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ADVANCES IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
David Arditi, PhD
Professor and Director
Construction Engineering and Management Program
Illinois Institute of Technology
Chicago, IL 60616, USA
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Private accredited university
Located close to downtown Chicago
Approximately 8,000 students
Four campuses
Engineering, architecture, design, sciences, business, and law
Construction Engineering and Management Program Located within the CAEE Department
Established in 1981
Well recognized nationally and internationally
Illinois Institute of Technology
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Challenges in Construction Project Management Research
Construction Project Management Research at IIT Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction management
Contents
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Advanced Critical Path diagrams and computational analysis tools to find the longest path through a network Parametric linear programming algorithms
Ford & Fulkerson’s algorithm
Min
Challenges in Construction Project Management Research
Historical Perspective - 1955-1975
)XCk(Z ijijijj,i
ijj,i
CONSTRAINTS
Xij ≤ Dij All activities
Xij ≥ dij All activities
λX ij1path
λX ijipath
All paths
λX ijnpath
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Simulation and optimization of construction processes Queuing theory
Simulation models
Challenges in Construction Project Management Research
Historical Perspective - 1955-1975
1s
0n
sn0
1!s
s
!n
s
1P
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Modeling and optimizing bidding processes
Computerized Critical Path calculations
Improving construction safety
Studies about worker motivation
Challenges in Construction Project Management Research
Historical Perspective - 1955-1975
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Assessing risk allocation in construction contracts
Investigations in innovation, management science,
organizational theory, and strategic planning
Attempts to combine computerized design tools,
database design and management, and artificial
intelligence applications
Development of intelligent tools to visualize construction
scheduling and control
Development of expert system prototypes
Use of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks
in solving construction management problems
Challenges in CEM Research
Historical Perspective - 1975-1990
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Development of web-based systems to enhance cost,
time, quality, safety, and organizational performance
Use of sensors and sensor networks (e.g., RFID) to
achieve automation and optimization in construction
processes
Visual modeling of building systems (3D), development
of 4D/5D systems to manage schedule and cost
Challenges in CEM Research
Historical Perspective - 1990-2010
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
International construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Synchronized Visualization of Construction Operations and
the Work Schedule
4D/5D CAD systems
PMS-GIS
4D/5D Video systems
PHOTO-NET
PHOTO-NET I
PHOTO-NET II
Automatic progress control
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Dynamic Scheduling Systems
4D CAD Systems
Koo and Fischer
Bentley Schedule Simulator by Jacobus Technology
SmartPlant Review by Telegraph
Balfour Technologies’ FourDviz technology
Visual Project Scheduler (VPS)
Common Point 4D (CP4D) by CIFE/Stanford U
Kamat and Martinez
Retik and Shapira
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
4D CAD Systems
After 1987 (3D drawing + work schedule)
Involves analysis of the work at planning and design
stages, and analysis of the project in the post-
completion stage (forensic analysis)
Impossible to update work program in a synchronized
way with construction operations
Only objective: visualization, not management
Single level of detail
Impossible to monitor parameters like cost and safety
No web-based applications
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
PEOPLE
STREETS
BUILDINGS
SOILS
UTILITIES
NUMERIC
STRING
DATE
THEMES/ GEOGRAPHIC DATA FILES DATABASE FILES
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Project Monitoring System with Geographical Information
Systems - PMS-GIS
Architectural design done using AutoCAD
Project broken down into activities
Work schedule done using P3 Primavera
AutoCAD files transferred to ArcView
Activity themes created in ArcView
Database established in ArcView
Percent complete information input
3D drawings created in ArcView
3D drawings and P3 work schedule synchronized
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Advantages of PMS-GIS
Decision-making in the construction phase (not only
visualization purposes)
Observing progress in individual activities as well as in
smaller work packages
Updating the work schedule easily as long as the
scheduler is familiar with ArcView
Seamless operation of ArcView, P3 and AutoCAD
Monitoring of cost, safety, materials, labor resources,
equipment, etc. through a database
Web-based system possible
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
4D Video System – PHOTO-NET
Project broken down into activities
Work schedule done using P3 Primavera
Events on construction site recorded by camera system
using time-lapse photography
Time-lapse movie and P3 work schedule synchronized
Percent complete information input
Synchronized time-lapse output of movie and work
schedule
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Dynamic Scheduling Systems
PMS-GIS
PHOTO-NET Automatic progress control
Video Operations
NTSC Standards: 30 frames/second
PMS-GIS
Problems of filming with NTSC standards
Playing time = Filming time
Electronic storage
In the time-lapse system, filming speed is lowered
but playing speed remains 30 frames/second
After experimentation, the optimum filming speed
was determined to be 1 frame/second
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
PHOTO-NET II AND III – Second and Third Generations
Use more than one camera
Use advanced digital cameras
Transfer data through wireless Internet connection
Allows remote control of the cameras
Calculate optimum filming rate (frame/second)
automatically based on hard disk capacity and
project duration
Produce printed reports (bar charts, cost curves,
etc.)
