Afghanistan Measuring Progress Toward Peace

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Sunday September 20, 2009

Afghanistan: Measuring Progress TowardPeace

Afghanistan, NATO, U.S. Military, Development, Democracy Promotion

Michael E. O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Foreign PolicyBruce Riedel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

The Washington Times

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SEPTEMBER 01, 2009

Afghanistan's important Aug. 20 vote is over. Whatever the outcome, a poll by the International

Republican Institute, completed just before the vote, shows a fresh burst of hopefulness among Afghans,

with optimism about the future back to the 60 percent level for the first time in years and renewed faith in

the United States as well as NATO. However, this is likely the last time we will have the benefits of a fresh

start; our popularity, as well as the Afghan government's, has been declining at most points in the past

few years, and the insurgency is gaining a greater foothold. We must make maximum use of this

opportunity.An Afghan policeman keeps watch during the presidential election in Kabul.
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Reuters/Lucy Nicholson

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PAST EVENT

Prospects for Afghanistan's Future: Assessing the Outcome of the Afghan PresidentialElectionTuesday, August 25, 2009

3:00 PM to 4:30 PM

Washington, DC

More Related Content

President Obama's new strategy is a step in the right direction but how, and how soon, will we know if it

is working? With declining support for the war among Americans, this is not only a fair question but an

important one. The president owes Congress a report in September on metrics for gauging progress in

Afghanistan. There is little doubt that Congress will provide Mr. Obama the money he needs for the

nation's wars now, but these indicators could be crucial next year

as midterm elections approach and asthe buildup of U.S. forces in Afghanistan raises expectations about the progress we should be able to see

there.

Using metrics in war is perilous business. Assessing progress in war especially this kind of

counterinsurgency mission and state-building enterprise is more art than science. But while it may be

art, it must not be fiction. Any theory about the war's trajectory must be consistent with the facts. In this

regard, metrics can help.

Based on our experiences in and out of government, we would offer several guidelines on how to

interpret quantitative data from the Afghanistan conflict that may be useful in the coming months:

Don't equate Afghanistan with Iraq. While the principles of counterinsurgency for the two wars are

similar, the proper use of metrics in these places is very, very different. In Iraq, by 2005-06,

violence against civilians was ripping the country apart, making it the No. 1 key indicator for future

progress. Whatever else the surge accomplished, it had to bring down those fatalities as well as

ethnic cleansing and displacement rates. In Afghanistan, despite the deterioration in security,

violence against civilians remains far, far less than it was in the dog days of Iraq's civil war.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0902_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/experts/ohanlonm.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0410_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/experts/ohanlonm.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2009/0825_afghanistan_election.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2009/0825_afghanistan_election.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0901_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspx?more=rchttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=c46e97bf-a23d-408b-8faa-1618f9cce222http://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=a905196f-cdc1-4d2b-838a-dc87d11cd4cbhttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=8fbe7409-8043-488f-9d86-5f0b8ffab47ehttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=c46e97bf-a23d-408b-8faa-1618f9cce222http://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=a905196f-cdc1-4d2b-838a-dc87d11cd4cbhttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=8fbe7409-8043-488f-9d86-5f0b8ffab47ehttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=c46e97bf-a23d-408b-8faa-1618f9cce222http://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=a905196f-cdc1-4d2b-838a-dc87d11cd4cbhttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=8fbe7409-8043-488f-9d86-5f0b8ffab47ehttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=c46e97bf-a23d-408b-8faa-1618f9cce222http://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=a905196f-cdc1-4d2b-838a-dc87d11cd4cbhttp://www.brookings.edu/profile/Portfolio/PortfolioHelper.aspx?ProfileItemId=8fbe7409-8043-488f-9d86-5f0b8ffab47ehttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpghttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0901_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspx?more=rchttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2009/0825_afghanistan_election.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/events/2009/0825_afghanistan_election.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/experts/ohanlonm.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0410_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/experts/ohanlonm.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0902_afghanistan_ohanlon.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Images/RC/A/AF%20AI/afghan_police003_rc.jpg


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In Afghanistan, focus on state building. A related point is that metrics showing the growing capacity

of the Afghan state are probably the most important in that country's war. Not only the growth in

size of the army and police, but their quality, as well as the functioning of legal systems and the

efficiency of the bureaucracy in running schools and health clinics and utilities, are of paramount

importance. More corrupt officials should be fired, too.

