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African Development Bank Group
Outline of the presentation
1. The Bank Group
2. Africa’s growth prospects
3. Investing in Africa
4. Benchmarking Nigeria
African Development Bank Group
1 The Bank Group
African Development Bank Group
African Development Bank Group
Bank GroupTerm referring collectively to:
African Development Bank
African Development Fund
Nigeria Trust Fund
May also include other funds managed by the Bank
MANDATE – African Development Bank
African Development Bank Group
Established in 1964 by Agreement between member states
Mandate: Contribute to the sustainable
economic development and social progress of its regional (African)
member countries
Fulfills mandate through financing of projects, mobilization of
resources, technical assistance, cooperation
Membership:
Currently 77 countries with 3 finalizing membership
Membership Composition:
53 African Countries and 24 Non- African
Countries
Provides financing through Loans,
Guarantees & Equity Investments for
sovereign and non-sovereign transactions
Bank Group Membership
African Development Bank Group
Asia
4 member countriesShareholding: 7%
Africa
53 member countriesShareholding: 60%
Europe
14 member countriesShareholding: 21%
Middle East
2 member countriesShareholding: 1%
North & South America
4 member countries Shareholding: 11%
Bank Group loan and grant approvals and disbursements, 2001-2010 (UA millions)
African Development Bank Group
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Loan and Grant Approvals
Disbursements
2 Africa’s growth prospects
African Development Bank Group
Annual average real GDP growth rates by regions (in %) 2000-2010
Advanced economies
Latin America and the Caribbean
World
Central and Eastern Europe
Middle East
Africa
Developing Asia
0 2 4 6 8 10
1.6
3.4
3.7
4.0
4.8
5.3
8.3
African Development Bank Group
Evolution of annual average real GDP growth rates by regions
African Development Bank Group
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16(%)
Africa
World
China
India
Nigeria
Projected real GDP per Capita growth rates in 2011
African Development Bank Group
Africa’s GDP per Capita growth prospects
2000 2010 2020 2030-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Africa Central Africa East Africa North Africa Southern Africa West Africa
African Development Bank Group
Sector contributions to growth in Africa, 2000-2009
Agriculture9.8%
Industry37.4%
Services52.8%
Services: 1. Trade, Hotels & Restaurants, 2. Transport & Communications, 3. Banking & Insurance, 4. Real Estate & Dwellings, 5. Public Administration & Defense 6. Education , Health, Domestic & Other Services
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
Industry: 1. Mining & Quarrying, 2. Manufacturing, 3. Small Scale Industry & Handicrafts, 4. Electricity & Water, Construction
African Development Bank Group
Share of Traditional Partners (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs) in Africa’s total trade
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
TPs EPs
African Development Bank Group
Investment, aid and remittances inflows to Africa (1990-2010)
African Development Bank Group
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80US $ Billions
FDI
ODARecorded remit-tances
Portfolio debt & private debt
FDI inflows to Africa (US $ mn)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Chin
a
World
China
World to Nigeria
African Development Bank Group
Africa’s governance progress
African Development Bank Group
Demographic growth evolution
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
West Africa*
Nigeria
Southern Africa
North Africa
East Africa
Central Africa
African Development Bank Group
A growing economically active population
African Development Bank Group
Continued rapid growth in the size of the economically active population (men and women 15-64 years of age), at an average of around 3.5% per annum, will lead to an absolute increase in Africa’s working age population of around 1.87 billion.
Around 74% of Africans will be of working age in 2060.
Human resources strongly impact on overall factor productivity.
Africa’s age distribution
African Development Bank Group
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
Africa - Age Pyramid in 2010
Male Female
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
Africa - Age Pyramid in 2040
Male Female
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population), most recent year
African Development Bank Group
Under five mortality rates total per 1000, 2010
African Development Bank Group
Growing middle class & urban sectors
African Development Bank Group
Distribution of African population by selected classes
African Development Bank Group
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20600
10
20
30
40
50
60 1st poverty line (<$1.25) 2nd poverty line ($1.25-$2)Middle class
Real estate
African Development Bank Group
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Egypt annual current GDP real estate Index
01/03/2
009
01/06/2
009
01/09/2
009
01/12/2
009
01/03/2
010
01/06/2
010
01/09/2
010
01/12/2
010
01/03/2
0110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Nigeria quarterly real GDP industry real estate
Great potential in natural and biological resources
African Development Bank Group
9.5% of the world oil reserves and close to 8% of gas reserves.
Highest reserve of agricultural land: 807 million ha.
Well positioned to embark on a low carbon growth and development path.
Unique fauna and flora.
Investments in ICT
African Development Bank Group
The 2010 ICT broadband penetration estimated at 7 per cent of the population is projected to rise to 99 per cent of the population in 2060.
Win-win area of collaboration between Africa and foreign investors.
Catalytic role for market integration and competitiveness.
The Need for substantial investments
African Development Bank Group
Massive injections of capital will be needed to bridge the huge infrastructure gap.
Africa’s Infrastructure Stock
African Development Bank Group
Electricity generation
(x10)
Electricity access
Road density (x10)
Paved roads
Fixed telephone
access
Mobile telephone
access (x10)
Improved water access
Improved sanitation
access
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
5638
2
2840 45
69
40
122
70
36 38
147
59
88
59
Africa
Electricity generation is measured in kilo watt hours per capita; road density in kilometers per 100 square kilometers of land; paved roads in percentage of to-tal roads; electricity, improved water and improved sanitation access in popu-lation percentage; fixed telephone, mobile telephone and internet access in users per 1000 people.
