Advisory Board Presentation (Spring 2015)€¦ · Advisory Board Presentation (Spring 2015) July 28, 2015 . Agenda Fund Overview ... Thanoozan Thangaraja, Valay Shah, Taha Shayeq,

All figures shown in $CAD millions except share price or otherwise noted

Advisory Board Presentation (Spring 2015)

July 28, 2015

Agenda

Fund Overview Macro Analysis

Historical Performance

Investment Decisions Learning and Growth

Appendices

2


Fund Overview

Spring 2015

4

Spring 2015 SAF Investment Fund Team

Team Picture

Spring 2012 Inception

Spring 2014 New Analyst

Program .

Fall 2014 Faculty Discussions &

Assigned Marks

Spring 2015 Quarterly EPS

Estimates

Fall 2013 Course Credit & Enter into U.S.

L-R (Front): Katherine Chan, Judy Dong, Daniel Zhang, Evelyn Huang, Tammy Ha, Ryan Korn, Jiacheng Fan, Adam Yan, Yidi Xiong L-R (Middle): Sophia Chen, Sean Zheng, Anthony Cheung, Andy Lu, Adnan Khan, Sami Ahmed, Christopher Chan, Raj Patel, Kobi Rasaratnam, Oliver Chan, Vincent Chow, Daniel Wu, L-R (Back): Michael Kam, John SooWon Youn, Brent Small, David Chan, Rocken Wong, Alan Cheung, Ben Krever, Thanoozan Thangaraja, Valay Shah, Taha Shayeq, Faizan Siddiqui, Eric Sherifi, Oni Prisecaru, Hasanain Habib-Nayany

5

Team Structure

Junior Portfolio Managers

David Chan (Energy), Jonathan Chan (TMT), Sophia Chen (Consumer), Alan Cheung (Healthcare), Hasanain Habib-Nayany (Industrials), Benjamin Krever (Utilities and REIT), Taha Shayeq (Materials), Adam Yan (Financials)

Faculty

Andrew Ecclestone, Craig Geoffrey, Ranjini Jha

Energy

Senior Analysts Jungmin Ha, Adnan Khan,

Rocken Wu, Daniel Wu

Junior Analysts Jiacheng Fan, Michael Kam

TMT

Senior Analysts Oni Prisecaru, Sean Zheng,

Kobisan Rasaratnam

Junior Analysts Raj Patel,

Faizan Siddiqui

Consumers

Senior Analysts Karan Balachandar,

Brent Small

Junior Analysts Valaykumar Shah,

John Youn

Healthcare

Senior Analysts Yidi Xiong,

Daniel Zhang

Junior Analysts N/A

Industrials

Senior Analysts Vincent Chow, Eric Sherifi,

Christopher Chan

Junior Analysts Samiuddin Ahmed,

Katherine Chan

Materials

Senior Analysts Oliver Chan,

Thanoozan Thangaraja

Junior Analysts Anthony Cheung, Qi (Judy) Dong

Utilities Financials

Senior Analysts Andy Lu

Junior Analysts Evelyn Huang,

Ryan Korn

Overview

1 Weight will change according to the portfolio allocation for the period

Purpose

Objective

“To provide students with an investment management experience in an institutional setting. Specifically, it will provide students hands-on-training in equity valuation and portfolio management with guidance from industry experts and with supervision by finance faculty.”

“To generate long-term growth of the Fund’s assets. The Fund will invest in a broadly diversified portfolio of Canadian and US equities that may provide capital gains and/or income.”

Benchmark 50% S&P/TSX Total Return Index and 50% S&P 500 Total Return Index1

6

Investment Philosophy

Restrictions Constraints

Asset Class Canadian & U.S. Equities

Market Capitalization Above $300 mm

Debt Rating Greater than B

Cash & Equiv Weight 0-15%

Total Securities 10-25

Sector Weight Maximum 25%

Stock Weight Maximum 10%

U.S. Weight Maximum 50%

Ownership of Shares

Less than 5% of average daily

trading volume over 10-day

period

7

Selling Discipline

We will review our holdings if…

Fundamental

Valuation

Material change in the business or in the industry

Reached 12 month target price

Price Movement

1) Exceed 25% capital gain from the time of purchase 2) Exceed 15% capital loss from the time of purchase 3) Exceed 25% decline in price from the highest price since initial purchase

8

Investment Process

1 Break down industries and further divide into sectors or sub-sectors

2 Remove any stocks within the universe that do not meet the Fund’s

restrictions

3 Select and apply relevant industry metrics for each stock

4 Rank all stocks and select the top four

5 Select one stock within the top four and conduct detailed research to

determine the recommendation (“Buy”, “Sell”, or “Hold”)

9


Macro Analysis

Spring 2015

Canada Macro Outlook

10 Yr. Unemployment Rate 5 Yr. Monthly GDP in Dollars

10 Yr. Bank of Canada Interest Rate 5 Yr. CAD to USD

Indicators suggest Canadian economy facing challenges Our outlook remains bearish going forward

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research, Date Extracted: July 20, 2015

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Jun-05 Jun-08 Jun-11 Jun-14 1,350,000

1,400,000

1,450,000

1,500,000

1,550,000

1,600,000

1,650,000

1,700,000

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Jul-05 Jul-08 Jul-11 Jul-140.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15

US Macro Outlook

10 Yr. Unemployment Rate 10 Yr. Total Construction Spending in $M

10 Yr. Retail Sales in $M 10 Yr. Consumer Confidence Index

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 201494

96

98

100

102

Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14

Leading indicators suggest US Economy finally gaining traction Our outlook remains bullish going forward

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research, Date Extracted: July 20, 2015 12

China Macro Outlook

Source: Bloomberg, Date Extracted: July 20, 2015

Shanghai Composite Index 1 Yr. Trend HSBC China PMI 5 Yr. Trend

Overall Bearish Outlook on China Recent stock market rout and panicked reaction by authorities hints at a weaker than

expected “real” economy Recent GDP and manufacturing data reinforces our outlook on the Chinese economy

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

5,000.00

5,500.00

Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-1542

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015

13

Overall Macro Outlook

Interest Rates Oil Outlook Materials Outlook

Outlook

Key Themes

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Increasing US Interest Rates due to strong US economy going forward

Canadian Interest Rates expected to remain at depressed levels given outlook for Oil and Materials

Bearish outlook on oil prices due to concerns over softening Chinese demand, and persistence of global supply glut, given recent oil output data and developments involving Iran

Bearish outlook on Copper, Iron and Zinc, due to concerns over softening Chinese demand

Neutral outlook on Gold, given the strengthening $USD, and steady jewelry demand

Financials Healthcare

TMT Utilities Consumer Industrials

Energy Materials

14


Historical Performance

Spring 2015

All data as of July 20, 2015 unless specified

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

Fund NAV Benchmark

Portfolio Returns Including Cash

Note: all figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.

Net Asset Value Including Cash

Total Returns

14.58

12.02

Fund NAV NAV Return TRI Benchmark Relative Return Avg. Cash % of Portfolio Fiscal Year '13 12.26 18.64% 20.79% -2.15% 23.6% Fiscal Year '14 12.72 3.75% 9.32% -5.57% 29.0%

Winter '15 12.72 7.89% 5.10% 2.79% 21.2% Spring '15 12.02 -5.50% 1.04% -6.54% 25.8%

Since Inception 12.02 20.20% 45.80% -25.60% 30.7%

16

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15Fund NAV - excl cash Benchmark

Portfolio Returns Excluding Cash

Note: all figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.

