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AGI Foresight StudyA Vision of the Geospatial industry in 2015

Andrew Coote

AGI Chairman

Prediction is very difficult,

especially about the future.

Neils Bohr (1885-1962)

Defining the Geospatial Market

• Information, processes, products and services where location is a significant component.

or

• Any endeavour where geospatial expertise can be used to the benefit of citizens, business and good governance

Paradigm Shifts

• Over last 20 years the industry has been changing but in relatively small increments – there were breakthroughs but their effects emerged at a rate businesses and Government could absorb and adapt to.

• What we are seeing now is the biggest paradigm shift the industry has seen in my professional career .

• Radical changes are occurring not just in technology but also in political and social attitudes.

• Furthermore, this is happening against a backdrop of economic turmoil.

• The industry will look a lot different in 5 years time.

What is different now?

• Pace of change (demise of the record industry: as we knew it)

• Speed of Communication (e.g. Twitter)

• Medium of Communication (television / newspapers -> web)

• Chips with everything (e.g. intelligent fridge)

• Globalisation (China has more internet users than the US)

• Artificial Intelligence (the web has a level of consciousness)

• Cultural Change

– Generation Y

– Work / Life balance

– Social networking

Globalisation in Action

Data and Technology

Geospatial Information is Pervasive

Position will be “always available” through Smartphones, RFID tags and other sensors.

The value to each application will be variable, but it will always be there.

Global Navigation Satellite System

Source: klipsi.ch

“Multi-constellation GNSS providing 100 satellites will meancentimetre positioning is commonly achievable in a

mobile environment.” Alan Dodson

Sub-metre accuracy 3D data is available for all urban areas

“Imagery becomes a commodity, viewed and distributed on the web almost for free. The mass market is removed

and specialist capture returns”. Andy Wells

Earth Observation Satellites

“By 2015 governmental organisations will operate over 200 EO satellites carrying 385 different instruments.

Turning data from such a range of systems into information calls for a corresponding range of scientific and technical

competencies.” Alan Belward

Cloud Computing:the dominant delivery mechanism

“Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related services will be able to focus on what the service provides them rather

than how the services are implemented or hosted.” Gartner (2009)

Location based Services

“Mainstream consumer-focused location aware smartphones and related location based services will make significant inroads

into the enterprise, significantly reducing the cost and effort required for many mobile applications.” Peter Batty

Augmented Reality

Open Source Geospatial Software

GRASS

OpenLayers

“In 5 years time, Open Source Geospatial won't be a

niche or a specialism, it will be a standard way that

things are done.” Jo Cook

Crowd sourcing

“Five years ago OpenStreetMap didn't exist, so forecasting the

future of crowd sourced data feels particularly futile.”

“However, the UK is predicted to be complete,

at the street level, in 14 months time.”

“There will be more than 1,000,000 users in much less

than five years time.” Chris Osborne

OpenStreetMap

Geomatics

“I can envisage a large market for 3D point cloud data from lidar combined with mobile scanning by ground vehicles.” Richard Groom

Semantic Web

Google will parse complete natural language

sentences in a single query – Gary Gale

Geospatial in Political Debate

Courtesy of Ed Parsons

Some Resulting Challenges• We need to discard the location-specific baggage and embrace being in the

mainstream of ICT.

• Adjust our business models to ensure we survive and prosper alongside

Google and other emerging global players.

• Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage of

their expertise.

• Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts.

• Take location information into significant applications, e.g. climate change,

participatory democracy, mega city planning

• Improve how we communicate with end users who don’t understand maps.