Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Africa-EU Energy PartnershipStatus Report Update: 2016A mid-term report on progress, achievements and future perspectives
Africa-EU Energy PartnershipStatus Report Update: 2016A mid-term report on progress, achievements and future perspectives
About the Africa-EU Energy PartnershipThe Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) is one of theeight partnerships created following the December 2007Lisbon summit, under the Joint Africa-EU Strategy(JAES) – a long-term framework for co-operation thatallows Africa and Europe to work together to develop ashared vision, common policy approaches and actions.This is central to achieving the AEEP’s overall objective –of improving access to reliable, secure, affordable andsustainable energy services on both continents.
The AEEP’s efforts focus on meeting a series of concrete,realistic and visible targets by 2020, as agreed at thePartnership’s First High Level Meeting, held in Vienna inSeptember 2010, and at subsequent meetings, of whichthe Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held on 16-17 May2016 at the Politecnico di Milano in Italy, is the latest.
The AEEP receives political guidance from a SteeringGroup which is currently made up of representatives of
the African Union Commission, the Common Market forEastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,the European Commission, Germany and Italy. The AEEPSecretariat is hosted by the EU Energy Initiative’sPartnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF).
The AEEP’s data-monitoring and targets for renewables,energy access, efficiency and security are the subject ofthis report, which updates the AEEP’s 2014 StatusReport (which may be downloaded at http://euei-pdf.org/aeep-status-report). The 2014 Status Reportdescribed efforts to set benchmarks and monitorprogress to meet the AEEP’s goals, and pointed todirections for continued action. These includeddiscussion of whether the AEEP’s 2020 targets should berevised – a discussion expanded in this Status Report:2016 Update, ahead of the Second Stakeholder Forum inMilan.
AEEP 2020 Political TargetsDeclaration of the First High Level Meeting of the Africa-EU Energy PartnershipVienna, Austria, 14 September 2010
4 | AEEP
Steering Group
“We, African Ministers responsible for Energy, andEuropean Union (EU) Ministers responsible for Africa-EUenergy relations resolve to work within the AEEP to attainthe following targets, in the timeframe up to 2020:
Energy AccessAs a contribution to the African objective of achieving acontinent-wide rate of access to modern and sustainableenergy of around 50%, Africa and the EU will take jointaction to:
• bring access to modern and sustainable energy servicesto at least an additional 100 million Africans, focusingon sustainable models: to provide energy for basicservices (health, education, water, communication); topower productive activities; and to provide safe andsustainable energy services to households.
Energy SecurityAfrica and the EU will take joint action to improve energysecurity by:
• doubling the capacity of cross-border electricityinterconnections, both within Africa and between Africaand Europe, thus increasing trade in electricity while
ensuring adequate levels of generation capacity;
• doubling the use of natural gas in Africa, as well asdoubling African gas exports to Europe, by buildingnatural gas infrastructure, notably to bring currentlyflared gas to market.
Renewable Energy and EnergyEfficiencyAfrica and the EU will take joint action to increase bothenergy efficiency and the use of renewable energy inAfrica by:
• building 10,000MW of new hydropower facilities, takinginto consideration social and environmentalstandards;�
• building at least 5,000MW of wind power capacity;�
• building 500MW of all forms of solar energy capacity;
• tripling the capacity of other renewables, such asgeothermal, and modern biomass; and
• improving energy efficiency in Africa in all sectors,starting with the electricity sector, in support of Africa'scontinental, regional and sectoral targets.”
AEEP | 5
AEEP 2020 Political Targets 4
Introduction and Key Findings 6
Progress in a changing environment 7
Map: Africa’s energy infrastructure 9
Baseline DataTracking developments in the African energy sector 10
Aligning with SE4All and other actors 11
Information gaps and methodology 12
The Policy EnvironmentProgramme for Infrastructure Development in Africa 14
Coordinating multiple African Energy initiatives 14
Energy AccessMixed results for key indicators 15
Improving market economics, Progress in electrification 16
Map: Access to electricity and non-solid fuels 17
Questions about clean cooking 18
Access to electricity and non-solid cooking fuel, 2012 19
Offgrid issues 20
Energy SecurityInstalled capacity by technology, 2010 and 2015 21
Map: Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects 22
Doubling cross-border interconnections 23
Doubling the use of natural gas 25
Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000-14 25
Map: Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes 26
Africa gas exports to Europe, 2000-14 27
Exporting gas from Africa to Europe 27
Renewable EnergyInstalled capacity in 2010 and 2015 28
Encouraging partnership: the RECP 29
Installed renewable capacity by technology 29
Map: North African renewables projects 31
Hydroelectric generation, Installed capacity, 2000-15 32
Solar power grows strongly 34
Solar generation capacity 35
Wind power generation capacity, 2000-15 36
Tripling other renewables: geothermal and biomass 38
Map: Sub-Saharan renewables projects 39
Energy EfficiencyOverview, EE Laws and regulations 40
Energy intensity 41
Network losses 43
African and European ContributionsAfrican national government budget allocations 45
Subnational spending 46
Emerging private sources 47
European contributions 48
Targets to 2020 and Beyond 49
Imprint 50
DefinitionsHydropower includes micro-hydro and pumped storageprojects unless otherwise stated.
Biomass for electricity generation (rather than, cooking)covers the burning of organic matter . This category of‘Other Renewables’ includes waste-to-power projects.
Solar is utilised as a semantic covering any form ofelectricity generation which uses the sun as its soleenergy source unless further specified.
Thermal covers fossil fuels such as petroleum productsand coal when used for electricity.
bcm billion cubic metres
bn billion
C02e C02 equivalent
CSP concentrated solar power
GJ gigajoule
GW gigawatt (MW1,000)
h hour (as in GWh)
HEP hydroelectric power
km kilometre
kV kilovolt
kW kilowatt
m million
MJ/$ million joules/dollar
MW megawatt
PV photovoltaic
tcf trillion cubic feet
t/yr tonnes a year
Abbreviations
Contents
6 | AEEP
Status Report: 2016 UpdateThe First AEEP Status Report was published to coincidewith the Second High Level Meeting of the Africa-EUEnergy Partnership, held in Addis Ababa in February 2014.It was the result of more than two years of workconducted by the AEEP Secretariat, its consultants andstakeholders, to help the Partnership to meet its objectiveof tracking progress against the AEEP 2020 PoliticalTargets and inform decision-making in Africa-EU energycooperation. In this, it conformed with the mandateestablished for the AEEP at the 2007 Africa-EU Summitheld in Lisbon: to establish benchmarks by which thePartnership’s Political Targets could be measured.
The report’s origins were in a comprehensive baselinestudy, Monitoring Progress under the AEEP, which waslaunched at the AEEP’s First Stakeholder Forum in CapeTown, South Africa in May 2012. The 2014 Status Reportwas notable for operationalising the AEEP Monitoring Tool– a Power Project Database containing more than 3,250individual generation projects, along with details oftransmission lines, cross-border connections and exportmarkets, and other data. The 2014 Status Report was anambitious project; it is a reflection of the lack of dataabout many African energy sectors that there had beenlittle like it to date. Indeed, judging from feedbackreceived by the AEEP, the project is still seen asauthoritative in 2016, when the need to collect and collatemore accurate data has risen up the global agenda,following an upsurge in international attention paid toAfrican energy issues from initiatives such as the UnitedNations-led Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), USPresident Barack Obama’s Power Africa and the AfricanRenewable Energy Initiative (AREI).
The Monitoring Tool’s principal aim was to track progresstowards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. Thereport set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring ofelectricity generation capacity and cross-border electricityand gas interconnections on the continent. This was workcarried out directly by the AEEP and has been updated forthis report, which benefits from a database with morethan 3,000 generation projects.
Constraints on resources mean that external sources wereused to benchmark other key targets – for energy accessand energy efficiency – following rigorous analysis of thedata by the AEEP Secretariat. This remains the case for thisStatus Report Update. Analysis of published data suggestthat, in Africa, the goals of universal energy access andaccelerated rates of improvement in energy efficiency
remain elusive goals. As the 2014 Status Report observed,the situation is not helped by the poor quality of much ofthe existing data. While far from perfect, the GlobalTracking Framework (GTF)– established within the SE4Allframework and driven by a Steering Group led jointly bythe World Bank Group’s Energy Sector ManagementAssistance Programme (ESMAP) and the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) – has started to produce moreauthoritative data sets, which are expected to improvefurther in the next few years. This data is used for accessand efficiency indicators in this report.
This Status Report Update is to be launched at the AEEP’sSecond Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan, Italy on 16-17 May 2016. It is hoped that its data and analysis willhelp the AEEP’s diverse community of stakeholders – whoinclude governments, public institutions, civil society,academia and business – to take stock of progress to dateand develop policy for Africa and Europe to move ahead.
A critical issue to be informed by this report is whether,following nearly a decade of growth in the African energyindustries, the AEEP’s political targets are still relevant indeveloping sustainable energy systems. The AEEP PowerProject Database shows that solar power capacityinstalled since the 2010 baseline already far exceeds theAEEP 2020 Political Target of adding 500MW.
Discussions held in preparation for the Second StakeholderForum in Milan suggest it may be appropriate to ask if thePolitical Targets’ timeframe should be extended. A numberof major initiatives – including SE4All, AREI and PowerAfrica – have a shared target date: 2030. In September2015, the United Nations unveiled 17 SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs), which are intended as abaseline for harmonising global action to tackle poverty.SDG Goal 7 provides a commitment to “ensure access toaffordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” by2030. Goal 7 aims closely align with other AEEP targets,with commitments to substantially increase renewables’share of the global energy mix and doubling the globalrate of improvement in energy efficiency.
Research into the multiplicity of global initiativesconducted for the AEEP and published in a new report,Mapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa,concluded that given the large variety of multi-country,multi-stakeholder initiatives and aid programmes, a moresystematic exchange of information and increased co-ordination are needed. Aligning the AEEP’s Political Targetsmight be one contribution in this direction.
Introduction
AEEP | 7
Progress despite frustrationsThe world in which the Africa-EU Energy Partnership(AEEP) functions is changing, with many more actorsbecoming involved in the electricity sector. The AEEP hascontributed to pushing energy to the top of the Africa-EUagenda and has helped to shape global initiatives such asSustainable Energy for All (SE4All). Its remit remains toprovide a framework in which policies and projects – theAfrican Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), among others –can be implemented with high levels of delivery andstakeholder buy-in. It will push ahead on this agenda withthe AEEP’s Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan.
This Status Report Update builds on previous work to givean overview of progress towards meeting the AEEP’s 2020Political Targets – using the AEEP Monitoring Tool and itsground-breaking Africa Power Projects Database. Thereport should also provide a platform for discussion of
how cooperation can be further intensified and projectimplementation and coordination enhanced to helpimprove the lives of many millions in Africa and Europe.The report recognises that much remains to be done incompiling the data necessary to inform these decisions. Ina transitional period for data-gathering on African energysectors, AEEP stakeholders – many of them now alsoinvolved in complementary initiatives, such as SE4All andits Global Tracking Framework (GTF) – are committed tomaking up the information gap to obtain accurate data onAfrican access, energy efficiency and other indicators.
Renewable generation is growingRenewable energy (RE) generation capacity has beenincreasing, as shown in the graphic below, which is basedon analysis and estimates drawn from the AEEP PowerProject Database. The data for generation plants in
GW
45
20100
2020targets
2015
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2010 2020
GW
0
2010 2020
60GW
0
2010 2015 2020
6GW
0
2
4
2010 2020
3GW
02015
2015
2015
20
40
1
2
2
4
6
8
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Hydroelectricpower
Wind
Otherrenewables
33.01
35.18
43.01
1.123.13
6.12
0.981.50
2.94
0.10
1.55
0.60
75% scenario: 8.3050% scenario: 6.62
25% scenario: 4.93
75% scenario: 55.30
AEEP target: 43.0150% scenario: 48.63
25% scenario: 41.97
75% scenario: 5.96
50% scenario: 4.61
25% scenario: 3.25
75% scenario: 2.98
50% scenario: 2.49
25% scenario: 2.00
AEEP renewable generation targetsInstalled capacity in 2010 and 2015,and AEEP 2020 targets
Solar
Linear trend: 37.36
Linear trend: 5.14
Linear trend: 2.05
Linear trend: 2.99
AEEP target: 6.12
AEEP target: 2.94
AEEP target: 0.60
Key Findings
operation and planned for completion in the period to2020 suggest that in some sectors – such as theinstallation of solar capacity – developments have largelysurpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which wereagreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry wasat a very different stage of development.
Hydroelectric powerHydroelectric power (HEP) remains the dominant REtechnology supplying African grids. Between 2010 and2015, 2,174MW of HEP capacity was added. Further,rehabilitation work has been undertaken at a largenumber of dilapidated facilities, improving performanceand reliability. While large HEP projects dominate the AEEPPower Project Database, smaller projects can have a verybig impact in providing energy for isolated communities.
Solar capacity exceeds projectionsSolar capacity started at a very low level, but has enjoyedexponential success. The AEEP’s Political Target of adding500MW more generation capacity by 2020 was met onlyfour years after the 2010 baseline was set – and isexpected to have been met four times over by the end of2016. Installed capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW,compared with 103MW in 2010.
Wind powerSince 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been added,more than doubling the 2010 capacity of 1,120MW.Analysis of the project pipeline suggests the AEEP PoliticalTarget of adding 5,000MW by 2020 can be met, if 43% ofthe planned projects are completed on time.
Other renewable technologiesThe AEEP database shows that some 1,410MW must stillbe added to triple the amount of generation from biomassand geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Becausetimelines for some Kenyan geothermal projects haveslipped, 73% would have to be completed on time for theAEEP target to be reached. While biomass in 2015 hadmore capacity – 950MW compared with 554MW forgeothermal – geothermal capacity is anticipated toovertake biomass in 2017-18.
Indicators for accessIndicators for access to electricity and clean, sustainablecooking fuels remain inexact, and GTF statistics publishedto date are a work in progress, but they show an overallimprovement in electricity access: in 2012, 516m Africanshad access to electricity – leaving 570m without. Theaverage compound annual growth rate rose from 3.9% in2000-10 to 6.1% in 2010-12. In terms of new connections,
this represents an increase from an average of 14.4mpeople gaining access to electricity each year between2000 and 2010, to 28.9m in 2010-12. If this annualincrease can be sustained, Africa is likely to achieve theAEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020. Meanwhile, only32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking fuel in2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up from31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990.
Energy efficiencyEnergy intensity – calculated as units of energy per unit ofGDP – is a measurable (if imperfect) indicator of energyefficiency. World Bank/SE4All data suggests that Africaexperienced a decrease in average final energy intensity of20% (or an average 2.9% per year) in 2000-12. Networklosses remain a problem across Africa, but are exhibiting astable trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and2012 (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change in 2010-12.
Energy security reinforces connectionsThe slow pace of Programme for InfrastructureDevelopment in Africa (PIDA) projects and other cross-border schemes have slowed increases to electricitytransfer capacity; the database shows no new operatinglines completed since 2011. But recent progress onregional transmission projects suggests that, withimproved project delivery, the AEEP target of doublingcapacity by 2020 could be met. Among other energysecurity targets, gas consumption in Africa plateaued in2012-14, due to political and economic challenges thathave also had an impact on gas exports to Europe, whichfell to 46bcm in 2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006.
Financial support continues to growIncreasing levels of financial support are shown in data forAfrican and European contributions – which, although stillincomplete, point to positive trends. These include anincrease in allocations to energy in African government’sannual capital spending budgets, for which initiatives suchas PIDA are adding to, and volumes of multilateral loans.
AEEP should consider revising targetsEfforts to harmonise the growing number of Africanenergy-focused initiatives – the subject of a separate AEEPstudy to be presented in Milan – together with increasedfocus on private sector investments and the contributionof global initiatives like GTF towards better understandingenergy access and efficiency, suggest the AEEP shouldconsider revisions to its 2020 Political Targets, both interms of what is expected and the appropriate timeframe.2030 is the chosen date for SE4All and AREI, theSustainable Development Goals and other benchmarks.
8 | AEEP
Key Findings
AEEP | 9
6053494643 5831
66
63
61
5745
3029
1
4
5
8
9
1276
14 15 17 18 19 2010
21
22
24
25
28
33
34
392723
35
36
38
40
41
4842
44
32
47
50
51 1611
52
54
55
5637
59
62
64
65
26
67
68
70
69
2
13
3
SOM
ALI
A
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
S. TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE
CAPEVERDE
MAURITIUS
Réunion(Fr.)
SENEGAL
THE GAMBIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA
CÔTED’IVOIRE
BENIN
COMOROS
Mayotte (Fr.)
BURKINAFASO
GHANA
Western Sahara (under UNmandate)
SEYCHELLES
SOUTHSUDAN
A N G O L A
S O U T HA F R I C A
ETHIOPIA
S U D A N
C H A D
N I G E RM A L I
A L G E R I A
L I B Y A E G Y P T
N I G E R I A
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
TANZANIA
KENYA
DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO
GABON
NAMIBIA
CAMEROON
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
TOGO
EQUAT. GUINEA
MO
ZA
MB
IQU
E
REP.
OF
CO
NG
O(B
RAZZ
AV
ILLE
)
Johannesburg
Durban
Port Elizabeth
Bloemfontein
Beira
Mwanza
Dar es Salaam
Mombasa
Nacala
Ndola
Lubumbashi
Mbuji-Mayi
Benguela
Douala
Berbera
PortSudan
El Fasher
Lagos
Kano
Port HarcourtAbidjan
Alexandria
Luxor
Benghazi
Casablanca
Marrakech
Oran
Francistown
WalvisBay
East London
Tangier
Agadez
Abéché
Wau
Timbuktu
Nouadhibou
El Ayoun
La Skhira
Atar
Tamanrasset
Constantine
Tobruk
Al-Kufra
NémaSt-Louis
Kayes
Kankan
Gao
Kumasi
BoboDioulasso
Ibadan
Arlit
Zinder
Enugu
Maiduguri
Sarh
SuezPort Said
Hurghada
Minya
Atbara
El ObeidAssab
MassawaKassala
Kismayo
Mtwara
Pointe-Noire
Matadi
Kuito
Namibe
Tsumeb
Livingstone
Blantyre
Toliara
Mahajanga
Antsiranana
Toamasina
Inhambane
Kimberley
Cape Town
Arusha
Bulawayo
Sabha
Oujda
Fès
BordjMokhtar
AbuSimbel
WadMedani
Hargeisa
Bosaso
Sokoto
Kaduna
Kisumu
Gulu
Bunia
Bukavu
Port-GentilMbandaka
Kananga Tanga
Songea
Mbeya
Pemba
Tolanaro¨
HuamboLuena
Mongu
Maun
Lüderitz
Pietermaritzburg
MosselBay
Asyut
Halaib
Taba
DamiettaIdkuMisratah
MarsaAl-BregaRas
LanufGhadames
Bizerte
Gabès
Skikda
In SalahAdrar
Béchar
ArzewSidi Bel Abbès
Agadir
Ségou
Tema
Ferkessédougou Tamale
San-Pedro
Ajaokuta
Kribi
Maroua
Ngaoundéré
Gedaref
DireDawa
Harer
Mekele
Garowe
Negele
Mbarara
Iringa
Kigoma
Soyo
Bandundu
Kolwezi
Menongue
Sumbe
Kalemie
Rundu
Keetmanshoop
Ghanzi
Quelimane
Lichinga
Selebi-Phikwe
SecundaSasolburg
Richards BayAlexander
Bay
Maradi
Dese
Tarfaya Sarir
Renk
Ab.