14.58

12.64

Net Asset Value Excluding Cash

Total Returns

Fund NAV NAV Return TRI Benchmark Relative Return Fiscal Year '13 13.08 24.69% 20.79% 3.90% Fiscal Year '14 13.63 4.20% 9.32% -5.12%

Winter '15 13.63 9.21% 5.10% 4.11% Spring '15 12.64 -7.26% 1.04% -8.30%

Since Inception 12.64 26.40% 45.80% -19.40%

17

Portfolio Characteristics

1 Monthly 5% VaR

All returns are listed on a monthly basis

Including Cash Excluding Cash Average Portfolio Return 0.53% 0.68%

Portfolio Standard Deviation 1.85% 2.39%

Average Benchmark Return 1.07% 1.07%

Benchmark Standard Deviation 2.07% 2.07%

Portfolio Beta 0.58 0.73

Portfolio Alpha (0.16%) (0.15%)

Sharpe Ratio 0.20 0.22

Value-at-Risk1 ($5,802) ($7,493)

Historical

18

Sector and Security Returns (Spring 2015)

Security Returns Sector Returns

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

AX.UNBNSBDI

CPXCCA

D.UNFM

FOSLMICGIL

GMYGN

NAPSI

RRXSAFM

SUURIVSI

WCP

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Information Technology

Materials

TelecommunicationsServices

Utilities

S&P 500 S&P/TSX Fund

19

Attribution Analysis

Winter 2015 Spring 2015

Excess Performance 2.79%

Security Selection 3.07%

Sector Allocation (0.28%)

Excess Performance (6.54%)

Security Selection (6.94%)

Sector Allocation 0.40%

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5%


Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials


Materials

Telecommunications…

Utilities

-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%


Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials


Materials

Telecommunications…

Utilities

20

Current Holdings by Value (July 27, 2015) Ticker Name Beta % Value

SUPN Supernus Pharma 0.53 5.6% $11,739 BNS Scotiabank 0.81 5.6% $11,603 GIL Gildan Activewear 0.60 5.4% $11,315 CCA Cogeco Cable 0.20 5.1% $10,731 SHLM A. Schulman 1.56 5.1% $10,687 NA National Bank 0.78 4.4% $9,106 SAFM Sanderson Farms 0.14 4.2% $8,721 G Goldcorp 1.35 4.2% $8,697 WNR Western Refining 2.15 4.1% $8,570 SU Suncor Energy 1.80 4.1% $8,507 URI United Rentals 2.81 4.1% $8,490 ATVI Activision Blizzard 1.05 4.0% $8,342 VSI Vitamin Shoppe 0.92 3.7% $7,786 CPX Capital Power 0.45 3.6% $7,578 RRX Raging River 1.77 3.4% $7,100 PSI Pason Systems 0.49 3.2% $6,605 BDI Black Diamond 1.49 3.0% $6,366 MIC Genworth MI 1.42 2.8% $5,892 GWR Genesee & Wyoming 1.56 2.5% $5,259 FM First Quantum 3.62 2.5% $5,202 SPR Spirit AeroSystems 1.25 2.3% $4,722 LUV Southwest Airlines 0.91 2.2% $4,572 D.UN DREAM Office REIT 0.66 2.0% $4,241 Market Value $181,833 Cash $27,184 Portfolio Value $209,032

SUPN6%

BNS6%

GIL6%

CCA6%

SHLM6%

NA5%

SAFM5%

G5%WNR

5%SU5%

URI5%

ATVI5%

VSI4%

CPX4%

RRX4%

PSI4%

BDI4%

MIC3%

GWR3%

FM3%

SPR3%

LUV3%

D.UN2%

21

Returns Breakdown

1 Monthly 5% VaR

-80% -40% 0% 40% 80%Capital Gain Dividend

Ticker Name Initial Purchase

Current Price

Target Price

Return Since Inception

Capital Gains vs. Dividends

Monthly 5% VaR

BNS Scotiabank Mar-13 $61.04 $72.00 10.0% (7.1%) SUPN Supernus Pharma Jul-15 US$20.03 US$21.94 0.0% (21.7%) GIL Gildan Activewear Mar-14 $43.62 $45.00 63.8% (12.9%) SHLM A. Schulman Jul-15 US$35.64 US$42.00 0.0% (15.2%) CCA Cogeco Cable Dec-13 $72.03 $77.00 38.6% (14.0%) NA National Bank Aug-12 $43.74 $55.00 27.6% (8.5%) G Goldcorp Dec-12 $16.48 $22.80 (49.7%) (17.7%) WNR Western Refining Jul-15 US$44.07 US$50.00 0.0% (26.9%) SAFM Sanderson Farms Jul-14 US$66.63 US$82.00 (15.0%) (15.4%) SU Suncor Energy Mar-13 $32.63 $37.00 14.5% (13.6%) ATVI Activision Blizzard Jul-15 US$25.64 US$29.00 0.0% (10.2%) URI United Rentals Apr-15 US$65.81 US$93.00 (13.3%) (25.4%) VSI Vitamin Shoppe Jul-14 US$35.29 US$38.00 (4.5%) (11.5%) CPX Capital Power Dec-12 $21.95 $24.39 13.8% (6.8%) RRX Raging River Jul-14 $7.13 $7.90 (6.9%) (18.2%) PSI Pason Systems Dec-14 $18.95 $25.00 (23.7%) (12.9%) BDI Black Diamond Mar-13 $14.10 $16.00 (10.4%) (19.5%) MIC Genworth MI Apr-15 $29.35 $37.00 5.0% (10.9%) FM First Quantum Dec-14 $11.77 $14.70 (22.4%) (19.8%) GWR Genesee & Wyoming Jul-15 US$67.17 US$86.91 0.0% (12.9%) SPR Spirit AeroSystems Jul-15 US$51.87 US$68.00 0.0% (17.6%) LUV Southwest Airlines Jul-15 US$35.22 US$45.00 0.0% (14.1%) D.UN DREAM Office REIT Dec-13 $23.50 $29.76 0.5% (9.0%)

22

Portfolio Breakdown

Industrials 20%

Financials 17%

Consumer 15%

Materials 14%

Energy 13%

TMT 11%

Healthcare 6%

Utilities 4%

Canada 57%

U.S. 43%

Mid Cap 33%

Small Cap 33%

Large Cap 34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Consumer Financials TMT Materials Energy Healthcare Industrials Utilities

SIF Portfolio S&P TSX S&P 500

23

Correlation Analysis BNS NA SU ATVI LUV SPR GIL GWR URI SHLM FM BDI SAFM D.UN PSI MIC WNR CCA CPX VSI RRX G SUPN

BNS 1.00 0.81 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.15 0.08 -0.06

NA 0.81 1.00 0.43 0.40 0.35 0.40 0.34 0.30 0.23 0.25 0.38 0.36 0.19 0.41 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.10 0.04 -0.01

SU 0.58 0.43 1.00 0.39 0.23 0.48 0.08 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.64 0.36 0.24 0.23 0.43 0.12 0.32 0.37 0.12 0.10 0.17 0.41 0.03

ATVI 0.50 0.40 0.39 1.00 0.34 0.33 0.18 0.37 0.39 0.35 0.31 0.34 0.30 0.32 0.25 0.08 0.25 0.25 0.19 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.08

LUV 0.50 0.35 0.23 0.34 1.00 0.50 0.40 0.52 0.50 0.39 0.15 0.20 0.28 0.30 0.35 0.29 0.28 0.25 0.38 0.15 0.11 -0.05 -0.09

SPR 0.49 0.40 0.48 0.33 0.50 1.00 0.22 0.42 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.31 0.41 0.33 0.20 0.30 0.38 0.10 0.18 0.17 0.09 -0.04

GIL 0.46 0.34 0.08 0.18 0.40 0.22 1.00 0.27 0.13 0.08 0.00 0.25 0.04 0.27 0.12 0.21 0.13 0.02 0.13 0.14 0.07 -0.11 0.00

GWR 0.45 0.30 0.53 0.37 0.52 0.42 0.27 1.00 0.61 0.53 0.38 0.32 0.26 0.14 0.46 0.19 0.34 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.20 0.26 0.03

URI 0.44 0.23 0.51 0.39 0.50 0.46 0.13 0.61 1.00 0.51 0.37 0.19 0.40 0.11 0.49 0.24 0.39 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.09 0.21 -0.10

SHLM 0.37 0.25 0.49 0.35 0.39 0.43 0.08 0.53 0.51 1.00 0.50 0.36 0.26 0.19 0.35 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.24 0.18 0.30 0.17 0.12

