Aff

Link Turn

Food prices increasingUSDA ‘16 (United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June 2016, Web, http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx) SC

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, rose 0.3 percent from May to June 2016 and is 1 percent above the June 2015 level. The CPI for all food decreased from May to June—a decrease of 0.2 percent. Food prices are 0.3 percent above the June 2015 level. The degree of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption away from home or at home. The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI was up 0.2 percent in June and is 2.6 percent higher than June 2015; and The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food items) CPI decreased 0.4 percent from May to June and is 1.3 percent lower than last June. ERS revises its food price forecasts if the conditions (such as the feed grain crop outlook or weather-related crop conditions) on which they are based change significantly. In 2016, ERS predicts food-at-home (supermarket) prices to rise 0.25 to 1.25 percent —a rate of inflation that would again fall below the 20-year historical average of 2.5 percent. The forecast has been lowered due to recent declines in prices for poultry, egg, and dairy products. Lower transportation costs due to deflated oil prices as well as the strength of the U.S. dollar have placed additional downward pressure on food prices in the first half of 2016, resulting in more goods on the U.S. market at a lower price. Looking ahead to 2017, supermarket prices are expected to rise between 1.0 and 2.0 percent. Despite the expectation for declining prices in 2016, beef and veal, poultry, and dairy prices are expected to rise in 2017. These forecasts are based on an assumption of normal weather conditions throughout the remainder of the year; however, severe weather or other unforeseen events could potentially drive up food prices beyond the current forecasts. In particular, the drought in California could have large and lasting effects on fruit, vegetable, dairy, and egg prices. Also, a stronger U.S. dollar could continue to make the sale of domestic food products overseas more difficult. This would increase the supply of foods on the domestic market, placing downward pressure on retail food prices.

Climate change is the causeSchlenker and Roberts ‘09 (Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences, “Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change“ August 28, 2009, Web, Abstract, http://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.short) SC

The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed,

area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.

A carbon tax would cause a decrease in CO2 Emissions –Norway provesBruvoll and Larsen ‘03 (Annegrete Bruvoll & Bodil Merethe Larsen, Statistics Norway, “Greenhouse gas emissions - do carbon taxes work?” August 12, 2003, Web, Page 19, http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~carsonvs/papers/632.pdf) SC

The observed CO2 emissions amounted to 41.7 mill. tonnes in 1999. Combining the observed data with the AGE tax analysis, we find that the observed emissions is 2.32 percent lower than what the emissions would have been without the carbon tax. Combining the AGE analysis with the observed data, we estimate the zero-tax CO2 emissions in 1999 to 42.7 mill. tonnes. This implies that the growth in emissions from 1990 to 1999 without the tax would have been higher; 21.05 percent over the period 1990-1999, as opposed to observed growth of 18.73 percent (see the last row of Table 5).

Warming Bad

Warming bad - No farm adaptaionFarmers cant adapt to warming

Tucker, Catherine. “Perceptions of risk and adaptation: Coffee producers, market shocks, and extreme

weather in Central America and Mexico”. 02/2010. http://pl8cg5fc8w.scholar.serialssolutions.com/?sid=google&auinit=CM&aulast=Tucker&atitle=Perceptions+of+risk+and+adaptation:+Coffee+producers,+market+shocks,+and+extreme+weather+in+Central+America+and+Mexico&id=doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.006&title=Global+environmental+change&volume=20&issue=1&date=2010&spage=23&issn=0959-3780 HR

We expected that perceptions would be critical in shaping farmers’ adaptive responses to the stresses outside their previous experiences. It has been argued that “… agricultural systems, as with other human activities, evolve not in response to average conditions…, but in response to variable and largely unpredictable conditions, including occasional extremes” (Smit et al., 1996, p. 9). Farmers, similar to other decision makers, operate with an expectation of some degree of variability in the climatic conditions for production, and typically have developed a number of strategies to cope with such annual

and interannual variability (see summary in Agrawal et al., 2008). Nevertheless, climate change may generate changes in production conditions, causing more variable conditions that may begin to exceed the limits of farmers’ coping strategies (Smit et al., 2000). If farmers perceive an event as highly anomalous, it may be sufficient to convince them that conditions are changing beyond the bounds of normal variation, and motivate adaptive changes.

Co2 ag theory wrongNo uniform plant response to Co2 - unpredictableSingh, Dubey, and Yahuraiu ’16, ICAR-National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi-110 012, India International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, Patancheru-502319, Scientests and professors at the University of New Delhi. Mool Chand Singh, S.C. Dubey and N.T. YadurajuInternational Journal of Science, Environment and Technology, Vol. 5, No 3, 2016, 1530 – 1539, http://www.ijset.net/journal/1032.pdf gb

Climate change is now a widely accepted phenomenon. Atmospheric CO2 concentration have risen from about 280 ppm (pre-industrial period) to today’s about 390 ppm and it is expected that by the end of 21st century, it will reach to the levels of 600-700 ppm, if current emission

trends continue (IPCC, 2001). Climate models projected that the global earth surface temperature is likely to rise in a range of 1.1 to 6.4°C during the 21st century due to the rising CO2 concentration (IPCC, 2004). There are concerns that global CO2 enrichment will affect weeds and crop yields directly or indirectly through global warming and its associated

changes in climate such as alteration in precipitation, wind pattern, rise in sea level and more flood and drought. It has been reported that elevated CO2 concentration cause an increase in photosynthesis (Kendall et al. 1985) and decrease in photorespiration and respiration (Bruce and Caulfield, 1991; Ziska and Bunce, 1993), and different species differ in their response to elevated CO2 concentrations (Poorter, 1993). It is postulated that competition between plants will change with different responses to elevated CO2 and temperature (Hunt et al., 1991). Generally, it is reported that plants with C3 photosynthetic pathways are expected to benefit more than C4 from CO2 enrichment but inverse is true with rising temperature.

