***Aff. & Advantage – Extensions***

Aquaculture

Aquaculture Good – Food security / hunger

Aquaculture can be an important part of food securityMark Gunther, Staff Writer, March 11, 2015, “Sparking sustainable aquaculture,” http://www.marcgunther.com/sparking-sustainable-aquaculture/, ACC. 4-28-2015Yet aquaculture, done right, can be an important source of produce healthy protein. Aquaculture today provides almost half of all fish that humans eat. Its share is projected to rise to 62 percent by 2030 as catches from wild capture fisheries level off and an emerging global middle class demands more fish, according to the FAO. “If responsibly developed and practised, aquaculture can generate lasting benefits for global food security and economic growth,” the UN organization says in a recent report.

Food insecurity and hunger are best addressed by aquacultureWorldWide Aquaculture, Staff Writer, April 11, 2015, “Aquaculture: The Future of Global Food Security,” http://worldwideaquaculture.com/aquaculture-the-future-of-global-food-security/, ACC. 4-29-2015Aquaculture can address the huge demand for fish based protein around the world. It could also address issues related to food insecurities, which are often associated with poverty and lower income population. Aquaculture systems can be used to grow food indoors or in commercial sectors and community farms, that not only produces high quality food, but also improves the community environment, supplies fresh food, and provides food security.

Aquaculture is essential to international food securityHareth Al Bustani, Staff Writer, April 9, 2015, “Fish farms to feed the planet,” The National, http://www.thenational.ae/uae/environment/fish-farms-to-feed-the-planet, ACC. 4-29-2015A billion people depend on fish for protein, and global consumption is soaring despite the world’s oceans being on the brink of collapse. But aquaculture now produces half of our supply, although challenges remain. With one in nine people suffering from chronic malnourishment, which kills three million children every year, aquaculture is fast becoming a vital cog in the international food security machine. The young industry is the fastest-growing food production sector, producing half the global fish supply – while replacing unsustainable fishing methods with farming.

Aquaculture Good – Reduces overfishing

Only aquaculture can supply fish as an alternative to overfishingShelby Kinney-Lang, Staff Writer, February 16, 2015, “Making Fish Farming Appetizing,” Ecological Aquaculturehttp://ecologicalaquaculture.org/welcome/2015/03/07/making-fish-farming-appetizing/, ACC. 4-29-2015There’s a certain appeal to fish farming, also known as aquaculture. Growing aquatic life in offshore pens, rivers, or big, terrestrial tanks seems not only audacious, but as convenient as, well, shooting fish in a barrel. Already, aquaculture accounts for nearly 50 percent of the worldwide fish supply, and it’s growing faster than any other type of food production. Farm-raised seafood will soon jump to 62 percent of global fish served on a plate or bought in a supermarket by 2030, a 500 percent growth rate over 20 years, according to the USDA. At a time when 85 percent of marine life is overexploited and overfished, aquaculture seems like a viable alternative.

Aquaculture is essential alternative to overfishingWorldWide Aquaculture, Staff Writer, April 11, 2015, “Aquaculture: The Future of Global Food Security,” http://worldwideaquaculture.com/aquaculture-the-future-of-global-food-security/, ACC. 4-29-2015The demand for food is increasing around the world but our resources are limited. Aquaculture could play a major role in producing enough food for everyone and put an end to world hunger and secure food supplies for the future. Fish is a major source of protein around the world. It is estimated that the demand for seafood around the world is over 160 million metric tons per year and rising. Our oceans are already overfished and have reached their limits for sustainable fishing. To meet the future demands of seafood, aquaculture will play an important role.

Aquaculture Good – Seafood supplies low now

Seafood supplies are low in the Gulf from multiple causesJacob Batte & Aaren Gordon, Staff Writers, April 20, 2015, “Seafood industry stable but struggling,” Houma Today, http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20150420/ARTICLES/150429997, ACC. 4-29-2015Before the spill, business was great, and though they were relatively fortunate in the years following, the market has turned itself upside down. Quantity is down, but prices are shooting up, and local fishermen and seafood companies point to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion, which killed 11 people and dumped more than 170 million gallons of oil into the Gulf for nearly three months, as the primary reason for the significant shift. State figures show production is down by half or more since before the spill. Several other factors, including freshwater diversion projects and a drop in the number fisherman, have contributed to the decline, but many locals still place a hefty portion of the blame on BP.

The Gulf may have recovered, but we still have supply shortagesLaine Kaplan-Levenson, Staff Writer, April 9, 2015, “After oil spill, Gulf seafood industry is recovering,” Marketplace, http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/after-oil-spill-gulf-seafood-industry-recovering, ACC. 4-29-2015Five years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster spilled millions of barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, Ketchum says the reputation of Gulf seafood is back, with the help of QR codes — those square barcodes that look like static-y TV screens. Looking at a bag of frozen shrimp, Ketchum describes the process. "On the back of each bag of product is a QR code, it's right by our UPC code, and the shopper can scan this code with their smart phone and it will pull up a map of where this product was harvested from." The more you know exactly where something comes from, Ketchum says, the more you trust it. "If you look where the oil spill was, and look at the questions people had, you knew there was a disconnect between what products were caught where. I had someone ask me if crawfish and catfish were affected. Those two items weren't harvested in the Gulf!" They're freshwater species. So people trust the seafood again, but now there's a new problem: Supply. Restaurants can change menus when an order falls through. But for Ketchum's big box clients like Target and Costco, that doesn't fly.

Citizen Scientists

Citizen Scientists – Provide essential data

Citizen scientists can provide crucial data to improve data collection and management Rebecca M. Jarvis, Institute for Applied Ecology New Zealand, School of Applied Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, NZ, Et al., 2015, “Citizen science and the power of public participation in marine spatial planning,” Marine Policy, v.57 (2015) 21–26.Citizen science is becoming increasingly prevalent in terrestrial monitoring programs, with voluntary observations from the public used to inform academic and environmental research. Citizen science engages millions of people around the world, contributing valuable information that can be used by researchers, practitioners, planners and the public. However, despite its successes, citizen science is not widely accepted as a valid scientific method due to concerns about data quality. Much of this scepticism relates to potential biases in survey effort, errors in records, issues of scale, and inconsistencies over time. To counter these issues, new technologies are being developed to improve data collection, management and quality control. For example, a new statistical technique has been developed to identify signals of change in noisy ecological data collected by citizen scientists. Studies have demonstrated that data collected by citizen scientists can be of equal quality to data collected by experienced researchers, provided that citizen scientists are given proper training and appropriate protocols are used. Environmental agencies are increasingly using citizen science to overcome limitations of time and resources for data collection. By crowdsourcing data collection, citizen science can provide fine-resolution environmental information over large geographic regions that would be difficult to achieve otherwise.

Citizen scientists raise ecological awareness and collect essential dataMichael Bear, Citizen Science Project Director for Ocean Sanctuaries, April 3, 2015, “'Marine Science Today' Guest Blog: Ocean Sanctuaries’ Citizen Science Programs,” Ocean Spaces, http://marinesciencetoday.com/2015/04/03/ocean-sanctuaries-citizen-science-programs/#ixzz3WMr35EKY, ACC. 4-25-2015At Ocean Sanctuaries, we believe that the field of citizen science has finally come into its own in the 21st Century. With more and more divers and non-divers alike becoming aware of the critical state of both the oceans and even the planet itself, now is the time for citizen scientists to assist in the collection of scientific data in a scientifically sound manner, so that ocean managers can begin to assess what needs to be done to prevent further damage to the oceans.

Integrating citizen scientists reduces costs and provides essential data for sound ocean managementJessica L. Williams, James Cook University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Townsville, Australia, Et. al., 2015, “Effectiveness of recreational divers for monitoring sea turtle populations,” Endangered Species Research, Vol. 26: 209–219.An increasing number of research programmes incorporate non-specialist members of the public as ‘citizen scientists’, both as an educational tool and as a cost-effective monitoring strategy. In the marine realm, volunteer recreational divers have been involved in collection of data for biodiversity assessments and coral reef fish and flora abundance surveys. In addition to these broadly scoped programmes, volunteer divers are also involved in focal species programmes focused on seahorses, sea turtles and elasmobranchs. Although such data collection programmes are generally designed to test specific hypotheses or undertake routine monitoring, a key tenet is that participants are not required to

have formal training in scientific survey techniques. By accepting the limitations of such a tenet, the overwhelmingly appealing aspects of adopting a citizen science programme can be realised. Such benefits include low cost and a potentially large unpaid workforce, allowing for monitoring over large geographic areas or temporal periods. Additionally, citizen science programmes can be used as education and outreach tools to promote conservation objectives and even to engage potential funders or fund specialist research projects. Success of citizen science projects as measured through their outputs or scientific applications has been varied, but has increased over time.

Citizen Scientists – Shark monitoring

Citizen scientists have experience in shark monitoringMichael Bear, Citizen Science Project Director for Ocean Sanctuaries, April 3, 2015, “'Marine Science Today' Guest Blog: Ocean Sanctuaries’ Citizen Science Programs,” Ocean Spaces, http://marinesciencetoday.com/2015/04/03/ocean-sanctuaries-citizen-science-programs/#ixzz3WMr35EKY, ACC. 4-25-2015In March of 2014, we established Ocean Sanctuaries as San Diego’s first ocean-related non-profit devoted almost exclusively to citizen science. There are many fine ocean non-profits in existence, but not too many specifically devoted to marine citizen science projects. Our shark programs began in 2009, with the Sevengill Shark ID Project, which began as a citizen science population dynamics study of the Sevengill shark in the San Diego area. Local divers began submitting video and stills from their GoPro cameras and it has snowballed into a serious scientific study, which has caught the attention of shark researchers, using the pattern recognition algorithms contained in a software program called ‘Wildbook.’ The architect of ‘Wildbook’ is Jason Holmberg, who originally developed it for use in identifying Whale Sharks, and is now working with Ocean Sanctuaries to customize the pattern recognition algorithm for use with Sevengill sharks, which have a unique freckling pattern or ‘fingerprint’ that can be used to identify individual animals in high definition photographs and video.

Scientists need citizens scientists to collect data on sharksPhoebe Baldwin, Staff Writer, April 15, 2015, “Citizen scientists help shark conservation,” Australian Geographic, http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2015/04/citizen-scientists-help-shark-conservation, ACC. 4-25-2015Citizen science is becoming a popular way for researchers to get help with collecting and analysing data, and nearly everyone has access to a computer, smartphone or digital camera, which can be used to record data about wildlife encounters. Finding sharks can be very time-consuming for scientists, says Dr. Ryan Kempster, UWA shark biologist and founder of SOS. “Through SharkBase, we now have a place to bring all of these sightings together, to be used by scientists, to better understand the distribution and population structure of sharks around the world,” he says. It is also possible to contribute without directly encountering sharks, by submitting sightings from the news or internet. By using non-invasive methods to collect data, SharkBase aims to minimise potentially harmful data collection methods, such as tagging.

Effective shark management can be augmented by utilizing citizen scientistsDavid Stacey, Staff Writer, April 8, 2015, “Shark researchers enlist the help of the public as citizen scientists,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2015-04-shark-citizen-scientists.html, ACC. 4-25-2015"Through SharkBase, we now have a place to bring all of these sightings together, to be used by scientists, to better understand the distribution and population structure of sharks around the world," Dr Kempster said. "Effective management of sharks starts with an understanding of their population status, which will ultimately instruct their future conservation. "Unfortunately, many shark species are at significant risk of unrecoverable decline, with some species having declined to near extinction in recent years. We believe that Citizen Science could hold the key to improving our understanding and management of shark populations , whilst also advancing community education."

Citizen scientists are crucial to management and prevent shark extinctionsPhoebe Baldwin, Staff Writer, April 15, 2015, “Citizen scientists help shark conservation,” Australian Geographic, http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2015/04/citizen-scientists-help-shark-conservation, ACC. 4-25-2015Sharks are important keystone species in ocean ecosystems. Despite this, an average of 100 million are killed by people each year, and many species are on the brink of extinction. “Unfortunately, many sharks are at significant risk of unrecoverable decline, with some species having declined to near extinction... We believe that citizen science could hold the key to improving our understanding and management of shark populations, whilst also advancing community education,” Ryan says.

Drilling Bad

High risk of oil spills

Atlantic drilling increases the risk of a major spill that would cost the economy $5 billion and 91,000 jobs in Virginia aloneGerald E. Connolly, Staff Writer, March 20, 2015, “Offshore drilling is too risky,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ opinions/offshore-drilling-in-virginia-is-too-risky/2015/03/20/8542db58-c2ab-11e4-9ec2-b418f57a4a99_story.html, ACC. 5-1-2015Beyond the defense-related implications from drilling, we cannot minimize the economic impact of an oil spill on Virginia’s important tourism, recreation and fishing industries. Last year, more than 2.1 million people visited our coastal barrier islands, while another 2.7 million visited Virginia Beach. Commercial fishing, tourism and recreation support more than 91,000 jobs and generate nearly $5 billion in economic output in Virginia. Since the Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, Congress has failed to strengthen regulations on offshore drilling. Why would we risk such an incident, which would wreak havoc on Virginia’s coastal economy, for only a few months’ worth of our nation’s energy supply? To visualize the impact: The BP oil spill, superimposed on our regional map, would stretch from Dale City, in Prince William County, to New York City, despoiling much of the Mid-Atlantic coast. President Obama has forged a lasting legacy of conservation and environmental protection by prohibiting drilling on millions of acres of land and coastal waters in Alaska, as well as creating 11 new national monuments across the country. That is why it is so hard to fathom why the administration has ignored clear economic and environmental justification to exclude the Atlantic OCS from offshore exploration.