FM 0.37 0.38 0.64 0.31 0.15 0.43 0.00 0.38 0.37 0.50 1.00 0.41 0.27 0.44 0.37 0.11 0.33 0.36 0.06 0.05 0.09 0.44 -0.06

BDI 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.20 0.45 0.25 0.32 0.19 0.36 0.41 1.00 0.18 0.40 0.38 0.17 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.26 0.20 0.00 -0.04

SAFM 0.31 0.19 0.24 0.30 0.28 0.31 0.04 0.26 0.40 0.26 0.27 0.18 1.00 0.01 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.26 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.11 -0.23

D.UN 0.29 0.41 0.23 0.32 0.30 0.41 0.27 0.14 0.11 0.19 0.44 0.40 0.01 1.00 0.18 0.03 0.25 0.31 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.00

PSI 0.29 0.21 0.43 0.25 0.35 0.33 0.12 0.46 0.49 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.23 0.18 1.00 0.11 0.39 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.21 0.26 0.00

MIC 0.27 0.20 0.12 0.08 0.29 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.24 0.27 0.11 0.17 0.13 0.03 0.11 1.00 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.20 0.20 -0.07 -0.20

WNR 0.25 0.20 0.32 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.13 0.34 0.39 0.29 0.33 0.13 0.10 0.25 0.39 0.03 1.00 0.15 0.11 0.20 0.08 0.16 0.02

CCA 0.24 0.19 0.37 0.25 0.25 0.38 0.02 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.36 0.11 0.26 0.31 0.19 0.03 0.15 1.00 0.14 0.04 -0.03 0.21 -0.26

CPX 0.22 0.21 0.12 0.19 0.38 0.10 0.13 0.19 0.21 0.24 0.06 0.10 0.03 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.11 0.14 1.00 0.21 0.16 -0.09 0.01

VSI 0.19 0.19 0.10 0.08 0.15 0.18 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.05 0.26 0.03 0.05 0.12 0.20 0.20 0.04 0.21 1.00 -0.17 -0.09 -0.10

RRX 0.15 0.10 0.17 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.07 0.20 0.09 0.30 0.09 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.21 0.20 0.08 -0.03 0.16 -0.17 1.00 0.02 0.34

G 0.08 0.04 0.41 0.11 -0.05 0.09 -0.11 0.26 0.21 0.17 0.44 0.00 0.11 0.06 0.26 -0.07 0.16 0.21 -0.09 -0.09 0.02 1.00 -0.11

SUPN -0.06 -0.01 0.03 0.08 -0.09 -0.04 0.00 0.03 -0.10 0.12 -0.06 -0.04 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.20 0.02 -0.26 0.01 -0.10 0.34 -0.11 1.00

24


Investment Decisions

Spring 2015

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%


S&P 500 S&P Healthcare SUPN

Buy - Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:SUPN)

Monthly VaR (5%): (21.7%) Expected Shortfall: (8.03%)

Strong current epilepsy drug portfolio Low competitive threat and consistent FFCF Future returns from R&D in neuroscience

Drivers

Risks High cost of potential litigation threats Delayed sales outreach to market saturation Slow FDA approval process going forward

US Leader in Patented Epilepsy Drugs Market Statistics Revenue by Segment

Company Overview

Valuation

5 Year Share Performance

Investment Considerations Base

$21.94 Bull

$23.76 Bear

$19.12

78%

22%

Trokendi XR Oxtellar XR

$10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35

EV / LTM Revenue

EV / LTM EBITDA

LTM P / E

DCF - Exit Multiple

DCF - Perpetual Growth

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014A -0.34 0.08 0.57 0.09 2015E 0.06 0.46e 0.48e

Share Price (US$) $20.15 Market Cap ($M) $962 Debt ($M) $11 P / E 23.0x EV / EBITDA 17.9x P / B 8.4x PEG 0.90 Dividend Yield -- Debt Rating A- Beta 0.81

Buy - Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQGS:CALM)

Monthly VaR (5%) (7.58%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Limit Buy $US47 Expected Shortfall (11.71%) 2015 A 0.57 0.76 1.06 0.96 2016 E 1.62e 1.70e

Dominant market position, economies of scale Growing focus on specialty organic egg sales Strategic expansion initiatives

Drivers

Risks Exposure to Avian Influenza Unpredictable egg selling prices at retail level Volatile cost of feed ingredients - ~62% of COGS

Largest Pure Play Egg Producer In United States

Market Statistics Revenue by Segment

Company Overview

Valuation



$63.84 Bull

$80.27 Bear

$44.21

69%

30%

1%

Non-Spec. Spec.Other

(10%)

50%

110%

170%

230%

290%


CALM Consumer Staples S&P 500

$0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00

P/E CompsEV/EBITDA Comps

P/E LTMEV/EBITDA LTM

DCF PerpetuityDCF Exit Multiple

Share Price ($US) $54.10Market Cap ($M) $2,622Net Debt ($M) ($207)P / E 16.2xEV / EBITDA 8.8xP / B 3.7xPEG 0.2xDividend Yield 1.3%Debt Rating NRBeta 0.78

Monthly VaR (5%): (15.2%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: (20.0%) 2014 A 0.52 0.23 0.65 0.51 2015 E 0.45a (0.03)a (0.34)a 0.66e 2016 E 0.36e 0.27e 0.59e 0.91e

Flexible business model to capitalize on megatrends Deep acquisition pipeline

Drivers

Risks Ability to integrate newly acquired businesses Risk of disintermediation / obsolescence Commodity price risk

International engineered plastic & plastic compound producer


Company Overview

Valuation



$42.00 Bull

$49.30 Bear

$34.40

61%23%

8%8%

EMEA North AmericaLatin America APAC

Buy - A. Schulman (Nasdaq:SHLM)

Share Price (US$) $38.07Market Cap ($M) $1,115Debt ($M) $622P / E 65.7xEV / EBITDA 10.3xP / B 2.0xPEG 4.0xDividend Yield 2.2%Debt Rating BB-Beta 1.27

Buy - Goldcorp (TSX:G)

Q1’15 Earnings: Missed on revenue and earnings; production guidance unchanged

Announced sale of 26% stake in Tahoe Resources

Investment Thesis Hedge against economic

downturn Strong senior gold miner Low cost producer Strong sustainable dividend

yield

Investment Risks Downward gold price

revision risks

Portfolio Rec. Buy Updated Intrinsic Value $22.8

Market Statistics Recent Events

Investment Outlook Return Profile

1 Year Performance

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.19 0.20 0.08 0.10 2015 E 0.01a 0.07e 0.13e 0.15e

Share Price (C$) $16.74Market Cap ($M) $13,894Total Debt $4,923P / LTM E NMP / NTM E 27.0xEV / LTM EBITDA 11.2xEV / NTM EBITDA 8.1xP / B 0.6xROE (12.9%)Dividend Yield 4.7%D / E 35.4%Beta 0.99

Purchase Date 12/05/12Purchase Price $36.50Current Price $16.74Shares Owned 240Market Value $4,018

Return - Inception (50.0%)Return - TTM (42.2%)Return - YTD (21.0%)

5% VaR (16.8%)10% VaR (13.7%)

Buy - Spirit AeroSystems (NYSE:SPR)

Monthly VaR (5%): (17.6%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: (24.9%) 2014 A 1.07 1.01 1.20 0.87 2015 E 1.28 1.08e 1.09e

Well-positioned to capitalize on industry trends Initiatives to control costs & improve margins Growth potential in aftermarket segment

Drivers

Risks Pricing renegotiation with Boeing Cost escalation on new developing programs Prevailing low oil prices

World’s Largest Supplier of Commercial Aerostructures


Company Overview

Intrinsic Value



$68.00 Bull

$86.00 Bear

$49.00

Share Price (US$) $55.82Market Cap ($M) $7,682Debt ($M) $1,145P / E 20.3xEV / EBITDA 7.8xP / B 4.3xPEG 2.0xDividend Yield 0.0%Debt Rating BBBeta 1.25

Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.22 0.70 0.49 0.28 2015 E 0.68a 0.92 0.65

