AERIUS®

Science at the core of policy and practice

Mark Wilmot MSc. Teamleader AERIUS !December 3rd, 2013 !Ministry of Economic Affairs !m.j.wilmot@minez.nl www.aerius.nl/en

Ministry of Economic Affairs Directorate-General for Nature and Regional Policy, Natura 2000

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Outline

‣Introduction Integrated Approach to Nitrogen

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‣AERIUS, assessment of Nitrogen deposition impact

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Integration…

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Adva

ntag

es

Level of Integration

Optimum level of Integration

Insufficient integration ’Over integration’

Adva

ntag

esLevel of Integration

InnovationOptimum level of Integration

New optimumlevel of Integration

Insufficient integration ’Over integration’

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Integrated Approach to Nitrogen

‣Ecological argumentation, that against a background of sufficient steadily reducing nitrogen deposition, recovery is possible and further deterioration will be prevented

‣Analysis of actual deposition and trends (2004-2030) per sector (AERIUS)

‣(Principles) of allocation of “emission” and validation of the agreements

‣Monitoring and hands-on control.

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013!5

Integrated Nitrogen Approach

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

‣Toolkit defining the courses of action managing different nitrogen levels

‣Internationally reviewed

‣ Validated management approach, defines the risks and options for restoring and maintaining habitat integrity under different nitrogen regimes

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Ecological conservation/restoration

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

‣Measure per Habitat, 3 types

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‣Proven

‣Rule of thumb

‣Hypothetical

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‣Based on scientific knowledge

‣Internationally peer-reviewed

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Ecological conservation/restoration

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013!8

Trend Analysis N-deposition

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Evaluate different measures

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Example, local measure, reallocation farms 1/2

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Example, local measure, reallocation farms 2/2

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

‣Generic measures (global, European and national); NEC directive, Euro 6/VI, etc

‣Additional National package of measures for the agricultural sector

‣Measures at a provincial/regional level

‣ Local measures

Analysis Scenario’s for Emission Reduction

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Room for Economical Development

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Reserved for threshold

Important projects

Autonomous growth

Unallocated

No permit required

Permit required

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Results so far

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‣Financial resources to carry out the necessary measures (75 million euro a year)

‣Almost all N2000 areas have scientifically based recovery plans based on the downward slope and the recovery measures

‣Allocation for economical expansion is possible

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‣A positive-critical advice of our Highest Judicial Council on the concept-Programme

‣Political support as well as support from the NGO’s for the programme

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Still work to be done...

‣Adjustment of legislation

‣Organize support for carrying out the measures (especially hydrology)

‣AERIUS

‣Implement the system of monitoring and licensing

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013!16

AERIUS solving the N-deposition puzzle

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

AERIUS Concept

‣Uniform instrument for modeling of nitrogen deposition for legislation

‣Implementing „State of the Art” modeling of Nitrogen Deposition

‣Structuring and enhancing quality of source data

‣Implementing a central public data service

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

AERIUS deliverables

‣IT-support of Integrated Approach to Nitrogen (summer 2014)

‣Statutory to substantiate permit request regarding Nitrogen deposition

‣Manage Development Room and issued permits

‣Assist Integrated Approach in Monitoring task

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

From dependencies…

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User InterfacesEnd user

DatabasesSource data owner

AtmosphericDeposition

Model

Scientists

? Administrative Process

Politics

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

… to relations

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User InterfacesEnd user

DatabasesSource data owner

Administrative Process

Politics

AtmosphericDeposition

Model

Scientists

AERIUS

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

AERIUS user group

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‣The end user of AERIUS controls the functionality

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‣Define

‣Prioritise

‣Verify

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‣Agile-Scrum software development

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Different purpose, different AERIUS product

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Maps, data and more…

‣All relevant N2000 / Habitat information

‣Emission sources

‣Default emission values

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‣Exchange of information via IMAER

‣INSPIRE compliant

‣GML (Geography Markup Language, ISO 19136)

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DatabasesSource data owner

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

„State of the Art” modeling

‣Operational Priority Substances Model (OPS)

