-
Air Transportation Network Load Balancing using Auction-Based
Slot Allocation for Demand ManagementGeorge L. DonohueLoan Le and
C-H. ChenAir Transportation Systems Engineering LaboratoryDept. of
Systems Engineering & Operations ResearchGeorge Mason
UniversityFairfax, VAHarvard University18 March, 2004
-
Outline
Necessity of Demand ManagementHistory of US Demand
ManagementAuction model for airport arrival slotsauctioneer
optimization modelairline optimization modelAtlanta airport case
studysimulated scenariosresults and interpretationObservations
-
Why Demand Management?Over-scheduling causes delay and
potentially compromises safetyAtlanta Airport - FAA Airport
Capacity Benchmark 2001
Chart1
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Schedule
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Operations
TOTAL SCHEDULED OPERATIONS AND CURRENT OPTIMUM RATE
BOUNDARIES
air-delays-qtr
Analysis By Airport By Qtr.Hour Report
Good day for ATL
From 9/13/2000 To 9/13/2000 : ATL
Periods Before 07:00 and After 22:00 at
bottom10092.510092.5Dep.Dep.Arr.Arr.
Arr.DeptDelayDelayDelayDelay200185
AirportLocalQtrSch.Sch.ASPMASPMCan.Can.% O.T.% O.T.Gate*Taxi
Out**Arbrn*Taxi-Block*Arrival*Est.Est.Est.Est.Sch-Min.Min.Min.Min.TotalEstEst.
HourDep.Arr.Dep.Arr.Dep.Arri.Dep.Arr.In*FacilityModelFac.Model.Opt.ExcessGateT.O.Arbn.Arr.Ops.Fac.Model
ATL71112212230075958.752.632.860.930.471.952523.122523.1-140105326645335046
ATL272262201509521.337.932.221.150.774.682523.122523.1-1801284849103295046
ATL39231021017010011.93.952.420.170.090.142523.122523.1-16011940513325046
ATL412211300901002.459.10.3300.330.332523.122523.1-1302710011145046
ATL8121319420847510.059.7520.52.2572523.122523.1-40191185828245046
ATL23917371510941002.410.81.60.720.40.132523.122523.1141489400242565046
ATL3352134201170909.6711.515.451.140.92.62523.122523.1102432939110952565046
ATL4142914260185887.719.517.152.783.574.032523.122523.1-1113108133186105435046
ATL917376350083857.834.889.941.893.374.942523.122523.1-1804729348173445046
ATL252452400100912.22.5812.870.891.413.162523.122523.1-200111330976295046
ATL31911181000881005.385.1311.30.640.20.22523.122523.1-6097921132305046
ATL4257236009110036.682.331.03002523.122523.10069154140325046
ATL10132528420961002.428.610.250.7002523.122523.1776824110375046
ATL2271227110192903.79.851.634.50.932523.122523.1291002661833395046
ATL3262223242086918.8210.371.872.470.794.542523.122523.111020323945109485046
ATL4102592202100953.557.472.133.150.272.132523.122523.1-15032674747355046
ATL111527325111009606.262.082.240.241.82523.122523.1-2000195245325046
ATL2716716007110094.772.681.330.51.812523.122523.1-18063334329235046
ATL31651261091665.163.1600.560.1611.162523.122523.1-906238067215046
ATL4271622142086854.776.682.710.821.144.282523.122523.1221051473860435046
ATL121281628121396833.577.822.51.7113.912523.122523.1351002193047445046
ATL2212421220085955.957.563.771.310.593.632523.122523.1-411251598380455046
ATL31825142301789516.574.884.431.371.562.862523.122523.1-702326810266435046
ATL48256240066959.332.844.541.50.52.332523.122523.1-170561710956335046
ATL131141412140091713.584.535.711.210.7811.922523.122523.1-110435480167285046
ATL2115940088756.443.7300.440.2510.752523.122523.1-1405834043165046
ATL341540510801007.95.3540.080.41.22523.122523.11616316214206465046
ATL4311930151080937.963.762.42.42.464.862523.122523.16222391133673505046
