LECTURE DELIVERED BY DR TUGHRAL YAMIN

IR DEPARTMENT NUML

4 MARCH 2015

THE TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN

IMPACT ON PAKISTAN’S SECURITY

SCHEME OF PRESENTATION

• PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE

• TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN

• IMPROVEMENT IN PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONSHIP

• THE FUTURE

THE THEORY OF COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE

• ROBERT KEOHANE AND JOSEPH NYE, THE AUTHORS OF THE THEORY OF COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, PUT FORTH THE IDEA THAT STATES AND THEIR FORTUNES ARE INEXTRICABLY TIED TOGETHER

• THE THEORISTS RECOGNIZED THAT THE VARIOUS AND COMPLEX TRANSNATIONAL CONNECTIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES BETWEEN STATES AND SOCIETIES WERE INCREASING, WHILE THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE AND POWER BALANCING ARE DECREASING BUT REMAIN IMPORTANT

• COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY THREE CHARACTERISTICS, INVOLVING

– THE USE OF MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF ACTION BETWEEN SOCIETIES IN INTERSTATE, TRANSGOVERNMENTAL, AND TRANSNATIONAL RELATIONS

– THE ABSENCE OF A HIERARCHY OF ISSUES WITH CHANGING AGENDAS AND LINKAGES BETWEEN ISSUES PRIORITIZED AND THE OBJECTIVE OF

– BRINGING ABOUT A DECLINE IN THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE AND COERCIVE POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.

PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN ARE IN A STATE OF

COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE

• HISTORICAL LINKS

• GEOGRAPHICAL CO-LOCATION

• RELIGIOUS & CULTURAL SIMILARITIES

• FAMILIAL TIES

• TRADE & ECONOMIC TIES

• COMMON SECURITY CONCERNS

PAK AFGHAN HISTORICAL IRRITANTS

• AFGHAN OPPOSITION TO PAKISTAN ENTRY INTO THE UN

• NON RECOGNTION OF THE DURAND LINE

• SUPPORT TO THE PAKHTOONISTAN CAUSE

PRIDE IN AFGHAN HERITAGE

PAKISTANI MISSILES NAMED AFTER AFGHAN KINGS

PAK AFGHAN GEOGRAPHICAL JUXTAPOSITION

AFGHAN REFUGEES IN PAKISTAN

AFGHANS & FAKE IDs

TERRORIST SANCTUARIES IN AFGHANISTAN

FAZLULLAH HIDING IN KUNAR

WHAT DOES TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN MEANS?

• POLITICAL TRANSITION– HOLDING OF ELECTIONS – TRANSFER OF POWER TO THE NEWLY ELECTED

GOVERNMENT– NEGOTIATIONS WITH TALIBAN

• SECURITY TRANSITION– WITHDRAWL OF ISAF COMBAT FORCES – HANDING OVER THE SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY TO

THE ANSF

• FOREIGN POLICY TRANSITION– IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN

ELECTIONS JUNE 2014

AFGHAN POWER SHARING DEAL & INAUGURATION OF THE NEW

GOVERNMENT SEPTEMBER 2014

UNITY GOVERNMENT’S CABINET

• 12 JANUARY. PRESIDENT ASHRAF GHANI UNVEILED HIS UNITY CABINET COMPRISING 25 MEMBERS MORE THAN THREE MONTHS AFTER HE WAS SWORN IN.

• 2 FEBRUARY. EIGHT MINISTERS ALONG WITH THE HEAD OF AFGHANISTAN’S INTELLIGENCE AGENCY STARTED WORK. DEFENSE MINISTER NOMINEE AND NINE OTHERS OF THE 19 CANDIDATES WERE REJECTED.

SECURITY TRANSITION – INTEQAL

US RESIDUAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN

• 10000 TROOPS MOSTLY ADVISORS AND TRAINERS

• APPROX 1100 SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES

• THOUSANDS OF PRIVATE CONTRACTORS

• US AUTHORITIES MULLING SLOWING DOWN COMPLETE DRAWDOWN BY 2016

COST OF SUSTAING ANSF

CAPACITY OF ANSFTHE AFGHAN ARMY LOST MORE THAN 20,000 FIGHTERS AND

OTHERS LAST YEAR (2014) LARGELY BECAUSE OF DESERTIONS, DISCHARGES AND DEATHS IN COMBAT, ACCORDING TO FIGURES TO BE RELEASED TUESDAY, CASTING FURTHER DOUBT ON AFGHANISTAN’S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SECURITY WITHOUT HELP FROM UNITED STATES-LED COALITION FORCES.