Beware the wrong metrics. Unfortunately, gauging the capacity of a government to deliver key

services to its population is hard. It is easy to find the wrong metrics. In Iraq in 2004-06, for

example, we had a robust training program for Iraqi security forces and yet, in retrospect, though

the program was well-run, scholar Steve Biddle turned out to be right in arguing that we were

effectively preparing many of those forces for civil war rather than counterinsurgency. Because their

leadership was so poor and their political dependability so questionable, they inflamed rather thanquelled the civil war. Yet our system of metrics at the time had shown continual progress.

Don't measure only what is easily measurable. There can be a tendency to trust "hard data" that

seems precise and firm, such as the number of schools opened or miles of road built or megawatts

of electricity sent over the official grid, and to downplay metrics for which information is less easily

obtained, such as crime rates and unemployment rates and, as noted above, the political reliability

of key leaders of the army, police and courts. Better to present questionable data and label it as

such than to leave it out of a database because it is not polished.

Measure the enemy as well as yourself. How many incidents is it initiating? In how many districts is

it active? Are they all Pashtun areas, or is the insurgency spreading beyond Pashtunistan?

Keep an eye on Pakistan. Is it succumbing to violence or tackling its own Frankenstein's monster?

Is violence spreading beyond the Pashtun belt here, too? As is often the case, the data are surely

weak, but as best we can tell, are the jihadist safe havens growing or contracting? And what do

Pakistanis think about us? Are we their foe or friend?

Remember that some indicators lag and some lead. As Mr. Shapiro emphasizes, even in a

successful campaign, some trends will take more time to improve than others. Troop fatality rates


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may stay tragically high even as progress begins to develop momentum on the battlefield, for

example, if our troops gain better intelligence and are able to initiate more contact with the enemy.

On the other side of things, economic activity may not improve rapidly until a year or two after

security improves, as would-be investors remain cautious about committing their money until

they're sure progress is sustainable.

Pay attention to polling. We may think of surveys as a prevalent feature of modern society, but as

our colleague Carol Graham and others have shown, they can reveal a great deal at the national

and the local levels - about what a population is thinking. Because the population is the "center of

gravity" in this type of war, that makes polling data crucial. We also can use surveys as a diagnostic

tool to determine which elements of our overall strategy are succeeding and which are not.

If we were to offer one message now, in late summer 2009, based on the above principles, it would be

this: Be patient. This is not a call for indefinite suspension of disbelief. After eight years, the American andAfghan peoples are entitled to some straight talk about the war and some reasonable expectation of near-

term progress. But the inputs to the new strategy for Afghanistan are only now reaching the battlefield

(and indeed, a debate about sending more troops may occur soon as well). Given the nature of the

military operations at hand and the pace at which Afghan security forces and civilian institutions can be

built, it will take much or all of 2010 to know if these added resources are translating into a turnaround on

the battlefield. The Afghan people probably are patient enough, after 30 years of war, to wait this long for

clear results. Given the quality of our new strategy and new leadership for Afghanistan policy, despite the

costs and the pain, Congress and American people should be as well.

SUNDAYSEPTEMBER 20, 2009

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6/18

Airline Industry

Alternative Minimum Tax

Antidumping

Antitrust

Arab-Israeli Relations

Arms Control

Asia

Atlanta

Australia and New Zealand

Auto Industry

Balkans

Banking

Brazil

BRICs

Broadband Policy

Budget Deficit

Bureaucracy

Business

California

Campaign Finance

Canada

Caucasus

Central America

Central Asia

Central Intelligence Agency
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