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Advantages of PHOTO-NET II
The project manager is able to monitor construction
progress relative to as-planned schedule on a day-
by-day basis
Higher management is able to monitor project
progress through the cameras
Probable disagreements between owner and
contractor are prevented
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
http://www.remontech.com/what-we-do/dynamic-scheduling/
http://remontech.com/tutorial1.swf
Automatic
Progress Control
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
3D/4D model
Point cloud data
Registration
Object definition
Progress
measurement
Dynamic Scheduling Systems
PMS-GIS
PHOTO-NET Automatic progress control
Camera shots, point cloud model, 3D model, and progress
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
3D model
Progress
Progress on Day 3
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Components Interpretation
Column A 100% completed
Column B Partially completed, 40%
Column C 0% completed
Column D 100% completed
Progress measured by using the system
corresponds to observed actual progress
Conclusion – Dynamic Scheduling Systems
Bar charts and CPM schedules do not convey the
spatial aspects of the planning information
4D-CAD systems developed so far have limitations
PCS-GIS and PHOTO-NET compare favorably to
existing systems
Automatic progress control improves productivity
Being able to visualize project activities and the
work schedule in a synchronized way improves
project controls and minimizes disagreements
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Arditi, D. (2008). “Innovative 4D Management of Construction Projects.” Proceedings
of the 5th International Conference on Innovation in Architecture, Engineering and
Construction, Antalya, Turkey.
Poku, S. and Arditi, D. (2006). “Construction Scheduling and Progress Control Using
Geographical Information Systems.” Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE,
20(5), 351-360.
Abeid, J., Allouche, E., Arditi, D. and Hayman, M. (2003). “PHOTO-NET II: A Computer
Based Monitoring System Applied to Project Management.” Automation in Construction,
12(5), 603-616.
Abeid, J. and Arditi, D. (2003). “PHOTO-NET: An Integrated System for Controlling
Construction Progress.” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management,
10(3), 162-171.
Abeid Neto, J. and Arditi, D. (2002). “Time-Lapse Digital Photography Applied to
Project Management.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,
128(6), 530-535.
Abeid, J. and Arditi, D. (2002). “Linking Time-Lapse Digital Photography and Dynamic
Scheduling of Construction Operations.” Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering,
ASCE, 16(4), 269-279.
Abeid Neto, J. and Arditi, D. (2002). “Using Colors to Detect Structural Components in
Digital Pictures.” Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 17(1), 61-67.
Arditi, D. and Robinson M.A. (1995). “Concurrent Delays in Construction Litigation.”
Cost Engineering, AACE, 37(7), 20-31.
References
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
Minority firms in construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Observations in the Construction Industry
The construction business is risky
Few construction contracts are completed
without disagreements
Disputes are resolved at different forums
A dispute-free environment is most desirable
Prevention of Disputes
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Observations
Risky business Disagreements between parties
Diverse dispute resolution methods
No dispute desired
A dispute-free environment is most desirable
A prediction is a claim that a particular event will occur in
the future
A prediction is not an informed guess or an opinion
Prediction is not prophecy (astrology, numerology,
fortune telling, etc.)
Prediction
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Niels Bohr stated:
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the
future."
