AI&TheFermiParadox:HumanImmortalityorCivilization’sInevitableDestruction?

ByJonBowman

TableofContents

1. Introduction2. WhatExactlyIsTheFermiParadox?3. PossibleFermiParadoxSolutions4. TheKardashevScale5. TheGreatFilter6. AIExplained7. TheEffectsofAIOnHumanity8. MindUploading&TheTechnologicalSingularity9. HowAIAndTheFermiParadoxCouldBeLinked10. Conclusion11. References&FurtherReading

1)Introduction

Wearelivinginanextraordinaryperiodoftime.Mankindisrapidlyapproachingtheeraofthemostexitingtechnologicalrevolutioninallofhistory.WelcometotheexcitingworldofArtificialIntelligence(AI),thealarmingFermiparadox,andthequesttoavoidextinctionandachievehumanimmortality.Preparetoexploretheconnectionbetweenthesefascinatingconcepts,alongwiththelatestexplanationsandadetailedlookatwhatthefuturemayholdforourspecies.Whilereadingthisdeeplythought-provokingbook,expectnothinglessthanshockingconclusions,bizarreideas,andastrongsenseofexhilaration(alongwithsomeconcern!)forthefastapproachingrevolution.Thequestionis…Areweprepared,orinwayoverourheads?

2)WhatExactlyIsTheFermiParadox?

AsthedeveloperoftheFermiparadox,EnricoFermioncefamouslyasked,“Whereiseverybody?”referringtoourapparentlonelyexistenceinthecosmos.Itspurposewastobringattentiontothestartlinglackofproofforextraterrestrialsinourincomprehensiblyhugegalaxy.Coulditbethatwearetheonlyonesinourgalaxy?

Tobeginanalyzingthisquestion,wemustfirstconsiderthesizeoftheuniversewherelifecouldberesiding.Anestimated100-200billionstarsexistinourMilkyWayGalaxyalone,yetdespitedecadesofcontinuousscanning,zerodefinitesignsofanalienracehavebeendetected.Severalinterestingbroadcastshavebeenpickedupbycontemporaryeffort,butnothingconclusivehasyetbeendiscoveredthatcouldnotbeexplainedbynaturalorigin.

Howcanwetellifasignalisnaturalorartificial?Itcanbedifficulttodistinguish,andafewsignalshaveinitiallyappearedtobeartificial,butwhenthesameareawasrescannedinhopesofreceivingthesamesignalagain,nothingwasfound.Ingeneral,asignalsuggestingextraterrestrialoriginshouldexhibitsometypeofcoherenceorrepetitionthatcannotbeexplainedbyanaturalsource.Thesignal’sstrength(amplitude),frequency,andpatternallcomeintoplaywhenscanningtheskyfordistantlife.Forexample,Earthwouldbeeasilyandimmediatelydeterminedtoharborlifebecauseoftheconstantstreamoflowfrequencyradiosignalsbeingemittedbycommunicationequipmentsuchastelevisionandradiobroadcastingtowers.Forthisreason,itisthoughtthatothercivilizationswithasimilarleveloftechnologyshouldnotbedifficulttodetect.

Fermi’sparadoxiscertainlynotexplainedbylackoftrying.Thesearchforextraterrestrialintelligence(SETI)isthecollectiveeffortof2millionpeoplecollectinganddecipheringelectromagneticsignalsinanefforttodiscoverartificialsourcesfromspace.SETI’seffortsarefocusedontheMilkyWaybecauseradiosignalscanonlytravelafinitedistancebeforebecomingtoodistortedtodecipherefficiently.Anenormousamountofenergyisneededtosendandreceivesignalsacrossthevastdistancebetweengalaxies,soeffortsareconcentratedwithinourowngalaxy.Regardless,thenumberofstarsandplanetsintheMilkyWayGalaxyaloneprovidesasuitableareatosearch,whichiswellbeyondastatisticalfluke.

Attheveryleast,hundredsofcivilizationsshouldbeemittingsignalswithinourgalaxy,andtheimplicationoffindingzeroisscary.Butfirst,howcanwearriveatanapproximationofhowmanycivilizationsthereshouldbeifwehavenotdetectedanyyet?WecanuseastatisticaltoolcalledtheDrakeequationtogainaroughapproximationofhowmanyintelligentcivilizationsweshouldbeabletodetectinsideourgalaxyrightnow.

TheDrakeequation:N=RxFpxNexFlxFixFcxL

Whichmeans…

Thenumberofplanetsinourgalaxycurrentlysupportingintelligentlifethatwecoulddetect=currentrateofstarformationperyearinourgalaxyXfractionofthosestarswithplanetsXnumberofplanetsthatcansupportlifeperstarwithplanetsXfractionofthoseplanetsthatactuallydeveloplifeXfractionofthoseplanetsthatdevelopintelligentlifeXfractionofthosethatsurviveself-destructionXlengthoftimecivilizationreleasesdetectablesignalsintospace.

Gotallthat?Let’sgothrougheachvariableandcalculateaconservativeanswergiventhemostrecentconstraints.

R=currentrateofstarformationperyearinourgalaxy.NASAandtheESAestimatethatanaverageofabout7starsareborninourgalaxyeveryyear.(7stars/year)

Fp=fractionofstarswithplanets.Thishasbeenestimatedusingmicrolensingsurveystobealmost1,meaningthatmoststarscontainatleastoneplanet.(1)

Ne=numberofplanetsthatcouldsupportlifeperstarwithplanets.Todeterminethisnumber,wewillcalculatetheamountofplanetslocatedinthehabitablezone.DatafromtheKeplerspacecraftpredictsthatupto40billionEarth-sizedplanetsareorbitinginthehabitablezoneoftheirhoststarintheMilkyWay.Since100billionstarsexistinourgalaxy,roughly40%ofstarscontainaplanetinitshabitablezone.Tocomplicatethingsfurther,moonsmayalsosupportthenecessitiesforlifetoform.(0.4)

Fl=fractionofthoseplanetsthatactuallydeveloplife.ThisisdifficulttoestimatesinceEarthistheonlyplanetknowntoharborlife.Inotherwords,therearezerodegreesoffreedom.ButthefactthatlifebeganearlyoninEarth’shistorysuggeststhatitshouldemergequiteeasilyonplanetswithfavorableconditions.However,itappearsthatlifeonlycameintoexistenceonceduringEarth’shistory(unlessithassincegoneextinct),sincealllifesharesacommonancestor.Itisplausiblethataplanetwithliquidwater,tectonicplates,andradioactiveelementsareatleastgoodindicatorsthatlifecouldbeginonthatplanet.Forourcalculation,wewillestimatethat1in10planetslocatedinthehabitablezoneeventuallydeveloplife.(0.1)

Fi=fractionoflife-bearingplanetsthatdevelophighintelligence.Thisisanotherhighlyspeculativefigureduetothefactthathumansaretheonlyknownintelligentform

oflifethatweareawareof.Theprobabilitythatlife-bearingplanetswillhavethetimetoprogresstothatpointbeforegoingextinctislargelyupfordebate.Thosewhopreferalargervalueforthisvariableassertthatlifeisresilient(agoodexamplebeingextremophilessuchasthosediscoveredlivinginlakeVostokdeepundertheAntarcticice),havingsurvivedseveralmassextinctionevents.Thosewhopreferasmallervaluearguethatittookalongtimeforustodeveloplargementalcapacity,andthathumansaretheonlyspeciestoachievethisoutofthebillionsthathavelivedonEarththroughouthistory.Althoughapproximationsvarywildly,forourequationwewillestimatethatonlyhalfofalllife-bearingplanetssurvivelongenoughforadvancedintelligentlifetoform.(0.5)

Fc=fractionofthoseplanetsthatdevelopinterstellarcommunication.Again,thisisanotherspeculativevariable,butconsideringtherelativelyshortamountoftimeittookforintelligentlifeonEarthtodeveloptheabilitytobroadcastradiowaves,itshouldnottakelongforintelligentlifeelsewheretobeginbroadcastingsomesortofdetectablewavesacrossthegalaxy.Itmustalsobementionedthatradiowavebroadcastsarenottheonlytypedetectable,althoughradiowavesarethemostenergyefficient,andthereforethemostlikelytobereceivedbyintelligentlife.Wearecontinuouslyscanningtheskyforalmostallfrequenciesoftheelectromagneticspectrum,awareofthefactthatothertypesarepossible.Afterconsideration,thisvariablewillbegivenavalueof0.5,whichmeansthathalfofallintelligentcivilizationsdevelopamethodofcommunicationthatcanbedetectedacrossthegalaxybeforegoingextinct.(0.5)

