-
8/6/2019 Afghanistan Weekly War Update the Infiltration
Challenge
1/3
Afghanistan Weekly War Update: The Infiltration Challenge
June 14, 2011 | 1216 GMT
Infiltration
The United States is deploying some 80 counterintelligence
agents to Afghanistan to
improve the screening of recruits and monitoring of troops, NATO
Training Mission-Afghanistan spokesman Lt. Col. David C. Simons
said June 10. The deployment comes in
the wake of violence against U.S. and allied troops by Afghan
security forces. The risk thatmilitants will infiltrate indigenous
security forces is a given as a result of a U.S. exit
strategy that amounts to Vietnamization of the Afghan
conflict.
According to The New York Times, members of the Afghan security
forces have killed 57people (including 32 U.S. troops) and wounded
another 64 since March 2009. More than
half of those casualties occurred in 2011. Part of this spike
could be attributed to the rapidgrowth and expansion of the Afghan
security forces, which are set to reach 395,000 by2014.
Afghanistans security forces currently total nearly 300,000, which
represents an
expansion of some 100,000 since 2009. As attrition remains a
problem, the intake of newpersonnel must be extensive simply to
maintain the current size of the force much less to
expand it by another 100,000. Lt. William Caldwell, the
commander of NATO TrainingMission-Afghanistan, estimates that
although 110,000 security forces had been recruited in
2010, the high attrition rate meant that the net increase in
forces was only 70,000. Timemagazine reported an annual attrition
rate of 32 percent for the Afghan army and 23 percent
for the Afghan police, which would mean NATO would need to
recruit 86,000 in order toadd only 35,000.
This training effort is an enormous undertaking by any means.
The speed and scale dictated
by the aggressive American withdrawal timetable compound
inherent problems withinfiltration, since they make the screening
process even more unmanageable. Given this
reality, 80 U.S. counterintelligence personnel are not likely to
suffice in order to fully vetthe large number of new Afghan
security personnel. Moreover, the vetting process requires
a considerable understanding of cultural nuances and subtleties
with which the UnitedStates has long struggled.
-
8/6/2019 Afghanistan Weekly War Update the Infiltration
Challenge
2/3
SPC. APRIL STEWART, 3RD BCT PAO, 1ST CAV. DIV/U.S. Army
A U.S. Army soldier holds a HIIDE portable biometric device that
scans retinas and fingerprints
Even if unlimited resources were available for vetting,
screening in the Western sense is
extraordinarily difficult. Birth records do not always exist in
Afghanistan, and in manycases, there is no way to run a background
check on most people beyond having local tribal
elders vouch for them.
An extensive and comprehensive effort is under way to build up
biometric data on the
entire country, a process essentially being done from scratch.
Such records can only alertinvestigators to candidates previously
caught or associated with anti-coalition activity. This
leaves enormous holes in the ability to screen that will
continue to challenge Afghansecurity forces.
-
8/6/2019 Afghanistan Weekly War Update the Infiltration
Challenge
3/3
Uncertainty Over Patience and Commitment
Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, emphasizing the need for strategic
patience and an enduring
commitment, said he does not expect to complete training efforts
until 2016 or 2017. This
is two to three years later than the current deadline of 2014
for the end of InternationalSecurity Assistance Force (ISAF) combat
operations in the country. During his visit lastweek, outgoing U.S.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates also emphasized that there
would
be no rush for the exits in terms of the July deadline to begin
drawing down forces inAfghanistan.
A host of confirmation hearings (including for Marine Corps Lt.
Gen. John Allen, soon to
receive a fourth star and replace Gen. David Petraeus as
commander of ISAF and U.S.Forces-Afghanistan) are intensifying the
discussion of the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan.
Sen. John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, emphasized lastweek in one such hearing that while the
U.S. has genuine national security interests in
Afghanistan, our current commitment in troops and in dollars is
neither proportional to ourinterests nor sustainable and reports
have indicated that he is pushing the White House for
a more significant reduction of forces. While Congress does not
dictate military strategy,Kerry is counted as one of several inside
U.S. President Barack Obamas camp (including
Vice President Joe Biden) pushing for more substantive
reductions, and the matter is farfrom settled.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us Copyright 2011
Stratfor. All rights reserved.
