Afghan Report#5

8/9/2019 Afghan Report#5

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AFGHANISTAN REPORT 5

Carl Forsberg

April 2010

Politics and Powerin kandahar



Cover Photograph: (Let to Right) Ahmed Wali Karzai, Ari Khan Noorzai, and Aghan DeenseMinister Abdul Rahim Wardak cut a ribbon that ormally opens an Aghan National Army hospitalin Kandahar.

Photo Credit: U.S. Navy Photo by LCDR Steven Parks

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AFGHANISTAN REPORT 5

Carl Forsberg

Politics and Powerin kandahar



ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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k P, The Taliban's Campaign or Kandahar Politics and Power in Kandahar , g u y g mp k, u

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ABOUT THE INSTITUTE

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taBle oF contents

ExEcUTIvE SUmmARy .............................................................................. 06

INTROdUcTION ........................................................................................ 09

tb s k ........................................................................... 11

t kz Fmy: hy, i, r P .................................................17

Fm, c, M: t im P suu P emy k ...................................................................................................27

Fm s iu k t im P suu .........38

am w kz & Ppu a m Gm ............................... 51

cONclUSION ANd REcOmmENdATIONS ................................................... 58

NOTES ..................................................................................................... 66

fIgURES

ag P Mp ............................................................................... 08

k P ...................................................................................... 10

t Pu tb k ...................................................................... 13

c k P ............................................................................ 25

w' w: ky Fgu k P ...................................................... 33

aFGhanistan rePort 5 | Politics and Power in kandahar | carl ForsBerG | aPril 2010



execUtive sUMMarY

REcOmmENdATIONS

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isaF’ 2010 uugy mpg.

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bj, py g m mu b m y gy. wkz’ b g ppuy mg ppu pm by p p tb .

isaF y g um gm gm u. isaFh

mu p p p k gm bm b p.

isaF mu p gy u b k kbu h

gz m by m p uu -p um pm bu u.

a isaF gy mu u:h

• Unity o efort among coalition actors at the national and provincial levels.

• Comprehensive intelligence on the interests and relationships o local powerbrokers, contracting ., b kbu k.

• Reorm o ISAF contracting, to ensure distribution o ISAF unding to a broad range o u, u g my-mm .

• Disarmament and demobilization o private security orces and private militias.

• Building ministerial capacity in Kandahar and Kabul to ensure strong and independent security .

KEy fINdINgS

w m k m b , u k h

u m p. c gu, my, g upp bm mmp u p.

• Inuential actors in Kandahar nevertheless attempt to maintain inuence over the tribal system and otengz , m, g b .

t kz my y p k. t kz my Qu su tbh

mg m pu .

• Since 2001, Ahmed Wali Karzai has gradually built a powerul empire in Kandahar through theupp g b by bgg u u p' y mm,my, g .

• The Karzai amily's leading members, Hamid, Mahmoud, Qayum, and Ahmed Wali, have builtg u p, gg my' p .

• President Hamid Karzai reassigned Kandahar Governor Gul Agha Sherzai to Nangahar province in2005, pg m au k, my y. t g am w kz m p.


6www.UNdERSTANdINgwAR.ORg




execUtive sUMMarY

k' p m m by mm my .h

• Ahmed Wali Karzai is at the center o a number o these networks, and has considerable inuence bu k cy , g p uy, , g .

• His control o private security orces, as well as his inuence over contracting rms like Watan Risk Mgm a suy Gup m p y u bu .

• Ahmed Wali Karzai has ormed alliances with other key strongmen in Kandahar, who control transitu u mm/my . t gm u a nz, abu rz, Mu k.

• Family members and allies o Gul Agha Sherzai run a rival commercial network to Ahmed Walikz'.

am w kz u m p ag g mh

p gm k.

• Through the Independent Directorate o Local Governance, the Karzai administration in Kabul ppm p g , gg b p gm.

• Given Ahmed Wali Karzai's inuence in Kabul, local government ocials understand that challenging am w kz' u u jpz p uu.

• Local powerbrokers have intentionally kept the ocial police orce weak. This allows them tompu p isaF y p uy mp. Bu my mp by am w kz, u b u u.

t ppu gm u gy m h

y .

• Anti-government sentiments are exploited and aggravated by the Taliban. Many o the localpb u m w kz’ tb ugy y b m p pp.

• The 2009 presidential and provincial council elections demonstrated that Ahmed Wali Karzai’sppu b k g.

dp m ppu upp, am w kz’ m p h

p p. t :

• That the international coalition, despite growing rustrations, will continue to give him de actoupp m g um .

• That he will continue to receive critical state backing and continue to control the ormal government k. h um hm kz u upp m gmm kbu g u u b’ p y.

• That he will maintain the ability to exert power over locals through his use o orce and his control p my.





mAP 1 | AfgHANISTAN POlITIcAl mAP




Politics and Power

By c Fbg

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t pp um ym, p p p

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um am w kz u m kbu ub m gm u , yz g ym k’ uy . impz ym kbu pg mp k, , p, - p . s yz

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gm, p isaF bp.

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pb mug. t ppu gm u up gm k m m gy p u by u gu my.

isaF gy b kbu k u p

INTROdUcTION

t U s’ p gy ag . t u kbu g pp kz gm

g. t kz m b puug pp bzg ag, -pup isaF’ gy. a g py p mgg ag, p gpb mm g by kz m, u mg u .1

in k anda h ar




mAP 2 | KANdAHAR PROvINcE





p k bu ppupp k’ gm u gpy, g u mp 2009 , am w

kz’ mpu b ym, g k’ p ym . t pp uby g y isaF’ mg k b , pp m gg pp bg b g isaF’ my,, pm u.

Kandahar: Basic Population

dg b mgp b mj g k, m

by b ppu gu p. o ppu uy k p u 2003-2004uy by ag im Mgms (aiMs), m ppu k P 913,900, pu ppu k cy 323,900, 144,300 u g y’ubub. t gu b 1979u, ag.2 t

ag c s ogz um umb, mg m p’ ppu 1,080,300 by 2009.3 t g u mg umb , py k cy, ppu y, my ugy u by.4 k cy bm y u k, bu u y pp (idP) m Uuzg hm.5 a 2009, m b m ugg y’ ppu m ub

y u 800,000, ug mm ugg y’ ppu g m.6

t bu ppu u k cy m. tg b mm m u ub , c m ugg up gy- p

k’ ppu k cy ubub. t y sp B-w b P g , , k cy,

ppu my umb m 50,000, m g hgy o, ug sjy hz M g g. 7 t 2004 aiMs guugg m 250,000 ag agb r vy agb,Pj Z ppmy 100,000 s

w k, kz, G, M n.8 t ppu gu y 2010, g gg u .9 t 2004 ppu uy

m 10,000 ag sb rg , ug my b g ppu uu u mm b m P, m 55,000 mu Mu ag. tm gy u , m k’ p ym. 10

TRIBE ANd STATE IN KANdAHAR

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by g pu, bu -mg gy u b m mm . 17

tb gz k y b my m. t p k’ y – dumy muj tb – y u m.Ug p uu p ug pp k y.

The Durrani Monarchy

t p du my, m 1747 1973, ug

up-b , g m m p m g b b uy, bu puy mg k’ bp, gy mg

py bm g uy.18

t pm up-b k uqu y

du b, g y u ag. du Pub z k m h Gzyy 1730.19 t du b k, mg p’ b ubg pu Gz.20

am s du, mmb duPpz b, u du , my mpg, qug g p m ag. 21 i 1747, pm s ag,

p y mpu by du m k. F 200 y, u 1970, ag uby du g.22

dug u, my uy k bm m ag. w k’du b g y bm .23 a guy bu u, du g p pg, by bu pg. t p g k bu gg y, du mgy ppy p,bmg g . B k y

b m maliks m y g k’ ppu, pyg y u u. U

ag, , b g

p , ub, y – pm Pu .24

The Zirak Durrani Tribes Become a Super-Tribal Elite

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up-b ag mm Z du b. t agy my m m Ppz b , 1842, m Bz. a u, b m puy g ag mpm u k.26 tPpz pu umb ag’g p, ug kz my,27 k Ppz b g p g .28

w k Ppz, g y b sz, m

ag s m 1747 1842.29

t Bz b, my, m ub,

y, u pg k’b.30 t Bz puy u k cy, y ubub g d dm uug k cy.31 ts ag m 1840 1970 m m Mmz ub-b Bz, my Mmmz kbu. ty Mmz m p bu pp u k. i Mmz, nu nu m

pm Bz k, mp p g Bz .

t az b m agb bg k cy, az mmu kz s w k.32 t az y b kbu Ppz Bz. Pp u,

b’ p m mu g pp ug 1980 1990, u 2007 az pu g u m.33 t az b k b p sp B, Pj.34 i sp B, az az m. t az’ g m p b ag P g m ub u, y p pu guy g muggg u.35 t p

az k upp gm g mgg um -b ,36 ug u Uuzg ub-b az m mj m tb ugy.37

THE PASHTUN TRIBES OF KANDAHAR

GHILZAI

Hotak GhilzaiZirak Durrani Panjpai Durrani

KhuganiNoorzaiIshaqzai AlizaiBarakzai Polpozai Alokozai Achakzai

Mohammedzai

DURRANI

cHART 1 | THE PASHTUN TRIBES Of KANdAHAR





The Panjpai Durrani, the Ghilzai, and the Baluch

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b p du m Gz b g uy.38 tPjp du b nz, az, iqz – gy b u Z, Pj, M.39 t az iqz b pug G, kz, s

w k. t nz iqz gy fu Z du, m y b m g guu b g

agb r.

40

t gup m ymp tb. a g umb tb mm nz, m, m k cy, ubgm m Z du gup m u m .41 Y nz g p-tb m k, ag’ p F,nz m pu F m p-gm .42

i k zb m Gz b, du. t Gz gbg Zbu P, bu g Gz m

y s w k d.43 My Gzm mg g g Pj Z, y m y fu m m-.44 Mu om, Qusu tb, m m

fu h Gz m u Zd, m tb mm uu g mgz gup.45 t b gup Pj Z dup m mu .46

a mgp k m

ppu m, -Pu, Bu B bm mg ug y ppu u sb rg.47 t b y

Bu P P, puy upb tb u.

Bu p b k, b u k kcy my b m uu b Z du b y Pjp du, b du Gz gup.48 t p m

b , bu Z dub b m m

ag my. Bu my Ppz Bz m b g my

, ju nz Gz mp g ag .49 tb kcy b uy, k cy b m gup -Pu P pg hz, tj( F k) Uzb.50 Bu b p

k cy, by b m mp p

k, 2001 by-b g b p y’ m u u: mg gz pum .51

Mujahideen and Taliban Eras: The Receding Authority o Kandahar’s Tribes

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k b up mg mmu gm.53

t u b y k u upp 1980 by

mm muj, b-b ag gu mm p s 1979.54 t mm by b, bu p m u m uy m

p by gz bm. a m b gu m abul p b mm,umg Bz b upp gg yug g Pyu. Up l’ 1989, p , Gu ag sz,uy g ng p.55

a s 1989, mmu gm P njbu Pp’ dm Py ag(PdPa) mg k cy y, mujmm uug uy. PdPa g n-u hq Umu b upp m kbu by ug mujp. w njbu gmy 1992, g mujmm m p u mm. k cy b g muj mm,

u g y qu p b. M g muj mm m 1990 u k 2001. t mj muj mm m 1992-1994,

m m p 2001p :

Bz mm Gu ag sz, •

g k d d 1992-1994.56

az mm Mu nqb, •

agb d m 1980, g mm

tb m kug u.57

Ppz mm am l, •

mu s w k d

m 1992- 1994.58

az mm hjj am, •

gy sp B k cy m 1992-1994.59

nz mm U hm, •

p Pj d m1992-1994.60

Mu sb, gy Gz•

hzb- im py u k’ muj p 1992. sb g muj mm u k, uy bum dub. 61

hbbu J, az b•

u sjy, kcy m 1992-1994.62

t mm z g mu gm u

u, m g bm bu p g k’.63 tb p bm gy b u , mujmm mu ug ub u .64

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mmu u bg b b . F

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my y y m b p, b p, g by p b.65

t tb 1994 b

by mg ppu m muj gm. i g Pj d k cy,

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p u Pup uu b by mmu u muj mm. t b uu y b m p ju, tb mu, ugy u b m Pu uu, b uumy. U muj mm, m tb y

k’ g. t tb’ gupp sharia p ju u .68

t tb -b du Pu m k

ag gm. a dumy kz gm , tb k u

u upp ( P gb j) u -p mu ppu. t tb’ p m by

k y m k’ b ym, bu p m g by.69 t tb p bb k’ b pu u gm. s m tb’ supm su du Pu,bu du m m b g ubb , ju m Ppz Bz. 70 t tb g Gz ag gm, Muom p tb

Gz.71

Bu y ppu k b p tbu, tb m m p, , uu k, upp. t tb, mmu b m, du m, mpg uy pgm ppu.t pu b pub m , u by um

wb g , , k g my u y up m.72

Pp m pbm tbmm g u p’ y m y

ab j om B l (p mu m k) k’ uu. i ,p g y g n a p m

k.73

By 2001, tb y b p upp,bu ppu k.74

t tb 2001 mpp uum. i u y y du y, bp, muj p, tb g b





b , , upp, gup p-tb p

gu b upp. i uum, p y g bg u

b .

THE KARzAI fAmIly: HISTORy,

INTERESTS, ANd RISE TO POwER

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ag gm p up bg.

t kz my’ p by U.s. bu mu kzmy’ my p gu.i m y, kz my b m ug u

ag g, g , m mp yg g p k kbu.

