Multiple impacts of energy efficiency Insights from the COMBI project

D8.3Grant Agreement No. 649724

Coordinated by Project partners

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement

No 649724. This document reflects only the author's view. The Agency is not responsible for any information it contains.

energy poverty/health |

productivity |

Macro-economy |

air pollution |

Resources |

energy system/security |

32 impacts

28 EU-countries

21 EEI actions

The COMBI project aimed at quantifying the multiple non-energy benefits of energy efficiency in the EU-28 area. It gathered

existing approaches and evidence from the EU area and developed modelling approaches. All data is analysable via a graphic

online-visualisation tool with data export function:

https://combi-project.eu/tool/

To this end, an aggregation methodology has been developed to avoid double-counting, deal with other aggregation issues

and for presenting the various impacts on their various dimensions. Finally, insights for policy relevance were derived and

policy recommendations elaborated to facilitate the communication of the non-energy benefits in the relevant policy areas.

Key results (annual values for 2030)

Air pollution Resources Social welfare Economy Energy system

>10,000 avoided pre-

mature deaths due to

PM2.5 (460 mn €) and

442 due to O3 (46 mn

€)

230,000 YOLLs of

avoided life expectancy

loss (26 bn €)

300Mt avoided direct

CO2eq emissions (17

bn €)

850 Mt savings of ma-

terial resources

3,000-24,000 avoided

premature deaths due

to indoor cold

(323 mn €-2.5 bn €)

2,700-22,300 avoided

DALYs due to indoor

dampness related

asthma (338 mn €-2.9

bn €)

39mn additional work-

days (4.7 bn €)

1% rise in GDP

(+161 bn € in GDP)

2.3 mn job-years

+86 bn € for public

budgets

Decrease in fossil fuel

prices (1.3% oil,

-2% coal, -2.9% gas)

Avoided generation of

power from combust-

ibles 257 TWh

(11 bn € of avoided in-

vestment)

Improved energy se-

curity up to 5% lower

fossil fuel import costs

(48 bn €)

WP3 report WP4 report WP5 / WP5a report WP6 report WP7 report

Key policy recommendations

• A more complete picture of (positive and negative) impacts of energy efficiency is a precondition for a hol-

istic assessment of policy impacts on various policy targets and for selecting those instruments and tar-

gets that maximize social welfare.

• An omission of one or more multiple impacts in cost-benefit analysis reduces the cost-effectiveness of EEI

actions below their actual value and leads to an underinvestment (sub-optimal level) in energy efficiency.

If multiple impacts are included into the assessment of policy scenarios, higher ambitions on energy effi-

ciency targets are more cost-effective.

• Energy efficiency is a case not only for cost savings and GHG Mitigation but also for improvements in hu-

man health, environment, agriculture, and can have positive stimulating effects on the economy. Making

more explicit the multiple impacts that concern policy targets of non-energy departments (e.g. health, so -

cial welfare, economy) may lead to a convergence of interest and may encourage inter-departmental and

cross-sectoral cooperation in policy making to pursue common goals.

• Quantified values of multiple impacts are beneficial to gain support for the implementation of respective

energy efficiency policies (from decision-makers, stakeholders and the general public) and to increase the

attractiveness of investments in energy efficiency for potential investors.

• Not the least, energy efficiency policy is a good investment for the finance ministries: a budget surplus of

annually up to € 85bn is more than the necessary energy efficiency policy is likely to cost. The EU should

ensure that all Member States are able to take this prudent investment in energy efficiency policy.