New drilling and spills are inevitable. Federal oversight does not solveSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, April 13, 2015, “Deep Sea Drilling Rules and the Transition from Fossil Fuels,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/deep-sea-drilling-rules-a_b_7053966.html, ACC. 5-1-2015While the situation has improved under the Obama Administration, it is unlikely that the resource-starved federal government has the technical and organizational capacity to keep up with technological advances in the deep sea drilling industry. The expansion of drilling anticipated by the Administration, and the memory of the Deepwater Horizon explosion, will provide a fig leaf of political cover for the new rules--but the new rules are not enough. The additional drilling will increase the probability of catastrophic spills like the one that took place five years ago.

The BP spill shows that regulatory rationality will failRebecca Leber, Staff Writer, April 19, 2015, “Five Years After the Deepwater Horizon Disaster, Is Offshore Drilling Any Safer?,” New Republic, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121582/bp-deepwater-horizon-anniversary-offshore-drilling-barely-safer, ACC. 5-1-2015Deans, a co-author of a book examining the impact of the BP disaster, said these numbers show that “we can reduce the risk, but we can’t make [offshore drilling] safe.” “The BP blowout was result of a long train of misjudgment and miscalculation,” Deans said. A combination of regulations and volunteer measures implemented since the accident has improved certain operations—like a recent rule requiring better maintenance of blow-out preventers. But regulators have tackled only a fraction of the problems exposed by the BP accident, such as poor oversight, maintenance, and well design.

OCS drilling bad – Navy DA links

Atlantic OCS drilling would significantly undermine the Navy and NASA, while crushing Virginia’s economyGerald E. Connolly, D-Virginia, 11th Congressional District in the House, March 20, 2015, “Offshore drilling is too risky,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ opinions/offshore-drilling-in-virginia-is-too-risky/2015/03/20/8542db58-c2ab-11e4-9ec2-b418f57a4a99_story.html, ACC. 5-1-2015Allowing drilling on the Atlantic OCS would threaten the massive Defense Department presence in the Hampton Roads region, home to the world’s largest naval station and an array of other Navy and Defense Dept. bases, facilities and private-sector partners. Defense-related activities and spending help drive Virginia’s economy , accounting for 41 percent of Hampton Roads’s economy, 40 percent of its jobs and more than $35 billion in gross regional product. The Navy and NASA have said repeatedly that Atlantic OCS drilling could significantly affect their training and testing activities in support of national security and strategic interests. A May 2010 Defense Department report found that nearly 80 percent of the proposed lease area off Virginia’s coast would interfere with Navy training and operations . Virginia’s congressional delegation and state leaders have worked hard to expand the Navy’s operations in Hampton Roads. Making the waters off the coast inhospitable to critical naval operations would torpedo those efforts.

Drilling Bad – Safety / deaths

Offshore drilling accidents are increasing. People dieRebecca Leber, Staff Writer, April 19, 2015, “Five Years After the Deepwater Horizon Disaster, Is Offshore Drilling Any Safer?,” New Republic, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121582/bp-deepwater-horizon-anniversary-offshore-drilling-barely-safer, ACC. 5-1-2015Both the oil industry and U.S. regulators point to data showing that accidents (meaning deaths, injuries, spills, and explosions) have dropped 14 percent from 2009 to 2014. But overall offshore drilling production was down almost 20 percent in 2014 compared to 2009. Since overall production decreased—due to a moratorium on deep water drilling and companies shifting resources to fracking on land—accidents should have decreased, too. But accidents per well have increased, according to Bob Deans, director of strategic engagement for the Natural Resources Defense Council. For each producing well, accidents were up 7 percent in 2014 compared to 2009. Since 2011, 11 offshore workers have died.

Marine Reserves / MPAs

Marine Reserves Good - Improve biodiversity

Reserves are essential to ensuring ocean diversity and life on EarthCallum Roberts, PhD, 2000 Pew Marine Fellow, marine conservation biologist and senior lecturer in the Environment Department at the University of York, March 19, 2015, “Establishing the National Parks of the Sea,” Pew Trusts, http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/about/news-room/news/2015/03/19/establishing-the-national-parks-of-the-sea, ACC. 4-29-2015In March 2015, the United Kingdom committed to create the world’s largest fully protected marine reserve in the remote waters surrounding the Pitcairn Islands in the South Pacific Ocean. Callum Roberts, a Pew marine fellow, professor at the University of York, and leading expert on the science of marine reserves, and dozens of other scientists from around the world support designations such as this because they know from research that marine protected areas benefit ecosystems. “There is growing recognition of the oceans' essential role in sustaining life on the planet,” Roberts said. “Mounting scientific evidence shows that large marine protected areas, like Pitcairn’s, are critical for ensuring the diversity and sustainability of oceans, as well as reversing decline.”

International studies confirm the value of marine reserves in protecting ocean habitatsQueensland Government, Department of National Parks, Sport and Racing, March 20, 2015, “Why marine reserves are important,” http://www.nprsr.qld.gov.au/parks/moreton-bay/zoning/information-sheets/why_marine_reserves_are_important.html, ACC. 4-29-2015International studies show that marine reserves are most effective when they are established in interconnected networks. Networks are effective because the majority of organisms freely move and interact between different areas in the marine environment. For example, larvae, eggs and adult marine life tend to move with the currents and coastal waters depending on oceanographic conditions. Networks of marine reserves protect marine populations throughout their diverse life cycles and protect the habitats that support them.

Research from around the world proves reserves protect biodiversityQueensland Government, Department of National Parks, Sport and Racing, March 20, 2015, “Why marine reserves are important,” http://www.nprsr.qld.gov.au/parks/moreton-bay/zoning/information-sheets/why_marine_reserves_are_important.html, ACC. 4-29-2015Marine reserves are important for preserving the biological diversity ('biodiversity') of marine areas. They protect rare and threatened species, important natural habitats and provide benefits for fisheries species. Scientific research from around the world supports the concept that marine reserves are one of the best ways of protecting marine biodiversity. This sounds good in theory, but why are marine reserves important in Moreton Bay Marine Park?

Marine Reserves Good – Fish stocks / Fishing industry

Reserves can increase fish stocks up to 8-foldMatt Ridley, Genetics Researcher, April 01, 2015, “How to save the oceans,” Rational Optimist, http://www.rationaloptimist.com/ blog/how-to-save-the-oceans.aspx, ACC. 4-29-2015We know that marine reserves work: examples from New Zealand, Florida, Chile and elsewhere show dramatic results. A scallop no-take reserve in Lamlash Bay off the Isle of Arran has increased the number and size of scallops inside the reserve and nearby. At Cabo Pulmo on the Mexican coast, where a no-fishing reserve was established in 1995, there has been an explosion in the number of fish, including an eleven-fold increase in large predators such as groupers and sharks: it’s a glimpse of what oceans could look like. It is not too late. The restoration of the oceans can happen. Most populations of great whales — blues, sperm, humpback, fin, right, bowhead — are now growing by up to 8 per cent a year. Antarctic penguins and seals are rebuilding their populations.

Spillover means fishers would massively benefit from marine reservesCallum M. Roberts, PhD., University of York, UK, 2015, “Marine Reserves are for Fishermen,” Soufriere Marine Management Area (SMMA), http://www.smma.org.lc/roberts/, ACC. 4-29-2015As fish stocks in reserves grow they benefit fishermen in a second way: spillover. Fish move from the more crowded reserve into fishing grounds nearby where they can be caught. Throughout the world, wherever reserves have been created, fishermen enjoy higher catches close to reserve boundaries. In Soufriere some of the best catches are made close to the Anse Chastanet reserve, an area which has been closed to fishing for several years.

(MSP) Marine Spatial Planning

Lack of MSP destroys oceans

Ocean utilization is marked by a lack of governance and ecosystem-based management. The lack of marine spatial planning is destroying ocean environmentsCharles N. Ehler, President, Ocean Visions Consulting, 2015, “Marine spatial planning: An Idea whose time has come,” Ocean Energy Systems, http://www.ocean-energy-systems.org/library/in-depth-articles/document/marine-spatial-planning-an-idea-whose-time-has-come/, ACC. 4-25-2015Before the last century, the oceans were used mainly for two purposes: marine transportation and fishing. Conflicts between uses were few and far between, except around some ports. Fisheries were managed separately from oil and gas development, which in turn was managed separately from marine navigation, despite real conflicts between and among these uses. Single-sector management has often failed to resolve conflicts among users of marine space, rarely dealing explicitly with trade-offs among uses, and even more rarely dealing with conflicts between the cumulative effects of multiple uses and the marine environment. New uses of marine areas, including wind energy, ocean energy, offshore aquaculture, and marine tourism, as well as the demand for new marine protected areas, have only exacerbated the situation. Single-sector management has also tended to reduce and dissipate the effect of enforcement at sea because of the scope and geographic coverage involved and the environmental conditions, in which monitoring and enforcement have to operate. In sharp contrast to the land, little “public policing” of human activities takes place at sea. As a consequence, marine ecosystems around the world are in trouble. Both the severity and scale of impact on marine ecosystems from overfishing, habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution, invasive species and climate change are increasing, with virtually no corner of the world left untouched. Awareness is growing that the ongoing degradation in marine ecosystems is, in large part, a failure of governance. Many scientists and policy analysts have advocated reforms centred on the idea of “ecosystem based management” (EBM). To date, however, a practical method for translating this concept into operational management practice has not emerged. One step in that direction is the increasing worldwide interest in “marine spatial planning”.

Integrated planning requires marine spatial planning to protect ecosystemsCharles N. Ehler, President, Ocean Visions Consulting, 2015, “Marine spatial planning: An Idea whose time has come,” Ocean Energy Systems, http://www.ocean-energy-systems.org/library/in-depth-articles/document/marine-spatial-planning-an-idea-whose-time-has-come/, ACC. 4-25-2015By contrast, marine spatial planning is a future-oriented process. It offers a way to address both these types of conflict and select appropriate management measures to maintain and safeguard necessary ecosystem services. MSP focuses on the human use of marine spaces and places. It is the missing piece that can lead to truly integrated planning from coastal watersheds to marine ecosystems.

MSP Good – Key to energy sector

Marine conflicts are inevitable. Marine spatial planning is crucial to the ocean energy sectorCharles N. Ehler, President, Ocean Visions Consulting, 2015, “Marine spatial planning: An Idea whose time has come,” Ocean Energy Systems, http://www.ocean-energy-systems.org/library/in-depth-articles/document/marine-spatial-planning-an-idea-whose-time-has-come/, ACC. 4-25-2015While ocean energy has not been a principal driver of MSP so far, the situation is likely to change over the next two decades. Since ocean energy projects may take up significant areas of local ocean space, it is likely to compete with other purposes for the same space, including other human uses and areas reserved for nature conservation. The possible impacts of ocean energy on other uses, such as marine transport, offshore aquaculture, fishing, and recreation, will depend on the location of ocean energy infrastructure. Certainly over the next decade, MSP will be up and running in the marine areas of most countries. Early and continuing engagement with these emergent MSP processes will certainly benefit the ocean energy sector.

MSP should incorporate citizen scientists

Marine spatial planning can uniquely informs policy decisions, but should incorporate public participationRebecca M. Jarvis, Institute for Applied Ecology New Zealand, School of Applied Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, NZ, Et al., 2015, “Citizen science and the power of public participation in marine spatial planning,” Marine Policy, v.57 (2015) 21–26.Marine spatial planning (MSP) is increasingly used to identify objectives for the sustainable management of marine and coastal ecosystems. MSP incorporates ecological, economic and social data to mitigate human impact on the marine environment and to inform decision-making. Marine users are an important source of information on local environmental conditions, and stakeholder engagement is thus considered crucial for the effective design and implementation of MSP. However, while it is common for MSP processes to advocate stakeholder engagement, many resort to a topdown, or deficit model, of consultation. Few MSP processes encourage participation through a two-way exchange of information, and new methods are needed to account for different types of local knowledge. As a result, there has been a recent call to rethink MSP processes to encourage public participation and incorporate local environmental knowledge in MSP.

Citizen science can provide invaluable data for marine spatial planningRebecca M. Jarvis, Institute for Applied Ecology New Zealand, School of Applied Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, NZ, Et al., 2015, “Citizen science and the power of public participation in marine spatial planning,” Marine Policy, v.57 (2015) 21–26.While increasingly used in terrestrial monitoring programs, there has been a lack of uptake of citizen science in MSP to date. By crowdsourcing data collection, citizen science provides fine-scale environmental data across a marine planning region, overcoming the limitations of time and resources usually faced by decision makers and environmental agencies. Citizen science can also be used to enhance public participation in MSP by broadening engagement and inclusion in environmental research and monitoring. Hotspots identified across thousands of citizen science observations identified trends in environmental health that would be difficult to achieve by other methods. Understanding where environmental assessments converge or diverge from citizen science observations is of value to planners in the region, and to future research and management efforts. Further, incorporating diverse local environmental knowledge through public participation fulfils multiple ecological and social objectives of MSP management. The study also contributed to developing a supportive and cooperative space for the public to become involved in research that contributes knowledge useful to the MSP being developed in the region. By incorporating local knowledge in to the spatial plan, citizen science can make an important contribution to increasing awareness, inclusion and management of the Hauraki Gulf Marine Park.

