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AHS and Later-Life Mobility. Miranda Dietz & Larry A. Rosenthal Goldman School of Public Policy UC-Berkeley. Motivation: Aging-In-Place and Real Estate Markets. Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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AHS AND LATER-LIFE MOBILITY
Miranda Dietz & Larry A. RosenthalGoldman School of Public Policy
UC-Berkeley
MOTIVATION:AGING-IN-PLACE AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS
• Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us
• Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends
• Exploration: Can AHS Longitudinal Structure For Housing Units Shed More Light?
STRATEGY FOR CAPTURING MOBILITY IN AHS
• Ask All Householders in 2009:“When Did You Move In To This Place?”
• Believe Their Answer! (Trust Recollection By Year)• More Important: Trust Recollection By Month• Problem: Don’t Know How Long Current
Respondent Will Stay In The Future (“Right Censoring”)
• Solution: Use Prior Biannual AHS Draws, By Unit, To Observe Completed Stays (“Backtracking”)
• Concern: We Might Be Undersampling Short Stays (E.g., Arrivals-Departures Between Surveys)
“BACKTRACKING”
AHS MOBILITY: DIFFERENT STORY
AVERAGE DURATIONS (HH-ERS OVER 40)
DISPERSION OF DURATION (HH-ERS OVER 40)
MEDIAN DURATIONS BY GENERATION (MOVERS AND NON-MOVERS)
COMPARING MOVERS AND “STAYERS”
MOBILITY OVER AGE 40
EXAMPLE OF LIFE TABLE (DURATION OF STAY)
CLOSING THOUGHTS
• Mobility vs. “Aging-In-Place”:AHS Provides A Unique Glimpse
• Causes For Later-Life Duration Choice:More Complicated– Boomers Constrained By Reduced
Savings, The Great Recession, AndThe Changing Nature of Work
• Additional Research:– Generation-Mixing (“Hosting”)– Retirement vs. Continuing Labor-Market
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THANK YOU.
HTTP://URBANPOLICY.BERKELEY.EDU