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Highlights Growth pick-up likely after first-quarter stall
Fundamental support for rapid growth in aerospace
production remains in place – airlines are awaiting
delivery of already-ordered, more fuel-efficient planes;
demand for air travel is likely to continue expanding
rapidly as the number of middle-class households
increases in emerging countries, thereby driving
additional orders; and a gradual easing in the recession
should buoy further business and leisure travel demand
across the developed world.
However, Boeing’s well-publicised battery problem with
its 787 Dreamliner was clearly a factor behind the first-
quarter stall in aerospace production globally (the US
accounts for half of global output), although European
output was generally strong on the back of Airbus order
fulfilment. With Boeing playing catch-up through the
rest of 2013 and into 2014, the forecast profile is now
more “V-shaped”, with global aerospace output in 2013
as a whole now seen rising by just under 3% ahead of
11% growth next year.
Forecast risks have shifted to the downside, as delivery
momentum may prove harder than expected to rebuild.
Aerospace: Industry Briefing
China4%
Russia6%
India0%
Brazil2%
Japan1%
US48%
Spain1%
UK10%
Italy2%
France4%
Germany7%
EU-EE1%
Other14%
Aerospace: Value added in 2012 (US$ 2005 prices)
Source: Oxford Economics
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Developed
BRICs
Eastern Europe
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
World
2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022
Germany 4.5 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 2.0France 2.7 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 2.1Italy 2.5 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 1.7UK 3.6 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.9Spain 1.5 -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.0
EU15 3.1 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.4
United States 2.2 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 4.6Japan 3.5 -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.5
Developed countries 2.3 6.8 4.0 11.0 5.5 4.1 4.2 3.9
Eastern Europe (EU12) 7.9 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.3
Brazil 15.4 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.6Russia 6.9 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 6.4India 13.9 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.9China 19.0 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.1
BRICs 11.1 8.1 -3.6 17.1 8.0 7.1 7.1 6.3
Emerging Markets 8.9 7.4 -2.1 12.9 7.3 6.5 6.3 5.7
World 3.3 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 4.3
AerospaceAnnual percentage changes
Note: Output is measured in value-added terms in 2005 prices, unless otherwise stated.
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 2
Forecast overview Weaker-than-expected start to 2013…
Dragged down by adverse developments in the US,
global aerospace production stalled in the early months
of this year. Indeed, it declined by 3.2% in the first
quarter, to stand just 1.7% higher than a year ago – the
slowest pace of growth since the global recovery began
in 2010. Furthermore, US output data for April showed
further weakness, with the major contributory factor being
Boeing’s problem with the lithium-ion batteries on its 787
Dreamliner aircraft. Boeing’s Q1 results showed a 3%
annual revenue drop as the 787 halt could not be offset
by 737 and 777 deliveries. The fifty already-delivered
planes were grounded from January to late-April at least,
when a solution to the issue was approved and Boeing’s
maintenance teams around the world started to fit it and
thereby allow the planes to go back into service.
Deliveries of new aircraft are now also re-starting, with
Boeing now trying to catch up with scheduled order
fulfilments over the coming 12-18 months.
Such negative developments overshadowed other more
positive trends elsewhere. Airlines have continued to
place orders with both Airbus and Boeing. For example,
British Airways, Chinese airlines, Turkish Airlines,
Ryanair and Lion Air have all placed substantial orders
so far this year, adding to order books which were
already healthy. Driving such orders, prospects for airline
profitability this year have improved due to lower, if still
high, jet fuel prices; better revenues on the back of rising
passenger demand (especially from emerging markets)
and rebounding cargo traffic; and improving load factors.
As a result, IATA upgraded again in late-March its
forecast for global airline profits to US$10.6bn for 2013,
up from US$7.6bn last year.
In addition, production trends across Europe have
generally been stronger than in the US, as Airbus looks
to fulfil orders. Germany in particular posted a dynamic
performance through to March, while the underlying trend
for the UK aerospace sector is positive (albeit with some
month-to-month volatility). EADS, the parent company of
Airbus, posted increased first-quarter profits, with cash
flows projected to improve in the coming quarters as
more aircraft (notably A380s delayed by the rectification
of wing cracks) are delivered. Moreover, its A350
programme appears to be on course to deliver a new
wide-body plane to the Airbus portfolio, with test flights
likely this summer.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Developed
BRICs
Eastern Europe
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
World
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
EU15
Japan
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output growth
Forecast
US
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Aerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc.
Source: Oxford Economics
World: Output growth by sub-sectors
Forecast
Aerospace
3
…producing a more “V-shaped” profile…
The net result of these recent developments is to
produce a more “V-shaped” profile for the global
aerospace industry, with production and deliveries
playing catch-up over the coming quarters to fulfil
orders already placed. Although the second quarter is
off to a slow start in the US, momentum is seen
rebuilding through the rest of this year and well into
2014. For 2013 as a whole, global growth is now
expected to be just under 3% for aerospace output –
down two percentage points on our February forecast –
but the expansion in 2014 is likely to be over 11%
given the near-term potential for nearly completed
aircraft to be delivered now recent safety issues have
been addressed. Overall, aerospace growth is still set
to be driven by civilian aircraft demand, with the
sequester in the US and pressure on other countries’
military procurement budgets dragging down the
military sub-sector.
…but still support for medium-term growth
Looking beyond the short term, aerospace remains
likely to be one of the world’s most dynamic industrial
sectors. On the supply side, with jet fuel prices unlikely
to fall much further and noise and other environmental
regulations tightening, airlines continue to look to
renew their fleets with quieter, more fuel-efficient
planes. Although the future use of lithium-ion batteries
is in doubt, new composite materials and better
designs are set to characterise the next generation of
aircraft. Indeed, further orders are already being added
to healthy order books at Boeing and Airbus in order to
benefit from the cost and operational advantages of the
latest planes.
Turning to demand for air travel, the on-going rise in
the number of middle-class households in emerging
countries is producing a surge in potential customers.
Although high-speed rail offers competition on some
routes, international leisure and business travel from
emerging countries to the sights and shops in
developed countries has great potential to expand
even further. Finally, although the developed world’s
macroeconomic recovery continues to disappoint, the
gradual easing in the recession should buoy additional
travel demand over the coming years, especially from
the still-dormant Eurozone. Tourism has recovered well
from the recession but there remains scope for further
gains in order to get back onto the earlier trend.
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Italy
UK Germany
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
ForecastFrance
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Slovak Republic
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Russia
Brazil
India
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output growth
Forecast
China
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 4
Forecast risks Despite the downgrade to growth prospects for this
year, it is still felt that the risks to the aerospace
forecast have shifted from being balanced to being
biased towards the downside. Solutions have been
found to recent safety issues but, even so, it may well
prove harder than expected to rebuild production
momentum in the near term (when already-delivered
aircraft are being adjusted). Furthermore, additional
teething problems cannot be ruled out as novel
materials and designs are increasingly used in
production and delivered to customers.
The impact of defence cutbacks on overall aerospace
production has so far been muted but this may reflect
the long procurement cycle for such equipment, with
budget funds earmarked many years ahead of delivery.
This slow-burning drag on sector growth may well
prove greater than expected, thereby curtailing
medium-term growth by more than is currently
envisaged.
On the upside, travel demand might grow even more
dynamically as household income levels in emerging
countries cross disposable income thresholds where
increased leisure spending becomes possible.
Where is aerospace production expanding fastest?
Where is aerospace production suffering the most?
Last year Next 5 yearsLithuania 59.9 Bahrain 20.5Slovakia 56.0 Korea 9.1
Korea 44.1 India 8.7Philippines 31.3 Estonia 8.5Romania 26.8 Hungary 8.4Chile 21.8 Ukraine 8.3Cyprus 20.7 Pakistan 8.1
Venezuela 18.3 Poland 7.7Brazil 17.6 China 7.3Vietnam 12.4 Russia 7.2
Aerospace - Top 10 fastest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)
Last year Next 5 yearsUruguay -29.8 Slovenia -4.5Bahrain -27.7 Cyprus -0.9
Greece -27.4 Philippines -0.4Slovenia -24.2 Belgium -0.1Japan -23.0 Egypt 0.0Saudi Arabia -17.9 Ireland 0.7Belgium -16.9 Latvia 0.8
Denmark -14.4 New Zealand 0.8Austria -10.4 Switzerland 1.0Estonia -9.6 Austria 1.0
Aerospace - Top 10 slowest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)
Aerospace
5
Risk Scenario analysis
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Aerospace% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
Shaky foundations for BRICs
Baseline
Forecast
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Aerospace% y/y
Eurozone tensions reach breaking point
Baseline
Forecast
Both civilian and military aerospace products have
quite long lead times (which can be over three years)
and, as such, are less vulnerable to short-term
changes in macroeconomic conditions. Governments
and airlines tend to take a strategic view when placing
such high-value orders, which they then tend to be
reluctant to postpone or cancel. This was evident in the
2008-09 downturn, which was both modest and short-
lived compared to other investment goods’ sectors.
