8/6/2019 Afghanistan Weekly War Update Capitalizing on the Killing of Bin Laden

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Afghanistan Weekly War Update: Capitalizing on the

Killing of Bin Laden

May 10, 2011 | 1208 GMT

Bin Ladens Death and the Afghan War

Our weekly update of the war in Afghanistan usually examines several of the prior weeksnotable developments, but this edition is different. Given the singular significance of the

death of Osama bin Laden May 2 at the hands of U.S. Navy SEALs in Pakistan reportedly without the prior knowledge of the Pakistani government we believe it is

important this week to turn our focus to his death and the effects it will have on NATOsfight against the Taliban.

A great deal of analysis has centered on the implications of bin Ladens death for

American-Pakistani relations, which had already reached a point of unprecedented tension.The emphasis on Pakistan is understandable. Islamabad is critical to the U.S. strategy of

creating conditions in Afghanistan conducive to a Western military withdrawal. But thewider question the ramifications of bin Ladens death on the war in Afghanistan

remains largely unaddressed.

A recent statement by Gen. David Petraeus, the outgoing U.S. commander in Afghanistan

who will soon become the new CIA chief, offers insight into that broader issue. In a May 8interview with The Associated Press, Gen. Petraeus said al Qaeda and the Afghan Talibanwere bound not by an organizational relationship, but a personal one between Osama bin

Laden and Mullah Mohammed Omar. The General expressed hope that bin Ladens deathcould weaken al Qaedas influence over the Afghan Taliban.

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settlement must be reached before the fighting can end. At a bare minimum, such anarrangement will require talking with the Taliban, but no one seems quite sure who among

the insurgents to address.

Petraeus remarks linking Mullah Omar personally with bin Laden, as well as previous U.S.

statements about the Taliban chief, suggest that Washington is not prepared to negotiatewith the founder of the Afghan jihadist movement. The problem is that Mullah Omar hasno equals within the movement. As long as he is alive, there can be no meaningful talks

with anyone else. The United States might like to eliminate Mullah Omar as it did binLaden, but it realizes this task would be more difficult to accomplish and the destabilizing

effects on Pakistan could be more pronounced.

Unlike bin Laden, Mullah Omar is not at war with Islamabad and is likely to have far bettersanctuary in Pakistan, making it considerably more difficult for the United States to

pinpoint his location. Assuming Washington is able to track him down deep insidePakistan, another unilateral American strike like the one on May 2 could further damage

Washingtons relations with Islamabad. Pakistan is still very much a key player in thisdrama. The United States will need Pakistan to manage the situation on both sides of the

Afghan-Pakistani border after conventional U.S. and NATO forces leave the war zone.

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