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Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Sask., Dec. 11-12, 2000 1
International NegotiationsWhere are we now? Issues for Agriculture
Dr. Wayne Lindwall Dr. Wayne Lindwall
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre (SPARC)
Swift Current, Saskatchewan
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Sask., Dec. 11-12, 2000 2
Globally Agriculture is a Globally Agriculture is a Major Source of GHG’sMajor Source of GHG’s> 25% of the Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
> 50% of the Methane (CH4)
> 70% of the Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 3
Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Sector - 1996________________________________
Transportation 11.4% Manufacturing18.9%
Energy 17.1%
Electric Utilities 18.9%
Other 2.9%
Institutional 12.3%Mining 3.8%
Pulp & Paper4.7%
Agriculture 10%
Context/CertaintyContext/Certainty
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 4
Kyoto target:563 Tg
671
748Business-As-Usual Range
450
550
600
750
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
500
650
700
800
GH
G E
mis
sio
ns
(Tg
of
CO
2 e
qu
iva
len
t)
1990 Baseline:599 Tg
703
140-185 Tg (20-25%)
Greenhouse gas emissions in Canada and the projected gap by 2010 to meet the Kyoto commitment
Gap increasing, implications for Ag sector
If we have to reduce GHGs by 25%
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 5
Intent of the U.N. Climate Intent of the U.N. Climate Change ConventionChange Convention
• “to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system”
• Countries are to take measures to reduce emissions from sources and enhance removals by sinks.
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 6
Climate Change Definitions
• Sink - “Any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere” (eg. Photosynthesis, growing trees & crops)
• Source - “Any process or activity which adds a greenhouse gas to the atmosphere” (eg. fossil fuels, burn biomass, N2O, CH4)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 7
Objective:Objective: Decision framework for inclusion of Ag. Soil Sinks at COP6 at the The Hague
• Decisions on additional sink activities …..should be based on sound science
• …..promote other social and environmental benefits (conservation, soil & water quality, biodiversity)
• …..should be consistent with principles of SLM and objectives of Climate Convent.
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 8
Promote Principle of Full Promote Principle of Full Carbon/GHG AccountingCarbon/GHG Accounting
• Enhancement of sinks and reduction of sources (all greenhouse gases)
• Including GHG sources from agriculture and NOT including sinks is inconsistent with intent of CC Convention and objectives of Kyoto
• Acknowledge uncertainties and challenges associated with measurement, verification, permanence, natural vs. human induced
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 9
Science Focus of “Sinks”Sinks” Seminars (and informal hallway discussions over last 2+ years)
• C-sequestration consistent with universal principles of soil and water conservation– Soil Quality/Productivity relationship
– Linkages to Biodiversity,Desertification, & Wetlands Conventions, global principles of sustainable develop
– Other environmental benefits, water quality, habitat• Address concerns/questions (herbicides, nutrients,etc)
– Acknowledge other GHG and quantify relationship
– Describe sink activities and estimated C gains, risks
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 10
Focus of Sinks Seminars• Measurement and Verification Issues
– Small sink in relation to large C pool
– Variability high but manageable with appropriate methodology
– Scaling up requires integration of technologies and use of process models
– Uncertainties often less than those associated with sources (double standard?)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 11
IPCC Special Report and Policy Implications• Recommendations from Special Report should
be basis for Decision on inclusion of additional sink activities in Kyoto Protocol
• Report confirmed that sinks are real and land use changes - legitimate means to reduce GHG
• Full C accounting would lead to significant carbon credits for many countries
• Options exist to deal with uncertainties, measurement and verification, etc. (cost?)
