31
1 f statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on histori “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act y differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual r those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional econo market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory gy change. Any ‘forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they a ng commentary is on a continuing operations basis. Any growth percentages (excl. EPS) are shown on an underly d for the impact of exchange rate movements on the translation of foreign locations’ profit and excluding int rate hedge volatility. AIB Mortgage Bank Asset Covered Securities April 2010

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AIB Mortgage Bank Asset Covered Securities April 2010. A number of statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

1

A number of statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact,

but will be “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ

materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions,

levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and

technology change. Any ‘forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they are made.

The following commentary is on a continuing operations basis. Any growth percentages (excl. EPS) are shown on an underlying basis,

adjusted for the impact of exchange rate movements on the translation of foreign locations’ profit and excluding interest

rate hedge volatility.

AIB Mortgage Bank Asset Covered Securities

April 2010

Page 2: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

2

AgendaAgenda

Allied Irish Banks

Key events 2008 – 2010

Pro-forma Post Nama & Disposals Loan Books

AIB Mortgage Book

Funding

Irish Economy

Asset Covered Securities - Ireland

AIB Mortgage Bank

Page 3: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

3

Allied Irish Banks – key events 2008 - 2010Allied Irish Banks – key events 2008 - 2010

2008 Q 4 announcements Ratings Aa2 / A+ / AA- Sept. – Irish Govt announces bank liability guarantee scheme

2009 H 1 announcements March 2008 Dividend missed, Board changes, Ch, CEO,CFO May €3.5b Preference Shares + warrants issued to Gov’t June € 2.4b Capital buy back creates € 1.1b gain

2009 H 2 announcements Aug. Press statement – potential equity investment Sept. Gov’t proposals for new Guarantee Scheme (ELG) & NAMA proposals, total scheme at c. €84b.of Prop.& Const. loans , AIB €24b Sept. & Nov. AIB re-enters unguaranteed 3yr & 5yr bond market Nov. Further Board appointments Dec. EC ruling requires AIB to defer ‘may pay coupons’ T (i) & Upper T (ii) Dec. Shareholder EGM votes to accept NAMA participation

2010 March announcements

€1.8b Lw T(ii) Exchange, generates Core T(i) €445m Regulator requires AIB to raise equivalent of €7.4bn of capital; targeting a Equity T1 ratio of 7% First tranche of NAMA loans €3.3b @ 42% discount Ratings A1 / A-(n) / A-

Page 4: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

4

Pro-forma post NAMA, post disposal Pro-forma post NAMA, post disposal

Loan Book Capital Markets c. €22.4bn

Well spread across sectors and geographies Emerging signs of stability

Republic of Ireland c. €58.4bn

22%

21%11%

46%

Mortgages

Property & Construction

Other Commercial

Other Personal

Reorganisation of credit and risk functions

Targeted equity ratio 7%, core tier one ratio 8%

Significantly de-risked and recapitalised profile

Page 5: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

5

AIB Bank Republic of Ireland – Total Mortgage BookAIB Bank Republic of Ireland – Total Mortgage Book

Total book €27.1bn, up 6% in 2009 c. 36% share of all new business written in the Irish market

Borrower profile

64%

29%

7%

Owner occupier Buy to let Staff / others

Arrears profile remains better than peers 90+ days 1.96% including impaired loans of €429m

Buy to let arrears more than twice owner occupier level of 1.5%

Bad debt charge €91m in 2009, 35 bps of average mortgages Unemployment to determine future loss levels

AIBMB’s Historical Quarterly Cover Asset Pool Data – provided on web site

Page 6: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

6

Allied Irish Banks – 2009 - Funding Allied Irish Banks – 2009 - Funding

Solid funding base in still challenging conditions Customer deposits 51% of funding, up from 49%

at June

Loan deposit ratio 146% (123% excluding held for sale assets NAMA), down from 156% at June

2 successful non Government guaranteed bond issues in H2

ELG facilitates guaranteed issuance out to 5 years

€48bn in qualifying liquid assets / contingent funding at year end and continuing to increase capacity

