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TAKING CAREOF BUSINESS
Macro Clinic Video Blog: www.compeer.com/educationRoad Warrior of Agriculture: www.cornandsoybeandigest.comAg Globe Trotter: www.northwestfcs.comDave’s GPS & Dashboard Indicators: www.farmermac.com
Dr. David M. KohlProfessor Emeritus, Agricultural and Applied Economics
Member of Academic Hall of Fame, College of Agriculture & Life SciencesVirginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
(540) 961-2094 (Alicia Morris) | (540) 719-0752 (Angela Meadows) | [email protected]
January 8, 2019
Why Some Businesses Are More Profitable Than Others
These businesses are a “little” better at: production marketing cost control asset and capital efficiency
utilize the 5% Rule
2
Median Net Farm Income
3
Is the New Normal the Old Normal?
Time Period Approximate Net Farm Income
In Constant Dollars
Era Name
2013-2017 $35,000 Agricultural Economic Reset
1996-2001 $50,000 Asian Tigers Boost Commodity Demand
2001-2005 $54,000 Pre Agricultural Super Cycle
2007-2012 $125,000 Agricultural Commodity Super Cycle
4
Source: https://finbin.umn.edu/
Net Farm Income, 2012
5
Net Farm Income, 2016
6
Net Farm Income, 2017
7
8
Collateral Mountains WorkingCapital Hills
Cash Peak Inventory
Pinnacle
Accounts Receivable Ridge
Prepaid Promise
Lake Earnings
Earned Wealth Inlet
Non-Farm Earnings Spring
Business Net Income
Spring
Capital Infusion or Refinancing
Canteen
*EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
Adapted From: Harlan Hill- Hill Financial Education
Prosperity ValleyFamily Living/
Dividends Creek
Principal & Interest/
Operating Delta
Killer Toy
Swamp
Cap Ex & Growth Run
Income Tax
Gulch
How quick to cash?
25%
50%
25%
Postponed
Economic Warming
The Burn Rate – Working CapitalAdversity vs. Opportunity
Defensive “Adversity Oriented”Current Assets: $2,000,000
-Current Liabilities: $1,000,000= Working Capital: $1,000,000
Projected Loss: $500,000
Working Capital = 2 YearsProjected Loss
Red < 1.0 Year = VulnerableYellow 1.0-3.0 Years = ResilientGreen >3.0 Years = Agile
9
Offensive “Opportunity Oriented”Current Assets: $2,000,000-Current Liabilities: $1,000,000= Working Capital: $1,000,000
Debt Service(Existing & New) Payments: $200,000Working Capital = 5 YearsTotal Debt Service Payments
Red < 2.5 Years = VulnerableYellow 2.5-5.0 Years = ResilientGreen >5.0 Years = Agile
Burn Rate on Core EquityAdversity vs. Opportunity
10
Assets- Market Value
Estimated Value
Loan Maximum
Collateral Position
RemainingPrincipal
Equity Excess Reserves
1. Long Term (20% Decline on Land)
$6,000,000$4,800,000
X 70%X 70%
= $4,200,000= $3,360,000
- $2,200,000- $2,200,000
= $2,000,000= $1,160,000
2. Intermediate $3,000,000 X 60% =$1,800,000 - $800,000 = $1,000,000
3. Current $1,650,000 X 80% =$1,320,000 - $860,000 = $460,000
Burn Rate: Land & Long Term Equity Reserves= Excess Reserves= $2,000,000 = 4.0 YearsEarnings Loss¹ $ 500,000
20% Decline Burn Rate: Land & Long Term Equity Reserves= Excess Reserves= $1,160,000 = 2.32 Years
Earnings Loss¹ $ 500,000¹ Assume Earnings Loss of $500,000
(Assume $500,000 Earnings Loss & 20% land value decline)
Red < 4.0 Years = VulnerableYellow 4.0-7.0 Years = ResilientGreen >7.0 Years = Agile
Business IQ: Management FactorsProgressive BusinessesCustomer Checklist Green (3-4 points*) Yellow (2 points) Red (1 point)
1. Knows cost of production Written In head No idea
2. Knows cost of production by enterprise Written In head No idea
3. Goals- business, family & personal Written In head No idea
4. Record keeping system Accrual Schedule F (one & done) No idea
5. Projected cash flow Written In head No idea
6. Sensitivity analysis Written In head No idea
7. Understand financial ratios, break evens Written In head No idea
8. Work with advisory team and lender Yes Sometimes Never
9. Marketing plan written and executed Yes Sometimes Never
10. Risk management plan executed Yes Sometimes Never
11. Modest lifestyle habits, family living budget Yes Sometimes Non existent
12. Written plan for improvement executed & strong people management
Yes Sometimes Non existent
13. Transition plan/Business Owner plan Yes Working on plan Non existent/controversy
14. Educational seminars/courses Yes Sometimes Never attend
15. Attitude Proactive Reactive Indifferent
Score Overall Analysis
35-50 Strong management rating & viability
20-34 Moderate risk & viability; will most likely show previous refinancing
<20 High risk & lack of long term viability
*Extra Points:• Progressive Business may receive 4
points for #2,6,7,8,14• Struggling Business attempting
turnaround may receive 4 points for #3,5,8,11,12
Financial Philosophy & Perspectives cash is Queen – chess board equity is King profits and cash flow are the Kingdom volatility is either friend or foe business IQ will be the difference maker
12
Critical Financial Performance Index for Debt & Risk
Criteria Calculation Vulnerable Resilient AgileCustomer