Turn – the plants that benefit wreck agSingh, Dubey, and Yahuraiu ’16, ICAR-National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi-110 012, India International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, Patancheru-502319, Scientests and professors at the University of New Delhi. Mool Chand Singh, S.C. Dubey and N.T. YadurajuInternational Journal of Science, Environment and Technology, Vol. 5, No 3, 2016, 1530 – 1539, http://www.ijset.net/journal/1032.pdf gb

The differential response of C3 and C4 plants to elevated CO2 and temperature can have important implications on crop/weed competition as most of the weeds are C4. But this fundamental idea that most crops are C3 and most weeds are C4, and hence weed competition will consequently decrease as CO2 increases, should not be viewed as universal axiom (Ziska 2001, 2003). Clearly, there are four major C4 crops of economic importance (corn, pearl- millet, sorghum, and sugarcane), and many

important C3 weeds (e.g. Chenopodium album, Avena ludoviciana, Phalaris minor, Eclipta prostrate, Ammania baccifera etc.). Therefore, it is important to examine crop/weed competition case by case to develop effective weed management practice for the emerging species in the changing climate scenario. Climate change may bring changes in weed population and in their

phenology. Many weed species may expand their range and spread to new areas. In addition to its impact on agricultural

weed, literature suggest that invasive species may become more of a threat in changing climate because of their strong response to elevated CO2 and changing climate compared to other native species. Moreover, some weed species which directly impact human health through allergic reactions, skin irritations, or internal poisoning have shown positive response to changing climate particularly to elevated CO2 concentration by producing higher plant

biomass, pollens or poisonous compounds. Climate change may also likely have a direct or indirect impact on the chemical, mechanical and biological control methods by reducing their effectiveness on weeds. Very limited studies have examined the impact of climate change on weeds in India, therefore, the overall goal of this review paper is (1) to address the anticipatory changes in weed biology and dynamics with climate change in order to develop flexible integrated weed management practices which are based on a foundation of knowledge of weed biology and ecology and (2) to stimulate research interest in the area of climate change and weeds to predict possible impacts on weeds. Specifically, the paper aims to discuss the effects of climate change on 1) crop-weed competitive interaction under single (CO2 or temperature) or multiple factors (e.g. CO2 and temperature or CO2); 2) invasiveness; and 3) weed management.

Resulting weeds ruin cropsSingh, Dubey, and Yahuraiu ’16, ICAR-National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi-110 012, India International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, Patancheru-502319, Scientests and professors at the University of New Delhi. Mool Chand Singh, S.C. Dubey and N.T. YadurajuInternational Journal of Science, Environment and Technology, Vol. 5, No 3, 2016, 1530 – 1539, http://www.ijset.net/journal/1032.pdf gb

Despite prediction that both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature will rise together, very limited studies have been conducted to assess the possible interaction effects of these two global change factors on weeds and crop/weed competition.

Most studies have focused mainly on the response of plant species to elevated CO2. The outcome can be totally

different when both factors are taken together compared to when consider only one factor. For example, in a study conducted by Alberto et al. (1996), rice had competitive advantage over C4 weed (Echinochloa glabrescens) when considered elevated CO2 only, whereas when considered both elevated CO2 and elevated temperature, C4 weed (E. glabrescens) had competitive advantage over rice crop. Therefore, more studies of interacting effects of

elevated CO2 and temperature are needed to help predict how weed problems may change in future. It is likely that dominant weed species in a given crop may change with change in climate.C3 weed may dominate under elevated CO2 conditions, whereas, under both elevated CO2 and temperature C4 may dominate. Climate change may bring changes in weed phenology and biology which can further lead to shift in weed flora. Many weed species may expand their range and spread to new areas. It is therefore, important to predict changes in weed flora with climate to develop adaptive management practice. Impact of climate change on current weed management practices It is predicted that climate change can reduce the effectiveness of current weed management practices (Ziska et al., 1999). Chemical control is the most common form of

weed control. Changes in temperature, wind speed, soil moisture and humidity can influence the efficacy of herbicides. For example, drought can lead to thick cuticle development which in turn can reduce the herbicide entry in the plant. Ziska et al. (1999 and 2004) also found that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can reduce the glyphosate efficacy. Mechanical control of perennial weeds is also likely be adversely affected by elevated CO2 conditions. For example, the greater amount of root growth observed at elevated CO2 in Canada thistle, meaning more asexual propogules (Figure 4). Since Canada thistle propogate asexually, hence, disking/harrowing would result in greater weed infestations. Hence, tillage practices may have to adapt

accordingly. However, we have almost no data on mechanical control as a function of rising carbon dioxide levels. Similarly, climate change could alter the efficacy of weed bio-control agent by affecting the development, morphology, and reproduction of target bio-agent. Overall, it is clear that changing climate or rising CO2 will likely alter weed management.

Ev doesn’t account for 23/c4 plant type distinctionsSingh, Dubey, and Yahuraiu ’16, ICAR-National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi-110 012, India International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, Patancheru-502319, Scientests and professors at the University of New Delhi. Mool Chand Singh, S.C. Dubey and N.T. YadurajuInternational Journal of Science, Environment and Technology, Vol. 5, No 3, 2016, 1530 – 1539, http://www.ijset.net/journal/1032.pdf gb

Direct physiological effects of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis and plant growth have been well documented. Plants with C3 photosynthetic pathways are expected to benefit more than C4 from CO2 enrichment (Patterson and Flint 1980). This differential response of C3 and C4 plants to elevated CO2 can have important implications on

crop/weed competition as most of the weeds are C4. Therefore, it can be argued that because of C4 photosynthetic pathway of many weed species, they will show smaller response to elevated CO2 relative to crops which are mostly C3. But in agricultural setting, weeds with both C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways are present (Table 1). Hence, if a C4 weed species is less responsive to elevated CO2

concentration; it is likely that C3 weed species present in the crop will respond more to elevated CO2. Moreover, clearly, there are four major C4 crops of economic importance (corn, pearl-millet, sorghum, and sugarcane). Therefore, it is important to examine crop/weed competition cropping system based to develop effective weed management practice for the emerging species in the

changing climate scenario. Some of the examples of crop/weed competition with similar and different photosynthetic pathway have been discussed below under elevated CO2 situation.

Aff UQ

Prices high nowGlobal Food Prices on the RiseDomingo 16 (“Global food prices on the rise “) Ronnel W. Domingo, Philippine Daily Inquirer July 9, 2016 http://business.inquirer.net/211735/global-food-prices-on-the-rise HU

Global prices of food commodities rose for the fifth straight month in June to reach a four-year high of 4.2 percent, according to the Food and Agriculture Office. The FAO said in the latest update of its Food Price Index that the

increase last month affected all commodity categories except vegetable oils. The index is trade-weighted and tracks international market prices for the cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar commodity groups. For June, the index averaged 163.4 points, up 4 percent or 6.7 points from the 156.7 points recorded in May . The index was also now 1 percent below the 164.9 points reached in June 2015. Even then, the FAO said there were prospects for improved food production for the year ahead. Earlier this week, the FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the world had likely seen the end to a period of high agricultural prices, but vigilance was needed as the probability of a major price swing remained high. The OECD and the FAO said in their Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 report that inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices were expected to remain “relatively flat overall” in the next 10 years. “Although we are now witnessing a period of lower agricultural prices, we need to remain alert as changes in markets can take place rapidly,” OECD secretary general Angel Gurria said in a statement. “The key priority for governments in the current context is to implement policies that will increase agricultural productivity in a coherent and sustainable way,” Gurria said. “Getting our agricultural policies right is critical to end hunger and undernourishment in the decades to come.” The report shows that, globally, the increased demand for food and feed for a growing and more affluent population was projected to be mostly met through productivity gains.