NAMA bonds to significantly improve liquidity profile

Balanced funding maturity profile post 2010

Funding from monetary authorities not material

0

20

40

60

80

100

June 2009 Dec 2009

%

49%

19%

4%3%

8%

7%

10%

51%

15%

6%3%

5%

10%

10%

Senior Debt

Capital

Deposits by banks – unsecured

Deposits by banks – secured

Customer a/cs

ACS

CDs & CPs

Page 7: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

7

Irish EconomyIrish Economy

Economic Performance in Recent Years

Impact of housing downturn from 2007

Housing sector remains weak

Mortgage debt in decline

Framework for recovery

Improving economic conditions

Public finances stabilise

Irish Economic Data & Forecasts 2006 -2011

Stronger Performance from 2012

Page 8: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

8

Economic Performance Economic Performance Irish economy outperformed strongly from

1994 to 2007

Rapid growth in domestic demand took over from traded sector as main driver of growth

Big rise in employment from 1994 – 2007 with large inward migration. Period of very low unemployment

But, economy entered recession in 2008 for first time since 1982

GDP declined by 3% in 2008 after 14 years of buoyant growth

Sharp decline in GDP of some 7% in 2009: further contraction likely in 2010

Housing collapse knocks some 10% directly off GDP in 2007-2010

Deep global recession also impacts on very open Irish economy

Very sharp tightening of Irish fiscal policy depressing activity even further

GDP GROWTH 1994-2011 (%)

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Ireland

Euro Area

Source; CSO, Eurostat, AIB ERU Forecasts

Labour Force and Employment Growth Y/Y % Change

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09

Labour Force Employment

%

Source; CSO

Page 9: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

9

Impact of housing downturn on economy Impact of housing downturn on economy

Housing became a very large sector of economy - over 14% of GDP in 2005/06

Sharp fall in house building activity knocks around 10% off GDP: some 2% in 2010

Housing completions fell to 26,000 in 2009 from 88,000 in 2006.

Housing investment to fall further to close to 3% of GDP in 2010/11 (an 80% contraction)

Big drop in house prices of 45-50%

50% fall in construction employment

Significant negative knock-on effects on household spending and confidence

Big hit on government finances via a sharp decline in property taxes and rising cost of unemployment benefit

Banking system hit by rising bad debts in property sector, curtailing credit, with banks requiring State support

National House Price Inflation

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Month-on-Month : LHS Year-on-Year : RHS

% %

Source: permanent tsb/ESRI

Housing Investment as % of GDP

0

3

6

9

12

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011(F) 2013(F)

Source: CSO; AIB ERU Forecasts

Page 10: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

10

Housing sector remains weakHousing sector remains weak

Housing output to fall further to 10,000 units in 2010 and 8,000 in 2011 from 26,000 in 2009 and almost 90,000 at peak

Very low level of new construction activity. Commencements have declined to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of only 6,000

Once-off builds account for over 70% of starts. Multi-unit developments running at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of just 1,500 units

Migration flows have turned negative. Outflow of -50,000 estimate in year to April 2010 v 2006/07 inflows of 70,000 per annum

Outward migration depressing demand but population growth still supportive.

Forecast demand for 20,000 – 25,000 units per annum over 2010-2012; longer term demand of 35,000-40,000

Very low levels of new supply will help erode excess stock

Prices continue to adjust lower but recent indications are that pace of decline is slowing

Housing Completions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 (f)

Source: CSO; DoEHLG and AIB ERU forecasts

House Commencements

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: DoEHLG, AIB ERU Calculations

3 Month Moving Average Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate : LHS

Single Units as Percentage of Total Commencements : RHS

Page 11: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

11

Mortgage debt in declineMortgage debt in decline Strong increase in personal sector

indebtedness to 2007 – largely mortgage related (85% of household debt)

Residential mortgage indebtedness grew from under €25bn at end 1999 to €123bn at end 2007

