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Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

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Page 1: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Agriculture and Rural Development,Forests, and Water

Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts

KCleaver

June 9, 2006

Page 2: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

MDG1: Reducing Poverty is still mostly a rural development issue

Most of the poor are rural (70% on average)

Burk

ina

Uga

nda

Mau

ritan

iTa

nzan

iaM

ozam

biq

Nig

erZa

mbi

aG

ambi

aEt

hiop

iaG

hana

Mal

awi

Cam

bodi

aVi

etna

mM

ongo

liaKy

gyz

Geo

rgia

Hon

dura

sN

icar

agu

Yem

enN

epal

Sri L

anka

Rural 51 46 68 50 71 66 80 61 47 34 67 40 57 33 70 10 51 69 45 44 27

Urban 17 16 25 24 62 52 56 48 37 27 55 21 26 39 49 12 57 31 31 23 15

Difference 34 30 43 26 9 14 24 13 10 7 12 19 31 -6 21 -2 -6 38 14 21 12

Poverty Rates

Page 3: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

WDI, 2002

Partly because agriculture is the Leading Sector in Low Income Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

GDP per Capita ($)

Ag

ric a

s %

GD

P

Low income countries

Page 4: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

IFPRI studies by Fan et al

High Payoffs to agriculture R&D; but also to other interventions: investment works.

Number of Persons Removed from Poverty for a Given Public Investment in Agriculture versus other Sectors

0

30

60

90

120

150

Ag R&D Roads Education Irrigation Rural DevM R

up

ees

or

100,

00

0 Y

uan

India

China

Page 5: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Datt and Ravallion, 1998

Poverty is reduced in Indiaas crop yields increase (investment in R&D works)

0.75

1.25

1.75

2.25

2.75

1959 1963 1967 1978 1986 1991

4

4.5

5

*Lo g o f sq . p ov.gap index**Log o f ave. output/acre

Poverty* Yield**

Page 6: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Hazell and Ramasamy, 1991

Changes in Household Incomes in Southern India, 1973-84 (the poorest benefit from farm income expansion)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Landlesslaborers

Small rice farms Nonagriculturalhouseholds

Large rice farms Non-rice farns

Per

cent

incr

ease

Page 7: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Thirtle, et. al., 2002

Another way of looking at this: the poverty effect of a 1 % pro-ductivity Gain in Agriculture, Industry, and Services in India

Agriculture

Services

Industry-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Elas

ticity

(-ve

) of p

over

ty to

labo

r pro

duct

ivity

Page 8: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

% Change in Malnourished Children Depends on Public Investment in Agriculture, 2020 (IFPRI)

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Africa

South Aisa

S/E Asia Low investmentHigh investmentBaseline projection

Page 9: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

FAOSTAT, 2002

A problem however: agricultural area expansion has displaced forest and woodland; Need agricultural growth without area expansion

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996

Billio

n h

a

Forest/woodland

Agricultural area

Page 10: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Holt and Pryor, 1999

An opportunity being missed? Agribusiness Sector is also Large in Developing Economies and can pull agriculture

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Philippines India Chile Brazil United States

Share

of G

DP (%

)

Agribusiness

Agriculture

Page 11: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Taking an Integrated Approach to Value Chain Management;And the growing importance of private sector investment and innovation

Input industry

Research

Producers Food process industry

Food retail

industry

Consumers

Ext. service

Agricultural production Food industry Consumption

Page 12: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

FAOSTAT, 2002

Decline in Commodity Prices; 1979-1999 ……

FAOSTAT2002 / GEM2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Cocoa

Cotton

Coffee

Rice

Page 13: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

FAOSTAT, 2002

…… But recent increases may spell change; 2000-2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cotton Rice

Coffee

Cocoa

GEM, 2005

Page 14: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

To confront the challenges and address the opportunities, what has the Bank done lately?

The Bank’s 2002/2003 Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Resources Strategies, contributed to renewed donor interest in all three sectors

Bank advocacy for agricultural subsidy and trade reform starting to bite, though failure of Doha is a setback

Page 15: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

World Bank Lending for Rural Development up

Bank loans and credits with significant rural components are up:

From $5 billion in FY02 to $7 billion in FY 03 and FY04; $ 8 billion in FY05

The number of projects with rural components: 175 in FY03 to 195 in FY04, 217 in FY05

Page 16: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Composition of Rural Lending

One-third of rural lending is to the infrastructure sector, while the agriculture sector received a fifth.