The Structure o the Karzai Family

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– P hm kz, bQyum Mmu, yug -

b am w – p u g p u.75 e u py p my’ y, bu uy m g m.oy, , ug bhm kz am w kz, mg.Fquy g b hm am w p g

g . hm kz b mg m k, am w p, ‘ yu’ mg m uy,’ b mg u.76 i 2006,

hm kz umm U.s. amb cia Mi6 kbu y am w kz’m ug .77 Bu pu u , hm umy b’ k, pyg y uy b.78 am w kz Mmukz py gu pé bum by w ju y m g hm kz.79 t y p

p’ b m p m g g upp p’ b u um Pkz m b g.80

tu, pp u kz my b bu bj hm, Qyum, am w, Mmu. dz kz ag p p y, ug y mp g

my’ , y g y u g kzb, y m uy.

e kz p p’ b m p P, mpu my phm m.81 hm kz umy my’ pm, y b u, hm pu uqu mg

gu.82

Bu kz my, g p, b g hmkz uy ug--umb p p qu g ag u my’. hm kz’ my p m m b m m, py, pub, my mmb my





umb up m m ggy p my .83

Karzai Family History

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B 1978, Ppz kz my du m m k b m u Mmzs.84 hm kz’ , abu

a kz, g gu m Z s ( u

ag m 1933 1973) g dpuy

sp ag Pm 1960.85

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m b.88

Bu abu a hm kz y -s mP,89 y p gz uug sbgu Mj’ agn lb F, mm muj g sup.90 ty u m du b uu u ag,ug my’ u m g muj mm

pm.91 w s m ag 1988-1989, abu a hm kz g -m m gm by Muj,

p mmu gm s-upp P njbu 1992.92

B 1992 1994, gg muj gm,

hm kz g mP Muj dpuy FgM muj gm uP rbb.93 kz bug b

pm : by y 1990, hm kz y -pby umb U.s. s dpm ,

kz “ , by, y p.”94 kz

u m U.s. g ag . By 1994, , hm kz u rbb’ tj-m gm, P.95

w tb bg p 1994 1995, kz y upp mm.96 h my mmb tb p k. w tb kbu 1996, y kz p mb Un.97 Bu kz quy u tb, jugg mm b-p by P isi gy u u ab gup,uy ug -Q, u bu tb , hm kz j tb

gm.98

am w kz, yug abu a by , p mu muj p cg, mg b my u.99 Buu Qyum Mmu, U.s. m-1990 j -b hm Qu, P.100

am w’ u Qu mu p p hmkz. am w m

yy my by pg mmu p abu a by mp by mmut gm 1970.101 hm m yy 1990 by ug Qu, bu by y upp b hm, ju Mmu, , u hm’u i.102 t my hm





b b b.

Bgg 1998, kz , my u Qu, gz tbmg Pu . w kz m

m m tbp, -tb g u g u Mu om.i p hm kz’ , tb abu a Qu 1999.103

hm kz’ p ’ 1999 y mm my’ u pm k.kz gz m u p u ’ m my’

g kz, u k cy.104 Pgm m tb p k p gzg pp mg k’ b.105 t b m m kz, ug pm u, pb p, m g ’ m p k’ Ppz b.106

i 2000 2001, hm kz bg p am s Mu,

m mm n a, p m b -tb Pu upg u

ag.107 kz, g u b am w, bm mpgu u -tb Qu gg, bu kz m uy g tb.108 By umm 2001, ,hm kz’ Qu ug P gm,

upp Mu om’ gm, kz P by spmb.109 tug am w kz y b y hm Qu , Qyum kz bmgg ag m U s,

bb U.s. gm upp -tb gup.110

The Fall o the Taliban and the Karzais’ Place in the NewPolitical Order

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s u my g tbgm. w U.s. u p,hm kz g b pg u.111 ep m P, kzm b m, g m Qu k Uuzg p mg b upg g tb.112 hg m

hm kz, yg m pmg -tb , cia U.s.sp F upp m py ug

u tb m k.

113

hm kz’ Uuzg y m u, bu U.s. sp Fm j g mu u t k, du b j kz m k cy m . 114

t U.s. py k mmuj mm m Gu agsz, by kg b u by tb 1994 mbz mmuj mm.115 k cy sz, kz, dmb8, 2001. sz kz b y mm m uy bu U.s. upp y : sz pu b m u U.s. g m by cia.116 Y, y g tb gm by gu, U.s. bg – u az mm Mu nqb,

y upp tb’

p 1994, kz y u tb’u.117

t U s’ p m p b kcy , ug umu ,ug m muj mm ug du émgé u g





ppu ag. hmkz by gup ag p mg B,Gmy ag’ m

P gg k dmb 2001.118 h b m , ry pp u b mp m U.s. P. w hm kz kbu dmb, b am w Qyum k, hm’ p

U.s. Gm.119 tug hmkz y ugg Mu nqb k g, U.s. b sz,

g ppm .120

a uy kz’ my m ag 2001, g mp p u m , my mp p ugp y uby g u ag

mmuy. t my’ y 1980 u b

ag p amu p mg .121 t kz g up m y u.122 hmkz p ug--umb muj p P ug 1980 kbu gm m 1992 1994, g pm p 1990 .123 Mmu Qyum

p g ug wbu p U.s. ag py, pug m p u w py, m.124 w kz p p mg p ym gg P kz’ u y bu p b k. tu, dmb 2001, Mmu Qyum j hm am w

ag, my p m m p, u b . hm g m,

Mmu bu bu mp, am wbu mp k, Qyum quy mpu g b my’ éminence grise.125

The Karzai Family’s Motivations and Interests in Kandahar

ky ug kzmy ug m

. am wkz’ k gy pp mbu puu - y . Bu kz my

m b m mp p , p b by pp my p ag, by my’ puu g m b ggy ag .

sg 2002, p b m am wkz m

gy k, g p’ p g my

muuy uppg g. t gy Qyum kz, ug m m kz-.126 am w kz’ pp k ummz by p 2009: “t uy u by g. t g’ b, u, pu. t ag. i gbu g g.”127 am wkz u mpg p u ag qu mm b mg, -p, by . t p by gm uy ag. ngup u b b g,

"This is a country ruled by kings. The king's

brothers, cousins, sonsare all powerul. Thisis Aghanistan. It willchange but it will not

change overnight." - Ahmed Wali Karzai





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t kz my bu

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m am w kz qum g m -bug mu p y p.

i g kz my g ggy bu mp mm m, ug mm m mu mmuy’

g u upp. tby k P y tb my p y kzmy y b y p ggy, bu, pp ugg, y m, k, m p g.

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k.130 sz’ p gby ub u p g u p. h p m um u u, mpz

mg u bu k, , puy Bz bm, p ,ug p ug pg.131

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Building the Karzai Empire in Kandahar

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2005 and Ater: Ahmed Wali Karzai’s Work Comes toFruition

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mAP 3 | cENTRAl KANdAHAR PROvINcE




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fAmIlIES, cARTElS, ANd mIlITIAS:

THE INfORmAl POwER STRUcTURE

ANd POlITIcAl EcONOmy Of

KANdAHAR

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PHOTO 1 | KANdAHAR cITy




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THE HASHMAT KARZAI INCIDENT

Recent murder allegations against Hashmat Karzai, head of the powerful Asia Security Group, raise interesting questions about the relationship between the Karzai brothers and the host of extended family members who have in

the last several years capitalized on their relatives’ rise to power.

A December 2009 New York Times article revealed accusations that Hashmat killed eighteen-year-old relativeWaheed Karzai in October 2009 in order to settle a longstanding family blood-feud. Members of the Karzai familywere alleged to have covered up the allegations and encouraged family members not to bring it to the police, allegationssupported by the two month lag between the incident and its first report in the press.

After the murder allegations were publicized in the New York Times, Mahmoud Karzai publicly disowned HashmatKarzai, stating that “Hashmat Karzai is not a good man in my opinion...I do not associate with Hashmat Karzai and he is not our family.”

It is unlikely that the family followed through on Mahmoud’s statement, and there has been little news on Hashmatsince December. But if the Karzai brothers do in fact distance themselves from Hashmat, it would suggest that they’ve

come to consider many of their extended family members more of a liability that an asset.

This group of extended family includes Hashmat’s brother Hekmat, who runs a Kabul think tank often consulted byISAF, politician Jamil Karzai, NDS (National Directorate of Security) deputy Jamar Karzai, businessman HashimKarzai, and private security firm directors Abdul and Rashid Popal. Many of these cousins tend to be brasher and more open in their pursuit of self-interest, and have garnered negative publicity in the Afghan and western press.

While Mahmoud and Ahmed Wali Karzai have had their own fair share of negative publicity, they show some savvy indeflecting accusations, and may fear that family members like Hashmat need to be reigned in.

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226

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The Sherzai Network in Kandahar

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Sherzai and Karzai in 2009-2010

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WHO’S WHO - KEY FIGURES IN KANDAHAR POLITICS

KARZAI FAMILY

SHERZAI FAMILY & ALLIES

Hamid Karzai - President of Afghanistan.

Ahmed Wali Karzai - Younger half brotherof Hamid Karzai. President of the KandaharProvincial Council and key powerbroker in Kandahar. Qayum Karzai - Older brother and close advisor of Hamid Karzai. Resigned from Parliament in 2008,and now heavily involved in reconciliation efforts.

Hashmat Karzai - Cousin of the Karzai brothers.Runs the private security company Asia Security Group.

Gul Agha Sherzai - Governor of Kandahar from 2001-2003and again from 2004-2005. Governor of Nangarharfrom 2005-present.

Abdul Raziq & Bacha Sherzai - Brothers of Gul Agha Sherzai.Major business interests include logistical supportfor Kandahar Airfield.

Khalid Pashtun - Former Sherzai spokesman, Member of Parliament, and head of major construction company.

Yusef Pashtun - Governor of Kandahar, 2003-2004, Ministerof Urban Development and Housing, 2004-2009.

Gul Alai - Sherzai lieutenant and major contractor in Kandahar.

ALKOZAI TRIBE

*Mullah Naqib - Famous mujahideen commander & leaderof the Alkozai tribe in Arghandab until his death of natural

causes in October 2007.

Karimullah Naqibi - Son of Mullah Naqib. Officially namedhead of Alkozai tribe by President Karzai in 2007, butexercises limited authority.

*Akrem Khakrezwal - Kandahar Chief of Police from 2002-2003. Served with distinction as Kabul Chief of Police beforebeing killed by the Taliban in 2005.

Agha Lalai Dastergeri - Kandahar Provincial Council member,close ally of Ahmed Wali Karzai and former head of the Peace

Through Strength (PTS) program in Kandahar.

NOORZAI FAMILY

Arif Noorzai - Afghan politician, Member of Parliament, and head of a prominent Kandaharfamily. He is a close confidant of President Karzaiand plays a key role in tribal engagement andreconciliation issues.

Mirwais Noorzai - Deputy Commander of the 205thCorps of the ANP. Interim Kandahar Chief of Police, July - September 2009, and close to the

Karzai family.

KEY SECURITY & MILITIA COMMANDERS

Abdul Razak - Commander of the Afghan NationalBorder Police in Kandahar, from the Achakzai tribe.

Matiullah Khan - Popalzai Commander of the Kandak-e Amniant-e Uruzgan and heavily relied on by ISAF toprovide security for the Kandahar Tarin Kowt Road.From the Popalzai tribe.

Jan Mohammed - Former governor of Uruzgan. Removedby President Karzai in 2005 with Dutch urging. Uncle of Matiullah Khan, from Popalzai tribe.

Sher Mohmad Akhundzada - Governor of Helmand, 2002-2005. Removed by President Karzai in 2005 with Britishurging.

*Habibullah Jan - Former Alizai strongman & Member of Parliament who controlled the town of Senjaray. Assassinated in2008, presumably by the Taliban.

Ustad Halim - Noorzai commander based west of Kandahar City.

GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS

Toryala Wesa - Governor of Kandahar from 2008-present.Spent several decades in Canada and is a childhood friend of Hamid Karzai.

Ramatullah Raufi - Governor of Kandahar from August 2008-December 2008. Removed after challenging Ahmed WaliKarzai’s influence.

Asadullah Khalid - Governor of Kandahar from 2005-2008,former governor of Ghazni. Removed with Canadian urging.

Gulam Haider Hamidi - Kandahar Mayor. Has lived in the USand is a close friend of the Karzai family.

*Matiullah Qateh Achakzai - Former Kandahar Police Chief,2008-2009. Killed by Kandahar Strike-Force in June 2009.

* (Deceased)

Ruhullah - Enigmatic Popalzai commander who has built a

monopoly over security provision on the Kabul to

Kandahar Road.




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The Other Powerbrokers: Abdul Razak, Ari Noorzai, and Matiullah Khan

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Ari Noorzai Family: Using State Power or Inuence inKandahar

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g kz my by g my y kp ug augu 2009 . a , M nz m puy mm 205 P cp –

anP qu mm anP u u ag. w u anP u, p upp kz’ u anP p my mm .

n a nz’ my . o a’ u, k pu mmb Mmm e, mp gu u Gmy

- by isaF. e m um kz my’ k, puby zg kzmp u k ug 2009.283 e b a nz u abu Q nz, ag ip hum rgcmm.284





Matiullah Khan and Abdul Razak

Mu k abu rz u a nz. B mp yp m mm:

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Mu k b m g Ppz Uuzg. h p m Uuzg G kz’ y J Mmm.

285 Mu k J Mmm b

Uuzg p, y y p kz, bu u p k, Mu y gm y b u s

w k n kp.286 Mu k’ u gy m -u mm, k- am Uuzg (kaU).i g b u Uuzg p, kaU mpy by isaF p y g m k Uuzg ug s wk uppy du g Uuzg. t k-Uuzg s

w k p ug tb g,mg ub tb .287 isaFpy Mu kaU $1,700 pu u g y y t k.288 Mu’ g ug y y g by tb, k y

y t k.289

abu rz, m, u m sp B k, py ug gy- g tb . aburz az azb 2003. tug y m-

m b , rz m b uy my mm b m upp

Gu ag sz.290 e rz’ azb my um , g rz’ yug g, u b y : y p b m, rz m

m . rz u az’m mp k’ug . t az b y m Gu ag sz’ m k 2001, ug Gu ag sz’gp, sz m y y rz m p m my mu.291

rz’ u sp B y m my g, bu m by u p bu sp B’ my.

a g az m mm b u u bu b

ag P.292 abu rz’ ag n B P u py mj g g my m mm g b m P.rz’ m mby m k P.293 i nmb 2009, mm rzq’ Qu r B,

u y by rz, p uy .294 t g sp B m umm 2008, U.s.dug em agy (dea) g z237 pum op ab, g p sp B. s pp,ug u i P p.295 G

abu rz’ m spB d z , g u

ppg pm m m abu rz’bm. i, ugg ug u ug sp B u u aburz.296

dp b bu muggg , , m abu rz





m ggy -tbpu.297 abu rz m b pmy g tb, b u.298 t tb g

gu m mpgm P gg ag sp B. Bu abu rz’m, b g

ag n B P, m g uy sp B.299

a am w kz p Gu ag sz pmy pb k, bg bu p rz.300

am w kz’ y, g au k, p p rz y g uy u k. 301 a b rz

am w kz my b u g gu

au w, g bum k m g hmP, b

am w rz.302 w’ smu p, ,

u spB.303 s mm my b m mp b , bu am w kz b mrz’ by u sp B. rz u b m pg umy g m by am w kz.304 i y 2009, am w kz sp B my pmg rz m c G, ug am wkz m y k’my p mm.305 abu

rz y b u kz my, m by augu 2009 p , rz’ b p u mpb-ug u P kz u m sp B.306

isaF b y y aburz Mu k p uy

sp B Uuzg k, py, g mp b isaF g u isaF’ m u. w my

b y, isaF mu b mm m gz puu p bu ugy.

abu rz’ az m, mp, gz suz nzb, y b

az, pp g m suz tb.307 a mp by G k u abu rz’ m upp tb Pj 2006 m u: rz’ m p u m up m j

tb.308 t m rz’ m g ppbm isaF, ug

g b tb pgy g p tb tb u

p m g rz’ m,b u.