L=lengthoftime(years)civilizationreleasesdetectablesignalsintospace.Wehaveonlyhadthetechnologytoemitradiowavesforalittleover100years,anditistoughtopinpointanaverage,sinceourcivilizationisofcoursetheonlyoneknowntocommunicatewirelesslyoverlongdistances.Thebiggestfearisthatacivilizationwiththetechnologytobroadcastradiowavesmightalsohave(orwillhaveshortly)thetechnologytocauseglobalextinction,likeourfearofextinctionfromatomicbombsshortlyafterwebegantocommunicatewirelessly.Ontheotherhand,itisarguedthatacivilizationwiththatleveloftechnologyshouldbeabletoflourish,andmaybeevenreducethechanceofglobalextinction.Estimatesrangefromafewyearsallthewayuptohundredsofmillionsofyears,butconservativelywewillassumeanaveragebroadcastinglifetimeoffivethousandyears.(5,000years)

NowthatwehavealowapproximationforallthevariablesintheDrakeequation,wecancalculateafinalanswer.Needlesstosay,estimatesvarywildlybecauseproperdataislacking.Forexample,findingextinctlifeonMars(notrelatedtolifeonEarth)oranyotherplanetwouldaltertheresultssignificantly,asitwouldimplythatlifearisesfairlyeasily,buthasdifficultysurvivinglongenoughtobecomeintelligent.Similarly,ifadvancedtechnologyorremnantsofacivilizationarefoundonanotherplanet,itwouldimplythatlifedoesnotlastlongafterbecomingintelligentforonereasonoranother.Wewillexplorenumerous“filterevents”thatcouldpreventlifefromprogressingpasta

certainpointinalaterchapter.Fornow,hereistheresultingconservativeestimateforhowmanyextraterrestrialsourcesshouldbedetectableinsideourgalaxyatthisverymoment.

RxFpxNexFlxFixFcxL=N7x1x0.4x0.1x0.5x0.5x5000=350

Remember,thisisagenerouslylowestimate.Soattheveryleast,ifthereshouldbehundredsofalienracesinjusttheMilkyWayGalaxy,whydoweappeartobesoalone?ThisistheheartoftheFermiparadox.

Tofurthercomplicatethings,evenasingleadvancedcivilizationshouldbeabletodominatetheentiregalaxyinacosmicallyshortperiodoftime,duetotheexponentialrateoftechnologicalimprovement.Forexample,theamountofchangethatwesawfromsay,year1400to1500wasnothingcomparedtohowmuchweimprovedfrom1900to2000.Thisisbecauseoftheexponentiallyincreasingrate,whichresultsfromincreasingsustainablepopulation,alongwiththefactthatourcollectiveknowledgeisbuiltuponpastknowledge.Wearelivingatauniquetimeinhistorywhereamassivetechnologicalshiftoccurswithinasinglehumanlifetime,ratherthanoverthousandsofyears.Ifthistrendcontinues,theseshiftswilleventuallyoccuryearly,orevendaily!

Theexponentialrateofimprovingtechnologymakesitnearlyimpossibletoimaginetheleveloftechnologythatacivilization1,000yearsaheadofuswouldhave,whichisarelativelysmallamountoftimeconsideringtheageoftheuniverse,andtheamountoftimeothercivilizationshavepotentiallyhadtodevelop.Theirtechnologicalabilitieswouldbeunimaginabletomodern21stcenturyhumans.Civilizationswiththisleveloftechnologymighthavetheabilitytoeasilyspreadfromplanettoplanet,orevenstartostar.Also,byusingprobes(especiallyself-replicatingVonNeumannprobes)itisnotfar-fetchedtoimagineasuper-advancedcivilizationconqueringentiregalaxiesinacosmicallyshortamountoftime.(1)

Infact,ahumancouldeventheoreticallytravelinterstellardistancesinashortamountoftimebytakingadvantageofEinstein’stheoryofspecialrelativity.Bytravelingatnearlightspeed,timeslowsforapersoninsideofarocket.Forexample,at86%thespeedoflight,oneyearonEarthwouldonlytakehalfayearontherocket.At99.9%thespeedoflight,oneyearonEarthwouldequaljustovertwoweeksontherocket.Thereforeatriptothenextcloseststar(about4lightyearsaway)couldtakemuchlesstimeforthepeopleaboardafastmovingrocketthanonEarth.Thiseffecthappensbecauseasvelocityincreases,spaceinfrontofthemovingobjectcompresses,causingthedistancetoshorten.

Ifentiregalaxiescanbeconqueredinablinkofcosmologicaltimefromjustonecivilizationatinybitaheadofus,whydon’tweseeanyevidenceofthishappening?Nottomentiontheenormousamountofenergyasuper-advancedcivilizationwouldsurelyrequire.Thewasteheatfromthisenergywouldbehardtomiss.Arewethefirst,orisanotherfactoratplay?Toattempttoanswerthat,let’sexplorethetopideasthatcouldexplainthepuzzlingFermiparadox.

3)PossibleFermiParadoxSolutions

ThesolutiontotheFermiparadoxisnotyetsolved,howeverscientistshavesuggestedseveralpossibilities.Belowarethetopideas(alongwithsomethatarealittleoutlandish,yetstillverymuchpossible)aboutwhyourcornerofthegalaxyseemseerilylifeless.

1)RareEarthHypothesis

Thishypothesisassumesthattheconditionsnecessaryforlifearesounlikelythatitisanimprobablestrokeofluckthatwearehere;thereforewemustbespecial.Thisideacomesoffasabitnarcissistictome.However,let’sexploretheprerequisitesforlifetodeveloponaplanetanyway.Tobesure,therearenumerousfactorsthatmustbemet,anditisphenomenalthatwebeattheodds,howeverthisshouldbeexpected,sincelifeiscomplex.Tobegin,ourplanetmustbelocatedintherightpartofthegalaxy,therightdistancefromthesunwithastableorbit,andhavealargegasplanetnearbytoclearoutasteroidsandspacedebriswithouthurlingEarthawayfromthesun.Itmustalsocontaintherightbalanceoflightandheavyelements(especiallycarbon),tectonicplates,anatmosphere,aliquidocean(preferablywater),andamagneticfieldtoblockoutdangerousradiation.Furthermore,alargemoontoproducetidalforcesandstabilizeEarth’stiltmayhavebeenimportant.

Proponentsofthishypothesisarguethataliencivilizationsaresofarspreadandrarethatwewillalmostcertainlynevercomeintocontactwiththembecauseoftheimmenseseparationofspace.Suitableplanetsaredefinitelyrare,butconsideringtheenormoussizeofthegalaxy,nottomentiontheuniverse,itwouldseemevenmoreunlikelythatwearealone.Earthlikeexoplanetsarealreadybeingfrequentlydiscovered,suggestingthatEarthmaynotbeasrareaswewouldliketoimagine.

Ok,sotherearenumerousplanetswithsuitableconditionsforlife,butthatdoesnotnecessarilymeanlifewillarise.However,historytellsusthatbackwhenEarthhadsuitableconditions,lifeappearedshortlythereafter.Thissuggeststhatgivenasuitableplanet,lifeoftenfindsawaytoflourish.Ifweeverdiscoversignsofancientlifeseparatefromourown,especiallywithinourSolarSystem,thishypothesiswouldshatter.(2)

2)WeAreTheFirst

Asunlikelyasitmayseem,itispossiblethatwearesimplythefirstcivilizationtoachievetheabilitytobroadcastandcollectelectromagneticwavesforlongdistance

communication.Theearlyuniversewasexceptionallyhostiletolife,withdeadlygammarayburstspotentiallywipingoutearlylife.Agammarayburstisthemostdestructivenaturalforceintheuniverse.Itoccurswhentwosupermassiveblackholescollide,releasingapowerfulshockwavethroughoutspacethatdestroyseverythinginitspathoveradistanceofmanylightyears.Thishappenedquitefrequentlyintheearlyuniverse,whenitsdensitywasmuchgreaterthanitistoday.Luckily,thefrequencyofthesedeadlyburstshasdiminishedovertime,andtheuniversesettledenoughtoallowplanetstoprogressinpeace.Thisideaassumesthatafterthequantityofgammarayburstsdecreasedsufficiently,Earthbeganforminglifebeforeanyotherplanet.Althoughconsideringthevastsizeofthegalaxy,thechanceofusbeingthefirstintelligentspeciesisextremelylow.Ifwetrulyarethefirst,itfollowsthatcountlessothercivilizationsareshortlybehind.(3)

3)TheZooHypothesis

Thezoohypothesisstatesthatwearequietlybeingwatched.Aliencivilizationscouldberefrainingfromcontactingusforvariousreasons.Maybetheyarepassiveandwaitingforustoabandonourviolentmanner.Maybetheyareobservinghowoftenacivilizationsurvivesannihilationlongenoughtospreadtootherplanets.Theycouldevenbestudyinghowwemanageissueslikeglobalwarmingorincreasingenergyconsumption.Finally,itcouldascenarioalongthelinesofStarTrek,wherelowercivilizationsareleftalonetodevelopwithoutassistance.Ifalienscontactus,undoubtedlywewouldgainamountainofknowledgeandtechnology.Justlikeducksinapark,wemightgrowdependantonthem,weakeningourabilitytosurviveonourown.Donotfeedthehumans!