Rate of growth in mortgage debt outstanding has turned negative

28,333 mortgages (3.6% of total) more than 3 months in arrears in Q4 2009

Still extremely low level of repossessions – especially from main stream lenders

Repayment affordability at best level since 1995 but set to deteriorate

Wage cuts and tax increases impacting

on disposable income

Mortgage rates are on the rise as lenders

increase margins

Residential Mortgage Lending Adjusted* Series: YoY % Change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

%

Source: CBFSAI

* Adjusted for Securitisations and Reclassifications

Personal Sector Debt Ratio (%)Debt/ Disposible Income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (e)

Source: CSO, CB&FSAI, AIB ERU Forecasts

Page 12: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

12

Framework being put in place for economic recoveryFramework being put in place for economic recovery Rebalancing of the economy

Much lower exposure to construction

BoP moving towards balance with increased focus on exports

Recovery in household savings with private debt levels falling

Fiscal consolidation Corrective fiscal measures of 7.5% of GDP in 2009-2010

Budget deficit stabilised

Further but more modest corrective fiscal measures in store post 2010

Resolving banking crisis Transfer of P & C loans to NAMA in 2010

Recapitalisation of banking system – Gov injects substantial funds

Improving the flow of liquidity

Improving competitiveness Engineering a real devaluation

Wages and prices in marked decline. House prices and rents fall sharply

International recovery now underway FDI into Ireland rose in 2009 (UNctad) and world trade now recovering

Page 13: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

13

Economy now stabilisingEconomy now stabilising Manufacturing PMI hit 53.0 in March, its

highest level since Sept 2007

Services PMI at 49.6 in March, the best level since January 2008

Retail sales have bottomed out

Car sales surge on scrappage scheme

Home sales pick up and rents stabilising

Consumer confidence on the rise

Industrial production held up reasonably well in 2009 and rose strongly in Jan 2010

Strong pick up in service exports in H2 ‘09

BoP deficit halved in 2009

Rate of increase in Live Register has moderated markedly since mid-2009

Decline in monthly redundancy numbers evident since mid-2009

Ireland Composite PMI and GDP (Y/Y % Change)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

Source: Thomson Datastream & AIB ERU

Composite PMI (LHS)

GDP Y/Y % Change (RHS)

Unemployment Rate (%)

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

Source : Thomson Datastream

Page 14: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

14

Key indicators improvingKey indicators improving

Consumer Confidence (ESRI - KBC)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Source: ESRI - IIB, Thomson Datastream

Confidence Indicator

Expectations Component

Exports of Services (Volume Yr-on-Yr % Change)

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Q1-04 Q3-04 Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07 Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09

Source : CSO

Retail Sales (Total and Core Sales, ex autos)(Y-on-Y % Change)

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10Source: Thomson Datastream

Y-on-Y 3 Month Moving Average (Total Sales)

Total Sales

Core

Industrial Production Volume: 3 Mth Moving Average Y/Y %

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10Source: Thomson Datastream

Page 15: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

15

Improving economic conditions this yearImproving economic conditions this year Exports to pick up on improving global

trade - BoP deficit to be largely eliminated

Household savings have risen to a high

level and could support spending

Easing in the pace of job losses given

downturn in construction well advanced

Unemployment to level off as

redundancies ease and emigration rises

Rising consumer & business confidence

Further decline in consumer prices

Irish HICP rate to remain well below UK &

eurozone levels

Sharply falling unit wage costs (-8% in

2009/10) helping competitiveness

Housing market begins to stabilise as

new supply falls to very low levels

Stabilisation of budget deficit

Irish Personal Savings Rate (%)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (e) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 2011 (f)

Source: CSO, AIB ERU

Irish and Eurozone Inflation (HICP Rates)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Irish HICP

Eurozone HICP

Source: Thomson Datastream

Page 16: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

16

Irish bond spreads narrow as public finances Irish bond spreads narrow as public finances stabilisestabilise

Tough government decisions stabilise the budget deficit – big spending cuts and tax hikes

Deficit of 11.7% of GDP in 2010, falling to 3% by 2014 as economy recovers

Ireland still has one of lowest debt ratios in EU: 51% at end 2009 - allowing for cash balances