3 Investing in Africa
African Development Bank Group
Investing in Africa
African Development Bank Group
Access to finance needs to be addressed in order to unlock Africa’s potential for a sustained and inclusive growth.
Africa’s Billionaires
African Development Bank Group
Africa’s total billionaires numbered 7 in 2006 and 11 in 2010.
This year there are 14 on the 2011 Forbes Rich list made up of two Nigerians, 4 South Africans and 8 Egyptians.
Their main sectors of activity are: sugar, flour and cement, precious stones, construction, luxury goods, telecommunications, mining, cotton trading and banking.
Credit to the private sector in selected regions (% of GDP)
African Development Bank Group
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70A
s pe
rcen
tage
of G
DP
Africa
Developing Asia
Developing America
Developing Europe
Deposit accounts per 1,000 adults in selected African countries, 2009
African Development Bank Group
Madagasca
rNiger
Liberia
Burundi
Ethiopia
Côte d'Ivoire
Zimbabwe
Mali
Togo
RwandaKenya
Gambia,The
Algeria
South Afri
ca
Cape Verde
Mauriti
us0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Private equity funds raised in Africa by region, 2006-2010
African Development Bank Group
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1,000
North Africa Central Africa East Africa West AfricaSouthern Africa
Sampling of Africa private equity investments 2008-2010
African Development Bank Group
Market capitalization in major African stock exchanges (2003-2011)
African Development Bank Group
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000Egypt Mauritius Morocco Nigeria Tunisia
Market capitalization in major African stock exchanges (2003-2011)
African Development Bank Group
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000500000550000600000650000700000750000800000
Egypt Mauritius MoroccoNigeria Tunisia South Africa
Prices of African indexes (in USD)
African Development Bank Group
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Mauritius Semdex Index South Africa All Share IndexEgypt EGX30 Morocco MASI IndexTunisia Tunindex Nigeria All Share IndexKenya NSE20
Prices for selected African indexes (in USD)
African Development Bank Group
11/04/2
006
27/06/2
006
12/09/2
006
28/11/2
006
13/02/2
007
01/05/2
007
17/07/2
007
02/10/2
007
18/12/2
007
04/03/2
008
20/05/2
008
05/08/2
008
21/10/2
008
06/01/2
009
24/03/2
009
09/06/2
009
25/08/2
009
10/11/2
009
26/01/2
010
13/04/2
010
29/06/2
010
14/09/2
010
30/11/2
010
15/02/2
011
03/05/2
011
19/07/2
0110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
South Africa All Share Index Egypt EGX30 Nigeria All Share IndexKenya NSE20
Improving SMEs access to finance through stock markets
African Development Bank Group
Egypt’s Nile Stock Exchange (Nilex) Lower requirements in terms of minimum capital
and number of shares to be offered to the public.
An advisor is nominated to help eligible SMEs prepare their financial statement, comply with the listing rules and complete the initial public offering of their shares.
Improving SMEs access to finance through stock markets (contd.)
African Development Bank Group
South Africa’s AltX A registered advisor is designated to assist SMEs
through the listing process, the initial public offering and to help them maintain their status once listed.
The Directors Induction Programme is a compulsory education program offered to managers on corporate finance, management and governance.
Private credit bureaus in selected African countries
African Development Bank Group
South Africa -Transunion -Experian -Compuscan -XDS
Botswana -TransUnion ITC -CRB Africa -Compuscan Botswana
Namibia -Transunion ITC Namibia -Credit Information Bureau Namibia -Compuscan
Swaziland -ITC Swaziland -Transunion
Mozambique -CRB Africa
Zambia -CRB Africa
Tanzania -CRB Africa
Uganda -CRB Africa -Compuscan Uganda
Rwanda -CRB Africa
Kenya-Credit reference bureau africa limited -Metropol East Africa Ltd -Transunion Kenya
Egypt -I-score
Morocco -Experian
Nigeria -Credit registry corporation CR services LTD nigeria -XDS -Credit reference company
Ghana -XDS Ghana
Malawi -CRB Africa
4 Benchmarking Nigeria
African Development Bank Group
Ease of doing business
African Development Bank Group
South Africa
Tunisia Ghana Egypt Kenya Nigeria Senegal
34
5567
94 98
137
152
Corruption
African Development Bank Group
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Egypt
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Senegal
South Africa
Tunisia
Human development index in Nigeria vs selected comparators
African Development Bank Group
Senegal Nigeria Ghana Kenya South Africa
Egypt Tunisia
0.41 0.420.47 0.47
0.60 0.62
0.68
School enrolment (Secondary and Tertiary, % Gross) and adult literacy, 2001-2009
African Development Bank Group
34.430.5
62.460.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nigeria Angola Congo South Africa Togo SSA
%
Secondary enrolment ratio
Tertiary enrolment ratio
Adult literacy
Potential for Diaspora Bonds, 2007
African Development Bank Group
Sout
h A
fric
a
Nig
eria
Gha
na
keny
a
Ethi
opia
Som
alia
Sene
gal
Zim
babw
e
Suda
n
Ang
ola
0
1
2
3
4
US
$ bi
llion
s
Prospects…
African Development Bank Group
THE FUTURE IS PROMISING…
But there is much to be done!
Eye on the future
African Development Bank Group
Access to credit
Job creation
Technical skills building
Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure
(Energy, transportation-air, rail, land, waterways)
Regional integration
Gender
Governance
Acknowledgments
African Development Bank Group
Laureline Pla
Nadim Guelbi
Athanasius Coker
Simon Mizrahi
Desire Vencatachellum
Thank you
African Development Bank Group