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Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
Sep. 2013
Agency for Natural Resources and EnergyMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) JapanDirector-General for Energy and Environmental Policy
Osamu Goto
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
1
Table of Contents1. Energy Policy2. Nuclear3. LNG4. Renewable Energies5. Electricity System Reform
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
2
1. Energy Policy
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
75%
Japan’s Energy Supply Structure
3%
4%
23%
22%
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear powerHydro
Coal
Renewables etc.
* “Renewables etc.” consists of solar power (0.1%), wind power (0.2%), geothermal heat (0.1%), and biomass (3.3%).
4%*
43%
Source: Prepared based on “Comprehensive Energy Statistics” issued by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.”
(in crude oil equivalent kL)
3
Japan’s Primary Energy Supply
First Oil Shock
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Trends in Final Energy Consumption in Japan
Sources: “Comprehensive Energy Statistics” and “Annual Report on National Accounts.”
(millions kL of crude oil equivalent)
Transport sector
Residential & Commercial sector
Industry sector
(¥trillions)
Final energy consumption
1973→2011
1.3-fold growth
Transport
1973 2011
1.9-fold growth
Residential &
C
omm
ercial
1973 2011
2.5-fold growth
Industry
1973 2011
0.9-fold growth
Real GDP1973 2011
2.4-fold growth
23.3%
33.8%
42.8%
16.4%
18.1%
65.5%
4
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
Japan is poorly endowed with energy resources, which are indispensable to economic and social activities. To meet the changing economic and energy situation of the time at home and abroad, Japan has reviewed its energy policy in order to ensure “energy security,” “economic efficiency,” and the “environment.”
Energy security
Energy security
Economic efficiency
Energy security EnvironmentEconomic
efficiency
Energy security EnvironmentEconomic
efficiency
1973: First oil shock
1970s
1990s
2000s
+
+ +
+ +
[(4) Enhancing resource security (2000s)]
[(1) Responding to the oil crises (1970s-80s)]
1980s[(2) Promoting regulatory reform (since 1990s)]
[(3) Coping with global warming issues (since 1990s) ]
[(5) Current Basic Energy Plan]
1979: Second oil shock
1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted2005: Kyoto Protocol came into effect
Enhanced resource security
2002: Basic Act on Energy Policy enacted2003: Basic Energy Plan established (revised in 2007 and 2010) 5
3Es=
History of Japan’s Energy Policy
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
○The current Basic Energy Plan anticipates the increase of the energy self-sufficiency rate (18% 40%) and the zero-emission power source ratio (renewable energy: about 10% 20%, nuclear power: about 30% 50%) by 2030
Oil13%
Oil2%
LNG28%
LNG 13%
Coal25%
Coal11%
Nuclear26%
Nuclear53%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2007年度実績 2030年推計
Total: 10,305Total: 10,200
Oil39% Oil
27%
LPG3%
LPG3%
Natural gas:19%
Natural gas:16%
Coal23%
Coal17%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007年度実績 2030年推計
(M
illio
n kL
cru
de o
il eq
uiva
lent)
Current energy self-sufficiency ratio: 18%
Energy self-sufficiency ratio in 2030: about 40%
Total: 592
Total: 517
(100 million kWh)
【Generated output】
Zero-emission power source: 34%
Zero-emission power source: about 70%
Nuclear:10%
Nuclear: 24%
【Primary energy supply】
Renewables, etc.6%
Renewables, etc:13%
Renewables, etc: 9%
Renewables, etc:21%
2007 record 2030 estimate 2007 record 2030 estimate
Supply Forecast in the current Basic Energy Plan
6
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
7
○ Prime Minister’s direction to Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (January 25, 2013)・To review from scratch “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment” decided by the former administration and to establish a robust and responsible energy policy from various perspectives, including stable supply of energy, reduction of energy cost.
<Former Administration’s Statement>○ “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment” (September14, 2012)1. Realization of a Society Not Dependent on Nuclear Power in Earliest Possible
Future.・Japanese Government will mobilize all possible policy resources to such a level as to even enable zero operation of nuclear power plants in the 2030’s.