Mu k u, m UuzgG J Mmm k, m, ymy um b Uuzg.309 w du Uuzg p bu p,Mu J Mmm y b tb, mm Uuzg

tb du p Mu u.310

isaF u b m mg m ( y bg abu rz’ u ag n B P), bumg g mu gg py p bu p


Abdul Razak clearlybelieves his ortunes

now rise and all withthe Karzai amily.




p. isaF sp F umg b p p g m u m y . isaFmu b mm um pbm mb

p p mm g puum u p ppu p u

ag gm.

Commander Ruhullah

w rz Mu u k m u ,py, nz my u u , y u g g k’ by gm Ppz mm mpy ruu.311 F yruu mQ Zbu k cy, ubg m w p uy ug k u m .312 a mm, abu kq, m M s Q, ruup u p ug p

uy g m kbu k. 313 ruu my b y m am w kz’ mp bu pu my-mm u ag, isaF u by mm ruu’ kz.

fORmAl STATE INSTITUTIONS

IN KANdAHAR AS TOOlS Of THE

INfORmAl POwER STRUcTURE

P ag quy b z, by gm uy. Bu m g uu uz by u ag uy g gm b m gm p.314

w pbm bu ag’ m

u, puy k, y p y bp u, ag’u, b mp, gy u u

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u m g p gm u, u m

u y pm. ay u u k mp by y , m u u u mp k, bm u b pu mpu by

u .

Ug u kz my ’ u aggm kbu g p ug y am w kz u

u p p. t bp yg b kz my’p p k . i b , kz p p py- p. i kbu, k, -bug my bm u, u y qu , y mm p m p gm, g g s, my p . a bug bg 2004, mg m g b kz my’ py- -bug isaF U n a M ag’ (UnaMa) m uz

.





Rise to Power and Evolution o Family Interests at theNational Level: 2002-2009

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gu b pp ag’ Pubu u u.318 Bu gup g gmm 2003 2005.319 dug pU.s. amb Zmy kz hmkz p g p,

mb P kz g u upp Us gm, u -“” y gu kz.320 i p kz pp umb mPu m – gu a G

a J – mp by U.s. w .321 t ppm m m guy n a’ m uy p up pby gup p .322

t kz my’ u mj b ly Jg, mu pp ag cu m2003 2004. t ly Jg pp mp kz my’ by

m p g.323

hm Qyum kz pu, upp U.s. mb Zmy kz, py mj pg u ym, bg g ag’mj .324 U p u u, hmkz y -y

m ag’ p ob2004 y- p .t ag cu 2004 g g b p u

b.

325

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w Jg, pp m jug my, p nds.326 t p p, ug y u b uum, mhm kz mg -pg pb by g

u ug aggm.

w ag n amby u – M Jg ( pp by p) w

Jg – m p bug g, y n amby p p.

327 s 2005, n amby m y by my

uuy g u.328

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w. a gu mp py b kz my u hm kz’ p u mp g 2005.

i u u g hm kz ub

m p u bg gm gm upp p . ag’ u m y u . Gg b p gu imk, Gu ag sz, G dum





g u kzgm. e gu mm u p u p m, u u m

g pg , buug g pp umy uppg p y u .330 My, u, ,mbu, y p , ug m M i h am,kz c s om duz, ip d l G(idlG) J Pp y kz my’ gg mmum ag p, j mgg

gy pu kz p mp kbu, gg g y.331

P kz’ uu uy , py mp by kz mpu m .332 h am, My i,d M abu rm w, nds amu s gu

jug mp p kz my.

Bu m u kz my’y, ym. a u, y g kz’ ’ u ppm, py u ag, y g y m p , ug kz , bu p u m.333

P kz u b- ub-ppm, ,

ag cu, u py pm u.334 epy ub- ,my ag g woleswal m z uu p p pg kz m, gy qu m’py bj.335 i ug ppm, g

p bu , kzm b – m mmy g – p p p,

b by b u p gm.336

t p kz ug ppm guy by mpu ppm p g. ag bjqu ug pu m ppm p m p py. a , kz’ my p m y umu wpu m qu pppm, mpu g. o puy mp mby kz my u

idlG, pby ppm p g g (woleswals). P 2007, ppm b m by ip am rm cs cmm by My i.337 t mmuy

g b pug m mp, y mpu ym u bu m-b ppm. o u, idlG pm . Bu g p mm umy P’ u ub- ppm, mm

y P mm u u. i , idlG p m m : g p u u kz m’ u p

p. t idlG’ , JPp, gy a G

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gg kz my’ g p, py

ag u. t idlG bm pu pg, by kz my b

u yy pp.339

2006 to the Present: Building State Autonomy rom theWest

t kz my bu p u u ag 2006 p uy bu p ub mmuy upp.i k, kz my bg

mpg gy 2002; kbu, p g uy b, g u 2006.

i My 2006, b u kbu U.s. my pg b. t -U.s. -kz g,y mup bug, ggu kbu p.340 t My 2006 p hm kz,

by n a p p u m. Fu, m p pu uy upp m u

ag .341 U 2006 p’ p b b upp mmuy, bu -g m b u

g bu g yg g upp.342 tu, 2006, kzmy bg gy u u p bu pu y uy u m p mmuy.

t g - g bg u gg umm 2006 isaF pu kz m y u. B du

g pby hm Uuzg p, py, isaF um pby u

ag. a p

pym B m kz s Mmm auz, g hm, du m m J Mmm, g Uuzg. kz B du m, bu py bgug b.343 t ugy g py hm mm m

auz’ m, pm kzbm mgz auz’pu uy .344 J Mmm,m,

kz’ Ppz.345

F kz, m auz J Mmmm isaF’ p jugm g ugy m kz’ g

.346 a isaF u g u-ugy mpg su

ag 2007 2008, kz bg p isaF su y bug ugy.t p bm py nato u, pub

mm bm mu ugy nato.

kz’ muu z py nato p’ by y ugy gg bP kz ag by bgg 2007. akz m umu p b , kz’p w g m

p u u, bj u w p m g . 347 tym b P kz

w y 2005 pum kbu U.s. amb Zmy kz, m mp b u ag p.348





P kz’ p bu wmp um m y g m 2007 2009, mg ug ag’ p 2009.349 a

my mg g-g U.s. kz U.s.m b gm m.350 a y ,P kz bg Us mby ag uppg mpg p , ug

abu abu a G.351 tu pg u ummu u u g kz mp UnaMa dpuy h pp

kz’ g, kz Us emby hbm u u, u- .352

t kz my ’ ,py b py mb, m py mmuy p ggu u u b u my’ p p. c mmuy g

m, kz m y-z umb y pb,ug M Fm, abu rdum, km k g upp, kz ubquy u p g g u mpu augu 2009 .353 tug m w mm pu 2009 kz, y m kz agp mmuy kz bu g ug u 2009

u upp. kz’ y g ag,mg ag p kz mg g ag p.354

Karzai Control over Formal Political Structures in Kandahar

P ym k bm mmp 2005, ag

g u am w kz’u k. am w kzmb m bu p p k 2005. t p gy p kz my’ u u.

a ag, ppm m m pm. iu u gu am w kzg gmu. c u ub am wkz p u p p.

The Theoretical Structure o Provincial Politics

t p- uu agcu g ag’ g p-py b p p gm. agp b p m bu u. ty m umy gy p u ppm, u u quy g pb.355

t p g uy m

ag’ p, pb g uy P gm p.rpby ppm pg by My iu 2007, idlG b g kz gm g ppm.356 ag g m p p gm m

kbu. ty m m ppm, pby kbu, bu y m p m m pby p p.357 t u p pb p g y y pg g’ b, p b





p, gm kbu. sm g a Mmm B m p p:, G w k,

u mpy p pb.358 t p p p g m pb ug m ( qu g kz m) g p gu .

t g g m, ug My F, My Pub h, My eu, My i, pb p gm.359 t m p p b m kbu p g. t m kbu pb ppm m my p bugg, pg y--y p p m p pp m pu.360

ag g p u(woleyati shura), by u

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u p.363

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ag cu m mup u mmuy g g

.365 t b, , b pp y.366

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a woleswal uy ,y y uy u m m m woleswals -u p.370

Kandahar’s Governors

k y g 2005, bu , u k’ g p p am w kz, k’ g y g. Bu p m

p, gp k mp bu p ggm isaF’ g k m 2006 2009.371 t y k’ m gm am w kz’ by mpu m p uu

y isaF’ g gy gg uyg p ym pg k.

au k k’ g

m 2005 2008, pg Gu ag sz 2005. 372 k m km Gz P y bp U.s. sp F. hy y am c m k, g g

am w kz p b ag isaF.373 G k, , m





k y kz my, m u p uu, k am w’ pm uy u.374

i pg 2007, k’ p isaF bg u, g m k u p by c nds.375 cg bu p u k’ uy p p mg isaF upp k.376 F p, k puby p u

g c , p uy, u isaF upp p u y m uy tb ug pum mpg.377

a g p cgm pu P hm kz p G k 2008.378 tkz pp b puy k, g uu bupb. t p y 2006 kz m m k, bu isaF mm k y my p m.379 k m ppuy k, k’ Gz p ppu my k m u.380 c pG k m, , mp pug kz gm ppm. i ap 2008, cFg M Mm B puby G k’ pm.381 Pkz, py g pg k, pp b m m

mpy p y- ag gy.382

i augu 2008, P kz pk G rmu ru, mm 205 cp km dmb 2005 Ju 2007. 383 ru

p by isaF m k, m

p mbu p m pp g ugy.384 hpp u g uy augu 2008 m gg pp

uy agb d.

385

ru’m mbu p, , k -b u Qyumkz -p 2008, u b g uy u yg b upp g tb.386 i y am w kz ru’ p g u .387 t

um, , ru mp am w’ .388

am w kz p Gru’ mp m p

by uy g uy. inmb 2008, m pg y gu g, uy qu, bu gu m p u, m b ag .389 sy ug m, Gru m m p.390 wu upp am w, G ru mp ug m g.391 ru’ u k m y-pp ag gm

g kz my’ k pu jpy um ub m mgu m.

G ru’ pm d. ty w, mmb Mmz Bz, m ag y my

.392 t ppm w p m m am w kz’p. a u g c, c U s gu bj w’

ppm, w bug b ug g p ug g .393 Bu w

P kz’ g p b buy g k p.394 tu,

w u mg isaF , p am w kz, m m g





kz’ . w p g isaF bm mp u pm .395 Bu p by isaF , w uy

p u. ig, g ug g p u m b g uy k.

t b g’ my b hj Mmm a, c s G.396 Mmm a puy y p gy pb g k’ gmg.397 h am w kz,

bu g y, p k’ g pb y up; a py G k u b mmu tb gm b jg kz gm.398

t k cy my, Gum hhm, y m p G w. hm my m u g, bu w, Mmz w u, gy

g by isaF, g m my kz, p am w kz.399

District Governors (Woleswals)

t u kz my idlG m pu kz my, g k

g w kz’ uy. d k m, mmy m m p m by kz-

u idlG.

t p p woleswal.400 i k, am wkz py g , p pb m g woleswal b umy puu . a y m b gm pm ppu, woleswal bu u m , u p

p m.t ppu m bm ug pym m ppu woleswal g gm.401 t m oleswal k b y g pum. i umm 2007 p k mmy gm pum g: gmpy m m .402

hj Zu, M woleswal u augu 2008, mp y woleswals u pmy m p g. l my kwoleswals, Zu p y p m M , mu utb u, pm k cy.403 h


PHOTO 2 | gOvERNOR TORyAlA wESA PHOTO 3 | gENERAl mIRwAIS NOORzAI




p , bu y tb M, mg m -, p g g y up, bu

.

404

hj Zu y pum M, u p- m g pum mp.405 lg isaF pym

ppu- : Zu quy u isaF B amu py M umm 2008, py mp uuy -p isaF u p .h mp u isaF p g pum g, y u

isaF b, qu isaF m p u .406

Zu y G auk, upp Zu mu m m isaF pg 2008.407 Bu k m m p g 2008, hj Zu

p . Zu’ u, Mun Mu, ub bu mu mpub p, M p u up

bu.408

t U.s. u . U.s. lc dhubu p y y bu p.409 a 2009 p g g, hjobu B M.410

i Z , by , p b m b. a c ku

az by tb u bmb 2007,411 woleswal b nyz Mmm

s. l Zu, s by ppu. h m bb p pppy p, g m p my py m , y gg u yby mpg ub pym.412 isaF b s, g b m Z, bu ps’ gg -tb

(s quy z isaF puug tb Z guy ug), u isaF u m.413

c p Pj , by

, bu g hjB, m muj mm nz b Pj woleswal ob 2007.414 c Pj y b hj B’g , m y -p .415 B u m u zg Pj Bz,

m c-pp Pj, y isaFb.416 hj B’ p

am w kz u m pu, bu by p jb ugg by am w . hj B’gy , Zu’m M, ugg pb k kbu my u by bup isaF u ,mm g gz isaF py, pg bu g .

a umb woleswal m k’ u m by tb ug k cy, y . a y bg -up m mpu ag nP, G Mmm azm

y u Juy 2009.417 hj abu wb, kz m 2008 2009, my -up uy u ( p 2008 p tb). 418 h

y by tb ied augu, 2009,y m b, uy mm, m y.419 hj hyu, n , m – m y Mu k – uy, mgy p .420





Security Forces

o m u qu uu k p m u-ugy p ym’ y

uy um g pm k’ p .i y u p y k’ pp, mg mm p uu g pb mpu p .

t p k tb Zb am, p

az b Mu

nqb. am G sz sz’u, nz J, b m

am’ puy. nz J g m p, u u pu ppu k m . ag p, nz J’ p u pb m mm k.421 am uuuy nz J 2002.422 P kz y m nz My 2003, bu p m Gu ag sz.423 Pp mp sz m mm m p , Pkz Zb am m k p Mz- s m . Zb am gu m gy mp mm kbu Mz- s, b bg

g k 2005.424 t azu m u k’p bm Juy 2004, G

k Mmm az m mm k’ my p mm p .425 Bu kMmm p y m, p p py p u. a up p pp bM 2005 spmb 2006.426

P p k ug g au kum gp 2005.427 G k’ mp

p u k p, w m mu,u g u pp. i y m p k p .428 k’mp u umuuy m u m by m My i(Mi) Mi p, b m-b pm ym. t ug by

mmuy bu uy upp, by umm 2007.

k m-m p 2006 2007. k Pc s azz am w, umm 2006, p u m b bg p by emu

az.429 az p p pp p m-b mpgm p by c Prt k. az m u mp

m p ym, gzg am w kz p.430 h m k p ug umm 2007, y umg mm.t k P cu u

az “g u p u G’ o Pcu,” ug p u g uy p .431 tm p p az by P kz’ ppm p b

g.432 t u Mi pm u ag mby y muu umm 2007 Gm gbg hm p. t p ppby Mi Gm p m pgm p y b pp p m by p mm





pb.433 t g u Mi mp mm u ag.

a m-2007, k’ p

u jb uy qu gg up am w kz’ , Mi g pu mu p k.t kz my, p, , b p, pp p p g p, ug g u g mbp. i k p , y um p p m mm bm.434

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umy k’ bm . Q Ju 2009 , y mmb am w kz’cia- k s F k p qu mg m mp m y

.438 t Mu Q m b u p p. a k

m g, um az p bm

am w kz p.439 oy p Q g,

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t Mu Q p kz my, m pp M nz m p ug 2009 P . a b am w kz’ b-- a nz, M nz yp y. h kz my pp pp mm b 2009 p

, ubquy u ug b y m u u k.441 i 2009, M nz

pm puy mm 205 Pcp – pb u

ag – p by s Mmm Zz. Pmm Zz , my

pu p, p ug up m

y b.442 a 2009, p

k p by am w kz’ : M nz, m u p puy g mm, by Fz am sz, k cy c P, m nz b b au sz hm’ p p .443

The Eects o the Political System on Kandahar’s PoliceLeadership

G u m mujmm , p k uuy up b2005, pu py u k cy. t u p


Ater mid-2007,Kandahar's policechies understood

that their jobsecurity required

not interering with

Ahmed Wali Karzai'sinterests.





