62
AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY E. Angelino 1 , M.P. Costa 2 , A. D’Allura 2 , S. Finardi 2 , G. Fossati 1 , G. Lanzani 1 , E. Peroni 1 , P. Radice 2 , C. Silibello 2 .::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 1. ARPA - Regional Environmental Protection Agency – Lombardia www.arpalombardia.it 2. ARIANET Srl – www.aria-net.it

AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES ... · AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY E. Angelino1 ... via Santuario

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AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONSREDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONSREDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

E. Angelino1, M.P. Costa2, A. D’Allura2, S. Finardi2, G. Fossati1, G. Lanzani1, E. Peroni1, P. Radice2, C. Silibello2

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

1. ARPA - Regional Environmental Protection Agency – Lombardia

www.arpalombardia.it

2. ARIANET Srl – www.aria-net.it

2

Why 1: in the Po valley, 30-40% of PM is secondary inorganic; Why 2: need for our local Administration to investigate wheatherstricter command and control policies should be applied to ammonia or nitrogen oxides emissions (or both); We are interested into determining if Lombardy plain can beconsidered either ammonia or NOX limited;

These slides: Base case: Domain, Emissions, Meteorology, Bc, Results [3-22] Scenarios: Hypothesis, Results, Discussion [23-33]

A few words of introduction…

3

Simulation domain

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Nr. of grid points along x, y: 146, 96Horizontal resolution: 4 kmDomain area: 584x284 km2

Grid face heights [m]:

1 = 40.2 = 90.3 = 160.4 = 260.5 = 390.6 = 570.7 = 810.8 = 1140.9 = 1580.

….16 = 10040.

Emissions

EMEP 2009 – 50 x 50 km2 Local Inventories* 2011 – Municipal level

Naval emissions – District level National Inventory 2009*– District level

* INEMAR inventory (www.inemar.eu) except for Vallée d’Aoste

* Originally referred to 2005 and updated with GAINS trends

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY4

NOx emissions

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 5

Sectors weight (%) - NOX

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 6

NH3 emissions

7

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Sectors weight (%) – NH3

8

17/3/2011-19/4/2011NH3 max rate = 0.0702 mol/m2sNOX max rate = 0.2092 mol/m2s

9

Two months were simulated – one in spring and one in autumn –when liquid manure is spread and measurements were available

16/09/2011-16/10/2011NH3 max rate = 0.1010 mol/m2sNOX max rate = 0.1924 mol/m2s

NH3

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

NOX

Anthropogenic emissions*

* Non-anthropogenic: MEGAN+CORINE land cover+CH GEOSTAT;meteorological parameters by RAMS+SURFpro

10

Meteorological driver: RAMS+REVUSimulated periods:• 16/03-20/04/2011• 14/09-16/10/2011Howto:• Every 5 days of

simulations+ 1 spin-off day

Grid 1 Grid 2xy (km) 16 4Nx 121 170Ny 111 118Nz 32 32

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Meteorology

11

SP

RIN

GFA

LL

Obs. RAMS+REVU

10m windfield

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

12

T, Rad, RH, etc.

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

• Derived from QUALEARIA daily runs over Italy• Emissions: National Inventory 2005 @ district level updated to 2009

with GAINS trends + TNO 2005 European Inventory(http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-17.pdf)

• Eulerian model FARM + SAPRC99 + ISORROPIA

Larger domain: 48 km grid pace.Nested domain: 12 Km grid pace

13

Boundary conditions

Hourly BC conditions

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

17/3/2011-19/4/2011NH3: Min=0.1 – Max=29.8 g/m3

14/09/2011-16/10/2011NH3: Min=0.3 – Max=41.2 g/m3

14

Results: NH3 and NO2 averages

NO2: Min=0.7 – Max=55.7 g/m3 NO2: Min=0.6 – Max=53.6 g/m3

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Name District ClassificationMoggio LC Rural Background (FR)Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU)Corte de Cortesi CR Rural Background (FR)Bertonico LO Rural Industrial (IR)Cremona - Via Fatebenefratelli CR Urban Background (FU)Cremona - via Gerre Borghi CR Rural Background (FR)Saronno - via Santuario VA Urban Background (FU) Seriate BG Urban Background (FU) Lecco - Via Sora LC Urban Background (FU) Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU) Brescia - via Ziziola BS Suburban Background (FS)Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV Rural Background (FR) Ponti sul Mincio MN Suburban Background (FS) Spinadesco CR Rural Background (FR)