Dependence on Nuclear Power
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
8
○ Statement by Prime Minister Abe (Plenary Session of the House of Councilors on March 6, 2013)
• Regarding the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs), the administration will defer to the professional judgment of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA), so no NPP will be restarted unless the NRA assures its safety. On the other hand, once the safety of NPPs is assured by the NRA, the administration will respect its judgment and the NPPs will be restarted, from viewpoint of establishing a robust and responsible energy policy from various perspectives, including stable supply of energy, reduction of energy cost.
<Former Administration’s Statement>○ “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment” (September14, 2012)・…the operation of nuclear power plants whose safety is assured will be restarted as an important power source.
<Ref. Main activities of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA)>• Sep.19, 2012 : Established NRA• Nov.2, 2012~ : Investigation of Fracture Zone (at Ohi , Tsuruga ,and Tohoku-Higaashidori NPP)• Jul.18,2013 : Deadline of the enforcement of new Nuclear Regulation
(for Commercial power reactors)
Restart of Nuclear Power Plants
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
Establishment of the New Strategic Energy Plan
1. To formulate a responsible energy policy aimed at ensuring a stable supply of energy and lower energy costs, the New Strategic Energy Plan is being discussed in the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy from March 2013.
2. Based on the discussion in the committee, the Japanese government will establish the new Strategic Energy Plan by the end of this year.
9
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
10
2. Nuclear
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
11
●Mid-and-Long Term Roadmap towards the Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi NPP Units 1-4
Step 1, 2 Phase 1
December, 2011 Within 2 Years
<Achieved stable conditions>-Condition equivalent to
cold shutdown-Significant suppression
of emissions
Period to the start of fuel removalfrom the spent fuel pool (Within 2years)
Within 10 Years After 30-40 Years
Phase 2 Phase 3
Period to the start of fuel debrisremoval(Within 10 years)
Period to the end of decommissioning (after 30-40 years)
Actions towards systematic staff training and allocation, motivation improvement, and securing of workers’ safety will becontinuously implemented.
Current status of restoration from nuclear accident and next steps
To reduce risks,(i) removal of the fuel from the spent fuel pool and(ii) removal of the fuel debris will be carried out at the earliest possible time. According
to the condition of each unit, work processes will be accelerated and multiple planswill be formulated.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
12
Countermeasures for the contaminated ground water leakage at TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Contaminated ground water was detected in the area between the turbine buildings and plant port of the Fukushima Daiichi NPS.Fundamental countermeasures will be taken in several phases in addition to the immediate countermeasures.
Three principles for contaminated water countermeasures 1. Securing the source of the contamination2. Isolating ground water from the contamination source3. Preventing leakage of the contaminated water
Sea-side impermeable walls
Soil improvement
About 200m
About 500m
Ground water observation holeSub-drainGround water bypass
Pumping out the ground water for bypass
Unit 1〜4
Drain from the trench
Facing (paving the surface)
Mountain Side
Seaside
Ground w
ater flow
Overview of the countermeasures
Installation of land-side impermeable walls adopting the frozen soil method
Pumping out the ground
water by sub-drain
Current situation of the ground water
TEPCO estimates that the whole area of units 1 to 4 has approx. 1000 m3
of ground water flow every day and 400 m3 of this flows into the basement of the facility buildings. And some part of the other water is considered to be contaminated by the water in the trench and flows into the port through the soil.
No.2holes
No.3holes
No.1holes
Att. 3
○The nuclear power ratio in domestic electricity production has dramatically decreased due to long‐termshutoff of each Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) for periodical inspection after the quake disaster. (Oh‐I No. 3and 4 resumed in July, 2012.)
○ On the other hand, the thermal power generation ratio has increased up to 90%, especially LNG thermalwhich is about 50%.
○ And with the shutoff of NPP, replacement fuel costs from thermal generation are estimated to increase3.1 trillion Yen from FY2010 to FY2012. In FY2013, it is estimated that fuel costs will increase 3.8 trillionYen over FY2010 based on the assumption that $1 = ¥100 and the exchange rate and nuclear powerplant operation will be the same as in FY2012.