Mathematical and computer models are frequently used
to both describe the behavior of something, and
predict its future behavior
Analysis of court data -1994
Artificial neural networks (ANN) -1998
Case based reasoning (CBR) - 1999
Boosted decision trees (BDT) - 2005
Ant colony system (Ant Miner) - 2007
Universal Prediction Model (UPM) – 2009-2010
Computerized information acquisition – 2011-2012----
IIT Research on Predicting the Outcome of Litigation
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Claim
Settlement
Circuit Court
Acceptable
Appellate Court
Decision
Decision
Acceptable
Supreme Court
Decision
Acceptable
Affirmed or Reversed
Affirmed or Reversed
ENDYes
END
END
Yes
Yes
ENDYes
No
No
No
END No
Remanded
Remanded
Illinois
Court
System
Inspired by the structure of
biological systems
Artificial neurons used to develop
an artificial neural net
Nets with numerous
interconnections among different
neurons
Capable of carrying out parallel
computations for different tasks,
including prediction
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Analysis - 1994
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
45 input elements
1 output element
102-case data set
12-case test set
Brainmaker (back propagation)
Experimentation with variations of the data, the
cases, and the parameters of the program
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Study
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Defining feature names and
input types
Deciding training
parameters
Training
and
testing
Different
combinations of
parameters
exhausted
Solution
Unsuccessful
Successful No
Yes
Methodology of
the ANN study
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Prediction rate: 67%
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Problem-solving paradigm that
utilizes the specific knowledge of
previously experienced cases
Mimics human reasoning
Makes use of a cyclic process of
retrieving past experiences,
reusing, revising and retaining
them
Case Based Reasoning (CBR)
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Analysis - 1994
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
43 input elements
1 output element
102-case data set
12-case test set
Esteem
Experimentation with similarity assessment
methods
Case Based Reasoning (CBR) Study
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Definition and Objectives
for the CBR Problem
Defining Feature Names (All
Features and Restricted
Features)
Deciding
Feature Values
Inputting the Cases
into Case Base
Deciding Similarity
Assessment Method
Retrieving Cases and
Generating Similarity
Scores
CASE-BASE
Inputting the
Target Cases
Calculation
Methods for
Selection
Adapting
Final Solution
Design Stage
Run Stage
Methodology of the CBR Study
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Decision trees are simple tools that can
Handle large amounts of complex information
Generate alternative decisions
Lay down the implications of these decisions
Decision Trees
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Boosting
Boosting refers to a method that “boosts” a weak
learning algorithm into a strong learning algorithm
It produces an accurate prediction rule by combining
rough and moderately inaccurate rules of thumb
Analysis - 1994
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
40 input elements
1 output element
102+12+18=132 cases in data set
See 5
Experimentation with data and test sets, and with
boosting trials
Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) Study
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Ant colony optimization is part of Swarm Intelligence
that is based on the collective behavior of
decentralized, self-organized systems
Real ants lay down pheromones directing each other
to resources while exploring their environment
Ant Colony Systems
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Analysis
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
Artificial ants mimic the behavior
of real ants.
The use of ant colony
optimization as a classification
system (Ant Miner) is rather new
38 input elements
1 output element
102+12+18+19=151 cases in data set
Ant Miner
Experimentation with data and test sets
Ant Colony Systems Study
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Ant Colony Systems Methodology
Classification
with Ant Miner
Data
Data
Consolidation
Attribute
Selection
Assessment
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Ant Colony Systems (Ant Miner)
Prediction rate: 92%
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Involves a large number of combinations of data
consolidation methods, attribute selection
methods, base classifiers, and meta learners
Involves a large number of experiments (brute-
force method)
Totally automated process in WEKA
Universal Prediction Model (UPM)
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Analysis
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
Knowledge Environments
Knowledge
Environment Authors Reference
WEKA
Ian H. Witten and Eibe Frank,
University of Waikato, New
Zealand
http://www.cs.waikato.