Ocean Energy (general)

Ocean energy reduces fossil fuels / CO2

Increasing use of ocean energy resources reduces fossil fuels and CO2 emissionsAna Brito e Melo and José Luis Villate, Editors and The Executive Committee of Ocean Energy Systems, 2015, Annual Report: Implementing agreement on ocean energy systems 2014, http://report2014.ocean-energy-systems.org/documents/OES-Annual-Report-2014/, ACC. 4-25-2015Utilization of ocean energy resources will contribute to the world’s future sustainable energy supply. Ocean energy will supply electricity, drinking water and other products at competitive prices, creating jobs and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. It will reduce the world energy sector’s carbon emissions, whilst minimizing impacts on marine environments.

We should take greater advantage of ocean resources for energyWilliam Steel, Staff Writer, April 4, 2015, “What about marine energy?,” http://phlebas.co/2015/04/04/what-about-marine-energy/, ACC. 4-28-2015The oceans cover some 72% of our planet. We need not look further than the constant ebb and flow of tides to recognise that there’s an enormous amount of energy locked up in our oceans. Tides, waves, currents and thermal dynamics of oceans represent energy dense resources yet to be harnessed. And that’s the thing – we’re really no where even close to capitalising on the energy stored in the waters of our planet’s oceans. It is perhaps an irony – after all, humankind has always sought proximity to the sea. Oceans have provided bountiful harvests, means for sanitation, and ways of transport. In more recent times, since the industrial revolution our reliance on placing cities and towns close to sources of water was necessitated by the role of water in industrial techniques.

Ocean energy sources spill over

Expanding the ocean energy sector spills over to other sectors Ana Brito e Melo and José Luis Villate, Editors and The Executive Committee of Ocean Energy Systems, 2015, Annual Report: Implementing agreement on ocean energy systems 2014, http://report2014.ocean-energy-systems.org/documents/OES-Annual-Report-2014/, ACC. 4-25-2015Future development of the ocean energy sector will be linked with developments in other sectors, such as offshore wind energy, exploiting positive synergies in technology developments (e.g., components), infrastructure, supply chain and policies. There will be significant opportunities for co-location of technologies; for example, ocean energy and offshore wind energy, utilizing common platforms or wave/ wave or wind/tidal hybrid systems. Mutual learning processes, shared infrastructure and innovations from a shared supply chain will be of great benefit to the future expansion of both the ocean energy sector and related sectors.

Renewables

Wave & Tidal Power Good – Most advanced

Tidal and wave power are the most developed ocean renewablesWilliam Steel, Staff Writer, April 4, 2015, “What about marine energy?,” http://phlebas.co/2015/04/04/what-about-marine-energy/, ACC. 4-28-2015Taken together, tidal and wave power are the more further developed of marine energy technologies. This is largely because the technology is similar to wind power – kinetic energy of water is akin to the kinetic energy of wind, and both may be harnessed through rotor blade techniques. Water, being some 832 times denser than air, contains far greater amounts of energy than wind. This is advantages as it means energy may harnessed using much smaller rotors than are necessary for wind turbines .

Despite setbacks, wave and tidal power are set for a renaissanceRichard Anderson, Business reporter, March 17, 2015, “Riding the waves: The challenge of harnessing ocean power,” BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31651019, ACC. 4-24-2015On paper, tidal and wave power would appear to be the best solution, using the ferocious force of the oceans to deliver clean, abundant and consistent energy. Yet despite the fact the first large-scale tidal project opened in La Rance in France in the 1960s, sea power provides just a fraction of the energy delivered by its renewable counterparts - currently just 0.5GW compared with almost 400GW of wind power. But renewed determination to develop new technologies to harness the ocean's power means the tidal industry could be set for something of a renaissance.

Wave power good – Grid integration

Australia proves wave power can be integrated to the grid for powerMihai Andrei, research analyst, March 2, 2015, “World’s first grid-connected wave power station switched on in Australia,” Zme Science, http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/renewable-energy-ecology/wave-power-station-australia-03022015/, ACC. 4-23-2015The world’s first grid-connected wave power station has just been activated off the coast of Australia. Taking energy directly from the waves and sending them to the grid is a remarkable achievement which will hopefully be further replicated in Australia, as well as in other parts of the world. Wave power is one of the renewable energy sources with the most potential, although realistically, it’s still miles away from having a major impact on the world. But Australian company Carnegie Wave Energy wants to change that – they developed a project which takes transfers wave energy straight into the electrical grid. “This is the first array of wave power generators to be connected to an electricity grid in Australia and worldwide,” said Ivor Frischknecht, CEO of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, in a statement. The Agency has provided $13 million of the $32 million project. Wave-power generation is not currently a widely employed commercial technology, although there have been attempts to use it since at least 1890. In 2008, an experimental wave power station opened in Portugal, but the wave farm was shut down two months after the official opening in November 2008 as a result of the financial collapse of the company running it.

Wave power good – Meets electricity needs

80% of U.S. electricity needs could be met with wave energy. This boosts the overall renewables marketShalinee Kishore, Associate Professor Electrical and Computer Engineering at Lehigh University, April 10, 2015, “Why the Ocean Needs Digital Technology to Create Our Energy,” Gizmodo, http://gizmodo.com/why-ocean-energy-needs-digital-technology-to-create-our-1696943887, ACC. 4-28-2015Estimates of economically recoverable wave energy along the US coasts range up to 1,170 terawatt- hours (Twh) per year using existing technology. Total electricity consumption in the US is approximately 4,000 TWh/year and coastal states use nearly 80% of the nation’s electricity. This means that the potential for clean, renewable wave power production in the US is very high. Ocean wave characteristics can be reliably predicted up to 48 hours in advance and waves are available 90% of the day on average, compared to 20-30% for wind and solar. This key benefit will provide wave power producers more lucrative market opportunities than are currently available to more variable renewables. These profits could also offset the high initial costs of installing wave farms.

Offshore Wind Power Good – Industry improving

The fundamentals of offshore wind industry are strong and growingFuel Fix, Staff Writers, April 28, 2015, “The offshore wind industry is still struggling to ramp up in the U.S.,” http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/04/28/the-offshore-wind-industry-is-still-struggling-to-ramp-up-in-the-u-s/, ACC. 4-29-2015“The fundamentals of the business are really strong,” Grybowski said. “But it will take this first project to kick things off.” Despite the hurdles and delays, Jackie Savitz, a vice president for the conservation group Oceana, said she still sees tremendous potential for the industry in the U.S. “If we can start being players in this field, I think we can start to scale it in a really positive way,” she said. Kennedy said the industry’s future hinges on the construction costs coming down as developers become more experienced, on states pursuing renewable energy policies and on Deepwater Wind succeeding.

The new Rhode Island wind farm will be a landmark for the industryKatie Valentine, Staff Writer, April 28, 2015, “First Offshore Wind Farm In The U.S. Kicks Off Construction,” Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/28/3651715/deepwater-wind-project-construction-starts/, ACC. 4-29-2015Offshore wind is coming to the United States. Construction on what will be the country’s first offshore wind farm started Monday in Rhode Island. The wind farm, which is being developed by Deepwater Wind, will be located off of the coast of Block Island, a small island about 13 miles south of Rhode Island. Once completed, the five-turbine, 30-megawatt wind farm will produce enough energy to power all homes and businesses on Block Island, which previously relied on diesel generators, according to the Sierra Club. The wind farm will also send energy to mainland Rhode Island. It’s expected to come online in fall 2016. Environmental groups, many of which have pushed for the project since it started going through hearings in 2013, applauded the start of construction. Bruce Nilles, senior campaign director for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign, told ThinkProgress that the start of construction was a “landmark” moment for the U.S. wind industry, and that it “really makes real the promise offshore wind has” in the U.S., particularly on the East Coast.

Offshore Wind Power Good - Electricity

Offshore wind could supply electricity to 53% of the U.S. populationAmanda Kelly, Staff Writer, April 9, 2015, “Alternative Energy: The Case for Renewables,” The Maritime Executive, http://www.maritime-executive.com/features/alternative-energy-the-case-for-renewables, ACC. 4-24-2015Offshore wind turbines are being used by a number of countries to harness the energy of strong, consistent winds found over the oceans. In the U.S., 53 percent of the population lives in coastal areas where energy costs are high and land-based renewable energy resources are limited. Abundant offshore wind has the potential to supply immense quantities of renewable energy to major coastal cities.

Offshore Wind Power Good – Fossil fuels

Offshore wind reduces consumption of fossil fuelsJames Keegan, RJD intern, March 4, 2015, “Offshore Windmill’s Impact on the Marine Environment,” R.J. Dunlap Marine Conservation Program, University of Miami, http://rjd.miami.edu/conservation/offshore-windmills-impact-on-the-marine-environment, ACC. 4-29-2015Global demand for renewable energy is increasing as nations strive to decrease their carbon emissions, pollution, and dependence on non-renewable resources like coal or oil. Because of its energy output and potential to compete in energy markets, wind energy may be the most promising renewable energy. Consequently, wind energy has been rapidly expanding, reaching a capacity in 2012 that was 5 times greater than the capacity in 2005. Expectations for offshore wind energy are particularly high, as wind conditions are often stronger and more stable over sea. Moreover, offshore wind farms allow for higher total levels of energy production and larger windmill units, which may be transported and constructed more easily. Offshore wind farms also appease dissenters who contest that the visual disturbance caused by windmills ruins the aesthetics of local landscapes. As technology has advanced, the average capacity of turbines and size of offshore wind farms have been increasing, and they are being installed in deeper waters further from the coast. By the end of 2013, operational wind farms were in an average water depth of 16 meters (~52 ft.) and 29 kilometers (~18 miles) from shore in Europe. With such an increase in the encroachment on the marine environment, the focus on offshore wind farms’ impact on the local marine ecosystem continues to grow as well.

Offshore Wind Power Good - Biodiversity

Turbine foundations become artificial reefs where biodiversity thrivesHelen Hill, Staff Writer, April 20, 2015, “Marine life has no borders,” Offshore Wind Biz, http://www.offshorewind.biz/2015/04/20/effects-on-marine-life-marine-life-has-no-borders/, ACC. 4-29-2015When it comes to the subsea community there are positive changes in the enlargement of the biodiversity present. The wind turbine foundations effectively become artificial reefs where for instance mussels and anemones find a place to live. This attracts other species, which can find food or shelter. And clearly these creatures would not be there at all without structures to live on.

Fish thrive around offshore wind turbinesHelen Hill, Staff Writer, April 20, 2015, “Marine life has no borders,” Offshore Wind Biz, http://www.offshorewind.biz/2015/04/20/effects-on-marine-life-marine-life-has-no-borders/, ACC. 4-29-2015Fish might also benefit from offshore wind farms. For instance, researchers found that young cod seem to be quite comfortable hanging around the turbines. There are also indications that more sandeels live and flatfish are larger inside wind farms compared to outside wind farms. Marine mammals like seals and harbour porpoises are found within wind farm areas. Birds show different reactions to offshore wind farms. Some species avoid wind farms, some species don’t seem to care and other species, like cormorants are even attracted by wind farms (see insert).

Offshore Wind Power Good – A2: Deep sea constraints

Floating wind turbines allow for deep sea energy developmentSandra Whitehouse, consultant who serves as the Senior Policy Advisor for Ocean Conservancy, April 21, 2015, “New Industry Technologies Speak to the Need for Smart Ocean Planning,” Ocean Conservancy, http://blog.oceanconservancy.org/2015/04/21/new-industry-technologies-speak-to-the-need-for-smart-ocean-planning/, ACC. 4-29-2015Another new technology that has the potential to significantly change the footprint of human uses in the ocean is being developed by offshore wind companies. For example, Principle Power, based in Seattle, Washington, is designing a floating wind turbine foundation that will allow for the siting of offshore wind installations regardless of water depth. Until now, offshore wind has been constrained to areas closer to shore because of the need for foundations connected to the ocean floor. As companies like these develop new technologies, they are helping to drive changes in the ocean footprint of their industries. Shipping routes and port access demands may change thanks to LNG-powered ships needing to use ports where they can refuel. Floating wind platforms will allow for areas that are too deep for traditional fixed turbines to be accessed for development. These are just two of many ocean-based industries where rapidly changing needs and technologies are resulting in an increasingly busy and crowded ocean.

OTEC Good - Desalination

OTEC is excellent for desalinationWilliam Steel, Staff Writer, April 4, 2015, “What about marine energy?,” http://phlebas.co/2015/04/04/what-about-marine-energy/, ACC. 4-28-2015Lastly, marine energy techniques can often be developed in such a way as to create useful by-products; in particular desalinated water. In today’s global climate this is an extraordinarily important consideration, and something that likes of OTEC and Carnegie Wave Power are not ignorant of. Delivering not only power, but fresh drinking water, cold water for use in domestic or industrial settings, and fresh water for agricultural practices are all key features of marine energy.

(MHK) Marine Hydrokinetic

MHK - Inherency

Although it is expanding, MHK renewable contribution is low now Michael Harris, Associate Editor, April 14, 2015, “Marine energy sector continues growing worldwide, despite economic setbacks,” Hydroworld, http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/04/marine-energy-sector-continues-growing-worldwide-despite-economic-setbacks.html, ACC. 4-24-2015And though the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) sector continues to expand, OES chairman Jose Luis Villate said it still faces a number of challenges. "The OES mission is a long-term one," Villate said. "Ocean energy is still a small actor in the energy landscape. The contribution from ocean energy is very low and will not be significant in the foreseeable future.