ATL141122110191090893.63.962.940.891.315.682523.122523.1-139364056108335046
ATL272372002100952.422.752.60.580.32.52523.122523.1-18017195250305046
ATL353242911100863.752.353.581.060.685.272523.122523.1-200159104153375046
ATL4425424011001003.251.855.160.750.081.332523.122523.1-21013712432295046
ATL1511518151501809312.25.775.260.103.332523.122523.1-100183877950335046
ATL2177126001001002.913.9830.190.662.332523.122523.1-8035481814245046
ATL337103090086887.736.23.770.310.223.442523.122523.112122321863431475046
ATL42731262511808410.428.034.041.870.65.62523.122523.1214271209101140585046
ATL161272123150391933.958.225.862.441.333.062523.122523.1216911898846485046
ATL2122812250191927.9110.715.562.040.7210.482523.122523.1-13395129139262405046
ATL313279220288907.226.727.812.720.093.52523.122523.1-120656017277405046
ATL4723623101009108.384.691.103.342523.122523.1-18005010877305046
ATL171141311130090922.728.351.460.5302.152523.122523.1-11030921928275046
ATL226623500911003.568.190.4000.42523.122523.1118218822325046
ATL338103480291757.9113.252.870.22116.52523.122523.1131426945123132485046
ATL43516261401761008.4216.3810.6500.642523.122523.11024219426149515046
ATL181262024161087874.2517.334.251.972.564.432523.122523.11251024166871465046
ATL242532310339145.3310.66.951.381.913.652523.122523.1-2141363216084295046
ATL362462510100761.833.28.62.111.412.882523.122523.1-1901119215322305046
ATL432332002668521.334.238.31.431.13.152523.122523.1-220641316663265046
ATL191530531001008321.766.030.341.7712.352523.122523.1-200109187383355046
ATL21691481085624.784.853.370.371.525.622523.122523.1-90676827205255046
ATL3331231120083837.935.53.751.152.0810.082523.122523.18824617145121455046
ATL4291025100084809.0811.455.30.741.782523.122523.14122272865380395046
ATL201372231180077839.0611.482.275.163.835.662523.122523.1122428135641102595046
ATL2292325240096874.6414.183.663.911.3711.22523.122523.142811635588269525046
ATL352752502608427.611.413.883.860.24.562523.122523.1-2081385797114325046
ATL41211210010095146.64.332.890.144.042523.122523.1-2401479185225046
ATL2112183140110010004.764.852.10.070.072523.122523.1-230014681205046
ATL21312911101001002.557.360.90.2900.632523.122523.1-1202366107255046
ATL3261225111092818.727.330.541.34.4592523.122523.111218183699385046
ATL423922811100871.3610.411.53.350.753.372523.122523.1-20302291227325046
10801087970999263351835381
* - Actual Compared to Flight Plan (Average Minutes
Difference)
** - Actual Compared to Unimpeded (Average Minutes
Difference)
ATL011324010100435.11.50.51.253
ATL0200240000244.600037.5
ATL03033400100753.334.60.250028.75
ATL040012000100155.60000
ATL1100340066757.334.9300.10.514.25
ATL1200200000365.60000
ATL130162001001008.165.60015
ATL1400220050100415.60000
ATL2100120010050105.600.5038
ATL22000100000000018
ATL2300100000195.60000
ATL24001100100005.601017
ATL3100000000000000
ATL320013001003305.600.665.3327
ATL330002000500001014.5
ATL340102000500000013
ATL41021500080501.600.208.6
ATL42012100010033.51.60100
ATL43001200100100300000
ATL4421140010050900.50025.25
ATL5109111001006301.60.720.523.4510.36
ATL520435006680151.610.1644.4
ATL530214001007501.600.250.2512.75
ATL540101000100000050
ATL61404110100004.3501122
ATL621521640093753.562.600.8505.5
ATL63101151006010010.62.570225
ATL645107801718717.141.421.870.9702
ATL221362232210184957.6213.11.142.812