Average FY03-04 = $7.5 billion

Agriculture 23%

Economic Sectors

8%

Social Sectors

26%

Law/J ustice/P ublic

Administration14%

Infrastructure29%

Average FY03-04 = $7.5 billion

Agriculture 23%

Economic Sectors

8%

Social Sectors

26%

Law/J ustice/P ublic

Administration14%

Infrastructure29%

FY05 = $8.7 billion

Agriculture 24%

Economic Sectors

8%

Social Sectors

21%

Law/J ustice/P ublic

Administration17%

Infrastructure30%

Page 17: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Bank Agriculture Lending declined from 1990-2002

0

1

2

3

4

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Le

nd

ing

to A

g. sec

tor

($b

il)

0

24

68

1012

14

16

% o

f to

tal B

an

k len

din

g

Lending ($)

% of Bank total

Page 18: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

But is now increasing

Agricultural Lending Commitments ($million)

Avg. FY99-01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

AFR 190 308 318 287 295 703

EAP 363 151 119 358 253 400

ECA 311 644 342 175 153 188

LCR 229 100 61 387 238 349

MNA 188 5 199 33 229 25

SAR 157 328 251 255 955 462

Total 1,438 1,536 1,289 1,495 2,122 2,127

Page 19: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

IBRD/IDA commitments to the agriculture sector by subsector, FY1999- 2006 (projected), $ million

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

Agric extension & research 137 70 48 117 247 402

Agric market & trade 107 221 72 85 95 158

Agro-industry 60 68 4 24 94 36

Animal production 53 25 23 61 32 106

Crops 119 487 96 80 64 58

Forestry 89 128 166 29 63 207

Gen agr/fish/for sec 479 202 660 330 458 767

Irrigation & drainage 394 335 220 769 1,069 395

Total 1,438 1,536 1,289 1,495 2,122 2,127

Page 20: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Why the decline in agriculture lending from FY90 to FY03 (increasing only in FY04 to FY06)?

Agriculture relatively less important as new sectors became priority (social protection, development policy lending, anti-corruption, public administration)

Big projects fell out of favor (for example large scale irrigation, integrated rural development, agriculture credit, commodity support through parastatal enterprises).

New style projects are smaller scale (CDD, irrigation rehab, micro-credit, agriculture research and knowledge, soil rehabilitation and land management, land titling)

Agriculture not the priority of Ministers of Finance, nor of Bank country directors

Quality problems with agriculture projects until recently

Urban group argued that rapid expansion of cities in developing countries, should cause a shift in priority to urban development

Page 21: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Quality of Bank’s Agriculture Projects

Early QAG ratings for quality at entry, and quality of supervision for agriculture projects were poor However, quality at entry for agriculture and rural projects

(88% satisfactory) is now only slightly less than the Bank (90%)

And the quality of supervision of agriculture and rural projects (95% satisfactory) is better than the Bank (90%)

Projects under implementation 7% of agriculture and rural development projects in problem

status; average for all Bank projects is 10%

10% of agriculture and rural projects at risk compared to 15% for all Bank projects

Page 22: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Quality Closed projects According to OED ratings of closed projects:

Agriculture and RD (ARSB) 4 points higher than the Bank for outcome (87% satisfactory in FY04 compared to 83% for all Bank projects)

A major improvement over the 64% satisfactory for rural projects in the FY99-2001 period and prior.

Page 23: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

The analytical products

Agriculture Water issues and approaches - Sourcebook

Agriculture - Directions in development

Rural Finance - Approach Paper

Agriculture and MDGs

Macroeconomic links to forestry

IPM approach paper

Water for food - Directions in development

Innovation in managing agriculture production risk in developing countries

Innovations in rural finance

Managing the challenges of the livestock revolution

Gender issues and best practices in land administration projects

Sustainable Land management

Page 24: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Analytical work at country level increasing

Economic and sector work increasing (23 country Rural Development strategies and water CASs), and rural content of CASs improving (73% of CASs satisfactory from rural/agriculture viewpoint)

Page 25: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

CONTROVERSY 1: HOW TO STIMULATE RURAL DEVELOPMENT

IN AFRICA?