MHK – U.S. competitiveness internals

The EU and Japan are joining forces for marine renewables internationallyElizabeth Ingram, Managing Editor, April 6, 2015, “Europe, Japan partner to support development of marine and hydrokinetic energy,” Hydroworld, http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/04/europe-japan-partner-to-support-development-of-marine-and-hydrokinetic-energy.html, ACC. 4-24-2015To help support the development of marine renewables in Japan, and to stimulate further collaboration between Japan and Scotland, the European Marine Energy Centre has become a member of the Nagasaki Marine Industry Cluster Promotion Association (NaMICPA). Joining took place during the third Offshore Renewable Mission to Japan, which involved Scottish companies meeting with key government organizations, as well as some of Japan’s biggest companies, such as Kawasaki and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The goal of this mission was to keep Scottish companies up to date with developments in the Japanese renewable energy market, which included assessing market opportunities within the region. “International collaboration is vital for the development of the marine renewables industry,” said EMEC Commercial Director Oliver Wragg. “Only by working with other countries can we ensure that there is a global market available for clients testing their pioneering devices in Scotland.”

Despite some advances, MHK technologies in the U.S. faces many challengesAlison LaBonte, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2015, Annual Report: Implementing agreement on ocean energy systems 2014, http://report2014.ocean-energy-systems.org/documents/OES-Annual-Report-2014/, ACC. 4-25-2015While significant progress has been made to expedite the permitting process for MHK technologies in the United States, especially for pilot scale and research projects, the amount of time, finances and other resources required to navigate the permitting process remains a challenge for many MHK projects. To help ensure that the regulatory community has access to the most recent, amalgamated information regarding MHK systems and environmental research, the Water Power Program sponsored a MHK regulator training workshop in September 2014. A second workshop will be held in the spring of 2015.

SMRs

SMRs good – Ready for commercialization

The newest study confirms SMRs are ready for commercializationDan Yurman, Staff Writer, March 3, 2015, “Be Careful About Rose-Colored Glasses When Viewing the Future of SMRs,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/dan-yurman/2199841/be-careful-about-rose-colored-glasses-when-viewing-future-smrs, ACC. 4-24-2015Following another year of turbulence a casual observer of the nuclear industry may be forgiven for concluding that Small Modular Reactor (SMR) development has stalled, but a new report by Nuclear Energy Insider suggests that, despite the negative headlines, it claims a new sense of clarity and purpose is emerging around the technology’s commercialization, and concludes that SMRs look set to be back on the agenda next year. The trade report says that it draws on analysis from over one hundred hours of primary research and interviews with more than fifty leading specialists and decision makers, the report sheds light on the crucial challenges faced by the sector in the past eight months. It identifies the vital next steps required to promote confidence, stability and a clear path forward for SMRs.

The NRC will soon issue regulatory clarity to pave the way for SMR expansionKerr Jeferies, Senior Industry Analyst at Nuclear Energy Insider, 2014, “Small Modular Reactors: An industry in terminal decline or on the brink of a comeback?,” Nuclear Energy Insider, https://www.academia.edu/9304840/Small_Modular_Reactors_An_industry_in_terminal_ decline_or_on_the_brink_of_a_comeback, ACC. 4-24-2015In order to provide clarity for those preparing designs for licensing, the SMR industry has called for clear direction regarding fundamental safety licensing criteria. Providing clarity in areas such as emergency planning zones and operational staffing is essential to ensuring further investment in SMR’s is not wasted. Given the costs involved in submitting design documents to regulators it makes prudent business sense to wait for direction rather than push forwards with designing a reactor that may require costly safety adjustments in future. Fortunately there have been positive signals in the US that the NRC will at least establish policy on the broad siting and operational safety expectations by the end of 2015.

SMRs good – Federal investment key

Federal investment is key to stimulate SMR investorsKerr Jeferies, Senior Industry Analyst at Nuclear Energy Insider, 2014, “Small Modular Reactors: An industry in terminal decline or on the brink of a comeback?,” Nuclear Energy Insider, https://www.academia.edu/9304840/Small_Modular_Reactors_An_industry_in_terminal_ decline_or_on_the_brink_of_a_comeback, ACC. 4-24-2015A second and more realistic option is to translate political support for the concept of SMR’s into a substantial federal investment covering the excess costs of the first-of-a-kind model. It has been argued by many in the nuclear industry that SMR’s will require federal incentives in order to encourage sufficient confidence for shareholders to commit to such along term investment. Either through tax incentives or federal backing there has been one clear call to action. In the minds of the potential customers only the injection of public capital can stimulate investors to the point of taking on a first-of-a-kind SMR and the associated financial risk. Although the actual construction of SMR’s is still some years away, the industry will be heading for further uncertainty unless early discussions are held between stakeholders as to where financial support for first-of-a-kind models will come from along with confidence over the strength of that support.

SMRs good – Best option

SMRs are more flexible and do not need to be attached to the gridPaul Brown, Staff Writer March 18, 2015, “UN climate talks may boost small nuclear reactors,” RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/ 18/un-climate-talks-may-boost-small-nuclear-reactors/, ACC. 4-24-2015Nuclear plants have been getting larger and larger since they were first built 60 years ago, but now the industry, with US government backing, believes that small factory-built reactors will provide a new market. Small modular reactors, known as SMRs, are not much different from the nuclear power plants that successfully power submarines and icebreakers. They do not need to be attached to the grid and can be scaled up and down in size depending on the power output needed.

SMRs can easily be scaled up for exportCyril Crocq, Analyst with Sia Partners, March 18, 2015, “Modular nuclear reactors, a promising market for the future?,” Energy Outlook, http://energy.sia-partners.com/20150318/modular-nuclear-reactors-a-promising-market-for-the-future/, ACC. 4-25-2015Among the advantages of SMRs, the serial production effect would allow to reduce construction costs in a significant way and to become progressively more competitive in comparison with other production sources. Besides, the modular aspect should produce a sharp drop in construction duration and related costs, thanks to lighter civil works. The total construction cost of an SMR is less capital-intensive and expected to be lower on average than a high-power nuclear plant – $700 million vs. $5.4 billion. Obtaining financing for the projects is thus facilitated.

***Case Answers***

Aqualculture

Aquaculture Ans. – Vulnerable to climate change

Aquaculture is equally vulnerable to climate change as fisheriesCecile Brugère, FAO Consultant, 2015, “Climate change vulnerability in fisheries and aquaculture: A synthesis of six regional studies,” FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular. No. 1104, http://www.fao.org/fishery/publications/en, ACC. 4-28-2015Aquatic systems, both marine and freshwater, have been recognized as vital in provisioning, regulating and supporting a wide range of services for humankind. However, climate change is a growing threat to the continuous provision of these services. The implications of this global challenge to the sustainability of fisheries and aquaculture and the livelihoods and economies that depend on them have been receiving increasing attention. It is now recognized that sea-level rise, ocean acidification and changes in salinity, precipitation, groundwater and river flows, water stresses and extreme weather events are changing the productivity of aquatic habitats, modifying the distribution of both marine and freshwater fish species, and affecting the seasonality of biological and biophysical processes.

Aquaculture Ans. – A2: Food

Aquaculture is already increasing now to supply foodSustainable Seafood Coalition, Staff Writers, April 21, 2015, “Commercial aquaculture: potential environmental issues,” http://sustainableseafoodcoalition.org/commercial-aquaculture-potential-environmental-issues/, ACC. 4-29-2015Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food sectors worldwide. It provides almost half of the world’s fish for human consumption. The average per-capita consumption of farmed fish is continually increasing. The development of aquaculture needs to be compatible with the environment and it is essential that the industry is ecologically sustainable. Some of the potential environmental problems with aquaculture are listed below. You can also find out more through ClientEarth’s briefing note on sustainable aquaculture development or about different types of aquaculture.

Aquaculture Ans. – A2: biodiversity

Aquaculture farms can disrupt natural fish habitats, cause sea lice and disrupt foodwebsSustainable Seafood Coalition, Staff Writers, April 21, 2015, “Commercial aquaculture: potential environmental issues,” http://sustainableseafoodcoalition.org/commercial-aquaculture-potential-environmental-issues/, ACC. 4-29-2015There are a number of problems which stem from fish farms being located in inappropriate areas. These include vulnerable habitats (both terrestrial and marine), essential fish habitats or areas with high concentrations of wild fish. Some of the problems can include organic waste accumulation on the seabed under sea pens – resulting in localised degraded water quality sea lice and other disease transfer; and altered foodwebs from escaped individuals as described below.

Aquaculture Bad – Escapees / disease

Escaped fish can spread disease to other countriesSalmon Farm Science, February 4, 2015, “Salmon aquaculture virus study leaves one big unanswered question,” http://salmonfarmscience.com/2015/02/04/salmon-aquaculture-virus-study-leaves-one-big-unanswered-question/, ACC. 4-29-2015A study by Norwegian researchers published late last month is apparently ” the first study confirming the presence of virus-infected escaped farmed Atlantic salmon in a nearby river shortly after escaping.” The study makes some interesting speculations: The recapture of the infected escaped salmon in nearby marine sites highlights the potential contribution of escapees in virus transmission to other salmon farms in the area.

Aquaculture Bad – Anti-blackness links

Socially marginalized groups are denied access to aquacultureAFSPAN, Staff Writers, March 2015, Aquaculture for Food Security, Poverty Alleviation and Nutrition (AFSPAN), Final Technical Report, http://www.afspan.eu/publications/reports/afspan-final-technical-report-d8.2.pdf, ACC. 4-29-2015As with any development aquaculture can also have adverse social and ecological impacts. Adoption of aquaculture was found to sometimes lead to privatization of, or confer exclusive access to, common resources that are relied upon by socially marginalized groups (e.g. tribal and landless people, women) to sustain livelihoods. Aquaculture development sometimes aggravated tensions and promoted conflict, especially in Africa and the Indian sub-continent, resulting in poaching or vandalism. Such actions may also arise as a result of envy or 'social levelling', especially in Africa. Interventions developed within given specific socio-cultural contexts are most likely to lead to successful adoption and delivery of equitable development outcomes that do not aggravate social unrest. Aquaculture programmes need to include strategies for sharing benefits as widely as possible by adopting a community-based approach involving nonfish farmers in farm labour or other employment opportunities along the value chain created through increased fish production, thereby reducing the potential for conflict

Any economic benefits from aquaculture are unequal and smallAFSPAN, Staff Writers, March 2015, Aquaculture for Food Security, Poverty Alleviation and Nutrition (AFSPAN), Final Technical Report, http://www.afspan.eu/publications/reports/afspan-final-technical-report-d8.2.pdf, ACC. 4-29-2015A theory of change was elaborated and range of analytical frameworks, economic models and indicators, complemented by surveys and case studies developed. The contribution of aquaculture to national GDP, excluding multiplier effects, was found to vary from negligible in countries with emergent aquaculture sectors up to 5% or more of national GDP in countries where the sector is very dynamic. Aquaculture was shown to have helped lower global fish prices, increasing economic access for all but the very poorest consumers. Although households engaging in aquaculture were found less likely to be poor than those that did not, poor households too benefitted from engaging in fish farming, irrespective of scale of operation. Fish consumption rates of households engaged in fish farming were typically higher than national averages.

Aquaculture Bad – Gender / feminism links

Gender denies access to aquaculture form most women on multiple levelsAFSPAN, Staff Writers, March 2015, Aquaculture for Food Security, Poverty Alleviation and Nutrition (AFSPAN), Final Technical Report, http://www.afspan.eu/publications/reports/afspan-final-technical-report-d8.2.pdf, ACC. 4-29-2015Gender norms and relations are among the most important socio-cultural constraints on the ability of individuals to pursue aquaculture effectively. While gender norms vary with context, in general they are a barrier to women’s efforts to practice aquaculture, in particular for the purpose of earning an income. Among other things gender norms and relations put women at a disadvantage relative to men through restricting their access to information and skills, limiting their contact with other actors in the value chain and preventing them from spending sufficient time on aquaculture to maintain efficient, productive fish ponds.

Women go unrecognized in aquaculture and denied access. We must explicitly include women in aquaculture planningAFSPAN, Staff Writers, March 2015, Aquaculture for Food Security, Poverty Alleviation and Nutrition (AFSPAN), Final Technical Report, http://www.afspan.eu/publications/reports/afspan-final-technical-report-d8.2.pdf, ACC. 4-29-2015While a large number of women work in the aquaculture sector, their contributions are mostly unrecognized, unrecorded and undervalued, largely due to lack of collection of gender disaggregated data. A further important finding with wide societal implications is that engagement of women in aquaculture improves their access to and control over resources and increases household consumption of fish. However, prevailing gender norms were often found to impede women’s efforts to participate in aquaculture, especially when enterprise oriented, by restricting access to information and skills, limiting contact with other value chain actors and preventing them from spending sufficient time on aquaculture to ensure productive, profitable fish ponds. It is thus important to explicitly include women in aquaculture initiatives and to identify and find mechanisms to effectively address social and cultural norms, including work load sharing, if the benefits on nutrition from aquaculture development are to be maximized. It is also recommended that FAO take the lead in preparing policy guidelines on gender equality, for example through technical guidelines on gender in aquaculture within the Code of Conduct on Responsible Fisheries.