Zeit Bay
Gweru
Hwange
Boujdour El Hamrawein
Ain Moussa
Kisangani
Buta
ANTANANARIVO
LUSAKA
LUANDA
KINSHASABRAZZAVILLE
NAIROBI
LILONGWE
LIBREVILLE
YAOUNDÉ
BANGUI
KAMPALAMOGADISHU
ADDIS ABABA
ASMARAKHARTOUM
N’DJAMENA
ABUJA
NIAMEY
OUAGADOUGOU
ACCRA
LOMÉ
PORTO-
NOVO
YAMOUSSOUKRO
MONROVIA
FREETOWNCONAKRY
BISSAU
DAKAR
BAMAKODJIBOUTIVILLE
MORONI
MALABO
BUJUMBURA
KIGALI
BANJUL
SÃO TOMÉ
DODOMA
JUBA
MAPUTO
WINDHOEK
GABORONE
PRETORIA
PORT LOUIS
VICTORIA
MBABANE
MASERU
CAIRO
NOUAKCHOTT
TRIPOLI
ALGIERS
RABAT
PRAIA
TUNIS
HARARE
National boundary
Major gas fields and recentsignificant discoveries
Gas pipeline
Major power generationprojects:Commissioned
Pipeline
Hydroelectric (includingpumped storage: PS)
Thermal (oil, gas, coal)
Other (solar, wind,geothermal, nuclear)
Power line
LakeVictoria
L.Nasser
S a h a r a
Nile
L.Tana
LakeTanganyika
Lake Malawi(Lake Nyasa)
L.Kivu
L. Volta
L.Chad
L.Turkana
NigerBenue
BlueNile
U�l�
Congo
Kasa�
Zambezi
Va
alOrange
Pemba I.Zanzibar I.
L.Edward
L.Mweru
Chari
Limpopo
Cubango
Cun
ene
Omo
Juba
L.Albert
Tana
Lualaba
Whi
te
Nile
NILEDELTA
WESTERNDESERTGHADAMES
BASIN
GULF OFGABÈS
SIRTEBASIN
HASSIR’MEL BERKINE
BASIN
ILLIZIBASINSAHARA
FIELDS
NIGER DELTA
OFFSHORE CABINDALOWER CONGO BASIN
SONGO SONGO
PANDE
KUDU
IBHUBESI
BREDASDORP
FOXTROT,PANTHÈRE
OFFSHORE RUVUMA/ ROVUMA BASIN
TEN, JUBILE
E
BANDA
TEMANE
CHEWA, PWEZA
CALUB,HILALA
LEOPARD
M’BOUNDI
LITCHENDJILI
LONTRA
KUDU, ELA
ND
SANKOFA
GREATERTORTUE
ZOHR
To Italy
To Italy
To Jordan
To Israel
To Spain
Africa’s largestpower projects(final capacity in gigawatts)Projects in bold are includedin PIDA’s Priority Action Plan
1 •Grand Inga 39.02 •Thyspunt or Duynefontein
nuclear 9.63 • REIPPP Rounds 1-4 6.34 •Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam (GERD) 6.05 •Upper White Nile 5.06 •Beni Suef 4.87 •Burullus 4.88 •El Daba nuclear 4.89 • Inga III 4.8
10 •Kusile 4.811 •Medupi 4.812 •New Capital 4.813 • FiT Rd.1 wind & solar 4.314 •Kendal 4.115 •Majuba 4.116 •Matimba 4.017 •Lethabo 3.718 •Tutuka 3.719 •Duvha 3.620 •Matla 3.621 •Lekki 3.722 •Mambilla 3.123 •El Hamrawein 3.024 •Kriel 3.025 •Ogorode 2.826 •Ain Moussa I & II 2.627 •El Hamrawein 2.428 •Sengwa (Gokwe N.) 2.429 •Beni Suef IPP 2.330 •Dairut 2.331 •Nubaria I-III 2.332 •TuNur solar 2.333 •Arnot 2.134 •Aswan High 2.135 •Beko Abo 2.136 •Cahora Bassa 2.137 •Lauça 2.138 •Stiegler’s Gorge 2.1
39 •El Hamrawein 2.040 • EmuruangogolakÐ
Barrier geothermal 2.041 • Solar Euromed 2.042 •Gilgel Gibe IV 2.043 •Helwan South 2.044 •Hendrina 2.045 •Mandaya 2.046 •Safaga 2.047 •Grand Eweng 1.0–2.048 •Gilgel Gibe III 1.949 •Damanhur CC 1.850 •Koeberg nuclear 1.851 •Mmamantswe 1.852 •Ncondezi 1.853 •Cairo West 1.754 •Tams 1.755 •Batoka Gorge 1.656 •Caculo Cabaça 1.657 •Karadobi 1.658 •Cairo North 1.559 •Camden 1.560 •Giza North II & III 1.561 •Mphanda Nkuwa 1.562 •Al-Khalij 2 1.463 • Inga II 1.464 • Luapula River 1.465 •Jorf Lasfar 1.466 •Ankerlig 1.367 •Egbin 1.368 • Ingula PS 1.369 •Nador 1.370 •Safi 1.3
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italicsFiT: Feed-in Tariff
REIPPP: Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database;Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
(Mpumalanga)
(Lower Egypt)
Africa’s energy infrastructure
Key Findings
10 | AEEP
Tracking developments in theAfrican energy sector
Baseline Data
The First AEEP Status Report introduced the AEEPMonitoring Tool – the African Power Project Databasecontaining more than 3,259 individual generation projects,along with details of transmission lines, cross-borderconnections and export markets, and other data. Theprincipal aim of the database was to track progresstowards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. Thereport set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring ofelectricity generation capacity and cross-border electricityand gas interconnections on the continent. The Databasehas been updated for this Status Report Update.
The approach allows continent-wide statistics to be tracedback to their origin in the power plants that generate theelectricity. This makes the statistics more transparent – ina sector that is often reputed for its opacity – whilefacilitating the analysis of developments in a way notpossible in other systems.
In this way, the AEEP Monitoring Tool allows policy-makersto understand how progress towards the Political Targetsagreed at its First High Level Meeting in Vienna, Austria inSeptember 2010 – which were confirmed in February 2014at the AEEP’s Second High Level Meeting – are beingachieved. It is intended to help the AEEP’s variedcommunity of stakeholders to better understand trends,and identify opportunities and problems.
There has been a greater focus on improving the quality ofmonitoring of the African energy sector since the originalAEEP Baseline Monitoring Report in 2012. At the forefrontof these efforts has been the Sustainable Energy for All(SE4All) initiative, now established as a permanentsecretariat in Vienna and sponsor of Global TrackingFramework (GTF), whose Steering Group is led jointly bythe WBG’s Energy Sector Management AssistanceProgramme (Esmap) and the International Energy Agency(IEA).
The latest SE4All Global Tracking Framework Report,published in 2015, showed significant progress towardsbetter quality of data relating to energy access inparticular. While the AEEP has been able to mobiliseresources to monitor generation, it has not beenpositioned to carry out similar levels of data collection onissues of access and efficiency – although the Partnership
has active work streams which are heavily focused onother facets of these issues. For this reason – andreflecting the strong support offered by African andEuropean governments to SE4All and the GTF process –this report depends on GTF data.
There has been recognition of the need to providecomprehensive coverage of the continent at the same timeas improving the depth of coverage. However,shortcomings remain. Improved data on energy accessalong the tiered system model is only available for aminority of countries. Datasets for the continent as awhole remain, in large part, a modelling exercisedependent on old data points. Furthermore, even with theacceleration of work by SE4All/GTF, the latest availabledata is for 2012. Using existing data alone makesunderstanding the effects of energy access and efficiencyprogrammes initiated early in the decade impossible todetermine.
Since its creation in 2007, the AEEP has taken a lead instatistical analysis and benchmarking key sectors ofAfrican energy. This pioneering approach has beenreflected in subsequent initiatives such as SE4All andmany more. It is given substance by the AEEP MonitoringTool, which is able to provide reliable and up-to-dateelectricity generation and interconnection statistics upuntil 2015 and beyond.
Gaining an understanding of the weaknesses apparent indatasets that might support more accurate benchmarkingof AEEP and other monitoring of African energy indicatorshas been a substantial element in the Partnership’s work.Helping to strengthen methodological approaches anddata-gathering will continue to be an important area ofwork as the AEEP strives to meet its goals.
Tracking from the ground upThe data underpinning the Monitoring Tool comes fromthree key sources: the AEEP Power Project Database, theGTF and BP. The database contains information onoperating and planned power plants and electricityinterconnections in Africa, allowing the installed capacityof renewable and other energy technologies to be trackedaccurately through time.
The dataset – while a work in progress – is continuallyupdated, allowing real-time analysis of events and trendsin the sector.
The AEEP Power Project Database, which also provides thebasis of the interconnection and renewable energy powergeneration statistics in this report, attempts to remove theopacity and improve on the reliability of existing datasets.It records detail including each of the recorded project’sname, location, size and fuel type for over 3,250 actual andplanned generation plants across the continent.
The approach of individually researching, verifying andrecording power projects in 50 countries cannot claim tobe comprehensive or guarantee the accuracy of all of thedata. The approach is limited in its ability to record certaintypes of data, which may be increasingly important asmore off-grid solutions are implemented to overcomegeneration shortfalls; one example would be statistics onsolar water heaters and household energy solutions (suchas solar home systems and diesel generators).
The AEEP’s current approach may also lack the authority ofaggregations based on data received from efficient, well-resourced national statistical offices. However, despiteshortcomings, the AEEP is confident that this work is animprovement on comparable datasets – and provides aplatform for further African-European cooperation todevelop monitoring.
Aligning with SE4AllGiven the realities of developing comprehensive efficiencyand access statistics and the global efforts already underway, the AEEP has opted for a strategy of aligning itsmonitoring with SE4All, which is establishing benchmarksfor access data.
Supported by a wide range of major public and privatestakeholders, SE4All published its Global TrackingFramework in May 2013. The report marked a break withprevious African energy statistics, endeavouring to providedata for every country on the continent, as well as puttingin place financial and technical support to produce betterquality statistics in countries that signed up to the SE4Allprogramme. The second GTF report in 2015 built on thismodel, and showed the process was starting to makeprogress in some areas.
The SE4All database contains estimates of access toelectricity and non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensityand electricity transmission and distribution losses for allbut a handful of African countries. Using modellingtechniques, the GTF takes data from surveys carried out tointernational standards to produce estimates of datapoints for years and countries where no data currentlyexists. The underlying data set is aggregated from theWBG’s Global Electrification Database,the IEA and theWorld Health Organisation’s Household Energy Database.
AEEP | 11
Baseline Data
12 | AEEP
Baseline Data
Tracking energy security indicatorsWithin the AEEP’s energy security remit, information on
pipeline and LNG natural gas exports from Africa to Europe
and the consumption of natural gas is contained in the
annual Statistical Review of World Energy, published by BP
plc. This report is well respected internationally and has
been published since 1951, providing an unrivalled
dataset.
These data sources together form the AEEP Monitoring
Tool, which tracks progress towards the AEEP 2020
political targets.
Overcoming information gaps…In many areas, progress will understandably take time,
given the need to develop the capacity and independence
of national statistical offices and to undertake large-scale,
very detailed surveys. In many countries, household
surveys to gain a much deeper picture of energy use are
only just beginning. Data gaps thus remain.
The absence of up-to-date energy access statistics means
that analysts are reliant on estimates for data, which can
have only limited responsiveness to policy reforms and
new initiatives. In energy efficiency, SE4All data on
network losses is implausibly volatile. In the case of the
statistics for Botswana, the dataset estimates a low of
11.1% in 2001 but a high of 158% in 2012. Similarly, for
Togo the figures fluctuate between 40.1% and 129%.
Clearly there are serious questions to be asked about the
dataset.
Constrained resources at national statistical offices,
coupled with very widely dispersed populations,
communications and transport infrastructure restrictions,
limited state presence in some locations, large informal
economies and the ubiquitous use of diesel generators,
the poor condition of much existing infrastructure, all
contribute to a high degree of uncertainty and
complication in data production and analysis.
…needs a lot of resourcesReporting by national utilities and governments has often
left much to be desired when it comes to providing up-to-
date, comprehensive and publicly available statistics. But
there has been some improvement as energy regulators
AEEP 2020 Political Target Baseline 2010 Numeric2020 Target
AEEP 2020 Will the target be met or missed by 2020?
Energy Security
Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 9,230MW 18,460MW Missed on current trend
Double the use of natural gas in Africa 108bcm 216bcm Missed on current trend
Double African gas exports to Europe 79bcm 158bcm Current trend is negative
Renewable Energy
10,000MW Hydro 33,010MW 43,010MWMissed on trend since 2010. Achieved onoptimistic and balanced pipeline scenario
5,000MW Wind 1,120MW 6,120MWMissed on trend since 2010. Achieved onoptimistic and balanced pipeline scenario
500MW Solar 103MW 603MW Already achieved
Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) 981MW 2,943MWMissed on trend since 2010Achieved in optimistic pipeline scenario only
Energy Efficiency
Network losses (%) 12.7 na No target defined
Energy intensity (MJ/US$2011 PPP) 6.7 na No target defined
Energy Access
Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 458m 558mComfortably achieved if trend since 2010 is maintained
Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 336m 436m Missed by 10m on trend since 2010
AEEP | 13
Baseline Data
and new management practices have had time to embed
somewhat more open reporting cultures.
The situation is especially acute when it comes to
assessing levels of access to modern, sustainable energy.
For example, in some cases an electricity connection to
one or a cluster of houses may be registered as a whole
settlement or even town having access, which would
clearly skew the data. This report – like other work in the
sector – remains subject to these .
Given limited options, this report uses the best of the data
available to produce estimates of trends and quantities, in
the case of several key indicators following unique
research work carried out for the AEEP.
The data set out in the following pages is of sufficient
quality to illustrate trends and provide an indication of
current values and rates. It does not claim to be either
definitive or infallible, but it aspires to making a
contribution towards better understanding the trends by
which African populations can be supplied with the clean,
sustainable energy, to which it is everyone’s right to have
access.
Historical trends for 2020 target(based on annual average increases)
Scenarios(based % on current project pipeline)
Long-term (2000-15)
Medium-term (2007-15)
Short-term (2010-15)
Pessimistic (25% online)
Halfway (50% online)
Optimistic(75% online)
Energy Security
Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 11,842MW 11,619MW 11,076MW na na na
Double the use of natural gas in Africa (bcm)* 164 146 143 na na na
Double African gas exports to Europe (bcm)* 42 30 21 na na na
Renewable Energy
10,000MW Hydro 37,378MW 38,319MW 37,358MW 41,969MW 48,633MW 55.297MW
5,000MW Wind 4,118MW 4,669MW 5,144MW 4,934MW 6,616MW 8,299MW
500MW Solar n/a n/a 2,989MW 3,254MW 4,606MW 5,958MW
Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) n/a n/a 2,054MW 1,995MW 2,487MW 2,978MW
Energy Efficiency
Network losses % 2000-2012 – 12.6, 2010-2012 – 12.3 na na na
Energy intensity (MJ/US$2005 PPP ) 2000-2012 – 5.2, 2010-2012 – 4.8 na na na
Energy Access
Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 649m, 2010-2012 – 743m na na na
Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 420m, 2010-2012 – 426m na na na
* Trend figures are to 2014
14 | AEEP
Baseline Monitoring
PIDA will progress with strong support
Coordinating multiple African Energy initiatives
Policy Environment
The Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa(PIDA) and its Priority Action Programme (PAP) are centralto efforts to upgrade energy and other services across thecontinent by developing major projects at a regional level.PIDA has an impressive roster of schemes, which areshown in the map on page 20. It is supported by theAfrican Union Commission (AUC), African DevelopmentBank (AfDB) and the New Partnership for Africa’sDevelopment (NEPAD), whose NEPAD Planning andCoordinating Agency is PIDA’s implementing agency.
The European Union has promoted support for PIDA as animportant element in its cooperation policy, and with newurgency since the April 2014 Africa-EU Summit in Brussels.This is reflected in financial and technical support forprojects, and coordinated through bodies like the Africa-EUReference Group on Infrastructure. European institutionsare participating in initiatives such as the PIDA ProjectTechnical Assistance Facility, which is supporting earlystage project preparation for these complex schemes.
PIDA has identified a group of energy sector projectswhich could have the greatest transformative potential inthe period to 2040: the PAP. A subset of priorityprogrammes will expand existing capacity to meet
forecasts of growing trade through to 2020. Theprogramme’s primary objective is to reduce energy costsand increase access.
PIDA gives project development a strongly regional focus.This point was emphasised by NEPAD executive secretaryIbrahim Assane Mayaki at the First PIDA Week, organisedby (NEPAD) in November 2015. “We must recognise thatpolicy-making is increasingly moving from a national to aregional level,” Mayaki said.
The scale and complexity of PIDA’s ‘transformational’projects – led by the biggest project of all, to develop thepotential 50GW Inga Falls hydropower resource inDemocratic Republic of Congo for the benefit of all Africa –means progress has been slow in many cases. No PIDAproject has come online in the period covered by thisupdate report. All four energy projects included in therecent PIDA Financial Structuring Plan have been discussedfor years: the Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya power transmissionline, the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, Batoka Gorge andInga III hydropower. But progress on projects like Ruzizi IIIand the CLSG transmission line (see Energy Security)suggests several more PIDA schemes will help to light upAfrica in the period through to 2020.
As energy has risen ever higher up the global agenda,there has been a proliferation of institutions, programmesand initiatives entering the African arena. Collaborationbetween organisations is now common, but even moreoften actors operate in isolation, duplicating effort andconfusing issues. Harnessing momentum behind a focusedset of global strategies and priorities seems essential tomaximise impact and avoid contradictory goals;thisrequires a clear picture of the range of institutions, funds,programmes and initiatives jostling for space in the sector.
The AEEP has been involved in compiling the reportMapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa,since May 2015. The report surveyed 58 initiatives andprogrammes. Information on 51 of these was eithervalidated or supplied by the institutions behind them.
Renewable energy was seen as a priority, with 98% ofinitiatives covering it. Some 52% covered energy efficiency,41% non-renewable generation and 36% heating andcooling, while only 34% were involved in clean cooking.Some 74% of electricity sector initiatives included grid
generation, 57% mini-grids and 50% stand-alone off-grid.The AEEP mapping exercise found Central Africa receivedless attention than other regions, and relatively fewfocused on African sub-regions. A high level of privatesector participation was identified, but limited interactionwith civil society. It sees scope for stronger engagementwith African non-governmental organisations.
As this Status Report Update also concludes, Mapping ofEnergy Initiatives identifies significant potential forincreased support for clean cooking, and noted that whileoff-grid and mini-grid projects are receiving moreattention, this interest comes from a low base. Furtheranalysis is needed to develop tailored offerings, whichinclude support for entrepreneurs and start-ups. Thereport concluded that skill development tended to beunder-represented in technical assistance programmes.Knowledge transfer is a priority for many Africangovernments and an essential component of buildingcapacity at institutions and utilities; more skilldevelopment programmes might work.
AEEP | 15
African governments and the European Union recognisethat access to sustainable energy is the basis of everymodern economy, without which it is impossible to raiseliving standards or drive inclusive economic growth. Aswell as increasing productivity and the possibilities forentrepreneurship, access to electricity creates safer, well-litstreets, saves time in the home and allows food to bestored for longer. Electricity provides the foundation formodern healthcare, the media and digital world. In Africa,as in so many emerging economies, access to cleancooking fuels is integral to improving living standards.Reliance on solid fuel for cooking, such as charcoal, haswell-documented adverse effects on health, together withoften unsustainable and damaging production methods.
Securing access to secure, affordable, clean andsustainable energy services is one of three main areas foraction under the Agenda for Change driving the EU’senergy development policy. The African Union and EU seethat providing support for the United Nations’ SustainableEnergy for All (SE4All) initiative – which aims to pull 1bnout of energy poverty by 2030, some 500m of them in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – is an important means ofcoordinating activity in this critical area.
African governments, the EU and other internationalactors are firmly focused on achieving a radical overhaul ofthis situation. Goal 7 of the Sustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDGs), unveiled by the UN in September 2015 as abaseline for harmonising global action to overcomepoverty, provides a commitment to “ensure access toaffordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” –underpinning SE4All’s promise of universal access by 2030.
However, data compiled for SE4All and research by theAEEP and other agencies suggest that universal energy
access remains an elusive goal. While many countries have
made a concerted effort to improve levels of rural
electrification and other forms of access, the impacts of
insufficient resources and growing populations are still
reflected in disappointing access indicators.
