AEI Industry Seminars 2007 Education opportunities in Latin America Opportunities in Latin America for Victorian education and training Tony Crooks Blue

AEI Industry Seminars 2007Education opportunities in Latin America

Opportunities in Latin America for Victorian education and training

Tony CrooksBlue Yonder: Global Education Strategies

Education opportunities in Latin America

Objective of the study

A Latin America Education Engagement strategy for Victoria that:

•identifies regional markets suited to Victorian capabilities

•identifies export opportunities

•defines barriers, constraints and challenges

•aligns sectors with markets

•articulates the role of DIIRD within the strategy

•recommends marketing channels/communications


Methodology

Desk research

Meetings with State sectoral groups

Interviews with individual institutions

Consultation with Australian government agencies

Consultation with Latin American governments/bodies

Interviews with education agents

Student focus groups


Latin America region

22(ish) countries

14% of Earth’s land surface

9% of world population

Racially/ethnically diverse

80% urban population

50% of world’s Catholics

8% of world GDP

Growth in 2010: 5.7%


A “Latin America decade”?

15% of world’s oil reserves • large stock of minerals

25% of world’s arable land • 30% of fresh water

If current growth maintained: per capita income US$22,000 by 2025

Challenges

Income distribution most unequal in the world

Lowest growth in productivity in the world

Little innovation (other than agriculture)


Winds of political change


Regional educational environment

Close to MDG of universal primary education by 2015

Education standards often low

Average youth literacy rate of 96% (world rate 87%)

70% commence secondary, but drop-out rate high

Females outnumber males secondary/tertiary education

Tertiary education transformed from elite to mass system

Tertiary enrolment has grown 10-fold since 1970 to 18m


Regional educational environment (2)

Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela – growth in public system

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru – growth in private sector

Non-university tertiary sector (VET): 32% tertiary enrolments in Chile, 30% in Brazil, 28% in Venezuela

University curriculum organised around licenciatura

Professional disciplines have high social prestige

Drop-out rates around 50%

Only 4% of university enrolments at postgraduate level

1 in 10 academics has PhD; 1 in 4 has PG qualification


Latin American student flows

Participation rate in international mobility < 1%

Even intra-regional mobility low (though growing)

Preferred destinations for higher education Europe, then USA (for Mexico, USA then Europe)

Growing awareness of Australia in Chile and Colombia in particular


Fourfold increase over 5 years 2004 – 2009

Fastest growth rate of any region for Australia

In 2009, contributed 34% of global growth in ELICOS enrolments

In 2009, contributed 6.5% of all commencements

Brazil only top ten source market outside of Asia

Latin Americans in Australia: headlines


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

+34%

+31%

+37%

+45%

+19%

Latin American enrolments in Australia 2001-2009: All sectors

AEI


Latin American enrolments 2009: Breakdown by sector

HE 9%

VET 30%

Schools 1%

ELICOS 58%

Other 2%


Latin Americans in Australia: relative size of markets


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10

Chile PeruBrazil Colombia

Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: All sectors

-9%

+4%

+66%+6%

Mexico Venezuela

0%+3%


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10


Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: Higher Education

-14%

+17%

+73%

+2%

Mexico Venezuela

-24%

+5%


Australian Higher Education: relative size of markets


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10


Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: VET

+22%

+23%

+76%

+6%

Mexico Venezuela

+19%

+17%


Australian VET: relative size of markets


Australia’s top 10 VET source markets 2010

by YTD commencements

8th

↓


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10


Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: ELICOS (570)

-13%

-6%

+80%

-11%

Mexico Venezuela

-8%-9%


Australian ELICOS: relative size of markets


Australia’s top 10 ELICOS source markets 2010

3rd

↓ 7th

↓

by YTD commencements


+2% +6%

+2%

-11%

Brazil commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009


Chile commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009

-14% -13%+22%


Colombia commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009

-6%

+17%+23%


Mexico commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009

+17%+5% -9%


Peru commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009

-24%

+19%

-8%


Venezuela commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009

+60%+76%

+80%


Breakdown of enrolments by sector


Breakdown of higher education enrolments by level


Latin American enrolments 2009: Breakdown by State

NSW 44%

QLD 30%

VIC 14%

WA 10%

Other 2%


Enrolments 2009 by State: Latin America vs global

NSW 44%

QLD 30%

VIC 14%WA 10%

Other 2%

NSW 38%

QLD 16%

VIC 30%

WA 8%

Other 8%

LATIN AMERICA

GLOBAL


Compound annual growth rate by State 2005 - 2009

0 10 20 30 40 50

NSW

QLD

WA

VIC


Breakdown of enrolments by State


Feedback from Victorian institutions

Unanimous support for the DIIRD initiative

Openness to engage cooperatively as State

Colombia top priority

Brazil No. 2 priority for many; others ambivalent

No clear 3rd priority: Chile, Mexico often mentioned

Frustration over Australia’s “sun’n’fun” positioning


Feedback from Victorian institutions (2)