ac.nz/ml/weka/
Rapid Miner
(Formerly
known as
Yale)
Artificial Intelligence Unit of the
University of Dortmund,
Germany
http://sourceforge.net/
projects/Yale/
http://rapidminer.com
Tanagra Ricco Rakotomalala, Universite
Lyon 2, France
http://eric.univ-
lyon2.fr/~ricco/tanagra
/en/tanagra.html
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Universal Prediction Model (UPM)
Classification using
Hybrid systems
+
Hybrid Classifier System
Pre-Processing
Base
Learner
Enhancing
Algorithms Data
Data
Consolidation
Attribute
Selection
Assessment
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Universal Prediction Model (UPM) Test
Pre-processing and Attribute Selection
Development of Hybrid Systems
Data
Consolidation
6 datasets
6 Unsupervised
Attribute Filters
Original
Add Noise
Normalize
Remove Useless
Replace Missing
Values
Class Order
3 Meta Learners
Boosting
Bagging
Multi Boost AB
Attribute
Selection
12 combinations
3 Subset
Evaluation
Methods
Correlation-based
Classifier Subset
Consistency
Subset
4 Search Methods
Best First
Genetic Search
Greedy Stepwise
Rank Search
Total of
72
datasets
3 Ensemble methods
Grading
Stacking C
Vote
72 * (11*3) = 2,376 experiments
72 * [4+(4*3)] = 1,152 experiments
Total of
3,528 experiments
4 Base
Classifiers
J4.8 (C4.5)
REP Tree
J Rip
Part
11 Combinations
of Base
Classifiers
J4.8 (C4.5)
REP Tree
J Rip
Part
x
x
x =
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Universal Prediction Model (UPM)
Prediction rate: 96%
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Artificial Intelligence Machine Prediction Rate
Artificial Neural Networks 67%
Case Based Reasoning 83%
Boosted Decision Trees 90%
Ant Colony Systems 92%
Universal Prediction Model 96%
Comparison of Results
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Accuracy of prediction is dependent upon quality
of input data
The number of attributes should be
commensurate with the number of cases
Experimentation is essential in all AI applications
A large number of cases is required
UPM is the most versatile system that can be used
in any domain with confidence
Conclusion – Prevention of Disputes
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Text searching algorithms, software, open source
systems
Lucid Solr by Lucid Imagination
Fast by Microsoft
Seamark by Endeca
Dieselpoint Search
Autonomy
Computerized Information Acquisition
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Analysis
ANN -1998
CBR - 1999
BDT - 2005
Ant Miner - 2007
UPM - 2009-2010
Info acquisition - 2012
References
Arditi, D. and Pulket, T. (2010). “Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using an Integrated
Artificial Intelligence Model.” Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, 24(1), 73-80.
Pulket, T. and Arditi, D. (2009). “Universal Prediction Model for Construction Litigation.” Journal of Computing
in Civil Engineering, ASCE, 23(3), 178-187.
Arditi, D. and Pattanakitchamroon, T. (2009). “Analysis Methods in Time-Based Claims.” Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 134(4), 242-252.
Pulket, T. and Arditi, D. (2009). “Construction Litigation Prediction System Using Ant Colony Optimization.”
Construction Management and Economics, 27(3), 241-252.
Arditi, D. and Pattanakitchamroon, T. (2006). “Selecting a Delay Analysis Method in Resolving Construction
Claims.” International Journal of Project Management, 24(2), 145-155.
Arditi, D. (2006). “Artificial Intelligence in Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation.” Invited keynote
lecture, Proceedings of the Tenth East Asia-Pacific Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction,
Bangkok, Thailand.
Arditi, D. and Pulket, T. (2005). “Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using Boosted Decision
Trees.” Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, 19(4), 387-393.
Arditi, D. (2002). “Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation.” Invited keynote lecture, Proceedings of
the Fifth International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey.
Arditi, D. and Tokdemir, O.B. (1999). “Using Case Based Reasoning to Predict the Outcome of Construction
Litigation.” Journal of Computer Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 14(6), 385-393.
Arditi, D. and Tokdemir, O.B. (1999). “A Comparison of Case Based Reasoning and Artificial Neural
Networks.” Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, 13(3), 162-169.
Arditi, D., Oksay, F.E., and Tokdemir, O.B. (1998). “Predicting the Outcome of Construction Litigation Using
Neural Networks.” Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 13(2), 75-81.
Arditi, D., Tunca, A.A., and Yuyan, R. (1995). “Analysis of Construction Claims that Lead to Litigation.”