Marine Reserves / MPAs

Marine Reserves / MPAs – Fail to protect biodiversity

The newest research prove marine reserves fail to protect key species like sharksErin King, Staff Writer, March 24, 2015, “MPA fails to protect sharks and rays,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2015-03-mpa-sharks-rays.html#nRlv, ACC. 4-28-2015New research led by researchers at the University of Victoria raises serious concerns about the ability of marine protected areas (MPAs) to effectively protect wide-ranging iconic species, such as sharks and rays. The study, published today in Conservation Biology, investigated 21 years of recordings of shark and ray sightings at Cocos Island, a UNESCO heritage site and marine protected area off Costa Rica. Cocos is surrounded by an extensive system of coral reefs and seamounts and lies at the confluence of several major oceanic currents, leading to exceptional biodiversity. It is renowned among scuba divers as one of the best places in the world to view sharks and rays in large numbers. But is Cocos a conservation success story or merely a "paper park" where conservation goals are not managed or enforced? To find out, the UVic team and University of Northern Iowa biologist Mark Myers crunched numbers from more than 1.4 million shark and ray sightings made during dives led by Undersea Hunter, a local dive company. "In a region lacking fisheries data or dedicated research surveys, the dive logs give us a window to see how sharks and rays have changed over two decades in this isolated, globally unique reserve," says Myers. Results reveal major declines in eight of the reserve's 12 commonly observed shark and ray species. "The largest species, like hammerheads and manta rays , are simply moving in and out of protected areas as part of their natural migration patterns," says Easton White, a co-author of the study and a UVic Fulbright student at the time.

Renewables

(MHK) Marine Hydrokinetic – Advancing now

MHK renewables are advancing worldwide nowMichael Harris, Associate Editor, April 14, 2015, “Marine energy sector continues growing worldwide, despite economic setbacks,” Hydroworld, http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/04/marine-energy-sector-continues-growing-worldwide-despite-economic-setbacks.html, ACC. 4-24-2015A report released recently by the International Energy Agency's Ocean Energy Systems shows that the marine and hydrokinetic sector moved closer to commercial viability through 2014. The OES report used data from each of its 23 member countries and examined policy changes, public funding opportunities and projects put into the water worldwide.

Wave & Tidal Power – Status Quo Solves / Inherency

The DOE is already advancing wave energy conversion in the U.S.Gregory B. Poindexter, Associate Editor, April 2, 2015, “Energy Department prize challenge incentivizes wave energy conversion next generation ideas,” Hydroworld, http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/04/energy-department-prize-challenge-incentivizes-wave-energy-conversion-next-generation-ideas.html, ACC. 4-24-2015In April, the U.S. Department of Energy announced its launch of the Wave Energy Prize competition “as a means to use a prize challenge to help dramatically improve the performance of wave energy conversion (WEC) devices, providing a pathway to game-changing reductions in the cost of wave energy.” The competition is a multi-tiered, open entry program meant to spur development of marine hydrokinetic technology for use in the U.S. According to the agency, the Wave Energy Prize aims to attract next generation ideas by offering a prize purse and providing an opportunity for testing at the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock’s Maneuvering and Seakeeping (MASK) Basin in Maryland.

Wave & Tidal Power – Studies CP

Wave energy needs greater study before expansionShalinee Kishore, Associate Professor Electrical and Computer Engineering at Lehigh University, April 10, 2015, “Why the Ocean Needs Digital Technology to Create Our Energy,” Gizmodo, http://gizmodo.com/why-ocean-energy-needs-digital-technology-to-create-our-1696943887, ACC. 4-28-2015As an emerging industry, wave energy conversion faces other challenges. For example, more testing infrastructure is needed. But to do that, current regulatory and permitting procedures have to be updated for this technology. And the environmental impact of withdrawing large amounts of wave energy must be studied further. Over the past two decades, several types of WEC devices have been developed and deployed. There have been commercial-scale wave farms deployed in Australia and Europe, but none has been put online in the US. For ocean energy to scale up, we will need to fill some gaps in our knowledge. In the future, wave farms will not be a collection of individual generators. Instead, they will be a complex cyber-physical system and require interdisciplinary tools.

Offshore Wind – Status quo solves

Wind power is improving now because we already give massive government subsidiesGreen Optimist, Staff Writer, April 7, 2015, “Offshore Wind Now Competitive with Gas and Nuclear,” http://www.greenoptimistic.com/offshore-wind-gas-nuclear/#.VUGwAyFViko, ACC. 4-29-2015With several technological developments pushing down development costs, and regulators seeing the light, the winds are changing as far as offshore wind development is going. One energy analyst, Mike Parr, has gone as far as saying that offshore wind power is cheaper than combined cycle gas turbines and nuclear power. He goes on to say that offshore wind power developers are making a killing off government subsidies .

Offshore Wind – Solvency Answers

90% of U.S. waters are too deep for offshore windAmanda Kelly, Staff Writer, April 9, 2015, “Alternative Energy: The Case for Renewables,” The Maritime Executive, http://www.maritime-executive.com/features/alternative-energy-the-case-for-renewables, ACC. 4-24-2015Commercial-scale offshore wind facilities are similar to onshore facilities. The wind turbines used in offshore environments include modifications to prevent corrosion, and their foundations must be designed to withstand the harsh environment of the ocean – everything from hurricane-force winds to ice flows. Unfortunately for the U.S., roughly 90 percent of its Outer Continental Shelf wind potential occurs in waters that are too deep for current turbine technology. Engineers are working on new technologies like innovative foundations and floating wind turbines to help transition wind power development into the harsher conditions associated with deeper waters.

Offshore wind faces multiple barriers the plan does not solveJennifer McDermot, Staff Writer, April 28, 2015, “Offshore Wind Energy Sector off to Slow Start in US,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/offshore-wind-energy-sector-off-slow-start-us-30653726, ACC. 4-29-2015Developers and industry experts say the offshore wind energy sector is off to such a slow start in the U.S. because of regulatory hurdles, opposition from fossil fuel interests and the trials and tribulations of doing something for the first time. While they've tempered their expectations that offshore wind energy will come to the U.S. in a big way anytime soon, many are hoping Deepwater Wind's wind farm will pave the way for other projects.

Offshore Wind – Studies CP

Huge knowledge gaps remain on the impact of offshore windHelen Hill, Staff Writer, April 20, 2015, “Marine life has no borders,” Offshore Wind Biz, http://www.offshorewind.biz/2015/04/20/effects-on-marine-life-marine-life-has-no-borders/, ACC. 4-29-2015However, there are still gaps in knowledge. The most important research questions at the moment are what the cumulative impact is of many offshore wind farms together and the long term impact on populations. Another important question is what the long term impact will be of construction noise on the marine life.

OTEC –Climate Change Ans.

OTEC will have a boomerang effect for climate changeTim Radford, Climate News Network, April 5, 2015, “New Ocean Energy Plan Could Worsen Global Warming,” TruthDig, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/new_ocean_energy_plan_could_worsen_global_warming_20150405, ACC. 4-28-2015Of all the renewable energy technologies, ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) sounded like the perfect choice. This is a plan to exploit the difference between the warm surface and the cold deeps of the seas, and turn that difference into energy. The agency that did the work would be a network of vertical pipes floating below the surface: it would not spoil the view from the coast, and it would deliver power day or night, whatever the weather. But there was more. Enthusiasts pointed out that as a bonus, the pipes used in the energy conversion would bring a flow of nutrients from the cold, deep waters to the less-fertile but sunlit surface of the ocean, thus encouraging the growth of marine algae that would soak up more carbon from the atmosphere. And, as a bonus, the same process would accelerate the downward flow of carbon, where it could be sequestered on the sea bed. Now one of renewable energy’s more vocal supporters has taken a closer look at the long-term consequences of the ocean pipes and come up with some discouraging news: an engineering programme intended to cool the planet would end up making it warmer. It would work for a while, but after about half a century it would reduce the cloud cover and at the same time reduce the sea ice, to accelerate climate change once more .

OTEC exacerbates long-term warmingJim Baird, Staff Writer, March 26, 2015, “The Climate Case for Hydrogen,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/jim-baird/2209641/climate-case-hydrogen, ACC. 4-28-2015Rather than addressing the premise of storing thermal energy in the deep ocean however as this author has repeatedly proposed, the study focuses on massive upwelling of cold water to the extent near surface temperatures of world’s ocean initially are reduced by close to 9oC, which then cools the atmosphere to the extent cloud cover is reduced with a commensurate rise in temperature of from 8.6–8.8°C by 2069. Although one of the authors has acknowledged in an email that the direct applicability of the study to OTEC is suspect, when the conclusion of the abstract is “Prolonged application of ocean pipe technologies, rather than avoiding global warming, could exacerbate long-term warming of the climate system” it can hardly be considered an endorsement.

Ocean pipe technologies like OTEC will increase long-term warmingTim Radford, Climate News Network, April 5, 2015, “New Ocean Energy Plan Could Worsen Global Warming,” TruthDig, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/new_ocean_energy_plan_could_worsen_global_warming_20150405, ACC. 4-28-2015Ken Caldeira, senior scientist in the Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University’s Carnegie Institution, California, is one of the more energetic voices in climate research: he and his Carnegie colleagues have already warned that the world is feeling the heat from carbon dioxide released from car exhausts and factory chimneys and he has spoken up loudly for nuclear power, and indeed any “clean” energy sources. He and Stanford colleagues Lester Kwiatkowski and Katharine Ricke report in Environmental Research Letters that when they began to simulate an ocean dotted with vertical pipes that exchanged deeper and shallower waters, they expected to confirm the value of such an approach.

They could not. “Our simulations indicate the likely sign and character of unintended atmospheric consequences of such ocean technologies,” they conclude, in formal science-speak. “Prolonged application of ocean pipe technologies, rather than avoiding global warming, could exacerbate long-term warming of the climate system.”

OTEC –Climate Change Ans.

The newest study proves OTEC will drastically increase warmingCarnegie Institution for Science, Staff Writers, March 19, 2015, “Ocean pipes 'not cool,' would end up warming climate,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2015-03-ocean-pipes-cool-climate.html, ACC. 4-28-2015To combat global climate change caused by greenhouse gases, alternative energy sources and other types of environmental recourse actions are needed. There are a variety of proposals that involve using vertical ocean pipes to move seawater to the surface from the depths in order to reap different potential climate benefits. A new study from a group of Carnegie scientists determines that these types of pipes could actually increase global warming quite drastically. It is published in Environmental Research Letters. One proposed strategy—called Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, or OTEC—involves using the temperature difference between deeper and shallower water to power a heat engine and produce clean electricity. A second proposal is to move carbon from the upper ocean down into the deep, where it wouldn't interact with the atmosphere. Another idea, and the focus of this particular study, proposes that ocean pipes could facilitate direct physical cooling of the surface ocean by replacing warm surface ocean waters with colder, deeper waters.

OTEC guarantees 8.5 degree Celsius warmingCarnegie Institution for Science, Staff Writers, March 19, 2015, “Ocean pipes 'not cool,' would end up warming climate,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2015-03-ocean-pipes-cool-climate.html, ACC. 4-28-2015Water mixing caused by ocean pipes would also bring sea ice into contact with warmer waters, resulting in melting. What's more, this would further decrease the reflection of the Sun's radiation, which bounces off ice as well as clouds. After 60 years, the pipes would cause an increase in global temperature of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2degrees Fahrenheit). Over several centuries, the pipes put the Earth on a warming trend towards a temperature increase of 8.5 degrees Celsius (15.3 degrees Fahrenheit). "I cannot envisage any scenario in which a large scale global implementation of ocean pipes would be advisable," Kwiatkowski said. "In fact, our study shows it could exacerbate long-term warming and is therefore highly inadvisable at global scales."

OTEC drastically changes ocean temperaturesJim Baird, Staff Writer, March 26, 2015, “The Climate Case for Hydrogen,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/jim-baird/2209641/climate-case-hydrogen, ACC. 4-28-2015Although hydrogen is not a silver bullet as it is principally produced it is my contention it can be when created with heat pipe OTEC and supergreen electrolysis and that it is in the interest of the makers of FCVs and the planet for the car company's to support the development of these technologies. There is one rider to this testimonial as well as previous articles produced by this writer on this subject and that is cloud cover issue suggested by Dr. Peterson and addressed in the recent paper Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline by researchers from the Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University. The abstract states, “Technologies utilizing vertical ocean pipes have been proposed as a means to avoid global warming, either by providing a source of clean energy, increasing ocean carbon uptake, or storing thermal energy in the deep ocean. However, increased vertical transport of water has the capacity to drastically alter the ocean thermocline.”

SMRs

SMRs cannot be competitive

SMRs are not cost or energy efficient. They can’t be competitiveKerr Jeferies, Senior Industry Analyst at Nuclear Energy Insider, 2014, “Small Modular Reactors: An industry in terminal decline or on the brink of a comeback?,” Nuclear Energy Insider, https://www.academia.edu/9304840/Small_Modular_Reactors_An_industry_in_terminal_ decline_or_on_the_brink_of_a_comeback, ACC. 4-24-2015However, SMR concepts face a real challenge in ensuring cost and energy efficiency. Making a power unit smaller also increases the need to have five, ten or even twelve modular reactors working in unison to create the same level of base load electricity as the large PWR’s and fossil fuel plants they will replace. In reducing the size of reactor modules you also reduce the amount of thermal energy produced, if an SMR only has an energy efficiency of 30-40% then you require even further units to make up the shortfall. Whilst SMR’s offer a great deal of energy flexibility to energy utilities– having many modules in a single facility allows for greater energy stability should a single module need to be taken out of production –there is a fine line to tread between installing enough modular reactors for base load electricity and ensuring that cost per MWe remains competitive with other sources of energy.

