AdvancedAnaly+cs:AkeyEnablerfortheEnergyTransi+on

COREEnergyDayLouvain-la-Neuve,April162018

OlivierDevolderHeadofEnergyGroup@N-SIDE

PhilippeChevalierCOREandN-SIDEPresident

AnalyAcs:awidegapbetweenacademiaandindustry

•  Academicresearch:– Developmentofadvancedalgorithms– Benchmarkingbasedonearlieracademicresults

•  Industrialprac+ce

– Vastmajorityofdatadrivendecisionstakenbasedspreadsheetmodels

– Lotsofbuzzwordswithnoclearimplementa+onpath

AdvancedAnaly+csinac+on

DESCRIPTIVEANALYTICS

PREDICTIVEANALYTICS

PRESCRIPTIVEANALYTICS

MakeBigDataaccessibleandmanageable

MakepredicAonssupportedbyArAficialIntelligenceTechniques

TakeOpAmaldata-drivendecisionssupportedbyopAmizaAonalgorithms

DATAECOSYSTEM

ImproveDataUnderstandingwithadvanceddashboards,KPIsandAnalysis

TheN-SIDEproject

•  Observa+on:– Manycompaniesdonotusestateofthearttechniquesinanaly+cs

–  Thereisnopartnertoefficientlytransferacademicknowledgeinthisareatoindustry

•  Goal:– Makestateoftheartinanaly+cseasilyavailabletoindustry

– Onceindustrialpartnersareusingstateofthearttechnology,createadirectlinkwithacademiatofosteradvancedresearchprojectsforfurtherprogress

N-SIDEcurrently

•  75employees–  30%holdaPhD–  10na+onali+es

•  Stronglocalacademic+es–  Spin-offcompanyofbothUCL&Ulg– Ac+vein4researchprojectoftheWallonregiontogetherwithuniversitylabs(fundingof10researchersin3universi+es)

•  Broadinterna+onalreach–  85%ofturnoveroutsideBelgium(>50%outsideEU)– Ac+vein3H2020researchprojects

5

6

Ac#veElectricityConsumersHowtomakethedemandmoreflexibleandtoadaptitbasedonavailableRESproduc;on?

DynamicImbalanceRiskManagementHowtomanagetheriskinadynamicwayandsecurethebalanceofthesystematany;me?

ElectricityMarketsIntegra#onHowtointegrateefficientlytheeuropeanelectricitymarketsandfosterimport/exportbetweencountries?

ThreeofthekeychallengesforasuccessfulEnergyTransi+on

Active Electricity Consumers

8

ElectricityProduc;oninGermanyMarch12-March182018

Electricitysectorisfacingarevolu+onwhereflexibilitybecomesakeyasset…

•  AlmostallGermanDemandhastobecoveredbyConven+onalPowerPlant

èHigherElectricityPrice

•  GermandemandismorethancoveredbyRenewable

èPeriodwithnega+veelectricitypriceandstrongexport

Electricitysectorisfacingarevolu+onwhereflexibilitybecomesakeyasset…

CombiningdifferentlayersofAdvancedAnaly+cstoenableflexibilityinindustrialsites

DAPriceForecast

ImbalancePriceForecast

EnergyProducAon

Forecasts

FlexibleProducAonProcessesModels

FlexibleCHPModels

FlexibleAuxiliaryProcessesModels

StorageModel

InvestmentOpAmizaAon

PlanningOpAmizaAon

NominaAonOpAmizaAon

Real-TimeOpAmizaAon

DA/ImbalanceSpreadForecast

Accurateforecasts Efficientmathema+calmodelling

Advancedop+miza+onalgorithms

=+ +

ENERTOP:CustomizedEnergyFlexibilityOp+miza+onPlahorm

CombiningdifferentlayersofAdvancedAnaly+cstoenableflexibilityinindustrialsites

DAPriceForecast

ImbalancePriceForecast

EnergyProducAon

Forecasts

FlexibleProducAonProcessesModels

FlexibleCHPModels

FlexibleAuxiliaryProcessesModels

StorageModel

InvestmentOpAmizaAon

PlanningOpAmizaAon

NominaAonOpAmizaAon

Real-TimeOpAmizaAon

DA/ImbalanceSpreadForecast

Accurateforecasts Efficientmathema+calmodelling

Advancedop+miza+onalgorithms

=+ +

ENERTOP:CustomizedEnergyFlexibilityOp+miza+onPlahorm

Predic+ngelectricitymarketprices:threemachinelearningchallenges

1.Day-AheadpricesresoluAon:onepriceperhourtarget:1dayto7dayinadvanceN-SIDEprecision:+-10%error

2.ImbalancepricesresoluAon:onepriceperquartertarget:1quarterto4quarterinadvanceN-SIDEprecision:+-25%error

3.ImbalanceversusDay-AheadresoluAon:oneprobabilityperhourtarget:1dayinadvanceN-SIDEprecision:+-40%error