Further, while statistics – and basic observation – show
that much of SSA is confronted with major shortfalls of
access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, there is much
to do before sufficiently accurate data is available to help
improve the situation. Within the SE4All framework, the
Global Tracking Framework (GTF) has been established to
counter this shortfall, with a Steering Group led jointly by
the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance
Programme (ESMAP) and the International Energy Agency
(IEA).
much remains to be done to compile accurate statistics
until the GTF datasets are ready to provide a definitive
picture of access in SSA. With some reason, critics argue
that the statistics as currently available may even serve to
obscure the challenges, rather than enlighten strategies to
overcome them. Indeed, as the AEEP’s 2014 Status Reportobserved, debate continues over the definition of access.
These issues are discussed by the AEEP’s Energy Access
Work Stream. NGO Practical Action (whose Senior Policy
Advisor Lucy Stevens is AEEP Focal Point for Civil Society in
Europe), has argued that new ways of defining and
measuring energy access are crucial if the SDG target is to
result in poverty reduction and development benefits. To
achieve this means going beyond the conventional binary
definitions of energy access such as household electricity
connections and cooking with non-solid or solid fuels.
The GTF is adopting an innovative, ‘multi-tier’ approach to
defining access, able to measure progress in achieving
good-quality, affordable, safe and reliable energy services.
While the statistics presented below may sometimes only
represent a ‘best guess’ as to the current situation, it
makes sense to work with the GTF data accumulated so far
during the interim period covered by this Status ReportUpdate. Given the paucity of other available data – and
the GTF’s potential for providing a more rigorous baseline
in the period to 2030 – the SE4All data set seems the most
appropriate for use in this report, in the understanding
that this source will produce a more refined appreciation
of SSA’s multiple problems of access in coming years.
2000 10
1,500
Millions
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
012 20
projections
AEEP 2020 target: 558
AEEP 2020 target: 436
Africa’spopulation
Access to non-solidcooking fuels
Access toelectricity
1,086
516
354
806
314
257
426
743
1,324
Energy Access
16 | AEEP
Baseline Monitoring
Data on access to modern and sustainable energy remainweak on a number of levels. In the interim, statisticsproduced by the Global Tracking Framework arepredominantly estimates based on a limited set of datapoints, and the impact of changes in policy and theimplementation of large projects will not show up on astatistical model until new data points are gathered – theaim of intense national-level work that is now under way.
Efforts to improve the capacity of national statisticalauthorities are supported by the AEEP and otherstakeholders. Without these authorities, reliably trackingthe situation on the ground will not be possible.
The SE4All statistics published to date show animprovement in electricity access. This as investment in
sustainable energy has been increasing, and improvedgovernance and management of the electricity sector hasfacilitated project development. The data show that, in2012 (the most recent year for which data is available),516m Africans had access to electricity – leaving 570mwithout.
The average compound annual growth rate for electricityaccess has risen from 3.9% in the 2000-10 period to 6.1%between 2010 and 2012. In terms of new connections, thisrepresents an increase from an average of 14.4m peoplegaining access to electricity each year between 2000 and2010, to an average of 28.9m per year in 2010-12.
If this annual increase can be sustained , then Africa islikely to achieve the AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020.
Percent of populationwith access to electricity/non-solid cooking fuels, 2012
70.0 – 100%
50.0 – 69.9%
30.0 – 49.9%
15.0 – 29.9%
Less than 15%
Access toelectricity(urban)
Access toelectricity(rural)
Access tonon-solidcookingfuels(urban)
Progress in electrification since 2010
Providing access to modern andsustainable energy services requiresbuilding new markets and overhaulingold ones. At its most basic, the electricitysector has only two main sources ofrevenue: income from consumers andsubsidies, which are usually provided bythe state. For decades, a majority ofAfrican governments have held tariffswell below costs, seeing this as the onlyway to keep the cost of electricityaffordable for very poor consumers. Suchcalculations are often driven by politicalexpediency, rather than by economiclogic – resulting in under-investment and
a lack of incentives to invest. In
recognition of this stark reality, policy-
makers have made the introduction of
cost-reflective tariffs (CRTs) a focus for
reforms.
Across the continent there have been
concerted efforts to move tariffs towards
the system cost of providing electricity
by establishing economic and quasi-
economic regulators that have a degree
of independence from governments. The
EU has created several instruments, to
assist in fine-tuning partner countries’
energy policies and regulatory
frameworks to stimulate investment,
including EUEI PDF and the Technical
Assistance Facility (TAF).
Real progress has been made, despite
political pressures, but there is more to
do. Southern African Development
Community (SADC) member countries in
2004 committed to achieving CRTs by
2013, but are not yet there. Electricity
supply markets have yet to show they
can achieve the commercial take-off that
mobile telecommunications have
achieved with such great impact across
the continent.
Improving market economics to create more consumers
Energy Access
AEEP | 17
97.1%100%
100%100%
100%100%100%100%
27.9%32.6%
2.1%5.1%
36.1%36.1%
84.3%53.3%
2.2%26.6%
16.2%23.0%
3.2%10.8%
4.8%6.4%
3.2%14.4%2.0%25.6%
42.0%21.8%
19.1%55.8%
39.3%56.5%
5.0%34.5%
2.0%60.6% 2.2%26.2%
2.0%14.2%
2.0%9.8%
68.7%70.6%
16.8%64.1%
4.8%31.5%
6.2%38.4% 24.8%55.6%
21.9%53.7%
28.8%60.5%
55.1%66.0%
78.7%89.3%
24.8%41.6% 5.0%16.4%
2.0%18.0%
2.0%6.5%
4.2%15.3%
25.5%69.3%
2.0%15.4%
17.3%22.1%
44.3%37.0%
45.0%47.3%
62.5%53.2%
29.6%40.5%
3.8%20.2%
38.4%42.0%
38.0%20.6%
86.7%85.4%
100%100%
4.6%32.7%
5.3%13.1%
99.8%100%
99.3%100%
2.6%18.2%
3.1%9.8%
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE
CAPEVERDE
MAURITIUS
SENEGAL
THE GAMBIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA
CÔTED’IVOIRE
BENIN
COMOROS
BURKINA FASO
GHANA
Western Sahara (under UNmandate)
SEYCHELLES
SOUTHSUDAN
A N G O L A
S O U T HA F R I C A
E T H I O P I A
S U D A NC H A D
N I G E RM A L I
A L G E R I A
L I B Y AE G Y P T
N I G E R I A
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
TANZANIA
KENYA
DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO
GABON
NAMIBIA
CAMEROON
T UNISIA
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
SOMALIATOGO
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
REPUBLIC OF CONGO(BRAZZAVILLE)
MOZAMBIQUE
Réunion(Fr.)
Mayotte(Fr.)
Cabinda(Ang.)
Percent of population with accessto electricity, 2012
70.0 – 100%
50.0 – 69.9%
30.0 – 49.9%
15.0 – 29.9%
Less than 15%
Percent of population with accessto non-solid cooking fuels, 2012
%
%
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
L.Victoria
L.Nasser
Nile
L.Tana
L.Tanganyika
L.Malawi(L.Nyasa)
L.Kivu
L.Chad
L.Turkana
Niger
Benue
Blue Nile
White
Nile
U�l�
Kasa�
Zambezi
Va
alOrange
Pemba I.Zanzibar I.
Mafia I.
L.Edward
L.Mweru
Chari
Limpopo
Cubango
Cune
ne
Omo
Juba
Sanaga
Cuanza
Kafue
Tana
Gt.Ruaha
Lual
aba
Black
L.Albert
Volta
Cong
o
Access tonon-solidcookingfuels(rural)
E a s tA f r i c a
N o r t h A f r i c a
W e s t A f r i c a
C e n t r a lA f r i c a
S o u t h e r nA f r i c a
Access to electricity and non-solid fuels
Energy Access
18 | AEEP
Energy Access
Questions about clean cookingThe GTF data for access to non-solid cooking fuels point toan apparent slowing of momentum behind the cleancooking fuel movement. These statistics have barelyimproved since the 2010 baseline was established, withincreases in access struggling to keep pace withpopulation growth. Indeed, the data show declines insome cases.
Only 32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cookingfuel in 2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely upfrom 31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990. The compoundannual growth rate has actually declined since 2010, whenit averaged 2.6% compared with an average of 2.7% in the2000-10 period.
However, this represented an increase in terms of absolutenumbers: on average 18m Africans gained access to non-solid fuel for cooking between 2010 and 2012, comparedto an annual average of 8m in 2000-10. Were the samenumber of people to gain access to non-solid cooking fuelsevery year to 2020 – as the data show happened between2010 and 2012 – then only 32.1% of Africans would haveaccess by the end of the current AEEP target period,leaving nearly 900m people without.
The implications go beyond the negative effects of solidcooking fuel use. There appears to be a substantial gapbetween the use of clean cooking fuels and access toelectricity, implying that many households with access topower continue to use ‘dirty fuels’ for cooking. Thissuggests that issues around the reliability andaffordability of electricity, the cost of householdappliances, and education about the risks of using solidcooking fuel continue to be problematic.
Rural-urban divideStark differences persist between levels of rural and urbanaccess. In 2012, 26.3% of people in rural areas had accessto electricity in the average African country, according toSE4All/GTF. This had risen from 23.8% in 2010, 18.6% in2000 and 14.6% in 1990. Excluding North Africa and SouthAfrica, the 2012 figure is just 17.8%. In contrast, 69.9% ofthe urban population in the average African country hadaccess to electricity in 2012, up from 63.7% in 2010, 59.5%in 2000 and 58% in 1990.
Median figures show an even more substantialdifferential. While the median for the urban population isvery similar to the near 70% mean shown above, themedian for the rural population shows that more than halfof the countries in Africa had access rates of less than13.7% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2010. The standard deviationshows that while the gap between countries has beendecreasing for urban electrification (going from 30% in2000 to 25% in 2012), the reverse is true for ruralelectrification (28% to 30%). This suggests that the ruralpopulation is being left behind in some countries.
Although SE4All data is only available for 2010 and 2012,the trends are similar for access to non-solid fuel forcooking. Access among the urban population of theaverage African country was 45.9% in 2012, with a medianof 37.2%. In 2010, the mean was 45.8%, with a median of36.9%. In rural areas the 2012 average was 21%, but themedian was only 4%, compared with 20.6% and 3.7% in2010.
The figures show that rural populations are beingbypassed by efforts to improve access to sustainableenergy. They suggest that the dynamics of improvingenergy access to 2020 and beyond will be complicated bydemographic and cost trends. These estimates suggestthat energy access initiatives have mostly targeted the‘low-hanging fruit’ in urban areas. As electrification inthese areas moves towards 100%, the rate of increasecould begin to fall off as focus shifts towards more costlyperiurban and rural energy access.
This could potentially slow progress towards meetingcontinental targets. However, this trend will be mitigated,to some extent, by the expected large relative increase inthe size of the urban population to 2020, compared withthe rural population. Further analysis of these dynamicswould be beneficial for identifying initiatives which willmake the maximum impact towards meeting continentaltargets while also revealing constituencies that could beleft behind.
AEEP | 19
Energy Access
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
m
m
m
m
m
2000:92.3%
2012:100%
2000:36.3%
2012:46.5%
2000:23.8%
2012:38.7%
2000:14.3%
2012:23.2%
2000:37.1%
2012:47.1%
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
m
m
m
m
m
2000:95.4%
2012:99.4%
2000:18.7%
2012:18.7%
2000:14.7%
2012:21.5%
2000:8.0%
2012:8.7%
2000:38.4%
2012:44.0%
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 2012
103132
166 173120
144168 174
Population
Population with access
5785
126151
180
235
308325
13 1938 45
6081
109 116
2033
63 74
176
234
311329
33 4465 73
95119
147 154
103
136166 172
120144
168 174
Population
Population with access
2844
58 61
180
235
308325
3 12 22 25
6081
109 116
10 18 26 28
176
234
311329
2846
64 6895
119147 154
North Africa
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
Access to electricityby region
Access to non-solid cooking fuelby region
West Africa
Central Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
North Africa
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
West Africa
Central Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
20 | AEEP
Energy Access
Momentum is building quickly behind efforts to giveaccess to clean, sustainable energy to the hundreds ofmillions of Africans who live beyond established grids –and who are unlikely to be integrated into nationaltransmission infrastructure for the foreseeable future.
European and other governments are providing ever largeramounts of financing and technical assistance to supportoff-grid schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Anincreasing number of African governments are integratingoff-grid solutions into their development plans. As SE4AllChief Executive Rachel Kyte has observed: “Decentralisedrenewable energy will be essential if we are to close theenergy access gap”. Kyte argues that “with advances intechnology and competitive prices, we now need tosupport leaders to introduce policy reforms and unlock thefinance to bring power to the people”.
Off-grid projects are usually small-scale, when comparedto ‘conventional’ projects that feed national grids. Wherepossible, they are included in the AEEP Power ProjectsDatabase, but their cumulative impact, to date, is verylimited when it comes to the overall figures. However,more projects are appearing to excite businesses along thewhole value chain – as reflected in the growingmembership of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE),the decentralised clean energy industry association, whichis an AEEP Focal Point.
Start-up businesses such as Jumeme Rural Power Supply
Ltd, which is running an independent solar PV hybrid mini-grid project in rural Tanzania, are attracting considerableinterest. Business models may have to evolve to attract thelarger sums of private capital that will make decentralizedpower projects a significantly bigger contributor toovercoming energy poverty in SSA.
Many of the best-known projects, such as RenewableEnergy Solutions for the Lake Victoria Ecosystem (Resolve)in Kenya and Jumeme, have business models underpinnedby grant finance from foundations and other NGO sources.But an increasing number of commercial operators areshowing interest in developing decentralised projects forisolated communities, as well as to serve wealthier clientssuch as industrial farms or resources industries. Privateequity and other investors are asking whether small-scaleprojects can be ‘bundled up’ to draw institutional investorsinto decentralised clean energy.
Decentralised, off-grid solutions are receiving strongsupport from European governments and institutions.Facilities include Energising Development (EnDev), a multi-donor partnership that promotes sustainable access tomodern energy services, and the EU’s ElectrificationFinance Initiative (ElectriFI). Aimed largely at SSA, ElectriFiopened for business with initial funding of €270m fromthe European Commission, in the expectation thatEuropean development finance institutions will leveragesignificantly more money as the programme rolls out.
A new generation of entrepreneurs goes off-grid
AEEP | 21
Installed capacity by technology, 2010
Total capacity: 153,017MW
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Hydroelectricity 31,430MW 20.5%
Pumped storage 1,580MW 1.0%
Wind 1,120MW 0.7%Solar 102MW 0.1%Geothermal 219MW 0.1%Other renewable763MW 0.5%
Nuclear1,830MW1.2%
Other thermal17,578MW
11.5%R e n e w
ab
l es
Gas58,349MW
38.1%
Coal40,046MW
26.2%
Installed capacity by technology, 2015
Total capacity: 179,611MW
Hydroelectricity 33,604MW 18.7%
Pumped storage 1,580MW 0.9%
Wind 3,132MW 1.7%Solar 1,546MW 0.9%Geothermal 554MW 0.3%Other renewable950MW 0.5%
Nuclear1,830MW1.0%
Other thermal20,314MW
11.3%R e n e w
ab
l es
Gas73,104MW
40.7%
Coal42,998MW
23.9%
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
The AEEP’s targets are based on the assumption that aunited Europe is well-placed to facilitate the promotion ofcross-border energy in and with Africa. This reinforces theenergy security of both Africa and Europe. Internationalco-operation is essential to safeguard energy supplies.Vast distances between sources of generation and theirfeedstocks and areas of electricity demand have led to anincrease in the number of regional interconnections indevelopment; these projects promise improved economiesof scale, cheaper electricity and energy supply to thosecountries with limited natural resources.
Integration is strongly encouraged by the Programme forInfrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). However, theslow pace of implementation for PIDA projects and othercross-border schemes have slowed the trend of increasesto electricity transfer , which was notable in the AEEP’s2014 Status Report. The database shows no new operatinglines completed since 2011, but recent progress onregional transmission projects suggests that, withimproved project delivery, the AEEP target of doublingcapacity by 2020 could be met.
Among other energy security targets, data collected by theAEEP Monitoring Tool shows that gas consumption inAfrica plateaued in 2012-14, following an almost two-foldincrease in the decade before. This was due to political andeconomic challenges that have also had an impact onnatural gas exports to Europe, which fell to 46bcm in2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006.
The AEEP’s focus on gas and renewables – which hasgathered pace since the 2010 baseline was established –allows a practical option for the diversification of energysectors This reduces exposure to fluctuating oil prices anddependence on high carbon-content fossil fuels, such ascoal, diesel and heavy fuel oil; in some cases it can lowerthe cost of generation. Diversification helps to combat anover-reliance on a single energy source. Many Africancountries with an over-dependence on hydroelectricitysuffer severe power shortages during times of drought,which are becoming ever more severe as regions of Eastand West Africa struggle with desertification. Thesepressures may lead hard-pressed governments to procurecostly – and often polluting – liquid fuel-fed rental power.
As the charts below show, based on data from the AEEPPower Project Database, changes can be observed since2010, as both hydroelectricity and coal account for lowerpercentages of the energy mix in 2015, while gas-firedcapacity has increased to over 40% of the total, and windand solar have increased almost three-fold. However,natural gas remains vastly under-utilised as a source offuel in most African economies.
Greater regional integration is under way – with notableprogress in the West Africa Power Pool, Southern AfricaPower Pool and East African regions – which will helpcountries to access a wider range of sources of generation.This will help them to diversify their energy mix and tradeelectricity to balance system costs, which is crucial toreinforcing the supply of sustainable, affordable power.
Energy Security
22 | AEEP
Energy Security
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE
CAPEVERDE
MAURITIUS
Réunion(Fr.)
SENEGAL
THE GAMBIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA
CÔTED’IVOIRE
BENIN
COMOROS
Mayotte(Fr.)
BURKINAFASO
GHANA
Western Sahara (under UNmandate)
SEYCHELLES
SOUTHSUDAN
Cabinda (Ang.)
A N G O L A
S O U T HA F R I C A
E T H I O P I A
S U D A N
C H A D
N I G E RM A L I
A L G E R I A
L I B Y AE G Y P T
N I G E R I A
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
TANZANIA
KENYADEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGOGABON
NAMIBIA
CAMEROON
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
TOGO
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
REP.
OF
CON
GO
(BRA
ZZA
VIL
LE)
SOM
ALI
A
MOZAMBIQUEPower pools:
Maghreb Electricity Committee (Comelec)
West African Power Pool (WAPP)
Central African Power Pool (CAPP)
Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP)
Former member of EAPP (Egypt: withdrew in Feb 2016)Potential members of EAPP (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan)
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
Unaffiliated country
Power line
Energy projects in PIDA-PAP 2020 (Programme forInfrastructure Development in Africa Priority Action Plan)
Energy projects in PIDA 2040
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; African Energy Atlas;Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
Angola is a member of CAPP and SAPP
Burundi is a member of CAPP and EAPP
Democratic Republic of Congo is amember of CAPP, EAPP and SAPP
Libya is a member of Comelec and EAPP
Rwanda is a member of EAPP and aapplicant member of CAPP
Tanzania is a member of EAPP and SAPP
Grand EthiopianRenaissance Dam (GERD)
Inga III HEP
BatokaGorge HEP
Lesotho Highlands HEP
Mphanda Nkuwa HEP
North-South PowerTransmission Corridor
Central AfricanInterconnection
Sambangalou HEP
West African PowerTransmission Corridor
North African PowerTransmission Corridor
Kaléta HEP
Ruzizi III HEP
Nigeria-Algeria(NIGAL) gas pipeline
Uganda-Kenya PetroleumProducts Pipeline
Rusomo Falls HEP
GOURBASSIHEP
FOMIHEP
BUMBUNA 3HEP
SOUBRÉHEP
LOMPANGAR
HEP
MEMVÉ’ÉLÉHEP
OPTIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF INGA
CAHORA BASSANORTE HEP
STIEGLER’S GORGE HEP
TANZANIA–KENYA GAS PIPELINE
MOZAMBIQUE–SOUTH AFRICA OIL PIPELINE
RUZIZI IV HEP
GILGEL GIBE III HEPGILGEL GIBE IV HEP
Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects
AEEP | 23
The electrification of sprawling urban and isolated ruralcommunities is a major challenge for a continent of suchdiverse countries, large expanses of territory and limitedresources. The high costs of building and operating anelectricity grid is reflected in low electrification rates andthe poor condition of much existing infrastructure. Thetechnical challenges of delivering electricity from sourcesof generation to consumer areas, often across largedistances, has proved a barrier to investment in largeconventional forms of energy production. The heavyinvestment required to build modern electricity grids mayresult in over-dependence on the cheapest forms ofproduction – such as polluting diesel power – whichfurther increases energy insecurity.