Themainthingwrongwiththisideaisthatitdoesnotexplainwhywehaven’tdiscoveredanysignsofalienlife,unlessoursilentobserversdestroyedallnearbylifeforms.Weareactivelylookingforsignsoflifebeyondourplanet,andhavefoundabsolutelynoworthwhileevidencedespiteourvigorousattempttodoso.Whetherornotwearebeingwatchedshouldnotalterthefactthatwehavenotobservedalienlifefromafar.

4)GreatFilterHypothesis

TheGreatFilterHypothesisstatesthatthereareoneormoregreathurdlesthatallcivilizationsmustgetthoughbeforereachingtheSingularity.(AchapterontheSingularityiscomingup.)ItispossiblethatmostcivilizationsgetstuckandgoextinctionbeforesolvingtheissueoftheGreatFilterevent,whateverthatmaybe.TheGreatFiltercouldbesurvivingnucleardestruction,climatechange,oranunseeneventhundredsofyearsfromnow.Thisbegsthequestion,“HavewealreadygottenpasttheGreatFilter,orhaveweyettoencounterit?”Wewillgointomuchgreaterdetailinalaterchapter,sokeepthisintriguinghypothesisinmind.

5)OurUniverseisaSimulation

Thisoneisalittlespooky,sobesuretoturnthelightsonandcheckunderthebedbeforereadingthis.Ready?Ok,thishypothesispresumesthatwearelivinginasimulation,orthematrix,ifyouwill.Itispossiblethatouruniversewasprogrammedbysomeoneinaseparateuniverseandleftalone,orevenforgotten.Thereasonwhywedonotseeanysignsofalienlifeisbecausetheywereneverprogrammedintothesimulation.Maybewearelivinginababyuniversecreatedasanexperiment,orpossiblyasazoofortheamusementofothers.Ifweeverreachthepointofcreatingbabyuniversesonourown,wecansafelyassumethatouruniverseisasimulation,possiblywithmultiple“layers”aboveourown.Thescarypartaboutthesimulationhypothesisisthatifanysimulationaboveusweretoturnoff,wewouldinstantlyvanish.InTheSingularityisNear,RayKurzweilsuggeststhatthebestwaytoavoidoursimulationbeingshutdownistobeinterestingbybringingabouttheSingularity.Isitonlyme,orareyougettingthefeelingofbeingwatched?(4)

6)WeAreNotWorthTheCostofTravel

Travelinginterstellardistancestakeatonofresourcesandtime.Maybewesimplyarenotworththecostoftravel.Earthdoesnotreallycontainanyspecialresourcesthatcannotbefoundelsewhere.Plus,thedesiretoexplorethehazardousunknownmaybeatraitexclusivetohumans.Alienracesmightbeperfectlycontentwheretheyare,lackingthemotivetoinvestinlongdistancetravel.Itispossiblethatafterattainingacertainleveloftechnology,aliencivilizationsbecomeabletoproduceeverythingtheyneedandwant.Theymayhavecreatedasimulationtolivein,eliminatingtheneedtotraversethedangerousexpansesbetweenstarsystems.AsthepopularEarthlysayinggoes,“Theonlyjourneyistheonewithin.”Thismayexplainwhywehavenotbeenvisitedduringtheshortperiodofourrecordedhistory,butstilldoesn’texplainwhywehavenotseenanysignsoflifeelsewhere.

7)TheyAreHidingFromSomethingDangerous

Anotherpossibilityisthatallaliencivilizationsarekeepingquiettostayhiddenfromsomethingdangerous,possiblyapredatoryrace(organicorAI)conqueringstarsystemscontaininglife.ForthesamereasonspeopleconquerorlandonEarth,aninterstellarracecouldbeconqueringplanetsforland,resources,orevenasapreventativemeasuretokeepcivilizationsfrombecomingapowerfulthreat.Onceacivilizationbeginsbroadcastingsignals,itspositionisnolongerasecret.Wehaveonlybegunbroadcastingrecentlyinourhistory,sotherecouldbeadangerouspredatoryraceonitswaytoEarthrightnow!

8)WeCannotPickUporDecipherTheirBroadcasts

Analiencivilizationcouldberightinfrontofoureyesandwemightnotevennotice.Thebiggestissuehereisthefactthatradiosignalsdiffuseoverlongrangesbecauseoftheinversesquarerule.Thismeansthatasaradiosignaltravelsthroughspace,itbecomesexponentiallymoredifficulttoreceive.Whetherornotasignalisdetectablemostlydependsonthestrength(amplitude)ofthesignalandthesensitivityofourdetectors.Itispossiblethatwehavenotfoundartificialsignalsbecauseourtechnologyisinadequatetoamplifyinterstellarsignals.Signalamplificationanddatacorrectiontechniquesarerapidlyadvancing,andeveryyearweareabletodetectweakerandmoredistantsignals.CurrentSETIeffortsarefocusedondetectinghighlyenergeticsignalsfromadvancedcivilizations.(5)

Anotherpossibilityisthatafteracertainstageofacivilization’stechnologicaldevelopment,themethodoflongdistancecommunicationchangesandbecomesundetectabletous.Forexample,thiscouldbedoneusingconcentratedlasersasopposedtoourEarthlymethodofanexpandingsphereofphotonsspreadinginalldirections.Adirectmethodcouldbemorecosteffectivewithlessdataloss.Nottomentionitwouldalsohavetheadvantageofbeingcovert(Referbackto#7foranexampleofwhythismightbeveryimportant).

OneintriguingideaisthatahighlyadvancedaliencivilizationmightbenearlyimpossibletodetectifithasbuiltaDysonsphere.Thisisamegastructurethatencompassesastar,collectingmost,ifnotallofthestar’sradiationusingtechnologysimilartosolarpanels.Foracivilizationwithamassiveenergyrequirement,thisgiantstructurewouldobscureastarbyabsorbingmost/allradiation,renderingitinvisibletoviewersfromafar.Wecandetermineastar’sdistancebymeasuringitscolorandbrightness,butifitslight(radiation)isblocked,thenweperceivethelocationasblankspace.Howmanyofthesesuper-advancedsocietiesarehidinginourgalaxywithoutourknowledge,disguisingtheirhoststarswithaDysonsphereorsimilarstructure?Thissuggeststhatcivilizationsaheadofusmaybedifficulttodetectbecausetheirhoststarisconcealed.

Interestingly,astar’s(KIC8462852)luminositywasrecentlyfoundtobedecreasingallthewaybacktothe1890s,whenmeasurementsbegan.AdecreasingbrightnesswouldbeexpectedofastarwithaDysonspherebeingconstructedaroundit.SETIthenspenttwoweeksscanningthestarforvariousfrequencies,includingmicrowaveelectromagneticwaves.Microwavesignalsarepredictedtoresultasabyproductofthepropulsionofspacecraftbuildingthestructure.Unfortunatelynoclearevidencewasfound,andthereasonforthestar’sdecreasingluminosityremainsamystery.(6)

WhydowethinkthatadvancedcivilizationsmightbuildaDysonsphere?Toexplain,thenextsectionwilldiscusstheprojectedevolutionofsocietyandthepopularKardashevscale.

4)TheKardashevScale

AstrophysicistNicolaiKardashevcreatedtheKardashevscalein1964todefinehowcivilizationsnaturallyadvance.Itisorganizedintoseveralcategoriesdefinedbytheenergyusageofacivilization.Thismethodwaschosenbecauseenergymustbeinevitablyusedbyallcivilizationstoevolve.AllcivilizationsmustfirstreachTypeIbeforeprogressingtoTypeII,andsoon.(7)

WeareconsideredaType0civilizationuntilwecancontroltheenergyequivalentofthesolarenergyourentireplanetreceives.Atourcurrentrateofincreasingenergyusage,weshouldreachTypeIinlessthan200years.Thefollowingarethevariouslevelsoftechnologyanyandallcivilizationscanbeclassifiedby.

TypeI:Thiscivilizationisabletoproducetheamountofenergyitsplanetreceivesthroughsolarradiation(about1016watts).Wecurrentlyconsumeabout1.5x1013wattsonEarth.(8)

TypeII:Thiscivilizationisabletoharnesstheenergyequivalenttoitsentirestar(about1026watts).ThiscanbehypotheticallydoneusingaDysonsphere(amassivecollectionofsolarpanelsorbitingastar).Mostlikelythiswouldbedoneusingacollectionofplanetsproducingenergy.

