WORKSHOP ON THE FUTURE OF ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVATIONS

Air quality predictions and planetary boundary layer

Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS/STIwith contributions from the air quality implementation team, especially Jeff McQueen (NOAA/NCEP/EMC) and

Amanda Sleinkofer, Millersville University

Warrenton, VA October 25, 2017

Model: Linked numerical prediction systemOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer• NOAA NCEP mesoscale numerical weather prediction• NOAA/EPA community model for air quality: CMAQ • NOAA HYSPLIT model for smoke and dust predictionObservational Input: • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations;

climatology of regions with dust emission potential • EPA emissions inventory

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityEnd-to-End Operational Capability

Gridded forecast guidance products• On NWS servers: airquality.weather.gov

and ftp-servers (12km resolution, hourly for 48 hours)

• On EPA servers• Updated 2x daily

Verification basis, near-real time:• Ground-level AIRNow observations

of surface ozone and PM2.5• Satellite observations of smoke and dust

Customer outreach/feedback• State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA• Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

AIRNow

2

ozone

smoke

dust

PM2.5Maria

Lidia

Statistical performance of ozone predictions in August 2017

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Eastern U.S. Western U.S.

Mean

Fraction correct for daily maximum of 8h ozone

Improvement of prediction models focuses on daily maximum ozone.

Diurnal range and night time depletion are underestimated.

Statistical performance of PM2.5predictions for May 2017

Eastern U.S. Western U.S.

Mean PM2.5 by forecast hour

µg/m

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µg/m

3

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ObservationsPrevious operational modelBias correction for previous model Current operational model Bias correction for current model

Overestimation of PM2.5 at night. Need to consider: height and diurnal evolution of PBL, temporal allocation and strength of precursor emissions, removal processes.

Verification of PBL heights

• Temporally and spatially limited5

ACARS

radiosondes

Coastal areas• Historically, overestimated

ozone predictions in coastal areas due to underestimated PBL height and overestimated ozone over water.

• Representation of sea breeze, land breeze.

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• Ozone is overestimated in the model under humid conditions (especially near the Gulf Coast, not shown).

PBL height comparisons

Higher resolution model (3 km NAM) is better at capturing diurnal evolution of PBL height than the lower resolution model (12 km NAM).

Credit: Amanda Sleinkofer, Millersville U. 7

3 km NAM model

12 km NAM

Aircraft obs.Ceilometer obs.

SummaryObservational needs exist for evaluation of model predictions and for improved understanding of:• PBL height and the extent of vertical mixing controlling pollutant

concentrations• Diurnal evolution of PBL exporting pollutants into the free troposphere• PBL in coastal environment, land breeze, sea breeze• Urban PBL at night time• Cold air pools can trap pollution near the surface• Flow over complex terrain• PBL meteorology and its impacts on the amount of pollutant emissions

(e.g. wildfires, dust), chemical processing and dispersion of pollutants as well as their wet and dry deposition

• Atmospheric moisture profiles in PBL• Atmospheric composition profiles in PBL

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Operational AQ forecast guidance atairquality.weather.gov

New web site: http://www.weather.gov/sti/stimodeling_airquality

Ozone productsNationwide since 2010

Smoke ProductsNationwide since 2010Dust ProductsImplemented 2012

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Acknowledgments:AQF implementation team members

•Special thanks to previous NOAA and EPA team members who contributed to the system development

•NOAA/NWS/OSTI Ivanka Stajner NAQFC Manager

•NWS/AFSO Jannie Ferrell Outreach, Feedback•NWS/OD Cynthia Jones Data Communications•NWS/OSTI/MDL Marc Saccucci, NDGD Product Development

Dave Ruth•NWS/OSTI Sikchya Upadhayay Program Support•NESDIS/NCDC Alan Hall Product Archiving•NWS/NCEP

Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, AQF model interface development, testing, & integrationJun Wang, *Sarah Lu Global dust aerosol and feedback testing *Brad Ferrier, *Eric Rogers, NAM coordination*Hui-Ya ChuangHo-Chun Huang Smoke and dust product testing and integrationRebecca Cosgrove, Steven Earle NCO transition and systems testingAndrew Orrison HPC coordination and AQF webdrawer

•NOAA/OAR/ARLPius Lee, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng Chai CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQFLi Pan, Hyun-Cheol Kim, Youhua TangAriel Stein HYSPLIT adaptations

•NESDIS/STAR Shobha Kondragunta Smoke and dust verification product development•NESDIS/OSDPD Liqun Ma, Mark Ruminski Production of smoke and dust verification products, • HMS product integration with smoke forecast tool•EPA/OAQPS partners:•Chet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Brad Johns, John White AIRNow development, coordination with NAQFC

* Guest Contributors 10