The interconnection of national grids across the continentis a major component in the Programme for InfrastructureDevelopment in Africa (PIDA) and other internationalinitiatives because it promotes economies of scale andcomprises an important step towards energy security. Theconstruction of cross-border transmission lines allows theimport and export of electricity generated by varioussources, providing a means of balancing system costswhile also allowing African countries to take advantage ofcheap generation in neighbouring countries.
The development of large-scale projects such as the RuziziIII hydropower project shared by Burundi, DemocraticRepublic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, or Ethiopia’s GrandRenaissance Dam, which will generate 6GW – not tomention the Grand Inga dam in DRC which couldeventually produce 50GW – make more sense when theycan supply multiple markets.
However, achieving such interconnections is a complexprocess in regions which lack harmonised legislation,compatible grids and integrated currencies or economies.This is not helped by the instability of many national gridsand shortages of installed generation capacity. Thesebottleneck have stalled several of the continent’s manyplanned projects. However, the future looks brighter as
plans are under way to reinforce existing grids and build anumber of high-voltage transmission backbones acrossthe continent.
Significant progress expectedIn 2014 the AEEP Status Report observed that estimatingthe transfer capacities of interconnections was animprecise science, and this remains the case. However,given that word of caution, the AEEP Power ProjectDatabase shows that approximate maximum transfercapacity in Africa almost doubled between 2005 and 2011from 5.48GW to 9.33GW. The updated database showsthat no new operating lines have been built since 2011.But statistics alone do not tell the whole story; whileprojects could have moved more quickly, there has beenprogress on a number of major regional schemes. Anumber of significant transmission projects are indevelopment or under construction across the continent –and these are expected to create a spike in interconnectioncapacity over the short- to medium-term.
Interconnections with a combined capacity of over 4.5GWare expected to be completed in East Africa in the comingyears, including a 220kV Rwanda-Uganda HV line. Thetransmission lines between Kagitumba, Mirama andShango were completed in October 2015, but delays inbuilding the Birembo and Shando substations means theinterconnection is not expected to be operational untilOctober 2016.
A 2GW capacity 500kV transmission line connectingEthiopia to Kenya, first conceived in 2006, is moving closerto reality with construction expect to start during 2016.Meanwhile, a 400kV transmission corridor linking Kenya,Uganda and Rwanda – expanding existinginterconnections – is also in development; it is intended toallow 500MW of electricity trade between the threecountries.
A number of projects in development will eventually seethe West Africa region fully interconnected. The 225kVCLSG line, which will connect the grids of Côte d’Ivoire,Liberia, Sierra Leone and Gambia, has been revived as aWest African Power Pool (WAPP) priority project. The1,400km high-voltage line will cost an estimated €365m,and will connect to the existing Côte d’Ivoire-Benin-Togo-Nigeria interconnection. CLSG is expected to be completedin 2017. Meanwhile finance is being raised to connect theSenegal River Basin Development Organisation (OMVS)network to the CLSG. The 225kV interconnection will
Energy Security
Doubling cross-border interconnections
GW
42000 10 12 20
forecast
08060402 15
6
8
10
12
14
Total transfercapacity inAfrica 9.33
5.15
11.6 (based on 2007–15 trend)
11.8 (based on 2000–15 trend)
11.1 (based on 2010–15 trend)
Source: AEEP PowerProject Database
24 | AEEP
initially connect theelectricity network ofGuinea to the southernbackbone, after which itwill be extended toGambia, Guinea-Bissauand Senegal. This €700mproject is expected to havea maximum transfercapacity of 800MW and becompleted by 2019.
Other projects under wayin West Africa seek toconnect Ghana’s grid toBurkina Faso and Côted’Ivoire, which is expectedin 2018 and 2019respectively.
In North Africa, 400kVinterconnections with atotal capacity of 4GW areplanned to link the grids ofAlgeria and Tunisia withthose of Italy and Spain.
The North Africa PowerTransmission Corridor – aPIDA-Priority Action Project– aims to add 4.5GW of HVtransmission linesconnecting Egypt, Libya,Tunisia, Algeria andMorocco.
Energy Security
Selected interconnections in development in East and West Africa
Project Voltage Est. commissioningdate
WAPP
Côte d’Ivoire-Ghana 330kV 2019
Ghana-Togo-Benin 330kV 2019
Nigeria-Benin 330kV 2020
Ghana-Burkina Faso 225kV 2018
Ghana-Burkina Faso-Mali 225kV 2020
Guinea-Mali 225kV 2019
Nigeria-Niger-Burkina Faso-Togo/Benin 330kV 2020
OMVG (Senegal-Gambia-Guinea-Guinea Bissau 225kV 2019
CLSG (Côte d’Ivoire-Liberia-Sierra Leone-Guinea) 225kV 2018
EAPP
Ethiopia-Kenya 500kV 2017
Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda 400kV 2016
Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2018
Ethiopia-Rwanda 500kV 2017
Rwanda-Burundi 220kV 2022
Rwanda-Uganda 220kV 2016
Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2016
African Power Interconnections
Line Voltage (kV)
Number of interconnections
<50 4
51-100 3
101-150 9
151-200 2
201-300 16
301-400* 16
>400 2
Source: AEEP Power Projects
Database
Increasing domestic use of natural gas in Africa remains animportant target for the AEEP as a means of improvingenergy security, raising living standards and helping tomitigate the effects of climate change.
Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015show that, despite a number of challenges, the historicaltrend has been positive, with an almost two-fold increasein consumption during the last decade. However,consumption plateaued between 2012 and 2014, holdingat around 120bcm as a variety of political andmacroeconomic challenges had an impact on output.
A key factor in this has been falling production levels inAfrica’s largest consumer, Egypt, where consumptiondeclined by almost 9% in 2012-14. The fallout from the2011 ‘Arab Spring’ had a substantial impact on the gassector, as investments dried up and existing fields beganto decline; Egypt turned from being an exporter to a netimporter of natural gas during this period. However, aperiod of political stability, a resumption of international
oil company (IOC) development plans and the discovery in2015 of the giant Zohr offshore gas field – where firstproduction is expected in 2017 – should result in Egyptreturning to significant growth in both production andconsumption in the period to 2020.
Elsewhere in North Africa, Algerian consumption has risensharply, from 26.4bcm in 2010 to 37.5bcm in 2014.Morocco is also looking to increased demand for gas forpower generation and industrial use, which it intends tomeet with a project to import around 5bcm/yr of liquefiednatural gas (LNG) to the port at Jorf Lasfar, from where itwill be piped to five new combined cycle gas turbine(CCGT) power stations and other infrastructure.
South African demand, which has stagnated at around4bcm, is also expected to grow significantly. Pending amajor discovery offshore or the exploitation of non-conventional reserves, South Africa has limited reserves,but a push for new gas-fired generation is planned, in apolicy led by the government but based on private sectorinvestment. This could be supplied from LNG or,potentially, from gas imported from neighbours notablyfrom Mozambique, which has also made a major offshorenatural gas find in the Rovuma Basin.
The likelihood that some of the major discoveries made inrecent years – in Mozambique, Tanzania and othercountries – coming on stream suggests an increase inoutput that will allow the ambitious AEEP target of215.6bcm of domestic consumption by 2020 to be met.
AEEP | 25
Energy Security
Doubling the use of natural gas
bcm
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
bcm
120
100
80
60
40
20
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062000 2013 2014
Rest of Africa
South Africa
Algeria
Egypt
38.4 40.8 42.5 45.149.6 52.6
24.5 26.5 29.7 31.7 31.6 36.5
20.0
96.1100.9 99.6
107.2
113.8121.8
63.869.6
74.881.1
85.489.1
58.4
24.3 25.427.2 26.3
27.831.0
20.5 20.221.4 22.0 23.2
23.7
19.8
3.53.7
3.4 3.93.9
4.0
1.2 1.01.0
2.1 3.13.5
1.2
29.931.0 26.5
31.932.5
34.2
17.621.8
22.725.3
27.525.4
17.4
51.4
120.2
33.4
3.8
31.6
48.0
120.1
37.5
4.1
30.5
Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000Ð14
Total consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
bcm
2000 10 12 20
projection
08060402 14
250
200
150
100
50
0
Consumption ofnatural gasin Africa 120.1
58.4
164.2
2020 target: 215.6
26 | AEEP
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
ST & P
CAPEVERDE
MAURITIUS
Réunion(Fr.)
SENEGALTHE GAMBIA
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
SIERRALEONE
LIBERIA
CÔTED’IVOIRE
BENIN
COMOROS
Mayotte(Fr.)
BURKINAFASO
GHANA
Western Sahara (under UNmandate)
SEYCHELLES
SOUTHSUDAN
A N G O L A
S O U T HA F R I C A
E T H I O P I A
S U D A N
C H A D
N I G E RM A L I
A L G E R I AL I B Y A
E G Y P T
N I G E R I A
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
TANZANIA
KENYA
DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO
GABON
NAMIBIA
CAMEROON
TUNISIA
MOROCCO
MAURITANIA
TOGO
EQUAT.GUINEA
MO
ZA
MB
IQU
E
REP.
OF
CON
GO
(BRA
ZZA
VIL
LE)
SOMALIA
SUDAN
Dar es Salaam
Mombasa
Lagos
Mossel Bay
Taba
IdkuMarsaAl-Brega
SkikdaArzew
Soyo
Secunda
Aboadze
Durban
Richards Bay
Maputo
Palma
Libreville
Lomé
El Arish
Aswan
ZeitBay
BenghaziMellitah
El Haouaria
Beni Saf
Jorf Lasfar
TunisTahaddart
TémaAbidjan
Cotonou
Lolabé
Ajaokuta
Saldanha Bay
CapeTown
Oranjemund
Mtwara
Djibouti Ville
AinSokhna
Damietta
Major gas fields and recentsignificant discoveries
Gas pipeline:Commissioned
Pipeline
LNG (liquefiednatural gas) project:Commissioned
Pipeline
LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal
LNG regasification plant and import terminalFUTURE LNG
IMPORTS
FUTURE LNGEXPORTS
FUTURE LNGEXPORTS
FUTURE LNGIMPORTS
FUTURE LNGEXPORTS
LNGEXPORTS
FUTURE LNGIMPORTS
LNGIMPORTS
LNG
EX
POR
TSO
N H
OLD
NILEDELTA
WESTERNDESERT
GHADAMES BASIN
GULF OFGABÈS
SIRTEBASIN
HASSIR’MEL BERKINE
BASIN
ILLIZIBASINSAHARA
FIELDS
NIGER DELTA
OFFSHORE CABINDALOWER CONGO BASIN
SONGO SONGO
PANDE
KUDU
IBHUBESI
BREDASDORP
FOXTROT,PANTHÈRE
OFFSHORE RUVUMA/ ROVUMA BASIN
TEN, JUBILE
E
BANDA
4 5
TEMANE
FLNG
FSRU
CHEWA, PWEZA
MZLNG
FLNG
CALUB,HILALA
ALNG
LEOPARD
M’BOUNDILITCHENDJILI
LONTRA
ELPS3 Future FSRU at:Jacqueville, Grand-Bassam(Côte d’Ivoire);Aboadze, Tema, Keta (Ghana);Cotonou (Benin)
4 OK LNG at Olokola Free Trade Zone:project on hold
5 Brass LNG:FID awaitedNLNG at Bonny:six trains operating, awaitingFID on Train 7, Train 8 plannedSE LNG at Qua Iboe:future export terminal
6 EGLNG at Punta Europa:operating; future EGLNG2
7 Future export terminal atLolabé, FLNG at Kribi(Cameroon)
36
7WAGP
KUDU, ELA
ND
SANKOFA
NIGERIA–ALGERIA (NIGAL) PIPELINE
GREATERTORTUE
UPPER EGYPT GAS PIPELINE
GPDF/GMEto Spain, Portugal
MEDGAZto Spain
1 Arzew LNG:GL1-Z & GL2-Z operatingGassi Touil LNG:GL3-Z operating
2 Skikda LNG:GL1-K & GL2-K operating
12
GALSIto Italy
GREENSTREAM
to Ita
ly
TRANSMED /
ENRICO M
ATTEI
to Ita
ly
SEGASELNG
ZOHR
FSRU
NAMIBIAThe Kudu gas-to-powerproject is making slowprogress following theWindhoek government
declaring it a priority projectin late 2012. A much delayedfinal investment decision isnow expected in early 2016,but a new upstream partner
is still needed.
TANZANIAA Chinese-built pipeline fromMtwara to Dar es Salaam is
increasing availability of gasfor domestic power
generation.
MAURITANIAGas from the
Banda gas fieldis to be used for
a domestic power plant.
EAST AFRICAGas reserves are mounting up
offshore following a string of majordiscoveries. MozambiqueÕs
estimated 100tcf of reserves alongwith TanzaniaÕs 57tcf is expected tosupply significant exports to Asia as
well as domestic power.
WEST AFRICALevels of gas flowing through the West AfricaGas Pipeline have failed to meet expectations.C�te dÕIvoire and Ghana are looking to developdomestic gas options and turn to LNG import
schemes for power generation.
Offtake at Tahaddart power plant
AGP to Jordan, Syria, Turkey
to Ashkelon, Israel
ABBREVIATIONSAGP: Arab Gas PipelineALNG: Angola LNGEGLNG: Equatorial Guinea LNGELNG: Egyptian LNGELPS: Escravos-Lagos Pipeline SystemFID: final investment decisionFLNG: floating LNGFSRU: floating storage & regasification unitGALSI: Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna ItaliaGME: Gazoduc Maghreb EuropeGPDF: Gazoduc Pedro Duran FarrellMZLNG: Mozambique LNGNLNG: Nigeria LNGSEGAS: Spanish-Egyptian Gas CompanyWAGP: West African Gas Pipeline
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; African Energy Atlas
EGYPTDeclining gas production has led to Egypt
becoming an importer of LNG, but a recoveryis expected in the coming years following aresumption of developments and the giant
30tcf Zohr discovery.
Closed2011,
upgraderequired
No exports from SEGAS since 2012,greatly reduced exports from ELNG
Energy Security
Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes
AEEP | 27
Supported by world-scale natural gas reserves, NorthAfrica has established itself as a major exporter of gas toEurope, through liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes andfour gas pipelines connecting Libya and Tunisia to Italy viaGreenstream and Transmed respectively, and Algeria andMorocco to Spain and Portugal through Medgaz andGPDF/GME (as shown in the map on page 26). Nigeria hasalso emerged as a significant exporter through the six-train Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) company.
African exports to Europe reached a peak in 2006 at84.9bcm, but have since been on the decline. According tothe BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, totalexports fell to just 46bcm in 2014. LNG exports to Europehave been in gradual decline since 2006, reaching a low of20.5bcm in 2014, aggravated by the collapse in EgyptianLNG exports from 2011. Pipeline exports also slumpedduring the period, to just 25.5bcm in 2014, with conflict inLibya halting exports through Greenstream.
Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to other continents aremaking slow progress. Angola’s new LNG export terminalhas never reached its expected production levels; it shutdown due to technical failure in 2014, only a year after itsfirst exports to Brazil, but was expected to reopen as thisStatus Report Update went to press. Angola, Nigeria andother exporters into the Atlantic Basin and other gasmarkets have been affected by price volatility and intensecompetition, notably from the production of gas fromshales in North America.
International companies are looking hard at majordiscoveries and export potential in Tanzania andMozambique. It is calculated that Mozambique hassufficient reserves to become the world’s largest supplierof LNG after Australia and Qatar, with a start toproduction expected in the early 2020s. The negativeimplications of prevailing low oil prices, which still feedinto gas pricing, may slow projects, but the growth in spotsales of LNG suggests new markets will emerge.
bcm90
80
70
60
30
20
0
50
40
10
bcm90
80
70
60
30
20
0
50
40
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062000 2013 2014
no
brea
kdow
n a
vaila
ble
41.9 45.639.2
35.139.3
31.0 29.4 30.8 34.342.3 43.3
34.3
78.9 78.7
72.7
78.9
66.3
61.757.5 58.4
63.264.5
77.5
84.9
61.537.0 33.1
33.531.2 22.4
26.4 29.032.4
30.2
35.241.6
27.2
30.0
20.8
25.5
20.5
50.8
46.0
African gas exports to Europe, 2000Ð14
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Total exports
By pipeline
LNG
Exporting gas from Africa to Europe
Energy Security
bcm
2000 10 12 20
projection
08060402 14
200
0
150
100
50
Africangas exportsto Europe
46.061.5
41.9
2020 target: 158.0
2020targets
GW
45
201520100
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
6GW
0
2
4
8GW
0
2010 2015 2020
GW
0
2010 2020
2010 2020
GW
2010 2020
60
20
40
6
4
2
3
0
1
2
2015
2015
2015
75% scenario: 8.30
AEEP target: 6.1250% scenario: 6.62
25% scenario: 4.93
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Hydroelectricpower
WindOtherrenewablesSolar
Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015,and AEEP 2020 targets
33.01
35.18
43.01
1.123.13
6.12
0.981.50
2.94
0.10
1.55
0.60
75% scenario: 55.30
AEEP target: 43.0150% scenario: 48.63
25% scenario: 41.97
75% scenario: 5.96
AEEP target: 0.60
50% scenario: 4.6125% scenario: 3.25
75% scenario: 2.98AEEP target: 2.9450% scenario: 2.49
25% scenario: 2.00
Linear trend: 37.36
Linear trend: 5.14
Linear trend: 2.05
Linear trend: 2.99
28 | AEEP
Baseline Monitoring
Renewable energy technologies are critical to thedevelopment of modern, clean and sustainable electricitysupply industries. Their technical development andgeographical spread is central to efforts to reduce globalgreenhouse gas emissions, as enshrined in the UNConference on Climate Change (COP21) Paris Agreement.This commitment is being followed up within a frameworkof high level meetings, including the COP22 talks, to beheld in Marrakech, Morocco on 7-18 November 2016.
With a stronger focus on renewables – drawn from thecontinent’s hydropower resources to solar, wind andbiomass, and a range of cutting-edge new technologies –many African countries are better positioned than everbefore to exploit the new deal COP21 offers to help themsupercede old, often polluting technologies.
The European Union is strongly committed to supportingthis trend, with a commitment to allocate at least 20% of
its development assistance portfolio for climate change-related projects. This will, of course, provide substantialfinance for renewable generation and transmissionprojects – some of it off-grid, as well as strengtheningexisting utilities and national transmission anddistribution systems. EU support will also seek to promotemore holistic programmes across a ‘nexus’ of sectors – forexample, linking energy projects to urban development,and access to water and sanitation.
Renewable technology has become increasingly cost-competitive in recent years. The biggest developments todate, in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Morocco,have demonstrated that large programmes can bedelivered on time and on budget. This is now beingreplicated elsewhere, including Egypt, which has majorwind and solar programmes.
For go-ahead governments and ambitious entrepreneurs,
Renewable Energy
AEEP | 29
emerging renewables industries provide a means ofbuilding a manufacturing base, delivering jobs anddiversifying ownership. The technologies offer particularadvantages: for example, they are well-suited for use inremote rural areas – with technology such as solarphotovoltaic (PV) comparatively simple to operate andconstruct – and currency risks are reduced, whencompared to many conventional thermal schemes.
The AEEP Power Project Database, created to provide themain data flows in the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report, hasbeen updated for this Status Report Update. The data forgeneration plants in operation and planned for completionin the period to 2020 suggest that in some sectors – suchas the installation of solar capacity – developments havelargely surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, whichwere agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industrywas at a very different stage of development.