Authorities running large cash balances: €27 billion at end Q1- compares to €18.7bn budget deficit target for 2010

Over €10bn of the €20bn 2010 government bond funding programme done in Q1

Very little gov. debt maturing until late 2011

Low public debt gives the State the capacity to support the banking sector

€7 billion recapitalisation of AIB/BOI in 2009 came from National Pension Reserve Fund

NAMA taking property loans off banks

Sovereign Irish CDS and government bond spreads have narrowed sharply in past year

Gen Gov Debt (% GDP 2009)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FIN IRE SPN NL UK AT GER FR PT EU 16 BEL GR IT

Source : Eurostat ; AIB ERU

Irish 5 Yr Credit Default Swap

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

05-Jan 05-Mar 05-May 05-Jul 05-Sep 05-Nov 05-Jan 05-Mar

bps

Source; Thomson Datastream

Page 17: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

17

Irish data & forecasts (2006-2011)Irish data & forecasts (2006-2011)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (f) 2011 (f)

Real GDP 5.4 6.0 -3.0 -7.1 -2.0 2.5

Real GNP 6.3 4.4 -2.8 -11.3 -2.7 2.0

Consumer Spending 6.6 5.9 -1.0 -7.2 -3.0 2.0

Government Spending 5.8 6.9 2.6 -1.3 -3.0 -0.5

Fixed Investment 4.0 2.3 -15.5 -29.7 -24.0 -2.0

Of which: New Housing +2.8 -11.7 -34.2 -50.0 -62.0 -20.0

Exports 5.1 8.6 -1.0 -2.3 2.0 4.0

Imports 6.5 5.6 -2.1 -9.3 -1.5 2.5

CPI Inflation (%) 4.0 4.9 4.1 -4.5 -0.6 2.0

HICP Inflation (%) 2.7 2.8 3.1 -1.7 -1.0 1.0

Budget Deficit (% GDP) 3.0 +0.3 -7.2 -14.3 -11.7 -10.4

Employment Growth (%) 4.4 3.6 -1.1 -8.2 -4.2 0.0

Unemployment Rate (%) 4.4 4.6 6.3 11.8 13.6 13.6

Source: CSO, AIB ERU Forecasts

Page 18: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

18

Stronger performance from 2012Stronger performance from 2012 Open economy will continue to benefit

from globalisation, FDI

Large price and wage falls are helping economy to regain competitiveness

Exports to benefit from global recovery

Ireland has youngest population in EU

Housing output will need to rise from extremely low 2010/11 levels

Public infrastructure still at active stage of development

Scope for rebound in depressed consumer spending and business investment

Return to positive GDP from 2011

ESRI says Irish growth rates of 5.5% likely in medium term

AIB sees growth in 4-5% range from 2012

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1996 Census 2002 Census 2006 Census

Ireland Population Age Estimates

(Volume %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP 2.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 4.7

GNP 2.0 3.5 4.3 4.8 4.3

Consumer Expd 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0

Government Expd -0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

Fixed Investment -3.0 9.0 13.0 13.0 7.5

Exports 4.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 5.5

Imports 2.5 4.2 5.0 5.3 4.7

AIB ERU Medium Term Growth Forecasts

Source: CSO

Page 19: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

19

Asset Covered Securities - Ireland Asset Covered Securities - Ireland

Overview of legal framework

Page 20: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

20

Overview of ACS Framework - 1 Overview of ACS Framework - 1 Irish covered bonds, known as Asset Covered Securities or ACS, are issued under a legal framework, the ACS Act

2001, amended in 2007.   Asset Covered Securities can only be issued by a specialist bank – “Designated Mortgage Credit Institution” (DMCI) The Financial Regulator licenses DMCI’s only if the applicant -

is owned by a regulated bank is a separately capitalised standalone bank has non-executive board membership provides a detailed account of the business appoints a Cover Asset Monitor

Cover Asset Monitor (CAM)

Appointed with the approval of the Financial Regulator.

Monitors on-going compliance with the ACS Acts.

Pre-approve all additions/removals to and from the pool.

Reports to the Financial Regulator.