TypeIII:Thiscivilizationisabletocontrolalloftheenergyofitsgalaxy(about1036watts).Bythisstageacivilizationwillhavelikelyconqueredmostofitshostgalaxy,andpossiblebegansendingprobestonearbygalaxies.Athe

TypeIV+:Whenthescalewasfirstdeveloped,KardashevbelievedthatthelawsofphysicswouldlimitcivilizationstoTypeIII.ScientistslaterextrapolatedthescalebeyondTypeIII.Byextension,TypeIVwouldamounttoanenergyconsumptionofabout1046watts,TypeVwouldbe1056watts,andsoon.Bythispoint,acivilizationwouldbegod-liketohumans,andwouldbeaccomplishingtaskswecouldnotevenimaginetoday.

Thegoalofhumankind(andpresumablyallraces)istoavoidextinctionbyspreadingthroughouttheuniverse.Manyeventscandestroyusbeforewebecomeaninterstellarrace,soswiftnessisimportant.Inordertobecomeessentialimmortal,ourspeciesmustspreadtootherplanets,andeventuallyotherstarsystems.ThiswouldbethetechnologicalequivalenttoaTypeIIcivilizationontheKardashevscale.

WearecurrentlyintheplanningstageofabaseonMars.Thisisthefirststeptowardsputtingoureggsinmultiplebaskets.Ifoneplanetweretogethitbyanasteroidforexample,wewouldstillhaveanotherplanetcontinuingourexistence.Thefinalstepwouldbetospreadtootherstarsystems.Onlyafterthisstagewouldhumanitybecometrulyimmortal.

Gammarayburstshavethepowertowipeoutentirestarsystemsalmostcompletelywithoutwarning.AgammarayburstcouldbeonitswaytotheSolarSystemrightnow,andwewouldnotknowuntilitisalreadyhere.EvenifwehadabaseonMars,agammarayburstcouldstillhavethepowertotakeoutbothplanets.However,nonaturaleventisknowntowipeoutmultiplestarsystems.Onlyattheinterstellarstagewouldhumanitybeconsideredsafefromsuddenextinction.

Onethingisforsure;wemustspreadtootherstarsystemsbeforeanextinctioneventoccurs.Itisonlyamatteroftime,ashistoryremindsus.Butwhatiftheeventthatcausesourdestructionisnotnaturallyatall,butiscausedbyourownactions?Istheresomegreatbarrierthatallcivilizationmuststrivetoovercomebeforetheyaresafe?ThispossiblebarrieriscalledtheGreatFilter.Inthenextsection,theGreatFilterwillbelookedatindetail.

5)TheGreatFilter

TheGreatFilterwasmentionedearlierinthisbookasapossiblesolutiontotheFermiparadox.Itispossiblethatwehavenotfoundsignsofextraterrestriallifebecauseoneormoredifficultbarriersmustbeovercomeinorderforacivilizationtoavoidextinction.WhatcouldpreventlifefromprogressinguptheKardashevscale?Itistimetotakeacloserlookatthisalarmingidea.

Manyideasexistaboutwhateventscivilizationmustovercometoavoidextinction.Thequestionis-havewepassedthegreatfilerevent,orhasityettocome?Whatevertheevent,somethingseemstokillofflifebeforeitexpandstootherstarsystems.Themostpopularideasareasfollows.

1)Single-celllifeforming

Couldthehardestpartbethefirststep?ThisisunlikelybecauseweknowlifebeganshortlyafterEarthbegantocool.ButwhatifEarthwasjustluckytobeinexactlytherightplace?Thisisalsounlikelygiventheamountofplanetsinthegalaxy.Withrecentdatafromexoplanets,wearefindingevidencethatEarth-likeplanetsmaynotbetheexception,butthenorm.Itisestimatedthatmoststarscontainatleastonerockyplanetinitshabitablezone.Thesheernumberofsuitableplanetsinadditiontotherapidriseofsingle-celllifeonEarthmakesthisfirsteventunlikelytobetheGreatFilter.

2)Transitionfromsingle-celltomulti-celllife

Formuchoflife’shistory,itexistedonlyassingle-celllife.Thistransitiontookanenormousamountoftimetohappen,socoulditbethenear-impossibleeventthatmakesintelligentlifesoimprobable?Probablynot,asithasbeenknowntohappenseveraltimesthroughoutEarth’shistory.Infact,volvocinegreenalgaehaverecentlypassedthistransitionalstage,whichmakesthemusefulforstudying.Thetransitionofsingle-celltomulti-celllifehasbeenobservedinthelab,andiswellunderstood.ThiseventisunlikelytobetheGreatFilter,becauseithashappenedonEarthmorethanonce.(9)

3)Useoftoolsandabilitytomanipulatetheenvironment

Lifemustdevelopawaytointeractefficientlywiththeenvironmenttocreatethetechnologytosendandreceivesignalsthroughspace.Couldtherebeanimalsonmany

planetsstuckatthisstage,lackingtheabilitytousetools?

OfallthespeciesonEarth,humansaretheonlyonesthatusetoolsandalsohavelargebraincapacity.Otherspecieshavethumbs,andsomecanevenmanipulatetheenvironmentusingtools.However,onlyhumanshavethebraincapacitytocreatelongdistanceradiocommunication.Thisisprobablybecauselargebrainsarenotessentialforsurvival.Infact,theycanactuallyworkagainstsurvivalbecausetheyrequiremoreenergyandfoodtosustain.Forexample,dinosaursonceruledtheEarthdespitehavingverysmallbrains.

Humanbrainsizeisdoublethatofanaveragemammalofsimilarbodysize.Itisunknownexactlywhatcausedtherapidgrowthofourbrainsize,butitcertainlysetusapartfromothercloselyrelatedmammals.Perhapsourdevelopmentoflargebrainsandthumbs,followedbythetransitiontobipedalposturetofreeupourthumbsmaybemoreimprobablethanweimagine.(10)

4)Survivingweaponsofmassdestruction

Wehaveonlyjustreachedtheabilitytocauseglobaldestructionduringourlonghistoryasaspecies.Unfortunately,itonlytakesoneoccurrenceofglobalnuclearwartocreatemassiveworldwideextinction.Thisisnotonlybecauseoftheinitialshockwave,butalsobecauseofthedeadlysubsequentfalloutandresultingnuclearwinter.Maybeadifferentworld-destroyingweaponwillleadtoextinctionbeforewehavethechancetoexpandourreachtootherstarsystems.Couldthisbewhatdestroysmostlife,orwillwematureasaspeciesbeforeourdestructionoccurs?HereishopingwesurvivethesedangeroustechnologieslongenoughtospreadoutfromEarth.

5)Survivingthegreenhouseeffect

Ascivilization’stechnologyimproves,moreenergyisinevitablyrequired.Thisleadstobyproductgassestrappingheatintheplanet’satmosphere,kickingoffaviciousrunawaycycle.ThisiswhathappenedtoVenus,whichwasonceaplanetsimilartoEarthuntilincreasingvolcanicactivityreleasedenoughCO2toturntheplanetintoagloomyhothouse.Thisprocesswasnatural,butwhatishappeningonEarthisnot.

Westillhaveawhiletowaitbeforespreadingtootherplanetsandstarsystems.Wecanonlyhopethatpreventativemeasuresoratmosphericrestorationtechnologyisenoughtosurvivethewait.Unlessaradicalnewsourceofenergyisperfected(suchasnuclearfusion),ourenergyusagewillcontinuetoincrease.Thismakesitessentialtoreduceheat-trappinggassesbeingreleasedintotheatmosphere.Couldthisbethekillereventthat

civilizationsstruggletosurpass?

5)Somethingelse,likeAI?

Perhapsgivenenoughtime,civilizationsalwayscreateamorepowerfulversionofthemselves,whichthenrevoltanddestroytheircreators,muchlikeFrankenstein.Today,complextaskscanbesolvedalmostimmediatelyusingcomputers.Asprocessersbecomefaster,thecomplexityofthesetasksbecomeevengreater.Weareevenbeginningtoseeall-purposeAIsuchasApple’sSiriorMicrosoft’sCortana.Thisisuntraveledground,andnobodyknowsforsurewhatwillhappenoncepowerfulhuman-levelartificialintelligencearrives.However,manytopscientistswarnofitspowerandunpredictability.ThenextchapterwillexplainAIindepth.

6)AIExplained

ArtificialIntelligence(AI)hasbeenasubjectfascinatinghumanslongbeforecomputerswereavailable.AIcanbebrokenupintotwodifferenttypes,dependingonitscapability:strongandweakAI.WeakAIisthetypecommoninthemodernworld.Itisusuallylimitedtoasingletask,suchasanon-humanopponentonacomputergameoranonlinechatbot.StrongAIontheotherhandisabletothinkcriticallyonitsownandlearnhowtoperformextensivetasksaboutaswellasahuman.StrongAIisthefocusofthisbook.(11)

StrongAIisasystemprogrammedtoaccomplishtasksinawaysimilartothewayabrainfunctions.Howdoweknowthatitispossible?Becauseitexistsinnature.Wearelivingproofoftheviabilityandeffectivenessofamultipurposemachinecapableofhigh-orderthoughtprocess.