Buy - Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV)

Monthly VaR (5%): (14.1%) Expected Shortfall: (17.9%)

AirTran merger integration Overblown capacity growth concerns Strong management and balance sheet

Drivers

Risks Black Swan events Labour negotiations Ongoing DOJ collusion investigation

Largest U.S. Domestic Airline Market Statistics Domestic Market Share

Company Overview

Valuation


Investment Considerations Base $45

Bull $74

Bear $23

Share Price (US$) $35.00Market Cap ($M) $23,390Debt ($M) $2,687P / E 15.1xEV / EBITDA 5.7xP / B 3.3xPEG 0.2xDividend Yield 0.9%Debt Rating BBBBeta 1.2

$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00

EV/EBITDAR

P/E

DCF

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15LUV Industrials S&P 500

Southwest, 19.06%

Delta, 15.99%

United, 9.74%

American, 9.98%

Other , 45.24%

Buy - Genesee & Wyoming (NYSE:GWR)

Monthly VaR (5%): (12.9%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: (24.8%) 2014A: 0.71A 1.12A 1.21A 1.12A 2015E: 0.83A 0.97E 1.04E

Growth-by-acquisition U.S. single-family housing recovery Increased demand for agriculture-by-rail

Drivers

Risks Ability to make accretive acquisitions Deteriorating relationships with class 1 rails Competition from other modes of transport

Leading North American mid-market railroad operator


Company Overview

Valuation


Investment Considerations

76%

10%

3%3% 2%

5%

Freight Railcar SwitchingCar Hire & Rental StorageCar Repair Other

Share Price (US$) $71.84Market Cap ($M) $4,103.6Debt ($M) $2,460.6P / E 16.8xEV / EBITDA 7.0xP / B 1.8xPEG 0.7xDividend Yield 0.0%Debt Rating BBBeta 1.33

-50.00%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15GWR NYSE Composite Index Railroads

$60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00

DCF

Monthly VaR (5%): (26.9%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: (32.7%) 2014A 1.25 1.86 2.44 1.47 2015E 1.83a 2.31e 2.18e 1.19e

Buy - Western Refining Inc. (NYSE:WNR)


Company Overview

Valuation



Bull $62

Bear $40

50%

27%

16%

7%

Refining NTI

WNRL Retail

(200%)

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

WNR Energy S&P 500

Independent oil refining and marketing company

Strong crack spread US exports of refined products Efficient assets/high margins

Drivers

Risks Volatility in dealing with 2 commodities High fixed costs Pressure to lift WTI export ban

Share Price (US$) $47.44Market Cap ($M) $4,531Debt ($M) $1,597P / E 8.1xEV / EBITDA 5.4xP / B 3.9xPEG 6.2xDividend Yield 2.9%Debt Rating B+Beta 2.02

$20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00

EV/NTM EBITDA

EV/NTM EBIT

EV/NTM EPS

DCF

Monthly VaR (5%): (10.2%) Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: (9.2%) 2014 A 0.40 0.27 (0.03) 0.49 2015 E 0.53a 0.12e 0.13e

Buy - Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI)

Strong industry growth and fundamentals Long lasting franchises with proven success Positioned to take advantage of industry trends

Drivers

Risks FX Risk Ongoing Litigation with Worlds Inc. Execution Risk

Global Developer & Publisher of Video Games


Company Overview

Valuation



Share Price (US$) $26.25Market Cap ($M) $19,062EV ($M) $18,667P / E 20.8xEV / EBITDA 13.4xP / B 2.6xDividend Yield 0.9%D / E 56.3%Debt Rating BB+Beta 0.87

50%41%

9%

N.America EuropeAPAC

(40%)

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15ATVI Information Technology S&P 500

Base $28.00

Bull $34.00

Bear $20.00

$0.00 $15.00 $30.00 $45.00

Historical - TEV / Revenue

Historical - TEV / EBITDA

DCF - Perpetuity

DCF - Exit Multiple

Sell - Myriad Genetics (NASDAQ:MYGN)

Peter Meldrum replaced by Mark Capone as CEO as of end of June 2015

Continuous delays on reimbursements for Prolaris, myPath Melanoma and Vectra DA

Myriad acquired a licensed German MVZ clinic

Significant risk of competition and sustainable market share position

Weakening margins in face of reimbursement delays

Revised revenue and margins in model

Previous Target Price Updated Target Price

$46.50 $33.75


Sell Rationale Return Profile

1 Year Performance or Since Inception

Valuation

Share Price (US$) $34.67Market Cap ($M) $2,408Debt ($M) $0P / LTM E 27.7xP / NTM E 20.3xEV / LTM EBITDA 11.6xEV / NTM EBITDA 10.6xP / B 3.6xPEG 2.2xDividend Yield 0.0%ROE 13.7%Beta 0.85

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 A 0.25 0.40 0.40 0.39e 2016 E 0.42e


Return - Purchase 10.02%Return - TTM N/AReturn - YTD 10.50%

5% VaR -17.30%10% VaR -13.10%

Sell - Fossil Group (NASDAQ:FOSL)

Q1 2015: EPS of $0.75 vs analyst estimate of $0.63; Q1 2014: $1.22; revenue misses

Macy’s CFO indicates Q1 watch sales are weak

Weak Swiss watch sales, particularly in the US and Asian markets

Michael Kors SSS unexpectedly declined 5.8% last quarter, and lowered guidance for the year

No new tangible news on Android Wear – aimed for 2H 2015

Updated Intrinsic Value $68



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Share Price (US$) $69.07Market Cap ($M) $3,371Debt ($M) $653P / LTM E 10.3xP / NTM E 12.5xEV / LTM EBITDA 6.0xEV / NTM EBITDA 7.7xP / B 3.9xPEG nmfROE 37.6%Dividend Yield 0.0%Beta 1.77

Purchase Date 12/04/14Purchase Price (US$) $109.83Current Price (US$) $69.07Shares Owned 80Market Value $5,526

Return - Inception (28.9%)Return - TTM N/AReturn - YTD (30.7%)

5% VaR (18.5%)10% VaR (10.1%)

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 1.21 0.98 1.96 3.01 2015 E 0.75a 0.79e 1.48e

Sell - Vitamin Shoppe (NYSE:VSI)

Industry investigation by FDA regarding fillers in supplements

Poor Q1: Cut sales guidance (10% to 6-8%); weak margins; SSS growth only 1.2%; ineffective promotions hurt margins

Carlson Capital discloses 5.3% stake in VSI

Increased FDA/regulatory exposure in the future – more significant impact than peers due to higher number of SKUs

Media exposure Limited new store growth



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Share Price (US$) $36.65Market Cap ($M) $1,090Debt ($M) $18P / LTM E 18.7xP / NTM E 16.7xEV / LTM EBITDA 7.7xEV / NTM EBITDA 7.6xP / B 1.9xPEG 4.3xROE 10.7%Dividend Yield 0.0%Beta 0.70

Purchase Date 07/30/14Purchase Price (US$ $44.70Current Price (US$) $36.65Shares Owned 170Market Value $6,231


5% VaR (11.5%)10% VaR (9.9%)

Portfolio Rec. Limit Sell ($38) Updated Intrinsic Value $38

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Limit Sell US$38 2014 A 0.68 0.56 0.40 0.39 2015 E 0.63a 0.51e 0.50e

Sell - Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL)

Q2 2015: 15.9% YoY sales growth – 14% growth in Printwear, 20% in Branded. EPS in-line with expectations, slight revenue beat

2H 2015: Traid plant production expected to begin

Investment Thesis Strong FCF for acquisitions Investments in cost-

reduction

Investment Risks Valuation – high multiples

Portfolio Rec. Limit Sell ($45) Updated Intrinsic Value $45



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Limit Sell C$45 2014 A 0.17 0.32 0.47 0.50 2015 E (0.17)a 0.23a 0.45e 0.56e

Purchase Date 04/02/14Purchase Price (C$) $27.34Current Price (C$) $44.42Shares Owned 260Market Value $11,549

