Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
AIC ALTERNATIVES SEMINAR 2019 - LONDON1OTH OCTOBER 2019
PROPERTY EQUITIES: REAL ESTATE EXPOSURE WITH LIQUIDITY
Agenda
2
Section Page
1 Property as an asset class 5
2 Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) 14
Presenting
Supermarket Income REIT plc
Registered Office:7th Floor9 Berkeley StreetLondonW1J 8DW
Contact
Ben Green
Principal – Atrato Capital,Investment adviser to Supermarket Income REIT
Telephone: +44 20 3790 8087Email: [email protected]
www.supermarketincomereit.com
Ben has over 20 years’ of experience structuring and executing real estate transactions. He has completed more than £4.5 billion of sale and leaseback transactions with occupiers including Barclays, the BBC and Tesco.
Ben qualified as a lawyer in 1997 and began his career at Wilde Sapte and Linklaters LLP. He left law in 2000 and has since spent his banking career at Barclays, Lloyds and Goldman Sachs where he was Managing Director, European Head of Structure Finance.
3
Property as an asset class
4
Why it’s still ok to own (most of) this asset class now Real estate is attractive for two reasons:
Fundamentals1
Income stream with a capital kicker
Rental growth
Yield comparison (margin over fixed income)
Tenant demand improving (ex non food retail)
Lack of supply of new space(non existent development cycle 2008-2014)
• NAV• Earnings growth• Attractive debt cost
Valuation2
5
Fundamentals of real estate: Historical high and secure income
MSCI UK All Property Total Return Breakdown
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019YTD
Income Return All Property Capital Growth All Property
Source : BMO Global Asset Management, MSCI. Data as at 23.05.2019
6
Income – still growing
BBB yield vs. EPRA dividend yield
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yield SpreadFTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Index Dividend YieldBloomberg Barclays Euro Corporate 500 - BBB ISMA Yield To Worst
Potential benefits of listed real estate
• Liquidity• Diversification• Low holding cost• Fractional ownership• Best assets and management• Access to capital markets
…and critically
Real Estate Securities = Real Property
Facility 2018 2019 2020
Earnings yield* 5.3% 5.5% 5.8%
Dividend yield* 4.0% 4.1% 4.3%
Yields are not a guarantee of future performance and should not be relied upon for any investment decision. *The above table shows the average yields of all companies within our investment universe according to BMO Global Asset Management’s internal company models Source : BMO Global Asset Management. Bloomberg. Chart data as at 01.05.2019. Table data as at 23.05.2019
.
7
Real estate securities = real property
Increasing correlation of FTSE EPRA Nareit UK (property shares) vs. MSCI UK Property Index over longer holding periods
0.33
0.53
0.64
0.73
0.77
0.75
0.89
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year
EPRA UK and IPD 6-month forward
Source : BMO Global Asset Management. Data as at 13.05.2019
Past correlations are not indicative of future correlations.
8
Open-ended funds…..at risk
Source:; 1 Citywire – 27 February 2019; 2 Investment Europe – 1 April 2019; 3 Financial Times – 11 February 2019; 4 IPE – 8 October 2018; 5 Money Week – 20 February 2019; 6 IPE– March 2006
An open-ended fund dilemma (IPE - March 2006)The conservative world of German open-ended real estate funds is in disorder. In the past few months three funds have had to close down temporarily as a result of a lack of liquidity. One of the funds is managed by a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank and is one of the oldest and largest funds in Germany. What happened?6
FCA unveils plans to reform UK's open-ended real estate funds4
Planned ban on open-ended property funds will hit Germany hard, warns trade bodyBerlin’s proposal to prohibit launching new open-ended property funds and property Spezialfonds, as part of implementing European-wide plans to regulate alternative products will hit German investors hard, cautions the national fund trade body.2
Open-ended property funs risk suspensions within weeks, warns Fitch1
9
TR Property Investment Trust - Track record
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Source : BMO Global Asset Management. Data as at 21.05.2019 Benchmark: Prior to 01.04.2013 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Index (Net, GBP). Prior to 01.04.2012 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Index (GBP). Prior to 01.04.2007 S&P Citigroup European Property Index. Prior to 01.09.2001 FTSE Real Estate index.
