Air Pollution - US Regulations and International Transport

Dan Jaffe

Professor UW - B and UW - S

http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/01/the-last-empire.html

Identify the one critical issue NOT raised in the required reading

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1. Levels of PM2.5

2. Levels of SO2

3. Levels of ozone

Answer Now!

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Global Air Pollution: Science and Implicationsby Dan Jaffe, UW-Bothell

My research team (R to L): Will Hafner, Duli Chand, Phil Swartzendruber, Mary Howisey, Dave Reidmiller, Jeremy

Smith and Dr J (not shown Emily Fischer)

Outline

1) The Clean Air Act and air quality standards

2) Cleaning up in the US

3) Identification of global transport of pollutants

4) Why global transport matters

5) The future: growth in developing countries

AirBasic necessity for life (without O2 we get brain damage in ~3 minutes);

Lungs are readily irritated by noxious gases (e.g. O3,

SO2, smoke, etc.);

Lungs are also a good conduit for absorption into bloodstream of toxics such as Pb, CO, benzene, etc.

Due to low mass of earth’s atmosphere and sometimes poor dispersion, air can be readily polluted.

History of major air pollution “incidents”

Belgium, 1930-- 63 deaths;Donora, PA,1948--20 deaths;London, 1952--4000 deaths;New York, 1966--166 deaths.

These incidents all occurred in heavily industrialized regions, under severe meteorological conditions (strong inversions with poor ventilation).

One other important event in the 1960s was when the Cuyahoga River (Cleveland) caught fire!

Major Environmental Laws of the late 60’s and early 70’s

• National Environmental Policy Act (1969)-Required environmental review (EIS) before major

governmental projects could be started;

• Creation of EPA (1970);• Clean Air Act (1970)-Established national air quality standards and the initial

regulatory framework of how those would be achieved;

• Clear Water ActEstablished national water quality standards.

The Clean Air Act (CAA)• One of the most complex laws ever written;

• Major revisions in 1977, 1985, 1990, 1995 to deal with toxic chemicals, stratospheric ozone, etc;

• Considered by many to be a model environmental legislation and has been used as the basis for Clean Airs in many other countries.

NAAQS: National Ambient Air Quality

Standards • Level of pollutant that should not be exceeded in all

areas of the country;• Goal is to protect the health of all citizens, including

sensitive populations;• Based solely on health effects, economic considerations

were not to be considered;• NAAQS was then the basis for a comprehensive set of

regulations on industry, vehicle manufacturers, states and cities and essentially established the industries of air pollution control technology and air quality monitoring.

• NAAQS should be re-evaluated by EPA every 5 years to ensure they are consistent with best scientific data.

Emission Reductions due to the Clean Air Act

Source:

US EPA

CAA: Cost-Benefit AnalysisIn the 1990 CAA amendments, congress required EPA to

conduct a cost-benefit analysis on the CAA“Final Report to Congress on Benefits and Costs of the Clean

Air Act, 1970-1990”

Annual Costs: $25 billion (mainly compliance costs)Annual Benefits: $1.1 trillion (range 0.3-2.5 trillion)

Mainly avoided deaths, avoided hospitalizations and avoided lost IQ points in children)

A “no brainer”...

Currently, about 100 million people in the US live in areas that don’t meet the O3 standard.

Note that in 2007, EPA has proposed a new lower (tougher) O3 standard. Final rules will be announced in 2008.

Non-attainment areas for 8-hour O3 standard

Currently, ~50 million people in the US live in areas that violate the PM2.5 standard. By one estimate, there are 64,000 premature deaths in the US due to PM, at levels above and below the standard.

PM2.5 Non-attainment areas

Orange: Areas that exceed only the annual std (15 ug/m3).Yellow: Ares that exceed only the 24 hour std (65 ug/m3).

Red: Areas that exceed both.

New PM2.5 Non-attainment areas (2007)

Orange: Areas that exceed only the annual std (15 ug/m3).Yellow: Ares that exceed only the 24 hour std (35 ug/m3).

Red: Areas that exceed both.

Most air pollution is from local sources, but as we move to lower standards, background air

becomes more important…

Figure: EPA Atmospheric Deposition Handbook, 2001.

Background air

How important is background air?

Background concentrations are partly natural and partly due to global anthropogenic sources.

New PM std

New O3 stdCurrent O3 std

Current PM std

The blue bars show the mean conc. of O3 and PM2.5 in the air arriving to Wash. State from the Pacific.

The “background” is part natural and partly due to pollution from other countries.

So what about the rest of the world?• Europe, Japan and many other industrialized countries

have adopted approaches that are rather similar to the CAA. Emissions of air pollutants are decreasing in most industrialized countries;

• China and many other countries are rapidly developing their economies, increasing their energy usage and emissions.

China’s energy use

Growth in vehicle numbers in China

Data from M. Hu, Peking University

Beijing Smog

According to the World Bank, 16 of 20 of the world’s most polluted cities are in China.

