ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING,

BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDS

3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10)

3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS (NAHA '10)

University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal November 3-5, 2010

Published by WSEAS Press ISSN: 1792-6173 www.wseas.org ISSN: 1792-619X

ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDS 3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10) 3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS (NAHA '10) University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal November 3-5, 2010 Published by WSEAS Press www.wseas.org Copyright © 2010, by WSEAS Press All the copyright of the present book belongs to the World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society Press. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Editor of World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society Press. All papers of the present volume were peer reviewed by two independent reviewers. Acceptance was granted when both reviewers' recommendations were positive. See also: http://www.worldses.org/review/index.html

ISSN: 1792-6173 ISSN: 1792-619X ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING,

BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDS

3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10)

3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS (NAHA '10)

University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal November 3-5, 2010

Editors: Thomas Panagopoulos, University of Algarve, PORTUGAL International Program Committee Members: Joao Guerreiro, PORTUGAL Teresa Noronha, PORTUGAL Efigenio da Luz Rebelo, PORTUGAL Luis Chicharo, PORTUGAL Jon Bryan Burley, USA Tomas Boski, PORTUGAL Lea Orlovsky, ISRAEL Jose Beltrao, PORTUGAL Teresa Andresen, PORTUGAL Luis Ribeiro, PORTUGAL Rui Guerra, PORTUGAL Inga Straupe, LATVIA Dulce Antunes, PORTUGAL Maria de Belem Martins, PORTUGAL Maria Bostenaru, ROMANIA Felipa Lopes dos Reis, PORTUGAL Livia Madureira, PORTUGAL Nuno Pinto, PORTUGAL Carlos Guerrero, PORTUGAL Claudine Metral, SWITZERLAND Ioannis Tsalikidis, GREECE C. Helmis, GREECE F. Rigas, GREECE N. Afgan, PORTUGAL F. Akgun, TURKEY Omar Badran, JORDAN Y. Baudoin, BELGIUM A. Bitoleanu, ROMANIA L. Boch-Andersen, BELGIUM P. Casero, SPAIN E. Frey, GERMANY M. Heiermann, GERMANY A. E. Holdo, UK D. De Keukeleere, BELGIUM M. Versan Kok, TURKEY G. Kolb, DENMARK A. Kurbatskiy, RUSSIA S. Linderoth, DENMARK P. Lunghi, ITALY C. Machens, GERMANY A. Midilli, CANADA J. Van Mierlo, BELGIUM S. Ozdogan, TURKEY M. Reijalt, ITALY J. Rogut, POLAND I. V. Singh, INDIA E. Smole, AUSTRIA R. Tamme, GERMANY M. Teixeira, PORTUGAL R. Vigotti, ITALY G. Wolf, GERMANY G. Wisniewski, POLAND A. Van Zyl, BELGIUM Z. A. Vale, PORTUGAL

A. F. Zobaa, EGYPT Metin Demiralp, TURKEY Valeri Mladenov, BULGARIA Zoran Bojkovic, SERBIA Leon Trilling, USA D. Perkins, USA Dionysios (Dion) D. Dionysiou, USA Leonid Perlovsky, USA Kent Davey, USA David Landgrebe, USA Steven H. Collicott, USA Marco Ceccarelli, ITALY John W. Lund, USA Dimitris Bertsekas, USA David Staelin, USA A. Bers, MUSA Leon Trilling, USA Lotfi Zadeh, USA Leon Chua, USA Brian A. Barsky, USA Leonid Kazovsky, USA Rao Kamissety, USA Stamatios Kartalopoulos, USA

Preface This year the 3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10) and the 3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS (NAHA '10) were held at the University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal, November 3-5, 2010. The conferences remain faithful to their original idea of providing a platform to discuss climate change factors, variations within the earth's climate, non-climate factors driving climate change, human influences on climate change, monitoring the current status of climate, simulation of climate change, climate change and biodiversity, dynamics and stability of ecosystems, natural hazards, crops & drought, conditions that help the spread of vector-borne diseases etc. with participants from all over the world, both from academia and from industry.

Their success is reflected in the papers received, with participants coming from several countries, allowing a real multinational multicultural exchange of experiences and ideas.

The accepted papers of these conferences are published in this Book that will be indexed by ISI. Please, check it: www.worldses.org/indexes as well as in the CD-ROM Proceedings. They will be also available in the E-Library of the WSEAS. The best papers will be also promoted in many Journals for further evaluation.

Conferences such as these can only succeed as a team effort, so the Editors want to thank the International Scientific Committee and the Reviewers for their excellent work in reviewing the papers as well as their invaluable input and advice.