However, this impressive performance is skewed by theprogress made in a handfull of countries; the experienceof many countries across Africa is that successfullyimplementing renewables projects remains problematicfor many developers, while transmission and distribution(T&D) systems have yet to catch up with developments.
Hydropower dominates at presentHydropower remains the dominant renewable technologysupplying African grids. Away from North Africa and RSA,there is only limited solar and wind power capacityfeeding the grid. The largest solar scheme operational inEast Africa remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom YouthVillage solar PV plant, developed by Gigawatt Global andcommissioned by Scatec Solar in September 2014.
In West Africa there are few projects of note operating,other than Masdar’s 15MW solar PV project in Mauritania,BXC Ghana’s 20MW solar PV plant (which begancommissioning tests late in 2015) and the 25.5MWCabeólica wind farm in Cape Verde. The 13.6MW Ngong IIwind farm remains the only solar or wind power projectlarger than 10MW operating in East Africa. There isvirtually no wind or solar power in Central Africa and verylittle in Southern Africa outside of South Africa.
…solar and wind pipeline is growingHowever, a growing pipeline of projects, backed by anincreasingly formidable array of financial instruments andtechnical expertise, is pushing governments to resolvelongstanding problems. Across the continent the marketfor renewable energy is deepening as legal and regulatoryreforms are required to keep pace with increasingly well-
Encouraging partnership: the RECP The AEEP’s Africa-EU Renewable Energy CooperationProgramme (RECP) is a multi-donor programme that hasfostered technical expertise and encouraged businesscooperation since 2010. RECP seeks to facilitate an enablingenvironment for renewable developments by supportingimproved regulatory frameworks and strengtheninginstitutions through its policy advisory services, meetings andother instruments. This includes support for European andAfrican entrepreneurs through the provision of dedicatedmarket information. RECP is also rolling out FinanceFacilitator, an advisory platform to support meso-scalerenewable energy project preparation in Sub-Saharan Africa.
visit: http://www.africa-eu-renewables.org
Renewable Energy
Installed renewable capacity by technology in 2010 and 2015, and 2020 projections
Total capacity: 35,214MW
Hydroelectricity31,430MW
89.3%
Pumped storage 1,580MW4.5%
Wind 1,120MW3.2%
Solar 102MW0.3%Geothermal 219MW0.6%Other renewables763MW2.2%
Hydroelectricity33,604MW
81.2%
Pumped storage 1,580MW3.8%
Wind 3,132MW7.6%
Solar 1,546MW3.7%
Geothermal 554MW1.3%Other renewables950MW2.3% Hydroelectricity
& pumped storage75.3%
Wind12.0%
Solar8.5%
Geothermal &other renewables
4.2%
2010 2020Total capacity: 41,365MW
2015
Source:AEEP Power Project Database
developed projects – and nascent markets are emerging.
Analysis of the project pipeline suggests Nigeria couldbring between two and four renewable energy projects toclose in 2016, with capacity of around 100MW. Also inNigeria, a procurement programme is being designed withsupport from Germany’s GiZ, which is likely to start upduring the year. More projects are expected to follow theBXC Ghana project, although issues remain to be resolved.Zambia, Senegal, and Madagascar have all joined theInternational Finance Corporation’s fast-moving ScalingSolar initiative.
Questions of transmissionFor solar and wind power in particular, the fragility ofantiquated transmission systems has been a longstandingimpediment, despite work to reinforce grids. Offtakeagreements have, in most cases, been underwritten bystate and development finance institutions – suggestingthe system of guarantees and insurance will be tested asan increasing number of renewable generation projectsdemand significantly more T&D infrastructure. Even RSA,with its sophisticated grid infrastructure, has struggled tokeep up with the geographical spread of renewablesprojects and pressures on its transmission system.
Other countries are likely to experience wind and solartransmission difficulties. Concerns have been raised overthe effect on grid stability of the landmark 310MW LakeTurkana wind project, under construction in Kenya, whichrequires completion of a 428km transmission line. ZambiaElectricity Supply Company has issues taking power fromtwo new 50MW Scaling Solar photovoltaic plants, while inUganda, hydroelectric power plants recently sat completedbut without access to the grid pending coordinationbetween local authorities. The good news is that theseperennial problems have now been widely recognised –and long overdue investments and reforms are starting tobe made in response.
Among renewables growth markets, Egypt may need toconsider strengthening its transmission backbone to takeelectricity generated at solar PV projects in the south;these are being developed under the first round of Cairo’sinnovative renewable energy feed-in tariff scheme.Negotiations were under way as this report went to pressto put in place a standardised power purchase agreement(PPA) for solar and wind power; the resulting document isseen by experts to be a critical factor in attractinginvestors to the market as Egypt rolls out its ambitiousdevelopment plans.
30 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
AEEP | 31
Renewable Energy
LIB
YA
EG
YP
T
TUN
ISIA
AL
GE
RIA
MO
ROC
CO
Wes
tern
Sah
ara
(un
der
UN
man
date
)
RAB
AT
ALG
IERS
TUN
IS
TRIP
OLI
CAIR
O
Fès
Mar
rake
ch
Ora
nC
onst
anti
ne
Sfax
Ben
ghaz
i
Cas
abla
nca
Giz
a
Ale
xan
dria
Ren
ewab
les
and
nu
clea
r pr
ojec
ts:
Com
mis
sion
edPi
pelin
e
Hyd
roel
ectr
ic(in
clu
din
g pu
mpe
dst
orag
e: P
S)
Win
d
Sola
r
Com
mis
sion
edPi
pelin
e
Sola
r/th
erm
alh
ybri
d
Was
te-t
o-po
wer
/bio
mas
s
Nu
clea
r
Mul
tipl
e-si
te p
rogr
amm
es a
re li
sted
in it
alic
s
Sou
rces
: AEE
P Po
wer
Pro
ject
Dat
abas
e; A
fric
an E
ner
gy A
tlas
Nile
ME
DI
TE
RR
AN
EA
NS
EA
Red
Sea
AK
HFE
NN
IR
EL A
YOU
N
OU
ARZ
AZA
TE
AÏN
BÉN
IM
ATH
AR KA
BER
TEN
E
SID
I DA
OU
D
TARH
UN
AA
L-M
UQ
RUN
EL D
AB
A
KU
REIM
AT
ZAFA
RAN
A
GEB
EL E
L ZE
IT
NA
G H
AM
MA
DI
ISN
A
ASW
AN
I, II
AM
OU
GD
OU
L(C
AP
SIM
)
BO
UJD
OU
R
AB
DEL
MO
UM
EN P
S
DA
RGU
INA
, ERR
AG
UÈN
E,IG
HIL
EM
DA
, MA
NSO
URI
A,
MÉT
LIN
E,K
CH
AB
TA
SID
I SA
LEM
ASW
AN
HIG
H
MEG
HA
ÏR
HA
SSI R
’MEL
NA
ÂM
A
HA
SSI
MES
SAO
UD
MIS
RATA
H
AL-
FATA
YEH
(DA
RNA
H)
OU
JDA
M’D
EZ E
L M
ENZE
L
TAN
GIE
R, S
END
OU
KA
BD
EL.T
ORR
ESH
AO
UM
A
NO
OR-
M
JBEL
LA
HD
ID
TISK
RAD
MEL
LAH
GU
LF O
F SU
EZ
ASY
UT
KO
M O
MB
O
FOU
M A
L-O
UA
D
TARF
AYA
TAN
-TA
N
MA
NSO
UR
EDD
EHB
IIF
RAN
E
DA
OU
RAT,
IM
FOU
T, S
.S. M
ÂA
CH
OU
OU
ED E
L M
AK
HA
ZIN
E
IDRI
SSI
6
4 5
138
910
1M
OH
AM
MED
V2
TAZA
3A
L-W
AH
DA
4EL
KA
NSE
RA5
OU
LJET
ES
SOLT
AN
E6
ALL
AL
EL F
ASS
I7
MID
ELT
8TA
NA
FNIT
EL
BO
RJ9
AH
MED
EL
HA
NSA
LI10
BIN
EL
OU
IDA
NE,
HA
SSA
N 1
er11
MA
NSO
UR
YOU
SSEF
12LA
LLA
TA
KER
KO
UST
AÏN
OU
SSER
A
BOU
GH
EZO
UL
TUN
UR
NEB
EUR
FERN
AN
A
HU
RGH
AD
A
3
AK
ARI
T
SAB
HATA
JURA
WES
T N
ILE
GU
LF O
F ZE
ITSI
WA
SAFI
-ESS
AO
UIR
A
LAFA
RGE
12
7
11
12
13A
FOU
RER
PS14
AL-
MA
SSIR
A15
SAFI
(OU
LAD
GH
AN
EM, O
UA
LID
IA)
1415
KH
ALL
AD
IN
AD
OR
OU
EDFO
DD
A
LAG
HO
UA
T
AIN
EL
IBEL
Mor
occo
Tota
l ren
ewab
le g
ener
atio
nca
paci
ty, 2
015:
2,5
81M
W(8
4% o
f to
tal g
ener
atio
n c
apac
ity)
Sele
cted
ren
ewab
les
proj
ects
:CO
MM
ISSI
ON
EDA
fou
rer
• Pu
mpe
d st
orag
e •
463M
WTa
rfay
a •
Win
d •
300M
WA
llal E
l Fas
si •
Hyd
ro •
240
MW
Al-
Wah
da •
Hyd
ro •
240
MW
Ou
arza
zate
(Noo
r I)
• So
lar
• 16
0MW
Tan
gier
• W
ind
• 14
0MW
PIPE
LIN
ESa
fi-E
ssao
uir
a •
Nu
clea
r •
1,00
0MW
Ou
arza
zate
(Noo
r II-
IV) •
Sol
ar •
420
MW
Noo
r M
idel
t •
Sola
r •
400M
WTi
skra
d •
Win
d •
300M
WSa
fi •
Win
d •
300M
WA
bdel
mou
men
• P
um
ped
stor
. • 3
50M
WK
oudi
a A
l-B
aida
II •
Win
d •
300M
WJb
el L
ahdi
d •
Win
d •
200M
WN
oor A
tlas
¥ S
olar
¥20
0M
WN
oor T
afila
let ¥
Sol
ar ¥
100
MW
Alg
eria
Tota
l ren
ewab
le g
ener
atio
nca
paci
ty, 2
015:
579
MW
(4%
of
tota
l gen
erat
ion
cap
acit
y)Se
lect
ed r
enew
able
s pr
ojec
ts:
COM
MIS
SIO
NED
Has
si R
’Mel
• S
olar
(25M
W) /
th
erm
al
(125
MW
) hyb
rid
Man
sou
ria
• H
ydro
• 1
00M
WD
argu
ina
• H
ydro
• 7
1MW
Ain
El I
bel •
Sol
ar •
20M
WLa
ghou
at •
Sol
ar •
20M
WK
aber
ten
e 1,
2 •
Win
d •
14M
W, 1
0MW
PIPE
LIN
ESo
lar P
V (p
hoto
volt
aic)
¥ 5
,443
MW
Win
d ¥
2,60
0M
WCS
P (c
once
ntra
ted
sola
r pow
er) ¥
1,00
0MW
(Sou
rce:
Son
elga
z Re
port
, Jun
e 20
15)
Meg
haï
r •
Sola
r (7
0MW
) / t
her
mal
(4
00M
W) h
ybri
dN
aâm
a •
Sola
r/th
erm
al h
ybri
d •
220M
W
Tun
isia
Tota
l ren
ewab
le g
ener
atio
nca
paci
ty, 2
015:
348
MW
(8%
of
tota
l gen
erat
ion
cap
acit
y)Se
lect
ed r
enew
able
s pr
ojec
ts:
COM
MIS
SIO
NED
Mét
line
• W
ind
• 12
0MW
Kch
abta
• W
ind
• 70
MW
Sidi
Dao
ud
• W
ind
• 54
MW
PIPE
LIN
ETu
Nu
r •
Sola
r •
2,25
0MW
Mel
lah
• P
um
ped
stor
age
• 40
0-50
0MW
Aka
rit
• So
lar
• 50
MW
Liby
aTo
tal r
enew
able
gen
erat
ion
capa
city
, 201
5: 0
MW
Sele
cted
ren
ewab
les
proj
ects
:PI
PELI
NE
Sou
ther
n R
egio
n W
ind
Farm
• 2
50M
WW
este
rn R
egio
n W
ind
Farm
• 2
50M
WA
l-M
uqr
un
• W
ind
• 24
0MW
Al-
Fata
yeh
(Dar
nah
) • W
ind
• 12
0MW
Sabh
a •
Sola
r •
100M
W
Egyp
tTo
tal r
enew
able
gen
erat
ion
capa
city
, 201
5: 3
,548
MW
(9%
of
tota
l gen
erat
ion
cap
acit
y)Se
lect
ed r
enew
able
s pr
ojec
ts:
COM
MIS
SIO
NED
Asw
an H
igh
Dam
• H
ydro
• 2
,100
MW
Zafa
ran
a •
Win
d •
547M
WA
swan
II •
Hyd
ro •
270
MW
Asw
an I
• H
ydro
• 2
38M
WG
ulf
of
Zeit
• W
ind
• 20
0MW
Kure
imat
• S
olar
/the
rmal
hyb
rid
• 14
0MW
Isn
a •
Hyd
ro •
86M
WPI
PELI
NE
El D
aba
• N
ucl
ear
• 4,
800M
WG
ulf
of
Suez
pro
ject
s •
Win
d •
2,43
0MW
Feed
-in T
ariff
Rou
nd 1
¥ So
lar ¥
2,3
00
MW
Feed
-in T
ariff
Rou
nd 1
¥ W
ind
¥ 2,
00
0M
WG
ebel
El Z
eit
proj
ects
• W
ind
• 96
0MW
Wes
t N
ile p
roje
cts
• W
ind
• 70
0MW
Kom
Om
bo I
& II
• S
olar
• 2
20M
W
Afr
ica
and
Euro
pe in
crea
sin
gly
inte
rlin
ked
Euro
pe h
as p
rom
oted
inte
rcon
nect
ion
and
gene
rati
on s
chem
es th
at c
ould
allo
w c
oun
trie
s on
th
e EU
’s s
outh
ern
fla
nk
to e
xpor
t en
ergy
pro
duce
dfr
om re
new
able
sou
rces
. The
Med
iter
rane
an S
olar
Pla
n Pr
ojec
t Pre
para
tion
Init
iati
ve (M
SP-P
PI) –
laun
ched
by
the
Euro
pean
Com
mis
sion
(EC)
, Eur
opea
nIn
vest
men
t B
ank
(EIB
), K
fW a
nd
the
Un
ion
for
th
e M
edit
erra
nea
n –
aim
sto
acc
eler
ate
the
impl
emen
tati
on o
f re
new
able
en
ergy
(RE)
, en
ergy
effi
cien
cy (E
E) a
nd
grid
con
nec
tion
pro
ject
s in
sev
eral
par
tner
cou
ntr
ies.
The
EC, E
IB a
nd
Euro
pean
Ban
k fo
r Re
con
stru
ctio
n a
nd
Dev
elop
men
t ar
eam
ong
inst
itu
tion
s pr
ovid
ing
fin
anci
al a
nd
tech
nic
al s
upp
ort
for
RE a
nd
EE p
roje
cts.
Not
all
the
plan
s to
con
nec
t th
e el
ectr
icit
y sy
stem
s of
Nor
th A
fric
an a
nd
Euro
pean
sta
tes
hav
e be
en s
ucc
essf
ul,
in a
ch
alle
ngi
ng
polit
ical
an
dec
onom
ic e
nvir
onm
ent.
One
of t
he m
ost a
mbi
tiou
s sc
hem
es, t
he D
eser
tec
Indu
stri
al In
itia
tive
, col
laps
ed in
201
3. H
owev
er, e
lem
ents
of t
he
con
cept
of u
sin
g N
orth
Afr
ica’
s va
st s
olar
pot
enti
al t
o su
pply
Eu
rope
wit
h c
lean
pow
er s
till
exis
t, w
hile
som
e ex
pert
s ar
e st
ill p
rom
otin
g th
e co
nce
pt o
f a
‘su
perg
rid’
un
itin
g th
e re
gion
’s p
ower
sys
tem
s.EU
init
iati
ves
incl
ude
th
e Re
new
able
En
ergy
Co-
oper
atio
n P
rogr
amm
e,la
unch
ed in
Sep
tem
ber 2
010.
Inte
rcon
nect
ions
wit
hin
Afr
ica,
and
bet
wee
nA
fric
a an
d Eu
rope
, are
cri
tica
l to
the
Afr
ica-
EU E
ner
gy P
artn
ersh
ip.
From
th
e Eu
rope
an C
omm
issi
on C
omm
un
icat
ion
on
Secu
rity
of
Ener
gy S
upp
ly a
nd
Inte
rnat
ion
al C
oope
rati
on,
Sept
embe
r 20
11“A
s a
maj
or e
ner
gy c
onsu
mer
, im
port
er a
nd
tech
nol
ogy
prov
ider
,th
e EU
has
an
inte
rest
in t
he
ener
gy p
olic
y de
velo
pmen
ts o
f it
spa
rtn
ers
acro
ss t
he
glob
e. It
is in
th
e EU
’s s
trat
egic
inte
rest
to
build
stab
le a
nd
lon
g-te
rm p
artn
ersh
ips
wit
h it
s ke
y su
pplie
rs a
nd
new
pote
nti
al s
upp
liers
. Th
e EU
’s lo
w c
arbo
n o
bjec
tive
s ca
ll fo
r a
new
type
of
part
ner
ship
wh
ere
ther
e is
pot
enti
al f
or r
enew
able
en
ergy
supp
lies.
Th
e U
nio
n h
as a
n in
tere
st in
ext
endi
ng
and
lifti
ng
to a
hig
her
leve
l its
en
ergy
coo
pera
tion
wit
h A
lger
ia…
Futu
re E
U-L
ibya
ener
gy c
oope
rati
on c
ould
en
com
pass
a w
ide
ran
ge o
f to
pics
incl
udi
ng
ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy, e
lect
rici
ty a
nd
ener
gy m
arke
t m
anag
emen
t.”
North African renewables projects
Hydropower can be a victim of climate change – asdisastrous water shortages in some regions leave damsbarely able to generate electricity – but it also holds a keyto providing clean, sustainable baseload energy, which canbe produced from the continent’s abundant hydrologicalbasins, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopiaand several other ‘water towers’.
The AEEP Power Project Database shows that, with itscapacity to generate large volumes of energy, hydroelectricpower (HEP) remains the dominant renewable technologyoperating on the continent – and will remain so in thepipeline of projects being developed in the period to 2020and beyond. Having turned away from large HEP projectsin the previous decade due to concerns aboutenvironmental and social impacts, many donors arelooking to become involved in the sector again, but with anew system of safeguards in place.
Judged by the data, progress towards the AEEP’s target ofadding 10GW capacity increases has not been substantial
in the period since the last Status Report. However, thetarget should be comfortably met as a number of largeprojects are due to come online over the 2016-20 period.
Between 2010 and 2015, 2,174MW of hydropowercapacity was added. Additions were fairly evenly spreadbetween the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with689MW added in West Africa, 560MW in Central Africa,515MW in Southern Africa, and 411MW in East Africa. Thisdoes not tell the whole story, however. Rehabilitation workhas been undertaken at a large number of dilapidatedfacilities since the 2000s, improving performance andreliability. With much of the continent’s 35,304MWhydropower capacity very old and operating well below itspotential output, rehabilitation has the potential to addlarge amounts of power to the grid.
Run-of-river potentialLarge HEP projects dominate the AEEP Power ProjectDatabase, but the AEEP is well aware that smaller projectscan have a very big impact in providing energy for a largeportion of the rural population in Africa. Work is underway to improve the commercial prospects of small run-of-river systems for rural electrification. In several countries,such as Rwanda and Uganda, considerable progress hasbeen made, supported by European instruments such asKfW’s GET-FIT scheme.