ATL22119172100761007.649.9124.131.191.33
ATL332342400759110.755.472.291.761.453.41
ATL41182170010010018.13.641.610.821.41
ATL231334300256631.753.1900.56017
ATL21241350092606.533.650.40.441423.4
ATL32752460179669.296.051.160.131.6616.16
ATL4104104011001001.55.810.25000
Total1230122611531180273885887.157.943.961.591.15.24
air-delays-qtr
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Departures
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Departures
SCHEDULED DEPARTURES AND CURRENT DEPARTURE RATE BOUNDARIES,
OPTIMUM RATE CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Taxi Out
Gate Delay
Average Delay (Min.) per Departure
TAXI-OUT AND GATE DELAY PER DEPARTURE, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Excess departures
Number of Flights
CUMULATIVE DEPARTURES OVER OPTIMUM RATE, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Gate Delay
Taxi-Out Delay
Minutes of Delay
DEPARTURE GATE AND TAXI-OUT DELAYS, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Arrivals
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Arrivals
SCHEDULED ARRIVALS AND CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE BOUNDARIES, OPTIMUM
RATE CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Airborne Delay
Arrival Delay
Minutes of Delay
AIRBORNE AND ARRIVAL DELAYS, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Schedule
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Operations
TOTAL SCHEDULED OPERATIONS AND CURRENT OPTIMUM RATE
BOUNDARIES
-
Data Indicates Loss of Separation Increases at High Capacity
FractionOver-scheduling causes accident pre-cursor events and
potentially compromises safetyStatistics at ATL, BWI, DCA and LGA
airports (Haynie)
_1135023276.doc
Hazard Reports 1988-2001
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Percentage Capacity Used
#reports
Near Midair Collision
Runway Incursion
Lost of Legal Separation
_1135023786.doc
Hazard Reports 1988-2001
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Percentage Capacity Used
#reports
Near Midair Collision
Runway Incursion
Lost of Legal Separation
_1135022763.doc
Hazard Reports 1988-2001
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Percentage Capacity Used
Number Reports Filed
Near Midair Collision
Runway Incursion
Lost of Legal Separation
-
Observed WV Separation Violations vs. Capacity RatioHaynie, GMU
2002
-
Flight Banking at Fortress Hubs Creates Inefficient Runway
UtilizationOver-scheduling causes accident pre-cursor events and
potentially compromises safetyAtlanta Airport - FAA Airport
Capacity Benchmark 2001Under-scheduling wastes runway capacity
Chart1
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335046.25
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375046.25
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325046.25
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Schedule
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Operations
TOTAL SCHEDULED OPERATIONS AND CURRENT OPTIMUM RATE
BOUNDARIES
air-delays-qtr
Analysis By Airport By Qtr.Hour Report
Good day for ATL
From 9/13/2000 To 9/13/2000 : ATL
Periods Before 07:00 and After 22:00 at
bottom10092.510092.5Dep.Dep.Arr.Arr.
Arr.DeptDelayDelayDelayDelay200185
AirportLocalQtrSch.Sch.ASPMASPMCan.Can.% O.T.% O.T.Gate*Taxi
Out**Arbrn*Taxi-Block*Arrival*Est.Est.Est.Est.Sch-Min.Min.Min.Min.TotalEstEst.