Selected COMBI Online Tool outputs

Figure 1: Monetary Impacts: Selected impacts that can be monetised (bn

€) sorted by impact (standard mode) and EEI actions in stacks online

Figure 2: Net marginal energy cost savings (total) for EU28 (including mul-

tiple impacts) (excluding modal shifts and trucks) online

COMBI: overview on project structure and main reports

1

Impacts modelling

Dedicated models

Input data COMBI stock models

BAS & EE scenario

• 2030 additional energy

savings (1647 TWh)

• additional energy cost

savings (225 bn €)

• total investment costs

8 0 0 0

9 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0

1 3 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

1 7 0 0 0

2 0 1 5 2 0 3 0

T W h / a

P R I M E S 2 0 0 7 B A S

P R I M E S 2 0 1 6 B A S

E U C O 2 7

E U C O 3 0

E U C O + 3 3

E U C O + 3 5

E U C O + 4 0

C O M B I R E F

C O M B I E E

additional data: stocks, scenario

levels etc.

COMBI online tool

• Physical impacts

• Monetary impacts

• Cost-Benefit

calculations

D2.2 EEI action description

(+ Annex on scenarios) D#.1 Literature reviews

D#.4 Quantification reports

D2.1 Synthesis lit. review

D2.4 Synthesis methodology

D2.7 Quantification report

D8.1 Tool manual & document.

D8.2 Policy report

D8.3 Summary brochure

Impact category models

air pollution (health,

eco-systems)

GAINS

resources MIPS/Lifecycle

assessment

health (indoor air

quality)

productivity

Socio-

economic

COMBI-model

economy (short/

long-term)

Input-Output

CGE (CECEM)

energy system

energy security

COMBI energy

balance model

21 Energy Efficiency Improvement (EEI) actions

32 Quantified Impacts

Impact category Impact

no.

Impact indicator

(expert mode)

physical unit monetisa-

tion

in standard

mode*

incl. in CBA

Energy 0 Energy savings TWh √ √ √

Air pollution 1 NOx kt

2 PM10 kt

3 PM2.5 kt

4 SO2 kt

5 VOC kt

Ecosystem de-

gradation

6 Acidification km2 (change in area affected

by excess acidification)

√ (6+7)

7 Eutrophication km2

(% change in area af-

fected by eutrophication)

√ (6+7)

Energy system/

security

8 Avoided electric power output

& investment costs

TWh √ √ √

9 De-rated reserve capacity rate Share (%)

10 Energy intensity kgoe/1000€ GDP

11 Energy security HH index % (change in index)

12 Fossil Fuel imports % (share from outside EU28 in

primary energy supply)

√

Labour pro-

ductivity

13 Active days gained (indoor ex-

posure/traffic congestion)

mn workdays √ √ (13+14+15) √

14 Reduced congestion

(avoided time loss in traffic)

mn workdays √ √ (13+14+15)

15 Workforce performance (ter-

tiary building refurbishm.)

mn workdays √ √ (13+14+15)

Mortality 16 Excess winter mortality Nr. of deaths per year √ √ (16+17+18) √ (16+17+18)

17 Mortality ozone Nr. of deaths per year √ √ (16+17+18) √ (16+17+18)

18 Mortality PM2.5 Nr. of deaths per year √ √ (16+17+18) √ (16+17+18)

Climate 19 Carbon footprint Mt CO2eq

20 direct GHG emissions Mt CO2eq √ √ √

Health/morbidity 21 Indoor air pollution 1000 DALYs √ √ (21+22+23) √ (21+22+23)

22 Winter morbidity (asthma) 1000 DALYs √ √ (21+22+23) √ (21+22+23)

23 YOLL PM2.5 1000 YOLL √ √ (21+22+23) √ (21+22+23)

Macro-economy 24 Employment (max) 1000 person-years

25 GDP (max) bn € √ √

26 Public budget (max) bn € √

Resources/ ma-

terial footprint

27 Biotic materials Mt √ (27 to 31)

28 Fossil fuels Mt √ √ (27 to 31)

29 Metal ores Mt √ √ (27 to 31)

30 Minerals Mt √ (27 to 31)

31 Unused extraction Mt √ (27 to 31)

*Numbers in brackets indicate which impacts are aggregated in standard mode.