○ Trend of PWR Formation for Power Suppliers (general electricity utility and wholesale electricity utility) after Quake Disaster
Power Category
Fuel Cost(FY2012)
Cost Impact Amount
Estimation in FY2012
Estimation in FY2013 (※)
Nuclear ¥1/KWh ‐ 0.3 Trillion ¥ ‐ 0.3 Trillion ¥
Coal ¥4/KWh + 0.1 Trillion ¥ + 0.1 Trillion ¥
LNG ¥11/KWh + 1.4 Trillion ¥ + 1.6 Trillion ¥
Oil ¥16/KWh + 1.9 Trillion ¥ + 2.4 Trillion ¥
Total - + 3.1 Trillion ¥ + 3.8 Trillion ¥
○ Fuel Cost Increase from Nuclear Power Shutoff
20% 25% 26% 25%20% 27% 26% 26%
23%
38%41% 42% 47% 50%
46% 48% 48%
32%
5%
7%13%
17% 16% 13% 16% 18%
5%
28%16%
10% 5% 1% 1%3% 2%
32%
9% 11% 8% 5% 12% 12% 7% 6% 8%
63%73%
81% 90% 87% 87%90% 92%
28%
16% 10%5%
1% 1% 3% 2%
11年4月 7月 10月 12年1月 4月 7月 10月 13年1月 10年度
石炭火力発電比率 LNG火力発電比率 石油火力発電比率 原子力発電比率
水力発電等 火力発電比率 原子力発電比率
※ For FY2013, estimation was made on fuel cost used for FY2012estimate based on the assumption of nuclear power operation beingthe same as FY2012, and by correcting exchange rate in accordancewith recent rate, $1 = ¥100.
Apr., ’11 Jul. Oct. Jan., ’ 12 Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan.,‘13
FY10
Nuclear PWR RatioCoal Thermal PWR Ratio
Hydraulic PWR Ratio
LNG Thermal PWR Ratio
Thermal PWR Ratio
Oil‐Fired Thermal PWR Ratio
Nuclear PWR Ratio
Change in Power Formation and Fuel Costs after Quake Disaster
13
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
14
Discussion with academicsat the Commission of NRA
Review by experts* Listening to other academics and electric
utilities
Compile an outline of New Nuclear Safety Regulation (February 6)
Public Comment(until February 28)
Hearings from Experts,Electric utilities
(severe accident countermeasures only)
Draft texts of Nuclear Safety Regulation (April 10, 2013)
Public Comment (until May 10)
Publication・Enforcement (July, 2013)
Schedule of the Introduction of the New Nuclear Safety Regulation
Applications for restart were made in 12 reactors in 6 power-stations (as of Today)
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
15
There are 50 units of nuclear power plants in Japan. 48 units (in red) are in stoppage, and 2 units of them (in blue) are now in
operation.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2
1 2
1 32
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
1 2
1 2 3 4
11 2 3
1 32
1 2
NPP in operation
NPP in Stoppage
5 6
1 2 3 4
3 4 5
1 2 3
Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
Under review by NRA
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
16
3. LNG
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
17
○After the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japan’s LNG demand has increased by 30%due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants. (2010fy 70million tons → 2012fy 90million tons)
○In addition, Japan’s LNG import price, linked to crude oil import price, has soared.
○As a result, the overall cost of LNG imports to Japan has increased from 3.5 trillion yena year to around 6 trillion yen. ※1 trillion yen = $10.7 billion
Natural Gas price trend(unit: US dollar/MMBTU)
$3.5/MMBTU
$19.1/MMBTU
$15.8/MMBTU
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012
Japanese LNG Cost Nearly Doubled After Fukushima
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
18
Increasing in trade deficit, change of current account balance structure, acceleration of the hollowing out of manufacturing industry
Increased LNG and crude oil prices
Increased fuel imports due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants
Rapid increase in fuel import costs
Trade deficit in 2012(6.9 Trillion yen) wasthe lowest in history
Trade balance:‐13.6trillion yen (2010→2012)Increase in net imports of fossil fuels :+6.7 trillion yen(17.4→24.1)Crude oil :2.9 trillion yenLNG :2.5 trillion yenPetroleum products : 1.1 trillion yenCoal :0.2 trillion yen
Net reduction of exports in transportation equipment: 0.6 trillion yen
Other factors : 0.7 trillion yen(trillion yen)
Trade deficit in 2011was 2.6 Trillion yen
○The shut down of nuclear power plants and increasing LNG and crude oil prices have led to a rapid increase in fuel costs. In 2011, Japan recorded its 1st trade deficit in the last 31 years. Lowering the costs is an urgent task.