THE NEARLY 11 PERCENT DECLINE FROM JANUARY TO NOVEMBER 2014, TO ROUGHLY 169,000 UNIFORMED AND CIVILIAN MEMBERS FROM 190,000, IS NOW AN ISSUE OF DEEP CONCERN AMONG SOME IN THE AMERICAN MILITARY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE FORMER NO. 2 AMERICAN COMMANDER IN AFGHANISTAN, LT. GEN. JOSEPH ANDERSON, CALLED THE RATE OF COMBAT DEATHS

UNSUSTAINABLE BEFORE HE DEPARTED AT THE END OF LAST YEAR.

NYT REPORT MARCH 3, 2015

SECURITY SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN

• INSIDER ATTACKS. LAST WEEK 3 CONTRACTORS BELONGING TO A PRIVATE US SECURITY COMPANY HIRED BY PENTAGON WERE KILLED BY A UNIFORMED AFGHAN ARMY SOLDIER IN KABUL

• TALIBAN ATTACKS– JANUARY 30. TALIBAN KILLED 3 CONTRACTORS INSIDE KABUL

AIRPORT– FEBRUARY 16. FOUR TALIBAN SUICIDE BOMBERS IN AFGHAN

POLICE UNIFORMS STORMED A HEAVILY FORTIFIED PROVINCIAL POLICE HEADQUARTERS IN LOGAR PROVINCE ON, KILLING AT LEAST 20 OFFICERS AND WOUNDING EIGHT OTHERS, AS THEY WERE FILING INTO THE DINING HALL FOR LUNCH

– FEBRUARY 25. A SUICIDE BOMBER DRIVING A CAR PACKED WITH EXPLOSIVES RAMMED INTO A TURKISH EMBASSY VEHICLE

– MARCH 3. EXPLOSIVE LADEN CAR KILLED 8 POLICEMEN IN HELMAND

IMPROVEMENT IN AFGHAN PAKISTANBILATERAL RELATIONS

• PRESIDENT GHANI VISITED PAKISTAN ON NOVEMBER 13, 2014

• THIS WAS THE SECOND FOREIGN VISIT AFTER CHINA

• SO FAR HE HAS NOT VISITED INDIA

PAKISTAN OFFERS MILITARY TRAINING TO AFGHAN FORCES

• ON NOV 7, 2014 GEN RAHEEL RENEWED MILITARY TRAINING OFFER TO AFGHAN FORCES

• ON FEB 6, 2015, SIX AFGHAN CADETS ARRIVED IN PAKISTAN TO ATTEND AN 18 MONTHS COURSE AT PMA

IMPROVEMENT IN SECURITY COLLABORATION

REASSURING STATEMENTS

• 20 FEBRUARY. CHAUDHRY NISAR STATED THAT RELATIONS BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN HAVE NEVER BEEN BETTER, WHILE MEETING JOHN KERRY IN WASHINGTON

• 21 FEBRUARY. PRESIDENT ASHRAF GHANI SALUTED NEIGHBOURING PAKISTAN'S COOPERATION AS KABUL SEEKS TO LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR PEACE WITH TALIBAN INSURGENTS, THE LATEST SIGN OF IMPROVING TIES BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.

• 4 MARCH. PM NAWAZ SHARIF TOLD THE AFGHAN AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN THAT RELATIONS WITH AFGHANISTAN HAD UNDERGONE QUALITATIVE TRANSFORMATION SINCE THE NEW GOVERNMENT TOOK OVER LAST YEAR.

AFGHAN PAKISTAN TRANSIT TRADE AGREEMENT

• JULY 2010. A MOU WAS SIGNED AFGHANISTAN FOR AFGHAN-PAK TRANSIT TRADE AGREEMENT (APTTA). US SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON WAS IN ATTENDANCE. THE TWO STATES ALSO SIGNED ANOTHER MOU FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF RAIL TRACKS IN AFGHANISTAN TO CONNECT WITH PAKISTAN RAILWAYS (PR), WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING SINCE AT LEAST 2005.