This comparative resilience is evident when a shaking
of the foundations under the BRICs is considered. In
contrast to other industrial sectors, aerospace output
relative to baseline barely falls by more than GDP, as
manufacturers continue to fill existing orders (with few
of those either postponed or cancelled by airlines).
However, less buoyant conditions make it harder for
other aerospace firms to challenge the Boeing/Airbus
duopoly, with the Chinese aerospace industry in
particular showing slower growth as China’s
investment spending generally posts a more marked
and prolonged dip than in the baseline forecast.
Aerospace is most vulnerable to mounting Eurozone
tensions leading to exits. The resultant panic in
financial markets would curtail sharply business travel
demand and make the financing of aircraft purchases
extremely difficult. Airbus and also Boeing would be
likely to face order cancellations as airlines tried to stay
afloat as load factors decreased and existing fleets
were mothballed. Overall under this scenario, global
aerospace production would cumulatively be scaled
back by almost ten percentage points (relative to our
baseline forecast) over the five years to 2017.
Sitting between these two downside scenarios is the
case of central banks getting more than they
bargained for. Here, initial gains for aerospace this
year and in 2014 are more than offset by losses
thereafter, stemming especially from the problems
withdrawing QE causes financial markets. Holders of
government bonds (including banks) would suffer
significant capital losses as yields surged back from
current low levels, squeezing funds available for
aircraft purchases. Renewed advance economy
recessions could also trigger further military cutbacks,
as government borrowing surges again. -6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Aerospace% y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
Central banks get more than they bargained for
Baseline
Forecast
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 6
To end on a brighter note, under the golden age scenario,
aerospace growth would be boosted by almost 3%pts
cumulatively. Boeing and Airbus would both benefit from
improved business and consumer confidence, driving
dynamic air travel demand. Additional use of innovative
materials and fuels could boost orders further as airlines
look to refresh fleets and thereby cut fuel, environmental
and regulatory costs. In addition, against this brighter
backdrop, it should be easier for other manufacturers to
establish and expand aerospace production facilities (e.g.
in China and the other BRICs), with Boeing and Airbus
more relaxed about emerging competitors given the rapid
growth in their own production.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
World: Aerospace % y/y
Source : Oxford Economics
The golden age
Baseline
Forecast
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017US
Baseline 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1Shaky foundations for BRICs 2.9 12.6 5.4 4.1 5.0Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.0 13.0 3.5 -0.5 2.7Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.4 14.7 5.4 0.8 2.2The golden age 3.2 14.2 7.2 5.1 4.9
EU15Baseline 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5Shaky foundations for BRICs 6.9 8.3 4.3 3.1 2.7Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 7.0 8.6 3.1 -0.9 -1.6Central banks get more than they bargained for 7.0 9.0 5.6 2.7 1.9The golden age 7.1 9.6 5.6 3.5 2.6
JapanBaseline -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2Shaky foundations for BRICs -7.2 5.3 3.2 2.8 3.5Eurozone tensions reach breaking point -7.1 6.2 0.0 -4.5 0.5Central banks get more than they bargained for -6.8 8.3 4.3 -0.1 0.0The golden age -6.9 8.1 5.7 3.5 2.4
ChinaBaseline 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4Shaky foundations for BRICs 8.0 5.2 5.2 6.1 6.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 8.2 6.4 3.9 2.3 4.0Central banks get more than they bargained for 8.4 6.3 3.8 3.2 4.4The golden age 8.5 8.0 8.1 8.1 7.1
WorldBaseline 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6Shaky foundations for BRICs 2.8 10.7 5.1 4.2 4.5Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 2.8 11.3 3.4 -0.2 1.8Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.1 12.6 5.8 1.9 2.5The golden age 3.1 12.6 7.0 5.1 4.5
Aerospace% change from a year earlier
Aerospace
7
2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022
Austria 8.9 -10.4 -12.2 10.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.07Belgium 0.6 -16.9 -9.4 4.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.49Denmark -15.6 -14.4 9.6 5.0 3.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 0.03Finland -14.5 7.7 -0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 0.08France 2.7 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 6.89Germany 4.5 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 10.10Greece -7.0 -27.4 -9.0 7.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 5.2 0.23Ireland 3.2 -7.0 -15.9 9.1 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.9 0.03Italy 2.5 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 1.7 3.76Luxembourg -3.3 -2.7 -2.3 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 0.00Netherlands 6.1 6.9 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.37Portugal -2.1 -8.6 5.9 6.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.1 0.05Spain 1.5 -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 1.23Sweden -0.6 -4.9 -1.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.88UK 3.6 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 15.39EU15 3.1 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.4 39.59
Australia -3.0 10.8 -0.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.8Canada 0.2 2.9 0.4 5.8 6.5 5.8 4.6 4.7 7.9Japan 3.5 -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.5 1.24New Zealand -3.2 -5.9 -2.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 0.0Norway 4.0 11.5 6.7 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 0.38Switzerland -1.6 7.4 -0.6 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.2US 2.2 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 4.6 75.10
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 2.3 6.8 4.0 11.0 5.5 4.1 4.2 3.9 125.33
Bulgaria 29.8 2.0 -13.8 7.2 5.9 4.1 5.2 5.6 0.02Cyprus 12.1 20.7 -12.0 0.0 2.7 1.4 4.4 5.5 0.00Czech Republic 23.7 -2.5 -4.6 1.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.1 0.31Estonia 5.6 -9.6 11.3 13.3 7.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 0.02Hungary 10.0 -8.6 18.0 6.0 8.8 4.0 5.8 4.7 0.05Latvia 19.9 5.2 -19.4 11.3 4.9 5.7 4.6 4.8 0.00Lithuania -10.1 59.9 -1.7 14.8 8.9 5.9 6.6 4.8 0.02Malta -22.8 -2.8 1.2 3.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.00Poland 12.3 7.4 11.1 10.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 5.5 0.41Romania -4.5 26.8 18.4 -0.1 4.4 4.6 5.3 4.9 0.31Slovak Republic 32.4 56.0 9.0 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.3 2.6 0.12Slovenia -7.6 -24.2 -22.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 -0.1 0.05EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 7.9 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 1.32
Brazil 15.4 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.6 3.14Russia 6.9 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 6.4 9.21India 13.9 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.9 0.03China 19.0 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.1 5.66BRICs 11.1 8.1 -3.6 17.1 8.0 7.1 7.1 6.3 18.04
Turkey 14.1 -9.4 -2.8 -6.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 8.0 0.20Ukraine -1.0 -7.6 -7.8 26.6 10.3 7.9 7.3 6.1 0.33
Hong Kong -2.5 -1.1 7.7 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.8 0.26Indonesia 7.8 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 0.26Korea 7.7 44.1 16.3 7.9 9.9 6.8 5.0 4.1 0.87Malaysia -9.5 -9.3 -6.0 12.2 13.0 4.4 4.4 4.0 0.03Pakistan 11.6 8.7 4.7 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.6 3.3 0.15Philippines 12.8 31.3 -2.8 -5.8 -1.5 4.0 4.5 4.4 0.01Singapore 4.6 -1.8 -7.8 8.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 3.3 1.93Taiwan 0.9 9.4 -0.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.6 0.10Thailand -2.1 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.8 1.14Vietnam -53.7 12.4 7.0 0.9 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.2 0.00