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a 2005, , g bu upp y p by y

gu, m u k. i p-2005 p mm gu m ubu,

y bu mm b p up, bubu y u u.444

t u pm k’

- p u ymm by k’ ug , g m u pp. n y k’ p m y pb y p u , bu u p m. k’p y mp y ub myp u k p p gu mmbyp p uu.445 w

au k k’ g, umb u p y m.G k p p u, 005 sby B, mu bug k m mGz.446 i Ju 2008, d ’ p F Mmm m

y y p p m, m u m d p y G k.447 ana m 2008

2009 u “p” u b g y mm u u b ana m u, bu

p b p by am w kz.448 o gu u kcy uy isaF; Juy 2009, isaF ana anP p Mu am au p y,

pg gu b g anP.449

t py mm p uu

pb by g m mpu p . a ub, my k’ b mp m. w p mm m m bmy g p, gg m gmy, ug u mu m mm.450 i , p u mp p my m’ bu m, mmu anP ug u. op p umb k gy p umb : y p u umb uy m.451 n y mm p - p, bu mm m my p u pb, b m mupu.452 My gum Gk’ 005 sby B, mp,

muuy mpy by gu anP, 005 B, by p

uy m UsPi.453

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i b mm p tb k’ p u g u ug ppu. t m mm um b p

k’ gy , p b mm u muj u y 1990, mjg tb p.454 cp u y tb, bu, g pp, bm qu y u g y isaF p m.455




t p b uy ppy k.456 t m , uy gz ppu, g pp m p

u m g p pym g p, yp .457 t ym u by p p k.458 i u pg pm mm, p p pym m u. F ju p mm, pym ’up gy u .459

ISAF and Police Reorm

t c my mp gg m k’ p 2006. By 2007, c b g p p, y isaFmg ag p u ug mm pm p.460 c up P opMg l tm (PoMlt), mb m um ag p u p byp up mm mm p , upyg y ag p .461 isaF up Fu d dpm(Fdd) pgm, pu p u ug g- g u pm c m, 2008. U

mp Fdd g agUm P (aUP), gu m m my m g agn P (anP).462

Bu y mg m Fddpgm , bm-up m , bu b u m k’p u. t k p um by p p m- - mm by g umb p u pby isaF m

by. isaF’ mg k ym u m by p by cmb suy tcmm-ag/nato tg M-

ag (cstc-a/ntM-a) gb pg gg Mi’ mm m gup k rg cmm-su.t mu, mmum, u ppm g p p mm, g m p mm m g g b uy .

National Directorate o Security

i p , kz my nds u

ag, k nds b g gz y kz my .

t nds u mp p u py gg kz my’ u ag. t nds kbu by amu s, tj mpuy Mu. Bu s m

u gz p p my bu am bg.463 hu gz k.464 s kz my mmb nds hqu kbu u kz u p nds buuy. t pb g b nds k b m by g kz.465 t k nds c, pp ob, 2009, c M a, Bum nmuz puy nds F h p

ag.466 t p u p k nds ’ p, bu mm g k nds gy y kzmy.467

t k nds pu






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w my b b mg cia,

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mp, nds py ana m u ana isaF p u u g m.471 G p nds kz my, nds’ mg mp p m g my b p p su.

t gum g am w

kz’ gz nds, p b m uy k, pu m p, g m uy p. Bu y isaF am wkz uy k, ug p uy y .

AHmEd wAlI KARzAI ANd POPUlAR

AlIENATION fROm THE gOvERNmENT

G p ym b b, u b upg m k

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k’ b p u u ympm gg .

The Signifcance o the 2009 Elections in Kandahar

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mpu u m umb , bg m p.475 tug 2009 my g hmkz’ kbu,476 y gy

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lg up , kz mp my k

p b kzgm.478 t, mb u P kz u mpmjy ’ u, p u-, am w kz’ k pb mu mmz hm kz’

.479 am w kz u u mg g upp pb, b

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p um kz.

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bu u. t ip ecmm’ (iec) um

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kz mu 5% k’ ppu, mg P m p, m m k kz gm .485 sm w ugg

p-u gu

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. a augu 2009, gup

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Bz, B b g , pg u , b b u kz by p.489 sm u p sp B d, anBPu u mm kz’ y G

abu rz, u m b-ug m . i ag

Aghans may tolerate certainlevels o corruption; they will

not tolerate a small cliquethat has exclusive access tothe hundreds o millions o

dollars in grat moving throughKandahar.






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p m - pg .491

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by m m 1,500 upp,my m b y by Um’ p .496 a G

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Mmm ayub r ug m, G abu’ k MP p , yug, u g upp

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k bm p , bug upp mg u, am wkz g y. i , u, p am w kz, b pbm 2010 , py

am w kz m m gm u k.500

2009 Provincial Council Elections

t b p u pg 2009 P cu kP. h, m u u by ip ecmm ugg g pbm .

U p, Pcu u spmb, 2009, k P cu




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.503

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y p u mmb, bu p .

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By ug m am wkz, u gup uumb am wkz, g g 2005 p u .t gup u sy kz, Bm

agm, am s k.504 oumb u Mmme, mm

u am w kz pp, u’ mp, pp, pb g pu p

gy g g m .

505

F u mmb , my m m m m m u g bu u buy . 506

t 2009 P cu pp k P cu

uy p ppu k. t P cu y b u k, bm y m by am

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Tribal Dynamics and Alienation rom Kandahar Government

isaF b ggm bu m g p pg p umm 2010 p k.i gu b ggm mg b m g am w kz’ u,g g p ppu g m bu ppu tb mg.510 isaFu b ump bu by bggm u gu ppu buy- gm g pb am w kz pu mpu b uu p . su m u g ppu buy- gm, b ggm y u u p






k’ p ym.

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g k’ b up p m. Bu y y u gg m umy p gm. t

am w mpu b gy u pu b p. t b u p , puy k y y m . i uy y ubm g k,

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p, bu kz upp m Mmmz Bz m

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Bu my k’ ub-b

p kgm by u y b ppu gm. e mg ub-b

, ug Ppz Bz, m p gm mmm m y, gm m u buy- gm.515

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b pg u.h u , nGo’pg k, isaF m u qu

am w kz. P am w kz’p p bm Arbab – u m-bz i-Py – u mg p’b , g p gg




m u, g g u p .

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u uz u u u , gup ug g u. t p by

Qyum kz bm by’ b k.

Bu g kz my’ muu b u, ppu m, u, am w, Qyum, b g u p g, ug

b ug b isaF.524

The Karzais and the Insurgency

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m u mg pm pb k. am w m pp m mmu tb mm, by mp b u 2009p .529

amp g y u tb mm k augu,2009 ugg am

w kz’ tbmm. i m b ,

am w kz u ggmpg nato upp g y u tb mm, p my u g Mu om’ up .530 am w m ,

bu tj py, umb tbmm g . 531 Bukz’ u tb m u m u y : tb m u ugu pg u.532

t p k b mp bg Qu su p gg b, mpy g mm. t kz mg p. i2008, Qyum kz gz mg ug p su ab, m

by kg abu.533 t p kz gm b ug Mu B, pmm Qu su tb,

p. B, kzm m Ppz b, b p tb by kz my y . a M, 2010, su m m pg, Qu su p u ,mg mp g p y u. 534

amp bg Mu B my my b pmg , bu y

P gm B u m.535

G u Qu su tb b u, mpu g b“umy bu jyg p

ag bu bgg by uy ug mpm.”536 i jyg p y m up 2009 p. t kz my b upp m Pugup ag u

b gm Pu tb mm u, my b mg pp u.537

t kz’ upp g m , u by p m ppg . t kz isaF u ug kz gm,

u mp by P kz my b mp m gu u kz m umy p .538 P mj kz, b p up P g ag gy. a y g pu tb y m P.





Umy, u qu uu m kz m’ u ag. t pby b am w kz k hm kz kbu,

m pm, am w kz’ ,my b u p g p ppu k ubbj gm.

Ahmed Wali Karzai and Population-CentricCounterinsurgency

am w kz’ u p p isaF’ uugy p, Fm2006-2008, mpz m pm b pu k, g py . Bu y pp mpm uy-uppu uugy k.539 am w kz ugg uugy gy,nato u 2001,

ug p, ug gg m. i spmb 2009

am w kz gu nato p

k. h mpm b m k, gug isaF u mpy “m ag, m pp m g…

w yu m ab [b um] p , y u bm.”540 nato’ u py g tb buy mub am w kz. Bu

am w kz m -gm uy k, juby um isaF’ p

u b u, uy cia’ k py, k s F.541 G w y ap, 2010, umm p

u b “b g” g p – gug mg b j g m my b m am w kz’ mg p gg m.542

t g ppu-uugy gy am

w kz, ug, isaF’ by p my ub m p uu, u

isaF mu gm u .

Pp op om (“hp” Pu), isaF’ ppu-uugy p ku umm 2010, bug M y

ap 2010. r u k p ug u

am w kz’ u, u

bu y w p, am w kz g g gmpm.543

t gg b am w kz isaF p isaF’ umm mpg k g bgg ap, 2010, P kz kz upp kbu, ug i M am, b upp P’ b. o ap 5,

2010, hm kz p gg 1,000 k, pmg p

u b u u ag , mbguu m, g qu p pp k.544 P kz’ mmm pg b g my p p my mp

jugm bu uugy p, ugg pby P p

pg.

cONclUSION ANd POlIcy

REcOmmENdATIONS: ISAf ANd

KANdAHAR POlITIcS

k’ p b p by p ugg uum 2001, gu my y






gu p. isaF U s b mpu by , u, bu gpb m gu. t u uub

u, g gm, py tb’ b g p ag su.

Ahmed Wali Karzai and the Crisis o ISAF Strategy inKandahar

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b’ m m m p’ gm u bp . h uy ubg , m u bu g p.

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am w kz’ m pp m ppu upp bu up

p p .t :

t p isaF’ gg u,•

u g m upp m g um .

t u •

bg m gm k. t um hm kz

u upp m kbum g u u

b’ p y.

t m by •

p pb ug u by p my.

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g ug gm k, gm u mp m g isaF . ey, am w kz p k g pp.

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k. isaF py am wkz by bu: b by g p aggy, m gg

am w kz mpy b by . Bu u p kzgm, g g g.t mu u g



u mg am w kz p pu p ub. isaFmu um m p

am w kz’ u um b m gmu, ppu m ugy, bu uy mm g.

Inconsistencies in ISAF Strategy, 2006-2009

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g ag u um gbj. t g u m ag ’ by uuy p mp ju. Bu u m uum, k g gu y b bu m p ym m um p.

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g uy. tug g, isaF pu m upp p m.

isaF my u g u k 2008. t c gm bgg umb p P ru tm 2008, rp c k. 546 t

U s bg uppm c 2009. Bu u , m, isaF u

pup k.

A New Strategy

isaF mu p up gy m p



PHOTO 4 | PRESIdENT HAmId KARzAI mEETS wITH TRIBAl lEAdERS, ISAf cOmmANdER gENERAl STANlEy mccHRySTAl

ANd AmBASSAdOR mARK SEdwIll, THE SENIOR NATO cIvIlIAN REPRESENTATIvE IN AfgHANISTAN ON 5 APRIl 2010.





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a p mu p p. t g gbj bu k’ uu ,

isaF’ u g, y tb k’ g-mby:

sg, p uy u•

mp g mmu pb mu b b. lgmgm uy mu mpy u pm mu b b.

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t b pb g •

u u gu buy- k p gm. sumu bm u b p, by pb.

a ug g ym mu b•

b, pu uqum ppu mu bm by mb gm b mm.

Dealing with Ahmed Wali Karzai

am w kz’ u k b y isaF’ gbj, py g

am w kz mu b m y p gy. t m mmqu isaF -à- am w kz p m ug u

k p, p m,pp ug g m. tu k my bm m m am w kz m p, pg isaF ana’ by p . i m--g m, m u isaF’g g by g mp aggm u isaF mg

THE KARZAI’S CHALLENGE TO ISAF

Hamid and Ahmed Wali Karzai have often demonstrated erratic behavior, responding to pressure from ISAF with

actions mutually detrimental to both their interests and those of the coalition. Hamid Karzai’s vocal accusation of

foreign responsibility for fraud in Afghanistan’s presidential election and rhetoric about joining the Taliban in

April 2010 are only the most recent examples of this behavior, and Ahmed Wali Karzai has made subtle threats tothe coalition in Kandahar as well.

In Hamid Karzai’s case, some suggest the president is breaking down under stress and isolation. There may be an

element of this, and it is possible that Hamid Karzai’s actions owe something to the manipulation and influence of his

inner circle. But ISAF must not discount the political savvy of either Karzai. Their actions and statements may be part

of a classic game theory “game of chicken,” meant to dissuade ISAF from using leverage against Afghan actors by

convincing the coalition that pressing too hard will have disastrous consequences.

There is an element of pushing boundaries in these actions. The Karzais are playing a dangerous game – Hamid

Karzai’s recent statements play into Taliban propaganda and legitimize the insurgency, for example – and the Karzais

must not be emboldened in using these tactics. Successful diplomacy skillfully balances the building of trust and

relationships with the effective application of leverage.

ISAF and coalition embassies must make it clear to the Karzai administration that they will not be intimidated from

using leverage, including financial resources to challenge the interests of key Afghan powerbrokers when those interests

undermine the development of enduring political stability in Afghanistan.