• Also, positive environ, social, economic impacts
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 12
Significant Progress over last 8 months
Impact of IPCC Science Special Report
Framework for countries’ sink submissions
Sinks Workshop in Poland to discuss SR and countries different issues/perspectives
August 1 submissions clarified sink numbers and countries expectations
Lyon, Viterbo mtgs. resulted in draft sinks text
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 13
Observations• Growing acceptance of Ag. Soil Sinks and
recognition of multiple secondary benefits and linkages to int’l sustainable development
• Size of potential (forest) sink is a major concern of many countries (EU, China/G77, OASIS, NGOs) and possibly their most N.B. criteria for inclusion rather than science or other criteria
• International awareness of GEMCo PSCB Project, farmer/industry (SSCA) support and science leadership, U.S. farm lobby support
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 14
Canada’s Agr. Soil Sinks Canada’s Agr. Soil Sinks Submission (Position)Submission (Position)Broad land-based inclusion to ensure
balanced & comprehensive accounting of sources and sinks
Cropland and grazing land management and shelterbelts (in addition to forest management)
Potential C-sink of 4 to 20 Mt of CO2/yr
over the 1st commitment period (2008-12)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 15
Sinks Submissions to U.N. Secretariat in August, 2000
Assigned Amount (Mt CO2/y)
GAP
(Mt CO2/y)
Forest Managemt (Mt CO2/y)
Cropland & Grazing (Mt CO2/y)
U.S. 5,645 2,200 1,057 87.5
CANADA 563 200 35 4 to 20
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 16
Canada’s Position (con’t)
Symmetrical and balanced treatment of sources and sinks
Balanced approach consistent with principles of sustainable development and transparency of GHG accounting
Uncertainties of non-CO2 gases are greater than for C/CO2
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 17
Summary from Lyon meetings Good progress on the Sinks – Parties Aug. 1
submissions lead to 10-page draft text
Size of US sinks lead to discounting proposal
EU concerns about scale, verification, natural
EU/G77 concerns about sinks in CDM
Canada presentations to African countries and Special Ag Soil Sinks awareness seminar
Canada’s position- including Sinks is a condition of ratification of Kyoto Protocol
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 18
CoP6 Phase-In of Sinks (U.S/Canada/Japan proposal)
• Phase-in: movement toward fuller carbon accounting which better reflects what the atmosphere sees.
• allowing cost effective and environmentally beneficial activities to receive credit.
• addressing concerns of Parties about 3.4 activities in the first commitment period.
• Including C-sequestration activities– as monitoring and measurement techniques are
implemented; future commitment periods.
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 19
What did we Want to Achieve with the Phase-In of Sinks?
• Address the issue of scale (which can include the possible influence of natural and indirect human effects)
• Be simple and transparent
• Preserve full incentives for additional action to enhance and protect sinks and reservoirs
• Needs of Parties and consistent with Parties’ understanding of what was agreed to at Kyoto
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 20
The Issue of Scale:Where should we focus?
0% 50% 100%
Canada
U.S.A.
Forest Mgmt
Grazing Land
Crop Land
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 21
The Issue of Scale:What is the concern?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
A Can. E G U.S.ACountry
ForestManagement
and Base Year Emissions
(MtonnesCarbon
Per Year)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 22
The Issue of Scale:What is the concern?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
A B C D E F G H I
Country
ForestManagement
MtonnesCarbon
Per Year
Allowance
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 23
Defining the Initial Threshold• The initial interval (threshold) is the point at
which the scale issue becomes a concern.
• This was a judgement call – there is no scientific answer,
• There were several approaches to defining this initial threshold:
– An absolute number
– In relation to base year emissions, AA, or gap?
– A combination of the 2 (e.g., the lesser of …)
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 24
So What Happened?• EU initially receptive to Phase-In Proposal
• EU Media found out they were receptive
• EU rejected Phase-In idea as a non starter
• Counter proposals involved caps on sinks
• Little or no movement by Parties, impass?
• Pres. Of CoP developed compromise proposal that Parties could work hopefully from
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 25
President Pronk’s Proposal• Additional forest and agriculture activities
in 1st Commitment Period, but…
• Significant 85% discount on forest mgte.
- address scale, uncertainty, BAU
• Discount of 30% on agriculture sinks
- address uncertainty, permanence,
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 26
A E S A G H G F o rum , N is k u , M a rc h 1 3 -1 4 , 2 0 00 1 8
Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Primary A griculture (potential emissions/sinks for 2010)
9
22
32
3
23
41
-1
23
43
-16
25
48
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50M
t of
CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
ts
1991 1996 2000 2010
CO2
CH4
N2O
Annual Ag. Sources & Sinks
Assumptions 2010: 20% increase in livestock and 50%Adoption (optimistic?) of Best management practices
Agriculture GHG/Climate Change Workshop
Saskatoon, Dec. 11-12, 2000 27
Future Implications/Needs • If Ag Soil Sinks not included, greater burden on
sector to reduce emissions (difficult & costly)
• Livestock sector will be major target (largely because of growing emissions)
• If Sinks are included, require national inventory system for C stock (& GHGs)
• More research on N2O and CH4, and C cycle process studies with alternative cropping systems; alternative uses of ag bi-products