Argentina 30.4 5.4 -3.0 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.5 1.07Chile 21.7 21.8 9.5 6.7 7.0 5.4 4.4 4.3 0.36Colombia 7.3 6.9 7.3 8.0 6.3 5.8 6.5 6.8 0.03Ecuador -2.4 0.6 3.7 8.1 4.9 2.1 4.7 5.7 0.00Mexico 11.4 12.0 2.1 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.1 0.34Uruguay -26.0 -29.8 -2.5 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 0.00Venezuela 2.0 18.3 -5.4 4.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 5.1 0.75
Bahrain -26.2 -27.7 120.1 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 0.00Egypt - - - - - - - - 0.00Iraq -9.2 2.5 2.0 5.8 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.00Israel 3.4 -0.6 -5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.3 0.89Kuwait -6.9 3.2 2.4 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 0.00Oman 0.9 5.0 2.9 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.7 3.4 0.01Qatar 17.5 0.4 6.2 7.6 6.5 5.2 5.3 5.0 0.12Saudi Arabia -5.0 -17.9 8.9 10.9 5.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 0.00South Africa 6.1 -0.8 2.4 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.6 5.9 0.51United Arab Emirates -24.0 -0.2 2.8 5.5 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.2 0.00EMERGING MARKETS 8.9 7.4 -2.1 12.9 7.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 28.74
WORLD 3.3 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 4.3 154.06
Aerospace(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
US$bn (2005 prices)2012
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 8
2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03Belgium 0.93 0.88 0.14 0.13 0.32 0.24Denmark 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02Finland 0.20 0.19 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04France 3.45 4.03 0.34 0.39 4.47 4.09Germany 1.65 2.21 0.36 0.47 6.55 6.87Greece 1.38 1.42 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.12Ireland 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Italy 1.45 1.83 0.24 0.31 2.44 2.42Luxembourg 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Netherlands 0.44 0.47 0.06 0.06 0.24 0.19Portugal 0.19 0.24 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03Spain 0.87 0.97 0.12 0.14 0.80 0.73Sweden 1.29 1.25 0.24 0.23 0.57 0.46UK 6.71 7.97 0.73 0.84 9.99 9.66EU15 2.10 2.56 0.32 0.39 25.70 24.93
Australia 1.11 1.10 0.10 0.10 0.53 0.44Canada 5.91 6.60 0.68 0.75 5.15 4.86Japan 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.80 0.67New Zealand 0.30 0.27 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02Norway 1.46 1.70 0.13 0.16 0.24 0.25Switzerland 0.28 0.27 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.12US 4.16 4.62 0.55 0.65 48.74 49.82
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 2.54 2.93 0.38 0.45 81.34 81.11
Bulgaria 0.49 0.42 0.07 0.07 0.014 0.011Cyprus 0.08 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.001 0.000Czech Republic 0.71 0.64 0.24 0.23 0.200 0.163Estonia 0.67 0.80 0.11 0.14 0.010 0.011Hungary 0.24 0.32 0.06 0.08 0.036 0.040Latvia 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000Lithuania 0.37 0.37 0.08 0.09 0.014 0.015Malta 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000Poland 0.50 0.60 0.04 0.05 0.269 0.295Romania 1.28 1.48 0.30 0.36 0.195 0.201Slovak Republic 0.58 0.62 0.17 0.18 0.081 0.076Slovenia 0.61 0.45 0.14 0.11 0.030 0.018EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 0.60 0.66 0.09 0.10 0.854 0.835
Brazil 2.13 2.37 0.33 0.36 2.04 2.03Russia 7.17 7.62 1.15 1.36 5.98 6.38India 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02China 0.37 0.36 0.13 0.12 3.67 3.94BRICs 0.90 0.89 0.24 0.24 11.71 12.36
Turkey 0.17 0.14 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.10Ukraine 1.99 2.04 0.37 0.47 0.21 0.24
Hong Kong 5.66 6.92 0.11 0.11 0.16 0.16Indonesia 0.25 0.23 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.16Korea 0.28 0.35 0.09 0.12 0.56 0.66Malaysia 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Pakistan 0.60 0.69 0.11 0.14 0.10 0.11Philippines 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Singapore 3.93 3.70 1.09 1.01 1.23 1.03Taiwan 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.06Thailand 1.45 1.29 0.51 0.48 0.73 0.65Vietnam 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Argentina 1.86 1.77 0.43 0.42 0.70 0.61Chile 1.71 2.00 0.24 0.27 0.23 0.24Colombia 0.12 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Ecuador 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Mexico 0.20 0.21 0.03 0.04 0.22 0.23Uruguay 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Venezuela 2.18 2.25 0.41 0.42 0.48 0.44
Bahrain 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Iraq 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Israel 3.96 3.74 0.57 0.54 0.57 0.49Kuwait 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Oman 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00Qatar 1.19 1.18 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08Saudi Arabia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00South Africa 1.09 1.16 0.19 0.20 0.33 0.32United Arab Emirates 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EMERGING MARKETS 0.78 0.78 0.18 0.18 18.66 18.89
Aerospace shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output
Aerospace
9
Key Macro Drivers Aerospace products are expensive, discrete items
with long delivery times, breaking any immediate link
between short-term economic developments and
sector production. The production series can also be
quite erratic, reflecting when/where the value added
associated with aircraft production is booked.
However, civilian aircraft purchases ultimately stem
from increasing demands to transport people and
freight by air, whilst military purchases are driven by
perceived threat levels, defence priorities and
government budget constraints.
There is also a growing push for emerging countries
to expand their own aerospace industries, in order to
break the Airbus/Boeing duopoly.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15% year
Aerospaceoutput (LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging markets: Aerospace output and investment
Forecast
Total fixed investment (RHS)
% year
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20% year
Aerospace output (LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Developed countries: Aerospace output and investment
Forecast
Total fixed investment
(RHS)
% year
Aerospace2%
Other manu- facturing sectors
98%
Aerospace - 2012Share of world manufacturing (2005 US$bn)
Source: Oxford Economics
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15% year Aerospace
output (LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Developed countries: Aerospace output and exports
ForecastTotal exports of goods and
services (RHS)
% year
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12% year
Aerospace output (LHS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging markets: Aerospace output and exports
Forecast
Total exports of goods and services
(RHS)
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 10
Latest Monthly Trends April saw a further decline in US aerospace production, of 0.9%
to stand 0.3% below its year-ago level. Clearly, the 787
Dreamliner grounding has been having a greater-than-expected
impact upon Boeing’s booked deliveries, which in turn is being
reflected in the value-added data. The lifting of the aircraft’s
global grounding at the end of April has allowed some
commercial flights to resume, once the approved adjustments
have been made to the plane’s electrical systems, but it will take
time for deliveries of new aircraft to get back on track.
In the meantime, Airbus received another large order in April, this