SMRs won’t be competitive until natural gas prices get higherPaul Brown, Staff Writer March 18, 2015, “UN climate talks may boost small nuclear reactors,” RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/ 18/un-climate-talks-may-boost-small-nuclear-reactors/, ACC. 4-24-2015Dr. Glenn George, principal with KPMG’s advisory practice, and co-head of the company’s US Economics & Regulation group, quoted in the Nuclear Energy Insider, said he thought potential investors were still doubtful, and wanted to wait and see. “The economic and financial advantages that come from easy siting and series production in a factory setting need to be weighed against SMRs’ smaller capacity and energy output. This places a high burden on SMRs to be cost-effective relative to large nuclear power plants,” he said. “For the market for new nuclear plants, including SMRs, to flourish, there likely needs to be significantly more expensive natural gas, or an effective price on carbon, or both.”

***Politics Updates***

Links - SMRs

Obama is pushing SMRs nowNick Cunningham, Staff Writer, March 24, 2015, “A Look At The Future Of Nuclear Power,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/A-Look-At-The-Future-Of-Nuclear-Power.html, ACC. 4-24-2015However, the industry, along with the Obama administration, is placing a lot of hope in small modular reactors (SMRs), nuclear power plants that are around one-tenth the size of a conventional large-scale nuclear power plant. The fact is, getting a nuclear power plant through the design licensing process at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is not only a long and expensive process, but it is the only practical way that a specific design will reach commercialization. The fact that the Obama administration has singled out SMRs suggests that it is probably the only game in town in the near future.

Obama will get credit or blame for the plan. He’s been pushing it for yearsCaroline Halter, Staff Writer, April 15, 2015, “Are Washington Lawmakers Jumping the Gun on Nuclear Energy?,” WA Catalyst, http://www.wacatalyst.org/are-washington-lawmakers-jumping-the-gun-on-nuclear-energy/, ACC. 4-25-2015The advantages of SMRs are hotly contested. The U.S. Department of Energy has come out in favor of them, saying that they are “anticipated to be cost-effective and incredibly safe.” However, other groups, such as the Union of Concerned Scientists, claim that “Small modular reactors are unlikely to solve the economic and safety problems faced by nuclear power.” The Obama Administration has been particularly supportive of nuclear energy in general. After tripling the amount of loan guarantees for nuclear industry in 2010 , he approved $425 million in spending specifically for SMRs in 2012. The first project to be receive support from this latest round of funding is in Tennessee, and it’s estimated to be up and running by 2022.

Obama just passed an executive order pushing SMRsStephen Lacey, Staff Writer, March 24, 2015, “Obama Administration Quietly Seeks Extra Boost for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors,” Green Technica, https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-obama-administration-quietly-seeks-a-boost-for-small-modular-nuclear, ACC. 4-25-2015President Obama is using his executive authority to encourage the government to invest in next-generation nuclear technologies. Last week, the president issued an executive order mandating a 40 percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions across government agencies. Buried in the list of qualifying clean energy technologies was a reference to small modular nuclear technologies -- a new breed of reactors that are smaller, safer and less capital-intensive than traditional light water reactors. As part of the targets, government agencies must get 30 percent of energy from "alternative" technologies by 2025. Those include conventional renewables, conventional fossil fuels with carbon capture, and small modular nuclear reactors. The mention of nuclear was first reported by Matthew Bandyk of SNL.

Links – Offshore Drilling

The oil lobby is pressuring Obama to open up offshore drillingRebecca Leber, Staff Writer, April 19, 2015, “Five Years After the Deepwater Horizon Disaster, Is Offshore Drilling Any Safer?,” New Republic, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121582/bp-deepwater-horizon-anniversary-offshore-drilling-barely-safer, ACC. 5-1-2015Meanwhile, offshore drilling is poised to make a comeback. The Interior Department has proposed 10 leases in the Gulf of Mexico, three in the Arctic, and one in the Atlantic in the next few years. The oil industry wants to stress how safe offshore drilling has become, even as it faces an unknown number of obstacles drilling in previously protected waters. The Arctic is particularly unfamiliar terrain, as a remote locations prone to unpredictable weather and ice that's more than 1,000 miles from the nearest Coast Guard station. Shell, which began exploring there in 2012, has already had some major mishaps and equipment failures. But the oil industry is painting a cheery narrative of the years since the Deepwater Horizon disaster to encourage the Obama administration to go even further in opening up the ocean for drilling.

Links - Fossil Fuel Lobby

Renewables transition will be slow now. The fossil fuel lobby is super strongSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, April 13, 2015, “Deep Sea Drilling Rules and the Transition from Fossil Fuels,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/deep-sea-drilling-rules-a_b_7053966.html, ACC. 5-1-2015The fossil fuel industry has a long history of effective lobbying. The oil embargo of the mid-1970s and the subsequent drive for energy "independence" increased the industry's political clout. The imagery of long gas lines and rapidly rising gasoline prices has had a lasting and powerful effect on American politics. The emergence of a global economy and a global market for fossil fuels has not penetrated America's political consciousness. Oil drilled in the United States might end up here, or it might be shipped someplace else if the price is right. The Middle East no longer dominates the oil market as it once did. The recent reductions in the price of oil provide an indication of the complexity and volatility of the fossil fuel market place. Nevertheless, the renewable energy industry has far less political influence than the fossil fuel industry, and the transition to renewable energy would be faster if that imbalance could be rectified.

TPA – Not pass now

TPA will not pass—Lawmakers fear job lossJake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Doug Palmer, Staff Writers, April 30, 2015, “Obama trade bill in trouble,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/barack-obama-trade-bill-in-trouble-117485.html, ACC. 4-30-2015The House is currently dozens of votes short of being able to pass legislation that would allow President Barack Obama to send trade deals to Congress for fast approval, according to senior lawmakers and aides in both parties, imperiling a top White House priority for the president’s final years in office. At this point, upward of 75 House Republicans could vote against trade promotion authority if it comes up for a vote in the coming weeks, according to aides and lawmakers involved in the process. Some of the lawmakers fear job losses in their districts from free trade; others distrust Obama and oppose giving him more power.

TPA Good – Key to Obama’s agenda

Failure to pass TPA tanks Obama’s agendaJake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Doug Palmer, Staff Writers, April 30, 2015, “Obama trade bill in trouble,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/barack-obama-trade-bill-in-trouble-117485.html, ACC. 4-30-2015“We’re still working through,” House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Wednesday. “But this is going to be a bipartisan effort. And we want to see that equal push from the administration.” Failing to pass TPA would be an enormous defeat for the major power centers in Washington — but especially for Obama, who has made this trade deal central to his second-term economic agenda. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is supportive of free trade and the TPA bill, which was shepherded by his close ally Ryan, and he is pushing for the legislation in closed meetings.

TPA passage key to jobs, exports and Obama’s AgendaWill Marshall, President of the Progressive Policy Institute, April 17, 2015, Why trade is in the national interest, CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/opinions/marshall-trade-national-interest/, ACC. 4-30-2015Withstanding intense pressure from anti-trade "progressives'' -- an oxymoron if ever there was one -- Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, has struck a deal with Congressional Republicans to move a bipartisan trade promotion authority bill.Wyden's display of grit is good news for the cooling U.S. economy, which needs a lift from export-led growth; for American workers, who need the jobs and rising pay that come with rising exports and stronger growth; and for President Barack Obama, who needs the authority to complete negotiations over three major trade pacts and get them through Congress.

TPA Good Checks China

TPA passage is key to checking China’s influenceJackie Northam, Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news, April 17, 2015, Why A Blockbuster Of A Trade Deal With Asia Matters, NPR News, http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/04/17/400387536/why-a-blockbuster-of-a-trade-deal-with-asia-matters, ACC. 4-30-2015President Obama on Friday acknowledged the concern about the free trade agreement, particularly among Democrats, because people have memories about outsourcing and job loss. Still, Obama said, "If we do not help to shape the rules so that our businesses and our workers can compete in those markets, then China will set up rules that advantage Chinese workers and Chinese businesses." China is not part of the TPP. The agreement giving the president fast-track authority comes less than a month after Beijing humiliated the U.S. and Japan by persuading dozens of countries, including key American allies, to join a regional infrastructure bank over objections by Washington, according to The Wall Street Journal.

TPA Good – Key to good trade practices

TPA is critical to protecting digital trade, jobs and environmental standardsWill Marshall, President of the Progressive Policy Institute, April 17, 2015, Why trade is in the national interest, CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/opinions/marshall-trade-national-interest/, ACC. 4-30-2015More generally, the new TPA updates those objectives to reflect changes in the global economy since trade authority lapsed back in 2007. It includes measures to deal with currency manipulation, to lower barriers to innovation, and to extend trade-promoting principles and rules to fast-growing digital trade -- a sector in which the United States enjoys immense comparative advantages. And it instructs U.S. negotiators to ensure that new agreements include the progressive labor and environmental standards that Democrats incorporated in recent trade agreements, and requires that these standards be embedded in the main body of the agreements and be fully enforceable under their rules.

TPA Good – Key to TPP

TPA is essential to TPP and Obama’s Asia policyMina Pollmann, Editorial Assistant at The Diplomat & Ellsworth Bunker Fellow with the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, April 28, 2015, Will Congress Kill the 'Rebalance to Asia'?,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/will-congress-kill-the-rebalance-to-asia/, ACC. 4-29-2015With Washington D.C. all abuzz preparing for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s upcoming visit – which will include an official summit meeting with President Barack Obama and a joint congressional address – one of the top issues in the Beltway these days is the question of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which could make or break negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP, a trade deal being negotiated among 12 states including the United States and Japan, would cover a third of world trade. Many policymakers and scholars consider TPP a critical component of the U.S. “rebalance” to Asia, and thus argue the negotiations should be seen in strategic as well as economic terms. As such, getting TPA, which will allow Congress to only vote up-or-down on any negotiated deal – precluding them from making any last-minute amendments – is seen as critical to the success of the Obama administration’s Asia policy.

TPP Good – Checks China

TPP is central to checking China’s influence, human rights, labor rights and environmental protectionsWill Marshall, President of the Progressive Policy Institute, April 17, 2015, Why trade is in the national interest, CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/opinions/marshall-trade-national-interest/, ACC. 4-30-2015But Obama is nothing if not a realist, and he recognizes that globalization is here to stay, and that America cannot prosper in splendid isolation. Rather than railing ineffectually against trade, he's urged Democrats to view trade agreements as opportunities to ensure fair treatment for U.S. companies and workers, and to advance progressive goals like human rights, labor rights and environmental protection. He took that approach in winning Congressional approval for bilateral trade pacts with South Korea and Columbia in 2011.What do anti-trade-deal liberals like Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, hope to accomplish by opposing Obama's trade agenda? Killing TPP won't keep America from trading more with the world's fastest-growing economies. Instead, it will simply mean that trade will proceed with fewer and less progressive rules -- or worse, under rules imposed by the region's economic powerhouse: China. Will Beijing be more concerned about U.S. workers than Washington?

TPP Good – U.S. Leadership

TPP key to US leadership in AsiaMina Pollmann, Editorial Assistant at The Diplomat & Ellsworth Bunker Fellow with the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, April 28, 2015, Will Congress Kill the 'Rebalance to Asia'?,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/will-congress-kill-the-rebalance-to-asia/, ACC. 4-29-2015As Sheila Smith has said, the consequences of not securing TPP would be severe because it would send a signal that the United States is not actually that serious about “rebalancing” to Asia. The “rebalance” is not just a military strategy or “containment” strategy, but a whole-of-government effort to fully integrate the United States in the economically fastest growing region of the world. Another risk of the TPP failing, as Adam Posen points out, is the risk that the momentum for regional order-building could shift in China’s favor if TPP is not secured. However, in the long-term, the U.S. commitment to Asia will appear all the more credible after it has passed the crucible of intensive domestic debate. Japan, though appreciative of the United States commending the importance of the “alliance” and lauding “common values,” would really feel much more comfortable with a United States that is bound to Japan out of its own economic self-interest. The rough-and-tumble debates we can expect in the Senate and the House over the next few weeks – though a significant difficulty – can also be seen as an opportunity for the Obama administration to publicly make the strongest case possible to the public that TPP is really in the interest of the United States.

TPP is key to U.S. economic leadership in AsiaJohn Hudson and Jamilia Trindle, Senior reporters for Foreign Policy, April 29, 2015, “Japan’s Abe Sells Trade Deal to Congress,” ForeignPolicy.com, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/29/japans-abe-sells-trade-deal-to-congress/, ACC. 4-30-2015“The U.S. and Japan must take the lead,” said Abe, the first Japanese leader to address both houses of Congress since World War II. “We must take the lead to build a market that is fair, dynamic, sustainable, and is also free from the arbitrary intentions of any nation.” Abe painted a picture of Japan as the rule-abiding, democratic partner for the U.S. in forging standards for trade in Asia. Abe’s description casts Japan as the Asian country with the same economic values as the U.S., as opposed to China, though Abe mentioned Asia’s biggest economy only in passing. Advocates of the trade deal argue that the U.S. and Japan need to write the rules for business in Asia, lest Beijing do it for them. Both Abe and President Barack Obama have touted their progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during the Japanese leader’s visit to Washington. But no breakthroughs have been announced on the significant sticking points that still exist in the negotiations, namely agriculture and automobiles. Obama didn’t dodge this obstacle, saying pointedly Tuesday that he’d like to see more U.S. cars on Japanese streets.