The Editors

Table of Contents

Plenary Lecture 1: Effects of Global Climate Change on Development and Growth of Crops 11Jose Paulo de Melo-Abreu Plenary Lecture 2: The Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the Sector

12

Corina Carranca Landscape Science and Global Environmental Change 13Olav Slaymaker Climate Changes and Their Effects on the Vegetation Recovery in the Pre-Aral Region 19Zhanna V. Kuzmina, Sergey E. Treshkin Application of Helical and Energetic Characteristics of the Velocity Field to Predict and Evaluate Tropical Cyclones’ Formation and Development

25

Ekaterina Glebova Visual Appearance of Turfgrass under Different Water Regimes 30Manuel Costa, Jose Beltrao, Joao Carrasco De Brito, Carlos Guerrero Salt Removing Crops in Arid Climates 36Gulom Bekmirzaev, Mukhamadkhan Khamidov, Jose Beltrao, Maria Alcinda Neves Vegetation Changes in the Pine Forests of the Nature Park Tervete, Latvia 42Inga Straupe, Vija Kreile The Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for the Sector

48

Corina Carranca The Agro-Forestry Farms’ Socioeconomic Characterization for a Forest Fire Prevention and Management Model

57

Antonio Xavier, Maria De Belem Martins The Zonal Interpolation Of Socioeconomic Statistics: An Application of a Dasymetric Mapping Methodology to the Region of Algarve

64

Antonio Xavier, Maria De Belem Martins The Climate and History of Algarve – Interactions 70Manuel Costa Linear Infrastructures in Complex Landscapes: The Case of A22 Highway, Portugal 76Elena Berte, Thomas Panagopoulos Lava Flows Impact Prediction at Mount Etna by Cellular Automata 85Valeria Lupiano, Rocco Rongo, Maria Vittoria Avolio, William Spataro

Seasonal Fluctuations of the Fine Fraction of PM1.0 in Urban Conglomerations 91Josef Navratil, Vladimir Adamec, Alena Bumbova, Alena Langerova, Lenka Jesonkova Changes in the Structure of Zooplankton Communities in the Freshwater Ecosystems in Latvia over the Last Five Decades

96

Arturs Skute, Rasma Deksne, Jana Paidere, Natalja Skute, Aija Brakovska Technology for Decision Support during Biological Incidents Responses 101Tereza Otcenaskova, Vladimir Bures, Pavel Cech, Karel Antos The Effect of PAM (Polyacrilamid) on Wind Blown Sand Abrasion Injury and Production of Vegetables

105

Jiftah Ben-Asher, Arthur Genis, Leonid Vulfson Soil Erodibility Assessment at the Alqueva Dam Watershed, Portugal 112Vera Ferreira, Thomas Panagopoulos Carob-Tree as CO2 Sink in the Carbon Market 119Daniel Geraldo, Pedro Jose Correia, Jose Filipe, Luis Nunes Formation of Agreements on Climate Change: The Impact of Uncertainty 124Michael Finus, Pedro Pintassilgo Authors Index 130

Plenary Lecture 1

Effects of Global Climate Change on Development and Growth of Crops

Professor Jose Paulo de Melo-Abreu Instituto Superior de Agronomia

Technical University of Lisbon (TULisbon) Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal

Abstract: The increase of emissions of green house gases is changing the global climate. In most areas of the world, temperature will go on increasing, rainfall patterns will be distorted, absolute humidity will rise, and extreme weather events will be likely more frequent and severe. However, the projections that have been published show that the climates of the various geographical areas are affected differently. In general, as far as crop performance is concerned, lower latitudes get the most pernicious effects and higher latitudes tend to have little or no crop loss. Increased carbon dioxide concentration and some of the changes on weather elements will influence crop development and growth in a simple way, but other repercussions are more difficult to grasp. Increased carbon dioxide concentration in the air augments photosynthetic rate, mainly of C3 plants. Air temperature increases favour plant development and growth under colder conditions, but may reduce plant performance in warmer areas. Higher temperatures may favour the development of pests and diseases. Increases in winter temperature may lead to inadaptation of crops, mainly deciduous tree crops, that require chilling before new leaves and flowers are formed. Increases in summer temperature may lead to heat stress of some crops or varieties. Concentration of rainfall, that is likely to occur in many areas, will alter the soil water balance. These changes may occur seasonally or throughout the year, but they will mean less water available for crops and natural vegetation. This means that water availability for crop production is likely to decrease in many areas where irrigation is necessary and rainfed production is already vulnerable to natural climate variability. It may therefore result in the need for changing crop patterns or to adopt different crop varieties, and to use different cropping techniques, including changes in planting dates. This presentation undergoes a comprehensive discussion of all these aspects, taking a quantitative perspective, that includes the exhibition of results of simulations, under different scenarios. Brief Biography of the Speaker: Professor Jose Paulo Mourao de Melo e Abreu is Associate Professor w/ Habilitation in the Instituto Superior de Agronomia, The Technical University of Lisbon, and has undertaken researched in the areas of Global Change, Agrometeorology and Modelling in Horticulture and Agriculture. Published about eighty publications, including two FAO books, and delivered about fifty invited talks in Portugal and abroad. Developed twelve models. He is the national representative of Portugal in the European Society for Agronomy, is a referee of about twenty international journals and has organized three international meetings. Has been responsible for six research projects, including two international, and cooperated in many others.