‣long-term climatological trajectory model

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‣DEPosition of Acidifying Compounds (DEPAC)

‣Compensation point model

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AtmosphericDeposition

Model

Scientists

Jaarsveld et al. (2012) Zanten et al. (2010) Wichink Kruit et al. (2007)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Flux models

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Adding a compensation point model makes emission possibleRa and Rb are commonly used

Ra atmosphere !!Rb vegetation !!!!Rc soil

Ra

Rb

Rc

Xa

a

Fx

Ra

Rb

Rw

Xa

c

Fx

Xs

Rs

Xc

Zanten et al. (2010)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Surface Roughness length 25m2 -> 25om2

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Standard method pre-fixed square grid

AERIUS method dynamic circular grid

Steur (2012)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Impact on measurement locations

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

More than -1.5 -1 tot 1.5 -0.5 tot -1 -0.5 tot 0.5 0.5 tot 1 1 tot 1.5 More than 1.5

Cum

ulat

ive fr

eque

ncy

Difference AERIUS compared to standard-method (kgN/ha/yr)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Impact on measurement locations

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Uncertainties in AERIUS calculations

‣National scale approx. 30%

‣Local scale 1 ha, approx. 50 - 70%

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‣Uncertainties:

‣Dry deposition velocity

‣Input parameters

‣Description physical proces

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Reducing uncertainties…

‣Long term: (dry) deposition measurements to better understand and the deposition process itself and make validation of modeling results possible

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‣Short term:

‣More accurate information and description of emission sources

‣Further enhance use of local specific surface roughness length

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Reviews and validation

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‣Validated by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)

‣TNO, Assessment on usability for legislation (scientific and practical)

‣International Review on modeling (NL, UK, DK)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

View from users

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Meaningful results

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Quantifying effects of Nitrogen deposition?

‣Distance to Critical Load

‣Classification refers to scientific studies (for specific HT-types)

‣Indication of severity of exceedance

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‣AERIUS ≠ ecological assessment

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N-deposition

N-s

peci

es

CL 2x CL

+/- 0.5 kgN

Stevens et al. (2010) E. Dorland and A. van Loon (2011)

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

The technology behind AERIUS

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Geoserver (WMS) Application Server

Internet

Queue

AERIUS taskmanager

WebapplicationChrome, Safari, FF, IE8+

Permit Application Appendix (PDF)Database

Postgres, PostGIS

GMLQueue

Tomcat, servlet container

Workers nitrogen deposition (OPS)

Workers GIS export(GML)

Workers PDF export

RabbitMQ(AMQP server)

Mobile WebapplicationAndroid / iOS Open Source Development

AGPL v3

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Conclusion?

‣Integral ecological assessment prior to start Integrated Approach

‣Single check for permit requests (economical development room)

‣Process of requesting a permit is optimized

‣Reduction in time and costs

‣Quality control / harmonisation

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Adva

ntag

es

Level of Integration

InnovationOptimum level of Integration

New optimumlevel of Integration

Insufficient integration ’Over integration’

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Looking ahead

‣Add more relevant environmental themes

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‣Use of AERIUS for assessment of air quality and human health

‣Financed by Port of Rotterdam and Environmental protection agency Rijnmond region

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‣e.g. hydrological maps

‣By using INSPIRE, AERIUS concept could be used in other EU countries

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

AERIUS Demonstration 18:30 today

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Google Chrome, Apple Safari, Mozilla Firefox, Microsoft IE9+

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

AERIUS Calculator Beta is available

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Google Chrome, Apple Safari, Mozilla Firefox, Microsoft IE9+

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

European Transshipment Company (EMO)‣Largest transshipment terminal in Western Europe

‣Since 1973 located on the Maasvlakte Rotterdam harbor

‣Unload capacity, maximum 42 mt/y iron-ore and coal

‣Storage capacity 7 mt (160 ha)

‣Largest ship size, 360.000 tons

‣Early adaptor in environmental awareness and measures

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

Building a 2nd terminal

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Hartelstrook

Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

EMO Case

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Nitrogen Deposition and the Nature Directives Workshop , Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen, Peterborough, 3 december 2013

EMO Case

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