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Toward Decarbonization and Depollution Pathwaysin Asian Regions
‐ AIM/Endues Bottom‐up Analyses ‐
Tatsuya HANAOKA
Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
0
The 25rd AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES
18‐19 November 2019
Research Objectives and Motivations in Asian Regions‐ Bottom‐up Approaches ‐
1
1. Challenges & barriers as well as cobenefits & trade‐offs of decarbonization and depollution measures in Asia regions by focusing on short‐ to mid‐term targets
2. Linkages between climate stabilization targets and SDGs targets, focusing on sector‐specific, region‐specific and issue‐specific. Effects of early‐actions on all Short‐Lived Climate Forcers (from the viewpoint of
climate impacts, health impacts, cost effectiveness, feasibility of mid‐term targets) Municipal solid waste management (e.g. waste composition and waste recycle, landfill
to incineration, waste to energy) Waste water management (e.g. behavior and nutrition food share change, trade‐offs
between quality of life and GHG increase) Reductions of nitrogen overload (from the viewpoint of reality of anthropogenic
measures, climate mitigation, ozone‐layer protection, air quality, health impacts)and so on
3. Inertia of behaviours, socio‐economics and technological changes, and transitions of future service demands.
Global CO2, SLCFs and Air Pollutants Projections‐ Exploring Effective SLCFs scenarios ‐
2
Reference (SSP2 based)
2D‐EoPmid‐RESTRT
EoPmax 2D‐EoPmax‐CCSBLD
2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRTEoPmid
2D‐EoPmax‐RESTRT 2D‐EoPmax‐RESBLDTRT
2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO2Em
ission
(PgCO
2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CH4Em
ission
(TgCH4)
020406080
100120140
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
SO2Em
ission
(TgSO
2)
020406080
100120140
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
NOx Em
ission
(TgN
Ox)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO Emission
(TgCO)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
BC Emission
(TgB
C)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
PM2.5Em
ission
(TgPM
2.5)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
VOC Em
ission
(TgV
OC)
EDGER4.3 HTAP
Source: (Hanaoka, T., Masui, T. Environ Pollut, accepted)
Emissions pathways of SLCPs and air pollutants are different due to combinations of low‐carbon and end‐of‐pipe measures, even if CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2℃ are similar.
All scenarios are 2℃ targets
One of key messages in last year’s presentation
SLCFs and decarbonization scenarios: China and India‐ Considering major combinations of mitigation measures ‐
3
Ref :Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in the current trendsEoPmid: enhancing EoP diffusion by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10EoPmax:100 % end‐of‐pipe diffusion by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM102D :Decarbonization mitigation measures toward 2℃ target. Carbon price in 2050 is 400US$/tCO2‐ CCS :in 2D scenario, especially energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS rather than renewables‐ RES :in 2D scenario, especially energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS‐ BLD :in 2D scenario, especially enhancing electrification in building sector by 2050 ‐ TRT :in 2D scenario, especially enhancing EV & FCV in passenger transport sector by 2050
ScenarioGroup
Scenariocode
Major combinations of mitigation measures on GHGs, air pollutants and SLCP
EoPenhancement
(EoP)
2℃ targetmeasures(2D)
CO2Enhancement
(CCS)
Renewableenhancement
(RES)
Electrificationenhancementin buildings(BLD)
ElectrificationEnhancement in transport(TRT)
Reference Ref
End‐of‐pipeonly
EoPmid Mid
EoPmax Max
2℃ target & End‐of‐pipe
2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD Mid ✔ ✔ ✔
2D‐EoPmid‐RESTRT Mid ✔ ✔ ✔
2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT Mid ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
2D‐EoPmax‐RESBLDTRT Max ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Please visit Mr. Hirayama’s poster
Source: (Hanaoka, T., Hirayama, T., Hibino, G., Masui, T. ICAE2019), (Hanaoka, T., et al, Appl Energ special issue, paper in preparation)
Emission pathways in China and India‐ CO2 as well as Air Pollutants and SLCPs ‐
4
REF EoPmid
EoPmax
2D‐EoPmid‐RESTRT 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT
2D‐EoPmax‐RESBLDTRT
China + India China India
NDC (CO2/GDP target: low) NDC (CO2/GDP target: High)
0
5
10
15
20
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO2Em
ission (Gt C
O2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO2Em
ission (Gt C
O2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
CO2Em
ission (Gt C
O2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
SO2Em
ission (M
t SO2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NOx Em
ission (M
t NOx)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BC Emission (M
t BC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PM2.5Em
ission (ktP
M.2.5)
China + India
NDC targets can be achieved in line with the current trend (i.e. under reference scenario)
India’s development will be rapid, thus deep decarbonization is not easy by 2050 in India, compared to China.
