AFF October 2013 poll memo

7/27/2019 AFF October 2013 poll memo

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Introduction

Dane & Associates was contacted and requested to conduct a survey in Pennsylvania.

The nature of the survey is to determine the vulnerability of moderate to left leaning

Republicans in the state. Questions were determined, based on voting records, and

issues that face the legislature.

About Dane & Associates

Dane & Associates has been in existence since 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, NV.

We have conducted thousands of polls and surveys since our inception. We pride

ourselves on our accuracy. Over the years Dane & Associates has developed

proprietary algorithms and analyzed data allowing for more accurate results. Dane &

Associates conducts Issue Surveys, Candidate Polling and Exit Polling. Our results

have proven to be exceptionally accurate and exceed the industry average by a

significant amount.

Survey Summary

The nature of this survey is to determine the vulnerability of moderate to left leaning

Republicans in Pennsylvania. First we must determine the mindset of voters, to see if

they are supportive of the voting record by their State Senator. For accuracy we

targeted only counties with a Republican Voting Population no less than 40%. Targeted

counties can be viewed in Addendum A. This data can be reformulated into State

Senate Districts, then matched to the voting record of each State Senator.

Methodology

Data for Dane & Associates survey research is collected using an automated pollingmethodology.

AFF Republican Survey

Phone:7024760880

Fax:7026640934



Throughout the years this automated survey process has proven to be more accuratethan live operators. Our process is similar to that of firms who use live operators. Thekey difference is that automated survey systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voiceto conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, andoperator-assisted technology. This gives automated survey’s a more consistentinterview taking out any bias that may be heard by a live interviewer.

Dane & Associates selects any data that meets the criteria of the district beingsurveyed. Then we generate a file by selecting the data at random to be called. After we complete the number of interviews necessary to achieve the desired margin of error,the data is checked to ensure all demographic quotas are met. To ensure higher participation in our survey’s, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during theweek. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time. Dane & Associatesrecommends that no calls are placed on Sunday. We’ve determined that due to Sundayschedules it is difficult to obtain statistical accuracy. In areas that have a heavy Jewishpopulation we refrain from calling from sundown on Friday to sundown on Saturday.

Data

The data for this file was first determined by gaining access to the Pennsylvania Statevoter file . All counties were analyzed to determine the subject counties. Each countywas further analyzed based on the voter file to determine demographic information,

(including Sex, Age, Party Affiliation) For the purpose of this survey, only pureRepublican Households were selected. For a higher rate of accuracy we only calledvoters who have a 70% or better voter propensity1. Dane & Associates then weighsthe data through its proprietary system that accurately samples the data based on thedemographics of the district.

Survey Questions

Question 1:

Are you more likely or less likely to support your Republican State Senator if he or she

voted for ObamaCare via Medicaid expansion; voted to impose the highest gas tax in

the country, and failed to support free market principles to privatize liquor sales and

distribution in Pennsylvania?

Voterpropensityisdeterminedbythenumberof timessomeoneiseligibletovotecomparedtothenumberof

timestheyactuallyvote.Thisismoreaccuratethanthetraditionalwayof selecting3outof 5voters.Whenyou

usethetraditionalmethodyoumissvoterswhohasbeeneligibleforlessthan3electionscyclesbutconstantly

voted.



NOTE: Grouping these three questions together would better determine the views of the

subject taking the survey. For them not to support the State Senator, they would have

agreed with all 3 issues. By creating this higher standard, data should give the best

results as related to the conservative views of the subject.

Response 1:

More likely to support their State Senator: 13%Less likely to support their State Senator: 67%Those not familiar with the issue: 10%Undecided 10%

Question 2:

If your Republican Senator voted to expand ObamaCare via Medicaid expansion, enactthe largest gas tax in the country, and failed to privatize liquor sales and distribution in

Pennsylvania would you?

1. Still vote for the Senator because holding majority is more important than a single

issue.

2. Support a primary opponent against the Senator.

Response 2:

Still support the State Senator: 18%

Support a primary Opponent: 82%

Conclusion

Dane & Associates completed 1282 samples, and has met the demographic criteria

within an acceptable range. Through our mathematical calculation this survey is

determined to have a margin of error of +/- 2.25%

Documents

AFF October 2013 poll memo