DAreal

DAforecast

IMBreal

IMBforecast

DAreal

IMBreal

Probability(DA>Imb)forecast

CLASSIFICATIONPROBLEM

REGRESSIONPROBLEM

Structuringthe“intelligence”behindtheplahorm

13

Schedulerthatrunonaserver

CleanData

ForecastData

Model

DataHandler

Training-Valida+ng

Predic+ng

INTERFACE

Storage

RESTAPI

FeatureselecAon

XGB–DeepLearning

Django

PostgreSQL

x500inputs

CombiningdifferentlayersofAdvancedAnaly+cstoenableflexibilityinindustrialsites

DAPriceForecast

ImbalancePriceForecast

EnergyProducAon

Forecasts

FlexibleProducAonProcessesModels

FlexibleCHPModels

FlexibleAuxiliaryProcessesModels

StorageModel

InvestmentOpAmizaAon

PlanningOpAmizaAon

NominaAonOpAmizaAon

Real-TimeOpAmizaAon

DA/ImbalanceSpreadForecast

Accurateforecasts Efficientmathema+calmodelling

Advancedop+miza+onalgorithms

=+ +

ENERTOP:CustomizedEnergyFlexibilityOp+miza+onPlahorm

Mathema+calModelstorepresentindustrialprocessescomplexityandflexibility…

15

Electricityconsump+on

Blend

x%

y%

z%

Bounds

Yield

Steady

ShutdownStartup

Profile Ramping

…inanintegratedway

WoodChipsArrival Screening

Bleaching

PaperMachinePulpIntake

PulpStorageTanks

Conveyors

RefinersFirstSet

RefinersSecondSet

LB HB HB

KeyoperaAonstobeopAmized

•  On/OffState•  Minimal+meon/off•  Max.numberofstop

•  Tankcapacity•  Acceptablestocklevels

MinimisingCosts•  Energy•  Opera+ons•  Penal+es

•  RecipesHB/LB•  Maxcapacity•  Processing+me

Min/maxcapacity

CombiningdifferentlayersofAdvancedAnaly+cstoenableflexibilityinindustrialsites

DAPriceForecast

ImbalancePriceForecast

EnergyProducAon

Forecasts

FlexibleProducAonProcessesModels

FlexibleCHPModels

FlexibleAuxiliaryProcessesModels

StorageModel

InvestmentOpAmizaAon

PlanningOpAmizaAon

NominaAonOpAmizaAon

Real-TimeOpAmizaAon

DA/ImbalanceSpreadForecast

Accurateforecasts Efficientmathema+calmodelling

Advancedop+miza+onalgorithms

=+ +

ENERTOP:CustomizedEnergyFlexibilityOp+miza+onPlahorm

Efficientop+miza+onalgorithmstogenerateop+malflexibilitydecisions

18

AdvancedOp+miza+onAlgorithms

ü Accurateresultsü Fastrunning

ü RobustSoluAonü IntuiAvePlanning

Electricitypriceforecast

RiskFactorsforecast

Mathema+calmodeling

OpAmizedplanning

Efficientop+miza+onalgorithmstogenerateop+malflexibilitydecisions

19

AdvancedOp+miza+onAlgorithms

Electricitypriceforecast

RiskFactorsforecast

Mathema+calmodeling

OpAmizedplanning

•  MixedIntegerProgramming•  ConstraintProgramming•  Non-linearOp+miza+on•  Stochas+cOp+miza+on

ENERTOP@Fromflexibilitypoten+altorealsavings

AlignmentonObjec+vesLeverageEnergyflexibilityintheCTMPLinestoreduce

electricitycost

TrainingFinalusertraining

Userfriendlyandefficienttool

implementa+oninthedecisionprocessandITinfrastructure

Realis+cModelingGoodmatchbetweensoqwareandCTMPReality

-  Kickoffmee+ng-  Projectpresenta+on-  Communica+onofSAPPItoemployees

-  Collabora+onProcessEngineers/N-SIDEtodefineplantreali+es(Processset-up,constraints)

-  Processmodelingexper+seofN-SIDE-  Calibra+onbasedonhistoricaldata

-  Integrateduserinterfacerequirements-  Automateddataimporta+on-  Integrateddecisionprocess-  Integra+ontoexis+ngwayofworking

-  TrainingforallEnd-User-  Userguidedocumenta+on-  Dedicatedtrainingfordemandingoperators-  Frequentcontactforansweringques+ons-  Support+cketmechanismincaseofproblem

Freq

uentinterac+on

swith

SAP

PI

offlexopportuni;escapturedwithMachineLearning

ofrecommenda;onsConvertedintoac;ons

ofsavingsontheDAEnergyBill

80%

95%540k€

Flexibilitybeyondindustrialsites

E-Cloud:Op+mizedmicrogridsforindustrialparks

INTEREST:Op+mizedintegratedrenewableenergypowersta+onsincludingHydrogenandgreenmobility