HourDep.Arr.Dep.Arr.Dep.Arri.Dep.Arr.In*FacilityModelFac.Model.Opt.ExcessGateT.O.Arbn.Arr.Ops.Fac.Model
ATL71112212230075958.752.632.860.930.471.952523.122523.1-140105326645335046
ATL272262201509521.337.932.221.150.774.682523.122523.1-1801284849103295046
ATL39231021017010011.93.952.420.170.090.142523.122523.1-16011940513325046
ATL412211300901002.459.10.3300.330.332523.122523.1-1302710011145046
ATL8121319420847510.059.7520.52.2572523.122523.1-40191185828245046
ATL23917371510941002.410.81.60.720.40.132523.122523.1141489400242565046
ATL3352134201170909.6711.515.451.140.92.62523.122523.1102432939110952565046
ATL4142914260185887.719.517.152.783.574.032523.122523.1-1113108133186105435046
ATL917376350083857.834.889.941.893.374.942523.122523.1-1804729348173445046
ATL252452400100912.22.5812.870.891.413.162523.122523.1-200111330976295046
ATL31911181000881005.385.1311.30.640.20.22523.122523.1-6097921132305046
ATL4257236009110036.682.331.03002523.122523.10069154140325046
ATL10132528420961002.428.610.250.7002523.122523.1776824110375046
ATL2271227110192903.79.851.634.50.932523.122523.1291002661833395046
ATL3262223242086918.8210.371.872.470.794.542523.122523.111020323945109485046
ATL4102592202100953.557.472.133.150.272.132523.122523.1-15032674747355046
ATL111527325111009606.262.082.240.241.82523.122523.1-2000195245325046
ATL2716716007110094.772.681.330.51.812523.122523.1-18063334329235046
ATL31651261091665.163.1600.560.1611.162523.122523.1-906238067215046
ATL4271622142086854.776.682.710.821.144.282523.122523.1221051473860435046
ATL121281628121396833.577.822.51.7113.912523.122523.1351002193047445046
ATL2212421220085955.957.563.771.310.593.632523.122523.1-411251598380455046
ATL31825142301789516.574.884.431.371.562.862523.122523.1-702326810266435046
ATL48256240066959.332.844.541.50.52.332523.122523.1-170561710956335046
ATL131141412140091713.584.535.711.210.7811.922523.122523.1-110435480167285046
ATL2115940088756.443.7300.440.2510.752523.122523.1-1405834043165046
ATL341540510801007.95.3540.080.41.22523.122523.11616316214206465046
ATL4311930151080937.963.762.42.42.464.862523.122523.16222391133673505046
ATL141122110191090893.63.962.940.891.315.682523.122523.1-139364056108335046
ATL272372002100952.422.752.60.580.32.52523.122523.1-18017195250305046
ATL353242911100863.752.353.581.060.685.272523.122523.1-200159104153375046
ATL4425424011001003.251.855.160.750.081.332523.122523.1-21013712432295046
ATL1511518151501809312.25.775.260.103.332523.122523.1-100183877950335046
ATL2177126001001002.913.9830.190.662.332523.122523.1-8035481814245046
ATL337103090086887.736.23.770.310.223.442523.122523.112122321863431475046
ATL42731262511808410.428.034.041.870.65.62523.122523.1214271209101140585046
ATL161272123150391933.958.225.862.441.333.062523.122523.1216911898846485046
ATL2122812250191927.9110.715.562.040.7210.482523.122523.1-13395129139262405046
ATL313279220288907.226.727.812.720.093.52523.122523.1-120656017277405046
ATL4723623101009108.384.691.103.342523.122523.1-18005010877305046
ATL171141311130090922.728.351.460.5302.152523.122523.1-11030921928275046
ATL226623500911003.568.190.4000.42523.122523.1118218822325046
ATL338103480291757.9113.252.870.22116.52523.122523.1131426945123132485046
ATL43516261401761008.4216.3810.6500.642523.122523.11024219426149515046
ATL181262024161087874.2517.334.251.972.564.432523.122523.11251024166871465046
ATL242532310339145.3310.66.951.381.913.652523.122523.1-2141363216084295046
ATL362462510100761.833.28.62.111.412.882523.122523.1-1901119215322305046
ATL432332002668521.334.238.31.431.13.152523.122523.1-220641316663265046
ATL191530531001008321.766.030.341.7712.352523.122523.1-200109187383355046
ATL21691481085624.784.853.370.371.525.622523.122523.1-90676827205255046
ATL3331231120083837.935.53.751.152.0810.082523.122523.18824617145121455046
ATL4291025100084809.0811.455.30.741.782523.122523.14122272865380395046
ATL201372231180077839.0611.482.275.163.835.662523.122523.1122428135641102595046
ATL2292325240096874.6414.183.663.911.3711.22523.122523.142811635588269525046
ATL352752502608427.611.413.883.860.24.562523.122523.1-2081385797114325046
ATL41211210010095146.64.332.890.144.042523.122523.1-2401479185225046
ATL2112183140110010004.764.852.10.070.072523.122523.1-230014681205046