With the advantage of being able to provide cheap power24 hours a day, small-scale HEP has considerable potential.The cost of identifying new sites on a scale which makes
32 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric power
MW2,200
0
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
MW2,200
0
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062000 2013 2014 2015
588
36
2,290
515
258
492
7320
234186
463
3
441
593
394 438
New hydroelectric power generation capacity, 2000Ð15
Average HEPcapacity added each
year, 2000-15:439MW
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
GW
2010 2020
projections0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015
Installedhydroelectriccapacity
35.1833.01
55.30 (75% scenario)
Source: AEEP PowerProject Database
37.36 (linear trend)
43.01 (AEEP target)48.63 (50% scenario)
41.97 (25% scenario)
AEEP | 33
Renewable Energy
the mass production of turbines viable, has been an issue.However, improvements to satellite imaging andaccompanying software could help to identify thousandsof prospective sites (as it can optimise solar-powered mini-grids), suggesting substantial progress to come.
‘Huge pipeline of projects’African HEP will benefit from a huge pipeline of projectswhich are under construction and expected to come intooperation over the next few years.
Most eye-catching are developments in Ethiopia, whereconstruction of the huge 6GW Grand EthiopianRenaissance Dam (GERD) is well under way. Despiteserious concerns about water flows expressed bydownstream countries, GERD’s first two units are expectedto begin generating by the end of 2016. Ethiopian ElectricPower Company (EEPCo) reported that the first four187MW turbines at the 1,870MW Gilgel Gibe III dambegan operating early in 2016, with the rest expected tofollow later in 2016. EEPCo is considering other large HEPprojects, including Gilgel Gibe IV (2GW), Tams (1.7GW) andKaradobi (1.6GW). These developments will be welcomed,providing their environmental and social impacts are wellunderstood and safeguards put in place.
European companies have long been active in the HEPsector, as reflected in Italian firm Salini Costruttori’s
project pipeline in Ethiopia, and studies carried out byCoyne et Bellier (Tractebel Group), Fichtner and LahmeyerInternational. But China has built up the largest presencein building – and financing – HEP schemes. On the VictoriaNile in Uganda, Sinohydro has been building the 600MWKaruma dam since 2013; its next phase of development isdue to be finished in 2018, supported by a $1.4bn loanfrom the Export-Import Bank of China. China InternationalWater and Electric Corporation (CIWEC) is building the183MW Isimba dam, which has raised concerns from localcommunities and the World Bank because of its potentialimpact on tourism, the environment and cultural heritage.
In Cameroon, Sinohydro is building the 200MW Memve’eleHEP, for operation in mid-2017. Construction is expectedto start in mid-2016 at the 420MW Nachtigal HEP, which isbeing developed by EDF Energy, the International FinanceCorporation and the Cameroon government. In Côted’Ivoire, Sinohydro has been building the 274MW Soubrédam since 2013, and on the border between Benin andTogo it has begun work on the 147MW Adjarala HEP.
HEP projects that came online in 2015 include the 160MWLom Pangar dam in Cameroon and 28MW Nyabarongo I inRwanda. The 120MW Itezhi Tezhi plant in Zambia beganoperating in January 2016, although drought has cutoutput to a fraction of installed capacity. In Guinea, the240MW Kaleta dam was commissioned in mid-2015 byCIWEC – also contractor for the 450MW Souapiti dam.
GW
35
02000 02 04 06 08 10 12 15
30
25
20
15
10
5
1
2
2
33
4
5
5
6
5
7 89
9
10
10
1112
1311
14 15
16
17
1819 23
24
2021
22
25
ANGOLANPLATEAU
LESOTHOHIGHLANDS
CENTRAL HIGHPLATEAU
SOUTHERNHIGHLANDS
LUFILIANARC
ALBERTINERIFT
KENYANHIGHLANDS
ETHIOPIANHIGHLANDS
JOSPLATEAU
FOUTADJALLON
MIDDLEATLAS RANGE
28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.6 29.630.2 30.2
32.5 33.0 33.3 33.834.4 34.7 35.2
Hydrological basins and water towersHydroelectric power installed capacity, 2000-15
Sources:FAO-Aquastat;
UNEP (2010),Africa Water AtlasSource: AEEP Power Project Database
7 Niger8 Lake Chad9 Nile
10 Red Sea /Gulf of Aden coast
11 Rift Valley12 Shebelle & Juba13 East central coast14 Gulf of Guinea, east coast15 Congo16 Southwest coast17 Zambezi18 South interior19 Namibia coast20 Orange21 South Africa west coast22 South Africa east coast23 Limpopo24 Indian Ocean coast25 Madagascar
1 Northwest coast2 Mediterranean
south coast3 North interior4 Senegal5 West coast6 Volta
Total installedhydroelectric generationcapacity in Africa
With some of the world’s strongest irradiation levels, solarhas long been expected to have a big role to play in Africa’senergy future. That potential is now being confirmed, fromthe implementation of world-scale projects in Moroccoand Republic of South Africa (RSA), to impressive growth inthe rooftop solar market, which is helping to mitigate theimpact of intermittent power supply and provide at leastsome access to power for households not yet connected tothe grid.
Utility-scale solar parks have proven to be an effective wayof expanding generation in a short timeframe. Large solarprojects to date have not suffered the delays and costoverruns characteristic of some other technologies.Concentrated solar power (CSP) can now, in some cases,deliver 12 hours of storage, enabling generators to helpmeet morning peak demand.
Mini-grid technology continues to improve. Manycountries are working to put in place regulatory andfinancial structures to develop a commercial model forsolar powered mini- and micro-grids. Solar lamps, USBchargers and other products are having a transformativeimpact on households previously reliant on kerosenelamps and long walks to mobile phone charging stations.
For now, the AEEP Africa Power Project Database relatesoverwhelmingly to utility and commercial solar powerplants. But as rooftop and mini-grid markets expand therewill be a need to monitor these technologies more closelyto reflect the new African reality.
Exponential successThe solar sector’s exponential success is revealed by datathat show the AEEP Political Target of adding 500MWmore generation capacity by 2020 was met only four yearsafter the 2010 baseline was set – and is expected to havebeen met four times over by the end of 2016. Installedcapacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW, compared with103MW in 2010.
However, there is good reason to be cautious about the of
the solar industry’s success. While progress is undoubtedlybeing made, away from the major markets of North Africaand South Africa there is much to do before solar and windpower plants make an significant input into feedingnational grids. The largest solar power plant in East Africaremains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth Village solarPV developed by Gigawatt Global and commissioned byScatec Solar in September 2014. In West Africa there arefew projects of note operating other than Masdar’s 15MWphotovoltaic project in Mauritania and BXC Ghana’s20MW PV project.
Solar products appear to be having the most impact,notably rooftop solar programmes, in a majority of Africaneconomies. Utility-scale solar is being held back by lowtariffs, inadequate regulation and weak transmissionsystems. Efforts are under way to improve the situation,such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC)’sScaling Solar initiative, which is offering a holistic packageof support to prospective developers in three countries. InZambia, the first country to sign up to Scaling Solar, elevencompanies have prequalified to bid to build two 50MWplants. The initiative is forcing the government to confrontproblems around governance and transmission which, ifaddressed, will make solar more appealing to investors.
The KfW-sponsored Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs(GET-FIT) programme in Uganda has underpinned the10MW Soroti PV plant and a 10MW plant at Tororo isexpected to follow later in 2016. Development financeinstitutions (DFIs) are playing a key facilitating role inassisting governments in the design of appropriateprocurement programmes. Thus Germany’s GIZ is workingin Nigeria to design a new solar initiative. IFC hopes toinclude Nigeria in its Scaling Solar programme.
Models for utility-scale projectsMorocco and RSA demonstrate what can be achievedwhen a solar procurement programme is structuredeffectively. Morocco’s solar programme has benefittedfrom strong political support and robust enablingstructures, including Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy(Masen). This has been complemented by financial backingfrom the WBG, AfDB and other multilaterals, KfW andother DFIs. In the few months from end-2015 to early 2016Masen began commercial operations at the 160MW Noor ICSP project’s first phase. This is part of the planned510MW Ouarzazate solar complex, which should becompleted in the period to 2020 – a record of achievementwhich is encouraging greater participation by independentpower producers (IPPs).
34 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Solar power
MW
2010 2020
projections
0
6,000
2015
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Installedsolargenerationcapacity
1,546
102
5,958 (75% scenario)
Source: AEEP PowerProject Database
2,989 (linear trend)
602 (AEEP target)
4,606 (50% scenario)
3,254 (25% scenario)
AEEP | 35
Renewable Energy
Yearly sum of globalirradiation incident onoptimally-inclined equator-oriented photovoltaicmodules, 1985-2004 periodaverage, kWh/m2
More than 2,600
2,400 – 2,600
2,200 – 2,400
2,000 – 2,200
1,800 – 2,000
1,600 – 1,800
Less than 1,600
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MW
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
035 25 1
209
841
368
102 127 128
337
1,178
1,546
Photovoltaic solar electricity potentialSolar generation capacity, 2010Ð15
Average solarcapacity added each
year, 2010-15:246MW
Total installedsolar generation
capacity in Africa
New solarcapacity
Sources: HelioClim-1database;
PVGIS, EuropeanCommunitiesSource: AEEP Power Project Database
Other countries are investing heavily, and attracting funds,to utility-scale solar, including Egypt, which is promotingIPPs. Across the continent, larger scale solar schemes arebeing promoted. Notable developments are expected inenergy poor regions such as the Sahel, where Chad,Senegal and other governments are promoting utility-scale schemes.
A flexible technology for off-gridDFIs and private developers are increasingly focusing onoff-grid and mini-grid solutions. By creating the rightenvironment for private sector operators and investors, anexponential increase in activity could follow in areasunlikely to be connected to the main grid systems formany years. Offgrid advocates argue that this wouldcircumvent the challenge of piecing together weaktransmission and distribution systems while expandingaccess to energy poor communities.
An increasing number of African countries are putting inplace legislation and regulations to support nascent off-grid and mini-grid industries. DFI initiatives and fundshave proliferated to support this. However, work remainsto be done to establish model commercial and regulatorysystems and significant questions remain to be answeredabout the ability of off-grid solutions to meet theambitious targets set for them.
Among important initiatives, the European Commissionand Dutch DFI the Netherlands Development FinanceCompany (FMO) began implementation of theElectrification Finance Initiative (ElectriFI) to coincide withthe UN Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in late2015. Rwanda has requested $50m from the Scaling UpRenewable Energy Programme (SREP) to back itsRenewable Energy Fund, which aims to catalyse privatesector investments in off-grid and mini-grid solar PV bydeveloping a comprehensive strategy for off-gridelectrification.
Pilot mini-grid projects initiated by NGOs and charitableand corporate foundations have become sufficientlyestablished for private sector developers and governmentutilities to begin pilots of their own (see Access).
The market for solar products such as lanterns and mobilerecharging stations is growing rapidly. SolarAid – a charityfounded by renewable developer SolarCentury and fundedin part by 5% of its profits – and its social enterpriseSunnyMoney has sold 1.7m of its solar lamps, priced at$10 each, in rural communities in Africa. It aims toeliminate the use of kerosene lanterns, which areexpensive and contribute to indoor air pollution. Themarket is deepening. In its 2015 impact report, SolarAidsaid that in 2009 it sold just 5,000 lanterns in Tanzania butby autumn 2015 had sold a cumulative 904,528.
36 | AEEP
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062000 2013 2014 2015
3,000MW
0
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
3,000MW
0
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250121
5
177265
1368754
0
305
9 10 011
196
881
712673 678
854
1,120
1,2561,342
228 228
533 542 552 552
174
1,538
2,419
3,132Wind generation capacity, 2000Ð15
Total installedwind generation
capacity in Africa
Average windcapacity added each
year, 2000-15:186MW
New windcapacity
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Renewable Energy
As one of the cheapest sources of renewable power, wind
technology can play a big role in the development of the
electricity supply industry in Africa. To date, major wind
power projects have been largely restricted to the
industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.
The industry suffers logistical constraints on the
continent, for example a lack of large cranes and poor
access roads, while also being heavily impacted by
disputes over land rights and compensation. But it has
the potential to drive industrial development, as well as
produce essential energy; this is underlined by Siemens’
decision to invest in a turbine manufacturing plant in
Morocco and a growing number of projects in Republic of
South Africa (RSA). Investment in RSA has been
encouraged by the great success of the government’s
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
Procurement (REIPPP) programme.
An analysis of projects that have announced expected
commercial operation dates in the AEEP Power Project
Database suggests the AEEP Political Target of adding
5,000MW wind power by 2020 can be met, by ensuring
that 43% of projects in the pipeline are completed on
time. Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been
added, more than doubling the 2010 capacity of
1,120MW.
The gains are heavily concentrated in the continent’s most
industrialised countries. The regional breakdown shows
that most countries are being left behind. While North
Africa has capacity to date of 1,807MW and South Africa
Wind power
MW
2010 2020
projections0
8,000
2015
6,000
4,000
2,000
Installedwindgenerationcapacity
3,132
1,120
8,299 (75% scenario)
Source: AEEP PowerProject Database
5,144 (linear trend)6,120 (AEEP target)6,616 (50% scenario)
4,934 (25% scenario)
AEEP | 37
Renewable Energy
1,070MW, East Africa has only 223MW, West Africa31.4MW, and Central Africa and Southern Africa (excludingRSA) have less than 1MW between them.
The project pipeline looks set to maintain this trend, withonly 533MW projects planned in East Africa and 256MWin West Africa. In Southern Africa (ex-RSA) only 45MW isplanned.
Problems to confrontKenya shows the opportunities and challenges that Sub-Saharan countries are facing in developing wind powerprojects. While the 310MW Lake Turkana project has beensuccessfully financed and is scheduled to start a three-year commissioning process later this year, the 428kmtransmission line required to connect the project to thegrid has been delayed following problems with wayleave.This means that offtaker KenGen may have to make paymentsunder the take-or-pay arrangement for power it cannotevacuate until the transmission line project is complete.
There are also issues of grid stability in Kenya and manyother jurisdictions, including RSA. DFIs have been workingwith Kenyan national transmission utility Ketraco to helpmitigate the impact of integrating Lake Turkana’s windpower with the grid. Such is the concern, that the WorldBank has pulled back from the transmission project.
Issues of securing land can be problematic. Also in Kenya,the 60.8MW Kinangop project has run out of funds afterlong-running – and at moments violent – disputes overcompensation for landowners. These issues are a featureof developing wind power projects across the continent.There have also been protests in South Africa over somewind projects.
Procurement successesSuch issues cannot be ignored by developers and theirfinanciers, but the wind sector can also point to someconsiderable successes. These include the Cabeólicaproject in Cape Verde,which was showcased in the 2014Status Report (page 33).
The largest procurement programmes in wind arecurrently in Egypt, Morocco and RSA. Egypt’s 547MWZafarana wind complex is the largest on the continent,and more units are planned to be added through thecountry’s feed-in tariff and other programmes.
Falling costs have made wind very competitive. Havingcalled for bids to develop five wind power projects with850MW combined capacity, Moroccan state utility OfficeNational de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable (ONEE)
eventually received a leading bid of $0.03/kWh from sevensubmissions.
In RSA, onshore wind power projects have proved by farthe cheapest source of projects procured through theREIPPP programme. In the fourth round of the programmethe fully indexed price of power was R0.62 ($0.04)/kWh.The REIPPP’s success is evident in the price, which hasbeen halved from R1.363 ($0.09)/kWh in the first round.
Wind power has proved successful in developing localmanufacturing bases in North and South Africa. Siemens isplanning turbine blade manufacturing facilities inMorocco and Egypt while facilities have already beenopened in South Africa, which have supplied componentsto wind power projects in the country.
Generating electricity from biomass and geothermalsources offers many advantages. Both energy sources canprovide reliable baseload power at low prices. Geothermalcan be developed on a large scale and is well suited tosupplying the grid 24 hours a day; costs can be low, atbetween $0.04-0.08/kWh. Exploiting this technologyforms part of the rationale behind the Ethiopia-Kenyainterconnection project, where Kenyan geothermalbaseload is likely to be traded for peak hydropower fromEthiopia, once the transmission line is complete. Biomassfuelled by agricultural waste can be used to power remoteareas and stabilise the grid. However, progress expandingthe use of both has been slow.
Despite huge geothermal resources along the Rift Valley –Africa’s most promising region for harnessing energy fromthe earth’s core – only the Olkaria complex in Kenya hasbeen exploited so far on a large scale, while developmentsat other sites have been delayed. There is a serious push todevelop geothermal power in Ethiopia (led by the 1GWCorbetti project), and Djibouti has projects, but othercountries have yet to take off. Biomass is similarly limitedin its use for electricity generation to more industrialisedcountries, despite it potential in poorer economies.
The AEEP’s Power Project Database shows that some1,410MW will need to be added from other renewablesources to treble the amount of generation from biomassand geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Analysisof the current project pipeline suggests that because thetimelines for a number of larger geothermal projects inKenya have slipped, 73% of projects would have to becompleted on time for this target to reached. Between2010 and 2015 the completion rate was around 75%.
While biomass in 2015 had more capacity – 950MWcompared with 554MW for geothermal – the projectpipeline is considerably smaller. The lead times on biomassprojects are potentially quite short, and the industry isresponsive to positive regulatory and financial reforms,but a majority of developments are moving slowly. Atcurrent rates, geothermal capacity is anticipated to
overtake biomass in around 2017-18. Other renewableresources are being explored, but have yet to impact onthe AEEP data. These include landfill gas, of which manyprojects are planned, but take an age to develop.
Geothermal projects have benefitted from financialinstruments designed to overcome the risks associatedwith the early stages of development, led by theGeothermal Risk Mitigation Facility (GRMF), which hasawarded grants in Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya,Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda to private companies andstate-owned enterprises. The GRMF was established by theAfrican Union Commission (AUC), German Federal Ministryfor Economic Co-operation and Development and EU-Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund (ITF) via KfW in 2012. Itreceived an initial €20m from Germany and €30m EU-ITF-KfW. The UK has come in with £47m, since the 2014 StatusReport (page 49), where the GRMF was a Case Study.
Biomass projects have predominantly been developed byprivate sector industrial players to meet some or all oftheir own power requirements.In 2015, 52.2% of biomasscapacity was in Southern Africa, overwhelmingly in SouthAfrica, 37.4% in East Africa, 5.4% in West Africa, 2.9% inNorth Africa, and 2% in Central Africa.
38 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Tripling other renewables
MW
2010 2020
projections0
3,000
2015
2,000
1,000
Installedgeothermal andother renewablegenerationcapacity 1,503
981
2,978 (75% scenario)
Source: AEEP PowerProject Database
2,054 (linear trend)
2,943 (AEEP target)
2,487 (50% scenario)
1,995 (25% scenario)
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MW
0
800
600
400
200
35
219 219 222258
554 554
762 763 778 788 788
950
0 01 31536
10
296
0 0
162
Biomass and geothermal generation capacity, 2010Ð15
Total installedbiomass generation
capacity in Africa
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Total installedgeothermal generation
capacity in Africa
New geothermal capacityNew biomass capacity
AEEP | 39
91042%
0.26%
0
2,56199%228
36%
128 39%
5 14%
3883%
61136%
0.10.4%
0
85%
2,54984%
1,42063%
12636%
17126%
88 60%
710%
00
1,64748%
72884%
1,11845%
0
145100%
30093%
2,24579%
43173%
4,70210%
183 95%
2,45287%
75339%
0.50.4%
8135%
4417%
4625%
65534%
0
1,58249%
368 61%
0
510%
29154%
159%
42%
7,28737%
0.50.1%
54 35%
32548%
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
UGANDA
RWANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE
CAPEVERDE
MAURITIUS
Réunion (Fr.)
SENEGAL
THE GAMBIA
GUINEA-BISSAU
GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA
CÔTED’IVOIRE
BENIN
COMOROS
Mayotte(Fr.)
