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When People Start Thinking about Machines becoming“increasingly capable” EXPONENTIALLY…
A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…
How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope
How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope
How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope
How AI beat the best poker players in the world | Engadget R+Dhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLXPGwJNLHk
4 Heads Up, No Limit “Texas Hold’em” Poker
pros;each play 30,000 hands of poker over 20 days
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLXPGwJNL
Hk
How Well Machines Play GamesHas been a Recurring Trope
SeaFall by Game Designer Rob Daviauhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dFQwKz1F4s
We Have Run Out of Games…
We have essentially entered a new era of computing
Systems that Do
Systems that Think
Systems that Learn
That new era features a Spectrum of AI Deployments
Assisted Intelligence –applications that help us better perform tasks we are doing today
Augmented Intelligence
Autonomous Intelligence
A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…
A Variety of Images Leap to Mind…
“Increasingly Capable Machines” as Existential Threat
When Machines Do Everything, “What am I Going to do?”
George Segal,Depression Breadline 1991
[at the FDR Memorial]
“Increasingly Capable Machines” as Occupational Threat
Caillebotte at MFA Boston
Are We Looking at the “AI Issue/Opportunity”
the Right Way?
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
is THE Great Story of Our Time
AI is the Issue du Jour
This impacts all of us
McKinsey study“100% of ‘jobs’
as they are thought of today will be affected.”
The Right Question to be Focusing On…
What are We
Going to Do?
The Futurist Lexicon
Italian Futurism Exhibit at the Guggenheim [10 May 2014]
When thinking of what might happen in future, Some futurists skip to the end
This is dramatic but rarely accurate
A less dramatic process
Involves analyzing
“one step jumps” [what comes next]
&
Postulating the “adjacent possible”
Jobs Will Be… Alexander Calder, Across the Orange Moons 1967
Eliminated
Enhanced
Emerged[jobs created
that did not exist before]
21
Jump Ball
In the conversations about “the future”
at your organization
What % focus on:
Job Elimination
Job Enhancement
Job Creation
Other
22
In Most Organizations…
90% of the conversations
auger in around Job Elimination
23
A Range of Estimateshave Been Generated
38 percent of U.S. jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s,
followed by Germany (35 percent), the U.K. (30 percent) and Japan (21 percent).
The automation appears highest in the transportation (56 percent),
manufacturing (46 percent) and wholesale/retail (44 percent) sectors, but lower in
healthcare and social work (17 percent). PwC Economic Forecast https://insights.samsung.com/2017/05/04/artificial-intelligence-and-the-role-of-workers/
24
A Range of Estimateshave Been Generated
Another McKinsey report states that automation could come to affect
50% of the world’s economy, i.e. some 1.2 billion employees.
April 28, 2017 goo.gl/HvxhUw
Big Media is Obsessed withJob Elimination
Observation
The Media Appears to Have Under-played/Overlooked
the Enhancement & Emergent Scenarios Observation
Hypothesis
Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]
Smart machines will displace
many workers
A Couple of Things to Think About
Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]
A] Not All Job THAT CAN be Automated
WILL BE AutomatedB] Productivity Gains
Generated by Automation will generate added wealth which will increase # of Service jobs
Forecast Not implementing automation-at-scalewill be viewed as malfeasance
Forecast
By 2030 AI standards,
Most of the Organizations in this Room:
REALLY SUCK!
ForecastHuman-Only Analysis of MRI, CAT Scan
or X-Ray will be call for medical malpractice in 5 years
Forecast
Continuous Health Monitoring will Give Rise to
Personal Health Forecasting [ala weather forecasting]
Personal Health Forecast
“Hey Thornton, can we meet on Friday?”
“Let me check.”
“Nope, looks like I will have the flue
on Friday.”
Hypothesis
The impact of automation will vary across
disciplines, industries & geographies
Forecast
Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the World Economic Forum
In 10 years, having a Bot on the Board of Directors will be “good board practice.”