ATL21312911101001002.557.360.90.2900.632523.122523.1-1202366107255046
ATL3261225111092818.727.330.541.34.4592523.122523.111218183699385046
ATL423922811100871.3610.411.53.350.753.372523.122523.1-20302291227325046
10801087970999263351835381
* - Actual Compared to Flight Plan (Average Minutes
Difference)
** - Actual Compared to Unimpeded (Average Minutes
Difference)
ATL011324010100435.11.50.51.253
ATL0200240000244.600037.5
ATL03033400100753.334.60.250028.75
ATL040012000100155.60000
ATL1100340066757.334.9300.10.514.25
ATL1200200000365.60000
ATL130162001001008.165.60015
ATL1400220050100415.60000
ATL2100120010050105.600.5038
ATL22000100000000018
ATL2300100000195.60000
ATL24001100100005.601017
ATL3100000000000000
ATL320013001003305.600.665.3327
ATL330002000500001014.5
ATL340102000500000013
ATL41021500080501.600.208.6
ATL42012100010033.51.60100
ATL43001200100100300000
ATL4421140010050900.50025.25
ATL5109111001006301.60.720.523.4510.36
ATL520435006680151.610.1644.4
ATL530214001007501.600.250.2512.75
ATL540101000100000050
ATL61404110100004.3501122
ATL621521640093753.562.600.8505.5
ATL63101151006010010.62.570225
ATL645107801718717.141.421.870.9702
ATL221362232210184957.6213.11.142.812
ATL22119172100761007.649.9124.131.191.33
ATL332342400759110.755.472.291.761.453.41
ATL41182170010010018.13.641.610.821.41
ATL231334300256631.753.1900.56017
ATL21241350092606.533.650.40.441423.4
ATL32752460179669.296.051.160.131.6616.16
ATL4104104011001001.55.810.25000
Total1230122611531180273885887.157.943.961.591.15.24
air-delays-qtr
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Departures
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Departures
SCHEDULED DEPARTURES AND CURRENT DEPARTURE RATE BOUNDARIES,
OPTIMUM RATE CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Taxi Out
Gate Delay
Average Delay (Min.) per Departure
TAXI-OUT AND GATE DELAY PER DEPARTURE, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Excess departures
Number of Flights
CUMULATIVE DEPARTURES OVER OPTIMUM RATE, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Gate Delay
Taxi-Out Delay
Minutes of Delay
DEPARTURE GATE AND TAXI-OUT DELAYS, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Arrivals
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Arrivals
SCHEDULED ARRIVALS AND CURRENT ARRIVAL RATE BOUNDARIES, OPTIMUM
RATE CONDITIONS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Airborne Delay
Arrival Delay
Minutes of Delay
AIRBORNE AND ARRIVAL DELAYS, VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Schedule
Facility Est.
Model Est.
Number of Operations
TOTAL SCHEDULED OPERATIONS AND CURRENT OPTIMUM RATE
BOUNDARIES
-
Enplanement Capacity is More Important than Operational
CapacitySmall aircraft make inefficient use of runway
capacityseats/aircraftCumulative Seat Share vs. Cumulative Flight
Share and Aircraft Size
ATL total operations (OAG Summer 2000)
Cumulative flight share
Cumulative seat share
-
Excess Market Concentration May Lead to Inefficient Use of Scare
ResourcesHHI is a Metric used to Measure Market
ConcentrationHirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) is standard measure
of market concentrationDepartment of Justice uses to measure the
competition within a market placeHHI=(100*si)2 with si is market
share of airline iRanging between 100 (perfect competitiveness) and
10000 (perfect monopoly)In a market place with an index over 1800,
the market begins to demonstrate a lack of competition
-
History of US Demand Management- Limited #IFR slots during
specific time periods- Negotiation-based
allocation1968High-Density-RuleLGA Airport Slot Control
-
Demand Management ApproachesAdministrativenegotiation-based IATA
biannual conferencesEconomicweight-based landing fee: no incentive
for large aircraft inefficient Enplanement capacitytime-based
congestion pricing: not reveal the true value of scarce
resourcesDoT supervised Market-based Auctions of Arrival
Metering-Fix Time SlotsHybrid
-
Auction Model Design Issues
Feasibilitypackage slot allocation for arrival and/or departure
slotspolitically acceptable pricesOptimalityefficiency: throughput
(enplanement opportunity) and delayregulatory standards: safety,
flight prioritiesequity: stability in scheduleairlines need to
leverage investmentsairlines competitiveness : new-entrants vs.