time worth US$4.1bn from China for 18 wide-body A330 aircraft.
This firms up part of an earlier agreement (for 45 A330s in total),
which had been delayed by the China/EU dispute over the EU’s
decision – now suspended – to include foreign carriers in its
emission trading scheme. European production data for March
were mixed, after a generally strong start to 2013. Germany and
Italy posted further gains while the UK aerospace sector
continued to rebound from January’s modest setback. Output in
France weakened after February’s surge.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Triad aerospace: Output growth
US
ForecastW. Europe
Triad
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Oxford Economics
2005=100
Aerospace: Output
US
Forecast
EU15
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics
2005=100
EU15 aerospace: Output
Germany
Forecast
France
Italy
UK
EU15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US$bn
Commercial
Defence
Aerospace: US unfilled orders
Source: Haver Analytics
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Balance, normalised
Source: Haver Analytics
France
Confidence Indicators
UK
3 month moving averages
Aerospace
11
-20
-10
0
10
20
May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13
Total
Domestic
US passenger traffic
International
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics
% year
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
North Atlantic
Europe
European passenger traffic
Far-East / Australia
Source: AEA
% year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bombardier
Embraer
Deliveries: Embraer and Bombardier
Source: Oxford Economics / Company reports
Deliveries
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Boeing
Airbus
Deliveries: Airbus and Boeing
Source: Oxford Economics / Company reports
Deliveries
Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % changeApr 125.3 7.5 160.0 8.4 124.5 6.3 123.4 -10.4 153.3 4.0May 126.2 7.5 161.1 7.8 122.5 6.0 122.4 4.7 158.2 11.3Jun 126.5 7.1 160.2 9.4 120.5 4.0 125.3 7.3 161.0 14.8Jul 127.5 6.8 163.6 11.9 124.1 3.9 113.6 -9.8 161.1 16.9Aug 128.5 6.8 163.6 7.4 130.7 21.1 128.5 5.7 160.9 18.5Sep 128.6 6.7 163.1 6.6 121.8 -3.3 121.0 7.4 160.5 16.2Oct 129.2 5.7 166.9 9.9 121.4 -4.4 120.3 2.7 163.6 17.6Nov 128.3 3.7 168.6 8.3 134.5 7.9 119.5 -1.2 164.8 9.7Dec 128.3 4.6 167.0 7.8 123.8 -6.0 134.5 12.5 168.8 8.3
2013Jan 126.7 3.3 172.9 12.6 122.2 -1.1 120.5 -0.3 156.7 9.1Feb 126.1 -0.1 171.0 10.1 130.8 9.8 124.6 4.1 158.8 10.5Mar 126.1 0.3 184.2 14.9 124.9 -6.2 128.3 3.7 161.9 6.6Apr 125.0 -0.3 - - - - - - - -
Industry Output - Industry Output - AerospaceValue Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted
USA Germany France Italy UK
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 12
Forecast in Detail – Europe, Middle East & Africa
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Sweden
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Netherlands
Belgium
Spain
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Russia
Turkey
Romania
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Slovak Republic
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Italy
UK Germany
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
ForecastFrance
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
EU15: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
Aerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
EU15: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
Aerospace
13
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
AUSTRIAAerospace 30.3 183.1 160.7 177.0 186.7 189.9 192.8% change y-o-y -10.4 -12.2 10.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 79.0 -31.7 16.5 3.3 1.0 1.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 107.0 92.3 97.4 102.3 104.1 105.9% change y-o-y -10.4 -13.7 5.6 5.0 1.8 1.7 -12.1 20.0 11.7 -3.9 -0.2 1.5
TOTAL 30 110.0 95.0 100.6 105.7 107.5 109.4% change y-o-y -10.4 -13.6 5.9 5.1 1.7 1.7 -2.9 9.1 11.9 -3.5 -0.1 1.5
BELGIUMAerospace 30.3 92.8 84.1 88.0 89.6 90.9 92.3% change y-o-y -16.9 -9.4 4.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 -4.3 10.6 8.1 -5.0 -0.1 1.5
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 37.3 32.9 35.1 36.5 37.2 37.8% change y-o-y -24.2 -11.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 1.8 15.6 -3.1 -9.8 -12.7 0.3 1.8
TOTAL 30 79.1 71.4 75.0 76.5 77.7 78.9% change y-o-y -17.8 -9.7 4.9 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.8 4.8 3.4 -6.1 -0.1 1.5
DENMARKAerospace 30.3 30.3 33.3 34.9 36.3 37.2 38.2% change y-o-y -14.4 9.6 5.0 3.8 2.6 2.7 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.7 2.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 30.3 32.6 33.9 35.1 36.2 37.4% change y-o-y -14.4 7.4 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.3 3.4
TOTAL 30 30.3 32.7 34.0 35.2 36.3 37.5% change y-o-y -14.4 7.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.3 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.4 3.3
FINLANDAerospace 30.3 67.5 67.4 67.8 69.1 70.4 71.9% change y-o-y 7.7 -0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 7.5 -6.2 27.5 -14.5 1.3 2.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 63.5 63.2 63.4 64.4 65.5 66.7% change y-o-y 6.7 -0.4 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 0.5 10.4 11.4 -15.3 1.0 1.8
TOTAL 30 63.9 63.6 63.8 64.8 65.9 67.2% change y-o-y 6.8 -0.4 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.2 9.1 12.5 -15.2 1.0 1.8
FRANCEAerospace 30.3 135.4 138.9 149.0 155.6 160.3 164.1% change y-o-y 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 3.2 -3.2 7.2 3.2 3.9 2.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 118.8 117.4 120.9 123.7 125.1 126.2% change y-o-y -1.6 -1.2 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.9 5.3 -1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.8
TOTAL 30 129.8 131.7 139.5 144.9 148.5 151.4% change y-o-y 2.8 1.4 6.0 3.9 2.5 2.0 3.9 -2.6 5.3 2.8 3.1 1.8
GERMANYAerospace 30.3 159.9 180.7 200.6 211.5 217.7 222.2% change y-o-y 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 -5.0 7.3 6.3 6.0 6.8 2.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 104.7 103.6 106.5 108.1 109.3 110.3% change y-o-y 1.9 -1.1 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 -8.4 0.1 2.5 -1.1 1.0 1.1
TOTAL 30 136.3 147.7 160.4 167.3 171.3 174.3% change y-o-y 6.1 8.3 8.6 4.3 2.4 1.7 -7.0 3.6 4.6 3.3 5.0 1.8
GREECEAerospace 30.3 45.8 41.7 44.6 45.7 46.9 48.4% change y-o-y -27.4 -9.0 7.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 -10.9 22.2 -13.0 1.1 5.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 16.1 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1% change y-o-y -14.1 -20.3 -5.3 2.3 2.6 3.0 -2.9 12.7 -1.4 -31.0 -4.0 5.1
TOTAL 30 28.5 24.9 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.9% change y-o-y -23.5 -12.7 3.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 -1.1 5.3 4.6 -22.0 -0.4 5.2
Average 5 year % growth
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transportNACE 30
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 14
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 13-17 18-22
IRELANDAerospace 30.3 105.4 88.7 96.7 100.2 104.2 109.1% change y-o-y -7.0 -15.9 9.1 3.6 3.9 4.7 -19.4 -3.2 -0.2 0.7 0.7 5.9
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 163.4 137.5 148.9 154.3 160.3 167.9% change y-o-y -1.0 -15.9 8.3 3.6 3.9 4.7 6.7 1.8 6.2 0.5 0.5 5.9
TOTAL 30 124.9 105.1 114.3 118.4 123.1 128.9% change y-o-y -4.5 -15.9 8.7 3.6 3.9 4.7 -15.0 -1.5 2.3 0.6 0.6 5.9
ITALYAerospace 30.3 133.0 140.1 150.3 162.8 171.1 174.7% change y-o-y 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 0.0 2.8 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 78.1 73.6 74.0 79.5 84.5 88.6% change y-o-y -1.2 -5.8 0.6 7.4 6.4 4.8 -4.3 1.6 -7.4 2.6 2.6 2.2
TOTAL 30 101.7 102.2 106.8 115.3 121.8 125.6% change y-o-y 2.0 0.4 4.5 7.9 5.6 3.2 -2.5 2.1 -3.4 4.3 4.3 1.9
LUXEMBOURGAerospace 30.3 81.8 79.9 85.1 88.0 91.0 93.9% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.3 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 - 16.4 -6.3 2.8 2.8 2.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 59.2 57.9 62.3 64.6 66.5 68.4% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.2 7.5 3.8 3.0 2.8 - 15.5 -9.9 2.9 2.9 2.3