15

NH

3

Results: comparison with measured values

NO

2

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Station: 626 (CR) - Type: FR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

g

m-3

]

Station: 1266 (LO) - Type: IR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

g

m-3

]

NH3(spring)

measured computed

Station: 681 (LC) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

g

m-3

]

Station: 677 (CR) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

g

m-3

]

Station: 1303 (CR) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

16.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Station: 1303 (CR) - Type: FR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 626 (CR) - Type: FR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

4

g

m-3

]

Station: 1266 (LO) - Type: IR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

4

g

m-3

]

Station: 681 (LC) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4

g

m-3

] NH3 (fall)

measured computed

Station: 677 (CR) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4

g

m-3

]

17.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

NO2 (spring)

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]18.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

19.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

NO2 (fall)

20

17/3/2011-19/4/2011PM25: Min=3.1 – Max=22.6 g/m3

17/3/2011-19/4/2011PM25: Min=2.7 – Max=24.3 g/m3

Results: PM25 averages

Name District ClassificationSaronno - via Santuario VA Urban Background (FU)Seriate BG Urban Background (FU) Lecco - Via Sora LC Urban Background (FU) Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU) Darfo (aria) BS Suburban Background (FS) Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV Rural Background (FR)Ponti sul Mincio MN Suburban Background (FS)Spinadesco CR Rural Background (FR)

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8018/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]21

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 655 (BS) - Type: FS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18/3

20/3

22/3

24/3

26/3

28/3

30/3

1/4

3/4

5/4

7/4

9/4

11/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

date

g

m-3

].::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

PM25 (spring)

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 655 (BS) - Type: FS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8015/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15/9

17/9

19/9

21/9

23/9

25/9

27/9

29/9

1/10

3/10

5/10

7/10

9/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

date

g

m-3

]22

PM25 (fall)

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Not devised to represent actual reductions on emissions connected to realadoptable interventions.

N. Emissions reductions1. -25% NH3 on all the simulation domain (the Po valley); 2. -25% NH3 on Lombardy alone; 3. -50% NH3 on Lombardy alone; 4. -12.5% NOx on Lombardy alone; 5. -25% NOx on Lombardy alone; 6. -50% NOx on Lombardy alone; 7. -25% NH3 and NOx on Lombardy alone; 8. -25% NH3 e NOx on all the simulation domain; 9. -25% NH3 e -50% NOx on Lombardy alone; 10. -50% NH3 e -25% NOx on Lombardy alone.

Simulated periods (measured data windows – year 2011):• 17/03 – 19/04• 14/09 – 19/10