incumbentsFlexibilityprimary market at strategic level secondary
market at tactical level
-
Design Approach
Objective:Obtain Better Utilization of Nations Airport Network
Infrastructure Network Load BalancingProvide an Optimum Fleet Mix
at Safe Arrival CapacityEnsure Fair Market Access
OpportunityIncrease Schedule Predictability - reduced queuing
delaysAssumptionsAirlines will make optimum use of slots they
licenseAuction rules: Bidders are ranked using a linear combination
of: monetary offer (combination of A/C equipage credit and
cash)flight OD pair (e.g. international agreements, etc.)throughput
(aircraft size) ?airlines prior investment ?on-time performance
?
-
Strategic Auction Analytical ApproachNASAuction ModelAnalysis
& FeedbackBidsSlotsAirlinesAuctioneersNetwork ModelAuctions
only at Capacitated AirportsAuction Licenses good for 5 to 10
years
1
2
3
4
5
-
Auction Model ProcessMore bids than capacityCall for bidsEnd
auction processSubmit information and bidsYesNoAuctioneers
actionAirlines actionSimultaneous bidding of 15-min
intervalsDetermine factor weights, initial bids and incrementsSort
the bids in decreasing ranksSequence flights for each
intervalsLocal optimum fleet mix order: smalllarge 757heavy
-
Auctioneer ModelARR DEP Weight vector W = (w1 w2)T
Rank of a bid vector : WPj
C = (WTP1 WTPj WTPn)T
-
Atlantas VMC Auction ModelCapacity constraints for 15-min
bins:
(ARRX)i 25
(DEPX)i 25max z = CTX s.t.AX bairlines combinatorial
constraintsA = ARRDEP, b = 2525Let:
-
Airline Bidding ModelDetermine markets, legs, frequencies and
departure timesFleet assignment : (aircraft type,leg)line-of-flying
(LOF): sequence of legs to be flown by an aircraft in the course of
its day Bidding is all about scheduling
-
Simple Flight Schedule ExampleDetermine markets, legs,
frequencies and departure timesFleet assignment : (aircraft
type,leg)line-of-flying (LOF): sequence of legs to be flown by an
aircraft in the course of its day timeARR DEP 111111simple package
biddingBidding is all about scheduling1,52,63,74,81,32,4BCDAEFDaily
arrivals and departures at A of one LOF:
Sheet1
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
i
i+11
i+21
i+31
96
P1PjPj+1Pn
1
1
i1
i+11
96
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
11
i11
i+11
96
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
i
i+11
i+21
i+31
961
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Schedule Banking ConstraintsDetermine markets, legs, frequencies
and departure timesFleet assignment : (aircraft
type,leg)line-of-flying (LOF): sequence of legs to be flown by an
aircraft in the course of its day timeARR DEP 111111complex package
biddingBidding is all about scheduling1,52,63,74,81,32,4BCDAEFDaily
arrivals and departures at A of one LOF:
Sheet1
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
i
i+11
i+21
i+31
96
P1PjPj+1Pn
1
1
i1
i+11
96
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
11
i11
i+11
96
PackageP1PjPj+1Pn
Time window
i
i+11
i+21
i+31
961
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Assume the Airlines have a Near Optimal Schedule and Try to
Maintain in Auction
Airlines elasticity for changing schedule
original scheduled 15-min interval15min15minbids withdrawnbids
withdrawn Airlines bid reasonably and homogeneously by setting an
upper bid threshold proportional to #seats (revenue)
No fleet mix change
-
Airline Agent Tries to Maximize ProfitObjective function:
Maximize revenue and ultimately maximize profitMaximise Airlines
package bidding constraintsTo bid or not to bidUpper bound for
bidsLower bound for bidsMbig positive valueysbinary value
BoT airport threshold vector airline threshold fractionBs old
bid for slot s in previous roundif airline bids for slot
sotherwise{Bs} set of monetary bids{Ps} airline expected profit by
using a slotVariables:
-
Network Model used to Evaluate Auction Effectivenessdeparture
separationarrival separationRunway capacity determined by Wake
Vortex Separation Standards (nmiles/seconds) (M. Hanson) and a
scale factor to account for runway dependency
Sheet1
Trailing aircraftSmallLargeB757Heavy
Leading aircraft
Small2.5/802.5/682.5/662.5/64
Large4/1642.5/732.5/662.5/64
B7575/2014/1154/1024/101
Heavy6/2395/1485/1364/104
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Simulation scenariosAssumptions:Aircraft can arrive within
