CSLI Advisory Board

Feb. 10, 2011

Agenda Call to order Committee reports Review of ongoing activities Review/discuss Fall 2010 survey Review/discuss proposed Spring 2011 Survey Any other new/old business Adjournment

Center for the Study of Local IssuesAnne Arundel Community College

101 College ParkwayArnold, MD 21012-1895http:www2.aacc.edu/csli

ddnataf@aacc.edu410.777.2733

1. Housing Commission of Anne Arundel County – 2010-11

Client: Provides housing for low income families and seniors in eight communities◦ Type of survey: Resident satisfaction and facility condition

– used for planning, oversight and HUD accreditation purposes

◦ Methodology: Self-administered at each community. Residents fill them out at the time of contract renewal, producing a quarterly stream of completed surveys for CSLI to use for data entry and report generation.

◦ N=Varies by community◦ Current status: Waiting for next quarter’s questionnaires.◦ Income generated: Overall $5100, retained for CSLI

operations: $5100. ◦ Students employed: 0-1

CSLI Recent Activities-Client Projects

2. Fire Department – Strategic Planning Survey

Client: Provides fire and EMT services for county residents ◦ Type of survey: Measures citizen awareness, operational

trade/off preferences, satisfaction. ◦ Methodology: Telephone (landline only).◦ N=311 ◦ Current status: Completed◦ Income generated: Overall $5000, retained for CSLI

operations: $558 ◦ Students employed: 10-15

CSLI Recent Activities-Client Projects

3. Police Department – Accreditation Survey

Client: Provides public safety for county residents ◦ Type of survey: Identical to previous surveys – citizens’

perceptions of police professionalism and effectiveness, seriousness of crimes..

◦ Methodology: Telephone (landline only).◦ N=Around 350-400 ◦ Current status: Starts Feb. 14.◦ Income generated: Overall $5000, retained for CSLI

operations: $600 (estimated) ◦ Students employed: 10-15

CSLI Recent Activities-Client Projects

4. Radcliff Scholarship Survey of recipients

Client: AACC Foundation/Entrepreneurial Studies◦ Type of survey: Asks about impact of scholarship,

recipients’ current circumstances.◦ Methodology: Multi-modal – mail, email, Facebook,

telephone◦ N=49 of 86 (57% response rate)◦ Current status: Completed◦ Income generated: Overall $1600, retained for CSLI

operations: $900◦ Students employed: 1-2

CSLI Recent Activities-Client Projects

5. Coordinating Center Client: Provides medical coordinating services for severely

ill patients◦ Type of survey: Customer satisfaction◦ Methodology: Mailed with telephone follow-up and second

mailing if needed.◦ N= 690 ◦ Current status: Completed◦ Income generated: Overall $2860, retained for CSLI

operations: $1330 ◦ Students employed: 4-5

CSLI Recent Activities-Client Projects

1. CSLI student interns ◦ Spring 2011: 2◦ Hours: vary depending on projects and needs of the moment but

goal is to average five hours per week per intern◦ Duties: range from data entry, survey design, student supervision,

and telephone interviewing.

2. Legislative Interns – Maryland General Assembly

◦ Spring 2011: 10◦ Hours: 15-20 hours a week◦ Duties: Work with members of the General Assembly in various

capacities◦ Other internships – does your area of work have any need

for student interns?

CSLI Recent Student-related Activities

3. CSLI student club ◦ Inception: 2006 – designated an official student club. ◦ Organizational structure: Officers include president, vice

president, secretary and treasurer, elected at beginning of fall semester. CSLI interns usually chosen as club president/vice president

◦ Budget: Varies yearly–2010-11: $1115 from student association.

◦ 2010-11 Activities: Anticipate visits to Baltimore Council of Foreign Affairs; Annapolis

CSLI Recent Student-related Activities

Radio: WNAV – director was interviewed about CSLI fall research findings. Also on radio Nov. 2 for election analysis.

Presentations: Director made presentations to Elephants Club, 33rd Democratic Club, Almost 7:30 Democratic Club, Leadership Anne Arundel, and Maryland Government Financial Officers Association. Panel discussion about surveys and local issues moderated by Paul Foer in Annapolis.

Newspaper: Various articles in Capital, Baltimore Sun and Washington Post.

CSLI Web site: Posted all new presentations and updates to searchable database (see http://www2.aacc.edu/csli).

CSLI Recent Activities-Public Outreach

Semi-annual Survey and Web PanelWeb panel: We have accumulated a total of around 715 possibly valid email addresses. ◦ About 1/3 of respondents accept request to give email

addresses.◦ Used to do pre-election polling in September.◦ Will be conducting a spring online survey composed with

student input.◦ Response rate typically around 25%.

CSLI Semi-Web Panel

Semi-annual Survey –

Overview of Spring 2011

Results

Polling Results for AA County

5754

58 5562

6660 61 62

58 5853

57 5551 52 51 50 52

4752 52 49

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26 29 27

33 32 3128 27 28 28

20 19 1720

1519

1418

13 1219 18 16 18 20 21

16 17 17

2521 20 23

Right 51

Wrong 34

Unsure 15

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp

'99

Fa

'99

Sp

'00

Fa

'00

Sp

'01

Fa

'01

Sp

'02

Fa

'02

Sp

'03

Fa

'03

Sp

'04

Fa

'04

Sp

'05

Fa

'05

Sp

'06

Fa

'06

Sp

'07

Fa

'07

Sp

'08

Fa

'08

Sp

'09

Fa

'09

Sp

'10

Fa

'10

Right Wrong Unsure

Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

AA County Polling Results: Most Important ProblemFall '04 to Fall '10

Fall '04 Spring '05

Fall '05 Spring '06

Fall '06 Spring '07

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Mean 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