World food prices hit 4 year high Rome 16 (“World food prices hit 4-year high in June, says FAO “) REUTERS July 7th, 2016 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/world-food-prices-hit-4year-high-in-june-says-fao/article8820165.ece HU

World food prices posted their biggest monthly rise for four years in June, buoyed by a surge in sugar and increases for most other edible commodities, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. Food prices have been gaining ground since hitting a near seven-year low in January after four straight annual

declines, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Agency (FAO) now expects them to be stable for the next decade. The 4.2 per cent gain from May was the fifth increase in a row for the index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar. Food prices on international markets are now just 1 per cent below the same month last year, the FAO said. Sugar prices rose 14.8 per cent in June as heavy rains hampered sugar harvesting and affected yields in the world’s largest producer, Brazil, the FAO said. Vegetable oil prices defied the upward trend to slip 0.8 per cent, led by palm oil. The FAO raised its forecast for world cereal production in the 2016-17 season to 2.544 billion tonnes, 15.3 million tonnes higher than last year but still below 2014’s record harvest.

A2: Warming = weather disasters

Weather is a result of natural variation – warming not keyHertzberg and Schreuder ‘16 Dr Hertzberg is an internationally recognized expert on combustion, flames, explosions, and fire research with over 100 publications in those areas. Hans Schreuder trained as an analytical chemist in The Hague and has long been a highly regarded critic of the greenhouse gas theory. http://www.tech-know-group.com/papers/Reassessing_CO2_climate_role.pdf gb

REALITY It was more than a century ago that the scientific basis for Meteorology was established, largely by Scandinavian scientists. Those schooled in that discipline became known as Meteorologists. Today, a new breed of researchers has joined their ranks calling themselves “climate scientists” and favored word usages are “carbon pollution”, “greenhouse gases”, “global warming”, linked to “climate change”, “climate disruption”, “dirty coal” and “atmospheric CO2 concentration” and a belief that unless we stop burning fossil fuels the planet will be

destroyed. Their allies are environmental activists and liberal or democratic politicians who support of the IPCC paradigm. Carbon Dioxide is not a pollutant but an essential ingredient in the Earth's ecosystem on which almost all of life depends via photosynthesis. Experiences of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, blizzards, floods, tsunamis, droughts, monsoons, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions intuits that such weather, climate, or geological events are controlled by strong natural forces on a scale that dwarf human activity or the ability to completely control them.

The forces and motions in the oceans and atmosphere are driven by the following. • First, the motions of the Earth relative to the Sun: periodic changes in its elliptical orbit, its rotation about its polar axis, changes in the tilt of that axis,

and its wobble or precession. • Second, solar activity variations that influence the radiant energy reaching the Earth and also

modulate cosmic ray activity, which influences cloud cover and cloudiness. • Third, the distribution of land and water on the Earth's surface, which controls its temperature distribution, moisture availability, monsoon effects, hurricanes, and other storm tracks. •

Fourth, the topography of the Earth's surface which causes copious precipitation on the windward side of mountains and aridity

on the leeward side. • Fifth, fluid motions within the Earth's oceans that determine moisture availability and ocean surface temperatures (El Nino and La Nina cycles).

• Sixth, volcanic eruptions that inject huge amounts of dust into the atmosphere, increasing theEarth's albedo and periodically inhibiting sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface.

11 • Seventh, known and yet-to-be charted underwater volcanic eruptions, including the recently discovered “black smokers” that spew super-heated water continuously. They are expected to number in the hundreds of thousands. The ocean floor is less well-known to

science than the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. Water in all its forms is the main agent through which those forces operate. Water provides vapor in the atmosphere, heat transport by evaporation and condensation and the vast circulating mass of the oceans where heat capacity dominates. Finally, it provides the cloud, snow, and ice cover that influences the Earth's albedo and thus play a part in the radiative balance between the Sun, the Earth, and free space. For the past year, neutron monitors [9] near the Arctic Circle have recorded an increasing intensity of cosmic rays. In the plot below, neutrons monitored by the University of Oulu Cosmic Ray Station are traced in red; gamma-ray/X-ray measurements over California are in gray. Increased cosmic ray penetration is making itself felt not only over the poles, but also over lower latitudes where Earth's magnetic field provides greater protection against deep space radiation. Figure 9: Cosmic ray measurements are intensifying This type of radiation through our atmosphere is modulated by solar activity. Solar storms and Coronal Mass Ejections [10] tend to sweep aside cosmic rays, making it more difficult for them to reach the Earth. Conversely, low solar activity allows an extra dose of cosmic rays to penetrate. Indeed, the ongoing increase in cosmic ray intensity is probably due to a decline in the solar cycle. Solar Maximum of Cycle 24 has already passed and we are heading toward a new Solar Minimum. NASA forecasters expect solar activity to drop sharply in the years ahead and cosmic rays are poised to increase accordingly. More cosmic rays will increase cloud cover across the globe and

together with the expected Solar Minimum will drive global temperatures downward. Those are the well-established factors that control weather and climate and have been recognized by Meteorologists for over a century. An 0.04% CO2 presence is essential for life on Earth. The idea that a constituent of that scale in the atmosphere could control or significantly influence those forces would not seem feasible, particularly in the absence of proven evidence.

