Advanced Power Strips IR-Sensing, Home Entertainment

Provisional UES

Josh RushtonResearch and Evaluation Subcommittee

September 22, 2015

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Main Goal for Today

Seeking RTF decision on moving Residential Advanced Power Strips: IR-Sensing, Home Entertainment from Planning to Provisional.• RTF Research Plan: Based on ETO metering study– Is planned research sufficient for evaluating savings and

moving the measure closer to Proven?– Are important research limitations clearly noted in the

Research Plan?

• Savings and Cost: No changes since August• Other APS applications to remain Planning

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Measure OverviewSector: ResidentialMeasure name: Advanced Power StripsApplications: • Home entertainment (AV), load-sensing

• Home entertainment (AV), IR-sensing • Home office, load-sensing • Home office, motion-sensing • Home office, PC interaction-sensing

Installation: APS must be installed to control power to television, TV remote must use IR signals.

Delivery channel: Any (UES value refers to properly installed APS)

Category: Provisional (formerly Planning)Status: ActiveBaseline: Pre-conditionsSunset Date: 08/31/2016 (formerly 08/31/2018)Annual Savings: 216 kWh (for properly installed APS)Measure life: 5 yearsB/C Ratio: 2.5 (direct-install), 3.0 (customer-install)

This one!

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Measure Description

• IR-sensing APS for Home entertainment– IR sensor monitors remote-control signals; – After 1-2 hour period of inactivity, APS powers down controlled

devices (user has chance to over-ride)– Typical controlled devices include TV, DVD player, and IR-controlled

stereo equipment• APS units have “stereo mode” to disable control function for several hours • Controlled devices should not include set-top box, cable modem, DVR,

some game consoles

– Not appropriate for use with devices that have radio-frequency remote controls

• Most savings comes from turning off TV when no one’s watching (based on what’s known so far)

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RTF Research Plan: R&E Review

Research and Evaluation, September 3, 2015.• Participants:

Jennifer Anziano, RTF Mike Bailey, ETOJosh Rushton, RTF CAT Lucinda Gilman, CLEAResultCharlie Grist, Council Mark Jerome, CLEAResultChristopher Frye, NEEA Brad Acker, U. Idaho IDLTodd Blackman, Franklin PUD Jim Perich-Anderson, PSEDan Rubado, ETO Rachel Clark, TacomaAndie Baker, Abacus Research Jennifer Finnegan, SnohomishMark Johnson, Bonneville Jim White, Chelan County PUD

• Based on the planned research, R&E subcommittee recommends moving this APS application to the Provisional category– Research is sufficient for evaluating savings

– Research is likely to move measure closer to proven

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RTF Research Plan: Overview

• Focus: How research products are expected to inform the RTF measure

• Objective: Reliably estimate average annual savings for properly-installed IR-sensing APS– For Provisional measure, rates of “proper installation” estimated

through Delivery Verification – RTF may bake these rates into Proven UES values later– More on this later…

• Heavy lifting: Data collection and analysis funded by ETO, conducted by CLEAResult– Details in Metering Plan and Data Collection Forms– RTF may modify final analysis to suit our needs

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RTF Research Plan: ETO Study• Sites recruited from past Energy Saver Kit recipients• Meter data for 70 Embertec and 70 Tricklestar APS units (usable sample

size will be smaller)– Half of sites metered pre/post, half post/pre – Metering is 4 weeks pre, plus 4 weeks post– WattsUp meters

• 15-minute interval data to permit balancing pre/post day types• Power-strip-level data (aggregate kWh of connected equipment)

• Field technicians survey device configuration, occupancy, viewing habits at each visit– Try to detect major viewing events, changes from pre to post

• Average annual savings– First, estimate site-level daily savings as observed change in average daily kWh:

[mean daily kWh (pre) ‒ mean daily kWh (post)]– Final savings estimate is 365 times mean of the site-level daily savings estimates

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Installation Rates• UES value refers to properly-installed IR-sensing APS units

– Installation rate estimated through delivery verification• Was unit installed properly to begin with? • Is the unit still in place six months later? • DV guidance: “Determine whether APS is properly installed… Verification should

occur 3 to 9 months after customer receives the APS”

– Installation rate affects first-year savings– Removals that occur at least six months after delivery are accounted for

in measure life, don’t affect first-year savings • RTF may opt to publish UES values with installation rates “baked-

in” for some program designs– Staff recommends looking into this when we bring back proposal for a

Proven UES next summer– Known sources include survey data from SnoPUD, PSE, and ETO (study

referenced above, plus a separate leave-behind study).