7

12

8

23

38

48

3336 36

20

1013

10 10 9

1517 16

1210

12 1113 12

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /developmentEducation / Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs

AA County Polling Results:

Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009

S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10Anne Arundel County Maryland USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

S'02

F '02 S '03

F '03 S '04

F '04 S '05

F '05 S '06

F '06 S '07

F '07 S '08

F '08 S '09

F '09 S '10

F '100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 27

22

34 3431

28

3842

32

27

17

5 510 11 11

7476

56 56

62

74 7471

7471 71 69

55

4946 48

44 45

CSLI - AA County

Gallup - USA

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Unabl

e to

find

affor

dabl

e ho

usin

g

Wag

es o

r sal

arie

s are

not

risin

g as

fast

as t

he co

st o

f liv

ing

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of t

rans

porta

tion

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of u

tiliti

es suc

h as

ele

ctric

ity o

r gas

Taxe

s are

too

high

in re

latio

n to

gov

ernm

ent s

ervi

ces p

rovi

ded

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

50

58

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Some costs have gone down

The economy: what else applies?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

6

35

15

71

4

30

24

75

6

51

29

24

70

8

46

33

19

56

7

47

32

21

60

7

44

34

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Unemployment rose sharply from March ‘08 to March ‘09 and hasn’t changed much since

Stock market recovery lessened ‘losses’ percent-age

Health care anxiety un-changed despite re-form…

Minor improvement in readiness to spend

State Issues: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor in NovemberCounty Results in 2006: Ehrlich 56.9 vs. O’Malley 42.0 percent GAP = 14.9

O’Malley won by 6.5 percent statewide in 2006County Results in 2010: Ehrlich 54.2 vs. O’Malley 43.4 percent GAP =10.8

O’Malley won by 14.5 percent statewide in 2006

Spring 2010 Fall 2010

All categs.

Some categs

All categs.

Some categs

Some w/o undecided

Average

GAP 12 14 11 13 17 13.4

O’Malley 35 43 29 32 42 36.2

Ehrlich 47 57 40 45 59 49.6

Other 3 0 2 0 0 --

Undecided 0 0 22 24 0 --

Neither 5 0 1 0 0 --

Unsure/NA 10 0 5 0 0 --

Total 100 100 99 101 101 --

Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

8000066972

-2254

-28743-20788

-53215

-27581

-21963

Dem – Rep Vote for GovernorSchaeffer 83%Mooney 17%

Schaeffer 49%Shepard 51%

Glendening 40%Sauerbrey 60%

Glendening 43%Sauerbrey 57%

KK Townsend 35%Ehrlich 65%

O’Malley 42%Ehrlich 57%

O’Malley 43%Ehrlich 54%

O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit

County Executive Vote 1994-2010

1994 1998 2002 2006 20100

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

5761563879

83305

9353397465

54899

87676 8945689613

85040

10486

RepDemOther

2716 23987 6151 392012425

Including Shay -1930

GAP

Only a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates

2010 County Exec Race Over Time Nov.

2006June 2010

Online Poll

Sept.2010

OnlinePoll

October 11-14, 2010

Nov. 2

Candidate ActualVote

All Categories

All Categories

All categories

Exclude some

Exclude all

except voters

ActualVote

Gap 2 22/31 26 13 14 22 6.5Johnson/Conti

49 30 (Owens)

23 (Conti)

28 21 24 37 44.0

Leopold 51 52/54 54 34 38 59 50.5Other -- 15/16 10 2 3 -- 5.4Undecided -- -- -- 32 35 -- --Neither -- 4/7 9 2 -- -- --Unsure -- -- -- 10 -- -- --Total 101/100 101 100 101 100

Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…

How informed

County Executive

Governor

Very 15 35

Somewhat 36 48

Not very 49 17

Total 100 100

How informed are you about candidates’ stands on various issues?

  On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?

 Issue Conti Leopold

L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know

enough

Undec.+ don’t know enough

Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall

10 17 7 1 27 4673

Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66

Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 4465

Maintaining high ethical standards

17 17 0 3 24 3963

Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62

Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62

Making County government more efficient

12 29 17 2 21 3758

Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57

Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56

Having the right experience for the job

11 32 21 1 21 3556

Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55

Encouraging economic development

13 31 18 1 18 3755

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)

  Conti Leopold L-C Shay UndecidedDon’t know

enough

U

Undecided/Don’tknow

enough

Having the right experience for the job

11 32 21 1 21 35 56

Encouraging economic development

13 31 18 1 18 37 55

Making County government more efficient

12 29 17 2 21 37 58

Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56

Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55

Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62

Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall

10 17 7 1 27 46 73

Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 44 65

Maintaining high ethical standards

17 17 0 3 24 39 63

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)

State/County Issue: Slots at Arundel Mills

Opponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort?

Position Spring ‘10

Fall ‘10

Actual

GAP 0 0 11Support 45 42 55.5Oppose 45 42 44.5Unsure 7 16 --No answer 2 -- --Total 99 100 100

Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel.  An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location.

National Issues: % approving of president’s job by party

2824

5347 47

42

9 6

7972 69

6257

43

2517

24 2519

24

53 53 52

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sp. '08 Fa. '08 Sp '09 Fa. '09 Sp '10 Fa '10

Overall

Democrats

Republicans

Indep

Bush Obama

National Issues: Presidential job approval

39 34 3528 24

5347 47

37 33 32 30 25

6154

47 42

41

010203040506070

CSLI Gallup

Go to Questionnaire in MS Word

End of PowerPoint presentation