Neg

Warming good

Warming good - fish

Warming results in increase of small fish population. Daufresne, Martin, Kathrin Lengfellner, and Ulrich Sommer. "Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. June 3 2009. http://www.pnas.org/content/106/31/12788.short. July 29 2016. NL

Community Body Size Shift. A metaanalysis revealed that the mean temporal trend (S) of mean body size of fish in large French rivers was significantly negative during the last 2–3 decades under gradual warming (Fig. 3). A decrease in mean body size with increasing temperature was also observed for bacteria in temperature-controlled mesocosms [extended linear mixedeffect (LME) model, coefficient estimate 1.06 103, t value 5.51, number of observations 68, P 3.1 102; Fig. 4 Fig. 4A]. The mean cell size of phytoplankton also tended to decrease with increasing temperature in the same mesocosms (16) (Fig. 4B). Species Shift. Supporting the species-shift hypothesis, the proportion of small-sized species significantly increased in communities of large French rivers (Fig. 3) both in terms of species richness and abundance. Similar patterns were also observed for the fish community of the North Sea where the geographical ranges of small species expanded, whereas those of large species shrank due to warming (17) (Fig. 4C). In this way, the more even distribution of small species and the patchier distribution of large species should result locally in an average temporal increase in the number of small species and an average decrease in the number of large species. Finally, because the same size si was attributed to all individuals from a given phytoplankton taxon i in ref. 16, the observed decrease in mean size described above (community body size shift; Fig. 4B) is entirely due to an increase in proportion of abundances of small-sized taxa. Population Body Size Shift. Besides interspecific patterns, our metaanalysis revealed a negative temporal trend in the mean body size of individual fish populations under global warming (Fig. 3). Herring and sprat populations in the Baltic Sea showed merely significant stronger decrease in mean size than freshwater species populations (coefficient Qb 2.67, P 0.10), underlining the potential additive effect of fisheries.

<need small fish resolves overfishing>

Reducing over-fishing vastly helps eradicate world hunger, and methodology can be cross-applied to typical agriculture.Serageldin, Ismail, Director of Egypt’s Library of Alexandria and the former chairman of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, “Abolishing Hunger,” Issues in Science and Techology, Summer 2009, http://issues.org/25-4/serageldin/, Aug. 1st 2016, NL

Aquatic resources. In almost every aspect of food production, we are farmers, except in aquatic resources, where we are still hunter-gatherers. In the 19th century, hunters almost wiped out the

buffaloes from the Great Plains of the United States. Today, we have overfished all the marine fisheries in the world, as we focused our efforts on developing ever more efficient and destructive hunting techniques. We now deploy huge factory ships that can stay at sea for months at a time, reducing some species to commercial extinction. We need to invest in the nascent technologies of fish farming. There is some effort being made to promote the farming of tilapia, sometimes called the aquatic chicken. In addition, integrating some aquaculture into the standard cropping techniques of small farmers has proven to be ecologically and economically viable. The private sector has invested in some high-value products such as salmon and shrimp. But aquaculture is still in its infancy compared to other areas of food production. A massive international program is called for. Marine organisms reproduce very quickly and in very large numbers, but the scientific farming of marine resources is almost nonexistent. Proper farming systems can be devised that will be able to provide cheap and healthy proteins for a growing population. About half the global population lives near the sea. Given the billions that have gone into subsidizing commercial fishing fleets, it is inconceivable that no priority has been given to this kind of highly promising research. Decisionmakers must address that need today. Science has been able to eke out of the green plants a system of food production that is capable of supporting the planet’s human population. It is not beyond the ken of scientists to ensure that the bounty of that production system is translated into food for the most needy and most vulnerable of the human family. Science, technology, and innovation have produced an endless string of advances that have benefited humanity. It is time that we turn that ingenuity and creativity to address the severe ecological challenges ahead and to ensure that all people have that most basic of human rights, the right to food security. Most of the necessary scientific knowledge already exists, and many of the technologies are on the verge of becoming deployable. It is possible to transform how we produce and distribute the bounty of this earth. It is possible to use our resources in a sustainable fashion. It is possible to abolish hunger in our lifetime, and we need to do so for our common humanity.

Warming good – China Growing seasonWarming increases Chinese growing seasonYang, Xiu, et al. 2007, Department of International CooperationChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, "Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China." Climatic Change 84.1: 45-58. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 20 June 2007. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-007-9265-0. July 29 2016. N.L.

Northeast China comprises Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, with a total area of 790,000 km2 and a population of about 107 million. Northeast China, located at relatively high latitudes, (from about 39 to 53°N), is one of the coolest regions in China with long and cold winters, a short growth season and frequent cold extreme events, which are adverse to agricultural production. However, since the 1980s, Northeast China has experienced significant warming with annual mean temperature rising by 1.0–2.5°C. The increase of accumulated temperature, the extension of the growth period and the recession of summer cool disasters all contributed to improved conditions for crop growth and led to a northward movement of the agricultural climate zone. In addition, the adaptation to warming including the adjustment of crop composition and structure as well as the adoption of advanced technologies greatly facilitated agricultural development. As a result, total grain production in the region increased rapidly. This paper describes in detail climate change, adaptation measures and final agricultural outcomes, alongside with economic and political factors and the role of different political actors in Northeast China.

That’s key to adapting to the other impacts of warmingYang, Xiu, et al. 2007, Department of International CooperationChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, "Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China." Climatic Change 84.1: 45-58. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 20 June 2007. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-007-9265-0. July 29 2016. N.L.

Agriculture will continue to be the most important sector in its need to adapt to climate change because nearly 70% of China’s population are farmers. Like other developing countries, China needs to develop adaptation strategies imposed by climate change in addition to handling existing poverty, resource and infrastructure related constraints. Northeast China was selected in this case study because it illustrates how anticipatory adaptation can lead to positive impacts from climate change in agriculture. This region is already one of the most important bases of commercial food grains (wheat, rice and maize) and economic crops (soybean, sugar beets) in China and possesses many state-owned farms that can take adaptation measures quickly. Recent warming has on the one hand created favorable conditions for agricultural development in Northeast China through a prolonged growth season, the northward movement of accumulated temperature belts, and the decrease of cold stress. On the other hand, environmental and natural resource problems (e.g. water shortage, urbanization) have exerted enormous pressure on agricultural production and natural ecosystems in the region, illustrating the complex nature of the impacts of climate change. This case study analyzes the adaptation efforts of key actors in agricultural production in Northeast China: farmers, non-governmental organizations, county cooperation credit organizations, agricultural technology dissemination groups and the central and local governments. Their adaptation actions demonstrate that the positive effects of climate change do not come across automatically but require communities to be supported with

resources such as extension services, new crop varieties and institutional frameworks that allow experimentation and reward entrepreneurship. Northeast China is demonstrated to be eager to adapt to climate change and benefits from the rising temperature, although different players have different requirements as far as adaptation support is concerned.