Long Term Track Record - Capital Only
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
TR Property Investment Trust (NAV with Income) 3.5% 37.3% 84.0%
FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Capped Index (Net, GBP, Total Return) 0.0% 24.0% 55.6%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1,000%
1,200%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
TR Property Investment Trust (Capital Only NAV) FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Capped Index (Net, GBP, Capital Only)
Standardised Track Record – NAV with Income
10
TR Property Investment Trust - Dividend history
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Source : BMO Global Asset Management. Data as at 30.05.2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Penc
e Pe
r Sha
re
Interim Final
• FY19 13.5p (10.7% increase on FY18)
• Dividend increase 2.3x since March 2009
• Fully covered
• 10 year compound annualised growth rate 8.9%
11
Positive asset sentiment
Investment Themes – “sheds, meds and beds”
Source : BMO Global Asset Management and Jefferies equity research (April 2019)
Reasons to be cheerful…….
12
• Real estate equities earnings yield 5.3% (FY18)
• FY19 forecast 5.5%
• Property is an income stream linked to economic growth not a fixed income stream
• If cost of debt rises and that is a consequence of economic growth then rental growth will follow
Get your income from real estate not corporate bonds
Source: BMO Global Asset Management. Data as at 13.05.2019
13
Supermarket Income REIT
14
Last mile grocery fulfilment in the UK
Mission critical omnichannel stores Strong trading track record
Large flexiblesites
RPI linked rents
Long leases with no breaks
Highly specific investment strategy – cherry picking assets
This is a target dividend not a forecast. Dividends are subject to quarterly board approval. Target based off 5.80p FY19/20 dividend forecast and share price at close 18/09/2019
5.5% Dividend target
Increasing with RPI
Long term capital growth
106
41
25
12 10
109
48
34
17
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Supermarkets Convenience Discount Online Other retailers
£Bn’
s
2019 Value (£bn) 2024 Value (£bn)
Investing in the future model of UK grocery Omnichannel stores combine supermarkets (the most dominant channel) with online (the fastest growing channel)
15
74%
26%
In-store fulfilment CFC discribution
74% of online grocery orders are fulfilled in
supermarkets (2)
(1) Source IGD 2019(2) Atrato Capital, IGD, Retail Gazette sales data from Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Ocado
IGD Channel forecasts 2019 - 2024 (1)
16
Last mile grocery fulfilment in the UK
Tesco’s online distribution network (1)
• In-store fulfilment (337)• Online only (6)
90% of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Waitrose online grocery orders are fulfilled in-store (2)
(1) Based on Atrato Capital research, www.maps.espatial.com (2) Atrato Capital research IGD, Retail Gazette and Tesco, Sainsbury’s, ASDA and Ocado websites.
Omnichannel stores have optimal characteristics for last mile fulfilment• Larger full range stores - urban warehouse• Situated in population centres – key for last mile
logistics
• Modern flexible buildings operating multiple models –instore, home delivery and click and collect
Online only fulfilment focused on M25 area• London is poorly served by supermarkets – floorspace
is 30% below national average (2)
• Population density required for online only stores - 5.6 million people within 60 mins of Tesco Croydon online only facility (1)
Sainsbury’s online distribution network (1)
• In-store fulfilment (118)• Online only (1)
Online opening dates2016: Bromley
Online opening dates2009: Croydon
2009: Aylesford 2010: Greenford
2013: Crawley 2013: Erith
2014: Didcot
The shift to omnichannel retailing
17
Alibaba launches TMALL Supermarket selling grocery via
its network of distribution centres
Alibaba Launches physical supermarket Hema, combining online
and offline shopping
2012
2015
88 Hema stores opened in 2018 -plans to open a branch in every Chinese city with over 1 million
residents
2019
Move to omnichannel
2017
Marks and Spencer trial online food delivery service in London and
Reading
Move to omnichannel
2019
M&S acquires 50% of Ocado UK grocery business for £750m
Walmart commences testing on home delivery service, not until
2014 is click and collect launched
2019
2011
Walmart announces $11bn US store investment:
• 20+ new 125,000 sq ft stores• Online grocery pickup expanded
to 1,000 further stores• Self service pick up towers
expanded to 500 stores
Move to omnichannel
Move to omnichannel
Move to omnichannel
Amazon moves from clicks to bricks with $13.7 billion Whole Foods
acquisition
Amazon launch Fresh, selling and delivering grocery through its
fulfilment centres
2007
Morrisons and Amazon expandsame day, instore pick offering to
further 5 UK cities
2017
2019
Move toomnichannel
Move to omnichannel
Move to omnichannel
5.2
2.5
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Yiel
d (%
)
Supermarket NIY Tesco Corporate Bond - Dec 2029
Supermarket valuations have decoupled from bonds
18
Historical performance of supermarket yields and Tesco corporate bonds (2029) (1)
(1) Source MSCI IPD and Thomson Reuters.
