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Air Quality IssuesAir Quality IssuesNew State Implementation PlanNew State Implementation Plan

Seyed SadredinSeyed SadredinExecutive Director/APCOExecutive Director/APCO

San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District

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Valley’s challenges are unmatched by any other region in the nation.

Valley’s geography and meteorology are ideal for forming and trapping smog.

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Pollution DensityPollution Density

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Percent Decrease, NOxSource: Based on ARB's 2006 Almanac

-45.0%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

1990 1995 2000 2005

year

percent decrease South Coast

San Joaquin

Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region

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Much progress has been made, but the remaining Much progress has been made, but the remaining challenges are dauntingchallenges are daunting

Federal Standards Pass Fail Comments

Ozone: Smog in Summer

One-hour N/A Smog cut by half before standard was revoked

Eight-hour EPA compliance by 2012. Plan due in 2007.

PM-10: Dust, soot in fall

24-hour Annual

PM-2.5: smallest particulates in winter

24-hour New standard released 9/21/06.

Annual EPA Compliance by 2015. Plan due in 2008.

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How much more reductions is How much more reductions is needed for 8-hr ozone attainment?needed for 8-hr ozone attainment?

• An additional 60% reductions in emissions needed to meet the new smog standard

• 480 tons per day of reductions are needed

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

2005EmissionsInventory

2015 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o

Tons Per Day

NOx

ROG

60% Reduction in Emissions:60% Reduction in Emissions:How Difficult?How Difficult?

“Carrying Capacity”

Mobile Sources

Stationary Sources

Light Duty Vehicles

Diesel Trucks

AgricultureEmissions Inventory

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2007 Ozone Plan2007 Ozone Plan4-Faceted Control Strategy4-Faceted Control Strategy

• Regulatory component (District rules)

• Incentive-based strategies

• Alternative compliance

• Local, state, and federal sources/partnerships

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Current District Control MeasuresCurrent District Control Measures

• 41 Stationary & area source measuresCurrent rulemaking projects (10) – affecting 20 current rules, Proposed CMs (17), Further Study CMs (14)

• 7 Mobile & Indirect Measures:Trip Reduction, Accelerated Fleet Rule, ISR Enhancement, Green Contracting, Expanded Spare the Air, Heat Island Mitigation, Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation

• Incentive Programs- for faster fleet turnover of diesel trucks, off-road equipment, farm equipment, light/medium duty vehicles)

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Reductions from Control Reductions from Control MeasuresMeasures

• New reductions from recent District rules (not yet in inventory) = 72 tons/day by 2012

• Reductions from new District rules & programs = 46 tons/day by 2012

• Reductions from state & federal mobile source emissions = 80 tons/day by 2014

• Reductions from known District incentive funding = 12 tons/day by 2012

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2012 Attainment “Gap”2012 Attainment “Gap”

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Year

VOC+NOx emissions, tpd

Baseline

w/Recent District Rules

w/Proposed District &ARB Controls

Carrying Capacity -Arvin

Carrying Capacities derived from ARB photochemical modeling

300 t/d

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Regulations vs. IncentivesRegulations vs. Incentives

2012 Attainment

2023 Attainment

$7.5 Billion Incentives

$2.9 Billion Incentives

$2.1 Billion Incentives

Recent Local RulesNew Local RegulationsFleet TurnoverNew State MeasuresIncentives

2020 Attainment

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Incentives StrategyIncentives Strategy

• “Air Quality Empowerment Zones”

• Tax incentives for plan/fleet modernization

• Fair share of air quality funds from the state transportation bond

• $200 million/year cash incentives for 10-12 year (50/50 state and federal match)

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When Will the Valley Attain?When Will the Valley Attain?• Attainment is possible with this Plan

• Attainment will “phase in” over time

– Some areas are currently in attainment

– Others will attain as emissions are reduced

• Attainment in Parlier/Edison…

– Requires 35%-40% reduction from 2012 baseline

– Means attainment for all SJV metro areas

– Will be achieved by 2019 with proposed controls

• Over 90% of the Valley population will be in attainment by 2019

• Arvin’s low carrying capacity defines the strategy

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EdisonOildale/

Bakersfield

MaricopaArvin

Shafter

Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.

Lower Kaweah

Visalia

ParlierFresno

Clovis

Turlock

Merced

Tracy

Stockton

Modesto

Madera

Hanford

20053-yr Avg of 4th highest measurement

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EdisonOildale/

Bakersfield

MaricopaArvin

Shafter

Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.

Lower Kaweah

Visalia

ParlierFresno

Clovis

Turlock

Merced

Tracy

Stockton

Modesto

Madera

Hanford

2012w/Proposed Controls

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EdisonOildale/

Bakersfield

MaricopaArvin

Shafter

Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.

Lower Kaweah

Visalia

ParlierFresno

Clovis

Turlock

Merced

Tracy

Stockton

Modesto

Madera

Hanford

2014w/Proposed Controls

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EdisonOildale/

Bakersfield

MaricopaArvin

Shafter

Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.

Lower Kaweah

Visalia

ParlierFresno

Clovis

Turlock

Merced

Tracy

Stockton

Modesto

Madera

Hanford

2019w/Proposed Controls