• OCTOBER 2010. THE LANDMARK APTTA AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED BY PAKISTANI COMMERCE MINISTER MAKHDOOM AMIN FAHIM AND ANWAR-UL-HAQ AHADY, AFGHAN MINISTRY OF COMMERCE. THE CEREMONY WAS ATTENDED BY RICHARD HOLBROOKE, US SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR AFPAK, AND A NUMBER OF FOREIGN AMBASSADORS, AFGHAN PARLIAMENTARIANS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS. THE APTTA ALLOWS AFGHAN TRUCKS TO DRIVE INSIDE PAKISTAN TO THE WAGAH BORDER WITH INDIA, INCLUDING TO THE PORT CITIES OF KARACHI AND GWADAR.

• NOVEMBER 2010. THE TWO STATES FORMED A JOINT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TO EXPAND TRADE RELATIONS AND SOLVE THE TRADERS’ PROBLEMS.

• JUNE 2011. APTTA CAME INTO EFFECT AS SEVERAL AFGHAN TRUCKS DELIVERED FRUITS FROM AFGHANISTAN TO THE WAGAH BORDER WITH INDIA. US AND OTHER NATO STATES PLAN TO REVIVE THE ANCIENT SILK ROAD. THIS IS TO HELP THE LOCAL ECONOMIES OF AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN BY CONNECTING SOUTH ASIA WITH CENTRAL ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. THE APTTA IS INTENDED TO IMPROVE TRADE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.

• JULY 2012. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN AGREED TO EXTEND APTTA TO TAJIKISTAN AS THE FIRST STEP FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A NORTH-SOUTH TRADE CORRIDOR. THE PROPOSED AGREEMENT WILL PROVIDE FACILITIES TO TAJIKISTAN TO USE PAKISTAN’S GWADAR AND KARACHI PORTS FOR ITS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS WHILE PAKISTAN WILL ENJOY TRADE WITH TAJIKISTAN UNDER TERMS SIMILAR TO THE TRANSIT ARRANGEMENT WITH AFGHANISTAN. TRADE BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH $5 BILLION BY 2015.

FUTURE OF PAK AFGHAN TIES

• SECURITY CONCERNS – AFGHANS WANT PAKISTAN TO FACILITATE TALTS WITH

TALIBAN – PAKISTAN WANTS AFGHANISTAN TO APPREHEND

FAZLULLAH

• ECONOMIC TIES. COMMON PARTNERS IN THE NEW SILK ROUTE PROPOSED BY THE WEST AND THE MARITIME SILK ROUTE SPONSORED BY CHINA

• INFRASTRUCTURE CONNECTIVITY. RAIL LINKS• ENERGY. TAPI GAS PIPELINE• EDUCATION LINKS• SPORTING TIES

PAK AFGHAN EDUCATION LINKS • SCHOLARSHIPS. PAKISTAN HAS BEEN OFFERING SCHOLARSHIPS TO

AFGHAN STUDENTS SINCE 2009. IN 2013 PAKISTAN OFFERED 600 SCHOLARSHIPS IN ITS INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION.

• UET LAHORE. ON 23 JANUARY 2013 DELEGATION FROM DIFFERENT AFGHAN UNIVERSITIES ALONG WITH HEC REPRESENTATIVES VISITED UET LAHORE. VC EXTENDED COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF RESEARCH, PROJECTS & PUBLICATION.

• NUST. 31 JANUARY 2013 AFGHAN MOD DELEGATION VISITED THE UNIVERSITY. RECTOR NUST OFFERED 20 FULLY FUNDED SCHOLARSHIPS IN ANY DISCIPLINE.

• NUML

– SIZABLE POPULATION OF AFGHAN STUDENTS IN NUML

– AFGHAN STUDENTS SHOWCASED MARKETING SKILLS IN 8TH SALES GALA IN 2013

– NAUROZ CELEBERATED IN MARCH 2014

• LUMS. ON 22 FEBRUARY 2015 AFGHAN AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN SIGNED MOU WITH LUMS TO SEND AFGHAN STUDENTS TO STUDY IN LAHORE

SPORTING TIES

AFGHAN BOWLER CELEBRATES AFTER VICTORY OVER SCOTLAND

JUBILIANT AFGHAN CRICKET FANS REJOICE IN THE STREETS OF KANADHAR

PAKISTANI CRICKETER KABIR KHAN – FIRST CRICKET COACH OF THE AFGHAN TEAM