737

Hybrid Debt - Debt Component

Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 1,467 1,653 1,653 1,653 1,653

Total Non-current Liabilities 11,652 10,287 11,219 13,217 13,390

Total Provisions 0 0 0 0 0

Total Liabilities 16,832 15,288 16,620 18,897 19,233

Shareholders' Equity 4,447 6,619 8,842 10,209 11,403

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0

Total Equity 4,447 6,619 8,842 10,209 11,403

Key Ratios

Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Revenue Growth 8.6% 18.3% 3.3% 11.5% 8.0%

Operating EBITDA Growth 28.0% 44.9% (21.1%) 13.4% 14.5%

Operating EBITDA Margin 31.7% 38.8% 29.6% 30.1% 32.0%

Net Cash Per Share (RM) (3.66) (3.18) (2.34) (2.80) (2.60)

BVPS (RM) 1.60 2.38 2.65 3.05 3.41

Gross Interest Cover 1.89 3.59 2.66 2.77 2.97

Effective Tax Rate 0.00% 6.18% 0.00% 0.00% 7.61%

Net Dividend Payout Ratio NA 19.8% 19.2% 19.4% 18.9%

Accounts Receivables Days 37.54 35.91 43.31 41.76 42.39

Inventory Days 2.43 3.41 3.17 2.87 2.72

Accounts Payables Days 109.0 154.5 155.4 160.6 164.6

ROIC (%) 4.96% 9.09% 5.83% 6.07% 6.12%

ROCE (%) 7.1% 11.5% 7.2% 6.9% 7.3%

Return On Average Assets 1.19% 9.62% 5.89% 5.77% 6.06%

Key Drivers

Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Av. Seat Km (ASK, Yoy Chg %) 8.1% 7.2% 10.0% 8.6% 6.3%

Rev. Psg Km (RPK, Yoy Chg %) 10.0% 15.6% 8.1% 8.6% 6.2%

Passenger Load Factor (%) 80.2% 86.5% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

Pax yld per RPK (RM) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Pax rev. per ASK (RM) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total Cost Per ATK (RM) - - - - -

Fuel Cost Per ATK (RM) - - - - -

Non-fuel Cost Per ATK (RM) 3,705.8 3,972.7 4,368.7 4,745.8 5,042.1

Jet Fuel Price (US$/barrel) 81.3 59.0 66.3 75.0 75.0

Fleet Size (no. Of Planes) 171 174 203 229 249

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constitute independent “investment research” under the applicable rules of the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Any such non-independent report must be considered as a marketing communication.

United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S. registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited, and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “U.S. Institutional Investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds, and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc.

CIMB Securities (USA) Inc does not make a market on other securities mentioned in the report.

Neither CIMB Securities (USA) Inc., nor its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of any of the securities mentioned in the past 12 months.

CIMB Securities (USA) Inc., or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services from AirAsia Berhad in the past 12 months.

Neither CIMB Securities (USA) Inc., nor its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from any of the company mentioned within the next 3 months.

Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )

AirAsia Berhad (AIRA MK)

Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)