545



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am w kz’ m k mpy g g,

mp g g pp . i2007 U.s. ambr num ugg p g b mb pb p g

am w’ m ug .547 t p nmb 2009,

amb eby py m P kz m am w kzm k, g pg 2010,

y p u u b’ m.548 i p dmb 2009, P kz

u b bu p u m m am

w kz m p k p u.549 hmkz am

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m m p k’ gm

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REcOmmENdATIONS

w am w kz y k, umb pisaF mu gg m p u pm mp g u.t uy , b g,



The state organizations and local powerbrokers, which

Ahmed Wali Karzai uses tomaintain minimal, inadequatesecurity in Kandahar will not

disappear in Ahmed WaliKarzai’s absence.





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Unity o Eort

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w kz, gy by m -m g g upp. t Prt mu U.s. sp op F (soF) cia upp am w kz. am

w kz b mmy m . rgzg isaF, oeF, k Prt, mup mb

pg kbu m p, am w p mp y mp u b.

Uy mu b b p .Bu P, My i idlG b u g gm u k, g pmu p

kbu. c uy mu bm b rc su hqu, k Prt, Us natomb, coMisaF, cstc-a, mu ppy pu g b m k. Ju am w kz up idlG kbu ppm, Prt k ub b guy

up mb nato p cstc-a m My i.

Better Intelligence

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Contracting

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bu puy u b.

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Disarmament o Private Security Forces

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dmm mu mu b u p um by p m mqu mgm uy .

Puy u g qu u pp u mg up puy p m. Up um, gg m

g anP g p. tMi mm anPu k, my k’p uy y Mi .igg u anP u

mpy p m uy p mm, uy um by p . i b m p p g umu u, m u m, bu u-ugy m.

rg m u mpby p pu p Mip m gg am w kz’

k u m p by . a py u y mpg y p py bug m bg by ym. cstc-a mu y p Mi m pu kz m gu uy b m g .

Building Ministerial Capacity, Command and Control

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p ag m.

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cpy bug

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.

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1F b g g m bug p ag kz m puug. t u gu pub 2009 ug m ym.ty u a Guzz’ Empires o Mud (2009 ), p y p gpuu by gm ag, dpMupyy’ “w Buu,” (spmb, 2009) M Bj’ “B dp d,P suug s sub appm” (My,2009). hb humy’ “t r- hm kz,”(Juy, 2010) p y P kz ’ by muy y uby b p py b, -uz bz -bug.

2 ag im Mgm o – c s o,2003-2004 Ppu s.

3 c s ogz, p://..g./mgpy/ppu.m, a ap 2, 2010.

4 a s l F ku, “s yu s, i w’ s a,” Foreign Policy, dmb, 2009.

5 tp c Bu r, Juy 7, 2010.

6 tb l o, “d am, k-y,k P,” nmb 2009, 6; r dM, “tg Fg B k cy,” Toronto Star , augu 14, 2009; as l, “s yu s, i w’ s a.”

7 t ppu gu sp B b ump ppu p 2003-2004. agim Mgm o – c s o, 2003-2004 Ppu s.

8 ag im Mgm o – c s o,2003-2004 Ppu s.

9 Gm w, rp m k’ Z d,” Juy 23, 2009. a s l, “F m cy,”F cub, p ob 8, 2008, p://ub.m/bg//2008/10/-m--y.m ( nmb 11,2009).

10 ag im Mgm o – c so, 2003-2004 Ppu s.

11 tm MG, “ag, kz’ B cmpk P,” Time Magazine, M 19, 2010.

12 o ry, Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, (cmbg: cmbgUy P, 1990), pg 25-33; B rub, The Fragmentation o Aghanistan, (Y Uy P, 2002), pg. 22-44.

13 o ry, 25-33; B rub, 22-44.

14 o ry, 25-33; B rub, 22-44.

15 o ry, 25-33; B rub, 22-44.

16 o ry, 25-33; B rub, 22-44.

17 o ry, 25-33; B rub, 22-44.

18 o ry, 10-29, B rub, 45-80.

19 t, Aghanistan: A Military History rom Alexander the Great to the War Againstthe Taliban, 114-117.

20 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan, 509-529.



23 a Guzz n U, “t i cy: kbu sgm’ cmp c k, 2001-2006,” Central Asian Survey, v. 25, i. 2 (Ju 2007), pp. 167-184.

24 o ry, 10-29, B rub, 45-80.

25 a Guzz n U, “t i cy”

26 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan, 509-577.

27 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgus Pgm cuu c su, “Po,” u “k P,” p://.p.u/Pgm//k.m ( 11 nmb 2009).

28 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; a s l, “F m cy,” F cub, p ob 8,2008, p://ub.m/bg//2008/10/-m--y.m ( nmb 11, 2009).

29 Guzz U.

30 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgus Pgm cuu c su, “Po.”

31 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgu

s Pgm cuu c su, “Po.”

32 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgu

s Pgm cuu c su, “Po.”

33 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgus Pgm cuu c su, “Po.” Guzz U, “t i cy,”

34 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; n Pgus Pgm cuu c su, “Po.”

35 cy, The Punishment o Virtue; 33, B r. rub, The Fragmentationo Aghanistan: State Formation and Collapse o the International System, 2 .(n h, cu: Y Uy P, 2002), pp. 158-159.

36 rub, The Fragmentation o Aghanistan, 158-159; am, ., Kandahar

and South-Central Aghanistan, 16-24.37 tb l o, “t Y l, a s-P

am Uuzg P,” spmb 18, 2009

38 Guzz U, 169-170; Mum hy k, Aghanistanand Its Inhabitants, . Jp Py (l, P: sg--MPub, 1999); am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan,142-145; n Pgu s Pgm cuu

c su, “P o.”

39 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan, 142-145; n

notes




Pgu s Pgm cuu c su,“P o.”

40 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan, 142-145; nPgu s Pgm cuu c su,“P o.”

41 c Jg, “Up m k: a cy c imp nato,” nmb 1, 2008, t cuu c r, v. 2, n. 4 (sp e), nPgu s, p://.p.u/pgm//

wbJu/a.p?aid=21&iuid=19 (11 nmb 2009); am r, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oiland Fundamentalism in Central Asia (n h, cu: hUy P, 2001), pp. 222-225.

42 a rub ty M, “tb w’ G Upk, o sy,” Los Angeles Times, nmb 22, 2001.

43 am, ., Kandahar and South-CentralAghanistan, 142-145; nPgu s Pgm cuu c su,“P o.”

44 a puy g mp ym, Mu om’ bgu, my y m tb Mu Z, abu sm Z,“My l tb,” e. a s v l F ku (n Y: cumb Uy P, 2010), 1-11.s am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; nPgu s Pgm cuu c su,“P o.”

45 r, Taliban, 23-24; Jg, “Up m k.”

46 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan, 509-530; Jg, “Up m k.”

47 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; nPgu s Pgm cuu c su,“P o.”

48 Jg, “Up m k.”

49 M B M s, Aghanistan, Arms and Conict: Armed Groups, Disarmament and Security in a Post-War Society (n Y:rug, 2008), pp. 236-243. c Jg, “Upm k: a cy c imp nato,”nmb 1, 2008, t cuu c r, v. 2, n.4 (sp e), n Pgu s.

50 am, ., Kandahar and South-Central Aghanistan; o ry ,Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, 2 . (n Y: cmbgUy P, 1990), pp. 50-53.

51 Jg, “Up m k”; B s, 225-243; cy, The Punishment o Virtue.

52 ry, Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, 117. Guzz U.167-173.

53 Guzz U. 169-173

54 ry, Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, 117-140.

55 ry, Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, 41; Guzz U, 170.

56 tb l o, “d am, k-y,k P,” nmb 2009, 9. Guzz U,170-171.



59 tb l o, “d am, k-y,k P,” nmb 2009, 9.


61 tb l o, “d am, k-y,k P,” nmb 2009, 9, 12. Guzz U,170-171.

62 Guzz U, 170-171.

63 r, Taliban, 17-23; tb l o, “d am,k-y, k P,” nmb 2009, 9.

64 r, Taliban, 17-23; Guzz U, 168-173.

65 Guzz U

66 r, Taliban, 25.

67 r, Taliban, 25-30; ay d, “h tb Bm My F,” Fundamentalism Reborn? Aghanistan and the Taliban, .

wm My (l: hu & cmpy, 2001), pp. 43-50.

68 r, Taliban, 29-30.

69 r, Taliban, 95-105.

70 r, Taliban, 95-104, 220-225.

71 r, Taliban, 98-99, 220-225.

72 cy, The Punishment o Virtue

73 r, Taliban, 103; B s, Aghanistan, Arms and Conict,235.

74 cy, The Punishment o Virtue

75 F c, “t Fmy: F ag l, amsupp d k,” New York Times, dmb 17, 2001.

76 tm MG, “kz’ B cmp k P,” TimeMagazine, M 19, 2010. (ag u m y m am w kz’ gug m u

p Time Magazine)

77 G P, “kz Fmy s,” t dy B,spmb 29, 2009

78 G P, “kz Fmy s,” t dy B,spmb 29, 2009

79 Pu MGug, “o wy lg B v v,” SydneyMorning Herald , spmb 10, 2005; abu w w czG, “e kz d t Bu,” The New York Times,M 13, 2009; G P, “kz Fmy s,” t dy B, spmb 29, 2009, G P, “t kz BFg B,” ob 28, 2009: ky G, “ag P’

notes




B lgg r,” a P, nmb 18, 2009:

G P, “t kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B,

dmb 21, 2009.

80 abu w w cz G, “e kz d

t Bu,” The New York Times, M 13, 2009; G P,“kz Fmy s,” t dy B, spmb 29, 2009,

G P, “t kz B Fg B,” ob 28,

2009: ky G, “ag P’ B lgg

r,” a P, nmb 18, 2009: G P, “t

kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B, dmb 21, 2009.

81 F c, “t Fmy: F ag l, am

supp d k,” New York Times, dmb 17, 2001:

J B, “t n, t w: h t w’ o m u

,” The Guardian, M 23, 2009. ezb rub, “kz

h lby,” t New York Times Magazine, augu 9, 2009.

G P, “kz Fmy s,” t dy B, spmb

29, 2009, G P, “t kz B Fg B,”

ob 28, 2009: ky G, “ag P’ B lgg r,” a P, nmb 18, 2009: G

P, “t kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B, dmb

21, 2009.

82 J B, “t n, t w: h t w’ o m

u ,” The Guardian, M 23, 2009. ezb rub,

“kz h lby,” t New York Times Magazine, augu 9, 2009


supp d k,” New York Times, dmb 17, 2001:

J B, “t n, t w: h t w’ o m u

,” The Guardian, M 23, 2009. ezb rub, “kz

h lby,” t New York Times Magazine, augu 9, 2009.

G P, “kz Fmy s,” t dy B, spmb29, 2009, G P, “t kz B Fg B,”

ob 28, 2009: ky G, “ag P’ B

lgg r,” a P, nmb 18, 2009: G

P, “t kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B, dmb

21, 2009.

84 n M, Karzai, 23-36

85 "P hm kz”. t emby ag,

wg dc. <p://.mbyg.g/p.

m>

86o ry, Islam and Resistance in Aghanistan, 117. dbb h, “U.s.

kz t g by p,” Usa ty, dmb 17, 2001.

87 Mg s, “e F ag F hm

cg’ e M,” Chicago Tribune, Juy 30, 1986.

88 n, mp, Mmu kz’ G

P dy B. G P, “kz Fmy s,”

t dy B, spmb 29, 2009, G P, “t kz

B Fg B,” ob 28, 2009: G P, “t

kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B, dmb 21, 2009.

89 n M, Karzai, 45-74

90 n M, Karzai, 48-56

91 Guzz U, “t i cy”

92 n M, Karzai, 85-93

93 “rug cu sugg e ag Fgg,” aP-ru,

My 1, 1992. M Fm, “kbu l s r cy,”

l ag tm, My 1, 1992. n M, Karzai, 85-93

94 s c, Ghost Wars, 286

95 rmu Yuuz, “tu dp rug F

kbu B Z ag-F,”

a P, Juy 10, 1994.

96 s c, Ghost Wars, 287, n M, Karzai, 101-103

97 am r, “h My F u Mu,” dmb

8, 2001.

98 am r, “h My F u Mu,”

dmb 8, 2001. n M, Karzai, 97-112

99 J l a, “a ru: t cy k,

P-tb, u m tb y

y m b,” The New Yorker , Juy 28, 2002.

100 J l a, “a ru: t cy k,

P-tb, u m tb y

y m b,” The New Yorker , Juy 28, 2002. c

hy, “Fm ey, P t Gu ag’ l,

t Pm,” t a P, M 2, 2002.

101 s cy, e-m au, Juy 28, 2010. n M,

Karzai, 46

102 am r, “d c,” 23. n M, Karzai, 49

103 am r, “h my F ou Mu,” t

dy tgp, dmb 8, 2001. ag F P, “Fm

ag kg’ ay a P,” Juy 15, 1999: s

c, Ghost Wars, 461-62.


dy tgp, dmb 8, 2001.


dy tgp, dmb 8, 2001: J w, “lgg l cuy,” t Bm su, ob 4, 2001.


dy tgp, dmb 8, 2001

107 s c, Ghost Wars, 518-522.

108 s c, Ghost Wars, 518-522.

109 s c, Ghost Wars, 572-573.

110 s c, Ghost Wars, 572-573.

notes




notes132 Guzz U, “t i cy.”

133 Guzz U, “t i cy.”

134 Guzz U, “t i cy,” 172-176.

135 Guzz U, “t i cy,” 176-177.

136 Guzz U, “t i cy.” i c

Gup, Disarmament and Reintegration, icG a rp n. 65 (kbu/

Bu: spmb 30, 2003), p. 19-22.

137 Guzz U, “t i cy,” 176-177.

138 Guzz U, “t i cy.” i c

Gup, Disarmament and Reintegration, icG a rp n. 65 (kbu/

Bu: spmb 30, 2003), p. 19-22.

139 P M, “Gu ag G h P B,” New York Times

Magazine, Juy 6, 2002; Guzz U, 172-176.

140 i c Gup, Disarmament and Reintegration, icG a

rp n. 65 (kbu/Bu: spmb 30, 2003), p. 19-22.

141 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue. i c Gup,

Disarmament and Reintegration, icG a rp n. 65 (kbu/Bu:

spmb 30, 2003), p. 19-22.

142 i c Gup, Disarmament and Reintegration, icG a

rp n. 65 (kbu/Bu: spmb 30, 2003), p. 19-22.

ag F P, “t a P Bmb a agy

su ag,” ag F P, M 12, 2003.

143 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 174-75, Guzz U,

“t i cy”

144 a Guzz, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop, The Neo-Taliban

Insurgency in Aghanistan, (n Y: cumb Uy P, 2008)

15-65

145 rm r, “i l F,” Time Magazine, spmb

16, 2002.

146rm r, “i l F,” Time Magazine, spmb

16, 2002.

147 ky G, “tb rg suu ag,”

a P o, ap 7, 2003.