Return - Inception 63.7%Return - TTM 38.6%Return - YTD 35.7%

5% VaR (12.9%)10% VaR (8.8%)

Share Price (C$) $44.42Market Cap ($M) $10,798Debt ($M) $618P / LTM E 34.5xP / NTM E 20.6xEV / LTM EBITDA 25.0xEV / NTM EBITDA 15.6xP / B 4.5xPEG 4.3xROE 13.5%Dividend Yield 0.8%Beta 0.71


Return - Inception (7.3%)Return - TTM (46.4%)Return - YTD 37.1%

5% VaR (14.6%)10% VaR (10.9%)

Share Price (US$) $17.15Market Cap ($M) $704.80EV ($M) $895.34P / LTM E 27.8xP / NTM E 29.2xEV / LTM EBITDA 7.3xEV / NTM EBITDA 8.5xROE 8.0%Dividend Yield 5.6%D / E 51.9%Beta 1.35PEG

Sell - Black Diamond Group (TSX:BDI) Market Data 1Y Stock Performance & Recent Events

Portfolio Data Valuation Summary Previous/Updated $16 / $16

(-6%) Selling Rationale • Has surpassed its previous target

price – investment thesis of undervaluation in oil sands realized and operated-to-home conversion realized

• Significant growth only expected to come from one avenue – new LNG projects (~9000 beds)

• Trend is for more flexible short-term contracts

May 7th – Q1 result announced:

Lower utilization rates on structures (~10%)

EPS decreased ~50% Lower CapEX

Q2 on August 13 Increased 29% since last

coverage in April Increased LOC facility Recent selloff of shares by

insiders and short-interest recently up at highest in YTD

Sell Rationale

(100%)

(50%)

0%

50%

100%

Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15

BDI Industrials TSX

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00

DCF

EV/Revenue

P/E

EV/EBITDA

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.42 0.22 0.26 (0.09) 2015 E 0.22a 0.13e 0.17e

Sell - Whitecap Resources (TSX:WCP)

Acquired Beaumont Energy for $517 MM primarily through stock

Bought-deal financing of $110 MM for 8 MM shares to fund acquisition

Impact from NDP tax Hike? Partially, as there are

operations in Alberta

2P reserves cannot justify current price

Bearish outlook on oil means possible reserves / growth projects will likely be uneconomical to develop

Revised NAV model assumptions

Updated Intrinsic Value $8.25



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.02 0.84 0.35 0.65 2015 E (0.12)a 0.14e 0.12e

Share Price (C$) $10.82 Market Cap ($M) $3,225 Debt ($M) $820 P / LTM E 6.4x P / NTM E 35.1x EV / LTM EBITDA 5.8x EV / NTM EBITDA 7.2x P / B 1.1x PEG nmf ROE 20.6% Dividend Yield 6.9% Beta 1.55

Purchase Date 04/09/15 Purchase Price (C$) $15.00 Current Price (C$) $10.82 Shares Owned 400 Market Value $4,328

Return - Purchase (26.6%) Return - TTM (32.4%) Return - YTD (5.4%)

5% VaR (12.0%) 10% VaR (8.7%)

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15WCP TSX - Energy TSX WTI

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00

52 Wk Range

NAV

EV / LTM EBITDA

EV / NTM EBITDA

EV / 2P Reserves

Sell - Artis REIT (TSX:AX.UN)

Updated Intrinsic value $13.82

Initial investment driver no longer suitable

Large exposure to Alberta market (40%)

Unfavorable valuation

Exposure to depressed Calgary market

Benefiting from strong USD

600k sqf currently in development, total pipeline of 2.2mm sqf

Disposition of assets and acquisitions in the USA

Quarterly FFO/Share: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.36 2015 E 0.37a 0.38e 0.38e

Market Statistics Recent Events Performance Since Purchase

Sell Rationale Return Profile Valuation

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Aug-2013 Feb-2014 Aug-2014 Feb-2015Artis REIT TSX Composite TSX REIT Index


Return - Inception 3.0% Return - TTM (6.8%) Return - YTD 1.4%

5% VaR (8.8%) 10% VaR (7.1%)

Share Price (US$) $13.75 Market Cap ($M) $1,892 Total Debt $2,776 P / FFO 9.5x FFO Payout 74 Payout Ratio 107 ROE 5.8% Dividend Yield 7.9% Debt Rating NR Beta 0.91

$0 $15 $30

LTM P/AFFO

LTM P/FFO

NAV

52 Week Range

Sell - First Quantum (TSX:FM)

Q1’15 Earnings: Missed on revenue and earnings

Announced a $1.4B equity Issue; proceeds to be used to finance developments and pay down debt

Reported ramp-up at Kansanshi smelter project

Downward copper price revision risks amidst concerns on China

Zambia country risk more than anticipated

Reassessment of Cobre Panama project valuation

Updated Intrinsic Value $14.7



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Limit Sell $14.70 2014 A 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.13 2015 E -0.02a 0.09e 0.14e 0.19e

Share Price (C$) $13.90Market Cap ($M) $9,577Total Debt $7,980P / LTM E 10.6xP / NTM E 16.9xEV / LTM EBITDA 12.9xEV / NTM EBITDA 10.1xP / B 0.7xROE 7.9%Dividend Yield 0.7%D / E 83.3%Beta 2.07



5% VaR (20.6%)10% VaR (16.1%)


Learning and Growth

Spring 2015

Initiatives

Annual Report

Report to Industry Mentors

Advisory Board Presentation

Meet and Greet with Industry Mentors

Communication to Stakeholders

Investment Boot Camp

Guest and Faculty

Speakers

Weekly Meetings with

Faculty

Bloomberg / Capital IQ Training Sessions

SAF Student-run Investment

Fund Panel

Professional Development

42

Lessons Learned

Faizan Siddiqui, Junior Analyst

Having gained experience in the field prior to joining the fund allowed me to play a dual role; as a teacher for my partner and a junior analyst. Doing so allowed me to learn various things about doing proper analysis that I probably would not have seen if I was working alone.

“

”

It is important to develop our own investment arguments, and to think critically, when valuing a stock. We conduct our own research, create supporting assumptions, and arrive at a detailed and independent thesis of the company in question.

“

”

Brent Small, Senior Analyst

Taha Shayeq, Junior Portfolio Manager

It is important to be able to differentiate between a good company and a good stock. A company might have the best business in the world but the price may not warrant a buy. This is where discipline really works with you.

“

”

My time with the Student Investment Fund has taught me about what drives company and industry growth with both a micro and macro view. Beyond this, it has taught me to challenge assumptions that the market has made and to really think for myself and form my own opinions.

“

”

Anthony Cheung, Junior Analyst

45

Sample Co-op Placements

Analyst, Investment

Banking

Analyst, Investment

Banking

Analyst, Global Corp.

Securities

Analyst, Private Equity

Analyst, Private Equity

46

Analyst, Investment

Banking

Research Intern

Analyst, Private Investment Valuation

Finance Intern

Analyst, Relationship

Investing

Analyst, Business

Development

Analyst, Derivative Products

Sample Full-Time Placements

Andrew George-Parkin

Bond Analyst (2014)

Michael Liu

IB Analyst (2015) CIBC IB Analyst

(2014)

Sunny Guo

Trading Analyst (2014)

Michael Wang

IB Analyst (2014)

Anqi Wang

IB Analyst (2014)

Linda Teng

Research Analyst (2014)

Nitish Sharma

Consultant (2014)

Dustin Fader

IT Analyst (2014)

Jing Xu

Public Markets Analyst (2014)

Joanne Toporowski

IB Analyst (2014)

William Li

Infrastructure Advisory (2014)

Jiatong Ma

Analyst (2014)

Chi Liu

Associate, Treasury Finance

(2014)

Alex Wang

Analyst, M&A Transactions

(2014)

47

Judith Ma

Analyst, M&A Transactions

(2014)

Sample Full-Time Placements

Jonathan Chu

Analyst (2014)

Jacky Lam

IB Analyst (2014)

David Xu

Global Infrastructure

Advisory (2014) Courtland Livesley-

James

IB Analyst (2015)