Pathways of SLCPs and air pollutants are different due to combinations of low‐carbon and end‐of‐pipe options, even if CO2 pathways equivalent to 2℃ are similar.
Source: (Hanaoka, T., Hirayama, T., Hibino, G., Masui, T. ICAE2019), (Hanaoka, T., et al, Appl Energ special issue, paper in preparation)
Sector‐wise emissions & mitigations: China & India
5
Emission (Power) Emission (Industry) Emission (Transport) Emission (Building) Emission (Ohters)
Mitigation (Power) Mitigation (Industry) Mitigation (Transport) Mitigation (Building) Mitigation (Others)
Emission (Mitigation)Emission (Reference)
(a)China (b) India(a‐1) 2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT (a‐2) 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD (b‐1) 2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT (b‐2) 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD
05
1015202530
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
SO2Em
ission [M
tSO2]
02468
1012
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
SO2Em
ission [M
tSO2]
0
10
20
30
40
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NOx Em
ission [M
tNOx]
0
5
10
15
20
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NOx Em
ission [M
tNOx]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BC Emission [M
tBC]
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BC Emission [M
tBC]
05
1015202530
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
SO2Em
ission [M
tSO2]
02468
1012
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050SO
2Em
ission [M
tSO2]
0
10
20
30
40
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NOx Em
ission [M
tNOx]
0
5
10
15
20
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
NOx Em
ission [M
tNOx]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BC Emission [M
tBC]
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
BC Emission [M
tBC]
Major sectors of effective options are different depending on air pollutants and SLCFs
Source: (Hanaoka, T., Hirayama, T., Hibino, G., Masui, T. ICAE2019), (Hanaoka, T., et al, Appl Energ special issue, paper in preparation)
Cumulative additional investment and sector‐wise effects
End‐of‐Pipe measures Low carbon measures (Power)
Low carbon measures (Industry)
Low carbon measures (Transport)
Low carbon measures (Building)
Low carbon measures (Others)
Cumulative additional investment
Cumulative additional investments are also largely different, depending on combinations of low carbon measures. Cumulative costs of 2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT is higher compared to cumulative costs of 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD by 2050, nearly double in China for example.
EoP measures are very cheap but they are effective for reducing specific gases only. Low carbon measures have multiple effect for reducing large amount of air pollutants and SLCPs. But
they cost more than EoP.
6
(a)China (b) India
(a‐1) 2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT (a‐2) 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD (b‐1) 2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT (b‐2) 2D‐EoPmid‐CCSBLD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Cumulative additio
nal investm
ent [Trill US$]
Share of cum
ulative additio
nal investm
ent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Cumulative additio
nal investm
ent [Trill US$]
Share of cum
ulative additio
nal investm
ent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Cumulative additio
nal investm
ent [Trill US$]
Share of cum
ulative additio
nal investm
ent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Cumulative additio
nal investm
ent [Trill US$]
Share of cum
ulative additio
nal investm
ent
Source: (Hanaoka, T., Hirayama, T., Hibino, G., Masui, T. ICAE2019), (Hanaoka, T., et al, Appl Energ special issue, paper in preparation)
Challenges toward Net Zero Emission
7Source: (Hanaoka, T., Hirayama, T., Hibino, G., Masui, T. ICAE2019), (Hanaoka, T., et al, AE special issue, paper in preparation)
Emission (Power) Emission (Industry) Emission (Transport) Emission (Building) Emission (Ohters)
Mitigation (Power) Mitigation (Industry) Mitigation (Transport) Mitigation (Building) Mitigation (Others)
Emission (Mitigation)Emission (Reference)
(a)China (b) India2D‐EoPmid‐RESBLDTRT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050CO
2em
ission [Gt C
O2]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050CO
2em
ission [Gt C
O2]
How to reduce remaining emissions in the demand side toward net Zero?