148 Guzz U, 177-179; tu- ag, “B agl c Mg k Mup cu – Pp,”

BBc Mg su a – P, Juy 20, 2003.

149 Jy ty, “ag cmpg Bg,” LA Times, augu 1,

2002. s cy, -m u, dmb 20, 2009,

dmb 21, 2009, Juy 28, 2010. sp Gm,

“kz hp vy, eu ab M Fmu s,”

t a P, ob 5, 2004.

150 s cy, -m u, Juy 28, 2010.

111 s c, Ghost Wars, 518-522, 572-573. am r, Decent into

Chaos, 19.

112 am r, Decent into Chaos, 23.

113 am r, Decent into Chaos, 95-96. cy, The Punishment o

Virtue, 28-84.

114 n M, Karzai, 148-160: am r, Decent into Chaos: The

United States and the Failure o Nation Building in Pakistan, Aghanistan, and Central

Asia (n Y: vg, 2008), pp. 84-86; cy, The Punishment o

Virtue, 28-84.

115 cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 28-84: n M, Karzai, 148-160:

P M, “Gu ag G h P B ,” The New York Times

Magazine, Juy 6, 2002.

116 cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 28-84: P M, “Gu ag G

h P B ,” The New York Times Magazine, Juy 6, 2002.

117cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 28-84

118 am r, Decent into Chaos, 95-96.

119 k w, “M B,” U.s. n w

rp, Fbuy 11, 2002. s cy, The Punishment o Virtue.

120 cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 178, 271-272.

121 ezb rub, “kz h lby,” t New York Times

Magazine, augu 9, 2009;

F c, “t Fmy: F ag l, am supp

d s,” dmb 17, 2001.

122 n M, Karzai, 21-43.

123n M, Karzai, 59-112.

124 s c, G w, 572; F c, “t Fmy: F

ag l, am supp d s,” dmb

17, 2001; s cy, The Punishment o Virtue; Jm r, “a

kz Fg Bu emp,” New York Times, M 5, 2009.


supp d s,” dmb 17, 2001. s cy,

The Punishment o Virtue, 225-230. kzm, k, “ag:

P-tb G, suy, U.s. Py,” cg

r s, nmb 1, 2009.

126 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue

127 ky G, “ag P’ B lgg r,”

t a P, nmb 18, 2009.

128 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue

129 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 160-170, 178-185, 272-274.

130 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 272-274.

131 Guzz U, “t i cy, 172-176.




notes151 c G, “kz ou cmpgg vg ag

tb,” The New York Times, ap 26, 2004.

152 s Bu, “w P h ag v,” Christian Science

Monitor , ob 6, 2004.

153 c hy, “n B, Um, py, bu

ag my g ,” a P, M 19,

2002.

154 tu- ag, “B ag l c Mg

k Mup cu,” BBc Mg su a, Juy

20, 2003.

155 ag t, “l Mmb ag

cu ly Jg,” BBc summy w B,

dmb 20, 2003.

156 Guzz U, 177-179.

157 Guzz U, 177-179. tb l o, “d

am, k-y, k P,” nmb 2009,

36-37, 44.

158 Guzz U, 177-179.

159 Guzz U, 177-179. tb l o, “d

am, k-y, k P,” nmb 2009,

36-37, 44.

160 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue, 178-185, 272-274. d

F, M Mzz, Jm r, “B cia l

s B P by c.i.a.,” New York Times, ob 27, 2009.

161

ag t, “ag P ruf FuP G,” BBc Mg su a—P, BBc

w Mg, Ju 23, 2005.

162 “n k g ug b uy,” Pajhwok Aghan

News, Juy 4, 2005.

163 Pu kg, “o kp abu cg ag ay s,”

Globe and Mail (c), Fbuy 1, 2008.

164 km B, “h P t sp wg w,” Chicago

Tribune, ob 22, 2008.

165 F F w n dg, “ag lg,

P e,” spmb 22, 2005.

166 a w, A House Divided? Analyzing the 2005 Aghan Elections,

(kbu: ag r eu U, dmb

2005), pp. 21-23; n Pgu s Pgm cuu

c su, “P o.”

167 a w, A House Divided? Analysing the 2005 Aghan Elections,

21-23.

168 Guzz U, 176-179; a w, A House Divided?

Analysing the 2005 Aghan Elections, 23-24.

169 Guzz U, 176-179.

170 BBc Mg i rp, “P s

ag npp 27 n 05,” Cheragh, nmb 27, 2005;

t “kz F dup F,” Arman-e Mali,

My 5, 2009, BBc Mg su a—P, “M ag

opp Gup sy s Gg sg,” BBc w

Mg, My 7, 2009; a s l, “k

e r.” Guzz U; a w, A House

Divided? Analysing the 2005 Aghan Elections, 23-24.

171 Pj ag n, “M M t P hia,

tb,” Juy 31, 2010; n Pgu s, “P

o.”

172 a w, A House Divided? Analysing the 2005 Aghan Elections,

23-24.

173 Guzz U, 176-179.

174 w Jg P cu e, ag 2005

e, k P cu ru, p://8680609.

u106..m/gc.p?eid=2&p=2&P

id=28.

175 w Jg P cu e, ag 2005

e, k P cu ru, p://8680609.

u106..m/gc.p?eid=2&p=2&P

id=28.

176 Guzz U, 176-179.

177 Guzz U, 176-179.

178 P o’n, “c kz B rgu c c dpm,” c n s, nmb 5, 2009.

179 d F, M Mzz, Jm r, “B

ag b p by c.i.a.,” New York Times, 10.27.2009.

J Mp, “cia’ M k G

B?” c P, nmb 1, 2009. P o’n,

“c kz B rgu c c

dpm,” c n s, nmb 5, 2009; P

o’n, “kz’ B g- m,” c n s,

dmb 7, 2009.

180 tm B, ‘l u d tb:’ -,” c

n s, Ju 16, 2007.

181 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 12, 44-45.

182 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 44-45.

183 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 8-9.

184 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 44-45.




notes185 Gm sm, “tb t h ky r,” The Globe and

Mail, dmb 15, 2008.

186 Gm sm, “tb amy dg tb ru,” The

Globe and Mail, M 25, 2008; Jm r, “rp kz’

b ag h t,” The New York Times, ob 5,

2008.

187 icG a rp n. 65, pp. 19-23.

188 icG a rp n. 65, pp. 19-22.

189 s cy, -m u, dmb 20, 2009.

190 s cy, “s Gm,” 3.15.2008: scy.

191 Gm sm, kz u F cg Gu,”

Gb M, 11.20.2007

192 B hu, “Yu ag d l Ug -

-jb g.” c, 1.28.2008

193 c P, Gum y ag a,” 6.7.2008,

s cy, “s Gm,” 3.15.2008: scy.

194 tm s d r, “tb Fg M i n

k F F tm s 2001,” New York Times, ob 31,

2007; s cy, “a Mu d, w cm kg”;

Gm sm, “tb i ky d n k,” Globe

and Mail, nmb 1, 2007.

195 F ab, “Bmb tg P cu i

ag”; Pj ag n, “tb e amg

Fu k i k.” ky cym, “P m,bu, mp y,” cgy h, 11.24.2008 ;

n k, “11 ag P, 2 nato s k i su

ag,” a P wm, ap 14, 2008. a

M, “Pg ag: t F M t My B

o M F a Gug, Up sugg,” Weekly Standard , v. 14,

i. 14, dmb 21, 2008.

196 c Fbg, The Taliban’s Campaign or Kandahar , iu

suy w, nmb 2009, 39-42


suy w, nmb 2009, 39-42.


suy w, nmb 2009, 39-42.

199 J sm v ddm, “t Pub c

P suy ag,” c i

cp, n Y Uy, spmb 2009.


P suy ag,” c i

cp, n Y Uy, spmb 2009. M

B M s, Aghanistan, Arms and Conict


ag b p by c.i.a.,” New York Times,

10.27.2009.

202 M B M s, Aghanistan, Arms, and Conict,

229.


228-232. 241-42.


228-232. 241-42. s cy, The Punishment o Virtue.

205 M B M s, Aghanistan, Arms, andConicte,

228-232. 241-42.


228-229. 236-242.

207 d F, “dp dub, kz B r

P,” New York Times, M 30, 2010.

208 Jm r, “a kz Fg ag Bu

emp,” t New York Times, M 5, 2009. tm Bm,

“kz’ B t cup ag l d,” n

Pub r, Fbuy 1, 2010. tm MG, “kz’ B

cmp k P,” Time Magazine, M 19, 2010.

d F, “dp dub, kz B r P,”

New York Times, M 30, 2010.

209 c Jg, “Up m k: a cy c

imp nato,” nmb 11, 2008.

210 ky G, “ag P’ B lgg

r,” t a P, nmb 18, 2009; Jm r,“ag kg B kz Fmy Fu,” New York Times,

dmb 19, 2009; s cy, e-m u,

dmb 21, 2009; tp c cy

a, Fbuy 10, 2010; tm Bm, “kz’ B

t cup ag l d,” n Pub r,

Fbuy 1, 2010. tm MG, “kz’ B cmp

k P,” Time Magazine, M 19, 2010. d F,

“dp dub, kz B r P,” New York Times,

M 30, 2010.

211 s cy, e-m u, dmb 21, 2009;

tp c cy a, Fbuy 10, 2010;

tm Bm, “kz’ B t cup ag l

d,” n Pub r, Fbuy 1, 2010. tm MG,“kz’ B cmp k P,” Time Magazine,

M 19, 2010. d F, “dp dub, kz B

r P,” New York Times, M 30, 2010.

212 am w kz my p m

k, g p “i y

y my m my my y b , i

m g yu y p .” t ym u

ag my m m

p my ug ym, ug hawala

Gu em, u kz’




notes m y y . G P,

“kz Fmy s,” spmb 27, 2009. G P,

s t, 134-231; s cy, e-m u,

dmb 21, 2009.

213 am r, “h Us Fu tb,” The Nation,nmb 30, 2009; Jm r, “ag kg B kz

Fmy Fu,” New York Times, dmb 19, 2009.

214 am r, “h Us Fu tb,” The Nation,

nmb 30, 2009. Jm r, “ag kg B kz

Fmy Fu,” New York Times, dmb 19, 2009.

215 a Gup i, abu asG: p://.g./bu.

p. a dmb 12, 2009.

216 a Gup i, abu asG: p://.g./bu.

p. a dmb 12, 2009. am r, “h Us

Fu tb,” The Nation, nmb 30, 2009. G P,

“ag: U.s., nato y w uy,”ip s, ob 30, 2009.

217 a Gup i: cp G v,

p://g.//aGi%20cp_G__v%20

-%20d%201%20-%2010%20augu%202009.p. a

Juy 9, 2010; a cu lg: p://../

bu.p


nmb 30, 2009.


nmb 30, 2009.

220 am r, “h Us Fu tb,” The Nation,nmb 30, 2009.


P suy ag,” n Y Uy c

i cp, spmb, 2009, 4-5.

222 Jm r, “ag kg B kz Fmy Fu,” The New

York Times, dmb 19, 2009

223 Jm r, “ag kg B kz Fmy Fu,”

New York Times, dmb 19, 2009

224 G P, “t kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B,

dmb 21, 2009


New York Times, dmb 19, 2009


nmb 30, 2009:

a hgg, “kbu B’ s F F

cy cpm ag,” Washington Post, Fbuy 22,

2010; k kzm, “ag: P, e,

Gm Pm,” cg r s,

nmb 1, 2009.


New York Times, dmb 19, 2009. a hgg, “kbu

B’ s F F cy cpm ag,”

Washington Post, Fbuy 22, 2010. am r, “h Us Fu tb,” The Nation, nmb 30, 2009.

228 Mmu am w kz m p

g ju isaF , ggy g

y. ty pu g

ju m pp . Mmu,

mp, New York Times’ Jm r by gug

r nYt b -p g

m – gum pp b

am pub. am w kz m mm

py g b m ju.

G P, “t kz-New York Times Fu,” t dy B,

dmb 21, 2009; tm l, “kz’ B t

Mcy w rpg ag dug sy,” Mcy, My 10, 2009.

229 s cy, e-m u, dmb 20, 2009.

230 d F, “dp dub, kz B r P,”


231 B Fm, “kz my’ ug ugy, y

py p,” The Daily Telegraph, augu 8, 2009, Q hbb

amu s, “ag P’ B d Bu

su Bu Fmy t, r F eup, 3.12.2009. Jm

r, “a kz Fg ag Bu emp,” The New

York Times, M 5, 2009. d F, M Mzz, Jm

r, “B ag b p by c.i.a.,” The New

York Times, ob 27, 2009; tm Bm, “kz’ B t

cup ag l d,” n Pub r, Fbuy

1, 2010. tm MG, “kz’ B cmp k

P,” Time Magazine, M 19, 2010. d F, “dp

dub, kz B r P,” The New York Times, M 30,

2010.

232 B am nm, “t g k

Mupy u,” ap 18, 2009. tm Bm, “kz’

B t cup ag l d,” n Pub r,

Fbuy 1, 2010.

233 tm Bm, “kz’ B t cup ag l

d,” n Pub r, Fbuy 1, 2010.


d,” n Pub r, Fbuy 1, 2010.


d,” n Pub r, Fbuy 1, 2010; d F,

“dp dub, kz B r P,” New York Times, M

30, 2010.

236 Jm r, “a kz Fg ag Bu emp,”

t New York Times, M 5, 2009; tm Bm, “kz’ B




notest cup ag l d,” n Pub r,

Fbuy 1, 2010.


t New York Times, M 5, 2009


t New York Times, M 5, 2009; tm Bm, “kz’ B

t cup ag l d,” n Pub r,

Fbuy 1, 2010.

239 tm B, “t k k,” o cz,

nmb 1, 2008.


t New York Times, M 5, 2009; Jm Pm, “F s: luuy

v By, P tb d t, The Guardian,

spmb 12, 2008. Mmu kz, “rp a

by Jm r,” Bakhtar Weekly, < p://.gmb-./

/_bu/2009/M/28/.pp.> a M 8,2010.

241 s, mp, Jm r, “a kz Fg ag

Bu emp,” t New York Times, M 5, 2009.


t New York Times, M 5, 2009. a spu B Fm,

“tub kz c; a e lm, c

G bu iu ag P’ Fmy,” t

dy tgp, augu 8, 2009.

243 a hgg, “kbu B’ s F F cy

cpm ag,” Washington Post, Fbuy 22, 2010.

244 “abu aic,” ag im cmpy wb: p://.

g.m/abu%20aic.m, Fb 17, 2010.

245 a spu B Fm, “tub kz c;

a e lm, c G bu iu

ag P’ Fmy,” t dy tgp, augu 8, 2009:

Jm r, “a kz Fg ag Bu emp,” t



t New York Times, M 5, 2009: hb humy, “t r-

hm kz,” Institute or the Study o War , Juy, 2010.

