Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis for Food Securityfor Food Security

Proposal Submitted toProposal Submitted to National Food Security Mission National Food Security Mission

Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture

By NCAER, New DelhiBy NCAER, New DelhiSeptember 7, 2011September 7, 2011

The Backdrop

• Changing conditions: weather, global outlook, policies

• Need for monitoring agricultural situation as it affects farm income and consumer welfare

• Diverse and wide ranging data: Need for integration

Available Information

• Weekly weather reports• Weekly wholesale prices• Monthly consumer prices (with considerable lag)• Imports and exports (more lag)• Input availability/ prices• Area sown• Crop yields• Crop output• Market arrivals, mandi prices• Procurement, distribution, stocks• Cost of production, consumption

Issues

• Lack of an integrated picture

• Lags in information

• Need for projections based on available data

• Projection of alternative scenarios for agriculture

Current models of reports

• Quarterly review of the economy: RBI, NCAER

• Mid Year Review: Ministry of Finance

• Economic Survey: Ministry of Finance

• Annual Global Agricultural Outlook: FAO-OECD

• Kharif/ Rabi reports: Ministry of Agriculture, CACP

Objectives of the proposal

• To bridge this gap in analytical inputs for understanding the emerging agricultural scenarios both in the short term of one or two quarters and also in the medium to longer term.

• Focus on information relating to inputs, output and markets for the major agricultural products to provide an assessment of emerging Agricultural Outlook in the economy.

• The proposal will focus on food crops, given the significance of achieving food security for India’s large population.

Activities

• To present an analysis of the prevailing scenario for Indian agriculture on regular and periodic basis through quarterly and semi-annual reports

• To provide a briefing on the prevailing conditions affecting agriculture to both officials in the Ministry of Agriculture and also other stake-holders including state level participants at periodic intervals and

• In both the cases above, to address one or two selected specific issues for more intensive analysis

Output of the study

• Quarterly Agricultural Situation Report

• Semi-annual Agricultural Outlook and Scenario Analysis Report– State level perspectives where feasible– Use of district level information where feasible

• Monthly briefings: The common agenda in the meetings would be to review the latest information on the food sector and then a special topic. The general focus will be on “Food Security” in all these briefings.

Illustrative formats: Quarterly Situation reports

• Previous quarter, present quarter and projections for the year

– Input conditions: seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, machinery, credit

– Enabling conditions: rainfall, other weather conditions, reservoir levels, pest incidence

– Infrastructure– Crop area, crop yields

Illustrative formats: Quarterly Situation reports (Concl.)

• Previous quarter, present quarter and projections for the year

– Market conditions for output: international prices; market arrivals; prices

– Government operations in food sector

– Crop output outlook

Illustrative formats: Semi-annual outlook reports

• Projections for the current year and next 4-5 years under alternative scenarios:

– Crop area and prices– Input use and prices– Crop yields and output

Approach

• Review of presently available information

• Integration of available information for the purpose of assessment of emerging outlook

• Collection of additional supplementary information

• Development of models for forecasts and scenario analysis

• Capacity building

• Knowledge partnership

Conduct of the study

• Preparatory phase: 3 months

• Implementation stage: after the preparatory phase; scheduled quarterly and semi-annual reports and monthly briefings

• Advisory Committee to the study

• Duration: 3 years

Resources for the study

• Nodal contact points in the Ministry

• Study Team at NCAER

• Where necessary, we will also take the help of experts from other institutions

• Involvement of other research institutions

• Support of NFSM district level infrastructure

Financial resources

• 3-year project• To cover expenses of NCAER team and other

direct expenses• Resources of NFSM infrastructure to be provided

separately• Resources for involvement of other research

institutions to be provided separately

Thank You