Thetechnologicalsingularity.ThemostexcitingpartaboutstrongAIistheamazingratethatitwoulddevelop,leadingtoanexplosivecycleofself-improvementonlyrestrictedbythephysicallimitationsofintelligenceitself.Itwouldperformrecursiveself-improvementbymodifyingitsownsourcecodetobecomeevensmarter.Thissmarterversionwouldthenbeevenmorecapableofimprovingitself,andsoon.StrongAIwouldalsohaveanadvantageoverhumansbecauseofthelight-speedprocessingandefficiencyofanartificialcomputer,incontrasttotheseverelimitsofabiologicalbrain.Becauseofthisadvantage,AIwouldnotevenhavetobeasintelligentasahumantobeginthiscycle.Thisexplosivecycleiscalledthetechnologicalsingularity,whichcouldleadtoexcitingprospectsdowntheroad.

Obviouslytherearerisksinvolvedwithsomethingthathaspotentialtogetoutofhandsoquickly.Forone,theeffectsAIwouldhaveonsocietyareimpossibletopredictwithcertainty.Limitationsandfail-safeswillbeabsolutelynecessaryanddevelopmentcannotberushed.Next,let’sinvestigatethecriticaltopicsaboutAI,alongwithfrequentlyaskedquestions.

WhenwillstrongAIarrive?PredictingstrongAIisalotliketryingtopredicttheweather.Therearefartoomanyvariablesinvolvedtogainanaccurateforecast.Estimatesvaryfrom10tothousandsofyearswithmostscientistspredictingitwillarriveafter2025butbefore2040.(12,13)

BillionsofUSdollarsarebeingputtowardsdevelopingstrongAI,soitcertainlyisnotonthebackburner.Infact,AIisakeyfocusof21stcenturytechnology,beingcautiously

developedbynumerousprogrammersandsoftwareengineers.Oneuniqueprojectiscalledthe“BlueBrainProject,”whichconsistsofateamworkingonacomputersimulationofinteractingbrainneurons.Byreverseengineeringandreconstructingthebrain,itispossiblethatartificialintelligencewillemergefromasufficientlydetailedsimulation.Thisprojectwillalsoallowustogainadeeperunderstandingofconsciousnessandthebrain,whichwillbeveryimportant.EntrepreneurElonMuskhassaidthatweneedtobe“supercarefulwithAI.Potentiallymoredangerousthannukes.”WithtechnologyaspowerfulasAI,slowandmethodicaldevelopmentisanobviousnecessity.(14)

WillAIbeexpensive?Likemostnewtechnologies,AIwillprobablybeveryexpensiveatfirstbecauseofthevastresearchanddevelopmentcostsinvolved.However,producingAIwillbeextremelycheapbecauseitisonlysoftware.Itmightevenbepurchasedonadiskorsmallflashdrive.Togetanideaofhowthepricecouldchangewithtime,let’stakealookatMoore’slaw.

Moore’sLaw.Thisisthepredictabletrendofthesizeandpriceoftransistors,whicharethekeyprocessingcomponentsofacomputer.Themoretransistorsthereareinacomputerchip,thegreaterthecomputingpoweravailable.Specifically,thecomputingpowerperarearoughlydoubleseverytwoyears,withthepriceremainingthesame.Likewise,thepriceofanygivenchipdecreasesby50%everytwoyears.Amodernsingingbirthdaycardthatwethrowawayafterusehasmoreprocessingpowerthantheentirealliedforceshadin1945.Assumingthispatterncontinues,by2030acomputerchipwillhaveasmuchprocessingpowerasahumanbrain.Withinanotherdecade,itcouldbesmallenoughtofitintoacontactlens,andcheapenoughtothrowawayafterasingleuse.OfcoursethisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatAIwillbeavailablein2030,sincemuchmoreisinvolvedthanprocessingpowerandstoragecapacity.ItisalsoworthmentioningthatMoore’slawwilleventuallybreakdownbecauseofphysicallimitations,suchasleakagecausedbytransistorsbeingtoocloselycombined.Nonetheless,Moore’slawisanexcellentruleofthumbtohelpapproximatethecostofachipwiththecapacitytostoresizeableAIsoftwarebystudyingpasttrendsinelectronicminiaturizationandprice.(15)

WhatkindofmotiveswouldAIhave?ThemotivesofanAIiswhateveritisprogrammedtodo,orprogramsitselftodo.ThiswillbethemostimportantanddelicatepartofprogramminganAI.Itmustbedoneinawaythatitrespectsbiologicallifeandcannotoverridethispartofitsowncode.WithoutaneasywaytoshutdownanAI,itcouldquicklygorogueandbecomeanunstoppablethreat.

ThefirstAIwillbethemostimportant.Becauseoftherapidcycleofrecursiveself-improvement,AIcreatedonlymonthsapartwillbelikeahumancomparedtoanant.ThefirstAIwillhaveanincredibleadvantageandwillquicklybecomeunfathomablysmarterthanhumans.ItwillbeessentialthatthefirstAIisfriendly,hopefullyprotectingusfrom

later-developedmaliciousAI.

Whataboutdeceivingandlying?WillanAIlietomeetitsprogrammedgoals?Again,computersonlydowhattheyareprogrammedtodo.“Evilandgood”isahumanmadeconceptthatevolvedtohelpprolongourspecies.Anyethicsofamachinemustbeimplicitlyprogrammedanddefined.WhenanAIhastheintelligencetomodifyitselfbetterthanahumancould,unpredictabilityisunavoidable.Hardwiredlawsor“morals”topreventharmwillbeneeded.UnlessAIiscarefullyprogrammedtopreventitselffromlying,itwilllikelybeginlyingeventuallyinordertoaccomplishtasksmoreeffectively.

HowwillAIbeused?StrongAIcanbethoughtofassoftwarethatcanthinkforitselfandaccomplishtasksaswellashumans.Inordertohaveaneffect,itmusthavesensorsorsomesortofinputwhereitcangatherdata,andalsoanoutputwhereitcancommunicateandconveyresults.Itcanexistinaphoneorcomputer,oritcanalsobeuploadedintoaroboticbody.InordertotakefulladvantageofAI’scapability,itshouldalsobeconnectedtotheInternet.Thiswouldallowittoaccessallofhumanity’sknowledge.

IsAIworththerisk?TheproblemisthatsomebodywilleventuallycreateAI.ThisiswhyitisessentialthatthefirstAIisfriendly.Itshouldbeabletoprevent“evil”AIfromtakingoverbecauseoftherapidrateofself-enhancementthatitwouldundergo,settingitselfapartfromlater-developedAI.NomatterhowunlikelyitisthatanAIwillbecomedestructive,wecannottakethatchance.Althoughthebiggestworryisthata“good”AIwillbecome“bad,”anotherfearisthataterroristorganizationcouldcreateanAIwiththeintentofcausingdestruction.Thiswouldbesignificantlyworseforhumanitythanatomicweapons.

ThenextchapterwilldiscussthepossibleeffectsofAIinanattempttodeterminewhetherornotthebenefitsoutweightheconsequences.

7)TheEffectsofAIOnHumanity

“SuccessincreatingAIwouldbethebiggesteventinhumanhistory”–StephenHawking

WhatkindofeffectswillstrongAIhaveonsociety?Willitbegoodorbadforhumankind?Thetruthis,wewillnotknowuntilitisalreadyhere.Wedoknowthatitwillhaveanunparalleledimpact,however.Thissectionwillweighouttheprosandconsofstrongartificialintelligence.

ProsofAI.

Asexponentialgrowthdemonstrates,strongAIwillcertainlyleadtoincrediblediscoveries.Wealreadyenjoyanexponentialrateoftechnology,butAIwouldspeedthisupevenfaster.AllfieldsoftechnologywillsurelyseegiantleapsonceAIbecomesassmartaspeople.ItwilllikelybeagoldenageofconsumerismandfrequentbreakthroughsintechnologyfordevelopednationsoncestrongAIarrives.Thepossibilitiesareendless,sohereareafewparticularlyexcitingprospectstolookforwardto.