TOTAL 30 69.7 68.2 72.9 75.5 78.0 80.3% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.2 6.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 - 15.9 -8.0 2.9 2.9 2.5
NETHERLANDSAerospace 30.3 154.1 156.7 160.7 163.5 164.8 166.5% change y-o-y 6.9 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 5.6 4.9 3.9 1.6 1.6 1.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 126.3 128.6 131.4 133.0 134.4 136.2% change y-o-y 3.3 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 3.6 2.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.6
TOTAL 30 131.0 133.3 136.4 138.2 139.5 141.3% change y-o-y 4.0 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 3.9 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
PORTUGALAerospace 30.3 77.9 82.5 87.8 91.3 95.1 98.1% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 6.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 5.8 0.3 -5.7 4.7 4.7 3.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 51.2 54.2 57.1 58.7 60.2 61.3% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 5.4 2.7 2.6 1.8 -7.2 -9.3 -8.5 3.7 3.7 2.0
TOTAL 30 58.5 61.9 65.5 67.6 69.7 71.3% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 5.8 3.2 3.1 2.3 -5.0 -6.8 -7.6 4.0 4.0 2.4
SPAINAerospace 30.3 105.0 109.4 114.8 118.2 122.8 127.9% change y-o-y -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 14.3 3.0 2.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 63.8 56.5 60.1 63.4 66.2 69.1% change y-o-y -15.3 -11.5 6.5 5.4 4.4 4.5 -3.9 -0.1 -10.0 1.6 1.6 4.3
TOTAL 30 77.7 74.3 78.5 81.8 85.2 88.9% change y-o-y -10.4 -4.4 5.7 4.2 4.1 4.3 -0.5 0.8 -5.6 2.7 2.7 4.2
SWEDENAerospace 30.3 102.1 100.6 102.9 104.4 106.0 107.9% change y-o-y -4.9 -1.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 5.4 2.6 -0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 65.1 59.1 60.5 61.9 62.6 63.4% change y-o-y -13.2 -9.1 2.3 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 -1.8 -7.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.6
TOTAL 30 86.5 83.2 85.0 86.5 87.7 89.1% change y-o-y -7.7 -3.8 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.6 3.6 0.7 -3.1 0.6 0.6 1.0
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Aerospace
15
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 13-17 18-22
UNITED KINGDOMAerospace 30.3 157.7 169.0 183.8 190.7 196.3 202.1% change y-o-y 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 -0.5 6.7 5.2 5.1 5.1 2.9
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 165.8 176.3 183.0 186.9 191.4 196.8% change y-o-y 5.5 6.4 3.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 -4.9 3.7 11.1 3.5 3.5 2.9
TOTAL 30 172.8 185.5 198.8 205.3 211.0 217.1% change y-o-y 7.7 7.3 7.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 0.9 4.8 9.4 4.7 4.7 2.9
EU15Aerospace 30.3 145.9 156.0 169.5 177.4 182.9 187.5% change y-o-y 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 1.0 6.1 3.8 5.1 5.1 2.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 101.3 100.8 103.9 106.9 109.5 112.1% change y-o-y -0.2 -0.5 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 -1.5 2.3 -1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1
TOTAL 30 125.3 130.5 139.1 144.8 148.9 152.6% change y-o-y 3.6 4.2 6.6 4.0 2.9 2.5 -0.3 4.4 1.7 4.0 4.0 2.3
BULGARIAAerospace 30.3 539.0 464.5 497.8 527.4 549.1 577.5% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 7.2 5.9 4.1 5.2 6.5 43.0 19.5 1.4 1.4 5.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 40.8 35.1 36.6 37.8 38.4 39.5% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 4.2 3.4 1.6 2.6 -12.2 1.3 -15.1 -0.7 -0.7 3.0
TOTAL 30 90.6 78.1 82.8 86.9 89.6 93.3% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 6.0 4.9 3.1 4.2 -11.7 5.2 -3.0 0.6 0.6 4.7
CYPRUSAerospace 30.3 243.3 214.1 214.0 219.7 222.8 232.7% change y-o-y 20.7 -12.0 0.0 2.6 1.4 4.4 - 15.8 13.9 -0.9 -0.9 5.5
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 19.6 17.2 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.7% change y-o-y -23.3 -12.0 -1.5 1.3 0.1 3.0 - 20.0 -28.7 -2.0 -2.0 4.3
TOTAL 30 27.0 23.7 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.8% change y-o-y -14.0 -12.0 -1.1 1.7 0.5 3.4 - 19.8 -24.1 -1.7 -1.7 4.7
CZECH REPUBLICAerospace 30.3 368.2 351.4 357.8 375.9 386.0 396.7% change y-o-y -2.5 -4.6 1.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 9.2 19.9 14.3 1.5 1.5 2.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 264.5 257.4 276.3 291.5 302.3 312.9% change y-o-y 1.9 -2.7 7.3 5.5 3.7 3.5 8.7 15.1 7.5 3.4 3.4 2.3
TOTAL 30 285.7 276.6 292.9 308.7 319.4 330.0% change y-o-y 0.7 -3.2 5.9 5.4 3.4 3.3 8.8 16.0 9.1 2.9 2.9 2.2
ESTONIAAerospace 30.3 106.1 118.0 133.7 143.7 151.3 159.2% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 13.3 7.5 5.3 5.2 29.1 9.7 -1.8 8.5 8.5 5.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 106.1 118.0 130.8 140.6 147.6 155.2% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 10.8 7.5 5.0 5.1 -8.2 36.2 -1.8 7.9 7.9 4.9
TOTAL 30 106.1 118.0 131.4 141.2 148.3 156.0% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 11.3 7.5 5.1 5.1 -0.2 27.7 -1.8 8.0 8.0 5.0
HUNGARYAerospace 30.3 138.8 163.8 173.7 188.9 196.5 207.9% change y-o-y -8.6 18.0 6.0 8.8 4.0 5.8 10.7 14.2 2.8 8.4 8.4 4.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 95.9 101.9 100.3 103.5 106.3 111.1% change y-o-y -4.7 6.3 -1.6 3.2 2.7 4.5 5.3 9.6 -3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0
TOTAL 30 105.4 115.7 116.6 122.5 126.4 132.6% change y-o-y -5.9 9.7 0.8 5.1 3.1 4.9 6.2 10.6 -2.1 4.7 4.7 3.6
NACE 30Average 5 year % growth
Value Added Index, 2005=100
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed output
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 16
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 13-17 18-22
LATVIAAerospace 30.3 211.5 170.4 189.7 198.9 210.3 220.0% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 11.3 4.9 5.7 4.6 - -19.4 25.4 0.8 0.8 4.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 111.1 89.5 100.6 106.4 111.4 116.1% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 12.4 5.8 4.7 4.2 - -5.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 4.0
TOTAL 30 111.3 89.7 100.7 106.6 111.6 116.3% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 12.4 5.8 4.7 4.2 - -5.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 4.0
LITHUANIAAerospace 30.3 94.6 93.0 106.8 116.3 123.2 131.3% change y-o-y 59.9 -1.7 14.8 8.9 5.9 6.6 - 11.5 -2.7 6.8 6.8 4.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 97.9 96.3 111.2 122.9 133.1 142.5% change y-o-y 36.5 -1.7 15.5 10.5 8.3 7.0 - 10.0 0.4 7.8 7.8 5.2
TOTAL 30 97.3 95.7 110.4 121.7 131.3 140.4% change y-o-y 40.2 -1.7 15.4 10.2 7.9 6.9 - 10.3 -0.2 7.6 7.6 5.1
MALTAAerospace 30.3 19.4 19.6 20.3 21.5 22.1 22.3% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 3.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 -9.1 -27.0 -20.5 2.8 2.8 0.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 61.5 62.2 65.3 69.4 72.4 74.3% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 5.0 6.2 4.4 2.6 30.5 -17.4 -7.2 3.8 3.8 2.3
TOTAL 30 58.6 59.3 62.2 66.1 69.0 70.7% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 4.9 6.2 4.3 2.6 21.5 -18.0 -7.7 3.8 3.8 2.2
POLANDAerospace 30.3 214.4 238.2 263.3 280.5 295.7 311.1% change y-o-y 7.4 11.1 10.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 1.5 10.7 12.1 7.7 7.7 5.5
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 150.3 155.3 170.6 177.9 185.2 192.2% change y-o-y 11.9 3.3 9.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 0.8 6.2 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.1
TOTAL 30 163.1 171.8 189.0 198.4 207.2 215.9% change y-o-y 10.7 5.3 10.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 0.9 7.0 6.9 5.8 5.8 4.5
ROMANIAAerospace 30.3 127.3 150.7 150.6 157.2 164.3 173.0% change y-o-y 26.8 18.4 -0.1 4.4 4.6 5.3 3.9 50.2 -3.1 6.3 6.3 4.9