Changes in trade balance and current account balance
Current account surplus in 2012 was
4.7 Trillion yen
Fuel Import Cost Hitting Japanese Economy Hard
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
19
New area / businessUS, Russia, MozambiqueJapanese companies in the upstream (Australia)
Utilities changingStringent assessment on raising electricity tariff, focusing on fuel cost cutElectricity market reform: direction and roadmap released in FebruaryNuclear re‐start: new safety standard by NRA in July 2013
Supporting policies and measures 1 trillion yen loan guarantee program for cheaper LNG projects2nd LNG Producer / Consumer Conference @Tokyo, fall 2013India‐Japan Joint study, Korea‐Japan Gas dialogue
Developments in Japan towards cheaper gas
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
LNG Projects by Japanese Firms (USA)・Freeport LNG Project・Cove Point LNG Project・Cameron LNG project・Total LNG expected to be claimed by Japanese firms: 15 M Tons/ yr
Vladivostok LNG Project (Russia)・Under review by Gazprom and JFG (Itochu,
Marubeni, JAPEX, INPEX)・Production scheduled to start in 2018,
Max 15 M tons/ yrFar East LNG Project・Under study by Rosneft and Exxon・Production scheduled to start in 2018, 5M tons/yr・Use of gas from Sakhalin is under consideration
Rovuma Offshore Gas Field Area1 Project(Mozambique)・Under review by Mitsui Co. Ltd.(Japan) and Anadarko Petroleum (USA)
・Production expected to start after 2018.・Substantial portion of 10 M Tons/ yr is expected to be exported to Japan.
Ichthys LNG Project (Australia) ・Operated by INPEX. First large project to be led by a Japanese firm.・Production expected to start after end of 2016・6 M Tons/ yr to be exported to Japan
○By supporting upstream development projects by Japanese firms, we believe new projects will rise in countries such as Russia, Mozambique,etc. which will encourage competition among oil countries/suppliers leading to more competitive and stable supply.
○Also, in order to secure competitive and stable energy, we encourage end‐users such as electric power companies and gas companies to participate in upstream development.
Efforts to diversify supply source
20
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
21
4. Renewable Energies
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
22
Japan's Use of Renewable EnergyThe contribution of renewable energy (excluding hydro power) to the total power generation in Japan has covered around 1%. Since the launch of the Residential Surplus Electricity Purchasing Scheme for Photovoltaic Power in November 2009 and the Feed-in Tariff Scheme in July 2012, Japan's use of renewable energy, led by solar power, has steadily increased. Renewable energy accounted for 1.6% in FY2012.
* Created by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy using Electric Power Statistics, RPS data, buyback under the Feed-in Tariff Scheme, etc.
(Percentage to the total power generation)
Residential Surplus Electricity Purchasing SchemeFeed-in Tariff Scheme
Japan’s use of renewable energy in percentage
0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%0.1%0.2%
0.2%0.2%
0.3% 0.3%0.4%
0.4%0.5%
0.5%
0.3%0.3%
0.3%0.3%
0.3% 0.3%0.3%
0.3%
0.3%0.3%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.1%
0.1% 0.1%
0.1%0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%0.8%0.9%
0.9%1.0%
1.1%1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
16,000,000,000
18,000,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
太陽光
地熱
風力
バイオマス
再生可能エネルギー合計(水力除く)
SolarGeothermal WindBiomassTotal(excluding hydro)
RPS Scheme
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
(100 million kWh)
(FY)
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
23
Shifts in Japan's Measures to Increase Renewable Energy Use
Japan’s measures to increase the use of renewable energy shifted from (1) financial support through subsidies, (2) aid through placing an obligation on electric power companies to source part of their electricity from renewable sources (the RPS scheme), to (3) the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme that requires electric power companies to purchase electricity at fixed prices.