Warming good – night/winter warmingMost warming happens during winter at night – longer growing season and bigger yields – several warrantsFan et al. ’15 (Yonghui Fan et al., April 29, 2015, Field Crops Research, “Winter night warming improves pre-anthesis crop growth and post-anthesis photosynthesis involved in grain yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)” Web, Abstract, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429015001161) SC

Climate changes show asymmetric warming, and warming is typically greater during night than day. Field experiments were conducted using two winter wheat cultivars , Yangmai 13 (YM13) and Yannong 19 (YN19), to investigate the effects of night warming during winter (Winter warming treatment, WT) and spring (Spring

warming treatment, ST) seasons on physiological characters and grain yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the Yangtze River Basin of China in 2012–2014. The treatments of WT and ST were designed from tillering to jointing and from

jointing to booting with mean night temperature increased as 1.56–1.67 °C and 1.78–1.92 °C, respectively. The WT treatment significantly enhanced grain yield by increasing grain number and 1000-grains weight for both cultivars ,

while the ST treatment had less impact than WT treatment. Both warming treatments shortened pre-anthesis while elongated

post-anthesis growth duration, which resulted in higher post-anthesis growth degree days (GDD). The WT treatment significantly enhanced pre-anthesis crop growth rate (CGR), biomass and leaf area index (LAI) at

anthesis, but the ST treatment showed slight increase as compared with the controls. Furthermore, the WT treatment increased net photosynthetic rate (Pn), maximum photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), actual photosynthetic efficiency

(ФPSII) and the contents of total soluble protein and ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase

(Rubisco) in flag leaves within 21 days after anthesis. These results indicate that winter night warming treatment promotes pre-anthesis plant growth, leaf development and improves post-anthesis photosynthetic capacity eventually resulting in increased grain yield while spring night warming shows less impact on grain yield.

Increases leaf surface areaFan et al. ’15 (Yonghui Fan et al., April 29, 2015, Field Crops Research, “Winter night warming improves pre-anthesis crop growth and post-anthesis photosynthesis involved in grain yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)” Web, 5. Conclusion, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429015001161) SC

Night warming during winter highly increased grain yield of wheat, and this increase was greater than that observed during night warming in the spring treatment. The crop growth rate was improved before

anthesis under winter-night warming, which resulted in increased flag leaf area and LAI at anthesis, and higher

biomass at anthesis and maturity. Under night warming during winter, wheat could maintain a high photosynthetic capacity during the post-anthesis stage through increasing net photosynthesis rate and improving photochemical turnover efficiency of flag leaves, which was beneficial for grain yield.

Stimulates photosynthesisWan et al. ’09 (Shiqiang Wan et al., October 2009, Ecology, “Photosynthetic Overcompensation under Nocturnal Warming Enhances Grassland Carbon

Sequestration” Web, Abstract, http://www.jstor.org.nl.idm.oclc.org/stable/25592806) SCA mechanistic understanding of the carbon (C) cycle-climate change feedback is essential for projecting future states of climate and ecosystems.

Here we report a novel field mechanism and evidence supporting the hypothesis that nocturnal warming in a temperate steppe ecosystem in northern China can result in a minor C sink instead of a C source as models have predicted.

Nocturnal warming increased leaf respiration of two dominant grass species by 36.3%, enhanced consumption of carbohydrates in the leaves (72.2% and 60.5% for sugar and starch, respectively), and consequently stimulated plant photosynthesis by 19.8% in the subsequent days. Our experimental findings confirm previous observations of nocturnal warming stimulating plant photosynthesis through increased draw-down of leaf carbohydrates at night. The enhancement of plant photosynthesis overcompensated the increased C loss via plant respiration under nocturnal warming and shifted the steppe ecosystem from a minor C source (1.87 g C-m_2-yr_1) to a C sink (21.72 g C-m~2-yr_1) across the three growing seasons from 2006 to 2008. Given greater increases in daily minimum than maximum temperature in many regions, plant photosynthetic overcompensation may partially serve as a negative feedback mechanism for terrestrial biosphere to climate warming.

Dark resperation and photosynthetic capacityTurnball et al. ’04 (Matthew H. Turnball, March 2004, “The New Phytologist, Nocturnal Warming Increases Photosynthesis at Elevated CO2 Partial Pressure in Populus deltoides” Web, Summary, http://www.jstor.org.nl.idm.oclc.org/stable/1514545) SC

We measured night-time respiration and daytime photosynthesis of leaves in canopies of 4 m tall cottonwood (Populus deltoides) trees to investigate the link between leaf respiration and photosynthetic capacity. • Trees were grown at three CO2 partial pressures [p( CO2) a] (42, 80, 120 Pa) and experimentally exposed to differing nocturnal temperatures (15, 20 or 25°C), but constant daytime temperatures (30-32°C), in a short-term whole-ecosystem environmental manipulation. • Rates of night-time leaf dark respiration (R d) increased significantly at all growth CO2 partial pressures when nocturnal temperatures were increased from 15 to 25°C. Predawn leaf nonstructural carbohydrate (soluble sugars and starch) content was significantly lower at the higher night temperatures. Photosynthetic capacity (A max) during the day increased significantly between 15 and 25°C at 42 and 80 Pa, but not at 120 Pa. • These findings indicate that the previously determined relationships between elevated night-time temperature, dark respiration and increased photosynthetic capacity may also hold at elevated p( CO2) a. This response may have a significant influence on plant and ecosystem carbon exchange under global change scenarios.

Increases subtropical growing efficencyGuoqin, Zhong Shufu Huang, Department of Agronomy at Jiangxi Agricultural University, "A STUDY ON THE PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY OF UPLAND WINTER AGRICULTURE IN JIANGXI PROVINCE," Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis (1992), NLJiangxi lies in mid-subtropical China, having the natural resource advantage, which is suitable for developing winter agriculture and triple cropping system. However, there are a lot of fields left in fallow in winter or fall in Jiangxi, which wastes all the agricultural resources in these seasons.In order to make good use of sunlight, heat energy, rainfall, and cultivated land in winter and tap the potential productivity of upland winter agriculture, a field experiment was conducted in Nanchang, Jiangxi, from 1986 to 1989. The results showed that the development of upland winter agriculture can increase the economic efficiency, ecological efficiency, and social efficiency.