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 28.1 41.5 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.4% change y-o-y 2.2 47.8 1.0 5.0 4.5 5.2 -1.3 -3.1 -21.9 11.5 11.5 4.8
TOTAL 30 74.3 92.4 92.5 96.7 101.1 106.4% change y-o-y 20.9 24.4 0.2 4.5 4.5 5.3 -0.7 11.7 -9.3 7.5 7.5 4.9
SLOVAK REPUBLICAerospace 30.3 576.1 627.9 648.8 672.7 701.0 724.0% change y-o-y 56.0 9.0 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.3 - 9.6 40.7 4.7 4.7 2.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 244.7 266.0 276.2 285.3 294.9 302.2% change y-o-y 47.5 8.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.5 - 22.0 6.1 4.3 4.3 2.9
TOTAL 30 303.5 330.2 342.3 354.0 366.9 377.0% change y-o-y 50.3 8.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 2.7 - 20.2 12.5 4.4 4.4 2.8
SLOVENIAAerospace 30.3 47.9 37.3 37.4 37.7 37.7 38.1% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 79.6 24.6 -15.0 -4.5 -4.5 -0.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 47.9 37.3 37.5 38.2 39.5 41.1% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 4.1 61.6 24.6 -15.0 -3.0 -3.0 3.1
TOTAL 30 47.9 37.3 37.5 38.1 39.1 40.5% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.6 64.2 24.6 -15.0 -3.3 -3.3 2.6
NACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed output
Average 5 year % growth
Aerospace
17
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 13-17 18-22
EASTERN EUROPE (EU12)Aerospace 30.3 174.6 187.5 196.6 207.3 216.3 226.1% change y-o-y 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 6.8 22.4 6.1 5.3 5.3 4.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 129.7 131.0 140.7 147.4 153.3 159.2% change y-o-y 6.2 1.0 7.4 4.8 4.0 3.9 5.2 9.3 0.7 4.2 4.2 3.5
TOTAL 30 140.9 145.1 154.7 162.4 169.0 175.9% change y-o-y 7.3 3.0 6.6 5.0 4.1 4.1 5.5 11.9 2.2 4.5 4.5 3.7
NORWAYAerospace 30.3 157.3 167.8 178.7 188.4 199.4 211.1% change y-o-y 11.5 6.7 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 0.9 5.7 4.9 6.1 6.1 5.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 160.0 176.9 184.5 189.2 192.9 196.6% change y-o-y 13.0 10.6 4.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 5.8 4.8 4.2 4.2 1.7
TOTAL 30 159.8 176.1 184.0 189.1 193.5 197.9% change y-o-y 12.8 10.2 4.5 2.8 2.3 2.3 0.9 5.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 2.1
RUSSIAAerospace 30.3 143.8 123.9 160.7 175.5 188.9 203.3% change y-o-y 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 7.6 3.1 6.5 7.2 7.2 6.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 246.4 305.6 319.0 335.3 349.6 364.6% change y-o-y 60.0 24.0 4.4 5.1 4.3 4.3 -10.0 6.1 15.7 8.2 8.2 4.7
TOTAL 30 160.6 153.6 186.7 201.7 215.2 229.8% change y-o-y 13.2 -4.3 21.5 8.1 6.7 6.8 3.2 3.6 8.4 7.4 7.4 6.0
SWITZERLANDAerospace 30.3 121.5 120.8 123.5 125.0 126.4 127.7% change y-o-y 7.4 -0.6 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 5.3 2.9 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 113.7 110.2 107.5 107.2 107.7 108.1% change y-o-y 6.3 -3.1 -2.5 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 0.6
TOTAL 30 118.9 117.2 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.1% change y-o-y 7.0 -1.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.4 -0.8 0.4 0.4 1.0
TURKEYAerospace 30.3 234.6 228.1 213.3 223.1 234.6 247.2% change y-o-y -9.4 -2.8 -6.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 - 25.1 -3.0 1.0 1.0 8.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 50.8 38.0 47.6 46.2 44.7 43.9% change y-o-y -27.2 -25.1 25.2 -2.9 -3.3 -1.8 - -1.7 -22.0 -2.9 -2.9 6.5
TOTAL 30 109.9 99.1 100.9 103.1 105.7 109.2% change y-o-y -15.9 -9.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.3 - 5.4 -11.9 -0.1 -0.1 7.6
UKRAINEAerospace 30.3 99.5 91.7 116.1 128.0 138.1 148.2% change y-o-y -7.6 -7.8 26.6 10.3 7.9 7.3 5.1 12.7 -5.0 8.3 8.3 6.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 5.7 5.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.4% change y-o-y -38.5 -7.8 27.4 7.5 8.3 7.6 16.3 81.8 -36.6 8.0 8.0 5.8
TOTAL 30 62.5 57.7 73.0 80.4 86.8 93.1% change y-o-y -9.2 -7.8 26.6 10.2 7.9 7.3 5.3 17.8 -8.9 8.3 8.3 6.1
EUROPEAerospace 30.3 148.1 152.6 170.5 179.9 187.1 193.8% change y-o-y 5.5 3.1 11.7 5.5 4.0 3.6 2.2 5.9 4.2 5.5 5.5 3.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 112.8 116.2 120.6 124.5 127.8 131.2% change y-o-y 5.3 3.1 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.7 -1.2 3.3 0.4 3.1 3.1 2.5
TOTAL 30 131.7 135.7 147.4 154.2 159.6 164.8% change y-o-y 5.4 3.1 8.6 4.6 3.5 3.2 0.5 4.7 2.6 4.6 4.6 3.0
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 18
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
BAHRAINAerospace 30.3 13.6 29.9 31.1 32.4 33.4 34.5% change y-o-y -27.7 120.1 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.3 - - -20.3 -26.7 20.5 3.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 182.3 191.6 198.5 204.9 209.3 214.1% change y-o-y 4.9 5.1 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.3 - - 19.4 6.7 3.3 2.4
TOTAL 30 179.7 189.2 196.0 202.3 206.7 211.4% change y-o-y 4.8 5.2 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.3 - - 18.3 6.5 3.3 2.4
IRAQAerospace 30.3 68.9 70.3 74.3 77.5 79.3 80.3% change y-o-y 2.5 2.0 5.8 4.2 2.4 1.3 - -37.6 -8.7 -7.7 3.1 0.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 51.1 53.2 56.8 60.2 63.5 66.8% change y-o-y 4.3 4.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.2 - 3.5 -16.6 -10.6 5.5 3.4
TOTAL 30 52.2 54.3 57.9 61.3 64.5 67.7% change y-o-y 4.2 4.0 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.9 - -5.2 -16.1 -10.3 5.3 3.2
ISRAELAerospace 30.3 122.9 116.1 122.4 128.9 135.5 141.6% change y-o-y -0.6 -5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 - 8.4 7.0 1.1 2.9 4.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 74.7 76.4 77.8 78.6 79.2 79.4% change y-o-y -7.5 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 - 3.7 -1.1 -5.6 1.2 0.2
TOTAL 30 105.7 102.0 106.5 111.0 115.5 119.5% change y-o-y -2.4 -3.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.5 - 6.3 3.9 -0.9 2.5 3.4
KUWAITAerospace 30.3 68.6 70.2 73.5 76.0 77.9 80.0% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -10.0 3.1 2.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 71.0 72.7 76.0 78.7 80.6 82.8% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.6 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -9.2 3.1 2.8
TOTAL 30 70.9 72.6 75.9 78.6 80.5 82.6% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.6 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -9.3 3.1 2.8
OMANAerospace 30.3 74.0 76.1 81.1 86.0 90.4 94.6% change y-o-y 5.0 2.9 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.7 - - -21.1 -0.5 5.0 3.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 303.0 312.7 332.9 353.8 373.7 393.2% change y-o-y 5.0 3.2 6.4 6.3 5.6 5.2 - - -13.0 18.8 5.3 4.2
TOTAL 30 135.9 140.1 149.1 158.4 166.9 175.3% change y-o-y 5.0 3.1 6.5 6.2 5.4 5.0 - - -18.6 8.6 5.2 3.9
QATARAerospace 30.3 256.3 272.2 292.8 311.8 327.8 345.2% change y-o-y 0.4 6.2 7.6 6.5 5.2 5.3 16.0 28.0 14.7 14.1 6.1 5.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 151.1 160.5 170.7 180.7 189.8 199.8% change y-o-y -8.6 6.2 6.4 5.9 5.0 5.3 78.1 -10.3 12.9 4.1 5.8 4.7
TOTAL 30 245.1 260.3 279.8 297.8 313.2 329.7% change y-o-y -0.2 6.2 7.5 6.4 5.2 5.3 27.1 17.6 14.5 13.3 6.1 5.0
SAUDI ARABIAAerospace 30.3 56.9 62.0 68.7 72.2 75.2 78.6% change y-o-y -17.9 8.9 10.9 5.1 4.2 4.5 -0.8 1.2 -40.4 -8.9 6.7 3.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 190.0 196.8 205.4 214.7 223.0 232.2% change y-o-y -6.3 3.6 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.1 29.3 7.4 35.6 4.3 4.1 3.2
TOTAL 30 151.1 157.4 165.5 173.1 179.9 187.3% change y-o-y -7.8 4.2 5.1 4.6 3.9 4.1 -0.1 1.5 -18.5 2.2 4.4 3.2
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growthNACE 30
Aerospace
19
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
UAEAerospace 30.3 21.4 22.0 23.2 24.5 25.4 26.4% change y-o-y -0.2 2.8 5.5 5.3 3.9 3.8 - -14.4 -33.4 -20.0 4.2 3.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 35.3 36.4 38.6 40.8 42.8 44.8% change y-o-y -0.3 3.2 5.9 5.9 4.9 4.6 - 6.1 -7.3 -14.2 4.9 4.0