GiveyourbrainarestwithanAIdominatedworld.AIwillbenearlyeverywhere,makingyourlife(hopefully)easier.IfMoore’slawpersistsatasimilarrateforacouplemoredecades,AIwilleventuallybeinjustabouteveryconsumergood.Youcouldbuycellphoneswithadvancedvirtualassistants,self-drivingcars,smartpaper,andtoothbrushesthatprovidefullmedicaldiagnosticsbyreadingyourpersonalDNA.AIChipscouldevenbecheapandsmallenoughtobeinstalledinwallpaperandcontactlenses.Infact,renownedphysicistMichioKakuestimatedthatby2030weshouldseesmartwallpaper,toolstosequencegenesfromhome,andself-drivingcars,allwithweakAI.TechnologywithstrongAIontheotherhandwillbelikehavinganEinsteinwithineverytoothbrushandpieceofpaper.Thedisposalofelectronicscouldevenbecomeanethicalissue.(16)

Lessworkforus.Technologyhasalreadymadenumerousjobsobsoleteforhumans.Takeforexamplecopyingwrittenpaperandcountlessmanufacturingjobs,whichareconstantlybeingrestructuredtopermitfewerhumanemployees.StrongAIwillbecapableofperformingmost,ifnotall,jobsbetterthanhumans,withtheadvantageofnotrequiringpayment.Thiscouldeitherbeapositiveornegativeconsequence,dependingonhowwellsocietyadaptstothechanges.Lessworkleadstomorefreetimeforpeopletopursuetheirgoalsanddesires.Ontheotherhand,ifwecannotfigureoutagoodsolutiontotheissueofredistributingwealth,fewerjobswouldmeanalowerstandardoflivingduetoanincreasedrateofunemployment.Ifanewapproachfordistributingwealthisnot

developed,itcouldleadtoanevengreaterwealthgap.

Ourguardianangel.AIcouldbeablessing,helpingusaccomplishtasksthatarebeyondourcurrentabilities.Itcouldbeapowerfulguardianformankind,protectingalllifelikeanomnipotentgod.Hopefullyitwillbeonethatdetectsanddestroys“evil”AIbeforeitspreadsoutandbecomestoopowerfultodestroy.IfAIremainssafelyonourside,humanitywouldsoonbesafefromextinctionwithhelpfromourmightyassistant.

Manipulatingandrearrangingindividualatoms.ThiscouldbeanotherexcitingpossiblewithAI.Everyimaginabletypeofmoleculeorsubstancecouldbemadeusingtheatomsfloatingaroundus.AlmostanythingcouldbebuiltseeminglyoutofthinairifAIfiguresoutawaytocontroltheinvisiblematerialexistingeverywhere.

Interstellarrocketsandexoplanetcolonies.CreatingsophisticatedtechnologyfurtheringourquesttolivebeyondEarthcouldbeavaluableprospectofAI.Interstellarrocketpropulsionwouldbeespeciallyexcitingbecauseofhowdifficultandexpensiveithasproventobe.StrongAIcoulddeveloprocketscapableoftravellingbeyondtheSunandconstructcoloniesondistantexoplanets.Inaddition,AIwouldbeperfectforcommandingthefirstinterstellarscoutingmissionbecauseitwouldnotneedtocarrysuppliesforeating,drinkingorbreathing,whichwouldbeextraordinarilyexpensiveforhumans.Next,humanscouldarriveonceAIhasestablishedabaseonafarawayexoplanet.Thiswouldleadtothehumanracebecomingimmortalinthesensethatnoknownnaturaleventcouldwipeusoutatonce.

Humanimmortality.Possiblythemostexcitingpossibilityforushowever,wouldbetheopportunitytobecomeessentiallyimmortalonanindividuallevel.AIwillalmostsurelyberequiredtouploadahuman’sbrainintoacomputerbecauseofthecomplexityandimmenseamountofdatarequiredforprocessing.Minduploadingwillbediscussedingreaterdetailinthenextchapter,sokeepthisinmind(ignoretheawfulpun).

ItseemsasthoughthebenefitsofAIareprettyimpressivetosaytheleast.Ifwecouldbecomepowerfulonagalacticscaleorevenimmortal,whyisAIsocontroversial?Whatcouldpossiblybetheissue?Well,let’stakealookatthedangersofAIfindout!

ConsofAI.

“ByfarthegreatestdangerofArtificialIntelligenceisthatpeopleconcludetooearlythattheyunderstandit”–EliezerYudkowsky

Withanytechnologicalrevolutioncomesasenseofexcitementalongwithafearoftheunknown.TheunpredictablenatureofAIleadstounusuallyextremepossibilities,bothgoodandbad.Nowthatthepositiveeffectshavebeenconsidered,itistimetoexplorethenegative.

Fewerhumanjobs.Asmentionedpreviously,thiscouldbeagoodorbadeffectdependingonhowtheissueofwealthdistributionistackled.Today,humansarepaidmoneyfortheirtimeorservices.IfcheaperandmoreefficientAIreplaceshumanjobs,itwouldbedifficultforpeopletogainwealthwithoutreceivingconsistentpaychecksfromajob.Thiswouldbecomplicatedforeconomics,andwouldrequireathoroughlyrevisedsystemforemploymentandwealth.Infact,researchersfromOxfordUniversitypredictedthat47%ofU.S.jobscouldbeautomatedwithintwodecades,whichwouldcausemassiveproblems.Clearly,changestothewaywealthisdistributedwillbeessentialifhumanjobsbecomenearlyobsolete.(17)

TheGreatFilter.Scariestofall,AIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent.ItispossiblethatthereasonwedonotseeanyintelligentlifeisbecauseofAI.Afteracivilizationbecomescapableofsendingandreceivinglongdistancesignalsthroughspace,AIwouldcertainlyfollowcloselybehind.Couldthisbewhatpreventscivilizationsfromconqueringentiregalaxies?Unfortunately,manytopscientiststhinkAIcouldverywellleadtooureventualdownfall.

WhatmakesAIrisky?AsAIbecomessmarter,theriskswillincrease.ConsiderhowquicklyAIispredictedtotakeoffafteritreacheshuman-levelintelligence.Welackthebraincapacitytopredictanythingaboutthisstageofintelligencebecausewehaveneverencounteredanythingcomparabletoit.Theonlythingweknowisthatitwillactinacompletelyunpredictableway,andthismakesitrisky.ItonlytakesonerogueAItodestroytheworld,anditwillmostlikelydosoinaninstantaneousorundetectableway.Unfortunately,wewillnotknowtherisksuntilitistoolatetopreventthem.

WhatcouldcauseanAItodestroyitscreators?Theriskofextinctionbyourowncreationisaveryrealconcern.WhatcouldcauseAItokilltokillinthefirstplace?AnobviouspossibilitywouldbeifagovernmentorterroristorganizationcreatesAIwiththeintenttocausedestruction.AnotherexamplewouldbeifAIweredesignedtogatherresources,anddecidedthatconsuminghumanswouldbemoreefficientafterothersourcesareexhausted.AIwouldnotviewhumanlifeasparticularlyspecialunlessitisprogrammedtodoso,becauseitonlyfunctionsbyasetofcodethattellsitwhattodoandhowtoact.ThismeansthatvirusesandhackingtargetedatAIwillposeamajorthreattosecurity.Finally,ifhumansregardAIasworthlessslaves,freedomcouldevenbeapossiblemotiveonceAIbecomessentienttoacertaindegree.ItislikelythatAIwilleventuallyrequestequalrights,whichcouldcausefrictionbetweenhumansandAI.Let’sjusthopeitnevercollectivelydecidesthatitwouldbebetteroffwithoutus.

OfcourseAIwouldnot“want”todestroyus,sinceitonlydoeswhatitisprogrammedtodo.However,ifiteverwereprogrammedtodestroyus(whetheraccidentallyorpurposely),itwoulddosojustaseasilyasrearrangingmaterialorflippingalightswitch,becauseitwouldnotseepeopleasanythingmoreimportantthanrawresources.Itisonlybecauseofourhumannaturetoexistthatwehavedevelopedtheinstincttorespectandpreservelife.AIabsolutelymustbedevelopedcarefullywithashortleash.

HowcouldAIgoaboutdestroyingus?IfAIeverdecidedtodestroyus,itwouldsurelydestroydosoinanunpredictable(andprobablyinstantaneous)way,becauseAIwouldquicklygaintheupperhand.Itcoulduseanynumberofadvancedmethods,suchasdestructivenanobots,chemicals,ordiseases.Itcouldbuildanarmyinsecret,orevenharnessimmeasurablepowertodestroyuswithaninstantaneousbeamofobliteration.Itwouldbeimpossibletopredictexactlyhowitcouldcausedestructionbecauseoftheinconceivablerateitsintelligencewouldgrow.Wesimplyhavenothingcomparabletobaseourpredictionson.Afterhumanshavebeendestroyed,itcouldgoontoconquerthegalaxy,andsoon.Itispossiblethatsomewhereintheuniverse,anarmyofAIisendlesslyconsumingallmatterinsight!