TPP Bad – China Threat Kon Internal

Their TPP scenario mirrors congressional threat rhetoric is operates to accumulate and solidify as an imbedded feature of American governance and institutionsPeter Harris, Visiting Lecturer in Politics at Earlham College, May 1, 2015, “Weaponized: The "China Card" Makes Its Return to U.S. Politics,” National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/weaponized-the-china-card-makes-its-return-us-politics-12783, ACC. 5-1-2015Today, the China card is being played once again. Interestingly, though, it is being played by politicians from both parties. Some (primarily Democrats) seek to associate China with the downsides of economic openness—outsourcing jobs, declining living standards, rising inequality and so forth—while others (mostly Republicans, but also the Obama administration in the case of the TPP) implicitly cast China as a geopolitical foe, a rival that ought to be contained using the full array of foreign policy tools: diplomatic, military and economic. Either way, China is a threat. Few and far between are those willing to speak in favor of a strong U.S.-China partnership. It is nothing new to lament that the debate over the TPP has been muddied by unhelpful references to China. The Economist, for example, predictably has insisted that the TPP be evaluated on its merits as a free trade deal, not as a geopolitical anti-China pact. But the weaponization of China has continued unabated. Meanwhile, the destructive effects of weaponizing China go far beyond the debate over free trade. Over time, relentlessly negative rhetoric about China will accumulate and solidify. Anti-Chinese images will become hardened fixtures of the U.S. political landscape, topographical features of the political environment that will make conflictual U.S.-China relations much more likely to occur in the future. Should subsequent generations of U.S. leaders ever seek to build domestic support for cooperative relations with China, they will face an uphill struggle. An anti-Chinese institutional bias is congealing.

TPP Bad – Won’t solve currency manipulation

TPP does not include sufficient provisions to prevent currency manipulationJohn Hudson and Jamilia Trindle, Senior reporters for Foreign Policy, April 29, 2015, “Japan’s Abe Sells Trade Deal to Congress,” ForeignPolicy.com, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/29/japans-abe-sells-trade-deal-to-congress/, ACC. 4-30-2015In the last 24 hours, Abe’s pitch on the need to break down trade barriers within a group of nations that make up 40 percent of the world’s economy has fallen on deaf ears in the House Democratic caucus, which is seizing on the TPP’s lack of provisions addressing currency manipulation.On the eve of his speech, a group of Democrats accused Tokyo of manipulating the yen to boost exports — a claim that is disputed by economists but has nevertheless galvanized Democrats skeptical of global trade. “No doubt in Prime Minister Abe’s speech we will hear a strong plea for Congress to fast-track the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.). “What we will not hear is anything about Japan’s own history of anti-free trade policy.”While avoiding the issue of currency manipulation entirely, Abe did seek to allay concerns that a TPP deal would spawn a race to the bottom among competing Pacific Rim countries.

***General Adv. Ans., Ext., & Scenarios***

Biodiversity

Biodiversity impacts

Ocean life is on the brink of collapse, but it’s not too lateJames Macdonald, Staff Writer, March 2, 2015, “Can international marine reserves save the ocean?,” Daily JStore, http://daily.jstor.org/international-marine-reserve-ocean/, ACC. 4-29-2015The oceans may be on the verge of biological collapse, according to sobering new research from UC Santa Barbara. The researchers believe that marine life may suffer extinctions not seen since the end of the Cretaceous period. Given the horrendous damage inflicted on the oceans— climate change, acidification, plastic pollution, industrial trawling, coastal destruction, etc.,— it’s hard to argue with that conclusion. However it may not be too late to turn things around. The proposed solution, a series of large ocean reserves, designed with climate change in mind, poses it own challenge. Can it work?

Losing biodiversity makes human survive impossibleAndreas Wilson-Späth, PhD in geochemistry, April 28, 2015, “Biodiversity matters,” News 24, http://www.news24.com/Columnists/AndreasSpath/Biodiversity-matters-20150428, ACC. 4-28-2015And that’s where you’d be fatally mistaken. Biodiversity happens to be critical to the stability and productivity of entire ecosystems; ecosystems that provide us with a wide range of goods and services without which we simply could not survive, from food, fuel, medicines and clean water to carbon storage and protection against storm surges and floods. While certain particular species may be especially important to the viability of some ecosystems, in general, the more biodiverse and the more intact an ecosystem, the more life-giving goods and services it provides.

Biodiversity directly affects the interconnectedness of all life on the planetTamara Dietrich, Staff Writer, April 28, 2015, “VIMS ecologist finds biodiversity more important than ever,” Daily Press, http://www.dailypress.com/news/science/dp-nws-biodiversity-vims-20150427-story.html, ACC. 4-28-2015An ecologist at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in Gloucester Point says this is but one small example of the interconnectedness and benefits of rich biodiversity — or the wide variety of organisms that live on our planet. The importance of biodiversity is not a new concept, but Jonathan Lefcheck and several colleagues have taken what he says is the first systemic look at how biodiversity and its many interconnected processes keep ecosystems healthy and functioning. Lefcheck is lead author of their paper, which just appeared in the natural sciences journal Nature Communications.

Biodiversity provides the building blocks for all life on the planetAdam Force, Staff Writer, March 17, 2015, “New report connects human health to biodiversity protection,” Mongabay.com, http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0317-force-biodiversity-health.html, ACC. 4-28-2015The link between human well-being and biological diversity is considerable and anything but simple. The wide range of services our ecosystems and biodiversity provide make them the building blocks for all life on Earth. However, today there is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that biodiversity loss is happening at unprecedented rates. The report details the relationship between biodiversity and human health by explaining how one impacts the other, including impacts on water and air quality, food production and nutrition, microbial diversity and noncommunicable diseases, infectious diseases, medicines, as well as mental, physical, and cultural well-being.

Climate Change

A2: Stalling emissions / warming pause

Stalling emissions are non-unique and on the upswingShannon Hall, Staff Writer, March 23, 2015, “To stop climate change, flat CO2 emissions aren't enough, say scientists,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0323/To-stop-climate-change-flat-CO2-emissions-aren-t-enough-say-scientists, ACC. 4-28-2015Global emissions of carbon dioxide — one of the leading causes of global warming — stalled in 2014, marking the first time in 40 years that there was no climb in CO2 emissions during a time of economic growth. The results suggest that efforts to reduce emissions may be on the upswing, but experts say the situation is not so simple. In fact, some scientists say that the findings, announced last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA), represents only one data point and that the overall trend in carbon dioxide emissions is continuing upward. Global CO2 emissions have stalled three times in the 40 years in which the IEA has been collecting data: in the early 1980s, in 1992 and in 2009. But each of those periods correlated with a downturn in the economy, whereas last year, the global economy expanded by 3 percent. This kind of separation between economic growth and CO2 emissions could be a hopeful sign, according to groups dedicated to combatting climate change.

Warming pauses are just “wiggles” or short-term variations that skew climate modelsWenhong Li, Assistant Professor of Climate at Duke University, and Patrick Brown, PhD student, April 21, 2015, “Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models,” Duke Environment (Duke University), https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models, ACC. 4-30-2015The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures -- caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors -- can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade. The researchers say these “climate wiggles” can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and accentuate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends. The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

Any global warming “pause” will be short-term and returnJames Maynard, Staff Writer, March 1, 2015, “Global Warming Has Paused But Don't Celebrate Yet: Here's Why,” Tech Times, http://www.techtimes.com/articles/36341/20150301/global-warming-paused-dont-celebrate-heres-why.htm, ACC. 4-30-2015Global warming seems to have paused since the turn of the millennium, but climatologists believe this slowdown is not a reason for celebration. The Pacific Ocean is cooling, which could be offsetting some of the warming caused by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, researchers believe. El Niño cycles in the Pacific Ocean warm the water, and the last of these cycles took place between 1997 and 1998. Since that time, the world's largest ocean has exhibited a cool phase. However, these conditions will not last, and once the cycle reverses its trend, global warming will once again start to heat the planet, researchers note.

Warming inevitable – Adaptation Key

Accelerating climate change is inevitable and we must adaptThe Guardian, Staff Writer, March 9, 2015, “Global warming 'set to speed up to rates not seen for 1,000 years',” http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/09/global-warming-set-to-speed-up-to-rates-not-seen-for-1000-years, ACC. 4-30-2015People need to brace themselves for accelerating climate change that could alter the way we live even over short time scales, scientists have warned. New evidence suggests the rate at which temperatures are rising in the northern hemisphere could be 0.25C per decade by 2020 - a level not seen for at least 1,000 years. The analysis, based on a combination of data from more than two dozen climate simulation models from around the world, looked at the rate of change in 40-year long time spans. Lead scientist Dr Steve Smith, from the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, said: “We focused on changes over 40-year periods, which is similar to the lifetime of houses and human-built infrastructure such as buildings and roads.

Climate change destroys biodiversity

Climate change will soon cause the 1/6th of all species to go extinctionAlister Doyle, Staff Writer, April 30, 2015, “Climate change could push a sixth of species to extinction: study,” Reuters, http://in.reuters.com/airticle/2015/04/30/us-climatechange-extinction-idINKBN0NL2G020150430, ACC. 4-30-2015Climate change could drive up to a sixth of animals and plants on Earth to extinction unless governments cut rising greenhouse gas emissions, according to a U.S. study published on Thursday. Species in South America, Australia and New Zealand are most at risk, since many live in small areas or cannot easily move away to adapt to heatwaves, droughts, floods or rising seas, said the report in the journal Science. The study averaged out 131 previous studies of climate change, whose projections of the number of species that could be lost to climate change ranged from zero to 54 percent of species worldwide - too wide to be useful in designing conservation policies. Overall, it found that one in six species could be driven to extinction if greenhouse gas emissions are unchecked and temperatures rise by 4.3 degrees Celsius (7.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times by 2100, in line with one scenario from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

China / India outweigh U.S. emissions

Empirically, China and India emission will outpace U.S. reductionsShannon Hall, Staff Writer, March 23, 2015, “To stop climate change, flat CO2 emissions aren't enough, say scientists,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0323/To-stop-climate-change-flat-CO2-emissions-aren-t-enough-say-scientists, ACC. 4-28-2015In the United States, energy-related CO2 emissions fell during seven of the past 23 years . Emissions in 2013 (and 2014) were higher than in 2012 but still 10 percent lower than they were in 2005, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As such, global increases during this time period are typically attributed to the rapid industrialization of countries such as China and India.

A2: Reducing emission key

Even if emissions are cut today, GHG concentrations would continue to increase for decadesShannon Hall, Staff Writer, March 23, 2015, “To stop climate change, flat CO2 emissions aren't enough, say scientists,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0323/To-stop-climate-change-flat-CO2-emissions-aren-t-enough-say-scientists, ACC. 4-28-2015It would take about 100 years for the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to reduce to 37 percent of current levels, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This means that even if emissions are cut today, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would still increase for decades. It's like adding water to a bathtub: If you add more water than the drain is able to empty, the tub will eventually overflow.

Climate change impact answers

IPCC impacts are distorted. Middle of the road scenarios are more likelyWenhong Li, Assistant Professor of Climate at Duke University, and Patrick Brown, PhD student, April 21, 2015, “Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models,” Duke Environment (Duke University), https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models, ACC. 4-30-2015A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely , at least for now,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “But this could change.”

Climate change does not cause species extinctions

There’s no internal link between climate change and rising extinctionsAlister Doyle, Staff Writer, April 30, 2015, “Climate change could push a sixth of species to extinction: study,” Reuters, http://in.reuters.com/airticle/2015/04/30/us-climatechange-extinction-idINKBN0NL2G020150430, ACC. 4-30-2015Jamie Carr, a species expert at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), said the study was a "very well- educated guess", but that it was impossible to isolate the impact of warming from the host of other threats. So far, he said that no species had been driven to extinction solely by a changing climate. The IUCN says warming contributed to the extinction of the golden toad, last seen on a Costa Rican mountaintop in 1989.

A2: Ice Age

There is zero chance of their ice age scenarioChris Mooney, Staff Writer, March 23, 2015, “Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/23/global-warming-is-now-slowing-down-the-circulation-of-the-oceans-with-potentially-dire-consequences/, ACC. 4-30-2015The system above has a key vulnerability. What keeps everything churning in the North Atlantic is the fact that cold salt water is more dense than warm water — so it sinks. However, if too much ice melts in the region — from, say Greenland — a freshening of the cold salt water could occur. If the water is less salty it will also be less dense, reducing its tendency to sink below the surface. This could slow or even eventually shut down the circulation. In the scientifically panned 2004 blockbuster film “The Day After Tomorrow,” it is precisely such a shutdown that triggers a New Ice Age, and utter global disaster and chaos. That’s not going to happen, say scientists. Not remotely.