3 Year Average
Debt/Asset Ratio Total Farm LiabilitiesTotal Farm Assets
>70% 40-70% <40%
Term Debt/EBITDA Total Term Debt (non-operating)EBITDA¹
>6:1 3:1-6:1 <3:1
Working Capital/Expenses
Current Assets - Current Liabilities Total Farm Expenses
<10% 10-33% >33%
Operating Expenses/Revenue
Operating Expenses²Total Farm Revenue
>85% 75-85% <75%
Coverage Ratio (Net Farm Income + Interest + Depreciation + Total Non-Farm Income – Income Tax Expenses-Family Living Withdrawals) / Total Annual Principal & Interest Payments on Term Debts & Capital Leases
<110% 110-150% >150%
8
¹ EBITDA = Net Farm Income + Interest + Depreciation² Operating Expenses Excluding Interest and Depreciation
Habits of Successful Businesses 1
goal focused & balanced business family personal
core values focused on five to seven key words that means success invest in productive assets
land machinery & equipment livestock people
modest family living withdrawals from the business develop and monitor income statements and cash flows
monthly quarterly
14
Habits of Successful Businesses 2
understand macro economics- how it creates opportunities and challenges and complete scenario analysis for: production price cost interest rates
follow the management principle of better before bigger 5% rule
60-30-10 rule of profitability and positive economic cycles interdependent vs. independent – know the value of people best crop you will ever raise
children grandchildren aspiring agriculturalists
15
Staying Positive in the Down Cycle network of people = self worth + net worth older – mentor and wisdom education and development take a look at yourself exercise hear the silence
giving back sweat the small stuff position for small accomplishments
16
Four “P’s” of Success
Purpose: working toward your passion Picture: mapping where you want to go Planning: written business plan & mental
image detailing your strategy and tactics Partnering: the people you will engage and
align with to accomplish the plan
17
Questions
18
Business IQ: Management FactorsCritical Questions for Crucial Conversations
19
Customer Checklist Green (3-4 points*) Yellow (2 points) Red (1 point)
1. Knows cost of production Written In head No idea
2. Knows cost of production by enterprise Written In head No idea
3. Goals- business, family & personal Written In head No idea
4. Record keeping system Accrual Schedule F (one & done) No idea
5. Projected cash flow Written In head No idea
6. Sensitivity analysis Written In head No idea
7. Understand financial ratios, break evens Written In head No idea
8. Work with advisory team and lender Yes Sometimes Never
9. Marketing plan written and executed Yes Sometimes Never
10. Risk management plan executed Yes Sometimes Never
11. Modest lifestyle habits, family living budget Yes Sometimes Non existent
12. Written plan for improvement executed Yes Sometimes Non existent
13. Transition plan/Business Owner plan Yes Working on plan Non existent/controversy
14. Educational seminars/courses Yes Sometimes Never attend
15. Attitude Proactive Reactive Indifferent
Score Overall Analysis
35-50 Strong management rating & viability
20-34 Moderate risk & viability; will most likely show previous refinancing
<20 High risk & lack of long term viability
*Extra Points:• Progressive Business may receive 4
points for #2,6,7,8,14• Struggling Business attempting
turnaround may receive 4 points for #3,5,8,11,12
20
Part 2
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICMEGA TRENDS
Macro Clinic Video Blog: www.compeer.com/educationRoad Warrior of Agriculture: www.cornandsoybeandigest.comAg Globe Trotter: www.northwestfcs.comDave’s GPS & Dashboard Indicators: www.farmermac.com
Dr. David M. KohlProfessor Emeritus, Agricultural and Applied Economics
Member of Academic Hall of Fame, College of Agriculture & Life SciencesVirginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
(540) 961-2094 (Alicia Morris) | (540) 719-0752 (Angela Meadows) | [email protected]
January 8, 2019
Radar Screen 2019-2020: “Low Beams” international trade USMCA China’s Belt & Road Initiative other
slowing of the global economy post mid term elections baby boomer, farm land values, “the great bridge” great wall of protein U.S. economy all time record! interest rates/dollar debt, debt, and debt- Achilles’ heel
22
U.S. Farm Real Estate Values
Source: Dr. Steve Isaacs, University of Kentucky
Farm Real Estate Perspectives
farm real estate appreciated or stayed level 79% of years from 1910-2017
since WWII (1941) farm real estate appreciated or stayed level 88% of the years
1910-WWII (1940) farm real estate appreciated 57% of the years
farm real estate was flat or declined for 13 years from 1920-1933
farm real estate declined for four years in the 1980’s
24
Land Value Resilience
local or regional vs. state or national marginal land values crop insurance hedge funds low interest rates cycle of refinancing Baby Boomer farmer