The Scientific Method

Publications

Find Funding

Mean wind vectors for April700 mb (~10,000 feet elevation)

PHOBEA* Study Area

Aircraftprofiles

CPO

*Photochemical Ozone Budget of the Eastern North Pacific Atmosphere.

The view from Cheeka Peak

Cheeka Peak 10 meter

Sampling Tower

Vertical Profiles using Beechcraft Duchess

• Twin (piston) engine aircraft• Unpressurized cabin• Maximum flight altitude 6km, 4 hours useable flying time• Maximum instrument payload ~240 kg• Maximum instrument volume ~1.5m3

• Maximum power ~1 kw• Available locally (Northway Aviation, 20min from lab) • $250/hour including pilot.

Its not just industrial sources…

Dust

Forest fires

Industry

Some example LRT events

• Transport of Asian mineral dust;

• Industrial pollution/O3.

TOMS Aerosol Index (AI) for mid-April 2001

April 12, 2001

April 8, 2001

April 14, 2001

Satellites give useful information on large transport events, however this data is qualitative, lacks altitude and chemical information and is often obscured by clouds. To put this in perspective, we have identified about 15 transport events, but only 3 have been identifiable with satellite data. The April 2001 dust event was a biggie…

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Aerosol Scatter 550nm (m -1)

Altitude (km)

Flight 8, 14 April 20012001 Spring Average +/-1sd

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Altitude (km)

Aircraft vertical profile over Washington coastline April 14th, 2001

Particulate data show that the dust mixed to the surface and moved across the US

Si PM 10

Jaffe et al., 2003

How did the April 2001 Asian dust episode influence air quality in several urban areas of the U.S.?

Old std

New std

Mt. Bachelor, Oregon, 2.7 km above sea level

Only high elevation/free tropospheric atmos. research site in western U.S.

Continuous observations of CO, O3, aerosols and Hg since 2004.

Frequent detection of Asian pollution plumes (Jaffe et al., 2005; Weiss-Penzias et al., 2006; 2007; Swartzendruber et al., 2006; Strode et al., 2007)

Photo by Randy Hopfer

Met tower and air sampling inlet

Mt. Bachelor back trajectories, April 25, 2004

175 backward air trajectories for the times around the highest concentrations (1000-1600 GMT) and for a grid

of locations surrounding the summit of MBO.

Transport of Asian pollution to North America: April 25, 2004

We have now detected many Asian pollution plumes at Mt. Bachelor (see Weiss-Penzias et al 2007).

Global cooperation• These pollutants are related to energy use and development. The

biggest issues are coal and increasing automobiles use in the developing world (energy reality).

• Currently the US and China are nearly equal in CO2 emissions, but China is growing more rapidly. On a per capita basis, US emits about 6 times more CO2 per person than does China (moral dimension).

• While many countries have signed on the Kyoto Protocol to limit CO2, the US and China have not.

• The US has begun to play a leadership role on some issues, notably Hg and energy technology. Much more is needed.

• The developed world must show stronger leadership on global pollution issues.

Summary1) We have identified numerous long-range transport coming from

the Eurasian continent;

2) These episodes indicate multiple source types including industrial emissions, biofuels/biomass burning and mineral dust;

3) Occasionally, we see events that result in large enhancements at the surface and can contribute to air quality problems in the U.S.;

4) There are policy implications of this work especially for ozone, particulate matter and mercury.

5) Global cooperation on environmental matters is clearly essential for long-term sustainability of the planet. We even have a model… the Montreal Protocols which have virtually eliminated chlorofluorocarbons and saved the ozone layer.

Mt. Bachelor Observatory

Working in a blizzard After the storm

Another day at the office?

More information can be found on my group’s website: http://faculty.washington.edu/djaffe

Observed ΔHg0/ ΔCO ratios in Asian plumes

Ratio in Asian plumes is ~5x higher than ratio seen in western US plumes and/or biomass burning plumes as seen at Mt.Bachelor. Hg0/CO ratio appears to be good marker for Asian plume.

BUT, this ratio is 2x larger then the expected Asian emissions ratio based on industrial Hg(0) inventories (Streets or Pacyna inventories).

These results suggest a significant underestimate in the Asian mercury emissions inventory (see Jaffe et al., 2005).

Location ΔHg(0)/ΔCO (molar) x 107

Okinawa 5.9 +/- 1.7 (n=6)

Mt.Bachelor 6.2 +/- 1.8 (n=10)

Quotes from Yogi Berra

• The future aint what it used to be!

• Baseball is 90% mental. The other half is physical.

• Nobody goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.

• I didn’t really say everything I said.

IPCC Emissions Scenarios for Asia in 2050(% Change from 1990)

Scenario CO2 NOx

A1B 277 172

A2 312 275

B1 142 93

B2 171 181

Predicted surface O3 in 2050 (Using IPCC A2 scenario)

Results from B. Lamb and J. Avise (WSU)

This is a very significant change in surface O3. The largest contributor is due to the “Boundary condition (BC) which is due

to changes in emissions outside the U.S.

Somebody’s got to do it…

J.B. Dennison hanging from a rope to install an air sampler

J.B. working on the gas inlet.

DJ working on the tower