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Modern Project Management: Unification of Professionals for
Individual Success, INTERNET – International Project Management Association and SOVNET – Russian
Project Management Association, St. Petersburg, Russia, 14-16 September.
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
Minority firms in construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Managing the Risk of Contractor Default
The research literature focuses on company
success factors
Can we learn from company failures?
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Input/Output
Model
of Business
Failure/
Survival SYMPTOMS
Feedback
PERFORMANCE FACTORS
Insufficient profits 46.3%
Heavy operating expenses 32.8%
Burdensome institutional debt 10.3%
Inadequate sales 3.9%
Business conflicts 3.6%
Receivable difficulties 2.7%
Not competitive 0.5%
100.0%
FAILURE
ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS (39.3%)
Human, organizational and financial capital
Insufficient capital 47.2%
Lack of business knowledge 21.2%
Fraud 9.7%
Lack of managerial experience 5.4%
Family problems 5.1%
Lack of line experience 3.7%
Lack of commitment 3.4%
Poor working habits 3.4%
Overexpansion 0.8%
100.0%
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS (60.7%)
Macroeconomic and natural factors
Industry weakness 87.2%
Disaster 11.6%
Poor growth prospects 1.0%
High interest rates 0.2%
100.0%
DETERMINANTS
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Early Detection of Decline
Time
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
Early
detection
of decline
Successful
turnaround
and desired
performance
Undesirable
decline that
can lead to
failure
Time
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Transfer of Risk to Subcontractor
Bonding
Retainage
Insurance
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Conclusion – Risk of Contractor Default
Company failure is age dependent
There are liabilities of newness, adolescence and
smallness
Most causes of failure can be prevented by short-term
management action
It is possible to predict the state of decline by using
non-financial data
The owner can use intelligent/economic protection
against contractor default
Subcontractor default is an important part of the risk
equation
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
References
Arditi, D. (2009). “The Risk of Contractor Default.” Invited keynote lecture, Proceedings of
the Fifth Conference of Construction Industry in the Twenty First Century (CITC-V),
Istanbul, Turkey.
Arditi, D. and Chotibhongs, R. (2005). “Issues in Subcontracting Practice.” Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 131(8), 866-876.
Al-Sobiei, O. S., Arditi, D. and Polat, G. (2005). “Managing Owner’s Risk of Contractor
Default.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 131(9), 973-978.
Al-Sobiei, O.S., Arditi, D. and Polat, G. (2004). “Predicting the Risk of Contractor Default in
Saudi Arabia Utilizing ANN/GA Techniques.” Construction Management and Economics,
23(4), 423-430.
Köksal, A. and Arditi, D. (2004). “Predicting Construction Company Decline.” Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 130(6), 799-807.
Köksal A. and Arditi, D. (2004). “An Input Output Model for Business Failures in the
Construction Industry.” Journal of Construction Research, 5(1), 1-16.
Arditi, D., Köksal, A. and Kale, S. (2000). “Business Failures in the Construction Industry.”
Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, 7(2), 120-132.
Kale, S. and Arditi, D. (1999). “Age-Dependent Business Failures in the U.S. Construction
Industry.” Construction Management and Economics, 17(4), 493-503.
Kale, S. and Arditi, D. (1998). “Business Failures: Liabilities of Newness, Adolescence and
Smallness.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 124(6), 458-
464.
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
Minority firms in construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Bidding Practices from the Point of View of the Owner
Detection and prevention of unbalanced bids
Detection and prevention of collusive bids
Detection and prevention of claims games
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Detection and prevention of collusive bids
Formulation of regression model
Acquisition of data
all bids
108 contracts
awarded by a public agency
between 2001-2010
80 bidders
min 2, max 26, ave 5 bids per contract
t,it,i10
t,i9t8i7t6t5
i4t,i3t,i2t10t,i
)ECON(LN
)WON(LNDUR)AVERAGE(LNNOBID)RATIO(LN
)TOTAL(LNLMDISTLDIST)EST(LN)BID(LN
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Detection and prevention of collusive bids
Analysis of the data
The residual test (residuals must not be correlated)
The cost structure stability test (coefficients of the cost
structure model must be identical)
Analysis of the bid distributions (cartel bidders are expected
to bid higher than non-cartel bidders relative to the engineer’s
estimate)
Analysis of model dispersion (cartel bids are expected to be
more tightly concentrated than non-cartel bids)
Analysis of the differences in cost structures (the
independent variables are expected to affect the models of
cartel bidders and non-cartel bidders differently)
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Conclusion - Detection and prevention of collusive bids
Out of the 80 bidders it was found that 6 are likely to
have colluded with each other
Validation: Out of the 6 potential cartel bidders, 1 was
convicted of bidding irregularities, and 2 were
investigated by authorities.