25
Factors Contributing to Dramatic Discount in Land Values
100 to 200 basis point increase in long term interest rates more conservative refinance cycle outside investors seeking alternative
investments supply and demand in a given area strong value of dollar, higher rates, less export
potential crash of the U.S. or global economy
26
State of U.S. Economy
110-plus months 106 & 120 months urban and coastal economies and the fly over
states central bank driven- U.S. and abroad wealth effect consumer investing consumer spending
27IMPACT: killers of economic expansions
Federal Reserve’sInterest Rate Barometer
Indicator Current Estimated “Flag” Levels
Unemployment Below 5.0% or Above 6.0%
GDP Growth Above 3.0% or Below 2.0%
Inflation Above 2.5% or Below 1.0%
Consumer Sentiment Above 90 orBelow 80
28
• Three increases in 2019
• trends matter • stock market/real estate wealth effect• copper prices
Mega Trends 2020-2030: “High Beams”
29
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Dietary Trends
Millennials, Gen Z & Baby Boomers cultured meat & non-dairy vegans- U.S. & abroad environmental footprint 95% of success is alignment of: resources talents markets
experiences & personalization vs. commoditization
30
“We have not seen anything yet.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Tech Transformation
robotics data in the food chain retail & wholesale disruption blockchain technology
31
“Market disruptors.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030: Non-Government Organizations
Smithfield lawsuits Monsanto lawsuits others biosecurity open pens antibiotic free animal welfare
32
“NGOs more disruptive than government regulations.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Technology/Consumer
bio engineering information convergence production consumers/food industry/producers great wall of protein & “impossible burger sliders” skill base
analyze data critical thinking communication
first replaces labor higher level of talent
systems/replicate – use of information data too connected
33“Think beer.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Technology & Productivity
interruptions occur on average every 2-7 minutes It takes a half hour to regain focus after interruptions drops IQ 10 points once interruptions occur interruptions contribute to a poor night’s sleep need 2 hours per day with no technology errors increase 19 times 4 alcoholic drinks techlash People touch their phone 2,617 times per day on average, or 2 hours and
25 minutes. Source: Wall Street Journal on May 17, 2018.
34
“Silence is golden.”
Mega Trends 2018-2030:Technology & Production
Country Corn(Percent Change)
Soybeans(Percent Change)
U.S. 21% 55%
China 48% 1.1%
Brazil 85% 108%
Argentina 174% 73%
Canada 36% 125%
Europe -9%
Paraguay 168%
35
Metric Tons Increase Since 2008-2009 til 2018
Source: Kirksville, MO presentation - University of Missouri
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Oil & Energy Economics
911 tragedy U.S. is globe’s major energy producer drive towards efficiency solar, wind, and electric 2040 Germany & France electric vehicles 2025- one fourth of cars in China will be electric Central Africa will become the new Saudi Arabia
36
“80% of ag expenses are energy related.”
Mega Trends 2018-2030:Natural Resource/Environmental
great water wars soil health air quality extremes in global weather moisture, temperature, other
energy weather applications to farming
37
“Accidental superpower: America/your business”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Millennials, Gen Z/Gen A 18-28 years old- 7.2 jobs $15,000- $20,000 cost of leaving 91% turnover in 3 years Gen Z values college degree less 4 generation work force
38
“Five year itch.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Old School Generation Vs. New School Generation
Old School Generation New School Generation
Control Structure
Manage Mentor
Collaboration Private Time
Career Path Projects
Tell How to Do Problem Solvers
8-5 Productivity & Flexibility
Course Bit Size
Job Description Create Job Description
Task Internships
Training Training & Development “Life Skills”
39“Old school vs. new school.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:People & Lifelong Learning people skills life long learning 3 to 5 educational venues annually aptitude vs. emotional intelligence internships 3,000/500/2,500 hour Rule
40
“If you are going to lead, then you must read.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:2020 Decade of Transition
agri-entrepreneurs multi task larger complex businesses cousins non-family members
women in farming, ranching, ag lending, and agribusinesses ag lending / non-traditional
41
“The mythical becomes typical.”
Mega Trends 2020-2030:Black Swans of the Economy
immigration disease cyberattacks in technology air banking agriculture
weather world wide economic debt depression
42“Paradigm shift in the economy.”