23

Emissions scenarios –preliminary results

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Spring:% variation with

respect to the base case; averages on space and time on

AQ stationsconsidered

NH3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-26.69%-22.25%

-43.98%

0.71% 1.49% 3.30%

-20.91%-24.52%

-19.27%

-42.89%-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

NOx (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )-0.02% -0.01% -0.02%

-10.54%

-20.88%

-40.76%

-20.89%

-25.53%

-40.76%

-20.90%

-45.0%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

PM25 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-3.62%

-2.49%

-6.03%

-1.35%

-2.88%

-6.61%

-5.11%

-9.08%-8.53% -8.27%

-10.0%-9.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%

-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

NO2 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )-0.02% -0.01% -0.02%

-9.81%

-19.65%

-39.21%

-19.66%

-24.24%

-39.21%

-19.67%

-45.0%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

O3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2.23%

4.49%

8.92%

4.49%5.13%

8.92%

4.49%

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

OH (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-0.01% -0.01% -0.03%

4.36%

8.80%

16.53%

8.79%

10.65%

16.53%

8.77%

-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

ScenarioVa

riatio

n

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 24

NO3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-9.12%

-6.31%

-15.26%

-3.43%

-7.26%

-16.44%

-12.92%

-22.48%-21.33%-20.89%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

SO4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

0.01% 0.00% 0.00%

0.14%

0.27%

0.41%

0.27%

0.22%

0.41%

0.26%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

NH4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-5.34%

-3.70%

-8.97%

-2.00%

-4.24%

-9.68%

-7.56%

-13.29%-12.55%-12.26%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

ORG (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

0.01% 0.00% 0.01%

0.20%

0.37%

0.54%

0.37%0.41%

0.54%

0.37%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

25

Spring:% variation with respect to the base case; averages

on space and time on AQ stations considered

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

NH3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-25.09%-20.97%

-41.58%

0.75% 1.53% 3.17%

-19.60%-23.04%

-18.13%

-40.45%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

NOx (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )-0.03% -0.02% -0.05%

-10.17%

-20.09%

-39.08%

-20.10%-23.86%

-39.09%

-20.12%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

PM25 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-4.37%-3.21%

-7.72%

-2.43%

-5.03%

-10.68%

-7.82%

-12.57%-13.01%

-11.70%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Scenario

Varia

tion

NO2 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )-0.03% -0.02% -0.05%

-9.83%

-19.53%

-38.37%

-19.54%-23.27%

-38.38%

-19.57%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

O3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2.06%

4.06%

7.63%

4.06% 4.05%

7.63%

4.06%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

OH (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-0.01% -0.01% -0.02%

2.02%

3.79%

5.73%

3.79% 4.07%

5.72%

3.78%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

ScenarioVa

riatio

n

26.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Fall:% variation with

respect to the base case; averages on space and time on

AQ stationsconsidered

NO3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-11.28%-8.26%

-19.72%

-6.16%

-12.65%

-26.34%

-19.77%

-31.15% -32.23%-29.55%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

SO4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

0.02% 0.02%0.04% 0.04% 0.05%

-0.15%

0.06%

-0.18%

-0.15%

0.07%

-0.20%

-0.15%

-0.10%

-0.05%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

NH4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-6.27%-4.62%

-11.09%

-3.45%

-7.12%

-14.98%

-11.12%

-17.71% -18.31%-16.66%

-20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

ORG (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

-0.03%

-0.14%

-0.68%

-0.14%

-0.36%

-0.68%

-0.14%

-0.8%

-0.7%

-0.6%

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

27

Fall:% variation with respect to the base case; averages

on space and time on AQ stations considered

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

28

PM25 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-4.37%-3.21%

-7.72%

-2.43%

-5.03%

-10.68%

-7.82%

-12.57% -13.01%

-11.70%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

PM25 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-3.62%-2.49%

-6.03%

-1.35%

-2.88%

-6.61%

-5.11%

-9.08%-8.53% -8.27%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Scenario

Varia

tion

Preliminary results: PM25 averages

Reductions over the entire Po Valley are more effective than theircounterparts over Lombardy alone

.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Emissionsreduction

Pollutant PM2.5

Spring Autumn

-25%NH3 -2.49 % -3.24 %NOX -2.88 % -5.03 %

-50%NH3 -6.03 % -7.72 %NOX -6.61 % -10.68 %

-25% NH3, -25% NOX -5.11 % -7.82 %-25% NH3,-50% NOX -8.53 % -12.57 %

-50% NH3, -25% NOX -8.27 % -11.70 %

Reducing NH3appears aseffective asreducing NOX

Reducing bothprecursors at the same time is aseffective as the maximumreduction gainedby reducing one at timesLess effective impact during spring. NOX

emissions reduction free hydroxyl that reactswhith SO2 and condensable VOC

29.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY

Preliminary results: PM25 average reductions

OH (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

-0.01% -0.01% -0.03%

4.36%

8.80%

16.53%

8.79%

10.65%

16.53%

8.77%

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

OH (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

-0.01% -0.01% -0.02%

2.02%

3.79%

5.73%

3.79% 4.07%5.72%

3.78%

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

SO4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

0.01% 0.00% 0.00%

0.14%

0.27%

0.41%

0.27%0.22%

0.41%

0.26%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

SO4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

0.02% 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 0.05%

-0.15%

0.06%

-0 18%-0.15%

0.07%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

ORG (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )

0.01% 0.00% 0.01%

0.20%

0.37%

0.54%

0.37% 0.41%0.54%

0.37%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

ORG (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )

0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

-0.03%-0.14%

-0.68%

-0.14%

-0.36%

-0.68%

-0.14%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Varia

tion

30

Scenarios 4, 5 and 6 show thatdecreasing emissions of NOX lead tonear linear results on PM25concentrations if the amount of thereduction is between 12.5% and25%

For greater reductions, between20% and 50%, PM25 concentrationsdecreases with a more thanproportional relation.