Even US agriculture can benefit by expanded growing seasons.Adams, Richard, J. David Glyer, and Bruce McCarl. "The economic effects of climate change on US agriculture: a preliminary assessment." The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States 1 (1989), NL

The postulated climatic change scenarios were predicted to increase potential growing season lengths by approximately 40 days and to compress actual growing seasons for current cultivars of corn and wheat by 0 to 80 days and 30 to 40 days, respectively (see Figure 1). Irrigators are likely to make changes in their cropping systems to take advantage of the new climate regimes. This may take the form of either growing longer season cultivars or by increasing cropping intensities. Winter wheat was selected to study the effects of substituting longer season varieties in place of current cultivars. This simulation was accomplished in the model by increasing the phenology energy units of winter wheat by 10 and 30% for the crop development and crop maturation stages, respectively. The resulting mean differences in season lengths between the current cultivars and longer season cultivar were 19 and 17 days for the GISS and GFDL models, respectively (see Figure 7). Results indicate that growing season lengths for winter wheat would still be shortened, as compared to current baseline conditions even when phenology-energy (growing degree radiation) requirements were increased by about 20%. It should be noted that some of this reduction for winter wheat was caused by the reduction in lengths of dormant periods during winter months, rather than by compression of growing periods. Seasonal irrigation water requirements for winter wehat were predicted to increase by about 8 to 33% across the region under the GISS scenario and by about 15 to 35% under the GFDL scenario as compared to baseline values when longer season varieties were used (assuming a 20% increase in value of bulk stomatal diffusion resistance). Increases in seasonal irrigation water requirement in Figure 8 for extended wheat cultivars contrast with predicted reductions in seasonal irrigation water requirements for current cultivars as shown in Figure 3. Increases in potential growing seasons and compressed season lengths for annual crops may encourage farmers to grow a second crop in regions with sufficient water supplies. This would result in increased irrigation water requirements as evidenced in the alfalfa case study.

A2: warming negatives o/w co2 agCo2 increases growing seasons for c3-c4 plants – night warming, winter warming and nitrogen fixing check warming downsidesSombroek, Wim G., Land and Water Development Division, and Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change, FAO, Rome, Italy. Gommes, Rene, Agrometeorology Group (Environmental Information Management Service), and Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change, FAO, Rome, Italy. “1. The climate change – Agriculture conundrum,” FAO Corporate Document Repository, 1996. http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5183E/w5183e03.htm, August 1st, 2016. NL

TEMPERATURE In general, higher temperatures are associated with higher radiation and higher water use. It is relatively difficult to separate the physiological effects (at the level of plants and plant organs) of temperatures from the ecological ones (at the level of the field or of the region). There are both positive and negative impacts at the two levels, and only crop- and site-specific simulation can assess the global 'net' effect of temperature increases (for details see chapter by Abrol and Ingram). It is generally agreed that: · rising temperatures - now estimated to be 0.2°C per decade, or 1 °C by 2040 (Mitchell et al., 1995) with smallest increases in the tropics (IPCC, 1992) - would diminish the yields of some crops, especially if night temperatures are increased (the temperature increase since the mid-1940s is mainly due to increasing night-time temperatures, while CO2-induced warming would result in an almost equally large rise in minimum and maximum temperatures (Kukla and Karl, 1993); · higher temperatures could have a positive effect on growth of plants of the CAM type. They would also strengthen the CO2 fertilization effect and the CO2 anti-transpirant effect of C3 and C4 plants (see Box 1.1) unless plants get overheated; · higher night temperature may increase dark respiration of plants, diminishing net biomass production; · higher cold-season temperatures may lead to earlier ripening of annual crops, diminishing yield per crop, but would allow locally for the growth of more crops per year due to lengthening of the growing season. Winter kill of pests is likely to be reduced at high latitudes, resulting in greater crop losses and higher need for pest control; · higher temperatures will allow for more plant growth at high latitudes and altitudes. COMBINED EFFECTS AND SOME UNCERTAINTIES The changes in CO2 tropospheric ozone and increased UV-B do not necessarily occur simultaneously: CO2 increase is worldwide, but with a strong seasonality in middle and higher latitudes; significant increase of UV-B is largely limited to subpolar regions (and mainly during the northern hemisphere winter months); high near-surface O3 levels are restricted to the neighbourhood of major cities, airports, etc. (Seitz, 1994) Box 1.2 illustrates some of the potential mechanisms which could account for either increased or decreased biomass under global change conditions. Note that increased biomass could even be associated with a decreased yield of grain (or sugar, oil, etc.) if one of the consequences of increased CO2 will be a redistribution of biomass among plant organs (there are indications of relative increases of root growth). The hydrological cycle and soils Even a slight increase in surface temperatures will affect evaporation, atmospheric moisture and precipitation (Figure 1.1). While it is generally agreed that rainfall will increase (by an estimated 10 to 15%), two aspects have to be elucidated: how will rainfall intensities be affected, and what are the details of spatial changes. This is still largely a matter of discussion among experts (for details see chapter by Evans). Based on palaeoclimatic analogies, certain authors predict more favourable rainfall conditions in the present-day Sahel (Petit-Maire, 1992). If the increase in precipitation should be associated with increased rainfall intensities, then the quality and quantity of soil and water resources would decline, for instance through increased runoff and erosion,

increased land degradation processes, and a higher frequency of floods and possibly droughts. However: · the extra precipitation on land, if indeed including present subhumid to semi-arid areas, will increase plant growth in these areas, leading to an improved protection of the land surface and increased rainfed agricultural production; in already humid areas the extra rainfall may, however, impair adequate crop drying and storage; · the extra precipitation predicted to occur in some regions provides possibilities for off-site extra storage in rivers, lakes and artificial reservoirs (on-farm or at subcatchment level) for the benefit of improved rural water supply and expanded or more intensive irrigated agriculture and inland fisheries: · the effects on water resources and water apportioning of international river and lake basins can be very substantial, with political overtones. Box 1.2. Some mechanisms likely to affect biomass production under global change conditions. Note that the ratio between economic yield (e.g., grain, fibre) and biomass may change relative to current conditions ETP: Evapotranspiration potential WHC: Soil water holding capacity ETA: Actual evapotranspiration OM: Organic matter WUE: Water-use efficiency LAI: Leaf area index The heavy line indicates a hypothetical link between increased humidity and cloudiness. The greatest risks are often estimated to be associated with increased soil loss through erosion. Soils, as a medium for plant growth, would be affected in several other ways (for details see chapter by Brinkman and Sombroek): · increased temperatures may lead to more decomposition of soil organic matter; · increased plant growth due to the CO2 fertilization effect may cause other plant nutrients such as N and P to become in short supply; however, CO2 increase would stimulate mycorrhizal activity (making soil phosphorus more easily available), and also biological nitrogen fixation (whether or not symbiotic). Through increased root growth there would be extra weathering of the substratum, hence a fresh supply of potassium and micronutrients; · the CO2 fertilization effect would produce more litter of higher C/N ratio, hence more organic matter for incorporation into the soil as humus; litter with high C/N decomposes slowly and this can act as a negative feedback on nutrient availability; · the 'CO2 anti-transpirant' effect would stimulate plant growth in dryland areas, and more soil protection against erosion and lower topsoil temperatures, leading to an 'anti-desertification effect'. CONCLUSIONS Global climate change, if it occurs, will definitely affect agriculture. Most mechanisms, and two-way interactions between agriculture and climate, are known, even if not always well understood. It is evident that the relationship between climate change and agriculture is still very much a matter of conjecture with many uncertainties (see also Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1993); it remains largely a conundrum. Major uncertainties affect both the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the response of agriculture, as illustrated by differences among models, especially as regards effects at the national and subregional levels. In addition, many of the models do not take into consideration CO2 fertilization and improved water-use efficiency, the effect of cloud cover (on both climate and photosynthesis), or the transient nature of climate change. It is also worth remembering that enormous knowledge gaps still affect the carbon cycle (with a missing sink of about 2 Gt of carbon), the factors behind the recent near-stabilization of the atmospheric methane concentrations or the unexplained reduced rate of CO2 increase in recent years, the effect of volcanic eruptions (such as the recent Pinatubo eruption), the effect of any increased cloudiness, etc.