South Asia Farmer

sMargin

al Land

5050%%

2222%%

2020%%

8%8%

Landless Rural Poor

Urban Poor

Pastorists/Fishers

232300

1111551515

55

202000

6600

4400

East AsiaRest of

Asia

SSA

Latin America

North Africa & Middle East

What do the hungry do?What do the hungry do?Hunger is increasing in Africa, Hunger is increasing in Africa, decreasing in Asiadecreasing in Asia

Page 26: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Nutrient Cereal

Wheat Rice Irrigation Use Tractors Production million ha million t millions million t

Can the Asian Green Revolution be duplicated in Can the Asian Green Revolution be duplicated in Africa?Africa?

M ha / % area

Adoption ofModern varieties

1961 0 / 0% 0 / 0% 87 2 0.2 3091970 14 / 20% 15 / 20% 106 10 0.5 4631980 39 / 49% 55 / 43% 129 29 2.0 6181990 60 / 70% 85 / 65% 158 54 3.4 8582000 70 / 84%100 / 74% 175 70 4.8 962

Source: FAOSTAT, July 2002 and author’s estimated on modern variety adoption, based on CIMMYT and IRRI data.

Page 27: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

One Answer is to diversify Smallholder One Answer is to diversify Smallholder Agriculture Agriculture and Incomeand Income in Africa in Africa

Improve basic foodsImprove basic foods

I

Integrate livestockIntegrate livestock

Add agro-processingAdd agro-processing

Include cash cropsInclude cash crops

Page 28: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT WILL WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN AFRICABE IMPORTANT IN AFRICA

Africa has the potential to irrigate 20% of its arable land

Only 4% is currently irrigated

Small-scale irrigation systems generally are the most cost- effective

Focus on high potential countries for irrigation; Ethiopia, Sudan, all Sahel, South Africa, Malawi, Botswana, Zimbabwe,

Page 29: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

NetherlandsVietnam

JapanUnited Kingdom

ChinaFrance

BrazilUnited Status

IndiaMéxico

South AfricaCubaBenin

MalawiEthiopia

MalíBurkina Faso

NigeriaTanzania

Mozambique GuineaGhana

UgandaKg/ha

Source: FAOSTAT, July 2005

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Consumption of fertilizer nutrients per hectare of arable land is very low in Africa

(2002)

Page 30: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Part of the solution will be to build Smallholder Input Retailer Systems

Business development assistance

Multiple products & services

Commercial credit lines

Technical advisory services

Contract service provider

Page 31: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Making Markets Work for SmallholdersMaking Markets Work for Smallholders

Inputs Storage

ProcessingProcessing MarketingMarketing

Page 32: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Example: Smallholder Seed Example: Smallholder Seed SectorSector

MainlyPublic SectorR & D

GermplasGermplasmm

DevelopmDevelopmententIPIP

Public-Private PartnershipsPublic-Private Partnerships

Foundation Foundation Seed Seed

ProductionProduction

FarmerFarmerSeed Seed

ProductionProductionDistributioDistributio

nn

Private enterprise,

with IP licensing

Mixed NGOs,

farmers’ assn.,private

growers

Private dealers, NGOs,

farmers’ assn.,private

growers

Page 33: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Km KmUSA 20,987 Guinea 637France 12,673 Ghana 494Japan 9,102 Nigeria 230Zimbabwe 1,586 Mozambique 141South Africa 1,402 Tanzania 114Brazil 1,064 Uganda 94India 1,004 Ethiopia 66China 803 Congo, DR 59

Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, 2002

Kilometers of paved roads per million people in selected countries

Solving Infrastructure ProblemSolving Infrastructure Problem

Page 34: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Beginnings of success in Africa?

Examples of good recent projects include: Irrigation rehabilitation and Water User Associations in

Mali and Nigeria Natural disaster mitigation in Southern Africa (maybe) Bringing the private sector to agriculture services in

Senegal Rural financial services in Ghana and Tanzania Community participation in agriculture service

management in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania Commodity risk mitigation in Tanzania using insurance

instruments, and in Malawi using hedge instrument New Fisheries Investments in Guinea Bissau, Senegal Rockefeller Foundation use of retail outlets to sell inputs Agriculture policy reform in Uganda and Mali

Page 35: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Controversy 2: Reforming Development Assistance to Agriculture and Rural Development

Increase coordinated donor support for African investment in R&D, land reform, irrigation, food security, soil improvement, infrastructure, non-farm rural enterprise, high value agriculture.