Add 51.2% 5.5%

Hold 35.7% 3.1%

Reduce 11.9% 0.1%

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 30 June 2017

1288 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 30 June 2017

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17

Price Close

2.8

8

3.2

5

3.3

5

3.5

0

3.2

0

2.5

0 2.5

0

2.2

6 1.1

4

1.8

0

2.4

3

2.7

0 3.1

3

4.1

5

3.5

4

3.7

3

3.5

1

3.5

1

Recommendations & Target Price

Add Hold Reduce Not Rated

AirlinesMalaysiaAirAsia BerhadJuly 27, 2017

14

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2016, Anti-Corruption 2016

AAV – Very Good, n/a, ADVANC – Very Good, Certified, AEONTS – Good, n/a, AMATA – Excellent, Declared, ANAN – Very Good, Declared, AOT – Excellent, Declared, AP – Very Good, Declared, ASK – Very Good, Declared, ASP – Very Good, Certified, BANPU – Very Good, Certified, BAY – Excellent, Certified, BBL – Very Good, Certified, BCH – not available, Declared, BCP - Excellent, Certified, BEM – Very Good, n/a, BDMS – Very Good, n/a, BEAUTY – Good, Declared, BEC - Good, n/a, BH - Good, Declared, BIGC - Excellent, Declared, BJC – Good, n/a, BJCHI – Good, Declared, BLA – Very Good, Certified, BPP – not available, n/a, BR - Good, n/a, BTS - Excellent, Certified, CBG – Good, n/a, CCET – not available, n/a, CENTEL – Very Good, Certified, CHG – Very Good, n/a, CK – Excellent, n/a, COL – Very Good, Declared, CPALL – not available, Declared, CPF – Excellent, Declared, CPN - Excellent, Certified, DELTA - Excellent, Declared, DEMCO – Excellent, Certified, DIF – not available, n/a, DTAC – Excellent, Certified, EA – Very Good, Declared, ECL – Good, Certified, EGCO - Excellent, Certified, EPG – Good, n/a, GFPT - Excellent, Declared, GLOBAL – Very Good, Declared, GLOW – Very Good, Certified, GPSC – Excellent, Declared, GRAMMY - Excellent, n/a, GUNKUL – Very Good, Declared, HANA - Excellent, Certified, HMPRO - Excellent, Declared, ICHI – Very Good, Declared, INTUCH - Excellent, Certified, ITD – Good, n/a, IVL - Excellent, Certified, JAS – not available, Declared, JASIF – not available, n/a, JUBILE – Good, Declared, KAMART – not available, n/a, KBANK - Excellent, Certified, KCE - Excellent, Certified, KGI – Good, Certified, KKP – Excellent, Certified, KSL – Very Good, Declared, KTB - Excellent, Certified, KTC – Excellent, Certified, LH - Very Good, n/a, LPN – Excellent, Declared, M – Very Good, Declared, MAJOR - Good, n/a, MAKRO – Good, Declared, MALEE – Very Good, Declared, MBKET – Very Good, Certified, MC – Very Good, Declared, MCOT – Excellent, Declared, MEGA – Very Good, Declared, MINT - Excellent, Certified, MTLS – Very Good, Declared, NYT – Excellent, n/a, OISHI – Very Good, n/a, PLANB – Very Good, Declared, PLAT – Good, Declared, PSH – not available, n/a, PSL - Excellent, Certified, PTT - Excellent, Certified, PTTEP - Excellent, Certified, PTTGC - Excellent, Certified, QH – Excellent, Declared, RATCH – Excellent, Certified, ROBINS – Very Good, Declared, RS – Very Good, n/a, SAMART - Excellent, n/a, SAPPE - Good, n/a, SAT – Excellent, Certified, SAWAD – Good, n/a, SC – Excellent, Declared, SCB - Excellent, Certified, SCBLIF – not available, n/a, SCC – Excellent, Certified, SCN – Good, Declared, SCCC - Excellent, Declared, SIM - Excellent, n/a, SIRI - Good, n/a, SPA - Good, n/a, SPALI - Excellent, Declared, SPRC – Very Good, Declared, STA – Very Good, Declared, STEC – Excellent, n/a, SVI – Excellent, Certified, TASCO – Very Good, Declared, TCAP – Excellent, Certified, THAI – Very Good, Declared, THANI – Very Good, Certified, THCOM – Excellent, Certified, THRE – Very Good, Certified, THREL – Very Good, Certified, TICON – Very Good, Declared, TIPCO – Very Good, Certified, TISCO - Excellent, Certified, TK – Very Good, n/a, TKN – Good, n/a, TMB - Excellent, Certified, TNR – not available, n/a, TOP - Excellent, Certified, TPCH – Good, n/a, TPIPP – not available, n/a, TRUE – Very Good, Declared, TTW – Very Good, Declared, TU – Excellent, Declared, TVO – Very Good, Declared UNIQ – not available, Declared, VGI – Excellent, Declared, WHA – not available, Declared, WHART – not available, n/a, WORK – not available, n/a.

Companies participating in Thailand’s Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of October 28, 2016) are categorized into:

- Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and

- Companies certified by CAC

CIMB Recommendation Framework

Stock Ratings Definition:

Add The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.

Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.

Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.

The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.

Sector Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.

Neutral A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.

Underweight An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.

Country Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Neutral A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Underweight An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.