247 a hgg, “kbu B’ s F F cy

cpm ag,” Washington Post, Fbuy 22, 2010.

248 hb humy, “t r- hm kz,” iu

suy w, Juy, 2010, 35.


imp nato,” t cuu c r,

nmb 1, 2008.

250 M B M s, Aghanistan, Arms and Conict,

229-231. s cy, Pum vu, 166-67, c

Jg, “Up m k: a cy c imp

nato, t cuu c r, 11.1.2008. G

P, “ag: U.s., nato y w

uy,” ip s, ob 30, 2009.“ tb l

o, d am, k cy, k P,”

nmb 2009, pg 46. c G, “k, B

e B U.s. o,” M 26, 2010.

251 n Pgu s Pgm cuu c

su, “P o;” tb l o, d

am, k cy, k P,” nmb 2009,

pg 46.

252 s My, Conronting the Chaos, 148-50; a My

M B, “o ’ ag c,” The Ottawa

Citizen, nmb 19, 2007; ag F P, “t

p bmb gy u ag,” M 12, 2003;


nato”; s My, Conronting the Chaos, 148-49.

253 s cy, -m u, dmb 20, 2009.

254 s cy, e-m au, dmb 20, 2009.

255 B s, 230.


imp nato, t cuu c r,

11.1.2008.


nmb 30, 2009; r Mg, “l w M sy,”

n Pub r, dmb 24, 2009; d F, “dp

dub, kz B r P,” New York Times, M 30,

2010.

258 r opp, Mub hbb, ruu kp,

“ag uy gu bm gu b p

,” The New York Times, Ju 30, 2009. cg P, “c

p gum g p ,” c

n s, 20 Ju, 2009. “ag y Us gu

p ,” a P wm, Ju 29, 2009



260 r opp, Mub hbb, ruu kp,

“ag uy gu bm gu b p

,” The New York Times, Ju 30, 2009. cg P, “c

p gum g p ,” cn s, 20 Ju, 2009. “ag y Us gu

p ,” a P wm, Ju 29, 2009


ag l s b by c.i.a.,” New York Times, ob 27,

2009; n k, “kz: ag Gu empy by Us k

P,” a P o, Ju 29, 2009; B am

nm, “ig M ib, sy am,” Pj ag

n, Ju 30, 2009.

262 Guzz U.




notes263 M c, “t Buz,” aBc n B, Ju 16,

2009. p://.b..u/g//2009/2600003.

m, nmb 12, 2009.

264 Jm sy, “Fm g kz ag

p,” t ip, M 9, 2009. ay B, “w

r’ w, kz’ P r-e e,” Time Magazine,

My 6, 2009.

265 ay B, “w r’ w, kz’ P r-

e e,” Time Magazine, My 6, 2009. rm Fz

n k, “ag P’ b u y mbu,”

a P, My 18, 2009

266 Pu MGug, “kz F d dy,” syy

Mg h, augu 18, 2009.

267 n ag tv, “v-p u ag

g l c,” BBc Mg su a –

P, Juy 10, 2010.

268 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

269 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

270 dp Mupyy, “w Buu, ag

ep,” cg em i P, augu,

2009.

271 G P, Seeds o Terror , 198. tb l o, “d

am, k-y, k P,” nmb 2009,

55-56.

272 r Mu sm Yuz, “a h ty,”

n, Juy 9, 2006: B hu, “a h

Gu ip r,” c n s,

Fbuy 25, 2008.

273 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

274 p://.m.m/g_/b_u_/468.

m: ag’ uy,

gg P ug eU , ap, 2001

275 c ku, “P Pug ag’ Pu B,” l ag

tm, dmb 9, 2002:

276 J B, U.s. Pu M a-tb M,” The

Guardian, nmb 23, 2009.277 c lmb, “tb c s J ag cb,”

t tm, My 20, 2004: P Gp, “s ag t

cu rp r,” c n s, ob 7, 2008.

278 d w, “t o i P ag B

t,” t B Gb, Juy 2, 2006; “U.s. rp Jm

kb h hg ag dug e rbug

Pgm – tmy J Gg,” P tp w,

spmb 13, 2006.

279 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

280 Pj ag n, “n P suy appm

by P kz,” M 16, 2005; tp du

Mu a, dmb 22, 2009. Pj ag n,

“k k w Byg e,” augu 16, 2009.

281 ezb rub, “kz h lby,” New York Times Magazine,

augu 9, 2009.

282 n, mp, a nz

u b M d, hj w, by

tb 2005, uggg pu u my

m m g. Gm sm, kz u

F cg Gu,” Gb M, 11.20.2007; azz

Z, “tb e Gu d k,” Pj ag

n, Ju 16, 2005.

283 c G, “U c dub ag v,” t

i h tbu, augu 5, 2009; tb lo, “d am, k-y, k P,”

nmb 2009, 35.

284 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009.

285 ry n emby kbu, “c ay, Uuzg

P,” 10.19.2006.

286 Jmy ky, “lg r t k,” The Australian,

4.28.2009. M d Jmy ky, “adF py

’ u uppy ,” The Australian, 4.28.2009;

cp ru, “t w hgy,” v Mgz,

nmb, 2009; tb l o, “t Y l: a s-P am Uuzg P m 2006

2009,” spmb 18, 2009.


4.28.2009. M d Jmy ky, “adF py

’ u uppy ,” The Australian, 4.28.2009;

cp ru, “t w hgy,” v Mgz,

nmb, 2009.


4.28.2009.


4.28.2009.

290 Mu a, “t M sp B,” Harper’s Magazine,

dmb 2009


dmb 2009


dmb 2009


dmb 2009




notes294 ag F P – “ag P cmm J 40

h,” nmb 25, 2009.

295 ag F P, 6.11.2008: dea P r, 6.13.2008

296

Mu a, “t M sp B,” Harper’s Magazine,dmb 2009

297 dp B, “c rzzq: ‘G’ ag

B,” ag F P, ob 13, 2009. Mu a,

“t M sp B,” Harper’s Magazine, dmb 2009

298 dp B, “c rzzq: ‘G’ ag

B,” ag F P, ob 13, 2009. Mu a,

“t M sp B,” Harper’s Magazine, dmb 2009


dmb 2009. B rgg, “tb su Bmb tg

s ag P c,” spmb 7, 2008. ab J

rz, Pj, 28 spmb 2008, F ab, “nato:

10 ug ag,” a P wm,

23 M 2009, n k, “su bmb ag u

4 p,” a P wm, 14 My 2009; am s,

“ag p: 11 ug u,” t a P,

14 My 2009; “t sp B u b,” Pj

ag n, 14 My 2009., Gm sm, “kz U F

cg Gu,” Gb M, nmb 20, 2007.

300 Guzz U; Mu a, “t M sp

B,” Harper’s Magazine, dmb 2009

301 au k p rz p ,

2006, u g mu 17

mmb suz nz b u. r

syz, “ag: rp cm ‘w t’ U hB-Fu kg,” r F eup/r lby, M 31,

2006. “G o Pb k kg,” Pj

ag n, M 22, 2006. Mu a, “t M

sp B,” Harper’s Magazine, dmb 2009


dmb 2009


dmb 2009


dmb 2009.

305 tp c cy a, Fbuy 10, 2010.

306 J B d n, “cu hg ag

e,” 8.28.2009

307 Guzz, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop, 56.

308 Gm sm, “ipg t tump tb

sm,” Globe and Mail, 9.23.2006, Guzz, k, k

lpp, 56.

309 B n, “F F?” t ag, (Mbu,

au) Juy 13, 2009.

310 B n, “F F?” t ag, (Mbu,

au) Juy 13, 2009. M F, “tb l’ t

du wg c, ,” c n s, Juy 25, 2009.


nmb 11, 2009.


nmb 11, 2009.


nmb 11, 2009.

314 t cu ag, 2004.

315 a Guzz, “s op ssr ag,”

tm d (.) Local Ownership and Security Sector Reorm, dcaF/l vg, Zu/B, 2008; M Bj, “B

dp d,” ag r eu U,

My, 2009; tp i Un o kbu. Juy

20, 2010.

316 am r, Descent into Chaos, 125-144.

317 am r, Descent into Chaos, 125-144; Guzz, emp

Mu, 289.

318 Guzz, emp Mu, 289

319 J l a, “t M P,” n Y, Ju 6,

2005. Guzz, emp Mu, 289-293.

320 J l a, “t M P,” n Y, Ju

6, 2005; am r, Descent into Chaos, 171-218; d M,

“ag F Fg Py,” ny, dmb 23, 2003.

321 am r, Descent into Chaos, 171-218

322 Guzz, emp Mu, 289-293

323 d M, “ag F Fg Py,” ny,

dmb 23, 2003

324 d M, “ag F Fg Py,” ny,

dmb 23, 2003; am r, Descent into Chaos, 212-218

325 am r, Descent into Chaos, 212-218; t cu

ag, 2004.

326 t cu ag, 2004.

327 t cu ag, 2004.

328 i rpub iu ag Pmy

P cu e – e ob M F

rp, spmb 18, 2005; a w, “a hu d:

ayzg 2005 ag e,” ag r




noteseu U, dmb, 2005.

329 i rpub iu ag Pmy

P cu e – e ob M F

rp, spmb 18, 2005; a w, “a hu d:

ayzg 2005 ag e,” ag r

eu U, dmb, 2005.

330 a Guzz, “s op ssr ag”;

M Bj, “B dp d,” ag

r eu U, My, 2009; hb humy, “t

r- hm kz,” iu suy w, Juy

2010. tp i Un o kbu. Juy 20,

2010.


suy w, Juy 2010.


tp i Un o kbu.


tp i Un o kbu; hb humy,

“t r- hm kz,” iu suy w,

Juy 2010.

334 M Bj, “B dp d,”

ag r eu U, My, 2009; hm n,

“sub s-Bug ag,” ag r

eu U, ap 2008.

335 M Bj, “B dp d,”

ag r eu U, My, 2009; hm n,


eu U, ap 2008.


suy w, Juy 2010.

M Bj, “B dp d,” ag

r eu U, My, 2009; hm n,


eu U, ap 2008.

337 M Bj, “B dp d: P

suug s sub appm,” ag

r eu U, My, 2009.

338 hb humy, “t r- hm kz,” Institute or the Study o War , Juy, 2010, pg 12.

339 M Bj, “B dp d: P

suug s sub appm,” ag

r eu U, My, 2009.

340 Pm cb J hm, “a sp r

ag cp,” Washington Post, My 30, 2009; J sz,

“o: 250 ag a a r; c cm

d 2 Us s,” t a P, Ju 7, 2006;

c G, “a r e, kbu’ r Bg P

Fg,” The New York Times, My 31, 2006.


augu 9, 2009.

342 ezb rub, “kz h lby,” New York Times Magazine, augu 9, 2009.


augu 9, 2009.


augu 9, 2009; d n, “kz Bm B tb

rug,” t suy tm, spmb 7, 2008.


augu 9, 2009.


augu 9, 2009; d n, “kz Bm B tb

rug,” t suy tm, spmb 7, 2008.

347 J l a, “t M P,” The New Yorker , Ju

6, 2005; ezb rub, “kz h lby,” New York Times

Magazine, augu 9, 2009; tp i Un o

kbu. Juy 20, 2010. J B, “t n, t w: h

w’ m u u” The Guardian, M 23, 2009.

348 J l a, “t M P,” The New Yorker , Ju

6, 2005

349ezb rub, “kz h lby,” New York Times Magazine,

augu 9, 2009.

350

d F, “l ag F hm h nM,” t New York Times, Fbuy 7, 2009; J B, “t n,

t w: h w’ m u u” The Guardian,

M 23, 2009; hb humy, “t r- hm

kz,” iu suy w, Juy, 2010, 18-19;

ezb rub, “kz h lby,” New York Times Magazine,

augu 9, 2009.


suy w, Juy, 2010, 18-19.

352 hm kz uy mb

m , u b m

pupp U s u u mg

ag p. “kz: J p u m e-U,” l M, spmb 7, 2009; Jm Gz r a

opp, J. “U.n. sy p: p kz,” New

York Times, dmb 17, 2009. hb humy, “t r-

hm kz,” iu suy w, Juy, 2010,

28-30.


suy w, Juy, 2010.


suy w, Juy, 2010.






notesThe Globe and Mail, dmb 4, 2008.

387 tm B, “k G Ug c

2011 ,” c, 9.30.2008, G Gy, suy

c c n k G,” Gb M,

8.31.2008. tb c, “k G s d,”

c P, 8.16.2008, tb c a.r. k “k

G Bg rp,” 8.15.2008: G Gy, “k

G’ sg ru ou,” Gb M, s du,

c, 8.24.2008: Gm sm, “k G

b ppg ,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 4, 2008. Gm

sm, “k G cm e,” The Globe and Mail,

dmb 5, 2008.

388 i c Ju, dmb 9, 2009.

389 tp c cy a, Fbuy 10, 2010.

390 Gm sm, “k G b ppg ,”

The Globe and Mail, dmb 4, 2008; n k, “G ky ag P s,” t a P, dmb 4,

2008. cBc n, “ny app k G F,”

dmb 4, 2008; Gm sm, “k G cm

e,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 5, 2008.

391 Gm sm, “k G b ppg ,”

The Globe and Mail, dmb 4, 2008. Gm sm, “k

G cm e,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 5, 2008.

392 Gm sm, ag-c p g

k,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 18, 2008, Gm sm,

n k g kz’ ,”The Globe and Mail,

dmb 19 2008; “ty w, P.d.,” <p://.m.

m/pp/-.p>

393 Gm sm, ag-c p g

k,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 18, 2008,; “ty w,

P.d.,” <p://.m.m/pp/-.p>

394 Gm sm, ag-c p g

k,” The Globe and Mail, dmb 18, 2008, Gm sm,

n k g kz’ ,”The Globe and Mail,

dmb 19 2008;

395 M F, “ag-c sgy am d

tb t by t,”c n s, 15 ap, 2009.

396 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

397 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

398 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

399 Puy g p b My hm

kz my p kz my 1990,

pub New York Times, u kz b,

abu a kz, Gum h hm.

New York Times: p://.ym.m/mgpg/2009/03/05/

/05z_ca2y.m,> M 2, 2010. J

Mp, “wp Fu Fu ag e;

rp,” ob 20, 2009; G k, “M s t

Pb by k My,” em Ju,

spmb 30, 2009. s cy, -m u, Juy

28, 2010.

400“s dy G sub-n l

ag,” t w B, Juy, 2007, 19.

401 “s dy G sub-n l

ag,” t w B, Juy, 2007, 19.

402 tm B, “ag Gm r l Pppy

cp,” c n s, Ju 24, 2007.

403 Ground Truth, 42-43.

404 Ground Truth, 50

405 Ground Truth, 42-56

406Ground Truth, 42-56

407 Ground Truth, 42-56

408 J amg, “d l Fg su v

su,”

409 rj c, “tp F n t ag,”

Washington Post, M 15, 2009.