Donors to support community driven development, private sector and other non-government efforts, not just government programs

Donors to help countries reduce vulnerability to shocks; safety nets, including by improving food aid delivery mechanisms, introduction of market based approaches

Help with market reforms, while advocating tariff and subsidy reform in own (industrial) country

Donor support to be sustained for longer periods

More vigorous support for Global Donor platform and expanded country pilots?

Page 36: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Controversy regarding food insecurity and food self-sufficiency

Food Aid as solution for malnutrition and hunger Pro: if food availability is insufficient (e.g. humanitarian

emergencies), donors should send food to save lives; food is human right

Con: Food aid is a disincentive to invest in agriculture and reduces farmers’ income in the recipient country; and food aid disrupts marketing channels (prevents market development)

School Food Programs Con: earlier intervention from pregnancy to the 1st two

years of life is more effective in dealing with under-nutrition in children. School feeding is too late.

Pro: easiest and fastest way to get food to children

Agricultural biotechnology - GMOs Pro: (1) food & nutritional benefits, (2) increased

production, (3) reduced post-harvest losses, (4) health benefits (China Bt cotton) (The Bank generally supports this position)

Con: (1) environmental risks and expensive, (2) innovation has most benefited large farmers, (3) lack of capacity to regulate in many developing countries

Page 37: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Controversy on Trade and Subsidy reform

Developing countries’ agricultural exports to rich countries have stagnated, as has agricultural trade between developing countries

TRADE FLOWS

1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 Agriculture Total 35.4 32.2 36.3 To Developing 9.5 8.9 13.4 To Industrialized 25.8 23.3 22.9 Manufacturing Total 19.3 22.7 33.4 To Developing 6.6 7.5 12.3 To Industrialized 12.7 15.2 21.1 Source: COMTRADE

Page 38: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Largely because Agricultural Tariffs Remain Much Higher Than Manufacturing tariffs in virtually all countries

Figure 1: Average tariffs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

East Asia Eur. & C.Asia

Lat. Amer. Mid-East& N. Afr.

South Asia Sub-Sah.Afr.

Industrial

Percent

Agriculture and food

Manufactures

Source: GTAP release 6.03

Page 39: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

The Trade solution?

All research agrees on the need for industrial countries to remove agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies to stimulate developing country agri. trade

But industrial countries have not done it. What needs to be done to get this industrial country policy change?

Should developing countries also reduce agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies, despite industrial country resistance? Pro: this would reduce food prices to consumers and

stimulate agricultural trade between developing countries thereby stimulating agric. Growth (the Bank’s position)

Con: this would invite dumping of agricultural products by industrial countries (many developing countries hold this view)

Page 40: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Land Tenure Controversy

Issue: land quality and size are typically highly unequal in distribution. Are land re-distribution programs the answer (recent programs in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Eastern Europe; and past programs in Latin America)?

One view: re-distribution of land will help poor farmers. Otherwise marginal farmers will stay marginal, poor and hungry

Another view: Government’s land distribution programs are usually political and don’t succeed. Best is to invest directly in small farms and encourage investment in rural non farm enterprise to create employment

The Bank has found that market based approaches, land registration and tenure security systems work well. WB has $ 1 billion portfolio (Salvador, Honduras, ECA, East Asia)

Page 41: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Controversy: Does government intervention in agriculture markets actually make sense; based on failure of private sector to invest in mktg and agro-business?

Pro: Governments are the main instruments of change in conservative societies. Government’s investments in agricultural research, extension, education, credit and infrastructure are vital for development in rural areas – leading to income growth and nutrition improvement.

Private sector does not risk investing significantly in developing country mktg and input supply

Con: Governments botch it. Leave it to the market, or to public-private partnerships. Agriculture increasingly demand driven by consumer through supermarket or other market. Government supply driven marketing and processing increasingly un-responsive. Governments to enable market development, and invest in complementary infrastructure, regulation, safety standards, R & D.