Krishna Murali

IB Analyst (2015)

Louis Hong

Assistant Trader (2015)

48

Camille Tan

Analyst (2015)

Industry Mentors

Lu Jiang Niall Glynn Pawel Rajszel David Middleton Dorena Tu

Mike Williams Jin Li Nader Ahmed Ian Gutwinski Derek Chu

Aly Hadibhai Kevin Huynh Meng Wang Ray Wan David Lee

Simon Kwan Michael Liu Nick Gill Jonathan Sue Howard Leung

49

Industry Mentors

Milenko Sikljovan Michael Wang Frank Hayes, Faculty

50

Jacky Lam

Partners

Craig Geoffrey Ranjini Jha Andrew Ecclestone

John Gort (Chair) Jeffrey Stacey Thomas Scott Dennis Huber Aazar Zafar Dan Lavric Alan Douglas

Lynn Graham

Faculty

Advisory Board

Student Relations

51


Appendix – Stock Pitches Throughout the Term

Spring 2015

Almost Family Inc. (NasdaqGS:AFAM)

Monthly VaR (5%) = -21.8% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall = -27.7% 2014 A 0.14 0.43 0.44 0.51 2015 E 0.47a 0.51e 0.46e

Tremendous demand growth expected Track record for accretive acquisitions Strong reputation with a strive for quality services

Drivers

Risks Highly fragmented industry Dependent on government reimbursements Revenues sensitive to episode rate cuts

Delaware-based home health care service company


Company Overview

Valuation



$44.08 Bull

$48.53 Bear

$41.61

76.8%

22.7%0.5%

VN PC Innovations

(100%)

(50%)

-

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14

AFAM Healthcare S&P 500

Share Price (US$) $43.23Market Cap ($M) $412Debt ($M) $55P / E 24.2xEV / EBITDA 14.2xP / B 1.7xPEG 4.9xDividend Yield 0.0%Debt Rating NRBeta 1.34

$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00

P / E

EV / Rev

EV / EBITDA

DCF

Monthly VaR (5%) -21.54% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall -21.34% 2014 A 0.47 0.36 0.42 0.38 2015 E 0.59a 0.41e 0.53e

Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Inc (NASDAQ:PLKI)

Strong and sustainable business model Competitive business strategy Aggressive store growth

Drivers

Risks Healthy eating trend Competition from fast-casual competitors Macroeconomic factors

American chain of chicken fast-food restaurants


Company Overview

Valuation



$61.91 Bull

$114.60 Bear

$42.68

57% 40%

3%

Company FranchisedOther

Share Price (US$) $59.01Market Cap ($M) $1,366Debt ($M) $110P / E 34.4xEV / EBITDA 18.5xP / B 19.4xPEG 1.20xDividend Yield 0.0%Debt Rating NRBeta 1.49

$0.00 $40.00 $80.00 $120.00 $160.00

TEV / EBITP / E

DCF - TEV / EBITDADCF - TEV / EBIT

DCF - P / EDCF - Perpetual Growth

-150.00%

0.00%

150.00%

300.00%

450.00%

600.00%

750.00%

Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15

PLKI Restaurants

Valuation

Company Overview

Compass Minerals International (NYSE:CMP)

▲ Strategic Asset Base ▲ Strong Financial Growth ▲ Quality Management Team

5-Year Share Performance

Investment Considerations Drivers

Risks ▲ Technological Advancements ▲ Seasonality of Sales ▲ Government Laws and Regulations

CMP is a leading producer of salt and SOP fertilizers. Market Statistics Revenue by Segment

Share Price($U) Market Cap($M) Debt($M) P/E EV/EBITDA P/B PEG Dividend Yield Debt Rating Beta

$82.86 $2,790

$625 12.3x

9.5x 4.3x

1.37x 3.2% BB+ 0.83

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

2010-01-04 2011-01-04 2012-01-04 2013-01-04 2014-01-04 2015-01-04

CMP S&P 500 S&P Materials

Base $97.87

Bull $114.27

Bear $72.54

Price Target: $97.87; Implied Upside of 18.11% Monthly VaR (5%): -3.00% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: -5.47% 2014 A 1.49 -0.02 2.60 2.38 2015 E 1.44A 1.20E 1.25E 1.33E

21%

49%

30%

Plant NutritionHighway DeicingConsumer & Industrial

$0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00

P/E

EV/EBITDA

DCF - Perpetuity

DCF - Exit Multiple

PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (TSX:PSK)

Monthly VaR (5%): -3.4% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: -5.2% 2014 A N/A 1.00 0.44 1.14 2015 E 0.11a 0.22e 0.21e

Higher margins due to lower cost base Perpetual optionality of oil and gas properties New NDP government review of royalty rates

Drivers

Risks Low oil price environment Reliance on oil and gas production Highly competitive industry (E&P companies)

Canada’s Leading Oil and Gas Royalty Company


Company Overview

Valuation

Share Performance Since IPO


Bull $75

Bear $16

74%

14%

12%

Oil NGL Gas

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15

PSK Energy TSX

Share Price (C$) $28.02Market Cap ($M) $4,367Debt ($M) $0P / E 19.1xEV / EBITDA 14.8xP / B 4.5xPEG nmfDividend Yield 4.6%Debt Rating NRBeta 0.62

$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00

P/E

EV/DACF

EV/Revenue

EV/EBITDA

DCF

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO)

Strategic positioning and attractive margins Strong management with breadth of expertise

Drivers

Risks Crude supply shocks, particularly WTI-grade EPA regulations surrounding sulfur content Employee strikes

Crude oil refining and marketing activities in the US


Company Overview

Valuation



Bull $120

Bear $70

(100%)0%

100%200%300%400%500%600%700%

TSO Energy S&P 500

Monthly VaR (5%) = -4.7% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall = -7.3% 2014A 0.58 1.70 3.05 1.13 2015 1.15(A) 2.24e 2.61e

Share Price (US$) $99.59Market Cap ($M) $12,532Debt ($M) $4,144P / E 13.7xEV / EBITDA 8.4xP / B 2.7xPEG 0.67xDividend Yield 1.7%Debt Rating BB+Beta 1.79

76%

1%

23%

Refining Logistics Retail

$0 $50 $100 $150

DCFComparables EV/EBITDA

Comparables EV/RevenueComparables P/E

Comparables P/BV

Valuation

Company Overview

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ)

▲ Growth in the solar and PV industry ▲ Diversification into higher margin utility projects ▲ Imminent launch of Yield Co. causes

undervaluation


Drivers & Risks Drivers

Risks ▲ Reduced government Feed-in-Tariffs ▲ Slowing demand of electricity in emerging markets ▲ Oversupply of PV could drive margins down

CSIQ designs, manufactures and sells photovoltaics

Market Data Revenue by Geography

Share Price (C$) Market Cap ($M) Debt ($M) P/E EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue Dividend Yield Debt Rating Beta

$26.36 $1,473 $1,009

5.3x 4.4x 0.7x

0.0% NR

2.90

-100%-50%

0%50%

100%150%200%250%300%

2010-06-01 2012-06-01 2014-06-01

CSIQ SP500 S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index

Base $36

Bull $50

Bear $25

Weekly VaR (5%): -14.67% Expected Shortfall: -18.55%

Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014A $ 0.07 $ 0.95 $ 1.75 $ 1.28 2015E $ 1.04 $ 0.31 $ 0.90 $ 1.22

61%

31%

8%

AmericasAsia and OthersEurope

$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00

DCF - Perpetuity

DCF - Exit Multiple

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/REVENUE

BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK)

Monthly VaR (5%): -3.38% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: -5.44% 2014A 4.47 4.79 5.46 4.86 2015 4.92A 4.96A 4.98E 5.38E

Clear leadership within the industry Sector growth driven by global AUM growth Track record of continuous of cost leadership