Challenges toward Low Carbon of Iron & Steel Industry in China‐ Emission Projections and Allocations Considering Plant Location and Capacity
8Source: (Li, Z., Hanaoka, T., Resour Conserv Recy, under review), (Li, Z., Hanaoka, T., ICAE2019), (Li, Z., Hanaoka, T., paper in preparation)
Method of Scrap&Build LPS and Emission Allocation
LPS location and capacity in 2017 & 2050
China’s crude steel production is dominant in the world, which account for 49.6 % of world productions in 2015.
China will reach to the over‐capacity of crude steel production in the coming decade, thus it is necessary to consider scrap&build (i.e. phasing out old & inefficient plants and investing advanced plants) and appropriate locations and capacity based on China’s Policies
Mitigation potentials are large in Central China, but mitigation costs will become steep from a certain level of mitigations, because of limitations of mitigation options.
Emission Reductions and Abatement Costs in 2050in COC(Central China), Middle China(MOC) and Rest of China(ROC)
In details, please visit Dr. Li’s poster
Urbanresidential Ruralresidential Service
SO
2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FIX2 REF BIO ELE NZE
NO
xB
CP
M2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 20502010 2020 2030 2040 20502010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
YearG
as e
mis
sion
(Mt)
Decarbonization in Province‐wise Residential & Commercial in China‐ Contribution to China’s NDC and Cobenefit of Reducing Indoor Air Pollution ‐
9Source: (Xing, R., Hanaoka, T., Masui, T., paper to be submitted)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
10
20
30
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
8
CO
2em
issi
onM
t
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
20
40
60
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
10
20
30
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
25
50
75
100
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
FIX2 REF BIO ELE NZE
Urban residential
Rural residentialService
Beijing Hebei Shanghai Anhui
Heating Degree Day
(HDD18)
0‐10621063‐21232124‐31843185‐42454246+ (2011US$)
42686‐48754876‐70657066‐92559256‐1144411445+
GDP per capita Province‐wise socio‐economic and environmental diversities have effects on rural&urban province‐wise energy profiles as well as potentials to diffuse advanced technologies, which become barriers toward deep decarbonization in the building sector.
By considering barriers, it is difficult to achieve Zero Energy Building or Zero Emission Building in China, especially in rural residential, but decarbonization policy will have cobenefits on reducing indoor air pollution in urban residential and service
Current Socio‐economic & Environmental Diversities
Province‐wise Rural & Urban CO2 Emissions National Urban & Rural Air Pollutant Emissions
Energy Demand Projections in State‐wise Residential in India‐ Dynamic Transitions in Rural & Urban by States ‐
10Source: (Yawale, S., Hanaoka, T., Kapshe, M., Renew Sust Energ Rev, under review), (Yawale, S., Hanaoka, T., paper in preparation)
To project future province‐wise rural & urban energy demands, it is necessary to develop province‐wise Energy Balances Table.
The more urbanized and more economic developed, the less traditional energy and the less per‐capita energy.
Energy demands sharply increase in cooling, cooking, and electric appliances in urban, but national average per capita energy level is still low in the future compared to the current developed country levels.