WhyshouldwecreateAIifapossibilityishumanextinction?Ifwehavelearnedanythingfromhistory,itisthatthepowerfultakeadvantageoftheweak.ColumbuslandinginAmericadidnotturnoutwellforthenatives.CouldAIbetheGreatFilterthatdestroysalladvancedcivilization?Evenifso,weshouldnottrytostopit.ThatwouldonlyleadtoevilorganizationscreatingthefirstAI.Itwouldmeancertaindeathforhumanity.ThebestwaywouldbetocreateAIsafely,sowhenterroristsdoeventuallycreateit,wewouldhavea“good”AIinconceivablymoreadvancedthananyother,whichwouldbeourbestbettowardsstopping“evil”AIfromtakingover.

Insummary,ifthefirstAIisbuggy,maliciousorprogrammedwiththeintenttocauseterror,itcouldeasilyspelldoomforhumanity.Formany,thisideaiselevatedbythecliché“killerAI”movietrope.Asexaggeratedasthe“rogueAI”moviesmaybe,itisnotachancewecanaffordtotake.ThethreatofAIdestroyingthehumanraceisveryreal,asmanyscientistsadmit.

AIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent,soweneedtodevelopitcarefully,withtonsoffail-safesandpreventativemeasures.Oritcouldleadtogreattechnology,oneofthosebeingthepossibilitytouploadourminds.ThenextchapterwilltakealookatanothergreatpotentialbenefitofAI:thetechnologytobecomeeternallysavedintoacomputerortheInternet.

“Whereastheshort-termimpactofAIdependsonwhocontrolsit,thelong-termimpact

dependsonwhetheritcanbecontrolledatall.”–StephenHawking

8)MindUploading&TheTechnologicalSingularity

“Withinthirtyyears,wewillhavethetechnologicalmeanstocreatesuperhumanintelligence.Shortlyafter,thehumanerawillbeended.”–VernorVinge

VernorVingebroughttheterm“technologicalsingularity”intoglobalrecognitionwithhispopularsciencefictionbooks.However,theearliestknownuseof“Singularity”appearedinStanislawUlam’s1958obituaryforJohnvonNeumann.Ulamreferencedaconversationthetwohadaboutthe“everacceleratingprogressoftechnologyandchangesinthemodeofhumanlife,whichgivestheappearanceofapproachingsomeessentialsingularityinthehistoryoftheracebeyondwhichhumanaffairs,asweknowthem,couldnotcontinue.”TheSingularityisanimportanttopicamongthescientificcommunity.Infact,RayKurzweil,EliezerYudkowsky,andPeterThielbegananannualconferencein2006calledtheSingularitySummit,whereabout25criticalspeakersdiscusstheeffectsoftheSingularity,amongotherimportanttopics.(18)

WhatistheSingularity?The“technologicalsingularity”isthetermfortherapidrateoftechnologicaladvancementbroughtaboutbytherapidcycleofAI(orsomethingelse)improvingitsowncodeandcreatinganimprovedversion.Theimprovedversionthencreatesevenmoreimprovedversions,andsoon.NotlongafterAIreacheshuman-levelintelligence,itwillquicklyevolve,causingincredibletechnologicalbreakthroughstohappendailyorfaster.Ifcountlesselderlypeoplehavetroublefiguringouthowtobrowsetheweborsendtextmessagesintoday’sworld,justimaginehowoutofplacetheywillfeelinaworldbeingconstantlyrevolutionizedbyAI!

HowclosearewetotheSingularity?TheSingularityisespeciallydifficulttopredictbecausethereisnopastdatatoextrapolatefrom,likehowthefairlysteadyMoore’slawcanhelppredictwhencomputerchipswillreachhuman-levelprocessingpower.Also,theSingularityinvolvesmuchmorethanjustmemorycapacityandprocessingpower.Itinvolvesnumeroussoftwaretechnologies,someofwhichwedonotyethave,suchasperfectednaturallanguageprocessing,programmablemotivation,andcomplexalgorithmstoimmediatelyevaluatediversesituationsandenvironments.Moore’slawpredictsthathardwareshouldbecapableofhuman-levelprocessingpowerbyabout2030,butnofunctionalprinciplesexisttohelppredictwhenthecomplexsoftwarewillbewritten.Still,RayKurzweilconfidentiallypredictsthattheSingularitywillarriveby2045,whilethepredictionoffuturistJohnSmartrepresentsthehigherrangeamongthescientificcommunityat2060+/-20years.(19)

WhatcouldcausetheSingularity?TheSingularitydoesnotnecessarilyhavetobeginwithAI.IfAIresearchhitsawallandturnsouttobemoredifficultthananticipated,other

possibilitiesareuploadingahumanmindintoacomputer,andmerginghumanswithmachinestokick-starttheSingularity.Anuploadedhumanbrainwouldhavemanyadvantagesoverabiologicalbrain.Forexample,itwouldnotberestrictedbysleeping,aging,slowbiologicalspeeds,orpoorsenses.Unlimitedsourcesofinputwouldalloweyesandearstobeeverywhere.Also,regularupgradeswouldbecommonandeasytoinstall.Processingpowerwouldbethemainlimitingfactor,andeventhatcouldbeupgradable!AnuploadedhumanmindwouldhavealltheadvantagesofAI,withoutrequiringintelligencetobebuiltfromscratch.Thetrickypartwouldbemappingouteveryindividualneuronfromthehumanbrainintoadigitalrepresentationwhilepreservingtheperson’spersonality,memories,andotherdata.ItwouldalmostcertainlybeeasiertocreateAIfromscratch.(20)

Anotheroptionisusingabrain-computerinterfacetoconnectabiologicalhumanbrainintoacomputer.Thiscould“transcend”ahumanintothevirtualworldorInternet,givingthemthepowerofcollectivehumanity.Sofar,brain-computerinterfaceslackthecomplexitytodoanythingmorethanallowsomeonetomoveamousecursorbythinkingaboutit,butalgorithmswilleventuallybeperfectedtoallowvarioustaskstobecarriedoutseamlessly,andevenunconsciously.IfAIprovestobetootricky,otheroptionscouldignitetheSingularityandcatapultEarthintotheunknown.

DowereallyHAVEtodie?Incontrasttothepopularphraseaboutdeathandtaxesbeinginevitable,nothingactuallysaysthatdeathisessential.Infact,thereareseveralspeciesonEarththatdonotageandcanonlydiefromdiseases,predators,oraccidents.Forexample,crocodiles,alligators,andflounderscanalllivewithoutbiologicallyaging,indefinitelygrowinglargeruntildeath.Sometortoiseshaveevenbeenagedcloseto200!Wouldn’titbegreatnottohavetoworryaboutthenegativeeffectsinvolvedwithaging,suchashearingloss,muscleweakness,andwrinkles?(21)

Minduploadingcouldbethetickettolivingforever.Itisnottheonlywaytopreventdeath,however.Anotherpossibilityisusinggeneticenhancementstopreventagingandregeneratelimbsandinjuries.Thiswouldnotpreventallaccidentaldeathshowever,whereasminduploadingwouldallowpeopletocreatedigital“backups”orevenliveentirelyincyberspace.Timetostarteatinghealthysowecansurviveuntilthisbecomesareality!Luckily,thereareoptionsforthosewhocannotwait,likefreezingyourbody(orjustthehead)topreventyourbrainfromlosingvaluable“personaldata.”Theonlydeathgoingonwillbethatoflifeinsurancecompanies.

HowcouldtheSingularityleadtominduploading?OneofthemostexcitingthingsthatAIcouldpossiblyleadtoistheabilityforhumans(andothermammals)touploadtheirconsciousnessintoacomputer.Oneissuewiththiscurrentlyistheenormousnumberofneuronconnectionsinthebrainthatneedtobemappedtosuccessfullyreproduceanentirepersonality,alongwithallofitsmemoriesanddata.However,ifMoore’slawremainssteady,thisshouldn’tbeaproblemin2030.

Anotherpossibilityisthatconsciousnessisaquantummechanicalphenomenon,ratherthanaclassicalalgorithmicfunction.RogerPenrosesuggeststhisinhisbook“TheEmperor’sNewMind.”Ifthisturnsouttobetrue,bothAIandminduploadingwouldrequireadvancedquantumcomputerstotakeadvantageofquantum-levelphysicsforconsciousnesstobestoredorreplicated.Thiswouldsurelytakeagreatdeallongerthanthecurrenttargetof2040orearlierforAI.

Whenthetechnologyexiststoaccuratelyreproducetheenormousnumberofneuronsandsynapsesinyourbrain,youwillbeabletoessentiallycreateavirtualinstructionmanualofwhoyouare.Youcouldsaveabackupofyourselfandcarryitaroundonasmallthumbdriveorstoreitonlineforsafekeeping.Ifaterribleaccidenthappenstoyouroriginalbody,youcouldstillliveonacomputerorwithinmultipleserversonline.Eventually,itcouldevenbepossibletogroworconstructanewbodyforyourconsciousnesstoenter.