Drivers

Risks Technology threatens to lower barriers to entry

E.g. Robo-advisors Continual downward pressure on fees

World’s Leading Traditional Asset Manager


Company Overview

Valuation



Bull $418

Bear $292

86%

6% 5% 3%

Management FeeRisk ManagementPerformanceOthers

$200 $300 $400 $500

Perpetuity Growth

Exit Multiple

Share Price (US$) $353.10Market Cap ($M) $58,748Debt ($M) $44,269P / E 17.8xEV / EBITDA 12.9xP / B 2.2xPEG 1.6xDividend Yield 2.5%Debt Rating AA-Beta 1.36

Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA)

Monthly VaR (5%) - 4.26% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall – 6.15% 2014 A (0.09) (0.07) (0.07) 0.30 2015 E (0.14)a 0.08e 0.10e

Rapidly Expanding BI Software Industry Scalable Business Model Unique Value Proposition

Drivers

Risks Software Partnership Risk Revenue Dependence on Tableau Desktop Risk Disruptive Innovation Risk

Tableau is a leader in business analytics solutions


Company Overview

Valuation

Share Performance Since IPO


Maintenance & Services

35%Liscensing

65%

Share Price $ 127.44 Market Cap ($M) $ 9,067 EV ($M) $ 8,352 P/Tang BV 13.0x EV/EBITDA 811.27x TEV/Revenue 17.7x Net Debt (716)

Beta 1.62

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Rela

tive

Retu

rn

NYSE:DATA S&P 500

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300

52 Week Range

DCF - Perpetuity

DCF - Exit Multiple

Peer EV/Revenue

Base $175.00

Bull $243.75

Bear $111.90

DH Corporation (TSX:DH)

Monthly VaR (5%): -8.85% Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Expected Shortfall: -12.67% 2014 A 0.15 0.37 0.40 0.39 2015 E 0.39a 0.43e 0.45e

Cross-selling opportunities within the US Strong fundamentals and recurring revenue Macroeconomic tailwinds

Drivers

Risks Integration risk for acquisitions Lower housing activity and banking transactions Consolidation in the financial institutions sector

Canada’s Leading Financial Technology Provider


Company Overview

Valuation



$44.88 Bull

$50.96 Bear

$38.28

-40%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

2010-07 2011-07 2012-07 2013-07 2014-07 2015-07

TSX DH Software Index

20%

21%

16%

43%

FundtechPayment SolutionsEnterprise SolutionsLending Solutions

Share Price (C$) $41.33Market Cap ($M) $4,363Debt ($M) $1,060P / E 26.7xEV / EBITDA 18.6xP / B 2.4xPEG 3.8xDividend Yield 3.1%Debt Rating NRBeta 0.95

$30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60

DCF - Perp Growth

DCF - Exit Multiple

Comparable P / E

Comparable EV / Revenue

Comparable EV / EBITDA


Appendix – Current Holdings

Spring 2015

Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ:SAFM)

Avian flu in Midwest US Anticipated weaker chicken

prices and weaker margins Rising short interest –

some investors have begun to cover

CEO Joe Sanderson against curbing use of antibiotics on poultry, as proposed by the US CDC

Investment Thesis Healthy eating trends High margins in big-bird

deboning

Investment Risks Avian flu Regulatory risk

Stock Rec. Portfolio Rec. Updated Intrinsic Value

Buy Hold $82



1 Year Performance

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 1.25 2.21 3.30 3.93 2015 E 2.87a 3.13a 3.04e 2.33e

Share Price (US$) $67.90Market Cap ($M) $1,522Debt ($M) $10P / LTM E 5.1xP / NTM E 6.7xEV / LTM EBITDA 2.6xEV / NTM EBITDA 3.1xP / B 1.6xPEG 0.8xROE 35.7%Dividend Yield 1.3%Beta 0.96

Purchase Date 07/30/14Purchase Price (US$ $93.68Current Price (US$) $67.90Shares Owned 100Market Value $6,790


5% VaR (15.4%)10% VaR (12.0%)

Share Price (US$) $82.32Market Cap ($M) $7,982.57EV ($M) $15,800.57P / LTM E 14.2xP / NTM E 9.7xEV / LTM EBITDA 8.9xEV / NTM EBITDA 5.4xROE 36.0%Dividend Yield 0.0%D / E 540.5%Beta 2.43PEG 0.68

United Rentals (NYSE:URI) Market Data 1Y Stock Performance & Recent Events


(13%)

Investment Thesis •Growth of North American Rental Industry •Recovery of Non-Residential Construction Sector Investment Risks •US Highway Trust Fund Model Changes • Lowered terminal value on growth rate and softer 2015 numbers

Q1 Results: EPS up to $1.19

beating expectations of $1.13

Slight increase in total utilization

Q2 due July 23 May 28 - CEO mentioned

soft May numbers – 20% drop

Construction spending outlook remains high (housing starts up 5% YoY)

Hold Rationale

(25%)

(5%)

15%

35%

May-14 Nov-14 May-15URI Industrials S&P 500


Return - Inception (30.6%)Return - TTM N/AReturn - YTD N/A

5% VaR (25.4%)10% VaR (18.3%) $60.00 $100.00 $140.00

DCF - Growth

DCF - Exit

P/E

EV/EBITDA


Pason Systems (TSX:PSI) Market Data 1Y Stock Performance & Recent Events


(19%)

Investment Catalysts • Leader in oil rig instrumentation • Opportunity to cross-sell and

deliver new products • International rollout Investment Risks • Dependent on oil rig activity Model Changes • Lowered terminal value on growth rate and softer 2015 numbers

May 5th – Q1 result announced:

Lower CapEX (~50%) EPS decreased 32% Rental days down 40% Int. Revenue increasing

Stakic, CTO from Shaw, joins Pason team

Aug 11th – Q2 Results JV in Saudi is gaining

traction International revenues (13% of total) up

CapEX program cut in half

Hold Rationale

Share Price (US$) $21.04Market Cap ($M) $1,759.14EV ($M) $1,567.35P / LTM E 16.7xP / NTM E 65.6xEV / LTM EBITDA 6.9xEV / NTM EBITDA 15.0xROE 23.2%Dividend Yield 3.2%D / E 0.0%Beta 1.03PEG



5% VaR (15.2%)10% VaR (10.4%)

(50%)(40%)(30%)(20%)(10%)

0%10%20%30%

Jul-14 Feb-15

PSI Energy TSX

$0.00 $40.00

DCF - Growth

DCF - Exit

P/E

EV/EBITDA


Suncor Energy (TSX:SU)

$600 - $800 MM cost savings to be realized in 2015 instead of 2015-2016. Capex budget decreased by $1 Bn

Golden Eagle at ~60% of and ramping up to peak production by end of 2015

Impact from NDP tax hike?

Taxes increase by 2%


Buy Hold

$37.00



Performance since Purchase

Valuation

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 1.01 0.14 0.63 0.06 2015 E (0.24)a 0.24e 0.25e

Share Price (C$) $33.86 Market Cap ($M) $48,948 Debt ($M) $14,347 P / LTM E 57.3x P / NTM E 28.2x EV / LTM EBITDA 6.0x EV / NTM EBITDA 7.0x P / B 1.2x PEG 9.4x ROE 2.1% Dividend Yield 3.3% Beta 1.86


Return - Purchase 14.5% Return - TTM (21.6%) Return - YTD (6.7%)

5% VaR (13.2%) 10% VaR (11.4%)

Investment Thesis Integration allows capture of

price differentials High reserve base

Investment Risks High cost of in-situ projects

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15SU TSX - Energy TSX WTI

$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00

52 Wk Range

NAV

EV / LTM EBITDA

EV / NTM EBITDA

EV / 2P Reserves

Raging River Exploration (TSX:RRX)

Bought-deal equity financing; 14 MM shares, proceeds of $88 MM. Completed acquisition of Dodsland Viking light oil assets for $36 MM

Increased capex budget by $20 MM to $230 MM

Impact from NDP tax hike? None; operates in SK

Investment Thesis Low cash operating costs Strong management team

Investment Risks Valuation dependent on

development of reserves Commodity price risk


Buy Hold

$7.90



1 Year Performance

Valuation


Share Price (C$) $7.54 Market Cap ($M) $1,490 Debt ($M) $66 P / LTM E 16.4x P / NTM E 34.3x EV / LTM EBITDA 7.0x EV / NTM EBITDA 7.9x P / B 2.5x PEG nmf ROE 17.4% Dividend Yield 0.0% Beta 1.53