BURKINA FASO
GHANA
A N G O L A
E T H I O P I A
S U D A N
C H A D
N I G E RM A L I
N I G E R I A
MADAGASCAR
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
ZAMBIA
TANZANIA
KENYADEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO
GABON
NAMIBIA
CAMEROON
MAURITANIA
SOMALIATOGO
EQUAT. GUINEA
REPUBLIC OF CONGO(BRAZZAVILLE)
MOZAMBIQUE
SOUTH AFRICA
SOUTHSUDAN
SEYCHELLES
Major renewable andnuclear projects:Commissioned
Pipeline
Hydroelectric(including pumpedstorage: PS)
Wind
SolarMultiple-site programmes are listed in italics
Total renewable generation capacity, 2015 (MW)
As percentage of total generation capacity00
00%
CommissionedPipeline
Geothermal
Waste-to-power/biomass
Nuclear
Ocean powerSources: AEEP Power Project Database;African Energy Atlas
Inga
GERD
Upper White Nile
Mambilla
Lauça,Nhangue
C
Stiegler’s Gorge
CahoraBassa
Gilgel Gibe
Koeberg
Mandaya
Batoka Gorge,Devil’s Gorge
Thyspunt
Caculo Cabaça
Mphanda Nkuwa,Boroma
Ingula PS
Cambambe
Capanda
TombuaGove
Adjarala
Maun
Orapa
MorupuleSelebi-Phikwe
Noumbiel
Siguvyaye
10 Edéa, Song Loulou11 Grand Eweng, Song Mbengué
Dimoli
SoundaGorge
Chollet1011
Merowe
8
Wanie- Rukula
Ruzizi
Kalengwe,Sombwe
Mana
Nzilo
Zongo
Assal
Tendaho
Baro
Genale
Tana- Beles
Tekeze
BAyisha
EAdama
A Tulu MoyeB Debre-BerhanC KaradobiD Beko AboE Halele-
WerabesaF Corbetti
D
Booué
Bui9
Tana River3
1 Bubisa2 Lake Turkana3 Turkwel3 Emuruangogolak-
Barrier4 Bogoria-Silali5 Menengai6 Olkaria7 Ayago, Karuma,
Murchison Falls8 Bujagali, Kiira,
Nalubaale9 Kampala
4
6
2 1
5
Kobong PS
Lofa-Mano
Nkula
Manantali
Nouakchott
Lupata
Updrafttower
Lüderitz
Ruacana
Baynes
Kandadji
Gambou
MakurdiShiroro
Jebba
Kainji
Ikom
Karisimbi
Taiba Ndiaye
Sambangalou
Bumbuna
Drakensberg PS
Palmiet PS
Gariep
Vanderkloof
Cookhouse area
Port Elizabeth area
Saldanha area
Upington& Karashoek area
Kotulo Tsatsi
Kathuarea Felixton
KajbarDal
Shereik
Red Sea coast
Roseires
UpperAtbara& Setit
KenanaNyala
Ngwempisi
Rusumo Falls
Rumakali,Songwe
Mnyera
Singida
Mtera
Mbeya
7
89Mubuku
Lower Kafue GorgeKariba
Mumbotuta
Mambilima
Bulawayo, Gwanda
Mania River
Ikopa River
Betsiboka River
Makeni
De Aar area
Méouane
1 Kaléta2 Grand Kinkon3 Souapiti4 Amaria5 Tiboto6 Louga, Soubré7 S Bananda8 Taabo9 Akosombo
1 23
4
56 7
Mankpan
Ada
NangbetoLokoja
Sendjé
GrandPoubara
Dongola
Tams
A
F
Cafula
Mpata
Munyati
Befanova
Duynefontein
Pofadder area
Prieska area
Central AfricaSelected renewables projects(commissioned and pipeline):CAMEROONGrand Eweng • Hydro • 1,000–2,000MWSong Mbengué • Hydro • 930MWDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGOGrand Inga (incl. Inga III) • Hydro • up to 44GWInga I & II • Hydro • 1,775MWWanie-Rukula • Hydro • 688MWRuzizi I-IV • Hydro • 509MWREPUBLIC OF CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE)Sounda Gorge • Hydro • 1,000MWGABONBooué • Hydro • 410MW
West AfricaSelected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline):CÔTE D’IVOIRELouga • Hydro • 280MWTiboto • Hydro • 225MWTaabo • Hydro • 210MWGHANAAkosombo • Hydro • 1,020MWAda • Ocean • 1,000MWMankpan • Solar • 1,000MWBui I-IV • Hydro • 400MWGUINEASouapiti • Hydro • 515MWAmaria • Hydro • 300MW
LIBERIALofa-Mano • Hydro • 518MWNIGERIAMambilla • Hydro • 3,050MWMakurdi • Hydro • 1,062MWLokoja • Hydro • 1,052MWKainji • Hydro • 760MWSENEGALTaiba Ndiaye • Wind • 215MWSIERRA LEONEBumbuna I & II • Hydro • 202MWMakeni • Biomass • 30MW
East AfricaSelected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline):DJIBOUTIAssal • Geothermal • 150MWETHIOPIAGrand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) • Hydro • 6,000MWGilgel Gibe III & IV • Hydro • 3,870MWBeko Abo • Hydro • 2,100MWCorbetti • Geothermal • 1,000MWTulu Moye • Geothermal • 800MWDebre Berhan • Wind • 400MWTendaho Sugar Factory • Biomass • 40MWKENYAEmuruangogolak-Barrier complex ¥ Geothermal ¥ 2,000MWBogoria-Silali I–IV • Geothermal • 2,000MWMenengai I–II • Geothermal • 1,200MWLake Turkana • Wind • 310MW
MADAGASCARBefanova • Hydro • 700MWRÉUNIONWave power under developmentSOUTH SUDANUpper White Nile ¥ Hydro ¥ 5,000MWSUDANSolar Euromed ¥ Solar ¥ 2,000MWMerowe • Hydro • 1,250MWShereik • Hydro • 420MWRed Sea coast • Wind • 180MWTANZANIAStiegler’s Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MWMnyera • Hydro • 700MWMbeya I & II • Geothermal • 200MWSingida I & II • Wind • 200MWUGANDAMurchison Falls • Hydro • 642MWAyago N & S • Hydro • 600MWKaruma • Hydro • 600MWBujagali • Hydro • 250MW
Southern AfricaSelected renewables and nuclear projects (commissioned and pipeline):ANGOLALauça • Hydro • 2,120MWCaculo Cabaça • Hydro • 1,560MWCapanda • Biomass • 355MWLESOTHOKobong • Pumped storage • 1,200MWMOZAMBIQUECahora Bassa • Hydro • 2,075MWMphanda Nkuwa • Hydro • 1,500MWCahora Bassa Norte • Hydro 1,245MWNAMIBIARuacana • Hydro • 424MWBaynes • Hydro • 400MWSOUTH AFRICAThyspunt or Duynefontein • Nuclear • up to 9,600MW
REIPPP (Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement) Programme, Rounds 1-4 ¥ Various ¥ 6,298MWKoeberg • Nuclear • 1,800MWIngula • Pumped storage • 1,332MWDrakensberg • Pumped storage • 1,000MWZAMBIALower Kafue Gorge • Hydro • 1,550MWKariba North Bank • Hydro • 1,080MWZAMBIA/ZIMBABWEBatoka Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MWDevil’s Gorge • Hydro • 1,200MWZIMBABWEBulawayo, Gwanda, Munyati • Solar • 100MW eachKariba South Bank • Hydro • 1,050MW
Sub-Saharan renewables projects
Renewable Energy
40 | AEEP
Energy efficiency (EE) is a core component of measures forreducing carbon emissions and for raising economicperformance by the ensuring scarce resources are notwasted. However, across Africa the benefits of EE are oftenoverlooked, or policies are poorly implemented, eventhough well-designed EE programmes can reduce costs forhouseholds and enterprises. Even in one of the mostproactive countries, Morocco, CGEM employers associationpresident Miriem Bensalah Chaqroun observed in April2016 that “the level of implementation of planned energyefficiency investments hasn’t reached 5%”.
Efficiency is difficult to quantify It manifests itself indifferent ways – in better appliances, new industrialprocesses, changes in economic structure and an effectiveelectricity supply industry . Initiatives to improve EE cantake many forms, from improved insulation to regulations.
As a result, there are a number of different ways tomeasure EE, each of which has deficiencies. With proxiesfor EE, such as total primary or total final energy intensity,data is relatively easy to retrieve, but difficult to interpret.These potentially reflect a wide range of determiningfactors, such as climate (heating and cooling needs),economic structure (in terms of sectors), the size of acountry (with regard to transport needs), the exchangerate, electrification rate or extent of biomass usage.
As the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report observed, energyintensity can be at least as much an indicator of nationaleconomic performance, since it captures structuralchanges and fluctuations in an economy at least as muchas any changes in EE. Therefore, a low level of energyintensity does not necessarily mean high efficiency. This isnicely demonstrated by an example taken from theInternational Energy Agency – of a small, service-basedcountry with a mild climate that would certainly have amuch lower intensity than a large industry-based countryin a very cold climate, even if energy is more efficientlyconsumed in the latter country than in the first.
Sectoral energy intensity, as shown in the table on page40, provides somewhat more informational value since itallows an initial assessment of trends in energyconsumption and comparisons across countries. Thenthere are disaggregated indicators, such as sub-sectoral orend-use indicators within various sectors, such asresidential, services, industry, or transport (passenger andfreight). Process or appliance indicators capture even moredisaggregate information at the unit energy consumption
level. One indicator example could be energy consumptionper unit of appliance.
In this report – for reasons of data availability andconsistency with earlier reporting – final energyconsumption per GDP at purchase power parity has beenchosen as the main indicator. Data is drawn from theSE4All Global Tracking Framework.
For the electricity sector, network losses are a measure ofan efficient sector in good condition. Reducing lossesthrough transmission and distribution reduces the needfor generation, while at the same time improving thequality of supply by increasing the availability of powerand stability of the grid.
AEEP workstreamThe AEEP established an Energy Efficiency Workstreamwith the aim of supporting stakeholders in the privatesector, academia and civil society. It has been preparing adraft strategic plan to 2017, with its first workshop to beheld in May 2016. Work is ongoing to identify stakeholdersto map EE initiatives and strategies, which will be used todevelop a matrix containing clear recommendations topromote energy efficiency in an African context.
Energy Efficiency
To complement the quantitative monitoring of energyefficiency data, a table was compiled for the 2014 AEEPStatus Report that showed the extent of legal andinstitutional infrastructure across the continent. TheEnergy Efficiency Laws table (on Status Report pages 56and 57) – and associated collection of relevantlegislation and regulations – could be updated as afuture workstream, to provide an overview of the extentof policy coverage in each of the 55 countries covered,and to monitor progress in introducing andimplementing legislation to help implement policy,create or reinforce institutions that regulate energyefficiency measures, provide financial incentives andoversee projects.
Work is under way to support the regulatory frameworkand enabling environment for improving energyefficiency, with support from the EU’s TechnicalAssistance Facility (TAF) for the SE4All Initiative andother European instruments.
EE Laws and Regulations
AEEP | 41
Energy Efficiency
The data used from the World Bank SE4All databasesuggest the African continent has seen a decrease inaverage final energy intensity of 20% (or an average 2.9%per year) from 7.9MJ at 2011 US dollar ($) purchasingpower parity (PPP) to 6.3MJ/$ PPP over the period 2000 to2012. This compares with the more modest decrease of 6%(or average 1.8% per annum) from 6.7MJ/$ PPP to 6.3MJ/$PPP between 2010 and 2012. The data thus shows that aseemingly positive trend – given all data and conceptualqualifications – seems to have slowed down considerably.
In comparison, average primary energy intensity for Africa(encompassing data from 53 African countries) hasdecreased from 10.4MJ/$ PPP in 2000 to 8.9MJ/$ PPP in2012 (average annual rate of 1.3%) – or by an average 2%per year between 2010 and 2012 (9.2MJ/$ PPP in 2010).
Average energy intensity by sector – as measured by theratio between energy consumption in the respective sectorand the sector value-added at purchasing power parity (orthe number of households for the residential sector) –seems to have decreased in almost all sectors – except foragriculture – over the past 12 years. However, data for the
past three years points to a stagnation of this trend, too.
The data is surprisingly consistent across regions, asidefrom Southern Africa. Final energy intensity in the averageNorth African country was 6.4MJ/$ PPP in 2012, in EastAfrica it was 5.4MJ/$ PPP, in West Africa 5.5MJ/$ PPP andCentral Africa 4.8MJ/$ PPP. The figure in Southern Africawas 9.6MJ/$ PPP, or 10.2MJ/$ PPP without South Africa.This suggests caution is required when working with theenergy intensity target.
It is clear that less industrialised regions of Africa have atendency to have lower energy intensity, so it is possiblethat the lower intensity may be down to a much smallerindustrial base. However, a closer inspection of the figuresshows that many of the poorest countries such as theDemocratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Liberia havevery high energy intensity. While it is possible that thelimited industrial base in these countries is energyinefficient, it should also be remembered that anunusually low GDP could result in a high energy intensityfigure.
The regional breakdown implies that energy intensitymeasures might most usefully be targeted at theindustrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.The scale of industry in these countries means that thepotential energy efficiency savings are substantially larger.
Another aspect of the way energy intensity is measured –energy use divided by GDP– is that the figure may fallbecause the industrial base is shrinking. For example, it ispossible that energy intensity may decline in line with thefall in mining output across the continent, due to low
Energy intensity
2000
MJ/$
10
8
6
4
2
0
MJ/S
10
8
6
4
2
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
7.9 7.77.4
7.7 7.6 7.5 7.37.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6
6.3
Average energy intensity of final energy, 2000Ð12
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework US$ 2011 purchasing power parity
%
32000 10 12 20
projections
08060402
4
5
6
7
8
9
US$ 2011 purchasingpower parity
Average energyintensity offinal energy
6.33
7.90
4.83 (based on 2010–12 trend)
5.52 (based on 2000–12 trend)
42 | AEEP
commodity prices, for example. In this case there would beno energy efficiency benefit or the reduction might onlybe temporary. Africa only commands roughly 1.5% of theworld’s total manufacturing output, according to theUnited Nations Industrial Development Organisation
(Unido), and even this tiny share of global production isheavily concentrated in the few industrialised countries.This suggests that energy intensity trends over the nextdecade are likely to mirror more closely trends in economiccomposition, rather than energy efficiency.
Energy Efficiency
SWAZILAND4.7
LESOTHO9.7
MALAWI5.4
UGANDA8.3
RWANDA3.4
BURUNDI12.2
DJIBOUTI2.5
ERITREA3.0
CENTRALAFRICAN REP.
4.0
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE 3.4
CAPE VERDE 1.9
MAURITIUS 3.2
SENEGAL3.8
THE GAMBIA 3.9
GUINEA-BISSAU 12.6GUINEA 10.0
SIERRA LEONE 5.6
LIBERIA21.9
CÔTED’IVOIRE
5.3
BENIN8.5
COMOROS 3.1
BURKINA FASO5.4
GHANA3.1
SEYCHELLES 2.6
ANGOLA3.1
SOUTHAFRICA
4.4
ETHIOPIA13.8
CHAD2.5
NIGER4.6MALI
2.5
ALGERIA2.4 LIBYA
2.9 EGYPT2.4
NIGERIA5.4
MADAGASCAR3.9
BOTSWANA2.9
ZIMBABWE15.9
ZAMBIA6.9
TANZANIA10.4
KENYA6.0
DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO18.3
GABON2.6
NAMIBIA3.2
CAMEROON4.6
TUNISIA2.6
MOROCCO2.6
MAURITANIA3.6
SOMALIA31.7TOGO
9.5
EQUATORIAL GUINEA 0.5
REP. OF CONGO(BRAZZAVILLE)
2.1
MOZAMBIQUE12.8
SUDAN3.6
SOUTHSUDAN
na
15.0+ MJ/$
10.0 – 14.9 MJ/$
6.0 – 9.9 MJ/$
3.0 – 5.9 MJ/$
Less than 3 MJ/$
No data available
Figures in red indicate a deteriorationin the situation since 2010
US$ 2011 purchasing power parity
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
Energy intensity level of final energy, 2012
Energy intensity projections
Energy intensity by sector* Energy intensity CAGR 2000-2012
CAGR 2010-2012
Country coverage
2000 2010 2012
Residential (GJ/Household) 46.2 42.8 42.9 -0.6% 0.1% 52
Transport 19.2 12.2 12.0 -3.9% -0.9% 49
Industry 4.2 3.4 3.4 -1.8% -0.1% 46
Agriculture 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.4% 0.6% 22
Services 0.8 0.5 0.5 -3.3% 2.3% 30
* All sectors MJ/$ at 2011 purchasing power parity. Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework.
AEEP | 43
Energy Efficiency
Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses arean important aspect of supply side efficiency thatcontinue to be a challenge in many African countries.Compared to Europe or the US, where average networklosses of 7% can be assumed, many African countries needto cope with sometimes sizable quantities of power lostbetween generation locations and the end-user.
Inadequate distribution infrastructure and damagedpower lines are factors that can account for thisphenomenon. Other factors include technical as well asnon-technical losses arising from unmetered, unbilled andunpaid electricity, including theft. However, theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) has established that thelocation of primary energy resources (such as hydro-lakesand coal seams) and large loads (cities and industries) canhave an even more dominant effect on aggregate networklosses. These indicators cannot be properly accounted forwithout detailed analysis.
For the purposes of this report, annual average T&D losseshave been calculated as their sum in GWh for all countriesfor which data was available, divided by the sum of totalelectricity output in GWh for the same sample countries.
Average network losses for Africa exhibit a quite stabletrend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and 2012(from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change between 2010 and2012. This tendency is similar when comparingSE4All/Global Tracking Framework data with statisticsprovided by the US Energy Information Administration(EIA), even when accounting for total electricity outputplus electricity imports as the denominator.
If African average T&D losses are measured as the averageof the percentage losses per country for each year of thesame sample, this results in losses of 21.5% for 2000,21.4% for 2010, and 26% for 2012. The 2012 increase waslargely due to Botswana, which as a net electricityimporter displays losses as high as 158%; this makes thelink between generation and distribution appearimplausible, but as mentioned above, the overall trend forAfrica remains broadly the same even if electricity importsare accounted for.
It should be pointed out that the numbers in the WorldBank/SE4All database seem to have changed significantlyin some instances since the last AEEP Status Report, whichwas published in 2014 and used a dataset that concludedin 2010. Further, the data show large fluctuations in T&Dlosses year-on-year for some countries. This could be dueto varying electricity imports. Alternatively, the validity ofthe data must be questioned.
Looking at average regional network losses, all regionshave remained at more or less similar levels over time,except for West Africa which has improved its T&D lossesby more than 20 percentage points from 36.6% in 2000 to15.9% in 2012. The data suggest that, in West Africa,Nigeria has made notable improvements, from 51% of
Network losses
2000
%
15
0
%
15
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10
5
10
5
13.1 13.012.1 12.2
13.5
12.1 12.511.5 11.8 12.2
12.711.8
12.7
Average transmission and distribution losses, 2000Ð12
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework % of total electricity output
%
102000 10 12 20
projections
08060402
11
12
13
14
% of total electricity output
Average transmissionand distribution losses
12.6713.06
12.27 (based on 2010–12 trend)
12.64 (based on 2000–12 trend)
44 | AEEP
Energy Efficiency
SWAZILANDna
LESOTHOna
MALAWIna
UGANDAna
RWANDAna
BURUNDIna
DJIBOUTIna
ERITREA16.7
CENTRALAFRICAN REP.
na
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE na
CAPE VERDE na
MAURITIUS na
SENEGAL19.4
THE GAMBIA na
GUINEA-BISSAU naGUINEA na
SIERRA LEONE na
LIBERIAna
CÔTED’IVOIRE
19.6
BENINna
COMOROS na
BURKINA FASOna
GHANA22.0
SEYCHELLES na
ANGOLA11.9
SOUTHAFRICA
9.1
ETHIOPIA14.9
CHADna
NIGERnaMALI
na
ALGERIA20.5 LIBYA
13.1 EGYPT11.1
NIGERIA11.7
MADAGASCARna
BOTSWANA158.1
ZIMBABWE16.2
ZAMBIA24.3
TANZANIA18.1
KENYA19.0
DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF
CONGO7.8
GABON21.9
NAMIBIA26.2
CAMEROON12.6
TUNISIA16.0
MOROCCO13.4
MAURITANIAna
SOMALIAnaTOGO
93.0
EQUATORIAL GUINEA na
REP. OF CONGO(BRAZZAVILLE)
45.9
MOZAMBIQUE15.1
SUDAN19.0
SOUTHSUDAN
na
% of gross electricity production:
80.0% +
40.0 – 79.9%
20.0 – 39.9%
10.0 – 19.9%
Less than 10%
No data available
Figures in red indicate a deteriorationin the situation since 2010
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
Transmission and distribution losses, 2012
losses in 2000 to 23% in 2010 and 12% in 2012. Senegal’snetwork losses also fell, from 43% in 2000 to 19% in 2012.