Neg UQ

UQ – Prices low now

Global Food Prices continue to declineDomingo 16 (“Global food prices continue to decline” Ronnel W. Domingo, Philippine Daily Inquirer) January 9th, 2016 http://business.inquirer.net/205274/global-food-prices-continue-to-decline#ixzz4FovdtfIJ HU

Global food prices were falling for the fourth year in a row as the weakening world economy sent ripples in commodity markets, including the power and mining sectors , according to the Food and Agriculture Organization

(FAO). The FAO said in the latest update of Food Price Index report that in 2015, prices of five major food groups averaged 19 percent lower than year-ago levels. The index is trade-weighted and tracks prices of five major food commodity groups in international markets, including meat, dairy, cereals, vegetable oils and sugar. In 2015, prices of these food groups registered a full-year average of 164 points. In December alone, prices were lower than the

average at 154 points. The December average was lower than the 155.6 points recorded in November. The FAO said last month’s average eased along with falling prices of meat, dairy and cereals. The rise in prices of sugar and vegetable oils failed to push up the average. “Abundant supplies in the face of a timid world demand and an appreciating dollar are the main reason for the general weakness that dominated food prices in 2015,” FAO senior economist Abdolreza Abbassian said in a statement. Also last month, the FAO called for further measures meant to create fairer global trading conditions, particularly for developing countries, even as the World Trade Organization (WTO) decided to scrap farm export subsidies. FAO Director General José Graziano da Silva said there remained the need for a framework in which countries could balance efforts to attain national food security and development objectives without harming their trading partners. “The continued uncertainty on how to negotiate such a framework is worrying in a world in which global agricultural trade is likely to grow in importance in the coming decades as patterns of consumption and production continue to evolve,” Graziano da Silva said in a statement. “The process of opening further to trade, and its consequences, will need to be well managed if trade is to improve food security,” the FAO chief said.

Food Prices drop across the board Charlebois 16 (“Food Prices are Dropping as Retailers Scrammble to keep up with Walmart”Sylvain Charlebois is dean of the faculty of management and professor in food distribution and policy, Dalhousie University) July 26, 2016 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/food-prices-are-dropping-as-retailers-scramble-to-keep-up-with-wal-mart/article31103485/ HU

A lot of attention in the latest consumer price index report was given to falling meat prices . To the delight of

barbecue fans, beef, pork and chicken prices have actually dropped for the first time in six years . Yet meat prices aren’t the only food prices dropping. According to Statistics Canada, food prices declined in June across the board, in dramatic fashion. In fact, food inflation is now below our general inflation rate for the first time in almost two years. Food price decreases are not influenced by one category in particular. One could argue that food distributors are winning their fight against vendors to lower prices for consumers. But beneath the numbers published by Statistics Canada lies a very different – and perhaps troubling – story for Canada’s food-retailing establishment. Aside from Newfoundland and Labrador, most provinces across the country have been experiencing food price declines. Even the territories saw decreases in many food categories. June prices fell the most not in Alberta, but in Quebec and British Columbia. For both those provinces, food prices dropped by more than 0.5 per cent in just a month. Both provinces were considered the realms of high-valued food products catering to more sophisticated consumers. But market data suggest that things may be changing. Ontario has always been considered the most competitive market in the country. In recent months, the price growth in industry square footage has plateaued. The main metric has become same-store-sales and margins.

World food prices hit 7 year lowEllayatt 16 (“World food prices tumble near 7-year low” Holly Ellyatt) Thursday, 4 Feb 2016 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/world-food-prices-tumble-near-7-year-low.html HU

World food prices fell to almost a seven-year low at the start of the year on the back of sharp declines in

commodities, particularly sugar, according to the latest data from the United Nations (UN). The Food Price Index, published by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), averaged 150.4 points in January, down 16 percent from a year earlier and registering its lowest level since April 2009. The trade-weighted index tracks international market prices for five key commodity groups -- major cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar – on a monthly basis. In January, the Sugar Price Index showed the largest declines having fallen 4.1 percent from December, its first drop in four months. The FAO said the drop was down to improved crop conditions in Brazil, the world's leading sugar producer and exporter. The second largest declines were seen in the FAO's Dairy Price Index which dropped by 3.0 percent in the same time period "on the back of large supplies, in both the EU and New Zealand, and torpid world import demand," the FAO noted. The Cereals and

Vegetable Oils indices both saw declines of 1.7 percent in January from the previous month and the Meat Price Index fell 1.1 percent. The main factors underlying the lingering decline in basic food commodity prices are "the generally ample agricultural supply conditions, a slowing global economy, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar," the FAO noted. Food commodities are not the only ones suffering from demand failing to keep up with a glut in supply with oil prices suffering a similar fate with a steady decline since mid-2014. Signaling no let-up in production, the food agency raised its forecasts for worldwide cereal crops in 2016. "As a result of the upgraded production and downgraded consumption forecasts, world cereal stocks are set to end the 2016 seasons at 642 million tons, higher than they began," the agency noted.