Purchase Date 07/31/14 Purchase Price (C$) $8.10 Current Price (C$) $7.54 Shares Owned 1,000 Market Value $7,540

Return - Purchase (6.9%) Return - TTM (23.5%) Return - YTD 2.7%

5% VaR (11.8%) 10% VaR (10.5%) $0 $5 $10 $15

52 Wk Range

NAV

EV / LTM EBITDA

EV / NTM EBITDA

EV / 2P Reserves

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15RRX TSX - Energy TSX WTI

Dream Office REIT (TSX:D.UN)

Investment Thesis High quality portfolio

in office space

Investment Risks Calgary Market Interest Rates Governance issues

Exposure to depressed Calgary market

Management restructuring

Western Canada & Calgary leases expiring soonest

Calgary’s office vacancy rate has risen to 13%, Dream’s occupancy yet to be seen

Quarterly FFO/Share: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 A 0.72 0.73 0.71 0.71 2015 E 0.71a 0.72e 0.71e

Market Statistics

Return Profile

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Dec-2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 Jun-2015

Dream REIT TSX REIT Index TSX Composite


Return - Inception 0.5% Return - TTM (6.5%) Return - YTD 3.8%

5% VaR (9.0%) 10% VaR (6.2%)

Share Price (US$) $24.81 Market Cap ($M) $2,815 Total Debt $3,104 P / FFO 9.0x FFO Payout 56 Payout Ratio 102 ROE 4.5% Dividend Yield 9.0% Debt Rating NR Beta 0.77

Recommendation Previous Target Price Updated Target Price

Hold $31.00 $29.76

Recent Events Performance Since Purchase

Investment Outlook Valuation

$0 $15 $30 $45 $60

LTM P/AFFO

LTM P/FFO

NAV

52 - Week Range

Recommendation Previous Target Price Updated Target Price

Hold $27.00 $24.39

Capital Power (TSX:CPX)

Investment Thesis High quality power

generation portfolio Stable power purchase

agreements

Investment Risks Volatile power prices Political climate

Market Statistics

Return Profile

Low Alberta power prices

Alberta movement away from coal

Majority of projects have 97% hedge for 2015 at mid 50s, 49% hedge for 2016 at mid 50s


-20%

0%

20%

40%

Dec-2012 Sep-2013 Jun-2014 Mar-2015

TSX Composite TSX Utilities Index Capital Power


Return - Inception 13.8% Return - TTM (12.6%) Return - YTD (13.7%)

5% VaR (6.8%) 10% VaR (5.9%)

Share Price (C$) $21.76 Market Cap ($M) $2,219 Total Debt $1,593 P / LTM E 60.2x P / NTM E 17.9x EV / LTM EBITDA 9.4x EV / NTM EBITDA 9.2x P / B 0.9x ROE 2.0% Dividend Yield 6.3% Debt Rating BBB- Beta 0.46

Recent Events Performance Since Purchase

Investment Outlook Valuation

$0 $15 $30 $45 $60

LTM P/E

LTM EV/EBITDA

DCF - EM

DCF - Perpetual

52 - Week Range

National Bank (TSX:NA)

Market Statistics Recent Events Performance Since Inception

Return Profile Valuation Investment Outlook

May 2015: Q2 results reported beat on EPS of $1.15 vs. $1.12 est.

Alliance with GS Asset Management provides customers more investment options

Investment Thesis Expansion outside of Quebec

and Eastern Canada focused

Investment Risks Reliant on capital markets


Hold Hold

$55.00

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15NA Financials TSX

$20 $40 $60 $80

DDM

Forward PEG

LTM P/Book

NTM P/E

LTM P/E


Share Price (C$) $45.51 Market Cap ($M) $15,001 P / LTM E 10.2x P / NTM E 9.5x EV / LTM EBITDA Nmf EV / NTM EBITDA Nmf P / B 1.7x ROE 15.8% Dividend Yield 4.6% Beta 0.72 PEG 1.12 Tier 1 Capital 12.4% NPL % of Total Loans 0.4%



5% VaR (8.5%) 10% VaR (5.0%)

Scotiabank (TSX:BNS)

Market Statistics Recent Events Performance Since Inception


May 2015: Q2 results reported beat on EPS of $1.43 vs. $1.39 est.

NIMs up 10 b.p. QoQ, 12 b.p. YoY

Puerto Rican Governor Garcia Padilla admits $70b of debt not payable

Investment Thesis International exposure,

potentially “higher growth”

Investment Risks Restructuring Puerto Rico debt crisis


Hold Hold

$72.00

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14BNS Financials TSX

$40 $60 $80 $100

DDM

NTM P/E

LTM P/BV

NTM PEG


Share Price (C$) $63.72 Market Cap ($M) $77,100 P / LTM E 11.1x P / NTM E 10.8x EV / LTM EBITDA nmf EV / NTM EBITDA nmf P / B 1.7x ROE 14.9% Dividend Yield 4.3% Beta 0.84 PEG 1.11 Tier 1 Capital 12.7% NPL % of Total Loans 1.0%



5% VaR (7.1%) 10% VaR (5.3%)

Market Statistics Recent Events 1 Year Share Performance


Q2 results announcement at end of July

Sluggish economy creating possibility of another rate cut

C.D. Howe Institute criticizes Canada to create a housing meltdown reserve

Investment Thesis CMHC tapering Premium increases

Investment Risks Canadian housing crash Regulatory environment


Hold Hold

$37.00

Genworth Canada (TSX:MIC)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-1MIC Financials TSX

$20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

DDM

NTM P/E

LTM P/B

Historic P/E

Historic P/B


Share Price (C$) $31.35 Market Cap ($M) $2,876 P / LTM E 7.7x P / NTM E 8.5x EV / LTM EBITDA nmf EV / NTM EBITDA nmf P / B 0.9x ROE 11.8% Dividend Yield 5.0% Beta 0.71 PEG 2.83 MCT Ratio 233% Delinquency Rate 0.1%


Return - Inception 5.0% Return - TTM N/A Return - YTD N/A

5% VaR (8.9%) 10% VaR (7.0%)

Cogeco Cable Inc. (TSX:CCA)

Valuation Metrics Investment Drivers Performance Since Inception

Portfolio Data Valuation Recommendation Stock Rec. Portfolio Rec. Intrinsic Value

Hold Hold

$73.00

Investment Thesis Growth in high speed

internet offering to business Focus on the triple play Growth of enterprise data

services segment as businesses outsource computing needs (IaaS)

Investment Risks IPTV and other OTT

services (Hulu)

20% growth in American cable and 5% growth in enterprise data segments

No growth in Canadian cable segment, 2% decline factored in valuation for upcoming quarters

Estimates correspond with management’s forecast

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15

CCA Telecommunications Services S&P/TSX

Share Price (C$) $72.00Market Cap ($M) $3,525EV ($M) $6,381P / LTM E 14.6xP / NTM E 13.3xEV / LTM EBITDA 6.9xEV / NTM EBITDA 6.6xP / B 2.1xROE 15.5%Dividend Yield 1.9%D / E 0.8110-Year Beta 0.77

40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

DCF - EM

DCF - PG

Comp. EV/EBITDA

52W Range

Current Price Intrinsic Value

Quarterly EPS: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42014A 1.24 0.73 1.31 1.162015E 1.21a 1.31a 1.19e 1.18e

Original Purchase Date 12/04/13Purchase Price (C$) $53.11Current Price (C$) $72.00Shares Owned 150Market Value $10,800

Return - Inception 38.6%Return - TTM 18.7%Return - YTD 1.5%

5% VaR (11.2%)10% VaR (9.4%)

Documents

Advisory Board Presentation (Spring 2015)€¦ · Advisory Board Presentation (Spring 2015) July 28, 2015 . Agenda Fund Overview ... Thanoozan Thangaraja, Valay Shah, Taha Shayeq,