Page 42: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

World Water and Food to 2025, 2002

Controversy: Water Consumption projected to Increase during 1995 to 2025. Will it be resolved through investment, or conservation, or better management, or all three? And what impact climate change?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Irrigation Livestock Industrial HouseholdIncr

ease

in w

ater

con

sum

ptio

n (%

)

Developed

Developing

Page 43: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Per capita water availability is a problem, to be exacerbated by climate change

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

Asia

MEast & NAfrica

Th

ou

sa

nd

m3

World

Page 44: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Climate/rainfall Variability & Economic GrowthClimate/rainfall Variability & Economic Growth

Risk of recurrent Risk of recurrent droughtdrought

Natural legacy: Natural legacy: extreme climate variabilityextreme climate variability

10/97 – 2/98 Flood Infrastructure Damage $2.39 b10/98 –5/00 Drought Crop loss $0.24 b

Livestock loss $0.14 bReduction in hydropower $0.64 b

Reduced industrial prod. $1.39 bTOTAL $2.41 b $2.39 b

10/97 – 05/00 Cost of Climate Variability $4.8 b

Approx (annual) GDP ($9 b/yr) $22 bImpact as % GDP/annum 22%

Kenya: variability & shock

Page 45: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

year

pe

rce

nta

ge

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

year

pe

rce

nta

ge

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

YearsR

eal

GD

P g

row

th (

%)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Vari

ab

ilit

y i

n R

ain

fall

(M

ete

r)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993

Economy-wide impacts

Page 46: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Water storage in m3/cap

43746

1,287 1,406

2,486

3,255

4,729

6,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Eth

iop

ia

So

uth

Afr

ica

Th

aila

nd

La

os

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Au

stra

lia

No

rth

Am

eric

a

Water storage and the poverty trap

Water availability versus storage

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

storage/ capita (m3)

wit

hd

raw

al/

cap

ita (

m3)

Ethiopia

S. Africa

SpainAustralia • Stable pop. & GDP, raising

Ethiopia’s storage to South Africa (12% of USA) ~ 6 X GDP

• Or 5% of GDP for over 100 yrs

Page 47: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty

Incom

e p

er

cap

ita

Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India

Page 48: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

10 countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, (Eritrea), Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda

300 m people (600m 2025)Extreme:

poverty: 4 of 10 poorestclimate variability and climate change impactlandscape vulnerability

Very limited infrastructure….

Nile Basin Initiative

Page 49: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Eastern Nile: 170 million; conflict & historical tension; nothing flows…

An Emerging Deal on the Nile…

Eastern Nile: peace, trade, joint investment, prosperity …

Egypt: water security; hydro/gas substitution, flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation

Sudan: major flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation, irrigation, power, navigation…

Ethiopia: major hydropower generation, watershed management, irrigation, storage, FDI…

Page 50: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Tropical forests disappearing rapidly despite donor investment, NGO advocacy, regulatory reform. How to stop this?

Huge expansion of World Bank activity in Forests: Renewed IFC commitment: From $45 million in FY01 to $300

million in FY05

Strong donor partnerships and have been formed PROFOR financed 22 forest activities in FY04; WWF-WB alliance 90 forest activities with targets for protected

areas being met Targets for sustainable logging likely to be met

Bank engagement in Congo Basin, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Honduras, and forest lending increasing ($ 319 m in FY05 and 06) . Increasingly using community owned and managed forests, in partnership with forest service and logging industry

But controversy remains: NGOs find too much logging, illegal harvesting, agricultural encroachment

Issue: are we on the right track, but need much more funding and commitment for forest projects and programs to have impact?

Or is there a fundamental flaw in the approach? Are the NGOs correct that banning logging in much wider areas and banning agricultural incursion is likely to have bigger impact?