Regulatory Notices under the ACS Acts are issued by the Financial Regulator – provide detailed rules

Page 21: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

21

Overview of ACS Framework - 2Overview of ACS Framework - 2 Over-collateralisation:

ACS Act stipulates 3% minimum, Prospectus commitment is 5%

Loans valued at lower of loan balance and 75% of indexed property valuation (Prudent Market Value)

Substitution asset (cash) limited to 15% of bonds in issue

ALM rules restrict miss-matching:

Duration – weighted average duration of Assets must exceed duration of Securities

Interest – due from mortgage assets must exceed payments on bonds over any given 12 month period

Interest rate risk – NPV changes from 1% shifts in the yield curve must not exceed 10% of DMCI’s total own funds

Currency – Securities and Assets in Euro only, thus no FX risk

ACS bonds awarded RWA @ 10% (CRD and UCITS compliant)

Government Agency, NTMA, will perform role of Manager in event of parent’s insolvency

Irish issuers group – ACS Ireland – website - http://www.ibf.ie/acsireland.asp

Page 22: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

22

AlB Mortgage Bank AlB Mortgage Bank

Description

Position in the Irish Mortgage Market

Distribution & Sanction

Mortgage Pool / Eligibility

Collateral Usage & Over-Collateralisation

Property Valuations

Pool Arrears

Ratings

Page 23: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

23

AlB Mortgage Bank - Description AlB Mortgage Bank - Description

Bank License & Designated Mortgage Credit Institution (DMCI) status under ACS granted by Regulator – Feb ‘06

Public Unlimited Company, wholly owned by AIB plc*. Shareholders investment €920m, of which Tier (i) €620m Tier (ii) €300m

AIBMB’s assets - €21bn residential mortgage loans originated by AIB (ROI) – no commercial property mortgages or other business undertaken

Subject to prudential supervision by Financial Regulator as a bank and as a DMCI

Group Head of Finance chairs Board, supported by 8 Directors, including 3 non-executive directors

Origination and Servicing of loans outsourced to AIB (ROI) Division, via Outsourcing & Agency agreement

* In the event of failure, AIB plc is legally required to make good any deficit of AIBMB

Page 24: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

24

AlB Mortgage Bank - Position in the Irish Mortgage Market AlB Mortgage Bank - Position in the Irish Mortgage Market

The Irish market is dominated by amortising floating rate loans, Ireland has had very limited supply of ‘sub-prime’

style products, where AIBMB /AIB does not participate

Total Irish mortgage market drawn balances as at December 2009 were €147bn

AIB’s drawn balances represents an 18.45%* market share with primary focus on AIB’s customers

AIB has a presence in all major towns and cities via a network of 271 offices:

• 36% of the banked public have a primary account relationship with AIB• 80%+ of Mortgage Bank book is sourced from existing AIB account holders

* Includes broker originated loans not included in AIB Mortgage Bank

Page 25: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

25

AlB Mortgage Bank – Origination, Sanction, Services AlB Mortgage Bank – Origination, Sanction, Services

Mortgage origination through AIB’s extensive branch network with no sanctioning authority

Credit sanctioning undertaken centrally by dedicated team, with no sales targets or incentives

Mortgage processing and servicing undertaken by separate dedicated Home Mortgage Operations team (135 staff)

Impaired loans are passed to separate collection team under the Chief Credit Officer

Priority drivers to loan approval and grading- Repayment capacity is stressed, it is the key component, includes consideration of other financial

commitments- Income determination and confirmation via third party documents- Verification & sustainability of income is assessed- Determination of source of customer’s equity input - savings record, gifts from family, other assets held- Review Customer’s Credit History (Internal & External) - Internal Credit Grading - Behaviour Score -

Account Performance - External Credit Bureau - Track Record - Connected Accounts- Debt Service Ratio & LTV calculation made- All outside policy decisions are referred to senior lenders and reported to main Board on monthly basis

Once drawn, a loan is subjected to an automatic monthly credit grading process.