410 s d ny, “tgg-hppy ag c Um

U.s. e,” d n, dmb 7, 2009. Ju P, “i

su ag, m g g ,” Washington

Post, Fbuy 9, 2010.

411 n k, “su Bmb k ag d c 3

; 5 c gg,” a P, augu 17,

2007.

412 i c Ju, dmb 9, 2009.

413 c P, “l My iug k’ Z

d, a l sy,” c P, dmb 11, 2009.

414 J c, “t My l l l Pj,”

em Ju, augu 10, 2009. “ry cm, s

smm w b k,” c n s, ap,

27, 2008.

415 i c Ju, dmb 9, 2009; J c, “t My l l l Pj,”

em Ju, augu 10, 2009.

416 J c, “t My l l l Pj,”

em Ju, augu 10, 2009.


su,” The Globe and Mail, Juy 15, 2009.

418 B am nm, “d P c w sup

tb l h,” Pj ag n, my 19, 2008.




notes419 n a, “ag vg sugg tb’ ob,”

du-P agu, M 11, 2008. ag im P

n agy, “d c k M B ag su,”

BBc Mg su a-P, augu 26, 2009.


su,” The Globe and Mail, Juy 15, 2009.

421 icG a rp n. 65, pp. 19-23.

422 Guzz, 176.

423 “ag tp P k kbu app dpuy P

c,” ag F P, My 27, 2003.

424 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue.

425 ag P s t M,” su P agy, Juy

20, 2004.

426 “h tm ag’ dug smugg,” ag F

P, ap 11, 2005. cp vg, “P c v

impm tub ag a,”ag F P,

Ju 26, 2006. abu w w, “ag P r Mqu;

c P,” Juy 9, 2006. Gm sm, “ag sup

kg ag l up,” Gb M, Juy 20, 2007.

427 Gm sm, “tum P r,” Gb M,

ap 19, 2006.

428 Gm sm, “tum P r,” Gb M,

ap 19, 2006. cp vg, “P c v impm

tub ag a,”ag F P, Ju 26, 2006.

429

cp vg, “P c v impm tub ag a,”ag F P, Ju 26, 2006. abu w

w, “ag P r Mqu; c P,” Juy 9, 2006.

Gm sm, “ag sup kg ag l up,”

Gb M, Juy 20, 2007.

430 tp i Un o kbu. Juy 20,

2010.

431 t- ag, Ju 19, 2007, pg 1.4. t by “P

s l ag npp, 20 Ju, 2007,” BBc

Mg su a – P. Ju 20, 2007.


2010.


2010.


2010.

435 ag F P, “ag P c s o tb

Jb: My,” Ju 26, 2008.

436 ag F P, “ag P c s o tb

Jb: My,” Ju 26, 2008.

437 s cy, e-m au, dmb 20, 2009.


ag l s b by c.i.a.,” New York Times, ob 27,

2009; n k, “kz: ag Gu empy by Us k

P,” a P o, Ju 29, 2009. cg P

M F, “ag h by U.s. k tp p o,”

o cz, Ju 30, 2009; B am nm, “ig

M ib, sy am,” Pj ag n, Ju 30,

2009.

439 s cy, -m u, dmb 20, 2009.

440 i ag Ju, dmb 22, 2009.

441 B Fm, “w ag Fu im

Gg, P P ru w B dgu tm

cuy’ Fgg dmy,” t suy tgp,

spmb 2, 2009.

442 s cy, -m u, Juy 28, 2010; tp

i ag Ju, dmb 22, 2009; tp

i Un o kbu. Juy 20, 2010.

443 s cy, -m u, Juy 28, 2010.

444Gm sm, “tum P r,” Gb M,

ap 19, 2006.

445 dug sm, “c Bg tug n cp tub

ag d,” c n s, Ju 28, 2008. t-

ag, Ju 19, 2007, pg 1.4. t by “P s l

ag npp, 20 Ju, 2007,” BBc Mg su

a – P. Ju 20, 2007.

446 i c ju, dmb 9, 2009.

447 dug sm, “c Bg tug n cp tub

ag d,” c n s, Ju 28, 2008.

448 tp c Bu r, Juy 7, 2010.

449 B am nm, “U.s. F Gu d t P

k, Pj ag n, Juy 25, 2009.


2010.


2010.


2010.


2010.

454 am r, tb, 17-30. Guzz U.

455 s cy, The Punishment o Virtue.




notes456 tp i ag Ju, dmb 22,

2009.

457 s cy, -m u, dmb 21, 2009;

tp i ag Ju, dmb 22, 2009.

458 s cy, -m u, dmb 21, 2009;

tp i ag Ju, dmb 21, 2009.

459 tp i ag Ju, dmb 21, 2009.

460 Gm sm, “a s s t P tg,” The

Globe and Mail, spmb 18, 2007; Gm sm, “tp Py

P B suy,” The Globe and Mail, ob 9, 2007; B

G, “r c P M dub sp

tg ag P,” c P, dmb 4, 2008;

J amg, “ag’ P amy squ: i u b

Fuy, w’ dy,” The Globe and Mail, Fbuy 7, 2009.

461 Gm sm, “a s s t P tg,” The Globe

and Mail, spmb 18, 2007; Gm sm, “tp Py P

B suy,” The Globe and Mail, ob 9, 2007; B G,

“r c P M dub sp tg

ag P,” c P, dmb 4, 2008

462 B G, “r c P M dub

sp tg ag P,” t c P, dmb

4, 2008.

463 a Guzz, “s op ssr ag.”


2010; s cy, -m au, dmb 20, 2009

465 s cy, -m au, dmb 20, 2009; tb

l o, “d am, k-y, k

P,” nmb 2009.

466 cp isaF , M 30, 2010.

467 s cy, -m au, dmb 20, 2009;

tp i Un o kbu. Juy 20, 2010.

468 Gm sm, “‘Pu pp gy bu p,’”

The Globe and Mail, ap 27, 2007; “t r c’ l,”

t c P, dmb 16, 2009;

469 abu w w, “ag P r Mqu; c

P,” New York Times, Juy 9, 2006. Guzz, k, k, lpp, 45; “ag P d 25 smy su

Pb tb l,” ag im P n agy,

by BBc Mg, Juy 8, 2006

470tp c Bu r, Juy 7, 2010.

471 tp c Bu r, Juy 7, 2010.

472 n, mp, pj u by Gm sm

The Globe and Mail 2008, g y tb g

k m tb ppg mm m,

m , m kz

pupp p g,

b u u ag. Gm

sm, “tg tb,” Gb M.m

473 i ag Ju, dmb 22, 2009.

474 a s l, “G t w abu u F

e,” Foreign Policy Magazine, augu 21, 2009.


e,” Foreign Policy Magazine, augu 21, 2009.

476 hb humy, “t r- hm kz,” Institute or

the Study o War , Juy, 2010.


e,” Foreign Policy Magazine, augu 21, 2009; a s

l, “k e r,” F cub, augu

16, 2009.

478 J B, “kz cu tb v w k,” t

ob, 8.16.2009; s vm, “Bb Bm d:

i ag e,” The Globe and Mail, augu 18, 2009.


ob, augu 16, 2009

480 J B, “kz cu tb v w k,”

t ob, augu 16, 2009; M rbg a

Gp, “kz B r imp P o,” Wall Street

Journal, augu 8, 2010.


ob, 8.16.2009

482 a s l, “k e r,”

8.16.2009

483 ip e cmm, P P

cu e ru: p://..g./u/i.m,

a spmb, 2009.

484 ip e cmm, P P

cu e ru: p://..g./u/P28.m,

a Juy, 2010

485 ip e cmm, P Pcu e ru: p://..g./u/P28.m,

a Juy, 2010.

486 d F c G, “F P s F kz,

o a,” spmb 7, 2009.

487 t-tv, kbu, “ag MP ag v rggg

su P,” BBc Mg su a – P,

spmb 1, 2009.




notes488 d F, “ag tb l y kz’ tm s

v,” New York Times, spmb 2, 2009.

489 d F, “ag tb l y kz’ tm s

v,” New York Times, spmb 2, 2009

490 J B d n, “cu hg ag

e,” augu 28, 2009; d F c G, “F

P s F kz, o a,” spmb 7, 2009.

491 d F, “ag tb l y kz’ tm s

v,” New York Times, spmb 2, 2009.

492 “ag: t -c n-su d,”

stratFor, ap 6, 2007.

493 tm l, “tg ag dug t F hg

P,” kg r, My 7, 2009; a s l,

“k e r,” F cub, augu 16, 2009.

494 s cy, -m u, J 27, 2010.

495 t t.v. “ag MP’ g ggg u

p,” spmb 1, 2009

496 a s l, “k e r,”

F cub, augu 16, 2009.

497 a s l, “k e r,”

F cub, augu 16, 2009.

498 a s l, “k e r,”

F cub, augu 16, 2009.

499 h- sb, “ag P c Bm kz

Bg supp,” BBc Mg su a – P,

My 26, 2009.

500 t 2010 my u m p

ip e cmm. s BBc n, “kz P

By P Gb sp w c,” Fbuy 23, 2010.

501 iec, 2009 e ru, k P cu,

p://..g./u/P/eP28.m: a

nmb, 2009, dmb, 2009.

502 c ip e cmm, P

P cu e ru: p://..g./u/

i.m, spmb, 2009, u dmb,

2009.

503 iec, 2009 e ru, k P cu,

p://..g./u/P/eP28.m, a

dmb, 2009.

504 iec, 2009 e ru, k P cu,

p://..g./u/P/eP28.m:n

Pgu s Pgm cuu c su,

“P o,” tb l o, “d am,

k-y, k P,” nmb 2009, 35-36.

505 iec, 2009 e ru, k P cu,

p://..g./u/P/eP28.m:n

Pgu s Pgm cuu c su,

“P o.”

506

iec, 2009 e ru, k P cu,p://..g./u/P/eP28.m: n

Pgu s Pgm cuu c su,

“P o.”

507 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010

508 cp isaF o, M 30, 2010.

509 d F c G, “F P s F kz,

o a,” t New York Times, spmb 7, 2009; d

F, “ag tb l sy kz’ tm s v,”

spmb 2, 2009; a s l, “G t w

abu u F e,” Foreign Policy Magazine, augu 21, 2009.

510 n mmy m ju am

Mu k M, 2010: d igu, “U.s

cmpg rm k r P,” Washington Post,

ap 1, 2010; s c, “k,” The New Yorker Bg, ap 2,

2010.

511 Guzz U, 179.

512 Guzz U, 179.

513 tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 65-70.

514tb l o, “d am, k-y,

k P,” nmb 2009, 65-70.

515 s cy, e-m u, ob 22, 2009.

516 c Jg, “Up m k,” t cuu

c r, nmb 11, 2008

517 a Guzz n U, “t i cy;”

M rbg a Gp, “kz b

mp p ,” Wall Street Journal, augu 8, 2009

518 “kz cu tb v w k,” t ob,

augu 16, 2009.


imp nato,” t cuu c r,11.1.2008

520 Gm sm, “ag tb p m d,” The

Globe and Mail, Fbuy 19, 2008. c Jg, “Up m

k: a cy c imp nato,” t

cuu c r, 11.1.2008. s cy, “s

Gm,” 3.15.2008.

521 Gm sm, “ag tb p m d,” The

Globe and Mail, Fbuy 19, 2008




notes522 s cy, “s Gm,” M 15, 2008.

523 s cy, s Gm, 3.15.2008, c


nato,” t cuu c r, nmb 1, 2008

524 s cy, -m u, dmb 21, 2009.

525 ay t,Reconciling with the Taliban? Towards and Alternative Grand

Strategy in Aghanistan, (wg d.c., cg em

i P, 2009.), 8-14; am eu, “U.s. s ag

r d lg Y,” ru, ap 2, 2010.

526 Muy B, “c g u jb g

tb,” t c P, ob 21, 2008.

527 Muy B, “c p g u

ag,” t c P, M 23, 2009.

Muy B, “c g u jb g

tb,” t c P, ob 21, 2008.

528 Muy B, “c p g u

ag,” t c P, M 23, 2009.

Muy B, “c g u jb g

tb,” t c P, ob 21, 2008.

529 J B, “tb c ag c d ag

e,” augu 14, 2009.

530 J B, tb c g ag

e,” augu 14, 2009.

531 J B, tb c g ag

e,” augu 14, 2009.

532 F F e Fu ag, augu 22,

2009 Bg.

533 ay t, Reconciling with the Taliban? Towards and Alternative Grand

Strategy in Aghanistan, (wg d.c., cg em

i P, 2009.), 8-14


Strategy in Aghanistan, 8-14. Muy B, “c p g

u ag,” t c P,

M 23, 2009.

535 d n B Fm, “hm kz h s t

Mu B P,” tgp..u, M 16, 2010;

a Gp, “h ag tb lp a

P,” Christian Science Monitor , Fbuy 24, 2010; “P’

cmp M,” Boston Globe, Fbuy 22, 2010.


Strategy in Aghanistan, 8


Strategy in Aghanistan, 6-7.

538 M l a rub, “w P kz: r

ou tb,” New York Times, Juy 28, 2010; db rm

ky G,“kz ‘y gy’ tb b’

P,” a P, M 16, 2010.

539 Gm sm, “w buy g up,”The Globe

and Mail, Fbuy 24, 2007.

540 abub squ, “k P P c t

ag’ Fuu,” rFe/rl, 9.2.2009



542 e B, “ag P sy k o My

n G a,” c n s, ap 4, 2010.

543 n, , tm MG, “kz’ B cmp

k P,” Time Magazine, M 19, 2010; d F,

“dp dub, kz B r P,” New York Times, M

30, 2010; k dYug cg w, “U.s. F s

sg tb B k,” Washington Post, M 31,

2010,

544 Pj ag n, “op k e’

dm: kz,” ap 5, 2010; Ju P, “kz’ d

s c U.s., ag o,” Washington Post, ap 5,

2010.

545 F mp, am w kz p

ug agb pu isaF gg

uy d dm, y uggg

g u tb g .

546 M F, “c’ cmm ag: n jb

.” c, My 11, 2009.

547 d F, “am w kz,” Time Magazine, ob 28,

2009.

548 d F, “w tp, dm ag sp

Up Fg,” t New York Times, dmb 2, 2009; tm MG,

“kz’ B cmp k P,” Time Magazine, M

19, 2010; d F, “dp dub, kz B r

P,” New York Times, M 30, 2010.

549 ky G, “aP i: kz P obm’

d,” a P, dmb 4, 2009.

550 tm MG, “ag: kz’ B cmp

k P,” M 19, 2010.

551 M t Fy, M Pg, Pu d B, “Fg

i: a Bup Mg ig r ag,”

c n am suy, Juy 2010.

552 M t Fy, M Pg, Pu d B, “Fg

i: a Bup Mg ig r ag,”

c n am suy, Juy 2010, 19-22.



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Afghan Report#5