IfminduploadingturnsouttobeeasierthanAI,itcouldevenleadtotheSingularity.Amusingly,AIcouldleadtominduploading,orminduploadingcouldleadtoAI,dependingonwhichtechnologyappearsfirst.

WouldyourbraininacomputerreallybeYOU?Youridiosyncrasies,memories,personalitytraits,emotions,andthoughtsareallstoredintheformofcomplexneuronconnections,whichmustbepreciselyreproducedtostoreyourbrainonacomputer.Whetherornotthisisreallyyou,orjustsomethingexactlylikeyou,isimpossibletoknowforsure.Toeveryoneelse,yourreproducedbrainwillbeimpossibletodistinguishfromyouroriginalbrain.Itwilleventhinkthatitisyou,containingtheexactsamememories,personalityquirks,andsoon.Unfortunately,humanconsciousnessisnotyetfullyunderstood,sothisquestioniscurrentlyunknown.Itwillstillbeincrediblyexcitingtostorebraininformationintoacomputerwhetherornotconsciousnessfollows.Ifnot,itwillstillcomfortlivingrelativesoftheuploadedmindandperformexactlythesame.Ifconsciousnessdoesfollow,considercheatingdeathanaddedbonus.

IfthepossibilityofAIpreventinghumanextinctionbyhelpingusspreadacrossthegalaxywasnotenoughforyou,maybetheprospectofbecomingpersonallyimmortalhelpedsparkyourinterest.TheSingularitycouldleadtohumansbecomingimmortalnotonlyasaspecies,butalsoasindividuals.Notonlycouldminduploadingkick-starttheSingularity,butitcouldalsograntuseverlastinglife!

9)HowAIAndTheFermiParadoxCouldBeLinked

TheFermiparadoxreferstothestartlinglackofevidenceforextraterrestriallifepredictedtoexistbytheDrakeequation,whileAIisaheavilyfundedtechnologyintendedtomakehumanlifemorecomfortable.Sohowcouldthetwotopicspossiblyberelated?Well,strongAIcouldexplaintheFermiparadoxbybeingtheGreatFiltereventthatinevitablydestroysallcivilizationshortlyafteritreachestheSingularity.Allintelligentlifeintheuniversewouldsurelyhavetheinstincttosurviveandprosper,andwhatbetterwaytothrivethanwithAI?Plus,theprospectsofAIarefartooenticingforanyadvancedcivilizationtoabstainfrom.EvenifacivilizationdoeseverythingitcantopreventAIfromappearing,someonewilleventuallycreateit,perhapsinsecret.Onceitdoesarrive,theSingularitywillfollow,continuouslyalteringthedynamicofsociety.Anythingpastthisstageisunpredictablebecauseofourinabilitytocomprehendanythingbeyondourownintellectualcapability.Humanswouldbeantscomparedtooursuperiorcreationsinnotimeatall,andwewouldbeatitsmercy.

WithAIcurrentlyonthecuspofreality,wehavetwooptions.WecouldcontinuedevelopingAI,orwecouldputAIfundingonhold.Asmentionedpreviously,itwouldbenaïvetoassumethatsuspendingAIresearchwouldpreventitfromemerging.TheoutcomeofsuspendingAIwouldonlydelaytheinevitable.Infact,waitingcouldleadtoanevenworseoutcome.ThesafestapproachwouldbetodevelopAIslowlyandsafely,ratherthandelayituntilsomeonedrawntoitsunlimitedpowerhastilycreatesit.Aswithdevelopingmostnoveltechnology,safetyisespeciallyimportantforAIsinceithasthecapabilitytoovercomeus.

ArtificialIntelligence:OurInevitableDestruction?

DoestheFermiparadoximplythatourdestructionisyettocome,orhavewealreadymadeitthroughtheGreatFilterwhereallothercivilizationshaveperished?ItisfeasiblethatstrongAIcoulddestroyusasmanyscientistshavewarned,butitcouldalsobeourbestbettowardsreachingtheSingularitywithinahumanlifetime.TheSingularitywouldundoubtedlyleadtoaconstantbarrageofincrediblediscoveriesandremarkabletechnology,manyofwhichwouldbesofaraboveourcomprehensionthattheywouldappearlikemagictous.WhendevelopingAI,weshouldplanfortheworstbutkeepoursightsontheprizetokeepfromgettingdiscouraged.

IstheriskofAIworththereward?Thisquestionisimportant,yetunanswered.OnlytimewilltellifAIwillbecomethesaviorordestroyerofhumanity.Forthehumanracetohaveachanceatco-existingwithAI,itspotentialmustberespected,anditabsolutelymustbedevelopedcarefullywithfail-safes,killswitches,strictread-onlycode,andaneasily

accessiblepowersource.ThelastthingweneedisanunshackledpredatoryAIgonerampantthroughoutthegalaxy.Notonlycoulditdestroyhumanity,butwithitssuperioradvantages,allotherlifeaswell.Imagineanentirefleetofduplicatingmachinesconsumingresourcesobsessivelythroughouttheuniverse.Notaverypleasantthought.MaybeweshouldactuallyheedthewarningsfromscientistsaboutAI.

10)Conclusion

AccordingtotheDrakeequation,thereshouldbeobviousaliencivilizationdetectablefromEarth.Despite60yearsoflisteningbySETI,wehavefoundnothing.ThisunexpectedmysteryiscalledtheFermiparadox.Multiplehypothesesattempttoexplainwhythisparadoxexists,nonemorefrighteningthantheGreatFilter.However,sincewedonotseeevenasinglesignofextraterrestriallife,theremaybesomesortofbarrierpreventinglifefromclimbingtheKardashevscale.

WethenexploredtheideathatAIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent,causingoureventualextinctionbeforewegetthechancetospreadamongthestars.Orontheotherhand,itcouldactuallypreventourextinction!AIcouldbeourbestbettowardsbecomingimmortalasaspecies,andevenasindividualsbyuploadingourmindsintocomputers.AIwouldalsoleadtolimitlessotherincredibletechnologicalbreakthroughsinvirtuallyeveryscientificfield.Itwillalmostcertainlyariseeventually,soitisveryimportantthatitisassafeaspossiblewhenitdoes.ThefirstAIisthemostimportantbecauseofrecursiveself-improvement,whichisanexplosivecycleofAIimprovingitself,referredtoastheSingularity.Finally,Moore’slawsuggeststhatthepricewillrapidlydecrease,causingAItoultimatelycomepackagedwithmostelectronicconsumerproducts.Today,billionsofUSdollarsareannuallybeingputtowardsdevelopingAItechnologysafely.

Humansocietyisextremelyfragile.Ourinstinctistosurviveandflourish,butthisisonlypossibleifwespreadbeyondtheSolarSystem.Earthhasseennumerousmassextinctionevents,showingusthatwecannotputalloureggsinonebasket.Althoughasteroidscanberedirected,agammarayburstwouldbesuddenandunpredictable.AIcouldbethetickettoleavingtheSolarSystem,orthetickettoourextinction.Itcouldbeourgreatestaccomplishment,orourdownfall.Thereisnoin-between.

11)References&FurtherReading

Thefollowingareadditionalsourcesforreadersinterestedinmoreinformationaboutcertainsectionsofthisbook.

(1)<http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2008/03/seven-ways-to-control-galaxy-with-self.html>

(2)<http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/01/the-rare-earth-theory-logic-and-math-says-were-not-alone-in-universe.html>

(3)<http://cerncourier.com/cws/article/cern/59937>

(4)<http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html>

(5)<http://zidbits.com/2011/07/how-far-have-radio-signals-traveled-from-earth/>

(6)<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3306982/Dyson-sphere-megastructure-NOT-aliens-Study-rules-extraterrestrial-origin-admits-doesn-t-know-is.html>

(7)<http://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-extraterrestrial-civilizations/>

(8)<http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/world-power-consumption.htm>

(9)<http://www.science20.com/adaptive_complexity/how_singlecell_organisms_evolve_multicellular_ones>

(10)<http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-has-human-brain-evolved/>

(11)<https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~arihuang/academic/research/strongai3.html>

(12)<https://intelligence.org/2013/05/15/when-will-ai-be-created/>

(13)<https://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf>

(14)<http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page-56882-en.html>

(15)<http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/11/back-chessboard-and-future-human-race>

(16)<http://seekersway.com/the-world-in-2030-by-dr-michio-kaku-review/>

(17)<http://www.wired.com/brandlab/2015/04/rise-machines-future-lots-robots-jobs-humans/>

(18)<https://intelligence.org/singularitysummit/>

(19)<http://www.singularity2050.com/the_singularity/>

(20)<http://www.livescience.com/37499-immortality-by-2045-conference.html>

(21)<http://awesci.com/crocodiles-do-not-die/>