allocated slots with Required Time-of-Arrival errors of 20 seconds
(using Aircraft RTA Capabilities)Auction items: Metering Fix
Arrival SlotsNo combinatorial package biddingBid values and minimum
increments are relative to the value of initial bidInput: Summer
2000 OAG schedule of arrivals to ATL (1160 flights)Scenario 1
(Baseline):OAG scheduleScenario 2 (Simple auction):Monetary Offer
is the only determining factorAuction-produced schedule
-
Traffic levels and estimated queuing delays during VMC
-
Results : Flight Deviationsmin15-min max allowed 30-min max
allowed45-min max allowed Bell-shaped curves are consistent to the
model assumption about airline bidding behavior Curves are skewed
to the right due to optimum sequencing that shifts aircraft toward
the end of 15-min intervals~70%
-
Results : Auction metrics
-
Observations on Research to Date
Simple Auctions could Exclude small airlines and/or small
markets from Hub AirportsSimple Bidding Rules can Prevent this
ProblemNumber of flights to be rerouted is comparable to the number
of cancelled flightsCombinatorial Clock Auctions Offer a Promising
Market-Based approach to Demand ManagementAuction Proceeds could be
used as Incentives to the Airports for Infrastructure Investments
and to the Airlines for Avionics Investments
-
Airlines Could bid with Avionics Investment Promissory
NotesIncreased Hub airport capacity is Dependent on Aircraft being
able to maintain Accurate Time-Based Separation (ROT and WV safety
constraints)Data Links, ADS-B, FMS-RTA and New Operational
Procedures will be requiredAirlines could Bid with Script that
constituted a contract to equip their Aircraft with-in X years
(i.e. bid price)Cash Bids could be used to replace PFCs and go
directly to the Capacitated Airports Infrastructure Investment
Accounts
-
Future work
More airline and airport inputsExperimental auction
Participation
Include Efficiency Rules
Include combinatorial bidding
Include pricing
Conduct experimental auctions
-
Backup
-
Observed Runway IncursionsOne formal simultaneous runway
occupancySeveral near simultaneous runway occupanciesOut of 364
valid data points-14 sec
When
Where
Leader\Exit_time
Trailer\Thr_time
5,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Large\8:22:06
Large\8:22:06
5,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Large\8:22:50
Large\8:22:50
5,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Small\9:05:32
Large\9:05:30
5,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Large\1:16:04
Large\1:16:04
6,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Large\2:43:32
Heavy\2:43:32
6,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
B757\8:35:06
Large\8:35:06
When
Where
Leader\Exit_time
Trailer\Thr_time
5,Mar,2002
ATL 26L
Large\8:27:31
B757\8:27:17
-
ATL and LGA Aircraft Inter-arrival Times
-
LGA Arrival Histograms Normalized by Arrival RateDisplaying
Positive or Negative Deviation from WVSS AdherencePerfect WVSS
Adherence = 0
-
ATL Arrival Histograms RW 27 Normalized by Arrival
RateDisplaying Positive or Negative Deviation from WVSS
AdherencePerfect WVSS Adherence Value = 0
-
ATL Arrival Histograms RW 26 Normalized by Arrival
RateDisplaying Positive or Negative Deviation from WVSS
AdherencePerfect WVSS Adherence Value = 0
-
Aircraft Wake Vortex Separation Violations : LGA &
BWIPerfect WVSS Adherence Value = 0
-
FAA Barriers to ChangeFAA has an Operational and Regulatory
CultureInclination to follow training that has seemed to be Safe in
the PastFAR has NOT Changed to Provide Operational Benefits from
Introduction of New TechnologyAssumption that Aircraft Equipage
would be Benefits Driven did not account for Lack of an ECONOMIC
and/or SAFETY Bootstrapping Requirement
-
FAA Investment Analysis Primarily focus on Capacity and DelayOMB
requirement to have a B/C ratio > 1 leads to a modernization
emphasis on Decreasing DelayIn an Asynchronous Transportation
Network operating near its capacity margin, Delay is
InevitableDelay Costs Airlines Money and is an Annoyance to
Passengers BUTis Usually Politically and Socially Acceptable
-
Hypothesis: Most Major Changes to the NAS have been due to
Safety Concerns1960s Mandated Introduction of Radar Separation1970s
Decrease in Oceanic Separation Standards Required a Landmark Safety
Analysis1970s Required A/C Transponder Equipage1970s Required A/C