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
References
Chotibhongs, R. and Arditi, D., Detection of Collusive Behavior, ASCE Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, accepted for publication.
Chotibhongs, R and Arditi, D., Analysis of Collusive Bidding Behavior,
Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 30, No. 3, March 2012, pp: 221-
231.
Arditi, D. and Chotibhongs, R., Detection and Prevention of Unbalanced Bids, Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 27, No. 8, August 2009, pp: 721-732.
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
Minority firms in construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Women in Construction
Women are underrepresented in the construction
industry Women in national workforce: 46%
Women in construction: 9.6%
There are many reasons why construction is
male dominated
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Management Development Questionnaire (MDQ)
Twenty competencies measured by eight
statements each: a total of 160 questions
Three rounds of electronic solicitation
1,400 project managers at random
(www.salesgenie.com)
63 responses received (32 from men and 31 from
women)
Methodology of the Study
Are female CMs less competent than male CMs?
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
Average STEN scores for Managerial Competencies
Women Men Initiative 5.71 5.16 0.236 Risk Taking 4.61 4.74 0.845 Innovation 5.65 5.13 0.442 Flexibility and adaptability 4.23 3.32 0.159
Analytical thinking 5.32 4.94 0.530 Decision making 4.90 4.65 0.548 Planning 4.94 4.81 0.648 Quality focus 5.35 5.06 0.420
Oral communication 5.52 5.39 0.484 Sensitivity 4.87 3.52 0.019* Relationships 5.10 5.00 0.866 Teamwork 4.58 3.61 0.096
Achievement 4.61 5.19 0.094 Costumer focus 4.23 3.23 0.015* Business awareness 5.52 5.48 0.900 Learning orientation 5.61 4.94 0.117
Authority and presence 6.16 5.03 0.004* Motivating others 4.90 4.71 0.743 Developing people 4.39 3.90 0.311 Resilience 3.77 3.84 0.820
Leadership
STEN scores
Managing change
Planning & organizing
Interpersonal skills
Result orientation
Global competencies Competencies p-Value
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
No statistically significant difference between men and
women in 17 managerial competencies
Women outperformed men in 3 managerial competencies
Sensitivity
Customer focus
Authority and presence
Conclusion – Women in Construction
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012
References
Kim, A. and Arditi, D., Performance of Minority Firms Providing Construction Management
Services in the U.S. Transportation Sector, Construction Management and Economics, Vol.
28, No. 8, August 2010, pp: 839-851.
Kim, A. and Arditi, D., Performance of MBE/DBE/WBE Construction Firms in Transportation
Projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 136, No. 7,
July 2010, pp: 768-777.
Arditi, D. and Balci G., Managerial Competencies of Female and Male Construction
Managers, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Vol. 135, No. 11,
November 2009, pp: 1275-1278.
Chun, B.L., Arditi D., Balci, G., Women in Construction Management, CMAA eJournal, June
2009.
Arditi, D. and Balci, G., Management Capabilities of Male and Female Managers in the
Construction Industry, Proceedings of the First Project and Construction Management
Congress, METU Cultural and Convention Center, Ankara, Turkey, September 29 –
October 1, 2010.
Arditi, D. and Balci, G., Managerial Competencies of Construction Managers. Proceedings
of the Fifth International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century (CITC-V), Istanbul,
Turkey, May 20-22, 2009.
CM Research at IIT
Dynamic scheduling
Dispute prevention
Risk of contractor default
Bidding practices
Women in construction
Repetitive scheduling
Quality management
Sustainable systems
Minority firms in construction
Contracting
Dynamics Congress – Istanbul, Turkey – April 2012