African Development Report 2008/09

Conflict Resolution, Peace and Reconstruction in Africa

Dakar, May 10th 2009

Presented by :Léonce Ndikumana

Director, Research Department African Development Bank

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What do we know about the nature, causes and consequences of violent conflicts?

How can we use that knowledge to prevent and resolve conflicts, mitigate their consequences, build peace, and facilitate post-conflict reconstruction in Africa?

What is the role of the Bank in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction?

Key questionsKey questions

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Overview

Chapter 1: Explaining Violent Conflict

Chapter 2: The Consequences of Conflict

Chapter 3: Conflict Prevention, Resolution and Peace Building Strategies

Chapter 4: Policies for Post-Conflict Economic Recovery and Development

Chapter 5: Bank Support to Conflict-Affected Countries

Contents of the reportContents of the report

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Violent conflicts are mainly internal: inter-state wars have ended.

Some conflicts escalate into civil war involving a rebel movement.

Neighboring countries are sometimes involved.

There are often large civilian casualties.

The nature of violent conflictsThe nature of violent conflicts

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Violent conflicts have been declining in Africa and globallyViolent conflicts have been declining in Africa and globally

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Battle deaths, 1960-2005Battle deaths, 1960-2005

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Conflict risk factorConflict risk factor

Natural resources Low per capita incomeLow economic growthEthnic tensionsRough terrainPolitical repression InequalityFlawed democratization Legacies of colonialism & superpower rivalryConflict trap – a history of conflict increases risk of conflict

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Conflict triggers Conflict triggers

Regime change; military coups

Elections

Neighboring conflicts

Dramatic events

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Heavy death toll Heavy death toll

•Battle deaths;

• Deaths indirectly caused by war (malnutrition, diseases, etc.)

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African refugees by origin, 2006 African refugees by country of asylum, 2006

Refugees

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Internally displaced persons in Africa, 2006Internally displaced persons in Africa, 2006

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Other social consequences Other social consequences

Legacy effects War affects people’s lives long after the fighting has stopped through

diseases, trauma, and deprivation

Spillover effects Neighboring countries are affected through diseases, displacement and

increased risk of conflict

Children and girls Child soldiers – lost opportunities (schooling, employment); exploitation Girls and women are disproportionately affected: gender-based violence; &

victimization of victims

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Economic consequences of conflict Economic consequences of conflict

economic contraction

shortening of time horizons of policy makers and private actors (investors)

financial and human capital flight

changes in sectoral composition of GDP (some sectors are more vulnerable to conflicts)

increased military spending

destruction of infrastructure

poor policy

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Conflict prevention policies Conflict prevention policies

Equitable growth: reduces incentives for conflict

Strengthening democracy as a basis of social contract Protecting minority rights Constraints on the executive: separation of powers

Strengthening neighborhoods

Regional integration

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Conflict resolution & peace building tools Conflict resolution & peace building tools

Power sharing

Peace keeping

Transitional justice: Truth and reconciliation commissions International criminal court

Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration

Small arms control

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Some small arms control instrumentsSome small arms control instruments

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Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction

Economic policies help reduce the risk of conflictgrowth and employment creation are crucial for peace and recovery

Distinctive context for economic policy-making in post-conflict setting different objective: promote peace buildingdifferent context due to economic legacies of conflict

Resource-rich countries face two key concernsweak capacity to negotiate favorable terms with extraction companies increased scope for corruption

Public service delivery Institutions are weak and service delivery inefficientConsider an Independent Service Authority

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Aid can be critical to post-conflict economic recoveryAid can be critical to post-conflict economic recovery

Key issues

quality of aidefficiency of delivery mechanism: project versus budgetary

supportabsorptive capacityappropriate timing/schedulingconditionalities and allocation criteria need to be streamlinedaid is never apolitical: it tends to strengthen the government

vis-à-vis the opposition.

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Bank operations in conflict-affected countries Bank operations in conflict-affected countries

Strategic focus: help revive war-ravaged economies by: reestablishing the framework of good governance rehabilitating and reconstructing basic social servicesReestablishing the enabling policy environment for private sector

activities.

Current policy: the Bank’s Fragile State Facility (FSF) 3 windows

Supplemental support windowArrears clearance windowTargeted support window

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The fragile state continuumThe fragile state continuum

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Key lessons and conclusions Key lessons and conclusions

The number of African countries facing violent conflict has declined in recent years.

Empirical studies seeking to explain violent conflict have been heavily contested in terms of methodology, data and interpretation.

Conflicts have massive social and economic consequences.

Strengthening democracy as the basis of the social contract between government and the citizenry would help to prevent violent conflict in Africa.

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Key lessons and conclusions (continued)Key lessons and conclusions (continued)

Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction and peace building.

Efficient service delivery is critical for rebuilding livelihoods and promoting private sector development.

There is a need for increased and targeted assistance to fragile states, the majority of which are post-conflict countries.

Coordination and harmonization of donor interventions need to be improved to achieve higher aid effectiveness.

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Thank you

For additional information

http://www.afdb.org