2.7%Spread
Supermarket leases offer one of the cheapest sources of RPI
19
4.3
5.2
1.4
(2.6)(3.0)
0.0
3.0
6.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Yiel
d (%
)
Supermarket NIY UK gilts 2035
Historical performance of supermarket yields and UK index linked gilts (2035) (1)
7.8%spread
(1) Source MSCI IPD and Thomson Reuters.
2.9%spread
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net
initi
al y
ield
(%)
Supermarket UK Commercial Property Distribution Warehouse
Supermarket yields offer value vs other UK property
20
MSCI Yields 2004 -2019 (1)
MSCI Net Initial Yields June 2019Supermarkets 5.2%Distribution warehouses 4.7%UK Commercial property 4.6%
(1) Source MSCI IPD 2019
108
100
95
85
95
105
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19
Shar
e pr
ice
(reb
ased
100
)
SUPR.L FTSE All Share Total ReturnFTSE EPRA Nareit
21
Share performance
Relative share price performance for the year
(1) Bloomberg 2019. Trading volumes monthly since IPO
8.0% Total Shareholder Return
SUPR ordinary shares daily traded amount – 4 week rolling average
300% increase in traded volume
Trading volume – 4 week rolling daily average since IPO
90k
425k
100
200
300
400
500
Jul 2017 Nov 2017 Mar 2018 Jul 2018 Nov 2018 Mar 2019 Jul 2019
Num
ber o
f Sh
ares
000
s
Trendline
£26 psft real rent
£15 psft real rent
£9 psft real rent
Outline returns profile
22
Rent RPI uplifts Sell at ERV of £27 psft (2) 7.5% IRR
Sell at ERV of £45 psft
Sell at ERV of £15 psft 6.0% IRR
10.0% IRR
=
=
=
+ +
Illustrative IRR profile from contracted rents plus different ERV assumptions (1)
(1) Assumptions: Single property circa £2.6m annual passing rent, £50m purchase price, 19 years WAULT, 3.2% annual RPI growth and sales proceeds equal to 5% exit yield assuming various ERV rents psft as per above. Includes leverage at 40% LTV assuming 2.4% annual finance costs. ERV = estimated reversion rent value on expiry. (2) Average passing rent for the portfolio FY 2018/19
There is no certainty that these illustrative projections will be achieved
23
IMPORTANT NOTICE
The information provided in this Presentation is for background purposes only and may be materially updated, completed, revised or amended without notice. Neither the Company nor anyone else is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this Presentation. No reliance should be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents or any other persons as to the accuracy, fairness, completeness, verification or sufficiency of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation.
Statements contained in this document, particularly those regarding possible or assumed future financial or other performance, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward-looking statements and as such involve risks, uncertainties and factors beyond the Company's control. Actual results and developments may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements, depending on a variety of factors. Historic performance achieved in relation to properties or securities in the past is not indicative of future performance. No representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts and nothing in this Presentation is or should be relied on as a promise or representation as to the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit estimate or forecast.
AIC ALTERNATIVES SEMINAR 2019 - LONDONAgendaSlide Number 3Why it’s still ok to own (most of) this asset class now Fundamentals of real estate: Historical high and secure incomeIncome – still growingReal estate securities = real propertyOpen-ended funds…..at riskTR Property Investment Trust - Track record TR Property Investment Trust - Dividend historySlide Number 11Reasons to be cheerful…….Slide Number 13Highly specific investment strategy – cherry picking assets Investing in the future model of UK grocery �Omnichannel stores combine supermarkets (the most dominant channel) with online (the fastest growing channel) Last mile grocery fulfilment in the UKThe shift to omnichannel retailingSupermarket valuations have decoupled from bondsSupermarket leases offer one of the cheapest sources of RPISupermarket yields offer value vs other UK propertyShare performanceOutline returns profileSlide Number 23