Southern Africa – excluding the Republic of South Africa(RSA) – experienced considerable deterioration between2000 and 2010. Since then, the situation has stabilised atabout 18.6% of T&D losses. In Southern Africa, apart fromthe special case of Botswana, Zambia’s losses worsenedquite significantly from 3% in 2000 to 24% in 2010 and2012. The fact that Zambian generation rose by about 50%in the same timeframe, led consultancy KPMG to conclude,
in its 2015 Power in Africa report, that improvements in
generation capacities had not been accompanied by an
adequate build-up of distribution infrastructure.
The data show that Central Africa displays a very low level
of network losses. One apparent reason for this is that in
economies like Democratic Republic of Congo – with very
low levels of access – generation capacity is often built for
specific end-users, notably extractive industries, who do
not require extensive distribution infrastructure.
Average network losses (%)
North Africa West Africa East Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Southern Africa(minus RSA)
2000 14.6 36.6 18.9 13.2 9.0 11.5
2010 12.6 22.8 16.7 12.3 10.9 18.7
2020 13.6 15.9 17.9 14.1 10.5 18.6
AEEP | 45
European Union institutions, member states and theircorporate and individual citizens play a very important rolein helping to develop Africa’s energy infrastructures andcapabilities, but – as the 2014 Status Report pointed out –measuring the extent of that role remains problematicgiven the relative lack of data. Many of the shortfallsrecorded then by the AEEP Secretariat and its consultantspersist, for example showing that groups of developmentfinance institutions (DFIs) do not yet collate data on theirfinancing flows and outcomes. There are also issues inmeasuring contributions that pass via institutions such asthe World Bank Group (WBG) and African DevelopmentBank (AfDB) Group, both of which have a substantialEuropean shareholding and, thus, a stake in their highlevels of support for African energy projects.
The AEEP Power Projects Database cannot yet produceaccurate numbers for each party’s contributions tofinancing developments. Much more work is needed toidentify each of the financial instruments that feed intothe several thousand projects recorded. However, while adaunting information-gathering challenge which wouldrequire very considerable resources, there is no technicalreason why this should not be possible.
Neither is there a complete record of Europeancommitments to the African energy sector. The mostcomplete time series of commitments by bodies withinthe EU is kept by the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa
(ICA), which is managed by the AfDB in Abidjan. Thisuseful tool has, over several years, tracked commitmentsmade by the European Investment Bank (EIB), EuropeanCommission (EC), France, Germany and the UK. It has beenworking to expand its coverage, with significant success,and this data is used to inform this report.
African national government budgetallocationsThe ICA has also been expanding its coverage and analysisof infrastructure spending in African government budgets.
Available data suggests that African nationalgovernments’ budget allocations, combined withcommitments made directly or indirectly through theAfDB and WBG by EU member states appear to be on asteep, upward trend. This is shown in data produced forthe ICA and calculations made by the AEEP Secretariat.
While the majority of African countries allocated most oftheir infrastructure capital spending to the transportsector, some have prioritised the energy sector. Theseinclude Algeria, Angola, Kenya and Tanzania, each of whichin 2014 allocated more than $500m to energy throughtheir annual budgets.
According to data published by 34 African governments,state funds of at least €5bn were committed to capitalexpenditure on energy projects in 2013 and 2014; this wasrather more than the €3bn committed in 2012.
Given the differences in data availability on nationalbudget allocations, the table on page 47 shows a controlgroup of 21 African countries that have reported budgetallocations on a consistent like-for-like basis for the threeyears to 2014. While some countries report broadly evenallocations, there are some big fluctuations, as seen in thedata captured for Angola, Ghana, Senegal, South Sudanand Togo. It appears encouraging that the total controlgroup allocations rose sharply after 2012, but data can bedeceptive, as this increase is almost entirely due toAngola’s larger allocations.
African and EuropeanContributions
2012
bn euros
10
8
6
4
2
02013 2014
Funding to theAfrican energysector:
from Africa
from EU
5.64
3.60
5.17
2.77
3.32
1.46
46 | AEEP
Severe peaks and troughs in the control group data are
similar to those found in external funders’ contributions to
the African energy sector. There are many reasons for
these fluctuations, which include the project cycles of the
largest schemes. Data can be skewed by a higher than
usual injection of DFI funding into budget support
mechanisms, such as the AfDB’s $1bn loan commitmentin 2014 for the Angola Power Sector Reform SupportProgramme, or the impact of investment, such as the€6.9bn committed by several funders in 2010 to theEskom Investment Support Project.
Absolute national budget allocations lack meaning giventhe different sizes of the economies involved. In thiscontext, the amount of spending per capita may be amore relevant measure.
Analysis of average national budget allocations percapita over the three years to 2014 show some very widevariations. This is based on initial work in this area by theAEEP’s consultants, working with data from nationalfinance ministries and central banks. Angola stands outas having by far the largest allocations to energy percapita (at around €95/head). Botswana is ranked secondin this analysis (at €40/head), substantially ahead ofthird- and fourth-ranked Cape Verde (€16 /head) andKenya (€14). These rankings should not be consideredtrue guides to a country’s commitment or overallspending on African energy infrastructure, which may bemainly made by a state utility or other subnational body.
Data considerations Data for national budget allocations to Africa’s energysector in 2014 is based on analysis of 42 countries thatpublished information on infrastructure capital spendingin their budgets over a three-year period to 2014. Thisgroup – comprising 34 countries in 2014, 23 in 2013 and27 in 2012 – published clearly identifiable allocations toenergy infrastructure capital expenditure. Excluded fromthe data used for AEEP purposes are allocations that mayinclude revenue spending, elements aimed at oil or gasinfrastructure that fall beyond the type of infrastructurecontemplated in the AEEP context, or allocations tomulti-sector projects.
This implies data presented here may be understated.Neither can a degree of double-counting be excluded,where national budgets include spending funded by DFIsor some other external source. The extent of double-counting is difficult to assess and appears to vary greatly.Where budgets specify amounts of internal and externalfunding for an allocation, capital expenditure on energyin the Mozambican and Ugandan budgets wasrespectively 78% and 73% internally funded, whereasEthiopia’s budgets showed 74% was externally financed.
Subnational spendingOne marked trend is towards increased subnationalspending in Africa, by local governments, state utilities,regional and country-based development andinfrastructure banks. However, these sources of funding
African Contribution
20
0
euros
Angola
Botswana
Cape Verd
e
Kenya
Côte d’Iv
oire
Ghana
Namib
ia
16
12
8
4
0
2euros
Senegal
NigeriaEgypt
Burundi
Moza
mbiq
ue
Madagasc
ar
Ethio
pia
Guinea-
B
issau
1
3.59
6.26
11.95
14.94
16.76
119.26
25.77
2.02
1.60
1.44
1.02
0.95
0.09
0.01
0.004
African national governmentÕs budget allocationsto the energy sector, per capita average 2012Ð14
Larger allocations:
Smaller allocations:
AEEP | 47
have yet to be accurately identified and screened fordouble-counting before they can be added to the data thatmonitors and assesses what resources are beingcommitted to the energy sector.
African public sector funds flow into the energy sectorfrom several sources. National government budgetallocations are a major source, but the role of subnationalfunding should not be underestimated. Local or municipalgovernment, or state utilities, are increasingly positioningthemselves to deploy internally generated funds orleverage finance from financial markets (as has beenestablished previously in other emerging regions such asEastern Europe and Latin America). In some of Africa’slargest economies – including Egypt, Republic of SouthAfrica (RSA), Nigeria and Morocco – there is a verysubstantial emphasis on subnational financing.
In its 2014 budget, the City of Johannesburg, allocated€239m to infrastructure as defined by the ICA (transport,water, energy and information and communicationstechnology, or ICT); this was equivalent to 45% of itscapital expenditure. Johannesburg expected to raise€294m of its budget through internally generated taxesand service charges. In 2013, the Lagos State GovernmentBond–Series 2 raised €422m for infrastructure.
Morocco’s advanced regionalisation programme embracesthe concept of subnational government financing andmechanisms for infrastructure funding, through structuressuch as the Fonds d’Equipement Communal (FEC), whichprovides loans for specific investment projects and lines ofcredit for financing longer-term developmentprogrammes. FEC is financed through the local financialmarket notably through credit lines, bond loans anddeposit certificates.
African regional development banks are also ploughingfunds into the energy sector and leveraging financialmarkets. Participants in the Lake Turkana Wind Projectfinancing included the East African Development Bank andPTA Bank, which concluded a milestone in November 2014with a syndicated loan with a target of $200m; the facilityclosed at $320m, 1.6 times oversubscribed.
Other African sources of public sector finance include theparticipation of the Central Bank of Nigeria in Lagos-basedinfrastructure investor the African Finance Corporationalong with other African (mainly Nigerian) financialinstitutions and corporate investors. Senegal’sinfrastructure finance system is now operated through thenewly established Fonds Souverain d’InvestissementsStratégiques (Fonsis).
There is considerable scope for international institutionsto extend the charting, tracking and analysis of
commitments and disbursements from this burgeoning
cohort of existing and potential funding sources.
Emerging private sourcesPrivately sourced financing for energy infrastructure isemerging across Africa – and in other regions such as theGulf states – as predicted by the 2014 Status Report (page59), which observed that a trend towards parastatal,capital markets and other private sector sources offunding was emerging. A key focus for AEEP stakeholdersis to intensify the ‘blending’ of public and private finance.Including more representatives of this trend among theAEEP’s stakeholder community, and monitoring thisimportant development are potential focal points for
African Contribution
African National Government Budget Allocations for Energy Infrastructure ($m)
Country 2012 2013 2014
Angola 627.958 2,691.854 2,270.628
Botswana 124.529 77.881 55.413
Burundi 7.300 11.994 10.565
Cape Verde 11.822 5.601 9.004
Cote d'Ivoire 142.761 167.389 272.350
Egypt 130.026 85.588 124.886
Ethiopia 0.524 0.678 1.379
Ghana na 40.507 160.867
Guinea Bissau 0.022 0.138 0.006
Kenya 559.459 695.225 670.584
Madagascar 0.952 3.057 2.118
Mozambique 18.791 13.403 23.278
Namibia 7.824 4.849 7.871
Nigeria 338.506 353.033 283.453
Senegal 1.036 27.347 27.419
South Africa 378.346 334.037 248.939
South Sudan 7.708 0.222 0.470
Tanzania 157.643 205.586 411.946
Togo 6.342 1.559 11.372
Uganda 318.425 367.315 374.751
Zimbabwe 40.864 15.746 13.646
Total 2,880.840 5,103.008 4,980.946
48 | AEEP
European Contribution
future activity by the Partnership, as African infrastructurefinancing becomes established as an asset class, and localfinancial markets become deeper, allowing more Africancitizens and foreign funds to invest.
European contributions to fundingAfrican energy projectsThe 28 EU Member States make substantial directcommitments to Africa’s energy sector, on average overthe five years to 2014 providing €1.7bn annually inconcessional and non-concessional financing. Additionally,the EU has a strong and wide-ranging partnership withthe WBG and AfDB, as do a range of EU institutions,including the EC, European Council, European Parliamentand EIB.
The Member States are major shareholders and partners inthe work of the WBG, accounting for nearly one-third ofshares in the International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment (IBRD) and half of contributions to the soft-lending International Development Association (IDA).
EU institutions and member states provided 52.9% ofpaid-in contributions to the IBRD from 2006 to February2015. If this percentage is taken as being indicative of thepercentage Europeans have indirectly contributed to theWBG’s African energy commitments, then theircontribution, on average over the five years to 2014, hasbeen an annual €791m.
European contributions to the AfDB are also substantial.EU Member States contributed 59.8% of pledges to thetwelfth and thirteenth replenishments of the soft-lendingAfrican Development Fund, which provides the substantialamount of funds administered by the bank in the period2011-16. If this percentage is applied to the AfDB’scommitments to the African energy sector, then memberstates have contributed, on average in the period 2010-14,an annual €491m.
Based on these calculations, direct AfDB and WBGfunding, and ‘indirect’ funding based on EU Member
States average support peaked in the AEEP baseline year2010, at around €5.5bn. This was a very exceptional yearthat included several billion euro-plus commitments inNorth and East Africa and Mozambique, including the€10.4bn Eskom Investment Support Project.
2010
6,000
meuros
2011 2012 2013 2014
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Indirect funding via WBG
Indirect funding via AfDB
Direct funding
2,789
987
208
1,626
2,963
1,5631,464
2,765
3,596
624
2,182
319
257
714
542
516
623
282
351
Total:5,595
EU member statesÕ commitments to theAfrican energy sector, 2010Ð14
AEEP | 49
Targets to 2020 and BeyondThis Status Report Update gives strong pointers to theprogress and problems experienced in meeting the Africa-EU Energy Partnership’s 2020 Political Targets. Somedevelopments have been exceptional since the Partnershipwas created – for example, the amount of solar capacitythat has been installed, which is already much greaterthan envisaged when the AEEP was created at the Lisbonsummit in 2007. The scale of international concern aboutthe need to seriously tackle energy poverty in Africa ismuch greater than when African and European leadersfirst highlighted this global-scale problem.
The AEEP has been a pioneer in proposing policy directionsand targets to overcome energy poverty, improveefficiency and underpin domestic and cross-border energysecurity in Africa and Europe. Now approaching its seconddecade, the AEEP has been instrumental in shaping theapproach of global initiatives like the United Nations-ledSustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which have understoodthe need to collect and collate more accurate data that caninform the campaign to end energy poverty.
Through initiatives such as operationalising the AEEPMonitoring Tool – and its Africa Power Project Database,which now contains information on more than 3,250operating and planned generation plants, plus electricityinterconnections and other data – the Partnership hasshown a steely commitment to establishing a strongempirical basis for understanding trends and tacklingproblems. In this approach, the Partnership – piloted bythe AEEP Secretariat, as mandated by its membergovernments and co-chairs – has shown a refreshingcapacity to be critical about data and policy. AEEPstakeholders generally agree that only by encouragingcritical dialogue can Africa and Europe move forward.
The Lisbon 2020 Political Targets set the initial phase ofwork, providing goals that Africa and Europe should aspireto meet, and mandating the new Partnership to monitorthose benchmarks. This Status Report Update continuesthat work in a spirit that typifies the AEEP – intended as abasis for further discussion, which is likely to focus onseveral areas.
Extending the targets Following nearly a decade of growth in the African energyindustries, it is relevant to ask whether the AEEP’s politicaltargets are still appropriate, both numerically andchronologically. The AEEP Power Project Database suggests
that some targets could be reached already, while many –but not all – will be exceeded by 2020.
Some AEEP stakeholders argue that it may be appropriateto ask if the timeframe for the Political Targets should beextended. There are two main reasons for this. 2020 is fastapproaching, and a decision to extend the deadline wouldallow for more rational planning of research and projects,for example allowing the AEEP Monitoring Tool databasesto incorporate project projections that go beyond thecurrent cut-off. A new target date would enable a widercoordination of programmes into the next decade.
It should also be considered that a number of more recent,complementary initiatives – including SE4All, which hasstrong support from the African Union and EuropeanCommission, and lately the African Renewable EnergyInitiative – have taken 2030 as their target date. So havethe United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs), which are intended as a baseline for harmonisingglobal action to tackle poverty, and will have an impact onenergy, climate change mitigation and related sectors.
Harmonising effortsEfforts to harmonise the growing number of internationalAfrican energy-focused initiatives – a process in which theAEEP is playing a leading role – suggest that more shouldbe done to avoid duplicating effort by encouragingcooperation in data-gathering and policy-making.
While the AEEP Monitoring Tool has established a niche intracking generation projects, the AEEP Secretariat hasadopted data gathered in the SE4All Global TrackingFramework for access and efficiency indicators. The SE4Alldatabase contains estimates of access to electricity andnon-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity and electricitytransmission and distribution losses for all but a handfulof African countries. AEEP stakeholders are alreadyworking with SE4All and the GTF process.
In the questioning spirit that typifies the AEEP,stakeholders have long discussed whether these – andother – indicators are appropriate measures for thepartnership to be working with. Should, for example,energy industries’ contribution to create jobs or othercritical social issues be adopted as benchmarks? Such hasbeen the AEEP’s role in providing critical leadership in itscore areas of interest, that such questions are not onlyappropriate, but should be asked.
Published byEuropean Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF)
c/o Deutsche Gesellschaft für InternationaleZusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5, 65760 Eschborn,Germanywww.euei-pdf.org/aeep [email protected]
Eschborn, May 2016
EditorsDavid Otieno and Hadley Taylor (AEEP Secretariat)
Report prepared byJon Marks (lead author), David Burles (maps and graphics) Mark Ford, Dan Marks, David Slater
Cross-border Information,www.crossborderinformation.com
Design & LayoutCross-border Information
PhotosFront cover – KfW/photothek.net; Page 9 – KfW/AusloeserPhotographie; Page 11 – KfW/Ausloeser Photographie;Page 16 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 18 – Jon Marks; Page28 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 22 – iStock photo; Page23 – iStock photo; Page 35 – KfW/JG Lopata; Page 46 –iStock photo; Back cover – KfW/Rendel Freude
The Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF) is aninstrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI). It is currentlyfunded and receives contribution from Austria, theEuropean Commission, Finland, Italy, Germany, theNetherlands and Sweden. The EUEI PDF acts as theSecretariat of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership.
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one ofthe initial eight partnerships under the Joint Africa-EUStrategy (JAES), a long-term framework for cooperationbetween the two continents. The African UnionCommission, the Common Market for Eastern and SouthernAfrica (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt, the EuropeanCommission, Germany, Italy are the Steering Groupmembers providing political guidance to the Partnership.
Imprint
50 | AEEP
AEEP Steering Group
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one ofthe initial eight partnerships created under the JointAfrica-EU Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for co-operation between the two continents. Africa and Europework together through the AEEP to develop a sharedvision, common policy approaches and actions.
Six Steering Group members – who now comprise theAfrican Union Commission, the Common Market forEastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,the European Commission, Germany and Italy – providepolitical guidance to the Partnership. The AEEP Secretariatis hosted by the Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF),which is an instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI).
The AEEP’s overall objective is to improve access toreliable, secure, affordable and sustainable energyservices for both continents, with the aim of achieving theMillennium Development Goals in Africa. The AEEP’sefforts are focused on meeting a series of concrete,realistic and visible targets by 2020, as agreed by thePartnership’s First High Level Meeting, held in Vienna on14–15 September 2010, and developed throughsubsequent actions and meetings since.
This report’s aim is to provide an update of the AEEP’sbenchmarks and to monitor progress in achieving thePartnership’s goals, while also pointing to directions forcontinued action.
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one ofthe initial eight partnerships created under the JointAfrica-EU Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for co-operation between the two continents. Africa and Europework together through the AEEP to develop a sharedvision, common policy approaches and actions.
Six Steering Group members – who now comprise theAfrican Union Commission, the Common Market forEastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,the European Commission, Germany and Italy – providepolitical guidance to the Partnership. The AEEP Secretariatis hosted by the Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF),which is an instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI).
The AEEP’s overall objective is to increase theeffectiveness of efforts to secure reliable and sustainableenergy services and extend their access on bothcontinents, with the aim of achieving the SustainableDevelopment Goals in Africa. The AEEP’s efforts arefocused on meeting a series of concrete, realistic andvisible targets by 2020, as agreed by the Partnership’sFirst High Level Meeting, held in September 2010, anddeveloped through subsequent actions and meetings.
This report’s aim is to provide an update of the AEEP’sbenchmarks and to monitor progress in achieving thePartnership’s goals, while also pointing to directions forcontinued action.