Ground Proximity Equipage1990s Required A/C TCAS Equipage1990s
Required A/C Enhanced Ground Prox. Equipage1990s TDWR & ITWS
Introduction1990s Mandated Development of GPS/WAAS
This is an example of Demand exceeding capacity at La Guardia
Airport during two different days .The red line is the capacity
level at the airport and as you can see, several times this number
was exceeded. This is just one airport but we can see the same type
of behavior at several airports in the United States.Asynchronous
scheduling due to uncontrolled flight scheduling by market-driven
airlines that have to accommodate passenger preferences, and hub
system complications.Queuing delay induces operational cost to
airlines, making the system non cost-effective that the end users
will pay for that finallySafety violation is big concern of
everyone, among that FAA is hold responsibleUnderutilization of
scarce resource : regional community and airport authority are not
happy in not making the most of their assets
No body is happy
This is an example of Demand exceeding capacity at La Guardia
Airport during two different days .The red line is the capacity
level at the airport and as you can see, several times this number
was exceeded. This is just one airport but we can see the same type
of behavior at several airports in the United States.Asynchronous
scheduling due to uncontrolled flight scheduling by market-driven
airlines that have to accommodate passenger preferences, and hub
system complications.Queuing delay induces operational cost to
airlines, making the system non cost-effective that the end users
will pay for that finallySafety violation is big concern of
everyone, among that FAA is hold responsibleUnderutilization of
scarce resource : regional community and airport authority are not
happy in not making the most of their assets
No body is happy
This is an example of Demand exceeding capacity at La Guardia
Airport during two different days .The red line is the capacity
level at the airport and as you can see, several times this number
was exceeded. This is just one airport but we can see the same type
of behavior at several airports in the United States.Asynchronous
scheduling due to uncontrolled flight scheduling by market-driven
airlines that have to accommodate passenger preferences, and hub
system complications.Queuing delay induces operational cost to
airlines, making the system non cost-effective that the end users
will pay for that finallySafety violation is big concern of
everyone, among that FAA is hold responsibleUnderutilization of
scarce resource : regional community and airport authority are not
happy in not making the most of their assets
No body is happy
Large aircraft having more than 210 seats (747, 777, L10) make
up only a very small fraction in ATLs fleet mix, in terms of seat
share (4%) as well as flight share (1.7%). 75.1% of the flights
have from 97 up to 210 seats (767, 757, M80, 72S, D9S), and
represent 87.7% of the total seats. Finally, 21.7% of the flights
have less than 70 seats (AT7, CRJ, EM2) and only provide the
remaining 8.3 % of the total seats, and the cargo flights occupy
1.5% of the slots.
The OAG of summer 2000 is later used to simulate auction
approach.Airlines have guarantee in developing their network and
long-term business plansGrandfather rights used in Europe mandate
that only if air carriers can demonstrate that they have operated
their slots at least 80% of the time for the current allocation
period, they can be entitled to the same series of slot for the
next allocation period.
Sequence of legs to be flown by an aircraft in the course of its
daySequence of legs to be flown by an aircraft in the course of its
daySequence of legs to be flown by an aircraft in the course of its
daySince its hard to know connecting flights dependency and
therefore all the combinations of slots an airline can bid, we
assume a hypothetical value of airline elasticity which represents
the flexibility of shifting flights backward and forward of an
airline. Airlines are therefore assumed to maintain their current
schedules.Please read the section Result and Interpretation in the
paper.Here we included the cases when the trailer touched down at
the same time when the leader exit a runway. We see that the large
aircraft have a big proportion in the aircraft involved in
simultaneous runway occupancy.