More or less the same holds true forammonia emissions reductions(scenarios 2 and 3)

31

Preliminary results: PM25 reductions and precursors emissions

The same non-linearity at higherNOX reductions converselyaffects ozone level

32

But ozone increases…

33

• Reductions on PM2.5: as far as this results imply, we are in the limitarea, where both precursors show similar impact on secondaryPM25;

• Linearity up to a certain amount of reductionof precursors emissions(around 20%); greater impact with higher %;

• reduction of NOX slightly more effective, but with a seasonalpattern (more effective in autumn then in spring);

• One should also account that ammonia concentrations are stronglyunderestimate in the proximity of cattle and pig breeding areas;

• Expected a fairly limited growth of Sulphates and Organic fractiondue to an increase of available hdroxyl, but unexpected that thisgrowth occurs only in spring;

• Clear (and expected) growth of ozone when NOX are reduced.

Need of further investigations (all year long, with more measureddata)

Preliminary conclusions

34

Thanks for your attention!

Slides eventuali

17/3/2011-19/4/2011 14/9/2011-16/10/2011

36

Results: O3 averages

Stazioni di misuraO3

ID Nome Provincia Classificazione554 Saronno - via Santuario VA FU609 Casirate d`Adda BG FR706 Lecco - Via Sora LC FU705 Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI FU653 Brescia - via Ziziola BS FS672 Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV FR695 Ponti sul Mincio MN FS1297 Spinadesco CR FR

O3 (19/3-19/4/2011)

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 609 (BG) - Type: FR

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

020406080

100

120140160180200

19/3

21/3

23/3

25/3

27/3

29/3

31/3

2/4

4/4

6/4

8/4

10/4

13/4

15/4

17/4

19/4

date

g

m-3

]

O3 (16/9-17/10/2011)

measured computed

Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 609 (BG) - Type: FR

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR

020406080

100120140160180200

16/9

18/9

20/9

22/9

24/9

26/9

28/9

30/9

2/10

4/10

6/10

8/10

11/10

13/10

15/10

17/10

date

g

m-3

]

Simulazione caso baseConcentrazioni espresse in [g m-3]

17/3/2011-19/4/2011 14/9/2011-16/10/2011

Scenari “solo Lombardia”

4. -12.5% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia; 5. -25% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia; 6. -50% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia.

Periodi di Simulazione:• - dal 17 marzo al 19 aprile 2011;• - dal 14 settembre al 16 ottobre 2011.

Analisi Scenari Emissivi

NO2Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

NO2

Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

PM2.5Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0

PM2.517

/3 –

19/4

/ 201

114

/9 –

16/1

0/ 2

011

O3Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

O3

Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

2. -25% riduzione NH3 sulla sola Lombardia; 3. -50% riduzione NH3 sulla sola Lombardia.

Periodi di Simulazione:• - dal 17 marzo al 19 aprile 2011;• - dal 14 settembre al 16 ottobre 2011.

Analisi Scenari Emissivi

NH3Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 2 –Scenario 0 Scenario 3 –Scenario 0NH3

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

PM2.5Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 2 –Scenario 0 Scenario 3 –Scenario 0PM2.5

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

NH3Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 1 –Scenario 0 Scenario 8 –Scenario 0NH3

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

Scenari “bacino”

NH3Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 1 –Scenario 0 Scenario 8 –Scenario 0NH3

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

NO2Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 1 –Scenario 0 Scenario 8 –Scenario 0NO2

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1

O3Variazioni assolute rispetto al Caso base

Scenario 1 –Scenario 0 Scenario 8 –Scenario 0O3

17/3

–19

/4/ 2

011

14/9

–16

/10/

201

1