Neg AT: turns

Warming predictions falseScientists need to relax, even their short term global warming predictions are unreliable Panagariya 2010Arvind Panagariya is Professor of Economics and Jagdish Bhagwati Professor of Indian Political Economy at the School of international and Public Affairs, Columbia University and Non- resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. http://www.columbia.edu/~ap2231/Policy%20Papers/IPF%20Panagariya%20Climate%20Change%20final%20October%201%202009.pdf Gb

China’s top climatologist has also expressed reservations on the predictions of calamities. In a recent story in the Guardian (September 17,

2009), Jonathan Watt writes, “A 2°C rise in global temperatures will not necessarily result in the calamity predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), China's most senior climatologist has told the Guardian.” Watt goes on to add,

“Despite growing evidence that storms in China are getting fiercer, droughts longer and typhoons more

deadly, Xiao Ziniu, the director general of the Beijing Climate Center, said it was too early to determine the level of risk posed by global warming.” Policy analysis is further complicated by the fact that virtually all predictions of large changes attributable to GHG emissions are back loaded. At least until 2030, no dramatic

8 impacts with or without mitigation are predicted. On the other hand, predictions beyond 2030 remain subject to revision based on what will be observed between now and 2030 in the same way that the current predictions have been greatly influenced by the events of the past 15 years. The IPCC predictions on changes in temperatures, rainfall and related natural phenomena are

derived using simulation models of the climate system. Few models in economics and meteorology consistently forecast with accuracy even over a short time horizon, let alone 100 years. Fred Pearce (2008) graphically described the uncertainty associated with the forecasts of the climate change models in an article published in the Guardian (2008). Pearce, himself no skeptic on global warming, states “Now, a sceptic might say that if the modellers are only just learning about the importance of natural cycles to climate forecasts, why should we believe their predictions at all? Fair point. In their desire to persuade us about the big picture of global

warming, scientists have sometimes got cocky about colouring in the detail. “Recently I attended a conference in Reading where some of the world's top experts discussed their failings. How their much-vaunted models of the world's climate system can't reproduce El Ninos, or the ‘blocking highs’ that bring heatwaves to Europe - or even the ice ages. How their statistical mimics of tropical climate are ‘laughable’, in the words of the official report. “This sudden humility was not unconnected with their end-of-conference call for the world to spend a billion dollars on a global centre for climate modelling. A ‘Manhattan project for the 21st century’, as someone put it.

9 “Even so, scientists are concerned that many of their predictions about how climate change will play out in different parts of the world are little better than guesses. But whatever the local wrinkles and whatever natural cycles may intervene, man-made global warming is real, current and matters a great deal.” Suppose we take the IPCC predictions of global warming and the associated natural phenomena at face value. Even then the formulation of well-informed mitigation policy over a time horizon extending all the way to the end of the 21st century requires predictions of innovations of clean technologies and green sources of energy. As the information technology revolution that swept the world in the 1990s and beyond illustrates, such predictions are highly uncertain as well.

Neg AT: Co2

Co2=/= warmingThere is not a certain correlation between co2 increase and average temperature Hertzberg and Schreuder ‘16 Dr Hertzberg is an internationally recognized expert on combustion, flames, explosions, and fire research with over 100 publications in those areas. Hans Schreuder trained as an analytical chemist in The Hague and has long been a highly regarded critic of the greenhouse gas theory. http://www.tech-know-group.com/papers/Reassessing_CO2_climate_role.pdf gb

The issue of whether the origin of recent CO2 increase is principally natural or man-made is important for the veracity of the IPCC paradigm.

The implications of the Vostok data, plus the recent OCO-2 satellite measurements (Fig. 2), show that the current sources of CO2 are overwhelmingly natural. They do not correlate well with the proclaimed IPCC paradigm.3 Figure 2: Satellite data from OCO-2 showing CO2 concentrations across the globe DATA TO SUPPORT THE UN IPCC PARADIGM Published data

that might appear to support the conclusion that human CO2 emissions have caused a modest increase in the average temperature of the Earth is shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Average temperatures plotted against atmospheric CO2 levels The average monthly surface air temperature anomaly as measured by the National Climatic Data Center is shown in blue and the atmospheric CO2 concentration in red. CO2 concentrations are the average monthly values measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The dashed gray line indicates the approximate linear trend. The boxes at the bottom of the chart indicate whether a temperature trend is positive or negative relative to the CO2 trend. The data is taken from Ole Humlum's “climate4you” website. [2] The temperature data are shown as “anomalies” - that is, as differences in the actual temperatures from their average value base for an extended period of time. Note the anomaly values vary by about 1°C at most, whereas actual temperatures vary by as much as 50°C, reflecting their seasonal or diurnal variations at a given station.

4 The CO2 data show a continuous increase from 1958 onward, whereas the temperature trend is downward between 1958 and 1978 (a negative correlation). Between 1978 and 2003, both temperature and CO2 trend upward (a positive correlation). From 2003 to 2010 the temperature trend is flat (a “pause” with no correlation) and 2010 to the present is again positive with the

El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean being a possible influence. The entire period could end up flat, as happened after the previous El Nino event in 1998. Over the same time-span human global emissions of CO2 show a general increase from 2.5 billion metric tons in 1958 to

about 10 billion metric tons currently. This generally positive correlation between atmospheric CO2 increase and the increase in human CO2 emissions may prompt one to conclude that human emissions cause a CO2 increase and,

concomitantly, cause temperatures to rise. Such a conclusion is, however, contradicted by the negative correlation between temperature and CO2 during the period 1958-1978 and the “pause” from 2003 to 2010. That a parallel between anthropogenic emissions on the one hand and increased CO2 and higher temperatures on the other, constitutes a causal relationship as the IPCC asserts, is questionable. For, while a parallelism between two separate quantities does not prove that the two are causally related, the lack of parallelism proves that they are not causally related. From 1958 to 1978 the average global temperature dropped some 0.25°C while human emission of CO2 from fossil fuels tripled. This CO2 emission did not contribute to global warming over that period - eliciting suggestions of a coming ice age. Data from 1910 to 1940 indicate a similar increase in temperature as for 1970 to 2000 despite fossil fuel production at that time being around five times lower than it is today! In 1929 the production of fossil fuels was 1.17 Gigatons of carbon per year. Following the stock market crash and the depression, human production decreased to 0.88 Gigatons per year — a 30% drop. Yet during that same period both atmospheric CO2 and temperature continued to rise at around the same rate as before and in 1934 the “dust bowl” began when temperatures climbed higher than they have been since.