Energy‐wise per capita energy consumption and GDP per capita in 2011
State‐wise Urban&Rural Energy Demand Projections up to 2070
In details, please visit Dr. Yawale’s posterBR
JU
PUM
PCN
ES OD
J&K RJ WB
KA AP
TN KL HP
HPC G
JM
HO
TH DL
BRJ
UPU
MPC
NES OD
J&K RJ WB
KA AP
TN KL HP
HPC G
JM
HO
TH DL
Electricity LPG Kerosene Charcoal Coal Bio-mass GDPP
Per-
capi
ta en
ergy
con
sum
ptio
n [G
J/ca
pita
/Yea
r]
GD
P pe
r cap
ita ('
000
INR
)
0
4
8
12
0
60
120
180
a. Rural b. Urban
low middle high low middle highIncome group
Cooking Lighting
Cooling
Other Appliance
Hot-water Heating
2010
2030
2050
2070
2010
2030
2050
2070
2010
2030
2050
2070
2010
2030
2050
2070
2010
2030
2050
2070
2010
2030
2050
2070
0.0
2.5
5.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
Stat
e-w
ise
tota
l ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
(EJ/
year
)
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar & Jharkhand
Delhi
Gujarat
Himachal PradeshHaryana Punjab & Chandigarh
Jammu & Kashmir
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh & ChhattisgarhMaharashtra North-East States
Orissa Other Union Territories
Rajasthan
Tamil-Nadu
Uttar-Pradesh & UttarakhandWest-Bengal
WORLD
INDIA
Japan
CHINA
Thailand
United Kingdom
USA
Indonesia
France
Total_energy
0
15
30
45
Residential total energy consumption GJ/Capita
Per-c
apita
total
energ
y co
nsum
ption
[GJ/C
apita
]
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2050
2070
2030
2020
World average India
Japan
China
Germany UKUSA
Indonesia
France
Short‐Lived Climate Pollutant Precursor of tropospheric O3
Global Anthropogenic Historical Emissions‐ Importance of ASEAN ‐
11
CHN IND ASEAN Other Asia OECDLatin America Middle East & Afriga Economies in Transition Intl Aviation&Navigaiton
Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2
0
10
20
30
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CO2 emission[Gt CO2]
020406080100120140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SO2 emission[Mt SO2]
020406080
100120140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
NOx emission[Mt NOx]
0100200300400500600700
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CO emission[Mt CO]
0
100
200
300
400
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CH4 emission[Mt CH4]
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
BC emission[Mt BC]
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PM2.5 emission[Gt PM2.5]
0
50
100
150
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
NMVOC emission[Mt NMVOC]
SLCPs and air pollutants emissions from South‐east and South Asia has been on the increase
2℃ Targets and Mitigation Potentials by Sector in ASEAN‐ Deep‐Cutting beyond NDCs and Cobenfits for Air Pollutants and SLCFs ‐
12Source: (Hanaoka, T., International Regional Science Meeting 2019)
EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReferenceProjections
Major sectors of effective mitigation options are different by gas Important to carefully consider constraints like inertia, energy transition, technological feasibility Important to pay attention to CH4, N2O and NH3 related to non‐energy sectors.
Power Mining Industry Transport Residential Commercial Waste AgricultureMitigations
0
1
2
3
4
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO2Em
ission
(GtCO
2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 2010 2030 2050
SO2Em
ission
(MtSO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
NOx Em
ission
(MtNOx)
0102030405060708090
1990 2010 2030 2050
CO Emission
(MtCO)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2010 2030 2050
CH4Em
ission
(MtCH4)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2010 2030 2050
BC Emission
(MtBC)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2010 2030 2050
PM2.5Em
ission
(MtPM
2.5)
02468
1012141618
1990 2010 2030 2050
VOC Em
ission
(MtVOC)
Regional Passenger Road Transport Demands and Emissions in Thailand‐ Current Exhaust Emissions Regulatory Scenario ‐
13Source: (Cheewaphongphan, P., Hanaoka, T., Chatani, S. paper to be submitted)
Diversities of socio‐economics and transport demands
It is important to consider regional socio‐economic diversities and mode‐wise characteristics carefully, for estimating future transport volumes.
It is necessary to consider baseline scenario to understand inertia of current regulations and its characteristic among demand growth, efficient vehicle diffusion and CO2 & air pollutants emissions.
Effects on emissions by travel demand growth are larger than by inertia of efficient vehicle diffusion, especially in BMR, NER and ETR areas. Thus, it is important to consider mitigation policies such as EV and biofuel.
Current Exhaust Emissions Regulation
Relations among demand growth, vehicle diffusion and PM emission in 2050 under Baseline scenario
(pkm)
Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelhttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html
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