Plenary Lecture 2

The Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the Sector

Mrs. Corina Carranca Researcher

INRB, I.P/INIA Quinta do Marques, Av. Republica, Nova Oeiras

2784-505 Oeiras, Portugal E-mail: corina.carranca@inrb.pt

Abstract: Agriculture in Portugal contributes for less than 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, where 34% comes from methane (CH4) from animal husbandry, 64% comes from nitrogen (N) oxides (NOx and N2O) by the intensive use of mineral fertilizers, the incomplete nitrification and denitrification processes, the waterlogged rice fields, the addition of organic compounds to the soil, the drip fertigation, the N2 fixation by legumes, particularly, the pastures, and the sediments, by the alternate wetting and drying processes and the presence of soil organisms such as worms. Animal husbandry is the main responsible (71%) for total emission coming from agriculture, particularly the dairy cows housed. Methane emissions from animal housing are mainly caused by enteric fermentation. During storage and after spreading of farmyard manure in the soil substantial differences concerning ammonia (NH3), N2O and CH4 emissions occur with composted and anaerobically stacked farmyard manure. The compost can emit more NH3 than the anaerobically stacked farmyard manure. Ammonia is also released during the industrial production of mineral fertilizers and from senescent leaves. In agriculture, forests are the main responsible for CO2 emission (4 Mt CO2 equivalent year-1) by the respiration process, and the double amount can be reached in presence of fires. However, forests have an important role on CO2 capture during the photosynthetic process, by C accumulation in the plant biomass and soil organic matter. The Portuguese forest can sequester about 80 t CO2 ha-1 year-1 and contributed to about 18% of C sequestration in 2010. The eucalyptus has a very efficient capacity to use water and nutrients and can accumulate C in the biomass and soil more efficiently than other plant species in temperate climate. Microbial activity is also responsible for CO2 emission, particularly under soil disturbance. This is the case of pastures conversion to annual crops. On the other hand, if soil conservation practices have been used, such as for permanent pastures, CO2 sequestration in the soil is appreciable. "Montado" is a Portuguese extensive farming system consisting of cork and holm-oak trees, several shrubs and biodiverse pastures. This is a very sustainable agricultural system where the biodiverse pasture consists of more than 20 species and include several legumes. They can sequester more than 4 t C ha-1 year-1, particularly in the soil since the crops are used for animal feeding (-4.5 t C km-2 year-1). Supposing an increase from 10 to 30 g organic matter kg-1 soil, an accumulation of 33 t C ha-1 in a 15 cm layer is expected, corresponding to a sequestration of the order of 128 t CO2 ha-1. These data show that 200,000 ha of permanent pastures will largely meet the Kyoto Protocol Commitment (1997). About 80% of cultivated plants can be associated with mycorrhizal soil fungi. This symbiosis allows a better performance and health for most efficiently mycorrhized plants, particularly under biotic and abiotic stress, such as drought, high temperatures, saline soil and contaminants. These plants can capture more CO2 from the atmosphere by the photosynthetic process, producing higher levels of photo assimilates which are exuded by the roots enriching the mycorrhizosphere and contributing for C sequestration. Brief Biography of the Speaker: Corina Carranca is a Researcher at INRB, I.P./INIA, at Oeiras (Portugal). She is a specialist in nitrogen cycling, namely nitrogen dynamics in soils and plant nutrition. She published ninety eight publications, including ten book chapters and thirty-three publications in national and international peer-review journals. She was a national representative of Portugal in the European Union for the Directive for Soil Conservation and Protection. She has been a referee of sixteen national and international journals and books and was included in two Editorial Boards of two international journals. She has been responsible for fifteen national research projects and cooperated in many others.