RTF Research Plan: Limitations

The R&E subcommittee identified specific limitations in the mapping from expected research products to the RTF measure workbook.

Limitations related to installation rate and/or measure life: • Research does not seek to estimate installation rates. Installation rates accounted

for through delivery verification. CLEAResult will note whether proper installation persists through the study period, and will ask participants whether they plan to continue using the APS. This data, and other sources, may lead to RTF-approved installation rates in future.

• Research does not seek to estimate measure life. This will remain an RTF judgment call.

• Timing affects whether APS removal counts against first-year savings. DV guidance suggests programs estimate installation rates that reflect conditions six to nine months after customer receives the APS.

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RTF Research Plan: Limitations

The R&E subcommittee identified specific limitations in the mapping from expected research products to the RTF measure workbook.

Limitations related to first-year savings: • Sample bias towards homes with at-home adult. Partially addressed by relatively

generous participation reward ($75 and a free APS).

• Study will not be able to discern age-related effects (e.g., small children or retirees).

• Metering in fall will not capture full range of seasonal effects. Study planners chose the fall period in hopes that it would reflect “shoulder” viewing patterns, somewhere between what prevails in summer and winter.

• Presence of a field technician may influence installation configurations. Technicians will provide instructions similar to those provided in the APS installation materials. These instructions are not very complicated. The critical element is that the television must be controlled by the APS, and failures in this regard count against the installation rate.

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Proposed Motion

“ I, _________, move that for the Residential Advanced Power Strips IR-Sensing Application, the RTF:

• Approve the measure and RTF Research Plan as presented;

• Change measure category from Planning to Provisional;

• Retain Active status;

• Set the sunset date to August 31, 2016.”

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Additional Slides

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Planning vs Provisional

Planning• Sponsors not yet identified (or

specific, funded research plan not yet written)

• RTF develops a Research Strategy• RTF approval means RTF:

• Agrees with research goals• Believes proposed method of data

collection and analysis provides a reasonable path forward

• Acknowledges that sponsors might alter research design

• Evaluation: Treated as Other UES (i.e. RTF UES estimate not used)

Provisional• Sponsors identified (a specific, funded

research plan has been written)• RTF develops an RTF Research Plan• RTF approval means RTF:

• Agrees RTF Research Plan meets some or all of the research goals

• Agrees Plan captures potential limitations for advancing measure

• Anticipates research results will be sufficient for evaluating savings

• Evaluation: Evaluated savings to be based on research results, as available (or treated as Other UES)

RTF Decision: Approval to “Planning” Category

RTF Decision: Approval to

“Provisional” Category

RTF Decision: Approval to

“Proven” Category

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August, 2015

September, 2015That’s today!

Around mid-2016

ETO Research: Metering

Sites metered 4 weeks with ordinary power strip (“pre”) and 4 weeks with APS (“post”) • Pre-post metering for half (35 Embertec and 35

TrickleStar), post-pre metering for other half;• Watts-Up meters to record at 1-minute intervals – No time stamps

• Field technician to record install and removal times • Power outages can throw off timing

– May help balance week-end and week-day counts between pre and post periods as needed

– Plan does not include any detailed time series analysis

15 - ETO Plan

ETO Research: Site Visits• At first visit, the technician…

– Directs participant on how to install initial power strip (APS or standard)– Installs power meter – Records time, configuration of connected devices, number of occupants, estimated

typical viewing hours• At second visit, the technician…

– Asks about changes to device configuration, occupancy, or viewing habits– Conducts APS User Survey if APS was installed at first visit– Directs participant on how to install second power strip (standard or APS)– Downloads meter data, resets meter, re-installs meter – Records time, configuration of connected devices, number of occupants, estimated

typical viewing hours• At third visit, the technician…

– Asks about changes to device configuration, occupancy, or viewing habits– Conducts APS User Survey if APS was installed at second visit– Downloads meter data, records the time, and removes the meter– Asks if participant intends to continue using the APS in the future

16 - ETO Plan

ETO Research: Analysis

• For each site, calculate average daily kWh, separately pre- and post– Try to balance number of weekend days and weekdays between the

site’s pre and post periods– Result is two numbers per site

• Average across sites to get sample-mean daily kWh pre and post– Result is two numbers for entire sample (or two numbers for

Embertec sample and two for TrickleStar sample)– Ratio of the two sample means estimates average percent reduction

in kWh– Difference in the two sample means estimates average absolute

reduction in daily kWh

17 - ETO Plan