Forecast
Increasingly you will hear CEOs telling shareholders,
“We are an AI-First Company.”
Observation
People Like & Depend on AI
Tatsuro Kiuchi
AI has become part of daily life
Observation People Like & Depend on AI
x St. Augustine, FLAugust 11-12, 2015
Tatsuro Kiuchi
Observation
Most companies don’t have not set apart the time or resourcesto map out their plans for an AI-enabled world
You Need a Plan
TTP – Techniques, Tactics & Procedures
Are We Thinking about the Problem
the Right Way?
Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]
Are We Talking about the Problem the Right Way?
ANY Job is a sum of its tasks[e.g., there are 28 tasks associated
with the job of being an accountant]
The question is not: “Will this job be automated?”
The question is:“What tasks associated with the job will be automated?”
ANY Job is a sum of its tasks
ANY Job is a sum of its tasks
Decompose Current Work Streams into Their Components Tasks
Action Item
Gustave Caillebotte, The Floor-Scrapers [1878]
There is career security in
information security
For Now…
Aaron LevieCEO @Box
There is career security in
data science
For Now…
Before We Get FrenziedOver Current Jobs Disappearing
http://bigthink.com/videos/missing-the-200-pound-gorilla-in-the-room
The Gorilla NOBODY Sees
The Elephant in the RoomNobody Wants to Talk About
67% of the U.S. Workforce is “unengaged”
Counter Intuitive Truth
Cathy Beech, CISOChildren’s Hospital of Philadelphia
[9 May 2017]
Hypothesis
AI will create work that is better, more productive
and more satisfying than ever before.Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May
2017]
The Upside
AI is about to usher in a
new industrial revolution
Marcel Duchamp, Chocolate Grinder (No. 2) 1914
The Upside
Those who manage it properly
will experience significant economic
growth
Marcel Duchamp, Chocolate Grinder (No. 2) 1914
The Upside
Mark Cuban tells everybody
that the world’s first trillionaire will be an
“AI trillionaire”
The Budding Effect
Technology innovation creates industries
The Budding Effect
Uniform Grass Gave Birth to Organized Sports –a $1.5 trillion + industry
The Budding Effect
Uniform Grass Gave Birth to Organized Sports –a $1.5 trillion + industry
Hypothesis
AI will raise living
standards
Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]
Economic growth will be
far strongerthan any
we’ve seen in the
Western world during the
past 50 years
We have all seen this movie before
Winslow Homer, The Veteran in a New Field, 1865
In 1870, 90% of Americans labored on Farms
Today < 2%
We don’t have 98% unemployment
Lessons From History
Joseph Mallord William Turner,Rain, Steam, and Speed - The Great Western Railway 1844
In the beginning, technology eliminates jobs
faster than technology creates jobs
Lessons From History
IN 1930, John Maynard Keynes penned “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”
labeling a new malady – “technological unemployment…due to our discovery of means of economising
the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”
How Will / How Should Government Respond to the trauma of worker dislocation?
Inauguration of William H. Taft at the Capitol, March 1909
Regulate % of Human Labor Required in CertainProducts & Services?
Lessons From History
When food was scarce,
bread riots occurred
Lessons From History
Might we anticipateJob
and/or Skill Riots?
Government Response?
Basic Income Guarantee [universal monthly payment
for all workers]
“Employability Loans”“People need to be able to
borrow money to build up their skillsets and retrain and then pay off their debt as soon as
they find work.
These loans could even sometimes be granted by an
employer rather than the bank to a future employee,
who would then reimburse the loan at a low rate of interest.”
Jobs Will Be… Alexander Calder, Across the Orange Moons 1967
12%Eliminated
75%Enhanced
13%Emerged
[jobs createdthat did not exist before]
Is that the Right Question to Ask?
Hypothesis
Know-It-AllBusinesses
Leaders can and should have continuous awareness of all
that is occurring in their organization’s operations
.
Rodin Museum, PHL [8 May 2017]
