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AIARD Conference

Colonel John ToolanDirector, U.S. Marine CorpsCommand & Staff College

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Mission Analysis

COA Dev #1

LOO LOOLOOLOO LOO LOO LOO

Program RefinementTroop to Task

COA Dev #2

OPT WARGAME

C-5 WARGAME

OPT OPT OPT OPT OPT

OPT OPT OPT OPT OPT

Integration and Refinement Prioritization and Sequencing

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Center Of Gravity

GOI LEGITIMACY

IN AL ANBAR

DESTABILIZATION

•Local / Provincial Governments

•Civil Services

•Functioning Judiciary

•Functioning Police Forces

•Functioning Local Economies

•Public Support

•Corrupt / Poor governments

•Lack of public services

•Crime

•AIF Kinetic Acts

•Tribal in-fighting

•Lack of Education

•Media

•Religion

•Local Population

•National

•NGOs

•Regional

•International

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Destabilization

Lack of P

ub. Svc

Tribal

Influ

ence

Establish

Rule of Law

Develo

p

Ownersh

ip

in G

OIReduce Coalition

Visibility/CAP

Improve Public

Services

Develop

Sustainable

Employment

Facilitate Education

Build Legitimate gov’t w/ inter-ethnic

representationSecure Borders

Deny Sanctuary

Impr

ove

QOL

Counter AIF

IO Messages

w/ Truth

Provide Social Safety Net

Isolate Pop. fm

Insurgents

Enemy Operational COG

Religion

Will

Indifference

Geography

Fear

Violence

Foreign Influence

Poverty

Lack of E

duc.

Anger & Shame

Coalition Kinetic ActRul

e of L

aw

Hopelessness

Corrupt/ Poor Govt

AIF IO Msg.

Cul

ture

.

Targetable tasks

Disrupting effects

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Campaign Objectives• Defeat AIF destabilization themes by strengthening Iraqi

public understanding of coalition and GOI efforts.

• Build & transition ISF to secure borders, promote rule of law & neutralize AIF.

• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions that provide essential services, education.

• Improve quality of life that promotes public confidence and ownership in GOI.

• Create long term sustainable employment by developing economic capacity.

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On Schedule:

Current Efforts Sufficient

Sensitive:

Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed

Critical: Immediate Assistance required

Al Anbar Campaign Objective Current

Assessment

Al Qaim- 200K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ CapacityRawah-25K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Al Rutbah-50K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

An Nukhayb- 5K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Habbaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Fallujah-200K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Ramadi-450K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Hit – 32K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

Haditha – 31K

Defeat AIF themes

ISF

Government

Improve QOL

Econ Capacity

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AR RUTBAH

AL QAIM

AR RAMADI

FALLUJAH

AL ASAD

BAGHDAD

Campaign Overview

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3

2

Priority of Effort:

•Governance

•Economics

•Security

1

Campaign Objectives• Strengthening Iraqi public understanding• Build & transition ISF• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions• Improve quality of life• Developing economic capacity

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Haditha – 31K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Hit – 32K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Ramadi-450K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Rawah-25K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Fallujah-200K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Al Rutbah-50K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Al Qaim- 200K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Habaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

An Nukhayb- 5K

Gen Health

Housing

Public Works

Food

Education

Security

Governance

Self Reliant:

Minimal to No Assistance Required

Sensitive:

Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed

Critical: Immediate Assistance required

Situation Template

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Jul 08-Jul 13Jul 06-Jul 08

C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap: Jul 2006 – Jul 2023

CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES

•strengthen Iraqi public understanding

•Build & transition ISF

•Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions

•Improve quality of life

•develop economic capacity

OP AR RAMADI

ECONOMIC PROGRAM

OP WERV

OP AR RUTBAH

ENDSTATE:

A sustainable environment

for Al Anbar’s

citizens and

resumption of full

government control by legitimate

Iraqi authority.

Jul 13-Jul 23

Elections

Legislation

Administration & ServicesTraining & Education

Elections Elections

Rule of Law

GovernanceProgram

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Jul 08-Jul 13Jul 06-Jul 08

C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap: Jul 2006 – Jul 2023

CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES

•strengthen Iraqi public understanding

•Build & transition ISF

•Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions

•Improve quality of life

•Develop economic capacity

OP AR RAMADI

ECONOMIC PROGRAM

GOVERNANCE PROGRAM

OP WERV

OP AR RUTBAH

ENDSTATE:

A sustainable environment

for Al Anbar’s

citizens and

resumption of full

government control by legitimate

Iraqi authority.

Jul 13-Jul 23

AgricultureUtilities and Infrastructure

Natural ResourcesHousing

Banking

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MOE’s- GDP per Capita

- Unemployment Rate

Method:

Objectives:1. Expand Agriculture to support Iraqi needs with eventual capacity to export, “Food basket of Iraq”. 2. Develop sector business, based on Al Anbar’s natural resources (sulfur, phosphate, oil, natural gas, cement factories).3. Establish local private banking, facilitating business and personal loan programs. Develop microfinance structure to support small business initiatives.4. Expand and upgrade critical infrastructure (PWR, H20, sewage, telecom, road, rail) & utilities for Gov’t (Police, ISF, Health Care, Judicial etc.)5. Expand & upgrade housing.

Narrative: Expand Al-Anbar’s agricultural capabilities IOT increase self sufficiency and reduce unemployment. Simultaneously expanding public service, banking and small business opportunities.

Supporting plans / Time line: See Timeline Slides 1& 2

PURPOSE:Increase

Economic capacity

in Al Anbar

ENDSTATE:Secure, Stable,Sustainable, Diversified,Economy capable of expanding under a stable central government

Campaign Objective 5: Create long term sustainable employment by developing economic capacity.

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Economic Capacity – 2yr Timeline

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Economic Capacity 15 year plan

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QUESTIONS?