TOTAL 30 33.7 34.8 36.8 39.0 40.8 42.7% change y-o-y -0.2 3.2 5.9 5.8 4.8 4.5 - -4.7 -13.6 -14.7 4.8 3.9
EGYPTAerospace 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% change y-o-y 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3% change y-o-y -49.0 -1.8 3.9 7.1 5.8 5.7 - - 47.9 -40.3 4.1 5.2
TOTAL 30 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3% change y-o-y -49.0 -1.8 3.9 7.1 5.8 5.7 - - 47.9 -40.3 4.1 5.2
SOUTH AFRICAAerospace 30.3 146.0 149.5 157.6 165.3 176.6 188.2% change y-o-y -0.8 2.4 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.6 27.5 -2.9 10.9 3.9 5.2 5.9
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 70.4 72.1 75.4 78.2 81.5 85.8% change y-o-y -10.6 2.4 4.5 3.8 4.2 5.3 -2.8 -1.5 -16.2 -6.4 4.0 4.2
TOTAL 30 123.7 126.7 133.4 139.6 148.5 158.0% change y-o-y -2.6 2.4 5.3 4.7 6.4 6.4 5.1 -2.1 -1.2 1.6 5.0 5.6
EUROPE, ME & AFRICAAerospace 30.3 147.6 152.0 169.5 178.8 186.0 192.8% change y-o-y 5.3 2.9 11.5 5.5 4.1 3.6 5.5 2.2 5.9 4.2 5.5 3.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 111.8 115.2 119.5 123.3 126.6 130.0% change y-o-y 5.1 3.0 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.2 -1.2 3.1 0.2 3.1 2.5
TOTAL 30 131.1 135.0 146.4 153.2 158.6 163.8% change y-o-y 5.2 3.0 8.5 4.6 3.5 3.3 4.8 0.5 4.6 2.5 4.6 3.1
Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 20
Forecast in Detail - Americas
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Americas: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Americas: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
Aerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
US: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
Aerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Uruguay
Venezuela
Ecuador
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Colombia
Argentina
Chile
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Aerospace
21
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
UNITED STATESAerospace 30.3 130.3 134.1 151.6 160.7 167.9 176.4% change y-o-y 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 -1.1 0.5 6.9 0.5 6.3 4.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 130.9 141.3 148.7 152.9 157.2 162.6% change y-o-y 14.9 8.0 5.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 2.5 5.6 7.9 0.9 4.4 3.0
TOTAL 30 130.4 135.9 150.9 158.8 165.3 173.1% change y-o-y 9.8 4.2 11.0 5.2 4.1 4.7 -0.5 1.6 7.1 0.6 5.8 4.3
CANADAAerospace 30.3 107.4 107.8 114.1 121.5 128.6 134.5% change y-o-y 2.9 0.4 5.8 6.5 5.8 4.6 5.6 1.7 4.6 -1.1 4.6 4.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 96.0 83.0 87.2 91.1 94.4 97.3% change y-o-y -8.2 -13.5 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.5 -5.1 -1.3 0.9 0.3 3.2
TOTAL 30 105.2 103.0 108.9 115.7 122.0 127.3% change y-o-y 0.8 -2.0 5.7 6.2 5.5 4.4 5.0 0.1 3.5 -0.8 3.9 4.5
ARGENTINAAerospace 30.3 517.9 502.3 524.0 551.9 579.6 605.5% change y-o-y 5.4 -3.0 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 - 6.3 62.3 24.3 3.2 3.5
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 104.8 104.2 110.8 115.6 120.3 124.4% change y-o-y -4.3 -0.5 6.3 4.4 4.0 3.4 - -21.4 13.0 -0.2 3.5 2.5
TOTAL 30 227.5 222.4 233.5 245.2 256.7 267.3% change y-o-y 2.0 -2.2 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.1 - -20.1 22.9 12.5 3.3 3.2
BRAZILAerospace 30.3 236.2 248.4 265.0 282.0 296.9 310.9% change y-o-y 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 - 23.4 8.6 16.7 5.6 4.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 129.2 135.8 140.4 145.4 150.9 156.8% change y-o-y -10.9 5.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 - 18.5 8.9 1.0 3.9 3.4
TOTAL 30 190.5 200.3 211.7 223.6 234.5 245.0% change y-o-y 7.6 5.2 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.5 - 21.0 8.7 10.6 5.2 4.2
CHILEAerospace 30.3 348.3 381.3 406.9 435.4 459.0 479.4% change y-o-y 21.8 9.5 6.7 7.0 5.4 4.4 - 24.4 10.7 23.2 6.6 4.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 190.7 208.7 221.7 235.6 246.6 257.3% change y-o-y -7.7 9.5 6.2 6.3 4.7 4.3 - 19.5 11.0 6.7 6.2 4.6
TOTAL 30 295.5 323.4 344.8 368.4 387.8 404.9% change y-o-y 13.9 9.5 6.6 6.8 5.3 4.4 - 22.5 10.8 18.2 6.5 4.4
COLOMBIAAerospace 30.3 210.3 225.6 243.7 259.0 273.9 291.7% change y-o-y 6.9 7.3 8.0 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - 23.4 8.0 6.8 6.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 247.4 265.3 286.7 304.7 322.3 343.2% change y-o-y 10.1 7.3 8.1 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - -3.9 24.4 6.8 6.8
TOTAL 30 241.5 259.0 279.9 297.4 314.6 335.0% change y-o-y 9.7 7.3 8.1 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - -0.1 21.1 6.8 6.8
ECUADORAerospace 30.3 83.6 86.7 93.7 98.3 100.4 105.2% change y-o-y 0.6 3.7 8.1 4.9 2.1 4.7 - - -8.0 -0.6 4.7 5.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 416.9 443.6 488.7 520.9 547.1 579.1% change y-o-y 0.6 6.4 10.2 6.6 5.0 5.9 - - 4.6 23.7 6.8 5.8
TOTAL 30 415.2 441.8 486.7 518.8 544.8 576.7% change y-o-y 0.6 6.4 10.2 6.6 5.0 5.9 - - 4.6 23.7 6.8 5.8
Average 5 year % growth
Americas: Other means of transportNACE 30
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 22
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
MEXICOAerospace 30.3 190.0 194.0 211.1 227.7 244.3 261.2% change y-o-y 12.0 2.1 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.9 -13.3 11.2 -8.1 13.6 6.6 6.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 190.0 197.6 217.8 234.0 247.7 262.9% change y-o-y 12.0 4.0 10.2 7.5 5.8 6.1 -1.1 1.2 3.1 13.6 6.7 6.6
TOTAL 30 190.0 197.0 216.6 233.0 247.1 262.6% change y-o-y 12.0 3.6 10.0 7.5 6.1 6.3 -4.2 3.4 0.5 13.6 6.7 6.5
URUGUAYAerospace 30.3 11.9 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.8% change y-o-y -29.8 -2.5 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 -33.4 85.5 -14.6 -27.7 1.5 3.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 112.8 109.9 113.8 118.2 122.5 127.2% change y-o-y -3.0 -2.5 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.9 -25.0 15.1 9.4 0.2 2.4 3.3
TOTAL 30 77.8 75.8 78.4 81.4 84.3 87.6% change y-o-y -5.0 -2.5 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.8 -25.9 29.7 0.3 -3.7 2.4 3.3
VENEZUELAAerospace 30.3 137.1 129.7 135.3 144.5 155.0 165.3% change y-o-y 18.3 -5.4 4.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 - - 9.0 2.8 3.8 5.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 100.0 87.0 90.9 96.5 103.0 109.6% change y-o-y -15.3 -13.0 4.5 6.2 6.7 6.4 - - 1.8 -3.6 1.8 4.8
TOTAL 30 118.2 107.9 112.7 120.1 128.5 136.9% change y-o-y 1.0 -8.7 4.4 6.6 7.0 6.5 - - 4.9 -0.3 3.0 5.0
AMERICASAerospace 30.3 155.3 159.5 178.6 189.4 198.2 208.3% change y-o-y 8.1 2.7 11.9 6.0 4.7 5.1 -0.4 0.9 6.7 1.0 6.0 4.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 150.7 159.6 168.2 173.7 179.3 185.8% change y-o-y 10.6 5.9 5.4 3.3 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.7 7.0 1.4 4.3 3.3
TOTAL 30 154.1 159.5 175.9 185.3 193.3 202.4% change y-o-y 8.7 3.5 10.2 5.4 4.3 4.7 0.5 1.6 6.8 1.1 5.6 4.3
Average 5 year % growth
Americas: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Aerospace
23
Forecast in Detail – Asia Pacific
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Asia Pacific: Other means of transport output growth
ForecastAerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Asia Pacific: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Source: Oxford Economics
Japan: Other means of transport output growth
Forecast
Aerospace
Ships, rolling stock etc
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
India
China
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
ForecastKorea
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Vietnam
Singapore
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Hong Kong
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% year
Thailand
Malaysia
Source: Oxford Economics
Aerospace: Output
Forecast
Indonesia
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 24
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