(1) Support through subsidies (1997–)Enactment of the Act on the Promotion of New Energy Usage (New Energy Act)
Provides partial financial aid to private companies implementing new-energy projects and guarantee on loans taken from financial institutions.Provides financial aid to local governments implementing new-energy projects.
(2) Support through placing an obligation (the RPS scheme) (2003–2012)Launch of the RPS Scheme in 2003
Requires electric power companies to source a specified proportion of their electricity from renewable sources (without fixed prices).
(3) Support through buyback at fixed prices (to give prospects for recovering investment) (2009–)Launch of the Residential Surplus Electricity Purchasing Scheme in 2009
Requires electric power companies to purchase home-generated solar power of less than 500 kW at the procurement price and for the procurement period set by the government.
Launch of the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) Scheme in 2012Requires electric power companies to purchase electricity produced from renewable sources, including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and biomass at the procurement price and for the procurement period set by the government.
Japan
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
24
Note: “Etc.” of “Renewable energy, etc.” includes the recovery of energy derived from waste, refuse derived fuel (RDF) products, heat supply utilizing waste heat, industrial steam recovery, and industrial electricity recovery.
Source: Prepared based on the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy’s “Outline of Electric Power Development in FY 2010”
Among the total electricity generated in fiscal 2011, renewable energy, etc. accounted for approximately 10.4%; approximately 9% of which is hydraulic power generation.Renewable energy other than hydro is still cost prohibitive.
Approx. 24%
Approx. 31%
Approx. 27%
Approx. 8%
Approx. 9% Approx. 1%
PetroleumCoal
Natural gas
Nuclear power
Hydropower
Renewable energy excluding hydropower
Natural gas
Coal
Approx. 25%
Petroleum
Approx. 14.4%
Nuclear power
Approx10.7%
Hydropower
Approx. 9%
Approx. 1.4%Renewable energy excluding hydropower
Approx39.5%
Composition of annual electricity generated in Japan
FY 2010 FY 2011
Current Composition of Power Sources in Japan
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryAgency for Natural Resources and Energy
25
5. Electricity System Reform
Problems Revealed by 3.11
Chugoku EPCO
Kansai EPCO
Hokuriku EPCO
Hokkaido EPCO
Tohoku EPCO
Kyushu EPCO
Chubu EPCO
Tokyo EPCO (TEPCO)
Okinawa EPCO
Shikoku EPCO
• Negative aspects of regional monopoly system were revealed:
1. Lack of options for consumers to choose suppliers, rate plans and power sources ; Necessity of using demand response
2. Necessity of using generation in an ascending order of electricity rates (merit order)
3. Necessity of using various power sources such as renewables and co‐generation (CHP); Lack of smooth connection of renewables to the grids
4. Lack of system to transmit electricity beyond regions
5. Necessity of establishment of system to transmit various type of power in a neutral and fair manner
26
Cabinet Decision on Electricity System Reform
• Based on the report by Expert Committee, the Cabinet decided to approve the Policy on Electricity System Reform on April 2, 2013.
• The reform aims to achieve three purposes:(1) Securing the stable supply of electricity(2) Suppressing electricity rates to the maximum extent possible(3) Expanding choices for consumers and business opportunities.
• To achieve these purposes, a dramatic reform will be steadily carried out according to a realistic schedule, focusing on the following 3 steps:
Step1: Establishment of the Organization for Nationwide Coordination of Transmission Operators (tentative title) (at around 2015);
Step2: Full liberalization of entry to electricity retail business (at around 2016); and
Step3: Further securing neutrality of the power transmission/distribution sector and full liberalization of retail electricity rates (at around 2018 through 2020)
27