Text of AFFECTIVE FORECASTING PSYC 385. Affective Forecasting - Definition
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING PSYC 385
Affective Forecasting - Definition
Creation of Affective Forecasts
Components of Forecasts 1.Valence 2.Specific emotions 3.Intensity 4.Duration
Impact Bias The tendency to overestimate the enduring impact that future events will have on our emotional reactions.
Neglecting Other Outcomes Focalism: Tendency to focus on just the emotional experience at hand, neglecting the extent to which unrelated events will also be affecting their thoughts and emotions. Misconstrual problem: sometimes people will mistakenly imagine the wrong event.
Differences > similarities Isolation effect: occurs when people disregard components that the alternatives share and focus on the components that distinguish them.
Past Experiences Dont remember enough information about our previous emotional states Peak & end rules
Impossible to Predict Future Projection Bias How you feel now is not how you feel later
Where else we go wrong Hot & cold states Groceries while hungry
Emotional evanescence Adaptation level theories 1. People orient towards unexpected but relevant info in their environment 2. Experience more intense emotional reactions to unexpected, relevant info than to other events 3. Once an unexpected event occurs and people have a relatively intense emotional reaction, they attempt to make sense of the event, quickly and automatically 4. When people make sense of an event it no longer seems surprising or unexpected, and as a result they think about it less and it produces a less intense emotional reaction
Psychological Immune System We have many psychological defenses that detect and neutralize events that challenge peoples sense of well-being. Not a conscious process
Immune Neglect Similar to ordinization Do you think negative feedback will feel terrible?
Summary of Errors
Why dont we learn? Recall is subject to same biases Intensity & duration are remembered incorrectly Focalism
How can we improve? Research on prediction suggests: Adopting an outside view Performing some cognitive repairs Aggregating Predictions