EVFleetOpAmizer:Op+malchargingstrategyforEVfleetsbasedonSolarproduc+on,on-siteconstraintsandmarketincen+ves

Electricity Markets Integration

23

ElectricityProduc;oninGermanyMarch12-March182018

IntermisentRenewableElectricityProduc+onleadstoagrowingimportanceofimport/exportatEUlevel

LowRenewableProduc+oninGermanybutHighdemandèGermanyisimpor+ng

HighRenewableProduc+oninGermanybutLowdemandèGermanyisexpor+ng

Allover

Europe

tosolveUEmarket

couplingproblem

averagedailyvalueof

matchedtrades

OfsuccessfulcouplingforDAmarkets

2500daysofEuropeanMarketCouplingwithEuphemiaalgorithm

HORIZONTALINTEGRATIONEUPHEMIAMarketCouplingAlgorithmfor

EuropeanDAmarkets

23countries

10min200M€2500days

Accuraterepresenta+onofGridconstraints(ATC,Flow-based,etc)

MarketCujng-edgeOpAmizaAonalgorithmstosolve•  Large-scale(mul+-countries)•  Non-linear(complexnetwork

representa+on,complexmarketrules)•  Non-Convex(complexmarketproducts)…problemsinlimitedamountofAme

DESCRIPTIVEANALYTICS

PRESCRIPTIVEANALYTICS

Theytrustus

FromEuropeantoLocalMarkets

SmartNet:TSO/DSOCoordina+on

Magnitude:Mul+-energyMarketsintegra+on

P2PLocalElectricityMarkets

Dynamic Imbalance Risk Management

27

ElectricityProduc;oninGermanyMarch12-March182018

Therisksinthesystemsbecomesalsomorevariablesandneedstobecoveredbya«dynamicinsurance»

RiskofWindForecastError:riskofhavingmore/lesselectricitythanexpected(Symmetric?)

RiskofPVForecastError:riskofhavingmore/lesselectricitythanexpected(Symmetric?)

Riskofpowerplantoutage:riskofhavinglesselec.thanexpected RiskofHVDCcableoutage:

riskofhavingmoreelec.thanexpected(ifexpor+ng)

•  UncertaintyinPVandWindProduc+on•  UncertaintyinLoad

28

ForecastUncertainty FailureandOutage•  Forcedoutageofpowerplants•  Failuresinthegrid(e.g.storms)

WhatsizeofReserveisrequiredtocovertherisk?

WhyReserveSizing?

29

•  UncertaintyinRenewableProduc+onitselfdependsonD-1Forecastlevel

•  UncertaintyinLoadcandependonD-1expectedsystemstate

ForecastUncertainty FailureandOutage•  Riskofforcedoutageofpowerplants

dependsonDAMdispatch•  RiskofHVDCfailuresdependsonDAM

dispatch

Incen+vetosizeinadynamicwayinsteadofonayearlybasis

WhyDynamicReserveSizing?

99.9

%

relia

bilit

y30

DynamicDimensioningsupportedbyMachineLearningalgorithms…

CO

MPLEXITY

DISCRETEMAPPING “CONTINUOUSMAPPING”

“manualdesignofscenarios”

MachineLearningClustering(KMEANS)

MachineLearning:KNN

MachineLearning

Regression(ANN)

Feature 1

Feat

ure

2

Feature 1

Feat

ure

2

Feature 1

Feat

ure

2

31

…togenerategainsinreliability,volumesandrobustness

GaininRELIABILITY

SavingsofVOLUMES

GaininROBUSTNESS

Robustmethodologywhichremainsbeneficial&feasibletowardsthemiddleandlongtermsystemcondi+ons:•  Toward2020•  Aswellastowards2027

PosiAvebusinesscase:•  Volumereduc+onmore85%/Ame•  Financialgainsexpectedofmore2M

€/y(outweighingtheimplementa+oncosts)

AbemerreliabilitymanagementHigherFRRduringhigherriskperiods:properreliabilitysecuredmoreconstantlyalongtheyear

1100

1300

1500

1700

sta+c

0,0

50,0

100,0

UPWARD DOWNWARD

HighBMscenario2020 ReferenceCase2020

LowBMscenario2020 Post-Nuclear2027

Volumesavings

Study conducted for Belgium by ELIA with N-

SIDE support for Machine Learning aspects

AdvancedAnaly+csasakeyenableroftheenergytransi+on…

…anditisonlythebeginning!

…anditisonlythebeginning!

TheneedforstrongerAesbetweenacademiaandindustryisincreasing

•  Fundingbodiesarelookingforimpact•  Scien+ficjournalsaskforprac+calrelevance

•  Companiesfocusoncorebusiness•  Amountofdataavailableisincreasingexponen+ally

N-SIDEAvenueBaudouin1er,N°251348Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium

THANKYOU