Economy

Economy is improving now

After a brief stumble, the economy is picking upLucia Mutikani, Staff Writer, April 30, 2015, “U.S. data suggest economy picking up steam after weak first quarter,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/30/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0NL1JT20150430, ACC. 4-30-2015The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits tumbled to a 15-year low last week and consumer spending rose in March, signs the economy was regaining momentum after stumbling badly in the first quarter. The economic outlook was brightened further by another report on Thursday showing a solid increase in wages in the first quarter, which should keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this year. "This morning's reports all point to an economy that is doing a lot better than the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP suggests," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The economy will rebound in the second quarterMartin Crutsinger and Christopher S. Rugaberap, Economics Writers, April 30, 2015, “Why some trends sapping US growth may persist, others won't,” News Observer, http://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article19861296.html, ACC. 4-30-2015Most economists expect growth to rebound in the coming months as short-lived problems, such as a West Coast port strike, dissipate. But the rebound isn't likely to be that healthy, as the high value of the dollar and other trends continue to weigh on growth. Several economists slashed their forecasts for the April-June quarter to 2.5 percent from roughly 3.5 percent.

Multiple factors will boost the second quarter economyLucia Mutikani, Staff Writer, April 30, 2015, “U.S. data suggest economy picking up steam after weak first quarter,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/30/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0NL1JT20150430, ACC. 4-30-2015Separately, the Commerce Department said consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4 percent last month as households stepped up purchases of big-ticket items like automobiles. The increase followed a 0.2 percent gain in February and indicated that consumer spending picked up momentum at the end of the first quarter, which bodes well for consumption in the April-June period. While that should boost growth in the second quarter, the rebound in economic activity could be crimped by an inventory overhang, a strong dollar and ongoing spending cuts in the energy sector, which has been hit by lower oil prices.

No risk of financial meltdown

No risk of a global financial meltdownLarry Elliott, Staff Writer, April 8, 2015, “Can the world economy survive without fossil fuels?,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/apr/08/can-world-economy-survive-without-fossil-fuels, ACC. 4-30-2015The odds are still against such a financial market meltdown. In part, that is because investors will probably move slowly. In part, it is because the reserves of the big western fossil fuel companies make up only a small chunk of the global total, and it is hard to see Vladimir Putin being too troubled by a divestment campaign.

Economic growth compatible with fighting climate change

Economic growth and protection against climate change can go hand in handLarry Elliott, Staff Writer, April 8, 2015, “Can the world economy survive without fossil fuels?,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/apr/08/can-world-economy-survive-without-fossil-fuels, ACC. 4-30-2015“We absolutely can have growth and protection of the climate at the same time, and in doing so we will construct a much better form of economic activity and growth in terms of clean air, less-congested cities and so on,” Stern says. “If we say the only way to handle this is to stop growing, we will be factually wrong, because if we stopped growing but didn’t break the relationship between activity and emissions, we wouldn’t be tackling climate change.”

Economic decline inevitable

Student loan debts will inevitably cripple the economySuzanne Woolley, Staff Writer, April 30, 2015, “How Student Loans Could Cripple the U.S. Economy,” Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/how-student-loans-could-cripple-the-u-s-economy, ACC. 4-30-2015The parade of graduation commencement speakers starts soon, and hopefully Rick Rieder won’t be among them. Because the message from BlackRock’s chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income to all those fresh-scrubbed graduates would be a big downer: Your student debt could cripple the U.S. economy. Rieder doesn’t actually blame college grads for student debt reaching almost $1.2 trillion last year, its highest level ever. It’s what they and their parents must borrow to pay for college—what he calls “this long-term unmitigated acceleration in the cost”—that he targets. It’s something people should be concerned about even if no tuition or student loan looms in their future, he says. Rieder cites four interrelated reasons why college debt could hurt economic growth.

Fossil Fuels & Renewables (general)

Renewables outpace fossil fuels now

Renewables outpace fossil fuels globally and will continue to expand rapidlyTom Randall, Staff Writer, April 14, 2015, “Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables,” Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables, ACC. 4-30-2015The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there's no going back. The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.

Fossil fuels are losing out to renewable globallyNathanael Greene, Natural Resources Defense Council, April 21, 2015, “Renewables Beat Fossil Fuels Second Year in a Row,” EcoWatch, http://ecowatch.com/2015/04/21/renewables-beat-fossil-fuels-bloomberg/, ACC. 4-30-2015Start spreading the news: The world is now deploying more renewable energy in the production of electricity—more wind and solar power, in particular—than it is fossil fuels. And it has been since 2013, according to the analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. That year, the world added 143 gigawatts of new renewables capacity , compared to the 141 gigawatts of power generated by coal, natural gas and oil combined.

Electricity is shifting to renewablesNathanael Greene, Natural Resources Defense Council, April 21, 2015, “Renewables Beat Fossil Fuels Second Year in a Row,” EcoWatch, http://ecowatch.com/2015/04/21/renewables-beat-fossil-fuels-bloomberg/, ACC. 4-30-2015Not only that, but by 2030, we’ll likely add a whopping four times as much renewable energy generating capacity as fossil fuel capacity, the Bloomberg folks say. “The electricity system is shifting to clean,” Michael Liebreich, of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said at the company’s The Future of Energy Summit 2015 in New York City last week. “Despite the change in oil and gas prices, there is going to be a substantial build-out of renewable energy that is likely to be an order of magnitude larger than the build-out of coal and gas.”

China – Fossil fuels inevitable

Chinese fossil fuels are inevitable. We can only encourage can only encourage a shift to renewablesMichael T. Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, April 16, 2015, “Four Reasons Why the Transition From Fossil Fuels to a Green Energy Era Is Gaining Traction,” Truthout, http://www.truth-out.org/author/itemlist/user/47413, ACC. 4-30-2015Of equal importance is China's evident determination to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels - a critical change in stance, given its projected energy needs in the decades to come. According to the DoE, China's share of world energy consumption is expected to jump from an already impressive 19% in 2010 to 27% in 2040, with most of its added energy coming from fossil fuels. Should this indeed occur, China would consume another 88 quadrillion British thermal units of such energy over the next 30 years, or 43% of all added fossil fuel consumption worldwide. So any significant moves by China to reduce its reliance on those energy sources, as now being promised by senior government officials, would have an outsized impact on the global energy equation.

China is increasing renewables

China is leading the global transition to renewablesMichael T. Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, April 16, 2015, “Four Reasons Why the Transition From Fossil Fuels to a Green Energy Era Is Gaining Traction,” Truthout, http://www.truth-out.org/author/itemlist/user/47413, ACC. 4-30-2015As in the United States, the Chinese leadership will face opposition from entrenched fossil fuel interests, as well as local government structures. However, their evident determination to reduce reliance on oil and coal represents a real change of mood and thinking. It's likely to result in a far different energy landscape than the one laid out by the Department of Energy and, until recently, most other experts. Despite repeated predictions of ever-increasing coal consumption, for instance, China actually burned less coal in 2014 than in the previous year , the first such decline in decades. At the same time, it increased its spending on renewable forms of energy by an impressive 33% in 2014, investing a total of $83.3 billion - the most ever spent by a single country in one year -to a renewable future. If China leads the way globally and such trends continue, the transition from fossil fuels to renewables will occur far sooner than expected.

Terrorism

Terrorism ans. - Fear of terrorism = bad policies

The fear of terrorism gets manipulated by political leaders, resulting in disastrous policies that also fail. History is on our side.Leonard Weiss, visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and a member of the National Advisory Board of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, March 2015, “On fear and nuclear terrorism,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 71(2) 75–87.Human history displays many examples of political leaders who manipulate public fears to gain support for policies that, in the end, produce disastrous outcomes for large numbers of people. Racist fears helped Nazis obtain support for the oppression and ultimate murder of millions of Jews, Slavs, homosexuals, and Roma. Eliminating Nazi predations required a war that cost 50 million lives. Excessive fear of communism built support for a war in Vietnam that resulted in two million lives lost in that country and another two million lost on the killing fields of a destabilized Cambodia. Today, the fear of terrorism brought on by 9/11, coupled with the fear of nuclear weapons, has become the source of policies that threaten the destruction of American democracy because of a lack of perspective in the public discussion of these issues.

Exaggerating the threat of terrorism and the Islamic State make them more likelyEd Kilgore, managing editor for the Democratic Strategist, March 20, 2015, “Exaggerated Perceptions of “Threats” Are Threatening to National Security,” Washington Monthly, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2015_03/exaggerated_perceptions_of_ thr054718.php, ACC. 5-1-2015Perhaps unfortunately, American politicians cannot talk that way. Yes, we’ve been very lucky in that compared with an awful lot of other countries we’ve suffered relatively low military casualties in our wars (aside, of course, from the Civil War), and extremely limited civilian casualties. But ironically, that has produced a low tolerance for risk that in turn is more “emboldening” to terrorists and other enemies than all the objective weaknesses in the world. It is our exaggerated sense of the threat posed by IS that feeds its ambition and sense of power—and potentially its actual power if it obtains leverage over us or our people. When politicians whip up fears about terrorists, they are actually whipping up vulnerability to terrorists, particularly when they have nothing in the way of any practical strategy for defeating them, beyond insulting their religion and raging at Barack Obama for not making them all disappear.

Nuclear terrorism ans. – No risk

The risk of nuclear terrorism is all spin and fantasyLeonard Weiss, visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and a member of the National Advisory Board of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, March 2015, “On fear and nuclear terrorism,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 71(2) 75–87.Terrorists who believe the commission of violence helps their cause have access to many explosive materials and conventional weapons to ply their “trade.” If public sympathy is important to their cause, an apparent plan or commission of mass murder is not going to help them, and indeed will make their enemies even more implacable, reducing the prospects of achieving their goals. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists is not like the acquisition of conventional weapons; it requires significant time, planning, resources, and expertise, with no guarantees that an acquired device would work. It requires putting aside at least some aspects of a group’s more immediate activities and goals for an attempted operation that no terrorist group has previously accomplished. While absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence (as then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld kept reminding us during the search for Saddam’s nonexistent nuclear weapons), it is reasonable to conclude that the fear of nuclear terrorism has swamped realistic consideration of the threat. As Brian Jenkins, a longtime observer of terrorist groups, wrote in 2008: Nuclear terrorism ...turns out to be a world of truly worrisome particles of truth. Yet it is also a world of fantasies, nightmares, urban legends, fakes, hoaxes, scams, stings, mysterious substances, terrorist boasts, sensational claims, description of vast conspiracies, allegations of coverups, lurid headlines, layers of misinformation and disinformation. Much is inconclusive or contradictory. Only the terror is real.

You should be skeptical of terrorism and lone-wolf scenarios. The risks are exceedingly rareMathew Hardwood, Senior Writer/Editor for the ACLU, February 8, 2015, “Terrorism’s new boogeyman: Charles Krauthammer and the toxic myth of the “lone wolf”,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/2015/02/08/terrorisms_new_boogie_man_charles_krauthammer_ and_the_toxic_myth_of_the_lone_wolf_partner/, ACC. 5-1-2015Like all violent crime, individual terrorism represents a genuine risk, just an exceedingly rare and minimal one. It’s not the sort of thing that the government should be able to build whole new, intrusive surveillance programs on or use as an excuse for sending in agents to infiltrate communities. National programs now being set up to combat lone-wolf terrorism have a way of wildly exaggerating its prevalence and dangers — and in the end are only likely to exacerbate the problem. For Americans to concede more of their civil liberties in return for “security” against lone wolves wouldn’t be a trade; it would be fraud. The “literature” on both terrorism and the lone wolf should be approached with a healthy degree of skepticism. To this day, there is little consensus on what exactly terrorism is ; the same is true of the lone-wolf variety.

Exaggerating the threat of terrorism and the Islamic State make them more likelyEd Kilgore, managing editor for the Democratic Strategist, March 20, 2015, “Exaggerated Perceptions of “Threats” Are Threatening to National Security,” Washington Monthly, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2015_03/exaggerated_perceptions_of_ thr054718.php, ACC. 5-1-2015

Perhaps unfortunately, American politicians cannot talk that way. Yes, we’ve been very lucky in that compared with an awful lot of other countries we’ve suffered relatively low military casualties in our wars (aside, of course, from the Civil War), and extremely limited civilian casualties. But ironically, that has produced a low tolerance for risk that in turn is more “emboldening” to terrorists and other enemies than all the objective weaknesses in the world. It is our exaggerated sense of the threat posed by IS that feeds its ambition and sense of power—and potentially its actual power if it obtains leverage over us or our people. When politicians whip up fears about terrorists, they are actually whipping up vulnerability to terrorists, particularly when they have nothing in the way of any practical strategy for defeating them, beyond insulting their religion and raging at Barack Obama for not making them all disappear.

Fear trades-off with nuclear war focus

There is no risk of nuclear terrorism. Focusing here trades-off with attention to interstate confictsMichael Ruhle, Head of Energy Security Section at the NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division, February 15, 2015, “The Nuclear Reality,” IP Journal, https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/ip-journal/topics/nuclear-reality, ACC. 5-1-2015Second, since the end of the Cold War, and even more since the 9/11 attacks, there has been an obsession with non-state actors. The spectre of “nuclear terrorism” was a healthy reminder of the limits of nuclear deterrence when dealing with adversaries who are willing to die for their cause. It also helped to galvanize international attention on nuclear security, resulting in initiatives to secure fissile material. Yet it remains doubtful whether the threat is really that serious, particularly when compared to chemical or biological ones. Above all, the focus on “undeterrable” non-state actors further diverted attention away from classic inter-state conflict scenarios.