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Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 13, 411±426 2001) DOI: 10.1002/jid.795 AIDS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICA: A PANEL DATAANALYSIS SIMON DIXON 1 *, SCOTT McDONALD 2 and JENNIFER ROBERTS 1 1 Shef®eld Health Economics Group, University of Shef®eld, UK 2 Department of Economics, University of Shef®eld, UK Abstract: HIV/AIDS is the dominant health issue in Africa, where in many countries the human and social costs are devastating. Any deterioration in economic performance is likely to compound these costs and render countries less able to cope with the epidemic. However, conventional economic theories of growth argue that the impact of such an epidemic on the growth rate and level of income may be positive or negative. The analyses reported in this paper assess the impact of the HIV epidemic upon economic growth performance in 41 African economies between 1960 and 1998. The results indicate that for African countries where the prevalence of HIV is relatively low the impact of the epidemic conforms to `normal' economic expectations. However, when the prevalence of the epidemic is relatively high the macroeco- nomic impact of the epidemic is unclear. Copyright # 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. INTRODUCTION HIV/AIDS is the world's fourth biggest cause of death, after heart disease, strokes and acute lower respiratory infections World Health Organisation, 1999). The latter primarily affect people in old age, whereas AIDS deaths are concentrated among prime age adults who are at their productive and reproductive peak. Estimates of the prevalence of HIV/ AIDS have increased markedly in recent years with infection rates reaching 25 per cent among the sexually active populations in the AIDS belt of Africa, which runs south from Sudan and the Central African Republic to South Africa. It is therefore not surprising that life expectancy estimates for sub-Saharan Africa SSA) have declined sharply: estimates suggest that by 2005±10 life expectancy at birth in the nine countries with the highest HIV prevalence rates will decline by an average of 17 years. The human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are inevitably, and justi®ably, major causes for concern. The epidemic is also likely to induce major changes in economic and social relation- ships, with the increases in morbidity and mortality threatening to eliminate 25 years of social development gains in Africa. It might be argued that the consequences of the Copyright # 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Correspondence to: S. McDonald, Department of Economics, University of Shef®eld, 9 Mappin Street, Shef®eld S1 4DT UK. E-mail: S.Mcdonald@shef®eld.ac.uk

AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis

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Page 1: AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis

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