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Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare CentreOperational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element

Alan CowdaleAlan CowdaleSenior Scientific AdviserSenior Scientific Adviser

RAF WaddingtonRAF Waddington

Operational Analysis Support to Operational Analysis Support to RAF During Operation TELICRAF During Operation TELIC

PurposePurpose

Provision of Timely,Provision of Timely,Integrated Mission Support Integrated Mission Support

at the at the OperationalOperational,,

TacticalTactical & & TechnicalTechnical Levels of Warfare.Levels of Warfare.

SenSciAdv TORSenSciAdv TOR

‘… ‘… responsible for conducting studies responsible for conducting studies and providing Operational Analysis and and providing Operational Analysis and scientific advice to CinC STC and his scientific advice to CinC STC and his staff on any issue which affects the staff on any issue which affects the conduct of Air Operations.’conduct of Air Operations.’

Operation Analysis Operation Analysis

Support to OperationsSupport to Operations Prepare to Support OperationsPrepare to Support Operations

– staff trainingstaff training– model developmentmodel development– database constructiondatabase construction

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar

Impact Trace

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Cross Track

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia

ACHQ QuestionsACHQ Questions

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia CFACC - PSAB Saudi ArabiaCFACC - PSAB Saudi Arabia

Operational Objective Achievement IndicatorsOperational Objective Achievement Indicators

80%MA.

40% 80%HD.

40% 80%LB.

40% 80%MC.

40% 80%LE.

40%

CFACHQCFACHQ

Strategy to Task AnalysisStrategy to Task Analysis Counter AirCounter Air

– Counter IADSCounter IADS destroy C2 nodesdestroy C2 nodes

– FOE physical destruction of key nodesFOE physical destruction of key nodes

– DE IADS unable to coordinate defenceDE IADS unable to coordinate defence

– MOE1 % of IADS nodes destroyedMOE1 % of IADS nodes destroyed

– MOE2 no loss of aircraft to IADSMOE2 no loss of aircraft to IADS

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia Squadron SupportSquadron Support

– Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4– Al Udied - Tornado GR4Al Udied - Tornado GR4– Al Jabr - Harrier GR7Al Jabr - Harrier GR7

DOB QuestionsDOB Questions

Segments

OAE OutputsOAE Outputs

UK performance databaseUK performance database– ATOATO– mission reportsmission reports– imageryimagery– TIALD videoTIALD video– interviewinterview

airframe databaseairframe database

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia Squadron SupportSquadron Support

– Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4– Al Udied - Tornado GR4Al Udied - Tornado GR4– Al Jabr - Harrier GR7Al Jabr - Harrier GR7

PJHQPJHQ– Storm ShadowStorm Shadow

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia Squadron SupportSquadron Support

– Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4Ali Al Salem - Tornado GR4– Al Udied - Tornado GR4Al Udied - Tornado GR4– Al Jabr - Harrier GR7Al Jabr - Harrier GR7

PJHQPJHQ– Storm ShadowStorm Shadow

Home TeamHome Team

OAE StaffingOAE Staffing NCHQ - QatarNCHQ - Qatar ACHQ - PSAB Saudi ArabiaACHQ - PSAB Saudi Arabia Squadron SupportSquadron Support PJHQPJHQ Home TeamHome Team

– IMSIMS

Home Team QuestionsHome Team Questions

Post ConflictPost Conflict

Post ConflictPost Conflict

Support to Lessons IdentifiedSupport to Lessons Identified Campaign AnalysisCampaign Analysis Aircrew QuestionnaireAircrew Questionnaire Coalition Weapon Effectiveness TeamCoalition Weapon Effectiveness Team

Al Taji IOCAl Taji IOC

LessonsLessons

LessonsLessons

Need to be readyNeed to be ready– staff trainingstaff training– toolstools– datadata

Need connectivityNeed connectivity– internallyinternally– externallyexternally

MissionMission

““To determine what the user wants, what he To determine what the user wants, what he ought to want, what he gets, what he ought to ought to want, what he gets, what he ought to get; and what he ought to have and do in order get; and what he ought to have and do in order to get what he ought to want out of what he to get what he ought to want out of what he gets.”gets.”

Robert Watson-Watt 1942Robert Watson-Watt 1942

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