AUSTRALIAAerospace 30.3 90.6 90.4 92.6 95.1 97.7 100.1% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 - 6.0 0.9 -0.8 2.0 1.7
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 91.5 90.9 91.8 92.6 93.8 94.8% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 - -0.8 3.6 -0.8 0.7 1.2
TOTAL 30 91.1 90.7 92.1 93.6 95.4 97.0% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 - 1.9 2.5 -0.8 1.3 1.4
JAPANAerospace 30.3 89.9 83.5 88.7 92.5 95.5 98.6% change y-o-y -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 -2.0 4.1 5.4 -4.4 1.9 1.5
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 75.5 68.4 71.4 73.7 75.6 77.8% change y-o-y -23.0 -9.3 4.4 3.2 2.6 2.9 -2.4 0.5 3.1 -4.4 0.6 1.2
TOTAL 30 76.9 69.9 73.1 75.5 77.6 79.8% change y-o-y -23.0 -9.0 4.6 3.3 2.7 2.9 -2.3 0.9 3.3 -4.4 0.8 1.2
NEW ZEALANDAerospace 30.3 76.6 74.7 75.3 76.4 78.0 79.8% change y-o-y -5.9 -2.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.3 -5.6 -4.1 -2.5 -4.7 0.8 2.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 84.4 82.3 82.8 84.4 86.5 88.7% change y-o-y -0.2 -2.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 11.9 6.3 1.4 -3.1 1.0 2.1
TOTAL 30 84.1 82.0 82.4 84.1 86.1 88.3% change y-o-y -0.4 -2.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 9.4 5.5 1.2 -3.1 1.0 2.2
CHINAAerospace 30.3 498.5 539.4 574.0 613.5 658.6 707.5% change y-o-y 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 -18.4 28.9 33.2 15.1 7.3 7.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 273.1 298.2 318.1 337.9 359.4 382.3% change y-o-y 9.6 9.2 6.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 22.3 5.7 12.9 14.5 7.0 6.4
TOTAL 30 284.3 310.2 330.8 351.7 374.3 398.5% change y-o-y 9.8 9.1 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 20.0 6.2 14.0 14.6 7.0 6.4
HONG KONGAerospace 30.3 86.8 93.5 97.5 101.2 104.9 109.1% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 5.1 5.4 -0.2 -2.7 4.7 4.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 86.6 93.2 97.0 100.6 104.3 108.4% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.1 3.7 3.7 4.0 5.1 8.2 0.3 -2.7 4.6 4.8
TOTAL 30 86.7 93.4 97.3 101.0 104.7 108.8% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.2 3.7 3.7 4.0 5.1 6.4 0.0 -2.7 4.7 4.8
INDIAAerospace 30.3 130.7 136.8 153.0 169.5 184.8 198.4% change y-o-y 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 10.7 28.7 -19.6 14.4 8.7 5.9
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 206.8 215.5 238.3 264.1 290.6 313.2% change y-o-y 0.2 4.2 10.6 10.8 10.0 7.8 10.7 18.9 16.3 13.6 8.7 5.2
TOTAL 30 206.2 214.8 237.6 263.4 289.8 312.3% change y-o-y 0.2 4.2 10.6 10.8 10.0 7.8 10.0 15.5 15.6 13.6 8.7 5.2
INDONESIAAerospace 30.3 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.4 113.9 118.8% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.3 - 63.1 -16.4 11.8 4.5 4.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.2 113.6 118.5% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 12.1 -13.7 -7.8 11.8 4.4 4.3
TOTAL 30 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.2 113.7 118.5% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 12.2 -11.0 -8.9 11.8 4.4 4.3
Average 5 year % growthNACE 30
Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100
Asia Pacific: Other means of transport
Aerospace
25
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
KOREAAerospace 30.3 275.6 320.5 345.8 380.1 406.1 426.2% change y-o-y 44.1 16.3 7.9 9.9 6.8 5.0 15.7 9.8 3.8 15.7 9.1 4.1
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 156.2 164.1 176.2 190.5 201.5 210.2% change y-o-y 4.3 5.0 7.4 8.1 5.8 4.3 10.4 4.7 4.3 5.7 6.1 3.5
TOTAL 30 162.7 172.6 185.5 200.8 212.6 221.9% change y-o-y 7.0 6.1 7.5 8.3 5.9 4.4 10.6 5.0 4.2 6.4 6.4 3.6
MALAYSIAAerospace 30.3 37.8 35.6 39.9 45.1 47.1 49.1% change y-o-y -9.3 -6.0 12.2 13.0 4.4 4.4 12.1 -20.1 -5.4 -9.6 5.4 4.0
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 203.6 191.3 193.1 199.2 205.7 212.5% change y-o-y -3.1 -6.0 0.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 -10.6 16.7 -3.2 0.9 2.8
TOTAL 30 107.8 101.3 104.6 110.1 114.0 118.1% change y-o-y -4.4 -6.0 3.2 5.3 3.5 3.6 8.4 -16.2 7.8 -4.7 1.8 3.1
PAKISTANAerospace 30.3 232.5 243.5 272.1 300.2 325.1 343.3% change y-o-y 8.7 4.7 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.6 - - 37.6 9.6 8.1 3.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 170.0 178.0 195.8 213.9 230.1 243.7% change y-o-y 4.1 4.7 10.0 9.2 7.6 5.9 - - 149.3 5.2 7.5 3.7
TOTAL 30 177.7 186.1 205.2 224.5 241.8 256.0% change y-o-y 4.8 4.7 10.3 9.4 7.7 5.9 - - 94.0 5.9 7.6 3.7
PHILIPPINESAerospace 30.3 236.5 229.8 216.4 213.1 221.6 231.6% change y-o-y 31.3 -2.8 -5.8 -1.5 4.0 4.5 - - 22.4 14.4 -0.4 4.4
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 30.7 33.4 34.9 37.1 38.4 39.9% change y-o-y -1.9 8.7 4.5 6.3 3.5 4.0 - - -11.8 -14.5 5.4 3.8
TOTAL 30 41.2 43.4 44.1 46.1 47.7 49.7% change y-o-y 5.9 5.3 1.7 4.3 3.6 4.1 - - -10.5 -10.1 3.8 4.0
SINGAPOREAerospace 30.3 136.5 125.9 136.0 142.2 147.2 151.0% change y-o-y -1.8 -7.8 8.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 8.8 11.0 5.3 3.5 2.0 3.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 82.9 76.5 83.9 86.4 88.7 89.9% change y-o-y -8.6 -7.8 9.8 3.0 2.6 1.4 -0.9 6.1 -2.7 -3.5 1.6 1.6
TOTAL 30 117.4 108.3 117.5 122.4 126.4 129.3% change y-o-y -3.6 -7.8 8.5 4.2 3.3 2.3 3.6 8.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 2.9
TAIWANAerospace 30.3 115.6 115.2 119.1 124.3 129.3 133.5% change y-o-y 9.4 -0.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.3 36.0 9.2 26.3 1.0 2.9 2.6
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 115.6 116.0 119.8 124.9 129.9 134.9% change y-o-y 9.4 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 -0.2 -1.4 9.9 1.0 3.1 3.3
TOTAL 30 115.6 116.0 119.8 124.9 129.9 134.8% change y-o-y 9.4 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 0.0 -1.2 10.4 1.0 3.1 3.2
THAILANDAerospace 30.3 102.4 103.4 106.2 111.3 116.3 122.0% change y-o-y 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 - -30.6 93.7 -0.8 3.6 4.8
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 102.4 103.1 105.5 109.9 115.1 120.9% change y-o-y 3.5 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 - -34.5 24.4 -0.8 3.4 5.0
TOTAL 30 102.4 103.4 106.1 111.2 116.2 121.9% change y-o-y 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 - -31.9 83.0 -0.8 3.6 4.8
VIETNAMAerospace 30.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 0.9 5.6 6.0 5.7 - - -37.6 -46.6 5.0 5.2
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 155.3 166.1 173.7 186.5 198.1 208.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 4.6 7.4 6.2 5.4 - - 19.9 -0.3 6.1 4.9
TOTAL 30 155.2 166.0 173.6 186.4 198.0 208.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 4.6 7.4 6.2 5.4 - - 19.9 -0.3 6.1 4.9
Asia Pacific: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
Aerospace
Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 26
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
ASIA PACIFICAerospace 30.3 174.8 180.5 191.5 203.1 214.8 226.6
% change y-o-y 5.2 3.3 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.5 2.9 7.4 12.0 6.4 5.3 5.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 176.6 186.8 199.0 211.4 224.1 236.9% change y-o-y 3.5 5.8 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 7.7 2.2 8.2 9.0 6.1 5.4
TOTAL 30 176.4 186.1 198.1 210.4 223.0 235.7% change y-o-y 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 7.2 2.7 8.7 8.6 6.0 5.4
NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22
WORLDAerospace 30.3 154.0 158.3 176.3 186.6 195.1 204.0
% change y-o-y 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 1.4 1.6 6.8 2.4 5.8 4.3
Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 152.3 160.2 169.4 177.9 186.4 195.2% change y-o-y 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.6 1.4 6.4 5.1 5.1 4.5
TOTAL 30 153.1 159.3 172.8 182.2 190.7 199.5% change y-o-y 6.0 4.0 8.5 5.4 4.7 4.7 3.3 1.5 6.6 3.7 5.4 4.4
Average 5 year % growth
Asia Pacific: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100
Average 5 year % growth
World Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100