Page 26: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

26

AlB Mortgage Bank – Mortgage Pool (i) AlB Mortgage Bank – Mortgage Pool (i)

Selection of assets for inclusion in the Cover Asset Pool Committed to maintaining a high quality Cover Asset Pool

Selection depends on the eligibility of assets

Ineligible assets include:

- Loans which are in arrears for more than 1 month* or loans which are impaired (self-commitment)

- Properties under construction (legal requirement)

- Loans which have an unindexed LTV > 100% (self-commitment)

* The legal requirement in relation to arrears is that loans in arrears > 90 days are not permitted to be added to the Cover Asset Pool.

Current total arrears (all 0-30 days) in pool at March 2010 is 0.9%.

Historical Quarterly Data Sheets, Mar 08 to Mar 10, provided on website-

http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=AIB_Investor_Relations/Miscellaneous/

ir_article_printer&c=AIB_Article&cid=1256219261409&channel=IRHP

Page 27: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

27

AlB Mortgage Bank - Collateral Usage AlB Mortgage Bank - Collateral Usage

at end March 2010

Usage of Mortgage Assets as collateral

Cover Asset Pool €16.2bn

Central Bank Mortgage Backed Promissory Note Pool €1.9bn

Total collateral in use €18.1bn

Other loans €2.8bn

Total mortgage assets €20.9bn

Bonds Issued

Benchmarks (2) €2.7bn

Registered Private €0.1bn

Internal Contingent Liquidity €11.2bn*

* available to repo with market or with ECB

Total Bonds Issued €14.0bn

Covered Bond Over-CollateralisationNominal Balances Under ACS Act

Mortgage Loans €16.2bn €14.0bn

Substitution Asset (Cash) €3.3bn €2.1bn

Total Cover Pool €19.5bn €16.1bn

Bonds in Issue €14.0bn €14.0bn

Over – Collateralisation 39% 15%

Page 28: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

28

AIB Mortgage Bank – Property ValuationsAIB Mortgage Bank – Property Valuations

Property Valuations are:

Indexed to date on the quarterly publication of the ESRI/PTSB index

Index shows peak (Feb’07) to trough (Dec ’09) fall of 29.1% for non-Dublin and 35% for Dublin

Index is now at similar level to March 2003

Index considered to understate both the rise in valuations to 2007 and the subsequent fall

ACS Act provides protection for bond holders against falling property valuations

The Prudent Market Value (PMV) rule reduces the loan amount recognised as collateral for loans

with LTV over 75%

The PMV of a loan is the lower of the loan amount and 75% of the indexed valuation of the

property

The PMV of the loan is used in assessing ACS Act over-collateralisation requirements

Page 29: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

29

AlB Mortgage Bank - Pool Arrears AlB Mortgage Bank - Pool Arrears

Arrears Profile > 30 days

Arrears > 30 Days

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10

Covered Bond Pool

AIB Mortgage Bank

Page 30: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

30

AlB Mortgage Bank – Ratings AlB Mortgage Bank – Ratings Moody’s Covered Bonds Rating - AAA

• Over-Collateralisation – necessary to maintain current rating = 13.5% (1).

– Actual = 24% at March 2010 (1).

• Rating Criteria largely unchanged• Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. long term rating A1, short term rating P-1

S&P Covered Bonds Rating – AAA Credit Watch Negative• Over-Collateralisation – necessary to maintain current rating = (under review)

– Actual = 39% (2). at March 2010• New Rating Criteria introduced 16th December 2009• Remedial action (re counterparties- substitution asset (cash) and interest rate swaps) being taken following downgrade of

Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. to long term A- and short term A-2• Credit watch negative rating to be resolved for all S&P programmes by 16 th June

Fitch Covered Bonds Rating - AAA• Over-Collateralisation – necessary to maintain current rating = 27.9% (2).

– Actual 39% (2) at March 2010• Rating Criteria largely unchanged• Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. long term rating A-, short term rating F1

(1)Based on Prudent Market Value of Mortgage loans(2)Based on Ledger Balance of Mortgage loans

Page 31: AIB Mortgage Bank  Asset Covered Securities April 2010

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