New Concept of Avoided Deforestation (with the Nature Conservancy – using carbon offset funding)

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What to do about rural finance: given the failure of agriculture credit loans through state owned banks

Financial cooperative / credit union system developed. Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Albania

Specialized rural finance institution founded Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Mauritania

Linking commercial banks to village level financial associations Moldova

Leasing Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Romania, Pakistan, Uganda, Madagascar

Restructuring of State-Owned Agricultural Banks Mongolia, Tanzania, Latvia

Product Offerings Develop loan products appropriate for specific purposes (short-term,

group loans, longer-term flexible agricultural loans) Simple and easily accessible savings products insurance products

Creating Effective Demand Matching grants for asset creation Offer of savings facilities to create equity Support all along the supply chain

Page 52: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

The livestock Revolution is underway with increasing consumption of livestock products, and consequent problems

Spatial concentration of livestock around urban areas has led to: Large areas with Nitrogen and Phosphate overloads, causing

water and air pollution Closer contact between men and livestock causing emergence

of new diseases (Avian Flu) Large population of highly vulnerable livestock (Foot and Mouth

Disease)

Exacerbated by weak enforcement of environmental and health regulations, and non-vaccination

Proposed actions

At global level: Increase awareness of environmental and public health issues,

stressing global public good element, and interest of developed countries in protecting their own livestock from diseases spilling over from developing countries

Strengthen international disease alert systems and explore alternative disease control systems

At national level

Develop planning, regulatory and incentive systems, which bring livestock production more in line with absorptive capacity of surrounding eco-systems

Strengthen veterinary services, emergency preparedness

Page 53: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

Land degradation continues despite donor and government investment

Land degradation problem is severe and growing with negative impacts on productive lands and ecosystem services.

Climate change is likely to severely reduce land and water productivity in many countries (especially Africa) and result in further land degradation.

Significant “practice gap” and huge scope to apply existing “best practice” to address land management problems in all regions.

Lack of land ownership, poor access to knowledge and lack of appropriate incentives are major factors constraining best practice uptake.

Make rehabilitation of degraded lands a poverty reduction priority and introduce land rehab projects

Develop and implement innovative knowledge (best practice) dissemination mechanisms for land users and policy makers.

Develop and implement incentives for good land management such as payments for ecosystem services (e.g. carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation) to facilitate uptake of best practices and to promote synergies with adaptation to climate change, biodiversity conservation, and watershed resilience to environmental and economic shocks

Introduce land administration projects more widely

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SUMMARY of Corporate Priorities in the three sectors

Promote market driven development Trade Liberalization and agricultural subsidy reduction Introduce an enabling agriculture policy and regulatory

environment (including standards setting) for private invest Targeted support for private sector and market development;

through entire market chain, up to supermarkets; build demand side

Work more effectively with IFC agro-business and forest teams as well as the private sector and other donors

Empower rural people, including farmers Land security and redistribution (community based land reform,

land registration and titling) Decentralized and accountable public services (ICT, regulatory) Capacity building for local groups and farmer organizations

(WUAs, herders associations, trade associations) Reducing risk and vulnerability for farmers and the supply chain

broadly Nutrition and household food security Rural finance Invest in activities which create off-farm rural work (agro

industry, agricultural services, rural infrastructure

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Priorities continued

Develop water resource management strategies at country, basin, and project levels. Expand new style irrigation and drainage, and rural water investments; including efficiency of water use, env. and social concerns, private investment in water

Invest in infrastructure, education, rural energy, and health through public-private partnerships

Support international agriculture research through CGIAR and other partners, and in partnership with NARs. Pluralism, competition, contracting, demand driven

Sustainable management (and recovery) of land resources

Forestry – Continue protected area targets, expand forest certification, pursue good logging practices, incorporate forest concerns in development policy lending, and pursue forest law enforcement; expand IFC involvement

Implement the new fisheries strategy (conservation of ocean fisheries and coastal marines, support small scale local fisheries, develop aqua-culture

Page 56: Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006

World Bank Corporate Challenges in Agriculture and Rural Development

Further progress needed in getting agriculture, rural development, forests onto the bigger donor agenda (PRSPs, CASs, PRSCs, lending program), particularly in Africa

Balancing multi-sector and development policy lending which includes RD; with sector investment

Use wider variety of instruments (grants, trust funds, other donors, NGOs, Global Programs, private sector)

Scale up better (we drop good projects at project completion)

Can we deliver an expanded lending agenda with stagnating staff levels in the agriculture and rural development family, and in partner organizations?

Agriculture, RD, forests and water could be a pilot for improved business planning for global programs. Can we operate like a Bank-wide product group, or will we continue to be fragmented into separate mini regional and anchor ARD groups?