Success: iconic brand or strong agent relations

Pressure on tuition fees and agents’ commissions

Nervousness around DIAC intentions for ALs

Some institutions picking up students on-shore; others

losing them on-shore

Support for: agent development, in-bound delegations,

Victorian education fair, scholarships, website/material in

Spanish/Portuguese, internships


Feedback from agents

Low awareness of Victoria (with exceptions)

Victoria currently least cohesive of States in approach

Promote the city rather than the State

50%+ students do not know their destination

Melbourne has best word-of-mouth

Even in Brazil, clear scope for growth – problem is not

the destination but relationship with agents


Feedback from agents (2)

Markets are cost-sensitive

Victorian ELICOS more expensive than elsewhere

Availability of work is critical

Target demographic is 26-35

Would welcome: agent fam tour, Victorian education fair,

internships, joint targeting of companies, promotional

material especially posters


Feedback from students in Chile/Brazil

All were using an agent

Info sources: (1) agent (2) friends (3) teachers (4) internet (5) fairs

For most, Victoria not in consideration set

Little info available about Victoria/Melbourne

Agents had not mentioned Victoria

Most students had contacts in Australia

Cost important, but can be over-ridden

Opportunity to work part-time is critical


Feedback from students in Chile/Brazil (2)

Safety is assumed

Migration not a driver

Sydney: “where everything happens in Australia”

Brisbane: organised and quiet

Perth: beautiful but remote

Melbourne: cosmopolitan, cultured, high quality education

Deterred by availability and cost of accommodation, cost of transport


Feedback from students in Sydney/Brisbane

All had been placed by an agent

None had considered Melbourne

Info sources: (1) agent (2) WOM (3) internet

Drivers: (1) climate (2) cost (3) beach (4) migration

Several unhappy with courses, but all would recommend their city

Melbourne: cold, poor climate, attracts “quiet students”


Feedback from students in Melbourne

All placed by agent, but several had requested Melbourne

Attraction: reputation for quality; iconic brand

USA over-familiar; UK too costly; Sydney too costly

Cost important; availability of work critical

Available work not commensurate with skills

Only one attracted by migration opportunities

Very high degree of satisfaction with courses and with city


Feedback from students in Melbourne (2)

Main attractions of living in Melbourne:

- Availability, frequency, standard of public transport

- Parks and gardens

- Access to culture

Multiculturalism – mainly positive, but mixed response

Main drawbacks of living in Melbourne:

- Cost of public transport

- Public safety concerns

- “Third world” internet infrastructure


Conclusions: general

Awareness-raising critical, particularly in Brazil

Essential to cultivate agents prepared to work for Victoria

Need to be highly selective in pursuing opportunities

Leverage quality reputation: Victoria as “Education State”

Target high end of market, not high-volume discount end

80% of Latin American students in Australia are from Colombia or Brazil

Two-speed strategy: Colombia productive in short-term, Brazil longer-term


Colombia

1,000 enrolments in Australia in 2004 – 10,000 in 2009

Recent growth has been concentrated in Australia/NZ

Accounts for 31% of all enrolments out of Latin America

Accounts for one-third of all HE enrolments

Victoria market leader in HE sector – 38% share

Loan-scholarships for HE, VET, ELICOS students

Minimal provision within Colombia for PG education

VET has grown in spite of downgrade of AL

Now major ELICOS market – with long-term students

No barrier to Victoria becoming market leader


Brazil

Potential market, according to BELTA, of 250,000

25% of market going to Canada

8,000 per year in higher education in USA

3,000 per year in NZ

By far the strongest university system in Latin America

Scholarships for PG students to be unlocked

Challenge to gain agent attention – perhaps work on agents outside Australian comfort zone

Regional approach recommended

Target Canadian/NZ market share for Victoria


Chile

2005-2009 annual growth rate to Australia 48%

Small country with low outbound mobility

Possible that Australian market may be plateauing?

WOM for Victoria strong – possible to grow share

Changes to Bicentennial Scholarships – mixed outcomes for Victorian universities

Funding available for university collaboration

Técnicos para Chile scholarships – Australia major beneficiary in first round

Consulting opportunities in VET, ELICOS


Other markets

Mexican Study Abroad in decline, but PG rising

Mexican HE funding sources undersubscribed

Fewer opportunities in VET/ELICOS

Peru – rapid growth has come to sudden halt

VET most interesting – but impact of migration policy?

Venezuela – 66% growth from small base

HE, VET, ELICOS all beneficiaries

Victoria market leader in all sectors


Identifying priority markets by sector

Potential priorities identified by evaluating:

• Global volume • Australian volume • Australian growth potential• Victorian market share• Victorian market share growth potential• Strategic value


Suggested priority markets by sector

Priority level HE VET ELICOS

Priority 1 Colombia Colombia Colombia

Priority 2 Brazil Brazil Brazil

Priority 3 Mexico Chile Chile

Secondary markets Chile Peru Venezuela

Venezuela

AEI Industry Seminars 2007Education opportunities in Latin America

¡Gracias!

Tony CrooksBlue Yonder: Global Education Strategies

Documents

AEI Industry Seminars 2007 Education opportunities in Latin America Opportunities in Latin America for Victorian education and training Tony Crooks Blue